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JOBS

Off the keyboard of RE

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on January 19, 2014

Discuss this article at the Economics Table inside the Diner

The Big Newz last week on the Economic Front was the Jobs Report from the Bureau of Lies & Statistics, which now has the FSoA UE Rate down to a remarkable 6.7%! We are doing FANTASTIC! This is down from Double Digit UE Rates around 11% following the Financial Crack-Up of 2008. Happy Daze are HERE AGAIN!

From Zero Hedge

Curious why despite the huge miss in payrolls the unemployment rate tumbled from 7.0% to 6.7%? The reason is because in December the civilian labor force did what it usually does in the New Normal: it dropped from 155.3 million to 154.9 million, which means the labor participation rate just dropped to a fresh 35 year low, hitting levels not seen since 1978, at 62.8% down from 63.0%.

And the piece de resistance: Americans not in the labor force exploded higher by 535,000 to a new all time high 91.8 million.

The jobless, laborless recovery continues to steam on.

ZH of course highlights the OBVIOUS canard being pitched out here, which goes to the Denominator in the Equation, who the BLS counts as UE and Looking for Work. The UE measured rate by the BLS obviously went down tremendously as soon as Da Federal Goobermint dropped millions off from Extended UE bennies that were running 99 Weeks. Once you have used up your Bennies, you no longer are counted as looking for a job, whether you found one or not by the time the bennies ran out.

At the same time, the “Labor Participation Rate”, the percentage of the population who actually has a Job continues to drop here off the map. Are we expected to believe all these folks no longer need or want a job?

Part of the reason for this is Demographics. Overall the population is aging, and more of the Boomers Retire each year, and at least for now can collect SS and whatever Pension is due them, at least if they were not working for the City of Detroit for the last 30 years. However, we still do have Immigration going on, and we still do have homegrown young folks graduating from High School and College. The percentage of either class of people able to find “Jobs” in our current economy continues to drop here, and their hopes for the Future drop with them.

Of course this is NOTHING compared to what is ongoing in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy these days, where Youth

Unemployment is reaching into the +50% category. In a society where having a JOB to earn MONEY is essential if you expect to stay out of Prison or not live in a cardboard box on the street, I can’t think of any better recipe for Social Unrest than these kind of UE numbers.

http://hrackova.veronika.sweb.cz/in-spain-the-epicenter-of-europes-youth-unemployment-crisis-the-rate-has-soared-to-565.png

If you are older here and go UE, even if you are not QUITE yet eligible for SS, decent chance you have some savings to live off, or maybe a paid off McMansion you can sell and live off the proceeds in a trailer park while you wait for SS to kick in. Or you can try and get SSDI a bit earlier than 62 for regular SS retirement FRNs.

http://nomoneynoworries.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/ss-disability.jpg

So there is still some Safety Net here for Job losses, which goes a long way toward explaining why we do not yet see the kind of social unrest already ongoing in Greece and Spain. How long this can continue to play here remains an open question of course.

jobless_unemploymentSo, the bottom line here on all of this ongoing collapse nonsense revolves around the JOBS, which have been since the Industrial Revolution the means by which MOST people get some MONEY to then be able to buy food, pay Rent to the Rentier Class and buy energy with which to run the carz they need to get to work and participate in said Industrial Economy. Jobs disappear, the ability to participate disappears with it.

What ARE the jobs of the Industrial Economy though? Well, for a while during the early Growth Phase here in the FSoA, those jobs were Industrial Factory type work, as we provided hardware to run both WWI and WWII. We had copious sources of local Cheap Energy to run the Factories back then, and besides that after destroying much of the Infrastructure in Europe in both wars, it needed to be rebuilt, providing a lot of work for Factory workers here in the FSoA, where nothing got Bombed.

During the Post WWII period also, the FSoA Industrialists began the largest Public Works project in the History of Mankind, the Eisenhower Interstate. The reason was not to develop Commerce, although that came out of it as a means to Finance the project, it came from the realization by the Military arm of the Military-Industrial Complex that in order to move their Tanks and Hardware around this vast continent, they needed ROADS upon which to roll that hardware.

As a Young Lieutenant in the Army back in 1919, Dwight D Eisenhower had to move a Convoy across the old “Lincoln Highway”, which was really a Hodgepodge of paved and dirt roads, and the equipment they had got bogged down all the time. Fuel stops were vitually nonexistent, so they had to have their own Fuel trucks travelling with them to stock up at the few fuel depots that existed at the time in the more majore motros connected toa Rail line. It took WEEKS to make it across the country.

From the Illinois Dept. of Transportation website:

In late June 2006, a caravan of vehicles organized by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) will travel across the United States from San Francisco, California to Washington, D. C. to commemorate the 50th Anniversary of the Interstate Highway System.

The AASHTO Anniversary Caravan of 2006 will follow Interstate 80 much of the way. It will be retracing, in reverse, the approximate route of a famous previous expedition, the Transcontinental Army Motor Convoy, which followed the Lincoln Highway across the country from Washington to San Francisco in 1919. PHOTO (ABOVE): Soldiers pushing a disabled truck during the 1919 Army Transcontinental Motor Convoy, Eisenhower Library Audiovisual Department, photo 86-19-190

The remainder of this section will describe the 1919 Army Convoy; report on its three-day trip across Illinois and relate what the 1919 Army Convoy meant for the future of American Roads.

ORIGINS AND PURPOSES OF THE 1919 ARMY CONVOY

World War I (1914-1918) was the first large scale military conflict that employed vehicles powered by the relatively new internal combustion engine. Airplanes, trucks, motorcars, and tanks were used on both sides. However, they lacked the reliability, flexibility, and capacity for moving large masses of troops or equipment over long distances on inferior European roads. The vast majority of WWI military transportation on land was done by horses and railroad trains; nevertheless, by the end of the war, most military leaders saw the potential for increased use of motorized troops and equipment in military campaigns of the future.

The end of the war also inspired the leaders of the Good Roads Movement to resume their public relations (PR) campaign to convince the public to demand better roads from state and local governments. The PR campaign had been put on hold during the 1917-1918 period while America was engaged in WWI. Early in 1919, Lincoln Highway Association leader Harry Ostermann had persuaded the War Department to conduct a transcontinental motor convoy trip from the East Coast to San Francisco on the marked route of the Lincoln Highway.

The purpose of the convoy was two fold: 1) it was to be a training exercise and 2) a test of the feasibility of the long distance movement of military men and supplies by auto and truck.

