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Picking cherries

Thu, Jan 30, 2014

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I’m routinely accused of cherry picking information about climate change. I plead guilty, with the following 1,000-word disclaimer.

I’ll start with a line from recently deceased professor emeritus and long-time teacher Albert Bartlett: “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” When I speak and write about climate change, most members of the audience are stuck in fifth grade, unaware that nature often exhibits non-linearity.

I pick cherries because I see nobody else connecting the dots on climate change. I see nobody else making an honest effort to describe our predicament. So, by default, I’m The Connector. I collate, summarize, and synthesize information about climate change. And in the process of serving as host for the finest reality show on the Internet, I connect people, too.

In return, I’m the dark-horse candidate for Golden Horseshoe liar of the year award. No, really: You can read all about it here. This planet has become so Orwellian that those who collate the facts and pass them along are hated as liars.

I see plenty of support for denying the obvious. Almost everybody reading these words has a vested interest in not wanting to think about climate change, which helps explain why the climate-change deniers have won. According to a December 2013 paper in Climatic Change, the climate change counter-movement is funded to the tune of nearly a billion dollars each year. That’s just in the United States, where we continue to brag about our prowess in destroying the living planet long after a few of us recognized the irony in the following advertisement from Life magazine in 1962. The story is similar in other countries.

humbleoilad

How obvious is ongoing climate change induced by anthropogenic global warming? If you’re unwilling to look outside, consider the following graph from Climate Central.

10 warmest years on record

And even as abnormal is the new normal, we’re just getting started. Bruce Melton, writing for Truthout in a 26 December 2013 piece featuring climate scientist Wallace Broeker, points out that “today we are operating on atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases from the 1970s. In the last 29 years we have emitted as many greenhouse gases as we emitted in the previous 236 years.” In other words, the four-decade lag between emissions of greenhouse gases and consequences of those emissions is not complete. But it’s on the way, and there is nothing to be done today to undo what we did during the last 40 years. And, as pointed out with numerous scientific articles at my comprehensive summary dating back to February 2003 from the folks at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, abrupt and dramatic changes in climate aren’t out of the question.

This knowledge brings with it horror and relief. I’m horrified by what’s to come, which includes the near-certainty of human extinction by 2030 as we surpass 4 C above baseline. I’m relieved to know that today’s consequences result from emissions dating to the 1970s, when I was excitedly learning to drive an automobile. I experience no teenage guilt from youthful, ignorant actions.

I recognize that collapse of industrial civilization leads to a world 2 C warmer than baseline within a few days post-collapse. Where I live, in the southwestern interior of a large continent in the northern hemisphere, that means we’re headed for ~5 C locally shortly after collapse is complete. And that means no habitat for humans: Welcome to the dust bowl that never ends within a matter of months post-collapse.

Yet, seemingly contrary to these simple, easy-to-reach conclusions, I work toward collapse. Largely unafflicted by the arrogance of humanism, I work on behalf of non-human species. Industrial civilization is destroying every aspect of the living planet, and I know virtually nobody who wants to stop the runaway train. Yes, collapse will kill us. But our deaths are guaranteed regardless, unless I missed a memo.

I’ve given up on civilized humans making any effort to take relevant action. Never mind our stunning myopia: The money to be made is clearly more important than the extinctions we cause, including our own.

As pointed out in March 2012 in Nature Climate Change, several psychological reasons explain why people have a hard time dealing with the stark reality of climate change (David Roberts comments at length in his article at Grist:

1. To the extent that climate change is an abstract concept, it is non intuitive and cognitively difficult to grasp.

2. Our moral judgement system is finely tuned to react to intentional transgressions — not unintentional ones.

3. Things that make us feel guilty provoke self-defensive mechanisms.

4. Uncertainty breeds wishful thinking, so the lack of definitive prognoses results in unreasonable optimism.

5. Our division into moral and political tribes generates ideological polarization; climate change becomes politicized.

6. Events do not seem urgent when they seem to be far away in time and space; out-group victims fall by the wayside.

At considerable risk of pummeling the dead equine, I’ll reiterate a couple paragraphs I pointed out before:

Leading mainstream outlets routinely lie to the public. According to a report published 11 January 2014, “the BBC has spent tens of thousands of pounds over six years trying to keep secret an extraordinary ‘eco’ conference which has shaped its coverage of global warming.” At the 2006 event, green activists and scientists — one of whom believes climate change is a bigger danger than global nuclear war — lectured 28 of the BBC’s most senior executives.

Mainstream scientists minimize the message at every turn. As we’ve known for years, scientists almost invariably underplay climate impacts. I’m not implying conspiracy among scientists. Science selects for conservatism. Academia selects for extreme conservatism. These folks are loathe to risk drawing undue attention to themselves by pointing out there might be a threat to civilization. Never mind the near-term threat to our entire species (they couldn’t care less about other species). If the truth is dire, they can find another, not-so-dire version. The concept is supported by an article in the February 2013 issue of Global Environmental Change pointing out that climate-change scientists routinely underestimate impacts “by erring on the side of least drama.”

In other words, science selects for conservatism (aka picking cherries long after they are ripe). Science, after all, is merely the process of elucidating the obvious. Climate-change scientists routinely underestimate impacts “by erring on the side of least drama” (aka looking for the cherries long after they’ve fallen off the tree, onto the ground, and been consumed by rodents).

The feedbacks are too numerous, the inertia too strong. We fired the clathrate gun by 2007 or earlier, coincident with crossing the point of no return for climate change. The corporate media and corporate governments of the world keep lying, and too few hold them accountable.

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This essay is permalinked at Seemorerocks, Speaking Truth to Power and Before It’s News.

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With an eye to improving my “bedside manner” when I deliver presentations, I’ve recently become a certified grief-recovery counselor. A brief summary of the program, which I learned about from a contact on Facebook, is here.

I was extremely impressed by the workshop. In fact, I told the facilitator it was about a thousand times better than I expected halfway through the first of four emotionally wrenching days. The facilitator was among the best teachers I’ve ever seen.

I learned about my own grief, and how to deal with it. I learned dealing with grief is a process that requires practice. I learned that some losses associated with individuals represent opportunities to move on from the relationship.

I have suffered many of the usual and customary losses typically associated with grief, along with a few others. Who knew there are more than 40 kinds of losses? These include moving, losing a job, divorce, death of a loved one, and many others. I suffered considerable grief when I left the university: the loss of ego, friends, and colleagues was enormous, as was the sudden inability to teach.

I also learned a little bit about helping others deal with their own grief. That in itself is a big deal for a left-brained, science geek. I recommend this workshop to almost anybody who is willing to put themselves into the position of eager, heart-wide-open student.

I’m still working through the tools I picked up at the workshop. I suspect the process will continue for a long time. Like, as long as I have.

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The latest video clip from filmmaker Pauline Schneider is embedded below. And below that, you can click to support her work.

Trailer #1 from Pauline Schneider on Vimeo

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Please limit yourself to two posts daily. Additional comments are welcome at the NBL Forum.

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Please join me in supporting our friend OzMan as he literally walks away. Click here for more information.

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Thursday, 6 February 2013, 7:00 p.m., West End Cultural Centre, 586 Illice Avenue at Sherbrook, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, “Straight Talk About Climate Change”

Thursday, 20 February 2014, 5:15 p.m., Singer room, Eugene Public Library, 100 West 10th Avenue, Eugene, Oregon, “Climate Chaos & Resistance to Ecocide: Talks by Guy McPherson and Deep Green Resistance”

Friday, 21 February 2104, 7:00 p.m., Vancouver Public Library, 901 C Street Vancouver, Washington, “Climate Chaos & Resistance to Ecocide: Talks by Guy McPherson and Deep Green Resistance”

Saturday, 22 February 2014, 7:00 p.m., Bellingham Public Library, 210 Central Avenue Bellingham, Washington, “Climate Chaos”

Monday, 24 February 2014, 7:00 p.m., Odd Fellows Hall, 112 Haven Road, Eastsound, Washington (on Orcas Island), “Climate Chaos”

Wednesday, 26 February 2014, 7:00 p.m., San Juan Island Library, 1010 Guard Street, Friday Harbor, Washington

Thursday, 27 February 2014, 7:00 p.m., location to be determined, Tacoma, Washington

The Next Step: Living Courageously in a World of Transition, a 7-day seminar, 24-31 May 2014, Moho Creek, Belize, Central America.

The Next Step: Living Courageously in a World of Transition, a 14-day seminar, 12-25 June 2014, Izabal, Guatemala, Central America.

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Going Dark is available from the publisher here, from Amazon here, from Amazon on Kindle here, from Barnes & Noble on Nook here, and as a Google e-book here. Going Dark was reviewed by Carolyn Baker at Speaking Truth to Power and by more than 15 readers at Amazon.

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157 Responses to “Picking cherries”

  1. Henry Says:

    “State of the Planet” from Guy — a much better speech than that other one.

    “Exponential”, meaning in this case self-reinforcing. The methane time bomb buried 200 or more million years ago, when the oxygen-based life forms supplanted the methane breathers.

    Who would have believed any warning based on such time horizons?

    What they also can’t get is time lags or overlaps, between cause and effect. They think everything lays out ahead of them, fresh for the taking.

  2. Grant Schreiber Says:

    As I’m sure you’re aware, while the attention is currently focuses on the people of Atlanta going into a panic over a minor amount of snow and the record breaking cold has hit many states in the South as well as the North, the arctic is unseasonably warm. But there aren’t any airports or banks or grocery stores on the arctic ice, so let’s not talk about it.

    It is tough speaking about NTE, and I certainly don’t go out of my way to talk about it to people because most would rather not know. I actually encountered a person who believes that while global warming is real, the threat of it is actually a trick by Satan to fool people into giving up their rights — apparently the right to drive cars is high on the devil’s hit list. There is no reason to talk to such a person. I did my best to drop the subject which he took as a win for him. I can’t worry about such things. Those that know and those that don’t know will all end up in the same grave soon enough.

    Keep on fighting. Keep on laughing. Keep on learning. And love it all.

  3. pmb Says:

    Guy,

    Thanks for this piece. Nice to see one by you on NBL after quite a spell.

    This piece felt like a bucket of cold water was poured over me. It reminds me why we are headed for NTE (Not that I need much reminder). Read the Golden Horseshoe blog and comments. Despite the loony weather we’re seeing over the last 12 months most of us don’t change or see any need to change. How often do people faint at the tennis open? How often has Rio gone without electricity in such heat. Hey, it’s as if humans have always had electricity or ipads.

    Remember the weather the weekend of Age of Limits. If you weren’t there imagine expecting Memorial Day beach weather and getting close to and maybe below freezing temps. And a rapid shift upwards probably 60 degrees in a couple o days. Don’t see you mentioned as returning. There seems to be no one to represent Climate this year.

    I’ll go off topic here if it’s okay:

    Having the guests has worked out well in providing a diverse range of voices (even if we don’t agree with them all). And with the forum we can open up dialogues outside the thread of the main blog. It’s not being used by many, but it’s still early in the game. Guess once we go over 400ppm and official reach a 1 degree C rise more and more people will be showing up here.

    Still sorry to have seen RE bolt like a skittish stallion. I had whiplash from his rapid entry and faster fleeing. He posted on the Forum recently I see so maybe he’s around here somewhere. Much appreciated his effort (and the others) who helped revise the website. To my tastes it navigates better than the Diner.

    Despite my belief in NTE I think the SUN project has merit. I’m sorry that the postings in the forum (which I think made valid points) haven’t been responded to. Much like the challenge laid by on Climate Change that u referred to.

    That grief grief-recovery counselor program looked intriguing. Can/would you write more about it? How did you find the program? What skills/tools/information did you get out of it? What did you learn that never occurred to you before? Where you satisfied with it? What were you not satisfied with?