From the Good Roads Movement’s viewpoint, the convoy was meant to produce positive PR by demonstrating that long distance motor travel was possible. It was also meant to heighten awareness of existing poor roads that comprised much of the Lincoln Highway and other roads in the Unites States. Return to Top

AN EPIC JOURNEY FULL OF CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

Amid much hoopla, speeches and fanfare, a 76-vehicle combined “public-private” convoy, including 56 military vehicles, 209 officers and enlisted men, and dozens of private citizens took off from the White House on July 7, 1919. (LH/MAIN STREET, p. 83).

Later that evening, the convoy was joined by two, last minute volunteer Army officers. They were Lieutenant Colonel Dwight D. Eisenhower and Major Sereno Brett, who were to serve as observers for the Army Tank Corps. PHOTO: Major Sereno Brett, Harvey Firestone, Jr., and Lt. Colonel Dwight Eisenhower at 1919 Army Convoy stopover at the Firestone Homestead, Columbania, Ohio, July 13, 1919. Eisenhower Library Audiovisual Department, photo 70-520-3.

The convoy was to operate as if the country was at war and that an Asiatic enemy had destroyed railroad lines, bridges, and tunnels. They were also to act as if they would be traveling through enemy territory and thus, had to be self-contained and self-sustaining over the 3,250-mile route. Maintaining the illusion of being at war or being truly self-sustaining proved to be very difficult, as was the trip itself.

Among some of the military personnel, there was even doubt whether or not the convoy could actually make it across the continent. The vehicles were untested over long distances. Many sections of the Lincoln Highway were unimproved dirt roads. Finally, few military personnel; especially enlisted men, had much experience with motor vehicle driving or maintenance. Eisenhower later wrote that the trek was a genuine adventure. “We were not sure it could be accomplished at all. Nothing of the sort had ever been attempted.”

At first, in the East from Washington through Indiana, the roads were generally good but mechanical problems with the various vehicles and logistical problems slowed the convoy’s progress. Military discipline among the men also was “conspicuous by its absence,” according to one observer. About the familiarity of the men with operating trucks, Eisenhower wrote:

All drivers had claimed lengthy experience in driving trucks; some of them, it turned out, had never handled anything more advanced than a Model T. Most colored the air with expression in starting and stopping that indicated a longer association with teams of horses than with internal combustion engines. (EISENHOWER REPORT)

As the convoy (also referred to as the “train” by some) headed into Illinois and the West, road conditions along the Lincoln Highway presented serious challenges that often delayed and sometimes halted the convoy. The Highway ran on dirt roads through most of Illinois, but the weather was dry, so it was possible to cross the state in a few days. Of the roads between Illinois and California, Eisenhower, in his post-trip report wrote:

The dirt roads of Iowa are well graded and are good in dry weather; but would be impossible in wet weather. In Nebraska, the first real sand was encountered, and two days were lost in western part of this state due to bad, sandy roads. Wyoming roads west of Cheyenne are poor dirt ones, with weak culverts and bridges. In one day, 14 of these were counted, broken through by the train. The desert roads in the southwest portion of this state are very poor. In western Utah, on the Salt Lake Desert, the road becomes almost impossible to heavy vehicles. From Orr’s Ranch, Utah, to Carson City, Nevada, road is one succession of dust, ruts, pits and holes. This stretch was not improved in any way, and consisted only of a track across the desert. At many points on the road water is twenty miles distant, and parts of the road are ninety miles from the nearest railroad. (EISENHOWER REPORT)

In fact, one of the biggest problems was the poor state of the bridges along the Lincoln Highway. PHOTO: Army Truck testing the holding power of one of many small bridges crossed during the Army Transcontinental Motor Convoy, 1919. Eisenhower Library Audiovisual Department, photo 81-17-25.

Advance notice of the convoy spread and its arrival in towns along the Lincoln Highway were occasions for celebrations and plenty of speeches imploring listeners to demand more public funding for “Good Roads.” The convoy passed through 350 communities, and it was estimated that more than 3,000,000 people witnessed it along the route. Millions more followed the trek in newspapers and early motion picture “newsreels.” PHOTO: 1919 Army Transcontinental Motor Convoy on Review, Salt Lake City, Utah, 1919. Eisenhower Library Audiovisual Department, photo 81-17-55.

The convoy did make it. Battered, but unbowed, the caravan arrived at the gates of Lincoln Park in San Francisco. However, it had taken until September 6, 1919 for it to reach its destination, a grueling sixty-two (62) days!

In November 1919, Lieutenant Colonel Eisenhower wrote a seven-page report relaying the observations he made during the Army Convoy to the Chief of the Army’s Motor Transport Corps (M.T.C.). He summarized the results as follows:

The truck train was well received at all points along the route. It seemed that there was a great deal of sentiment for the improving of highways, and, from the standpoint of promoting this sentiment, the trip was an undoubted success. As stated before in this paper, it is believed that the M. T. C. should pay more attention to disciplinary drills for officers and men, and that all should be intelligent, snappy soldiers before giving them the responsibility of operating trucks. Extended trips by trucks through the middle western part of the United States are impracticable until roads are improved, and then only a light truck should be used on long hauls. Through the eastern part of the United States, the truck can be efficiently used in the Military Service, especially in problems involving a haul of approximately 100 miles, which could be negotiated by light trucks in one day. (EISENHOWER REPORT.)

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THE 1919 ARMY MOTOR CONVOY IN ILLINOIS

The 1919 Army Transcontinental Army Convoy crossed into Illinois on the afternoon of Saturday, July 19, 1919. It stopped the next day for a Sunday rest period in Chicago Heights. The trip was resumed on Monday July 21, 1919, and the convoy camped over that night in DeKalb. On Tuesday July 22, 1919, the convoy left DeKalb and crossed over the Mississippi River Bridge at Fulton, Illinois and entered into Iowa that evening.

During the two full days it spent on the road in Illinois, the convoy covered about 172 miles in a little over 21 hours on the road. It was fairly lucky with the weather and thus the roads, but as the following account from the convoy’s daily log reveals, it had its share of problems with the vehicles, drivers, and equipment in its journey across the Land of Lincoln.

(Read the official Army account of the convoy’s journey thru Illinois).

So basically from the 1950s right up until around 2008 when the Sub-Prime Mortgage Bubble popped, as the Industrial Jobs began to leave the country in the 1970s to go to Cheaper Labor Markets in places like Mexico, India and China, fairly decently paid work in the Construction Industry took their place. Many jobs even for highly paid well educated folks like Civil Engineers, Architects, Electrical Engineers, Plumbers et al, as every new Mall and every new Suburban Subdivision needed to be Wired Up and Plumbed to keep the Sanitation Decent. As the communities sprouted like mushrooms across the once Pristine Wilderness of the FSoA, Civil Service Goobermint workers in every field from Police Work to Sanitation workers to Teachers were necessary. Where did the MONEY come from to PAY all these people for these new JOBS in these new communities?

As with ALL money since the beginning of the Industrial Era (and really long before that, btu expanding exponentially through this period), the MONEY came from the Issuance of New Credit done by the folks who have controlled this since the beginning of the Colonial Era at the LATEST, the TBTF Banks and the small number of people who control them, often referred to here on the pages of the Diner as the “Illuminati”. In 1692 the Bank of England was Chartered, and despite a real lack of Precious Metals in England at that time, these folks issued CREDIT on what basically was all the resources of the New World they were set to exploit. They did not HAVE the “money” to issue out, they CREATED the money to issue out. Long as everyone under their Political Control HAD to use this money (“Legal Tender”) they could LOAN it to others, who then owed them Interest. Anyone on the Inside of this Scheme never really could go Broke, as they could always issue themselves newer and bigger Loans to further buy out the Resources, and the Flow Begins of this money through the economy. EVERYTGHING comes to depend on this flow of money, and constant INCREASE in the money supply otherwise the interest being charged cannot be paid up on. whenever a Contraction or even just a slowdown occurs, Depressions ensue, Deleveraging occurs and most of the population gets hung out to dry. this was the narrative pretty much from 1700 right through to the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Throughout the period of the post-Revolutionary War here in the FSoA, Credit was issued by Industrialists in Europe to first off exploit the Coal Resources here and ship them back to Europe to power their Factories, and then to further build out Industrial Infrastructure here. The Railroads were the essential component of this, because without them there was no moving the Coal from the mines of West Virginia to the Ports on the East Coast. So the Jobs of those days came in the form of Coal Mining and Railroad construction, and as the railroads expanded across the continent, new communities based on this new type of Industrial living popped up like Buboes across the landscape.

Still, it was basically an Agrarian Paradigm, with most people in the country engaged in local Agriculture, right up until the Great Depression. Reason for this is that it really was not until the 1920′s or so that the first ICE Tractors became available, and Ag was still very Human Labor intensive through the 1800s. Even going into the Great Depression in the 1930s, most estimates I have read put 90% of the population here living and working locally in the Ag paradigm.

For those who did not Own Land, up until the Civil War you had explicit Slavery for the imported African Labor force, so I don’t think you can really call what they did as a “Job”. During the Reconstruction period, you had Sharecroppers, and not sure this form of exploiting labor can be called a Job either.

Where what we think of now as Jobs being paid with Money emerged here was first in the Coal Mines and along the Railroad Tracks, work which was uniformly low paid and very dangerous also. Workers who performed these jobs were recruited from places like China and Ireland, where conditions for their populations were so bad at the time that just the CHANCE to come over here and work in one of these jobs was a step up, though for many it proved a disappointment for sure as they died in dangerous working conditions, and often had wages so low surviving on what you could buy from the Company Store was pretty difficult

The upshot of this period as the Factories began to pop up as well was a workforce that became increasingly Organized, with Labor making it’s first Battles here against the Capitalist class in control of Credit Creation, money, and by this time virtually all the worthwhile Property across the country.

In fact this battle started in Europe where the whole Industrial paradigm began, and Jobs (or lack of them) and ridiculously low pay and bad working conditions developed alternative ideas to the Capital Exploitation model. Specifically, Karl Marx and Friederich Engels developed the Communist model, which the Bolsheviks in Russia tried to implement, becoming increasingly bastardized over time. In fact that model was probably corrupt right from the get go, as Trotsky and Lenin likely got most of their funding for that Revolution from Industrialists in Germany and England.

Over here, as the Great Depression took hold, similar Movements towards Communism and Socialism began to gain traction, the Wobblies were a growing force, and everything possible was done to keep that movement from gaining traction. Labor Union was pitted against Labor Union, Union Bosses were paid off, the Pinkertons were brought in to disrupt Organization and physically threaten anyone organizing, and overall the Capitalist class was successful in destroying the Labor Movement in the FSoA as we moved into and past the Great Depression.

The Industrial Workers of the World (IWW or the Wobblies) is an international industrial union that was formed in 1905. The origin of the nickname “Wobblies” is uncertain.[3]

The IWW promotes the concept of “One Big Union“, contends that all workers should be united as a social class and that capitalism and wage labor should be abolished.[4] They are known for the Wobbly Shop model of workplace democracy, in which workers elect their managers[5] and other forms of grassroots democracy (self-management) are implemented. IWW membership does not require that one work in a represented workplace,[6] nor does it exclude membership in another labor union.[7]

In the 1910s and early ’20s, the IWW achieved many of their short-term goals, particularly in the American west, and cut across traditional guild and union lines to organize workers in a variety of trades and industries. At their peak in 1923, IWW membership has been estimated at about 40,000.[8] However, the extremely high rate of IWW membership turnover during this era (estimated at 133% per decade) makes it difficult to state membership totals with any certainty, as workers tended to join the IWW in large numbers for relatively short periods (e.g., during labor strikes and periods of generalized economic distress).[9]

Nonetheless, membership declined dramatically in the 1920s due to several factors. There were conflicts with other labor groups, particularly the American Federation of Labor (AFL) which regarded the IWW as too radical while the IWW regarded the AFL as too staid and conservative.[8] Membership also declined in the wake of government crackdowns on radical, anarchist and socialist groups during the First Red Scare after WWI. The most decisive factor in the decline in IWW membership and influence, however, was a 1924 schism due to internal conflict, from which the IWW never fully recovered.[8][10]

Compromises were made however, and the New Deal of Franklin Deleanor Roosevelt incorporated numerous salves to buy off the Working Class, primary among them the creation of the Social Security system. Unions also still retained decent power in the post WWII period as the Automotive Industry ramped up in the FSoA, and for a short while the Working Class Heros of Industrialization did OK here, from say 1950 to maybe 1970 or so, though you did have to usually have “Connections” to get inside any of the powerful Trade Unions of the Era.

Over time of course the Unions and their ability to negotiate a better wage for their workers has been systematically diminished, and on a Media level the whole IDEA of Unions and Collective bargaining has been subject to non-stop Bernays style propagandizing against, to the point through the 90s-00s that even the Blue Collar workers such collectives work best for were convinced they were bad. Go to any Kneejerk Conservatard Website like the one Mike “Mish” Shedlock runs on Global Economic Analysis, and you will find non-stop BLAME being placed on Unions as the Cause of all our problems. See folks, if we just got rid of those nasty Teacher’s Unions and Auto Unions and all those “Big” Pensions they negotiated over the years, we would have PROSPERITY again! LOL.