  4. coyoteyogi Says:

    Any time anyone writes about a scientific subject they will be forced to “cherry pick” the studies that they reference. A classic example of exponential functions that follows the dictum that as an academic you either publish or perish, there is an ever expanding stream of scientific papers. No one could possibly read them all. There is the old saying (still functionally true) that a generalist learns less and less about more and more until eventually he knows nothing about everything, conversely a specialist learns more and more about less and less until he knows everything about nothing. It is rare and refreshing to find at NBL a site that attempts to bridge the gap. By surveying the literature and publishing/linking to those peer reviewed articles that illumine our predicament, Guy is performing a public service. How many hours are spent skimming those studies that are either too specialized or too myopic to merit reporting?
    I’m grateful for the cherry picking. It means I get to have a slice of cherry pie. Thanks Guy for the work you do.

  5. Godofredo Aravena Says:

    Guy

    Thanks for picking cherries.
    To see beyond has its costs.
    To lead has another additional costs.
    But once you are in the position, you can´t avoid the responsability.
    In the end, as John Lennon says in his song “Imagine”, “you are dreamer, but you are not the only one”. That is waht matters in the end.

    From 5 500 miles away, cheers

  6. Fee Bee Says:

    Thanks Guy for all the work you do.

  7. Gerald Spezio Says:

    It is easy to be very politically incorrect;

    Global heating & the increasingly probable extinction of humans in the near term is the most all encompassing event in history & it is NOT being reported.

    Is this not clear condemnation of the news business as propaganda & control from above?

    At the same time Israel, the U.S, & Britain completely devastate Iraqi society – turning a country of 24 million into a heap of rubble & waste.

    All based on carefully crafted lies & deceit.
    One million innocent Iraqis, mostly civilians, are literally murdered in cold blood.

    As I peck, Zionist/Israeli media screams for more murder & the devastation of the Iranian people.

    Lawyerfish Obama, Israel’s retained lawyer, tells us that we must stand with murdering Zionist Israel for more murder of innocents.

    Most of the world believes the carefully crafted HOLOHOAX that 6 million Jewish people were gassed & burned by evil Nazis.

    We are told that the evil Nazis gassed 6 million innocent Jews because the Nazis were consumed by antisemitism.

    This all causative German antisemitism was generated SPONTANEOUSLY, as in the spontaneous generation of maggots.

    Absolutely NO scientific material or physical evidence of any kind exists to substantiate such massive physical events.

    The sacred Auschwitz gas chambers & ovens are “recreations” because the retreating German supposedly successfully destroyed every shred of the foul gas chambers that supposedly exterminated millions.

    Try to find it!

    Not even a piece of concrete remained – AN IMPOSSIBLE ASSERTION.

    Every trace of the dead bodies were supposedly & successfully completely burned & turned to ashes without any graves or bones to prove the massive crime.

    NOT ONLY is there no scientific or forensic examination of the Holohoax’s critical gas chamber & ovens horror – it has become a crime punishable with jail in France, Germany, & five other countries, including Canada, to even “DOUBT” that anybody was ever gassed or burned in these mythical gas chambers.

    Spielberg propaganda movies ARE THE EVIDENCE – distorting history & the brains of billions of innocent people worldwide.
    The academic establishment is nefariously complicit in the massive hoax, especially historians, who perpetuate it as gospel.

    A sinister & massive program now delivers Holohoax “speakers” into public schools throughout Europe & the U.S.

    The sacred Holohoax – complete with gas chambers & ovens has become the new religion of Western Civilization.

    There are more than 240 Holohoax museums in the world.
    The U.S. has a NATIONAL HOLOHOAX museum In Washington D.C. funded at public expense along with other museums in major cities.

    Innocent school children are taken to these religious Holohoax shrines to worship.

    So, what is really new about climate catastrophe denial?

  8. BVinVT Says:

    Nice to see you posting on your own blog again, Guy!

    The Golden Horseshoe link is troubling — even those purporting to be in the know about AGW are willing to lash out, pick sides, and declare enemies (of the State?… of the human species?… of their inflated sense of self worth?), while denying the reality of published, peer-reviewed actual science.

    Hey, your prediction of 2030 may be off — it may not be until 2040 or 2050, but the end result is the same. Based on actual data from around the globe, we’re gonners. As my dad used to say, “dead’s dead, and finesse is for the undertaker”, except there won’t be any undertakers left either. The exact timing really doesn’t matter that much, although it sure would be nice to develop an exit plan for all the nuclear power plants — that one looks like a real trap, and will leave a fouled planet behind to screw up whatever life form might arise over the next few million years.

    The Humble Petroleum ad is absolutely priceless! Holy smokes, what irony, what humility (?), and what hubris!

  9. Artleads Says:

    Fine article indeed. Calm, elegant and systematic. Very best wishes with that film for Sundance!

    A slight quibble. I don’t see it as the arrogance of humanism, where the vast majority of people are concerned. They seem more to be following as best they can a program, set on high, based on custom and time. Beyond that, I see most people behaving simply as any animal would. As Leonardo wrote, animals, like humans, avoid death and cling to life instinctively. The problem with us is that we are too intelligent while also too unwise. I don’t expect most humans to care about animals more than themselves. We might have been better served by ditching some of the intelligence while acquiring more of the wisdom and real humanity of animals.

  10. Ert Says:

    Thanks Guy – learned a lot here and your climate change update is realy the best compilation I know about.

    As I am writing from Europe I was a little bit shocked to hear in the Gary Null Show 2 days ago, that the California water reservoirs are basically empty (lowest levels ever) and that the Mountains carry only approx. 20% of the normal snow. Also Mr. Null listed the percentage of fruits and vegetables that California produces for the US total consumption (for lots of the stuff >50% of US total production).

    I know from my drive through the plain valley what a political and big issue water is in California… and the whole thing doesn’t look good now globally. Even in Germany the last year was one of weather extremes.. first long freezing cold, then only rain, then a long dry summer and kind of a dry autumn…. and now barley sub-zero (C). Whenever the “polar-vortex” hits the US – we have it here very warm, so that I didn’t have the chance to ski this year – where I could it the last 10 years.

    Seeing the global dislocation I fear for a global synchronized “bad-weather” event, that hits the global food production all at once. We may see…. nevertheless I wish you all good + keep up the good work of connecting the dots!

  11. islandraider Says:

    Thanks Guy for the excellent essay. It is good to be reminded of the time lag between CO2 emissions and climate impacts. Given how quickly CO2 levels have increased over this time period, it is reasonable to expect some non-linearity in the response. Interesting times, indeed.

    This is not really surprising, but is very, very sad. From Common Dreams:

    ‘Insane, Disgusting’ and ‘Epic Treachery': NSA Spied on Climate Talks

    From the article:>>>>>

    “At the Copenhagen Climate Summit in 2009, the world’s nations were supposed to reach an agreement that would protect future generations against catastrophic climate change. But not everyone was playing by the rules. A leaked document now reveals that the US employed the NSA, its signals intelligence agency, to intercept information about other countries’ views on the climate negotiations before and during the summit. According to observers, the spying may have contributed to the Americans getting their way in the negotiations.”

    and

    “…the top secret “document suggests that the NSA’s [...] focus in relation to climate change was spying on other countries to collect intelligence that would support American interests, rather than preventing future climate catastrophes.””<<<<<

    http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2014/01/30-1

    For those that still hold some hope in their hearts that our "leaders" will fix the climate chaos problem, the answer is no. Not only no, but they will actively sabotage the genuine efforts of others.

  12. Derrick Foreman Says:

    Spot on Gerald!!! Nice to see someone question the Holocaust. As if everyone who questions the Holocaust is a Nazi…a Hater…a bigot. THE TRUTH DOES NOT FEAR INVESTIGATION!!

  13. Eddie Says:

    Thanks, Guy.

    Thanks for connecting the dots. Thanks for connecting the people.

    I fully understand the denial. It’s just damned hard for most people to understand that a huge catastrophic event lies around the corner…when the air is still more or less breathable, and you can still buy veggies from Argentina at the local corporate grocery store.

    I wish I understood better the likely scenarios for when and what it will be like when the desperate times are truly upon us. Sixteen years isn’t a long time. I guess I’ll know soon enough.

    pmb

    RE is still around. Several of us SUNsteaders are gathering at my place near Austin in April. Please join us if you can, or read about it on the SUN page. Right now the non-profit status of SUN remains mired in bureaucratic delays. Meantime, several of us are going to spend a week learning as much as we can from the dome builders at Monolithic Domes.

    After his last foray here, I suggested to RE that perhaps we might lead by example rather than argue the fine points on exactly what day the world is going to end. So far he’s demonstrated more restraint than I’d have ever thought possible.

  14. Manuel Alvarez Says:

    Spezio,

    It’s obscene to equate anthropogenic climate change denial with the belief (which happens to be empirically supported) that Nazi Germany systematically exterminated millions of Jews.

    Not all counter-establishment claims are equal.

    If you have any doubts that the Germans murdered millions of Jews during WWII, consider that in 1939 Hitler personally sanctioned the T4 Program, which murdered over 70,000 handicapped and elderly people (mostly Germans). Among the methods used for these so called “mercy killings” was to gas the victims, either in trucks of other facilities!

  15. Derrick Foreman Says:

    Just like to say thanks to Guy for his continued effort to try and educate an apathetic brain dead society. Really enjoyed your lecture at the 2012 bioneers conference..Brilliant! You should give stand up comedy a try! Cheers!!

  16. logspirit Says:

    The implosion of life takes away the expected ground below the next foot step. We have always had a fundamental, assumed, unquestioned faith that the ground of reality will always be there for us. A solid pavement, bedrock. It is the ultimate faith in the most solid thing we’ve ever had – a fairly reasonable expectation of the moment to moment continuity of reality. The sun will rise tomorrow. The arrow won’t suddenly vanish in mid flight. A basic belief that a future, if not for ourselves personally, at least for life in general, and ordinary human life, social life, family life, work, affection, doing, being – will exist. About to fall, we’re oblivious, off balance, falling forward casually in the normal way of walking, simply gliding along, distracted, thinking of other things. Caught up in a freeze frame snapshot mid-step, in the middle of the dazed daydream… in rush and anxiety, punctuated by occasional joy and reward, mostly half asleep… we just walk. Getting home after a long day… to a familiar place, perhaps a familiar face, a familiar chair. Keeping old photographs before our eyes as blinders against any upsetting speculative fears of the future – Oh, it will surely come, for sure. Its silly to pull on the river, don’t you know, surely it will come all by itself, surely. There’s more river to come. There’s always been more river to come. The past gets fuzzier as it flows away, but becomes closer and ever more familiar through endless reinterpretations. The present is a contrived and confusing observation/interpretation – we’re burning but we don’t feel the pain… that’s given, forwarded off, to the future. The future is the next step, full weight touching down… (now we know) onto and into nothing. The bedrock isn’t there anymore.

    [Hmmm... didn't Fred & Wilma Flintstone and their buddies the Rubbles live in the Town of Bedrock?]

  17. PMB Says:

    @eddie,

    Thanks for the heads up and the update about the status of the Not For Profit. Having created a few 5013s and done bookkeeping for those type of organizations I know the hoops that have to jumped through.

    My life partner and I read through the prospectus. I was writing up our analysis as it’s something we are interested in. Something we tried to do on our own numerous times over the last decade and we’d like to offer our experience to the project.

    Actually I wasn’t sure where to post these feedbacks. The SUN portion of the Diner forum doesn’t seem very active or I didn’t see much activity regarding interchange about the project. I had intended to post here at the NBL Forum and then contact RE or Hanniel or WHD at his site.

    I’m a believer in NTE, don’t really want to get into fruitless debates or arguments about the topic. I’m willing to discuss why I’ve come to these conclusions. I just don’t want to be convinced to be different. Spent too many years having the same “argument” with people telling me I just didn’t give women a chance. I should have said and do now that they just didn’t give same sex coupling a chance. Hey it would have kept the population from growing at one point; today we homos no longer have that big stick to walk with.

    Actually in the full speech of Chief Lyons he talks about the value of leaders being people who don’t have children or a family. They can focus on being a leader without sacrificing the needs of the family. I don’t know if Lyons was including gay and lesbians in that talking point; yet it fits for people who are single or married without offspring.

    Yet, SUN is something worthwhile to spend the last remaining years of my life on and be proud of. It may succeed (whatever that may mean) or not wind up looking as envisioned.

    The Texas workshop looked exciting. Unfortunately monetary issues have been a challenge for a while now. I hope you’ll write up how the experience goes.

  18. Eddie Says:

    pmb

    We need your input and the benefit of your experience. Not all the threads having to do with SUN on the Diner are public. I would suggest you log in and send your feedback to RE directly in a PM. If you aren’t registered, you could place your info in a new topic post on the Kitchen Sink, which allows visitors to post. (I think that’s right.)

    The SUN page is new to me too, and I’m just getting my feet wet on how to post there myself. But comments there are read. Just not many visitors at this point. I usually cross-post my occasional stuff about solar PV, wind power, gardening, permaculture projects, and the like to SUN now. Comments are appreciated.

  19. Lidia Says:

    Excellent post, Guy, although I am skeptical about the Grief Industry®™.

    “We’ll refer grievers to you!”

    Because God forbid you should experience a dearth of grievers… Oy veh.

  20. Guy McPherson Says:

    Thanks for your questions, pmb. I responded within the revised post, and I’m copying below.

    I was extremely impressed by the workshop. In fact, I told the facilitator it was about a thousand times better than I expected halfway through the first of four emotionally wrenching days. The facilitator was among the best teachers I’ve ever seen.

    I learned about my own grief, and how to deal with it. I learned dealing with grief is a process that requires practice. I learned that some losses associated with individuals represent opportunities to move on from the relationship.

    I have suffered many of the usual and customary losses typically associated with grief, along with a few others. Who knew there are more than 40 kinds of losses? These include moving, losing a job, divorce, death of a loved one, and many others. I suffered considerable grief when I left the university: the loss of ego, friends, and colleagues was enormous, as was the sudden inability to teach.

    I also learned a little bit about helping others deal with their own grief. That in itself is a big deal for a left-brained, science geek. I recommend this workshop to almost anybody who is willing to put themselves into the position of eager, heart-wide-open student.

    I’m still working through the tools I picked up at the workshop. I suspect the process will continue for a long time. Like, as long as I have.

  21. William Says:

    I’ve considered talking about how often you cite unsupported web pages as a form of criticism but the sad truth is everyone brings their own bias to each conversation, even academic peer reviewed journal articles. Articles are selectively published and even scientists are subject to these bias’s means that often the infomation that is the least biased factual data doesn’t see the light of day other than on counter culture web sites.

    The case in point would be Tim Garrets research which you link to in your Climate change summary. (which by the way, I can’t access the link to his work stored on the university servers)

    The reason I haven’t said anything until now is because all of my observations really confirm your thesis. I’d be attacking the messenger not the message, and all for a really pointless reason. Even if I did, how would I know I’m not biased myself.

    Sigh. Keep doing what you are doing, it is appreciated and admired.

  22. W. R. Flynn Says:

    Bravo! You have truly magical way with words.

    (And thanks, also, for being easy on the edit button and allowing a voice to all perspectives. That speaks well about your generosity and grace.)

  23. ulvfugl Says:

    Re Spezio’s and other remarks re the Holocaust.

    That’s not the only bit of history that is, erm, controversial.

    A secret history of the United States government’s Nazi-hunting operation concludes that American intelligence officials created a “safe haven” in the United States for Nazis and their collaborators after World War II, and it details decades of clashes, often hidden, with other nations over war criminals here and abroad.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/14/us/14nazis.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&

    But the reality is that all of history is like this, starting from what happened last week, to what happened in ancient Egypt or China thousands of years ago. Sometimes there is no evidence, or little evidence, and what there is can be interpreted in many different ways.

    People do cherry pick to fit the story that they prefer.

    This is a very big problem that we ALL have to face. When Guy points to the vast amounts of money being covertly spent to influence public opinion re denial of the science, I think it’s actually much worse than that. Our whole conception of what the world is, what we are, what life is, has been captured by the corporate media machine and state education which manufactures a completely faked reality.

    What we are presented with is a faked past and a faked future, and a faked present. The fact that the dots are never connected is deliberate. Everything must be kept fragmented and incoherent to keep the world’s ‘peasants’ confused and amused because they must not understand their situation.

    TV is perfect, with it’s 2 minute meaningless sound bites and unconnected flashing imagery. There are no stories, in the traditional sense, any more, of what’s happening in the real world. Just fragments, like pieces of a shattering window carrying random reflections.

    The people running the NSA, and no doubt similar agencies, can watch the popularity of ideas and stories spreading around the world in real time.

    I mean, Tesco, where I get my food, can watch the popularity of a particular colour of package and a particular flavour of soup, as it’s been leaving the shelves across the country, through the day. You know, they can shift all the packs six inches left, or make the orange label a bit darker, or tweak the stuff in a zillion ways and watch what happens.

    They know how much money people have at 10 am on Tuesday compared with 3 pm on Thursday, for example, and adjust prices to match. They know the ages and tastes of percentages of their customers and how they arrive at the stores and how long they are there for and how far they walk and how often they pick things up and put them down again and what effect the music has and the air temperature and every damn thing.
    To maximise purchases and profits.

    TPTB can do the same. To maximise compliance and control. Stories and counter-stories.

    I posted the quote from RC on the previous thread

    http://guymcpherson.com/2014/01/achieving-wisdom-how-to-seek-out-truth/#comment-117540

    Why is there no reply, no response ? It’s a technical scientific question that was addressed to them.

    We can guess, we can draw conclusions. They KNOW the answers. But they will not give them.

  24. Apneaman Says:

    Keep on picking them cherries connecting them dots Guy. I believe your work is helping people prepare for the very worst. True, were all done, but I can easily think of many things parents can do to make their kids last years and days and moments less scary.

    I have seen your critics on various web sites, but I’ve seen many, myself included, defend you.

    Your the Darwin of Doom Guy, and were your pack of Huxley’s.
    WOFF WOFF WOFF

  25. Jersey Patriot Says:

    I’m horrified by what’s to come, which includes the near-certainty of human extinction by 2030 as we surpass 4 C above baseline.

    Your link to Carana shows one chart with a “runaway global warming” line, showing a 4C rise by 2030. There’s no explanation of either the physics or the math behind the line. What is the projected forcing? What are the expected GHG levels? Is this a climate modeling run? I poked around his blogs to see if he had explained his curves and didn’t see it.

    Chances seem pretty good he picked a number out of hat and drew a curve to meet it. This isn’t science.

  26. Guy McPherson Says:

    Jersey Patriot, Carana’s work is based on one of the thirty self-reinforcing feedback loops described here. Specifically, he’s addressing the clathrate gun, which was fired in 2007.

  27. Artleads Says:

    “TPTB can do the same. To maximise compliance and control. Stories and counter-stories.”

    I was struck by the narrative above this, since my partner works in a retail store, and actually moves those packages to the left. I asked her what she thought of the description, surprised that she didn’t disagree. Every similar business does this through their research departments, she implied. She is clear that *she* and her immediate supervisors don’t make those kinds of decisions. So, IMO, what is being done is somewhat banal and “customary.” Just saying it’s been around a pretty long time, although there are far better tools of surveillance and control today.

    It also seems that there is no daylight between industry and TPTB. Groups like ALEC see to that.

  28. cosec00 Says:

    Excellent essay Guy. While reading this a line from an Anna Nalick song “Breathe”: “life’s like an hourglass, glued to the table. No one can find the rewind button”

  29. margarets Says:

    Guy, how much did you research that grief workshop before you took it? The therapy industry is overrun with hucksters selling certifications that are worthless, except as marketing fodder for therapists seeking new niches. There are many therapists with certifications in *dozens* of methods, topics, etc – all of them long-weekend seminar-ish things. It’s not proper counselor training and loads of therapists misuse what they learn or toss it into their own “eclectic” (i.e. no standards) approach. This often has very serious consequences for their clients.

    One of the telltale signs of bogus counselor training is that everyone who pays the fee gets the certificate. There are no rigorous tests or interviews to pass or fail. They probably don’t even take attendance at these things.

    The grief counseling course you took seems a bit suss to me, and I think associating yourself with it undermines your credibility.

    Just my two cents.

    (You may have gotten some good ideas from the course but I’ll bet you could have found them on your own in books, etc.)

  30. RE Says:

    Still sorry to have seen RE bolt like a skittish stallion. I had whiplash from his rapid entry and faster fleeing. He posted on the Forum recently I see so maybe he’s around here somewhere. Much appreciated his effort (and the others) who helped revise the website. To my tastes it navigates better than the Diner.

    Despite my belief in NTE I think the SUN project has merit. I’m sorry that the postings in the forum (which I think made valid points) haven’t been responded to. Much like the challenge laid by on Climate Change that u referred to.-PMB

    I take issue with the “Skittish Stallion” label. :P

    I went Walkabout because it was devolving here into accusations that because we fixed up the tech end of NBL, we were “Taking Over” the website, which we have no intention of doing.  So I left you all alone for a while to Hospice in your Grief Party here.

    You will be pleased to know I did not go on a Permanent Vacation. :D  I dropped on a couple of articles which Guy will publish over the next couple of weeks, so you will most certainly get a piece of my mind here, since I never drop on an article anywhere without dropping in the commentary to defend it.

    Far as better navigation here than the Diner, that is a matter of taste and of what you design the commentary system to do.  I run a much more diverse website than this one, we cover many more topics.  To make that navigable, it takes some more complexity.  This site is for the most part very linear, though the SMF is there now for additional commentary and other subjects of interest.

    In any event, I am BACK.  Take Cover.  LOL.

    http://markosun.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/poltergeist.jpg

    RE

  31. RE Says:

    The Texas workshop looked exciting. Unfortunately monetary issues have been a challenge for a while now. I hope you’ll write up how the experience goes.-PMB

    We will be doing a good deal more than Writing it Up, though since most of us have serious Diahreah of the Keyboard, there will likely come numerous Blogs out of this meeting/workshop.

    However, beyond that, as most of you probably realize by now, I’m a Web Geek Tech NUT.  We will bring to bear all the Tech Wizardry we can muster up here for this Conference.  We will be bringing cameras and our own portable net links; we will run Livestream Meetings with both On Site Diners and Web Followers and I have permission to Video at the Monolithic Course itself as well.  This will all go up LIVE or nearly live on the Diner.

    After that, myself and a few other Diners should be attending the Age of Limits conference, and we will pull off similar stunts there.  Albert Bates and I have been conversing a good deal, and I will chat in depth with him at that Conference as well.

    So, even if you cannot make it In Person, we still got the Web running here, and for so long as it does, the Web Heads at the Doomstead Diner will bring the Unexpurgated DOOM to you via Soundcloud for Podcasts, You Tube for Vids and Google+ Hangouts for Live Meetings around the World.  We have affiliates now in from Oz to Jolly Old England.

    Come Join the Party on the Web if you cannot make it IRL.

    RE

  32. FriedrichKling Says:

    Hey Manuel Alvarez,

    Shut the fuck up with the anti-Germans diatribe. Using your logic, the Spanish butchered millions of Native Mexican, Central, and South American people; however, we do not say the Spanish, but instead the conquistadores.

    Your sloppiness is a personal insult.

  33. FriedrichKling Says:

    So how exactly do I make a donation to the documentary project outlined above?

  34. ulvfugl Says:

    @ FKLING

    Shut the fuck up with the anti-Germans diatribe.

    It was an accurate historical account. Or do you have evidence to the contrary ?

    Your sloppiness is a personal insult.

    I thought you are a fucking American, Friedrich. If you’re a German, wtf were you doing fighting the Vietnamese ? Don’t recall Viet Cong attacking Deutschland. Did I miss something ? Or perhaps I got your story wrong, perhaps you were there selling them insurance policies ? No doubt you will clarify the matter for me.

  35. Tom Says:

    After a long night and all day of figuring out that my modem died and going through the replacement steps of procuring one from the limited number of places that have them and finally installing the piece, i’m back. Huge thanks to my wife who guided me through the extensive phone calling to “git er done,” did the running around after work to pick up the electronic widget, and finally having the patience to install it after working all day – then feeding me afterward!