Prosperity for WHO? Certainly not Prosperity for the Pensioners who have their pensions ripped out from under them, that is for sure. Certainly not Prosperity for the next Generation of Workers either, who in order to keep our products “competitive” on the Global Market need to drop their Wages down to whatever it is the Chinese of Mexicans or Egyptians are getting these days, like $2/day there. the folks who PROSPER from reneging on Pensions are the Rentier Class, aka the Illuminati. See, they are the “Secured Bondholders”. gotta pay them off before you pay the pension of anyone who worked for the City of Detroit for the last 30 years. As the economic system which Industrialists used to build out their system falls apart here, they hang out to dry everyone who ever worked in the system in ANY capacity, from an Industrial Factory Worker to a Coal Miner to the Police Force of Detroit, who for near 100 years protected the “Property” these folks claimed to own, thoroughly polluted and then abandoned.

Same Bizness occurring over in China now, just at a vastly Accelerated Pace as first the Hot Money drops in there to “Create Jobs” in Industry, profit is sucked out on the back of cheap labor, the resource landscape of the country is destroyed and then when no more Profit can be pulled from this mess, they “Unwind the Carry Trade”, Newzpeak for the Rentier Class packing their bags and Private Jets with whatever they can and GTFO of Dodge, leaving the rest of the Chinese Population to die in the stinking sewer they made of that land mass.

http://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/Global/eastasia/photos/climate-energy/air-pollution-linfen-bicycle.jpg

Today, as we speak, this whole paradigm is coming to a close, for numerous reasons.

First off, there really is no NEW place to go to either exploit Resources or Exploit Labor to gain “Profit” for the individual or corporation that has not already been thoroughly sucked dry. Though there is still some fossil fuel energy left in the ground to extract, the energy cost for pulling it up comes ever closer each day to the cost the consumer of this energy can afford to pay. Without continuing expansion of Credit, there is no ‘money” flow to the end consumer, and while the Central Banks provide endless Quantitative Easing FREE CREDIT a ZIRP to their member TBTF Banks, said Banks do not pass this money on in the form of new loans to anybody further than one tier below their line. Do you think a lot of Individuals line up to buy a Facepalm IPO? Who are the “Investors” in Facepalm, and where do they get the money to invest in that piece of shit Social Media White Elephant? Faceplam has NEVER turned a Profit since the day Mark Suckerbug and the Winkletwins dreamed it up. Regardless, “investors” subscribed to the IPO to the tune of like $100B, least that is around where the Market Cap is here I think. Where did they GET $100B to “invest” in Facepalm? They BORROWED it from the Federal Reserve, rehypothecating worthless MBS as collateral to invest here. This is the circle jerk of money creation, and folks on the inside get fabulously wealthy off of it, but everybody else gets screwed to beat the band here. Constant investment in ultimately non-productive and worthless enterprise that simply burns energy faster all the time, until there is nothing left to burn, which we are not at yet but getting closer to all the time. Ongoing here really since the very first Railroad Tracks were laid here in the FSoA in the early 1800s.

So, in the final analysis, this is where all the “JOBS” came from. Money created as Debt to exploit the resources of the New World, accessing a fabulous wealth of stored energy, first from Coal, then following that from Oil. Every last “Job” that has been created through the era all comes from the downhill flow of this energy as it is burned, and with less and less available to burn all the time, there are fewere and fewer Jobs to be had that depend on the burning of this energy. Politicos calls for a “Return to Growth” are a chimera, there is no growth, really there has not been for 30 years here or so. The “growth” you see is Numerical Smoke & Mirrors, pretty arbitrary numbers overall that get bigger all the time, while the population at large gets poorer all the time. The FSoA population has been getting steadily poorer under this paradigm, but not until now has it really been evident, masked well by Financialism and control over the Global Reserve Currency of the Dollar.

Besides the fact there is no new place to GO to exploit resource and labor, the result of 200 years of this shit is that we are now Neck Deep in our own sewage, with far too many people on the planet who have opportunity for truly productive things to do with their lives and who are pretty much 100% Dependent on the system continuing onward for their own survival. Willfully trying to exit the system while it continues to function is close to impossible in most places, really you have to go way out into the bush to even try something like this, and few people are prepared to do that these days.

Those of us who are engaged in building the SUN Project see all of these things quite clearly. There are no easy answers, no simple ways to exit, and a “Crash on Demand” by a large percentage of the population walking away from Industrialization simultaneously is unlikely to occur as a willfull thing, though it may happen organically quite rapidly if the current systems fail rapidly in cascade fashion.

For those of us involved in SUN, we seek to redefine the ideas of Jobs, Work & Money. Jobs as we have known them through the Industrial Era are already going the way of the Dinosaur, and as Bruce Springstein write in “My Hometown”, they ain’t ever coming back.

We don’t NEED no Stinkin’ JOBs, and we don’t NEED the Debt Money pitched out here by the Illuminati for the last 200 years of Industrialization either. Like the “Assets” this money created, it is all going quite Worthless now. What we NEED is to work together, to build our communities, to work for the common good of our Species and the Planet we live on. We are rapidly running short on time here to make such changes in anything but the most Painful Way conceivable, and Heliopaths seek to avoid such a nasty endgame, if not for everyone, at least for those who see what is coming and wish to do the best they can to avoid it with us.

Perhaps you think this is all useless, it is too late already and the End is Written in Stone. If so, I wish you well and I will see you in the Great Beyond when we all get there. I personally am not concerned with whether the End is Written in Stone or not, because that does not materially affect the way I approach this End Game. Maybe I will go down, maybe my friends will go down too. However, if that is how it plays out, we will GO DOWN SWINGING.

IT AIN’T OVAH TILL THE FAT LADY SINGS!

http://accountingprofessor.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/fatlady.jpg

SEE YOU ON THE OTHER SIDE

RE

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Alaska Springtime in January Photo Essay

Off the keyboard and camera of RE

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Published on the Doomstead Diner on January 26, 2013

Melted Lake

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Discuss this article at the Environment Table inside the Diner

http://www.mytrendyphone.co.uk/images/Foldable-Bluetooth-Keyboard-for-iPhone-iPad-Smartphone-Tablet-PC-20122013-1.jpghttp://g-ec2.images-amazon.com/images/G/01/electronics/camera/Samsung/Aplus2013/samsung-nx300-white-img1-l.jpgI picked up a new High Tech Gizmo this last week, a Compact Camera System from my favorite South Korean Appleshit Competitor, Samsung. In my last Smart Phone purchase, I ditched my Iphone for a Samsung Galaxy Mega, which is a confabulation of a Phone and Tablet called a Phablet. It’s actually big enough to web surf on and not strain your eyes, and I have a little Folding Keyboard for it also so I can actually WRITE on the thing, and not peck out TXT messages with my thumbs.

My extreme happiness with this new Smart Phone plus the fact several of us Diners are getting together down in Texas Droughtland for our first Convocation and Meeting for developing the SUN Project impelled me to looking into Upgrading my El Cheapo Sony Cybershot camera which is about 5 years old now and WAY out of date for a newer and better camera to record the Convocation proceedings. Said proceedings to include a week long Workshop Course we are all taking at Monolithic Domes, to learn how to build these sturdy Ferrocement domiciles.

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I considered dropping back into Single Lens Reflex cameras like the Nikon F2 I used back in my years as Photography Editor for the Columbia Spectator. They are “DSLR” now, Digital Single Lens Reflex. The Professional models from Nikon and Canon run $3000 and Up just for the Camera Body, and this not including the Lens Kit you buy for yourself. Anybody who ever got into Photography either in the Film Era or the Digital era should know what a Rabbit Hole and Money Pit you get into when you go into this Hobby.

I’m not a Professional Photographer though, and never intend to be one at this stage of my life, though I thought about it for a while early on in my Career Jumping lifestyle. I just want a better Camera system to use for Sprucing up my Websites with HQ Pics and Vids. So after a bunch of research on what is now available, I decided on the NX300 Compact Camera System from Samsung. Besides the fact it is competitive on an image level with much more expensive DSLRs, it marries up to the Samsung Galaxy Mega Phablet through WiFi, and all in all is just a fabulous technological marvel.

This article though is not meant to be a Camera Review though, it’s about one of my first Test Uses for the camera as I get back into the world of Amateur Photography. One of the other Diners who will be attending the Convocation IS a professional photographer, and recently upgraded her system to a Canon 5D Mark III, a medium-high end DSLR. We are going to have a Friendly Competition for Image Making at the Convocation. To get ready for this Challenge, I need to Practice with the camera, since my skills are a tad RUSTY after around a Quarter Century of Atrophy.

The subject I chose today for some practice was the EXTRAORDINARILY BIZARRE weather we have been experiencing this January up here on the Last Great Frontier. The Winter started off fairly normal, but going through December unlike all the previous years I have lived here we got NO Sub-Zero days. Decent snowfall though, so it looked like a typical Winter here, snow covered roads, small mountains of Plowed Snow in Parking Lots, etc.

This all STOPPED though about a week ago now though, when the temps went ABOVE Freezing, and the snow collected thus far began to melt. And KEPT ON MELTING. Rainy days, days in the 40s, this has basically washed away now about 90% of the snow accumulated to date, in JANUARY! This sort of Snow Melt doesn’t happen here until March at the earliest usually. So with my new NX300 utilizing just the 20-50mm lens I bought it with (did not switch to the 50-200mm lens I also got for this session), I went on a Documentary Tour of the Matanuska-Susitna River Valley to show what the NEW NORMAL is like up here, with Springtime in January.

3 Stumps

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Blue Trailer Trash

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Bright Wires

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House in the Trees

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Lake House

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Winter Blacktop

SAMSUNG CSC

It is amazing how non-chalant people are about this up here. “Isn’t this odd”, they say.

I’m like, no it’s not odd if you PAID ATTENTION to the actual data that has been coming out and stopped buying the spin pitched at you by your favorite Talk Show Denier.

Folks, that Lake has never been Ice free before March for as long as I lived here. That Parking Lot is always Snow Covered with HUGE MOUNTAINS of plowed snow. There is NO WAY you could see the House in the Trees, every little branch would have snow on it. Those Stumps should be under at least a foot of packed snow.

I made some jokes about opening a Club Med up here a while back. It’s no joke. We got into the 90s last summer. I think we may make Triple Digits this year.

This climatic change is not uniform by any means. Inside the Diner, WHD reports steady Sub-Zero temperatures in his Habitat of Minnesota:

It’ll be -18F again, Monday. Might have a few days this week in a row, when the temp does not get above 0F. More snow too, than I’ve seen @ this time, in awhile. It will be curious to see about damage to my fruit trees and vines. Wind howling lately too, like it usually does in the spring and the fall. Clear skies and howling winds.

Nuts.

Nuts indeed. With Uber Cold temperatures in MN, while you are getting a Sub-Tropical Winter in AK, are you looking at Global Warming or Global Cooling? DENIERS will latch onto every story of Frigid Temps in the Mid-West as Evidence we don’t have a Global Warming trend in progress. Temps in the atmosphere in any given location do not really tell the story well of the Climate Change though. Really, “Climate Change” does not do justice to what is underway here, it is more like “Climate UPHEAVAL“.

While the temps up here in the Northern Hemisphere are doing a major Tap Dance, down in Oz in their SUMMER they are pitching out temps that are going +50C. Folks, that is 122F.

7329726802_f8ab96096d_b

A heatwave that has enveloped much of Australia for the past couple weeks is reaching a breaking point, but not after first smashing temperature records.

On Thursday, parts of inland Australia reached temperatures around 50 degrees Celsius, or 122 degrees Fahrenheit, before a shifting air mass is forecast to bring weekend temperatures back to averages in the mid-30s. There were reports of temperatures as high as 54 degrees Celsius, 129 degrees Fahrenheit, in the outback on Thursday.

120+ is some fucking HOT shit, and really not even DEATH VALLEY in the FSoA gets that hot, at least not in past years. Nobody lives long in those temperatures, so if that is the long term course for the Globe, we are all TOAST for sure.

Speaking of Death Valley, what is happening in Sunny California and surrounding mountains these days? Here contributed by Agelbert on the Diner are Sattelite Photos from 2013 and 2104 showing the Snowpack in the Rockies.

Where is the runoff going to come from this summer into CA to irrigate the farmland there? Not like they normally get much rainfall in the summer there, so without the Snowpack to tide them over, water is going to be pretty thin there by around June or so, fuhgettaboutit in August.

The OTHER place they get their water from, Lake Mead which dams up the Colorado River with the Hoover Dam is not looking too good either!

http://scienceprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/lake_mead_591.jpg

When you talk Lake Mead and the Hoover Dam, you are not just talking the Water Issue, you got a POWER issue here also. Electricity from the Hoover Dam powers all those Vegas Lights on the Strip, not to mention the PUMPS that move Lake Mead water over the Rockies to the CA Lettuce Fields. Also powers numerous Plasma TVs and Internet Routers in SoCal.

There is something like 15′ left of leeway now between when the water level in Lake Mead is sufficient to drive the Turbines that generate that power, and when they begin to Cavitate. That happens when air bubbles start getting mixed in with the water, and the managers HAVE to shut them down when that point comes. The equipment will blow itself apart if left to run.