    Guy: thanks for this latest posting. I scour the sites for your input, videos, podcasts and thoughts and refer people to this site often. You condense more truth in 1000 words than all the deniers in all their publications. Thanks for remaining strong in the face of all this resistance, denial and lack of mitigating action by TPTB. You’re the voice of reason in an unreasonable world.

    ulvfugl: great synopsis in your 5:44 post. It’s all marketing and “creating the need.” The entire façade of civilization is a grand hoax: from birth to death the ‘ownership class’ have it all corralled. We’re fed bullshit and fantasies – reinforced by culture (this in every land) to keep the charade going. And here’s the best part – they get us to LIKE it, to go through the motions of “holidays” without question, continually buy the latest version of the very tool(s) that keeps us mesmerized – like this damn computer I wanted to throw out the window! It’s leading us nowhere and keeps making them more and more fiat currency (it isn’t “wealth” – that term is a misnomer in my opinion). No wonder it’s so hard to center ones self in quiet reflection – it’s almost impossible to find any place that’s actually quiet any more and people can’t stand to be ‘out of touch’ (as cell phone usage indicates). Isn’t that the most comical term? When are we ever in touch with our reality? It starts when we’re infants and doesn’t ever let up. One has to do real work to get away from it all.

    RE: welcome back and thanks again for the upgrades and tweaking. Seems to be working fairly well now. I can’t wait to hear your podcasts (I’ve listened to many on the Diner) on the Age of Limits.
    Keep up the good work – it’s appreciated.

    I missed so many stories and so much evidence yesterday that it’s unbelievable how fast the pace of collapse is picking up.

    Robert Scribbler’s been killing it lately with his posts. This one, from this morning examines the train of storms battering England, that, like the Arctic blasts here from the Midwest to the east coast of the U.S., just wouldn’t let up. [check it out]

    https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/01/31/north-atlantic-ramping-up-to-storms-of-my-grandchildren-to-set-off-epic-flood-event-for-storm-ravaged-england/

    Under the ongoing insults of human-caused climate change, the North Atlantic is ground zero for the potential development of the worst storms humankind has ever experienced. And indications are that the ramping up to this dangerous time may well be starting now.

    The temperature related weather instabilities between the warming North Atlantic, the melting but still frigid ice packs of Greenland, the retreating polar sea ice, a continental North America enduring a series of polar vortex collapse events flushing cold air south as the Arctic experiences its warmest readings in an age, and an interior Europe and Asia that are also experiencing mass migrations of cold air fleeing the ever-warmer Arctic are just screaming.

    A bite of warm air and related warm ocean water has flooded a large region between Scandinavia, Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya, making its home where winter sea ice once resided. The waters near Greenland are now melt-cooled by the 500 gigatons of average annual glacial outflow occurring there. And the never-ending influx and concentration of heat in the Arctic has set the Jet Stream into a fit of wild loops and whirls.

    All these changes result in a high degree of weather instability, in a setting off of extreme weather events, of great switches from cool, to extreme hot, from record drought to record deluge. In the past few years we’ve seen these kinds of extreme weather events occur with increasing frequency. But now, a new kind of extreme event is beginning to emerge, a kind of event that may well be prelude to ‘The Storms of My Grandchildren’ Dr James Hansen alluded to in his prescient book examining the ultimate consequences of an ongoing and devastating human greenhouse gas emission.

  36. dairymandave Says:

    Forecast: America to be hit by temperatures as low as minus 40 degrees

    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

    Sam says this situation is “unacceptable”. Sounds like Big Ag when they imply that we need to “tame” this Motherfucker, I mean Mother Nature.

  37. Guy McPherson Says:

    margarets, I lauded a workshop I attended. You chose to disparage a workshop and method about which you know nothing. I’ve no need or interest in arguing with you about this topic because you’re ignorant about it.

    FriedrichKling, click the icon to support Pauline’s film.

  38. Artleads Says:

    ” As the image on the right illustrates, the once-common temperature difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes has been shattered, and this is weakening the Jet Stream and the Polar Vortex, in turn making it easier for cold air to flow down to lower latitudes and for warmer air to enter the Arctic…”

    Thanks, DMD. The little quote above from the link is so simple that anyone anywhere should be able to understand it. If we insist that they understand a whole lot more initially, it might backfire.

  39. Artleads Says:

    @ Tom

    “ulvfugl: great synopsis in your 5:44 post. It’s all marketing and “creating the need.” The entire façade of civilization is a grand hoax: from birth to death the ‘ownership class’ have it all corralled. We’re fed bullshit and fantasies – reinforced by culture (this in every land) to keep the charade going. And here’s the best part – they get us to LIKE it, to go through the motions of “holidays” without question, continually buy the latest version of the very tool(s) that keeps us mesmerized – like this damn computer I wanted to throw out the window! It’s leading us nowhere and keeps making them more and more fiat currency (it isn’t “wealth” – that term is a misnomer in my opinion). No wonder it’s so hard to center ones self in quiet reflection – it’s almost impossible to find any place that’s actually quiet any more and people can’t stand to be ‘out of touch’ (as cell phone usage indicates). Isn’t that the most comical term? When are we ever in touch with our reality? It starts when we’re infants and doesn’t ever let up. One has to do real work to get away from it all.”

    I, too, think this was getting to the heart of the matter.

    RE,

    Glad to see you back. Being the anti-tech geek of them all, I relish being within range of skills such as yours. Also, I like your general take on things, and your ability to defend it. As to being napalmed, you’ll continue to be. Pay it no mind. You haven’t *seen* napalmed… I have. :-)

  40. mt Says:

    The only way to NOT see the climate changes due to AGW is to not WANT to see.

  41. BenjaminTheDonkey Says:

    Different Strokes for Different Folks

    With the world getting ready to tank,
    Which therapy’s best? Let’s be frank:
    Like most of doom chatter,
    It won’t really matter,
    But all of them seem to make bank.

  42. Librarian Says:

    I don’t think Holocaust deniers are bigots, but I also don’t think it’s relevant whether or not they’re bigots. The Germans themselves acknowledge the Holocaust happened; their own country has set up dozens of memorials to the event and they’ve even kept the camp sites open as a reminder of the horrors.

    The truth may not fear investigation, but that assumes you’re doing enough investigation.

  43. Librarian Says:

    That and I have a great-aunt and cousins who were killed during the Holocaust, so please understand if I am a bit disinclined to believe your claims because you tell me your claims are the truth.

  44. Robin Datta Says:

    The trouble with NBL’s cherry picking is that it is not the industrial method. Only a handful of the juiciest cherries are picked – and offered. Not quite kosher for BAU.

  45. Jersey Patriot Says:

    Jersey Patriot, Carana’s work is based on one of the thirty self-reinforcing feedback loops described here. Specifically, he’s addressing the clathrate gun, which was fired in 2007.

    It’s true that Arctic methane emissions are increasing, but there are several sources of Arctic methane besides clathrates. The most important other source is permafrost. It’s not clear whether the methane increases are coming from melting permafrost or melting clathrates. Since the clathrates are quite a bit deeper than the permafrost, and so more difficult to warm, it seems more likely that the permafrost is melting than the clathrates. Additionally, methane concentration has been rising since 2000, after being flat through the 90s, but the rise is still slower than during the 1850-1990 timeframe.

    Methane emissions are obviously a serious problem, but a 4C rise by 2030? That would be a 3.25C rise in the next 16 years, ten times faster than the current 0.2C/decade rise. That’s an extraordinary amount of extra heat that the Earth must retain, and I don’t see a mechanism in place to do it.

    As for Carana’s work, do you have a link to how he decided to draw the graph? I don’t see any analysis of the climate physics or the math behind his graph: no climate modeling, forcing calculations, emissions projections, etc. Without any of that, it’s just a pretty curve.

  46. Henry Says:

    Gerald — You’ve inspired me to finally locate the post that Kirk or Grant linked for us last year:

    http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/08/the-15-rules-of-internet-disinformation.html

  47. Martin Says:

    I have read the Planet 3.0 post about Guy. It dovetails somewhat with JMG’s latest post, in so far as Guy’s position is “doom du jour.” I will have to look more closely at Michael Tobis’s blog, which I have not seen before.

    Is Tobis right to suggest Guy’s reading of the science is “misinformation,” or is it just bad science? I’ve always considered Guy’s motives to be unimpeachable, but I guess that makes me a follower. Guy should be so lucky.

    It’s not the science, it’s not the denialists, the hopium junkies, the 2030 date. It’s not the ghettoisation of climate science activists, it’s not JMG’s tendency to pomposity :)

    it’s, it’s the general trajectory of the human experiment. I was shaken by the account of the killing of the dolphins a few days ago. It was said that a mother submerged and drowned herself when her calf was taken from her. The Japanese say it’s tradition. Wilhelm Reich would say, “Listen, Little Man! Do you see what you are?”

  48. Librarian Says:

    Thanks for the heads-up, Martin. I probably shouldn’t have checked JMG’s “latest post” that you mentioned, but I did despite myself.

    You know, JMG’s been known to accuse other people of being unable to tolerate any honest disagreement coming from JMG.

    And what has been JMG’s major theme along? That everyone who disagrees with him has a psychological defect of some kind and has ulterior motives for what they claim.

    And this coming from someone who has a message on his blog saying he won’t accept trolls because he wants to do everything he can to hold onto old-fashioned “polite discourse”. I wasn’t aware that polite gentlemen would call others “fanboys” or repeatedly compare his opponents to addicts, to children, or to cowards.

    Then again, he’s a student of Edmund Burke, One-Way Criticism Extraordinaire, so I shouldn’t be surprised.

  49. Guy McPherson Says:

    Jersey Patriot, why do you question a 3.25 C rise within 16 years? Please read this essay for multiple sources indicating much more rapid increases in shorter periods of time. All those occurred without human influence.

  50. Robin Datta Says:

    The Japanese say it’s tradition.

    Trouble is, sclerotic traditions can be quite maladaptive with changing circumstances. It is their tradition to constantly lie through their teeth. They must have dropped the basic premises of Buddhist ethics, including “not lying” somewhere along the way, in spite of Aitken Roshi’s The Mind of Clover. Maybe they could write a book on The Zen of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Or of Fukushima for that matter. There are plaques in the mountains adjacent Fuke telling them not to build below that level. Did they care? Not one bit. It’s their tradition.

  51. margarets Says:

    Guy, all I actually said about your specific workshop was that it looked “a bit suss” to me. The rest of my comment was about the sorry state of counselor training and certification in general. I expect you haven’t had time to research that whole issue, which is fine, but it’s something to be aware of.

    I checked out the Grief Recovery Institute’s offerings in my area. I still see red flags, e.g. there do not appear to be any entry prerequisites whatsoever, such as a counseling license or registration, or a particular educational attainment in the field. Can four days’ training really be enough to help people cope with trauma like grief?

    The fact that you found the training “emotionally wrenching” is another red flag. Were you advised in advance that it could be like that? Did you sign any kind of informed consent document? What services or resources were available on-site for people who couldn’t handle it? Putting people through an intense emotional experience is a common tactic of all kinds of dodgy life-coaching, personal fulfillment etc seminars (and even some cults – I know you do not want to hear that). It’s used to make people think the experience/training was worth the money, so they take more courses or buy more books, recommend it to their friends and so on. Consider this: they probably could have taught the information and methods *without* the emotional intensity, so why include it?

    (Almost done.) I’m saying all this as a sort of heads-up. Of course you are free to write it and me off. Or you might look into the issue. You might end up re-considering how closely you want to be associated with the certification racket. Maybe *more* closely will be your ultimate decision. But wouldn’t you want to know, either way?

    That’s the last I’ll say on the subject.

  52. Guy McPherson Says:

    From margarets: “Guy, all I actually said about your specific workshop was that it looked ‘a bit suss’ to me.”

    But you implied much more, painting with a broad and ignorant brush. I responded politely and professionally, and you came back with more ill-informed criticism.

    From margarets: “That’s the last I’ll say on the subject.”

    Promises, promises.

    I’m a skeptic. This workshop was a life-changing experience for me. I’ll not use it to make money, but rather to improve my life and, with a little luck, the lives of others. Ignorantly disparage all you want. At this point, I’d expect nothing else.