Can the Electricity from Hoover be REPLACED with Fossil Fuel energy? Maybe short term it can, but even if it can it makes the Water Bill a whole lot more than those Farmers can afford to pay, or the consumers of the lettuce can afford to pay either. They are OUTTA BIZ.

This does not of course resolve the issue of whether we have a Global Warming or Cooling event in progress, only that it is VERY obvious we have enormous climate changes underway which affect total rainfall and the ability of given water systems to replenish themselves. To resolve that question, as I see it you need to look not at the Atmospheric temps, but at the OCEAN Temps. The Ocean is a far bigger Heat Sink for energy than the Atmosphere is. It contains MOST of the Gibbs Free Energy extant in the system. It is patently OBVIOUS Ocean Heat Energy has been on a steady increase here for more than 20 years.

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/indicators/ocean-heat-content.gif

How much of the causation for this is Anthropogenic resultant from Fossil Fuel burning and how much is resultant from Geotectonic causes of Earthquakes and Volcanoes is an open question, but either way the Ocean contains an ORDER OF MAGNITUDE more heat energy today than it did in 1990. that energy transfers into the atmosphere in the form of Cyclonic Storms, read that Sandy on the East Coast of the FSoA and Haiyan in the Phillipines.

http://www.geneva.edu/docs/IO/21693/philippines-typhoon-haiyan.jpg

Even IF the overall Global Temps don’t start exceeding 50C everywhere, you got a LOT of places right now that are facing extremes they never saw before, least so long as Homo Sapiens has been recording them. Much like the Stock Market, what you got here is EXTREME VOLATILITY. Very difficult to plan for any kind of Ag Growing when you do not know WTF will come from one year to the next, Drought this year, Floods the next; Hard Freeze this year, Heat Wave the next, etc.

Where to GO, what to DO in such a situation, eh? Do you simply wait it out where you ARE, and hope for the Best? I think that would be a BAD IDEA in Sunny California right now. JMHO. Not looking too good in Northern Oz either. China? Fuck the Weather, the SMOG will kill you first!

http://latimesphoto.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/la-china-smog01.jpg

Escape gets tougher all the time here, and figuring out just how to handle what is quite obviously major change in the overall environment is none too easy a task either! More than a few folks have given up on the idea that ANYBODY can survive the combination of environmental & man made catastrophes we now face, and are convinced a NEAR TERM HUMAN EXTINCTION is in the offing. Maybe so, when you gather together all this shit in aggregate it sure does not look too good for the Away Team. As Guy McPherson puts it, Earth is the Home Team, and NATURE BATS LAST.

This may be true, but it is not our meme on the Diner. I can’t really speak for the rest of the Diners who all really have quite their own interpretation on the subject, but as for me, it is irrelevant if in the end Extinction is in the offing. For me,. between NOW and Extinction is the battle I choose to fight. Matters not whether I win or lose the battle either, so long as I Fight with HONOR. No quitting here, no Hospicing, no Kubler-Ross Acceptance of Grief either. Fight until the breath leaves your body. Never say die, never quit.

The CREDO of the Heliopath. It Ain’t OVAH till the Fat Lady Sings.

http://accountingprofessor.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/fatlady.jpg

RE

_______________

6 February through 10 February 2014, Full slate events in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Thursday, 6 February 2014, 7:00 p.m., West End Cultural Centre, 586 Illice Avenue at Sherbrook, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, “Straight Talk About Climate Change”

Sunday, 9 February 2014, 3:00 p.m., Book-reading and -signing, McNally Robinson Book Sellers, Grant Park in the Atrium, 1120 Grant Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Thursday, 20 February 2014, 5:15 p.m., Singer room, Eugene Public Library, 100 West 10th Avenue, Eugene, Oregon, “Climate Chaos & Resistance to Ecocide: Talks by Guy McPherson and Deep Green Resistance”

Friday, 21 February 2104, 7:00 p.m., Vancouver Public Library, 901 C Street Vancouver, Washington, “Climate Chaos & Resistance to Ecocide: Talks by Guy McPherson and Deep Green Resistance”

Saturday, 22 February 2014, 7:00 p.m., Bellingham Public Library, 210 Central Avenue Bellingham, Washington, “Climate Chaos”

Monday, 24 February 2014, 7:00 p.m., Odd Fellows Hall, 112 Haven Road, Eastsound, Washington (on Orcas Island), “Climate Chaos”

Wednesday, 26 February 2014, 7:00 p.m., San Juan Island Library, 1010 Guard Street, Friday Harbor, Washington

Thursday, 27 February 2014, 7:00 p.m., King’s Books, 218 St. Helens Ave, Tacoma, Washington, reading excerpts and signing Going Dark (donation for space and expenses appreciated)

Friday, 28 February 2014, 7:00 p.m., Traditions Cafe, 300 5th Avenue SW, Olympia, Washington, “How Shall We Act in Light of Climate Chaos?”

The Next Step: Living Courageously in a World of Transition, a 7-day seminar, 24-31 May 2014, Moho Creek, Belize, Central America.

The Next Step: Living Courageously in a World of Transition, a 14-day seminar, 12-25 June 2014, Izabal, Guatemala, Central America.

_______________

Going Dark is available from the publisher here, from Amazon here, from Amazon on Kindle here, from Barnes & Noble on Nook here, and as a Google e-book here. Going Dark was reviewed by Carolyn Baker at Speaking Truth to Power and by more than 15 readers at Amazon.

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140 Responses to “Two essays by RE”

  1. Henry Says:

    RE. — just a quick hit from a scrappy keyboard. Your site kicked me into gear reading about the WWOOFers, and now a family member is interested in going to learn those essential survival skills. Thank you!

    Whether the last humans number a million, a thousand, or zero, there’s a good chance these small, widely distributed farms will be among the final few. Thus, thinking through a plan to network with them to upgrade their survival tools might be an optimal adjunct to the SUN plan.

  2. Artleads Says:

    “…but as for me, it is irrelevant if in the end Extinction is in the offing. For me,. between NOW and Extinction is the battle I choose to fight. Matters not whether I win or lose the battle either, so long as I Fight with HONOR. No quitting here, no Hospicing, no Kubler-Ross Acceptance of Grief either. Fight until the breath leaves your body. Never say die, never quit.”

    Thanks. I guess you give the maxed out, super-duper informed version of what I’m saying.