  53. Tom Says:

    Jersey:

    Besides the 30 (and counting, the year’s just started) self-reinforcing feedbacks that the methane graph leaves out, there’s Fukushima which is killing the Pacific Ocean and will probably wipe us out too before much longer (watch as the cancer rates and number of deformed infants, animals and plants begins to rise substantially over that same time period), melting permafrost (that you mentioned) and the increased CO2 we’ve dumped into the system every year(remember the 30 – 40 year lag between emissions and effect, so we’ll be moving into the CO2 of the 1980’s soon, with all the rest piled up to insure our demise), dying trees all over the globe, hydrogen sulfide spewing from practically every water source and causing explosions and fire daily (not to mention all the people of all ages keeling over) and i’m probably leaving some out, but I don’t see anyone being alive beyond the 2020’s.

    This is just my opinion, but by 2019 everyone left on the planet will know what’s going on (that we’re toast) because it won’t ever be getting any easier to live or grow crops or even breathe in some places. Remember, the extra heat makes for weird weather – so monstrous snow storms that last for months can’t be ruled out, or wild swings in temperature (which Paul Beckwith says is destroying infrastructure like rail lines, pipelines, bridges, etc.) and we’ve seen peer-reviewed papers attesting to the possibility abrupt climate change lasting decades. 3.25 over 16 years isn’t even close to what i’m expecting. If the grid goes down for any extended length due to any of the above (notice I didn’t mention increased volcanos and violent superstorms, which are also caused by climate change), we’ve got all the nuke plants on the planet going Fuk on us.

    just my two cents

  54. pauline Says:

    Is there a way to block or ban permanently Gerald Spezio?
    I would highly recommend doing so….

  55. pauline Says:

    @Margaret,
    I am the daughter of a 24 years now deceased counselor to adult children of alcoholics.
    She NEVER went to support group when she had cancer and her ensuing mastectomy.
    She NEVER admitted she was dying to the day she died. She took important information with her to the grave… She lived a life of denial… With a therapist’s credentials.
    I don’t think having a background in any kind of so called counseling makes any difference to a person who is open and willing to learn for himself/herself and to heal and then to share that with others who want to heal…. I think the GRM folks recognize this and are doing a great service for people who don’t have the “ideal” creds that other long, drawn out, expensive programs “offer”. You do realize that college is a scam, right?

    I am, like my mother was, a teacher of young humans, a person who has taken many self improvement courses, family therapy courses and workshops, not to mention participating in the greatest schooling of all, life and parenting.
    I was also at the Grief workshop and found it not only helpful for me, but for the people I counsel as a mom, a teacher and an ordained minister.
    I did not need to have any degree in psychology or counseling to be able to feel my feelings or revisit my losses, and learn to heal from them. It’s sad you think people need to pay $$$ and waste years of their lives on a broken system so that they can find healing for themselves and others…
    My Masters in Education was a waste enough of my time. It did me no good.

    The workshop was incredibly respectful, patient, safe and confidential. The process was genuine and very educational, as well as therapeutic. Healing is not an intellectual process, instead it is an emotional journey…
    I found the acceptance of our human emotions as GOOD, not bad or scary, a refreshing change from the American syndrome of “let’s pretend we’re happy and use drugs and not cry!”. I think for you to see “strong emotions” as a “red flag” is disheartening and symptomatic of a malecentric society terrified of seeing people being sad, or genuinely angry (not road rage), and scared of embracing their very real grief from the many losses we face as humans in a perverted patriarchal world… Such a sick culture breeds bullies and addicts. And denialists…
    Look around.

    I think too many people make knee jerk assumptions based on what the patriarchal system says is OK or within so called, normal parameters. It’s like when people criticize women for using a midwife rather than a butcher, er, I mean Doctor.
    Making assumptions on something you were not privy to is the first step to ignorance.
    Asking and listening is what therapists do.
    Drawing information out of people with compassion and LISTENING works miracles.
    I highly recommend you try it.

    And you might try the Grief Recovery Method.
    It teaches how to listen… A very important skill.

  56. Lidia Says:

    Pauline, I agree with some of what you say, but I’ve also seen the processes margarets describes at work close-hand. The Forum(R)(TM) and other est-like “work” that’s really just a big MLM/pyramid scheme.

    If certification is bullshit (which I agree that it is, to a large extent… it’s dis-empowering, to use Illich’s terminology), then why do the Grief (R)(TM) people sell certifications? Why do they need trademarks and copyrights?

    I always maintained that psychologists were basically paid friends. It’s certainly too bad that a lot of us don’t have REAL friends or real communities that can support us in hard times and grief, hence the need to turn to strangers with a “method”. That’s how I see it. Just a symptom of the larger problem. Need food? Go to the store. Need Grief Recovery(TM)? Call 1-800, etc.

    I don’t want to get down on you or on Guy because you are only human, but be aware that cultish stuff is very easy to pull over on people. I just wrote about it over at the NBL forum. It was happening before my eyes, a COMPLETE manipulation of a room of 50+ people! It’s shocking, and scary. And there will be some who are well-meaning but an ever-growing number of the predatory.

    The event I attended yesterday also followed the pattern of breaking people down so that they were feeling rotten (the film), and so then the carrot (“singing can save the planet”) seemed incredibly palatable and pretty much everyone in the room went for it, all agreeing that what we needed to do in response to climate change was hold a community sing-along. It was eerie. We ask ourselves how the Fascists could take over Europe. It’s beyond easy.

  57. Robin Datta Says:

    Grief counselling? How about animal husbandry? As in a pair o’ bulls about a missing mustard seed.

  58. RE Says:

    p>Glad to see you back. Being the anti-tech geek of them all, I relish being within range of skills such as yours. Also, I like your general take on things, and your ability to defend it. As to being napalmed, you’ll continue to be. Pay it no mind. You haven’t *seen* napalmed… I have.-AL

     

    Actually, Haniel is the real Tech Wizard on the back end stuff, I’m mainly the interface person.

    Far as Napalm, trust me I’ve been through Napalm Wars that make anything that ever went on here look like a Pee Wee Hockey league brawl.  Not just on TBP, also on AOL in the old days when it REALLY was the Wild West, and IRC chat before that.

    My issue is not with getting Napalmed myself, it’s when I finally get ticked off enough to Go Ballistic.  Brother Love of the Internet.

    Room gets suddenly still
    And when you’d almost bet
    You could hear yourself sweat, he walks in
    Eyes black as coal
    And when he lifts his face
    Ev’ry ear in the place is on him
    Starting soft and slow
    Like a small earthquake
    And when he lets go,
    Half the valley shakes

    Laptops have been know to spontaneously explode.  Entire Global Routers and Fiber Optic Trunk cables have melted down.  Cray Supercomputers show the Blue Screen of Death.

    Anyhow, hopefully nobody ticks me off enough to lose it.  We’ll see.

     

    RE

  59. Roger Ellis Says:

    ‘gerald spazio’ is a troll-tard

    I said that on a thread December 11th, 2013 at 9:50 am

    Still holds true.

    ‘Jersey Patriot’ when you expressed disbelief at a 3.25C rise in the next 16 years it was obvious to me you don’t understand basic compound interest math, the kind taught in the lower grades of public school.

    Here’s a ‘Jersey’ explanation:

    You borrow $100 from Louie the Loan Shark

    The terms are it’s 100% compound interest per week

    A week from now, you owe Louie the principle $100 plus another $100.

    Doesn’t look too bad.

    You can’t pay the first week so it ‘compounds’ at the end of the second week to $400 total.

    Ouch.

    Still ‘doable’ right ‘Jersey’?

    But your an ass to pay $300 bucks in interest just to use a measly $100

    You miss the second week, and the third rolls around, now your ‘in’ for $800 to Louie.

    He sends a ‘guy’ around to give you ‘greeting’, the ‘guy’ breaks your face and says next week it will be your knee caps.

    Hard to pay off a debt with broken knee caps, mobility tanks.

    That the exponential principle that you demonstrate no comprehension of.

    Albert Bartlett laughs in your face from the grave.

    One positive ‘100% compound interest per week‘ like climate feedback is more than enough to sink the planet.

    Twenty (and growing feedback loops) COMPOUNDING OFF ONE ANOTHER (as in MULTIPLYING not merely added to one another)
    is like an army of Louie the Loan Sharks come to collect their DUE.

    Crack a basic math book ‘Jersey’ or go a round with Louie.

  60. the virgin terry Says:

    ‘We are told that the evil Nazis gassed 6 million innocent Jews because the Nazis were consumed by antisemitism.

    This all causative German antisemitism was generated SPONTANEOUSLY, as in the spontaneous generation of maggots.’

    hardly. antisemitism, one facet of the multi-faceted phenomenon known as (dogmatic) religious strife/war/intolerance, goes way way back in europe in general, and in germany.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Luther_and_antisemitism

    the last link in the 5th paragraph of guy’s essay goes to a website for the ‘permaculture research institute’. interesting article there written by an obviously well informed and lucid individual. the most remarkable thing about the link tho, imo, comes from the comment section below the essay on how climate science is besieged globally. it seems even many permies have drunk the denial koolaid. again, this is just one of many many examples/clues indicating how hopeless the situation is, when misinfo is so widespread and entrenched.

    imo and experience, much of ‘denial’ simply boils down to plain fstupidity (fstupidity is to stupidity as fugly is to ugly, and fignorant is to ignorant), insanity, and arrogance. it’s enough to make one somewhat (or very) misanthropic, the commonality/pervasiveness of these traits, as well as full of despair for the future and remorse over the misfortune of being a helpless victim of/ witness to it. and i’m not just talking about nte. i see it everywhere, affecting everything artificial or civilized. the whole damned society/culture is rife with stupidity, insanity, and arrogance. especially at the top. like wealth trickles down and shit rolls downhill, idiotic insane hubris of ‘our’ (mis)leaders now seems to equally afflict ‘the sheeple’. it’s what seals our doom.

  61. RE Says:

    Why did Ocean Heat Content decrease from 1960 to 1970?  Presumably we were burning progressively more fossil fuels through the time period.

    http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/indicators/ocean-heat-content.gif

    RE

  62. Roger Ellis Says:

    Here’s a great graph to ill-ustrate why the Northern Hemisphere is TOAST before the Southern Hemisphere.

    http://robertscribbler.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/methane-concentration1.png

  63. coyoteyogi Says:

    @Tom
    Great comment. Thank you. I don’t know why I hadn’t given it much thought until tonight, but the synergistic effect of positive feedback loops within other positive feedback loops within other (how deep does it go?) feedback loops. Yes it is a vey complex system and yes there are still more unknowns than knowns, but it seems that every month or so brings a new addition to the list. Because the science is biased for the most conservative outcome and because scientists like to leave themselves an escape route if something completely unexpected shows up, we get words in every study like:
    it seems, it is possible that, it could be, it might become etc. etc. It’s human enough to include those words when there is still uncertainty. When I surf about and read comments in more mainstream internet media the denialists seize on those words and use them as proof that nothing needs to be done because there is a possibility of the problem being much smaller and more manageable.

    I know that our goose is cooked. My current little sunbeam of hope is to claim that we are in the “miracle zone”. Almost everyone who has stage 4 cancer dies of the disease. However, there are exceptions. Spontaneous remission does happen. It always leaves the doctors scratching their heads. There doesn’t seem to be any way to study it or test for it to in any way facilitate it. It’s a mystery. That is what I cling to. There is still plenty of mystery out there. No science to back it up. No peer reviewed papers_ just some very interesting anecdotal evidence is all we’ve got. I enjoyed Larry Dossey’s most recent book One Mind http://www.amazon.com/One-Mind-Individual-Greater-Consciousness-ebook/dp/B00EA8UEWC/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1391218623&sr=1-1&keywords=larry+dossey It made for an interesting read.

  64. Bob S. Says:

    Personally, I believe only a darn fool would call Dr. McPherson a liar.

    But it’s easy to tell, Dr. McPherson, are your pants on fire?

  65. Bob S. Says:

    RE:

    My guess would be that it (the heat) went somewhere else.

    coyoteyogi – many hear, most are speechless.

  66. ulvfugl Says:

    No need to add anything really…

    Apparently none of you experts get it. You think your role is limited to polite discourse, while we’re talking about near-term collapse and human extinction, caused by our near-total failure to address the human contribution to climate change.

    Some of you are choosing to hide behind your credentials and presumed “roles” as if this cloak will protect you. What will you do then when the climate goes absolutely ape and then policy makers and the public decry your reticence? Continue to claim that you were “just doing your job”? Do you really and truly believe you have done all that you can, especially considering the extreme threat this now poses to humanity?

    I “dare” call you out on this point because there are in fact a great many of us in the public that do not think you have done enough. Ladbury’s high and mighty assumption is that science is “unassailable” to the unwashed public whom is deemed “unworthy” to question. Bullshit. My child is qualified to question ALL of you – and clearly should. His LIFE is at stake here.

    What do you think the public is going to do to all of you scientists if you don’t get off the pot and force this issue to the forefront with our policy makers? Got a good place to hide?

    And why do ANY of you actually think you need to convince the public of anything? The public does not set policy. The public doesn’t do a damned thing except complain and ask for more crumbs. It isn’t the public that is going to change the outcome now. This is not your target audience and never has been. You’re quite ignorant of this fact.

    Ladbury, you’re an arrogant d**k and you need to be b* slapped into sensibility. You understood nothing in my post. I will simply ignore you from here on out because you are simply not bright enough to pick up on the specific points I brought forward. I have no use for fools.

    – See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/01/if-you-see-something-say-something/comment-page-3/#comment-452385

  67. Darth Imperius Says:

    My friends, this debate is at least 40 years old, and the solutions haven’t changed. As Dr. Krafft A. Ehricke said in 1978, we have an Extraterrestrial Imperative that we must obey:

    “The way to solve a problem is to forge concepts that permit one to look beyond the problem. Even today’s conflicts between humankind and the environment, so seemingly insolvable to catastrophists and antitechnologists, can be turned from conflict to juxtaposition of interests in the crucible of higher concepts. Such a concept is the realization that we can enhance the “supplies” to spaceship Earth, beyond energy, to include materials and information acquisition/transfer for the mainstream of human civilization.

    We have not yet exhausted outright any needed resource. There are vast land areas, such as the Sudan and others, that could feed all mankind once developed. Minerals and energy abound on Earth and beyond if we have the resolve to develop them rather than retreat into stagnating stupor that would hurt our environment more than the advance of a benign industrial revolution taking into account terrestrial and extraterrestrial environments. Technology will not be the cause of our demise, but lack of willingness to advance it beyond the early, transitional state may be. Technology is the source of our options. Options are the basis of a future that keeps us above the level of pawns. Those who condemn technology, properly applied, eliminate our options. They commit the worst of all pollutions-the pollution of our future.

    To find the approaches to solutions that can properly safeguard the future of our civilization with its unparalleled contributions to the human factor of life, we need a better understanding of what we face. We need insight into the long past that shaped us and set our course-back to life’s silent and successful struggle for survival and growth a primordial planet.

    The Extraterrestrial Imperative is a manifestation of larger evolutionary cycles-an integral part of life’s commitment expansion and growth. The reality of the biosphere testifies to this fact. This splendid system assures our planet’s unique position as a colony of life for the duration of our star unless the climatic or genetic foundations are destroyed. When the planet’s accessible (organic but abiotic) energy sources became exhausted some three billion years ago, life’s response was a vigorous struggle for survival through growth. Certain organisms developed the enzymes needed to utilize solar energy. This shift to an extraterrestrial source was the first great industrial revolution on our planet. Driven by solar energy, the evolving chlorophyll molecule became the technical instrument by which to turn primordial energy and matter into chemical energy in biotic organic compounds. Mass production of the basic staples of life was initiated. The by-product, free oxygen, began to pollute the chemically nonaggressive environment of Earth and became a self-induced growth driver by which life stimulated itself into a giant evolutionary advance–a global biosphere–catapulting intelligent life into existence.”

    The point is that technology is as old as life. Technological advances and enlargement of the resource base beyond the limits of this planet became the bridge for survival and growth. A system evolved, so stable that it could tolerate the ascent of a new, intelligent life form able, in turn, to interact with primordial matter through its own technology. This is the basis for the new thrust of the Extraterrestrial Imperative. For small planets, such as Earth, the extraplanetary imperative is a necessity to ensure long-term survival. In return, this imperative offers a higher, virtually unlimited, evolutionary ceiling than appears available to much larger, exclusively planetogenic bioworlds as might have arisen on Jupiter.

    (read the entire paper at http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/aureview/1978/jan-feb/ehricke.html )

    Geoengineering can control the Earth’s temperature; satellites can harness the clean energy of the sun; industrial processes can be relocated beyond Earth; asteroids can be mined; a quadrillion humans can live on O’Neill habitats in space; planets can be terraformed; a Dyson sphere can be built; the entire solar system can be moved with a Shkadov thruster; galaxies can be arranged into giant smiley faces. We are only at the beginning of our development as a species, not even yet Kardashev level 1. There are many orders of magnitude more levels of energy to use before we’ve reached Kardashev level 3 and harnessed the resources of our galaxy. Beyond that, there at least a hundred billion galaxies more. So for all these reasons, it is not nearly midnight for mankind, but morning in the Milky Way, and a still more glorious dawn awaits!

  68. Darth Imperius Says:

    Man will conquer space soon!

  69. Godofredo Aravena Says:

    About Spezio
    A weird guy, and many times, unbearable.
    But, first, he is just words, in a post.
    Who is this guy?
    Does he exist?
    It is up to anybody here to read his posts.
    It is up to anybody here to comment, etc.
    And, to me, he has not gone beyond any reasonable limit. Even to offend is within the limits, because after all it is all about words.
    So, let him be.
    I personally do not pay much attention to his posts, anymore. I understood that he has a kind of twisted view of almost everything. But he thinks, after all.
    And, to me, he has the right to post.
    Not banning people is one of the (unwritten) rules of NBL, that is a very remarkable quality. That should be kept. So readers set the bias.
    We have to learn to accept people that may be wrong (from our personal point of view) or may see things in a totally different way.
    Seen from the other side, NBL is a weird community. In other blogs, our typical posts may become the “Spezios” there.
    So, just stay cool.
    NBL can easily survive to Spezio.

  70. Darth Imperius Says:

    Earth is not a closed system! Geoengineering can control the Earth’s temperature; satellites can harness the clean energy of the sun; industrial processes can be relocated beyond Earth; asteroids can be mined; a quadrillion humans can live on O’Neill habitats in space; planets can be terraformed; a Dyson sphere can be built; the entire solar system can be moved with a Shkadov thruster; galaxies can be arranged into giant smiley faces. We are only at the beginning of our development as a species, not even yet Kardashev level 1. There are many orders of magnitude more levels of energy to use before we’ve reached Kardashev level 3 and harnessed the resources of our galaxy. Beyond that, there at least a hundred billion galaxies more. So for all these reasons and more, it is not nearly midnight for mankind, but morning in the Milky Way, and a still more glorious dawn awaits!

  71. RE Says:

    “My guess would be that it (the heat) went somewhere else.”-BS

    Where else? By what mechanism?

    RE

  72. logspirit Says:

    Rain on my van roof, on the van that’s my home… watching hot words fly through my electronic eye. Something about pins and angels, and some crazy voodoo too. Sitting out here at the edge of the rest of the world as the arguments flare, as the heat spreads and the drought grows, as the connections among those who know are abraded and snap from tension. The rest… well there’s no fear when you don’t know, its all easy street, a simple matter of applied voodoo 101. The lion looks like a big pussy cat. Pet the hungry shark. Feed the grizzly teddy bear. Smugly grip the safety bar on the roller coaster seat that isn’t riding safe anymore. Although the supporting timbers are bent, the old bolts are rusty, the rail bed has rotted out… the ride master figures on getting a little more profit from one more ride. Now the middle of the train has made it to the top -enjoy the view from vertigo ridge- and the first cars are heading, through mid air, down, through the emptiness of the splintering track. Falling while arguing about the color of the cotton candy. And some, who don’t know, who don’t want to know their up from down, will say: “Holy technology Batman! Its all good, we’re flying.”

    When the rain is directly on your thin rusty roof, dripping through… and you’re looking back at the glow of the city from beyond the edge… it is plain, you understand the unforgiving pull of gravity and you know how hard, how deadly cold the ground is… dam, its been your bed before and waking up was always a flipping miracle. Sure, there’s a difference between laying down on it from your knees and crashing from 10 miles high. But it ain’t the fall that kills you.

    Then we’ll have undeniable conclusive evidence, and we’ll absolutely know, for sure, exactly how many angels are dancing on the heads of all those bloody pins.

  73. Artleads Says:

    Lidia,

    Therapy worked wonders for me (although I admire your generally skeptical attitude).

    I’ve had brief stints with really bad therapists, and long stints with really good ones. The last good one told me about new rules of disclosure that force therapists to, under the law, report some categories of illegal behavior. (I wonder if that applied to priests giving confession.) I considered this to be a horrible degeneration in the role of therapy, although I wasn’t personally liable for such disclosure myself.

    Exponential growth of everything, including corruption and villainy, can’t lead anywhere but down.

    RE

    Scary!

  74. Apneaman Says:

    RE: Darth Delirious

    Was Krafft A. Ehricke in the SS like Von Braun?

  75. Darth Imperius Says:

    Apeman, I don’t know if Mr. Ehricke was in the SS, nor do I think it’s particularly relevant to the issue of humanity’s cosmic destiny. What sort of stupid ape are you to ask such a question? And do you have any idea what a great and brilliant man Wernher von Braun was? Back to the jungle monkey! Civilization is too complex for your kind! The challenge of space calls for greatness, not wretchedness! Now don’t bother me any more filth, I have work to do!

    “The time has come for man to set himself a goal. The time has come to plant the seed to his highest hope.” —Friedrich Nietzsche

    “There is no way back into the past; the choice, as Wells once said, is the universe—or nothing. Though men and civilizations may yearn for rest, for the dream of the lotus-eaters, that is a desire that merges imperceptibly into death. The challenge of the great spaces between the worlds is a stupendous one; but if we fail to meet it, the story of our race will be drawing to its close. Humanity will have turned its back upon the still untrodden heights and will be descending again the long slope that stretches, across a thousand million years of time, down to the shores of the primeval sea.” —Arthur C. Clarke

  76. Godofredo Aravena Says:

    Darth Imperius
    The development of an intelligent specie begins learning how to live with less, and respect with other creatures. If so, what is the need for more (space)?
    And also, we have not even learnt to live in peace with other humans.
    There is a long way of learning about us on earth before thinking that “the milky way is the limit”.

  77. RE Says:

    Here is another graph for you to consider, Atmospheric CO2 since 1960.

    http://www.planetforlife.com/images/keeling2.gif

    As you can see, it is a fairly Linear increase over the time period.  If atmospheric and ocean temperatures were directly correlated to atmospheric CO2, you should have seen a linear progression upward in  temp with them, but you don’t see that.

    In fact what you do see is some levelling and plateauing through the period.  There is NOT a direct correlation here over more than 50 years of time.

    So, something ELSE must be affecting the system.  What is it, and why don’t you see direct correlation?

    Geotectonics explains the reason why there is not direct correlation.  the Climate is not strictly governed by what we are doing or have done, although we do affect it certainly.  Regardless though, if you study Dlindquists graphs, you can see that the energy release by the earth was much more directly correlated to rising ocean temps than atmospheric CO2.  We would have faced this problem regardless of industrialization, though it is exacerbating the problem no doubt.

    There are many factors impacting on climate, CO2 is only one of them.  Important factor yes, but not by any means the only one.  Besides that, no real good models exist to explain why the PETM reversed itself when atmospheric CO2 went 500ppm+, possibly as high as 1000ppm.

    I defy Guy to explain why the positive feedback loops he has dientified did not result in Venusian style warming at the end of the PETM.  Why did it reverse Guy?