    Not sure about “fight” though. We see the futility of all those valiant labor union fights that make David and Goliath look like a fair match. And here is where it got to. No more “fighting,” subversion next time.
    ——-

    Without vision the people perish. So what’s the problem? No vision.
    ——–

    Land use determines the state of the environment. True when I first said it 25 years ago, true today. But today the problems it could address are far more daunting. And, of course, hardly anybody realizes that land use determines the state of the environment.
    ——–

    One of my challenges from a former life was convincing planners and public that a cul de sac ingress for an acre with 5 new houses (that were way too big in any case) didn’t have to be 36′ wide. That national standard was mandated by cold war requirement to get tanks around to every last little corner of the land.
    ——–

    https://www.youtube.com/embed/a6W2ZMpsxhg?feature=player_embedded

  3. Roger Ellis Says:

    The graph posted here about ocean temp rise is disingenuous at best without the caveat of TIME LAG.

    Take about cherry picking and lying by omission.

    The ‘dip’ in ocean temp from approx the 60-70′s is the TIME LAG of about approx 30 YEARS from THE GREAT DEPRESSION where industrial output tanked worldwide. And by worldwide in the 1930′s, it just meant Russia, Europe and the US. There was no China or Brazil or India spewing CO2.

    The RISE in the ocean temp during the 70-80′s is the phucking 30 year TIME LAG for WORLD WAR II and COLD WAR and KOREAN WAR where, drum roll, DUH, industrial production spiked higher than ANY time in HUMAN HISTORY.

    The languid sideways ocean temps of the the 80-90′s is the TIME LAG from the end of the Korean War up to the start of the Vietnam War corresponding to the slump in activity of the late 50′s thru the early 60′s.

    The massive industrial build up for the Vietnam War and it’s counter points in China and Russia as they play ‘catchup’ the US in grinding the worlds natural resources into military industrial spew.

    Note the beginning of the Reagan Reign of Terror in 1980.

    This was the beginning of global ponzi financialization and the Final Rape of the Earth.

    We are seeing today in 2014 the CO2 effects of 30 YEARS AGO at THE BEGINNING of that buildup of global hydrocarbon addiction in the 80′s

    To leave out the TIME LAG is not a slight oversight.

    It’s gross ignorance of how CO2 works in earth science.

  4. 44 south Says:

    Death in paradise.
    This is how fast things can change, six weeks ago my little farm had so many rabbits it was keeping me awake at night wondering what I was going to do, and thinking what a rod for the back compassion can be. Despite having been a proffessional hunter in my youth, I hate killing anything these days.
    Well no need to worry over that problem now. Nearly all the rabbits are gone and I expect to be rabbit free in a few days. A virus has come back after a two year absence and done its work. A problem is gone but so to a premium protein, should it have been needed.
    I hope when my time comes I can go out as quietly as the rabbits have gone. I think however there may be more wailing and nashing of teeth.

    Can anyone explain what happens when the Gulf Stream weakens enough to give Great Britain the big freeze, what happens in the Arctic? Does it refreeze for a long period or a few years or what. Some denialist is bound to ask and I don’t know the answer. Now will this post?

  5. RE Says:

    Time Lag. This is where I put my tea kettle on the stove today and 30 years later the water boils.

    Meanwhile back in the last thread UF tells us to look at how fast Arctic temps are rising due to clathrates being released NOW.

    Back in the prior thread as well, Guy indicated a complete collapse of the phytoplankton would occur a 4C, except complete collapse did not occur in the PETM, rather there was adaptation of the phytoplankton through the period.

    “The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ca. 55.8 Ma) is thought to coincide with a profound but entirely transient change among nannoplankton communities throughout the ocean. Here we explore the ecology of nannoplankton during the PETM by using multivariate analyses of a global data set that is based upon the distribution of taxa in time and space. We use these results, coupled with stable isotope data and geochemical modeling, to reinterpret the ecology of key genera. The results of the multivariate analyses suggest that the community was perturbed significantly in coastal and high-latitudes sites compared to the open ocean, and the relative influence of temperature and nutrient availability on the assemblage varies regionally. The open ocean became more stratified and less productive during the PETM and the oligotrophic assemblage responded primarily to changes in nutrient availability. Alternatively, assemblages at the equator and in the Southern Ocean responded to temperature more than to nutrient reduction. In addition, the assemblage change at the PETM was not merely transient—there is evidence of adaptation and a long-term change in the nannoplankton community that persists after the PETM and results in the disappearance of a high-latitude assemblage. The long-term effect on communities caused by transient warming during the PETM has implications for modern-day climate change, suggesting similar permanent changes to nannoplankton community structure as the oceans warm. ”

    http://paleobiol.geoscienceworld.org/content/39/4/628.abstract

    Besides this, even with a 40% reduction in phytoplankton, we don’t yet see any significant changes to total O2 content in the atmosphere, which is a result of how large the system is versus how fast the input-output cycle goes. In any event, even if you got complete phytoplaknton wipeout in 30 years, it still would take another 30 after that for oxygen to deplete out of the atmosphere to such a point everybody suffocates. That puts us at 2074 or so, well past mid-century so so much for the timeline prediction. An end of century ELE for HS seems a more reasonable estimate.

    Hey, do I get a bye on the 2 posts a day rule for this one since I wrote the articles? :)

    RE

  6. RE Says:

    “Whether the last humans number a million, a thousand, or zero, there’s a good chance these small, widely distributed farms will be among the final few. Thus, thinking through a plan to network with them to upgrade their survival tools might be an optimal adjunct to the SUN plan.”-H

    Definitely a part of what we are doing with SUN is Networking people who are involved in this already, as well as educating people on means and methods. Have you looked at our PEN Education Software yet? Still in the development stage, but we are looking for feedback.

    http://PermEdu.Net

    Note: My additional commentary can be found in the Overflow Thread on the Forum

    http://guymcpherson.com/forum/index.php?topic=522.0

    RE

  7. ulvfugl Says:

    Excuse me, RE, but you don’t seem to have a very good grasp of some of this stuff, and I didn’t mention the clathrates, I just said methane. It might be coming from clathrates, it might be coming from other sources, or from both. It’s not clear, but it appears to me to be rising steadily.

    That warming you’ve got in Alaska seems to extend right around to Siberia, which means all that permafrost will be melting and releasing CO2 and methane. There’s sufficient there to put an end to us all without having to worry about the phytoplankton. Check the numbers yourself.

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/Climate-Change-The-40-Year-Delay-Between-Cause-and-Effect.html

  8. mt Says:

    @RE
    Let’s pretend you are correct. How do you and your group feel about the billions and billions of dead everywhere? Drink up—eat up….

  9. Roger Ellis Says:

    The Pacific waters to the east of the Philippines are getting really hot, even at depth. This will feed the rotation force of cyclones hitting the western Pacific rim.

    But those hot Pacific waters are also the feedstock for the current tsunami of warm air pouring into the Arctic and cutting the Polar vortex asunder.