     

    Until I have an adequate explanation for this, I can only assume it is possible for the system to reverse or reequilibrate under many different sets of parameters.  Guy has never shown why it cannot.

    Ball in your court Guy.

    :)

    RE

  78. Tom Says:

    RE: that’s a good question and I have no definitive answer (but i’ll check around). I would guess that complex systems do weird things every now and then, and that perhaps the steady heating wasn’t absorbed into the ocean until it reached some kind of saturation point (or just some level until such time) when the ocean began absorbing it again – steadily, in general, ie. not linearly. We can clearly see other places where the graph dips for a little while and then proceeds in its steady yet wavering climb. So it’s probably something to do with the systemic “mechanism” of absorption and evaporation. It seems rather pedantic though when you look ahead to where it is NOW, which we should be more concerned about. What do you think happened in that segment of the graph (50 to 60 years ago)?

    Darth: Comic book fantasies are fun, but considering our history and the fact that the available energy is diminishing rapidly prohibits your scenario of interstellar exploration (so that we can kill more planets via our inharmonious way of life) imho. Oh, and, last time I looked, the planet IS a closed system so far as we’re concerned (yes it lets in radiation from the sun but for everything else it’s closed). So if you’re looking for sunlight to save us, you’ll see we haven’t the means to convert enough of it to usable energy at the scale we’d need, and most importantly we’ve destroyed the habitat for life and are now in the process of catastrophic collapse (it’s only just getting started). Thanks for your thoughts though.

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/01/31/3232181/methane-leak-gulf/

    ‘Out-Of-Control’ Rig In The Gulf Gushing Methane Freely Into The Atmosphere

    [as if we haven't done enough damage in the Gulf . . .]

    An “out-of-control” well that began blowing gas into the air on Thursday is still not under control as of Friday morning, according to a report from the Associated Press.

    42-non essential workers from Rowan Companies PLC’s offshore rig in the Gulf of Mexico, named “Louisiana,” were evacuated, while 37 stayed on the rig to try and stop the flow of gas. Rig operator EnVen Energy Ventures said that while workers attempt to kill the well, gas was being “vented” off of the rig. Although gas, water and sand are still flowing from the well, EnVen said no pollution has occurred in the Gulf.

    “All personnel currently aboard the rig are safe and non-essential personnel have been evacuated, all well control equipment is functioning as designed (and) there has been no environmental impact,” Rowan Companies spokesperson Deanna Castillo told the AP.

    Unlike a spill, an out-of-control well blowing gas does not pollute in a traditional, visible sense. Instead, it releases methane — the potent, second-most prevalent greenhouse gas — into the air, contributing to climate change. Pure natural gas is mostly methane, a fuel that burns cleaner than coal or oil. However, when methane is released directly into the air, it traps heat in the atmosphere.

    From an air quality perspective, it is better to burn flowing gas through a flare system, rather than venting it directly into the atmosphere, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

    [you can see by that statement that the EPA is corrupted, "better" would be not releasing it at all!]

  79. ulvfugl Says:

    @ RE

    50 years is not the correct time frame to establish a correlation with temperature and CO2.

    There are many factors impacting on climate, CO2 is only one of them.

    Nobody has ever suggested anything else. You’re stating the obvious.

    There are explanations why Venusian-style runaway warming is impossible. They have been addressed in the literature re Hansen’s suggestion. E.g. I think one was there’s too much water.

  80. Robin Datta Says:

    Darth Imperius:

    You really should follow Dmitry Orlov’s advice to have kinky sex with chickens on alfalfa roofs for gold bullion. The newcomers to NBL don’t know about it, but you certainly do.

  81. Robin Datta Says:

    Ball in your court Guy.

    ‘Tain’t in his court: he ain’t a player. Just a collator of statistics from the players. Direct your questions to them.

  82. dairymandave Says:

    I think that surface temps of the ocean are taken in various spots. What about all the other spots and all the other depths? Was the water thoroughly mixed? No. The measurements must be rather messy.

  83. Darth Imperius Says:

    Wrong again, dodo! An intelligent species changes the rules of the game, like those first microorganisms that said “screw this!” and figured out how to eat solar energy several billion years ago. Living in peace with other humans is not a prerequisite for conquering the stars — if you believe that, you must be swallowing that Federation propaganda! I’m writing a book that will spell all this out in its full glory; the tentative title is “From Here to Empire”. When it’s done, I’ll be sure to let my friends at NBL know. War!

  84. Artleads Says:

    coyoteyogi

    Miracle zone indeed. It’s fascinating to consider that the CO2 in the pipeline *now* could wipe us out even if we were presently at baseline. How is it that so many gloss over this?

    So the “hopelessness” of the situation is not nearly hopeless enough. Which brings me to my main current preoccupation: the incredible disconnect between commonsense and the world order.

    Is there a useful way to bypass the discussion of how relevant CO2 is to warming, and just look at our certainties instead? Ice everywhere is melting. Melting ice raises sea level, and contributes to increased warming which melts more ice, all in the process of releasing methane. The average person should be able to grasp that.

    There’s the decade-temp-plateau argument, and the plausible layman explanation that Earth is trying to find equilibrium, putting some of the heat into the ocean and the upper atmosphere instead of near ground level where, I believe, it is measured. But it’s not for the average person to argue the fine points here. Commonsense for the masses. How do we get that?

    Given the extreme direness of the situation, which the average person can’t be able to assess scientifically, is there a just-enough, simple explanation that can at least get humanity thinking of getting off the pot? I think that the simpler the explanation, the more likely it will be to stick. It is also likely that presenting the NTE conclusion to the many is the wrong way entirely to proceed.

    The public is/are already fed with lies and led around by the nose in calamitous ignorance. So it will be skeptical of memes that totally disconnect from its sense of reality. Would it be better to give the public (in an aggressively programmatic way that it doesn’t see as aggressive and programmatic) just a steady stream of the basic information on collapse, allowing it to come to its own conclusions?

    Meanwhile, let’s allow room for the miracle zone among the others? I see a slight but key difference in concluding that a) it’s all over due to overwhelming physical and social inertial forces AND b) there being nothing to lose thereby, suspending belief or conclusion and doing something programmatic today that is practical and works toward achieving that One Mind (wherever that leads).

  85. Grant Schreiber Says:

    RE “Besides that, no real good models exist to explain why the PETM reversed itself when atmospheric CO2 went 500ppm+, possibly as high as 1000ppm.”

    You’ve entered the cul-de-sac of reasoning. The model you’re looking for is called time. Time, unlike ideas, does not fossilize. The PETM did not “reverse” itself. Over a long period of time, the CO2 levels reduced naturally.

  86. ulvfugl Says:

    @ Darth Imperius

    An intelligent species changes the rules of the game,

    An intelligent species doesn’t get into this mess. You’re trolling.

    Where’s the resources and energy to colonise the galaxy going to come from when you can’t even fix Detroit ? Look at Iraq. Not ONE of the missions was completed, not a single one ! No water plants, no sewerage, no hospitals, no electricity generation, trillions of dollars thrown away and nothing but a big mess and hundreds of thousands of corpses, and now you’re going to colonise the fucking Universe. Sure, you are.

    @ Artleads

    Melting ice raises sea level, and contributes to increased warming which melts more ice, all in the process of releasing methane. The average person should be able to grasp that.

    There’s the decade-temp-plateau argument, and the plausible layman explanation that Earth is trying to find equilibrium, putting some of the heat into the ocean and the upper atmosphere instead of near ground level where, I believe, it is measured. But it’s not for the average person to argue the fine points here. Commonsense for the masses. How do we get that?

    You better try unscrambling your own brain before you start explaining stuff to other people. You’re talking nonsense. How does SLR increase warming ?

    It is also likely that presenting the NTE conclusion to the many is the wrong way entirely to proceed.

    Yes, well you were clueless when you arrived and you’ve learned nothing since you arrived.

    What are you suggesting ? Tell the people lies ? Great idea, Artleads.

    This blog is SUPPOSED to be about telling the TRUTH.

    The problem for you is that you have no understanding of anything, so you have no idea what the truth is.

    What did those therapists tell you ? ‘When in doubt make up some bullshit, you’ll do just fine’ ?

  87. mass Says:

    @Darth Imperius

    Brilliant satire, you fooled some people here. We should start building the Death Star now for our glorious space conquest.

  88. mt Says:

    Thanks, Guy,great job.
    Under these circumstances, I understand the bits of anger I find here. Hell, I’m angry too at times. However, I’m about as prepared as I can be for NTE. You know what I did?
    I LIVED (except I really wanted to scuba dive and I never did that).

  89. Kirk Hamilton Says:

    I’m reposting a response to the Survival Acres Blog article, Exploding the Myth that We Can Change. I liked it, so I’m sharing. Compared to most scientists, Guy and a few others appear to be the only ones able to apply the rapidly changing data on climate change. To me, if you’re unwilling to apply the data, you’re not really a scientist. We don’t have the time for you to drag your feet.

    “Many of us climate watchers (non-scientists) believe that scientist have failed us. Just when we needed you most, you let us all down. The scientific reticence, and the unwilling to put career on the line to be forcefully outspoken is unforgivable in the context of what is now happening.

    Consider that we would not be in the position of where we are today if scientist had simply demanded an audience back in the 70′s and 80′s when there were already clear signals of danger even then. And then stuck to their guns throughout all the denial.

    Many environmental scientists are just as “guilty” in my book. Species extinctions are now occurring at an unprecedented rate and scientists are simply not trying hard enough to get the message across. The oceans globally are in a state of severe collapse – and yet, this is barely even known in the public discourse.

    Their not alone of course, but you guys and gals are the researchers of what is happening to our planet – and you are most definitely NOT sounding the alarm stridently enough.

    If it took a “science walkout” on a global scale to “send the message” of the clear and present danger we are now all in – then that is exactly what should have been done (at a minimum). But almost at no time (with few minor and noteworthy exceptions) did this sort of thing occur.

    So now we’re all faced with the “too little, too late” and “how in $#@ do we solve the crisis” situation. Species extinction for example, is forever, and we’re just now being told how many species and which ones are now gone forever.

    Climate science is the biggie, and climate scientists are STILL not sounding the alarm stridently enough. Do you scientist actually think for example, that all the now missing ice can simply be replaced? Do most climate scientist truly realize what this means RIGHT NOW for over one billion people who rely upon glacial melt? Why aren’t you literally screaming from the rooftops to literally force policy makers, including your own departments to finally pay attention? Do something RADICAL FOR ONCE.

    We’re way past the time when we should have had a global rebellion over the ongoing planetary destruction occurring virtually everywhere – and scientist should have been leading the way with facts, evidence, research, analysis and their decades of expertise. They should have been blowing their horns loud and long – and if that didn’t work, they should have chained themselves to the Lincoln Memorial. SOMETHING to finally garner media, public and government attention to the sheer scale and scope of the crisis we are now in.

    There is no point in sounding the alarm after the cows have escaped the barn, but now, finally, scientists are themselves “waking up”. Too bad for all of us – you’re really a day late and a dollar short. This isn’t a game people, its life or death for the whole of the biosphere.

    But we’ve yet to see this. We’ve yet to see scientists “get involved” at the level of activism that is absolutely essential and necessary. You’ve had DECADES to do this – and it simply never happened. You’ve also got the credentials the rest of the world desperately lacks – so USE IT.

    So as much as I appreciate all that you have done, and all the work and research, what I’d much rather see now is a total global outcry to demand actions from the world’s governments and leaders. Nothing less than this “will do”. Nothing less then this will stand a chance of changing the outcome now.

    This has always been a part of “your job” by the way. No expert in his or her field is expected to stay silent or demurely say “but you don’t understand the significance of what this means…” or some such polite nonsense, especially when you consider the true significance of what you’ve uncovered.

    The world DESPERATELY needs scientists from all disciplines and research fields to take a VERY strong position regarding what is occurring to our planet. The very survival of the entire biosphere is at stake – or if you scientists still don’t realize this yet – then shame on you. Many of us have taken years out of our lives to read up on the real state of affairs, spending countless hours connecting all of the dots to the best of our abilities. We think we are in serious trouble and there is absolutely no time at all to waste piddling around anymore. We don’t believe we have a decade or two – or even a year or two, the time to act is already past, but now is still far better then NEVER.

    So where are you? Why are you still engaged in the field when we need you engaged with our governments and leaders? Do you really need more proof or evidence? Why not task some of your best and brightest and most outspoken and organize a resistance movement? Or would you rather just stay in the field taking your measurements and writing your reports? What good is that going to do any of us now?

    I’m not advocating you stop science – not at all, but it’s time to put down the pens and pencils and the spreadsheets and databases and instrumentation and go grab our stupid politicians and corporate destroyers by the throat and GET SOMETHING DONE that will enhance our chances of surviving the destruction we have unleashed.

    Nothing less then this will suffice. Some of you know this. Some of you still haven’t connected all the dots. If we can do it – so can you. You are eminently more qualified to do this then we are.

    So where ARE YOU in this fight for our survival?”

    SO, here we are, and the quibblers are continuing to cancel out any attempt at new insight. I’ve seen the quibblers cancel out almost every good idea that I’ve ever seen or heard presented. My disdain for the constant quibbling knows no bounds, you’re like eternal TURDS IN A PUNCHBOWL, especially here! TPTB won’t ever gave to crack down on the masses, the quibblers in our ranks will effectively keep the way clear for the entrenched psychopathic idiots that lead us to reign supreme to the bitter end.

  90. BenjaminTheDonkey Says:

    Keystone XL

    Looks like they’re going to say
    It won’t make a difference, but hey,
    The government’s view
    Is actually true—
    We’re totally fucked anyway.

  91. Artleads Says:

    “You better try unscrambling your own brain before you start explaining stuff to other people. You’re talking nonsense. How does SLR increase warming ?”

    I didn’t say that SLR increased warming. Try a second (or a first) reading.

    As to what to tell people, that has been discussed repeatedly on NBL, with many thinking it’s futile to discuss NTE. Just as kind to leave the blissfully ignorant be. So I’m not suggesting anything new in that department. But I’m not even suggesting that. I want people to have the facts they can grasp, and then come to their own conclusions. I don’t propose lying to them; only presenting what they can grasp–and far more programmatically and aggressively than hitherto. And read what I fucking said before you shoot off, like the fucking smart ass that are, about that last sentence. Don’t just find every single frigging gotcha you can CREATE and start berating people for them.

    You say you don’t have time for me, so why the fuck are you following me everywhere, putting words in my mouth, falsifying my statements, along with the usual insults? Get a fucking life, clown! You prove that an exalted IQ score doesn’t confer on you more understanding than, say, your little dog. She must roll her eyes at your folly.

  92. Robin Datta Says:

    Try a second (or a first) reading.

    Matthew 7:6

    Vulgate:

    Nolite dare sanctum canibus, neque mittatis margaritas vestras ante porcos, ne forte conculcent eas pedibus suis, et conversi disrumpant vos.

    King James Version:

    Give not that which is holy unto the dogs, neither cast ye your pearls before swine, lest they trample them under their feet, and turn again and rend you.

  93. ulvfugl Says:

    @ Artleads

    Ice everywhere is melting. Melting ice raises sea level, and contributes to increased warming which melts more ice, all in the process of releasing methane. The average person should be able to grasp that.

    OK. Explain please, to the average person, how that works.

    What’s causing the ice to melt, why is melting ? To average person might say they’ve heard that it’s actually increasing. You’ve got to convince them and explain what’s happening.

    How exactly does raising the sea level contribute to increased warming and melting more ice ?

    And what does any of that have to do with methane ?

    That’s the first half of what you said.

    Are you an average person ?
    Have you grasped the problem ?
    Can you explain it to another average person ?

    Or are you an above average person ? How do you see yourself ?

    Then we come to


    There’s the decade-temp-plateau argument, and the plausible layman explanation that Earth is trying to find equilibrium, putting some of the heat into the ocean and the upper atmosphere instead of near ground level where, I believe, it is measured. But it’s not for the average person to argue the fine points here. Commonsense for the masses. How do we get that?

    Where do you find that nonsense ? What planet are you living on ?

    Given the extreme direness of the situation, which the average person can’t be able to assess scientifically, is there a just-enough, simple explanation that can at least get humanity thinking of getting off the pot? I think that the simpler the explanation, the more likely it will be to stick. It is also likely that presenting the NTE conclusion to the many is the wrong way entirely to proceed.

    SO, as I just said above, if you are NOT going to tell them the truth, what ARE you going to tell them ?

    You just said you DON’T PROPOSE LYING to them. What kind of stupid is it then, that wants to avoid telling them about NTE, but doesn’t propose telling lies, Artleads ? You know, that’s why I mentioned unscrambling your brain.

    The public is/are already fed with lies and led around by the nose in calamitous ignorance. So it will be skeptical of memes that totally disconnect from its sense of reality. Would it be better to give the public (in an aggressively programmatic way that it doesn’t see as aggressive and programmatic) just a steady stream of the basic information on collapse, allowing it to come to its own conclusions?

    Meanwhile, let’s allow room for the miracle zone among the others? I see a slight but key difference in concluding that a) it’s all over due to overwhelming physical and social inertial forces AND b) there being nothing to lose thereby, suspending belief or conclusion and doing something programmatic today that is practical and works toward achieving that One Mind (wherever that leads).

    Which is where you were when you arrived. Full of bullshit and hopium and utterly clueless. And why people left because of you. You learned nothing, understood nothing, and you’re still full of crap.

    I mean, what better example could we have that Artleads is a conman and a bullshitter than Would it be better to give the public (in an aggressively programmatic way that it doesn’t see as aggressive and programmatic)… after you have JUST SAID the public is fed up with lies ! There you are, proposed more fucking lies and rubbish.
    I suppose that’s how you go about selling yourself and your art. Bullshit, bullshit, bullshit.

    When have you EVER made a comment here that contained anything worthwhile or actually contained anything that meant anything, Artleads ?

  94. RE Says:

    “Ball in your court Guy.

    ‘Tain’t in his court: he ain’t a player. Just a collator of statistics from the players. Direct your questions to them.”-RD

    No, he does more than collate statistics. He interprets them and draws conclusions based on them. The most famous of these conclusions is that Homo Sapiens will be extinct by mid century. I am pointing out why that conclusion may not be correct.

    RE

  95. RE Says:

    “50 years is not the correct time frame to establish a correlation with temperature and CO2.”-UF

    Then how could you conclude HS will be extinct by mid-century? That is LESS than 50 years away.

    Since there are clearly other variables acting on this system and it fluctuates, you can’t know precisely what it will do over the next 50 years.

    RE

  96. Bob S. Says:

    RE says: “No, he does more than collate statistics. He interprets them and draws conclusions based on them. The most famous of these conclusions is that Homo Sapiens will be extinct by mid century. I am pointing out why that conclusion may not be correct.”

    We must view science different, you and I. Because the way I understand science, is that it measures things and stuff with shiny chrome meters or satellites. They drill down in the ice and ‘read’ the layers, but you know all this –

    I see science giving me more a sense of direction that actual destination. IOW if the IPCC says the world will heat up 3.5 and another respected source say plants die at 2.5 – science has led me to strong evidence that plants are toast.

    IMHO, I think Dr. Mcpherson will be the first to admit he can’t say for certain the world will end in 2030. He says to me that the evidence points strongly at his concluded outcome. I agree.

    Nobody gets out alive. Just some talk more than others.

  97. ulvfugl Says:

    @ RE

    “50 years is not the correct time frame to establish a correlation with temperature and CO2.”-UF

    Then how could you conclude HS will be extinct by mid-century? That is LESS than 50 years away.

    Because the role of CO2 in the global system has been clarified over a much MUCH LONGER period.

    It’s possible to predict NTE by mid century by extrapolating from all the current trends and the positive feedback loops, that the temperature that we get to by then, along with all the other damage, such as ocean acidification, resource wars, salination of soils, loss of forests, etc, etc, etc, will have made the planet uninhabitable. It’s not just the CO2, is it.

    Since there are clearly other variables acting on this system and it fluctuates, you can’t know precisely what it will do over the next 50 years.

    Every climate scientist KNOWS that there are other variables acting on the system. Nobody has EVER claimed that there weren’t. That does not mean that it’s impossible to know what the system will do !

    What it means is that there is a range of bounded probability which can be confined between most likely and least likely.

    When climate science began, whenever it was, 150 years ago, not much was known, so predictions were vague and crude, but even then that guy Perkins was quite close. As more data has been collected and more research has been done and the system has been better understood, the predictions have become more and more precise and accurate.

    But they are still not perfect and there is no reason to expect that they would ever be precise and accurate in the sense that you can predict billiard balls, because the climate is not like that. It wobbles about all over the place, because, for one thing, the Sun varies.

    But NOW it is worse, because WE HAVE FUCKED IT UP, so nobody has a clue what it’s going to do, but it’s not going to do anything that’s nice for US. We have destabilised the whole thing and it’s NEVER COMING BACK. Not even if we cut down on emissions.

    You are correct. We can’t know PRECISELY to the week, or month, or year, what the climate will be doing over the next 50 years. But we can know that it’s looking as if we could be at 4 deg C by around 2030 or 2040 QUITE EASILY.

    You think we survive at those average global temperatures ? Well, maybe a few people do, but civilisation doesn’t, and the temperature rise doesn’t stop, it keeps on going, nothing stops for centuries.

    The ONLY way to avoid this is to stop emissions, crash IC NOW. Nobody is willing to do that. That’s why we get NTE.

    You want to argue about this, or you want me to explain why I believe this, take it to the forum, I’m happy to explain.

  98. RE Says:

    “Nobody gets out alive. Just some talk more than others.”-BS

    Indeed. And some are more full of shit than others. Then there are those whose opinions are worth less than others too.

    Far as whether Guy makes a caveat that he’s not certain of NTHE, that may be so but it sure isn’t the spin you get reading the website here. I’ve been reading NBL a while and my take away is that the majority of people here including Guy think NTHE is a Lock, there is nothing that will stop it and ZERO people can survive once average temps rise say 6C.

    I dispute that it is a lock,I dispute it is likely to occur along the timeline popularly accepted here, and I dispute that survival is impossible everywhere even with a 6C average temp rise. Besides that I dispute the whole Kubler-Ross bizness and Hospicing in a Grief Party when at the very least here you got a good 20 years or so you gotta figure out how you are going to LIVE, unless of course you would rather die.

    So in short, I hold a Minority Opinion here. :)

    RE

  99. Kirk Hamilton Says:

    How come RE gets to post as many times as he wants to? Assumption of privilege is a drive for dominance. Cool your jets fella. Or will you insult us all, type a speech, then depart pouting, again?


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  1. […] I’ll start with a line from recently deceased professor emeritus and long-time teacher Albert Bartlett: “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” When I speak and write about climate change, most members of the audience are stuck in fifth grade, unaware that nature often exhibits non-linearity. I pick cherries because I see nobody else connecting the dots on climate change. I see nobody else making an honest effort to describe our predicament. So, by default, I’m The Connector. I collate, summarize, and synthesize information about climate change. And in the process of serving as host for the finest reality show on the Internet, I connect people, too. In return, I’m the dark-horse candidate for Golden Horseshoe liar of the year award. No, really: You can read all about it here. This planet has become so Orwellian that those who collate the facts and pass them along are hated as liars.  […]

  2. […] ends within a matter of months post-collapse,” writes Guy McPherson in a post called “Picking Cherries” at Nature Bats Last, adding, “Yet, seemingly contrary to these simple, easy-to-reach […]

  3. […] is lost. He derides any sort of optimism or action as “hopium”. He notes in one recent post that “With an eye to improving my ‘bedside manner’ when I deliver presentations, […]

  4. […] Please read my essay, “Picking cherries.” It’s here. […]

  5. […] of cherry picking the information in this ever-growing essay. I plead guilty, and explain myself in this essay posted 30 January […]

  6. […] of cherry picking the information in this ever-growing essay. I plead guilty, and explain myself in this essay posted 30 January […]

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