    Hey, I guess it’s now a Bi-polar vortex, (haha) metaphorically matching the homo sapien sapien’s bi-polar inbred mental capacity.

    From Wiki on the PETM:

    [Methane release] can take place over as short of a period as a few thousand years. The reverse process, that of fixing methane in clathrates, occurs over a larger scale of tens of thousands of years.

    Positive feedbacks tend to respond much more quickly than negative feedbacks.

    Melting permafrost vs carbon sequestration into the ocean floor is an example. It’s lopsided so if you change the temperature too quickly (like what is happening NOW), the stabilizing effect of any negative feedbacks is limited in the near term and very, very much slower to recover.

    The majority studying the PETM say there was significantly less methane deposit then than we have currently.

    So there is more to release quickly.

    Picture a cross-section of the arctic ocean near the land masses. Frozen underwater peat and just plain old methane plus clathrates deposits, all held in check for millennium by frozen sediment/soil covered by layer of very cold water and capped by meters of solid ice as far as the eye can see.

    Melt the ice CHECK

    Heat up the arctic ocean with warm currents from both the north Pacific and the north Atlantic CHECK

    Heat up the arctic ocean further with the Sun beating down on now blue for six months 24/7 (the sun doesn’t set in the summer) CHECK

    Heat up the arctic ocean even further with hot melt water from all the rivers and watersheds draining into the arctic ocean. CHECK

    Thaw the frozen sediment/soil so much it cracks producing untold avenue of escape for methane to now bubble up thru. CHECK

    The ‘rebound effect’ from land masses suddenly released from the pressure of ice sheets disappearing above them causing tectonic activity to spike cracking the ‘methane shield cap’ even further. CHECK

    This present warm up event is at least a magnitude faster than the PETM one. CHECK

    I guess the only thing to add to the Clusterfuck, the Cherry on the Sundae so to speak, would be a 11 km/second asteroid crashing into the arctic sea.

    Then we monkeys could say it wasn’t our fault.

    What a pitiful gaggle of creatures humans are, truly pitiful.

    A Naked Lunch for the Naked Ape.

    Perverse, disjointed and finally incoherent.

    A just dessert for an unjust species.

  10. Robin Datta Says:

    you don’t seem to have a very good grasp of some of this stuff,

    That lack of grasp helps in maintaining the sanguine attitude. Thanks for the link. The topics have been discussed threadbare on NBL so many times that bringing them up again borders on the inane, but the link is a good one.

    And in any case, let us remember the Greek barber whose shop was in an upscale neighbourhood at the height of the Roman Empire. His clientele included many Latin scholars and intellectuals who conducted erudite discussions and debates in his premises. Although he understood no Latin, he was unerringly able to indicate who was correct. When asked how he did this, he answered “By excluding the one who raises his voice first”.

  11. logspirit Says:

    Roundup ‘Weed Killer’ Threatens Coral Reefs, Persists In Seawater

    The coral reefs are dying and the seas are increasingly depleted of sea life. Could Roundup ‘weed killer’ be partially to blame?

    A highly concerning new study published in the journal Marine Pollution Bulletin indicates that the world’s most popular herbicide glyphosate (aka Roundup), used primarily in GM agriculture, is particularly resistant to biodegradation in coral reef collected sea water, and could therefore be a major contributor to the decline of marine coral reef systems such as the Great Barrier Reef. …

    In the new study titled, “Glyphosate persistence in seawater,” Australian marine researchers describe “increasing concern over the global loss of corals and seagrass and this has been particularly well documented for the World Heritage listed Great Barrier Reef…” …

    Despite previous assurances by both the manufacturer (Monsanto) and regulatory bodies that glyphosate is safe to the environment and highly biodegradable, an increasingly alarming body of experimental data on glyphosate’s toxicity indicates that the chemical is extremely toxic, exhibiting potentially carcinogenic endocrine disrupting activity in the parts-per-trillion concentration range, as well as a laundry list of multiple modes of toxicity to animal life.

    [For the full article with other links click the title.]

    ~~~

    Meanwhile… there is stumbling in the darkness, cursing in the darkness, breaking of candles instead of lighting them. Ignorantly holding on to ignorance, holding on to incorrect but familiar perceptions. Refusing to learn what they don’t want to know, don’t want to hear. It takes maturity to do that, but our culture is infantile. Physical adults continue to drink milk and seek toys, oblivious to their impact, thrilled with temporary pseudo-satisfaction of imbued false status. The genuine reaction is revulsion, not envy.

  12. B9K9 Says:

    RE, nice treatise – you covered all the major elements. I must say, there are very, very few who understand the total dynamic. I earned my rep years ago @ ZH laying out the facts of life.

    And yet … what is the point of your analysis? You correctly diagnose what is occurring, yet seemingly revert to tired, repetitive ‘progressive’ solutions as some kind of counter.

    So I ask yet again: is there no one who wants to grasp the brass rail for one final hoorah? To drink the best wine, eat the best food, and nail the most attractive ladies?

    If you know, and I mean, absolutely know, how this is going to play out, then where’s the risk? The only possible variable is (a) do they come clean with reality before laying down the law; or (b) do they continue to fake it?

    Either way gets you to the same place; that is, price controls, travel restrictions, resource (asset) seizures, income levies, rationing of critical resources/care, etc.

    The question people are going to have to address is: do they want to be a functionary or a victim? Was it better to be a Nazi bureaucrat or a death camp prisoner?

    It’s obvious what’s coming down the pike. I think when the shoaling fish bolt (millions upon millions of people finally getting a clue), the opportunity to feather one’s own nest will be unparalleled.

  13. RE Says:

    In order to comply with the 2 posts/day rule, I am making all my replies to the commentary in the Overflow thread on the Forum.  I’ll update them all together as a single post in the Blog Commentary.

    Paranthetically, the 2 posts/day rule puts the Contrarian to Group Think on a website at an extreme disadvantage. 5 Group Thinkers can all drop in saying similar things for a total of 10 posts, while the Contrarian only has 2 opportunities to rebut.  The Forum resolves this problem to an extent, but not completely.

    RE

    RE’s Daily Recap
    2 RE Essays Overflow
    « Reply #24 on: Today at 02:05:50 PM »
    If it is a 40 year delay, then the decrease in Ocean Heat Content from 1960-1970 does NOT correlate with the Great Depression.  It correlates with the Roaring 20s from 1920-1930 when Industrial production was rising.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #26 on: Today at 02:30:17 PM »

    The average global surface temperature is a 40 year delay.

    So it should be 40 more years before increasing methane has an effect on surface temperature, it shouldn’t be affecting it now.  Rising temps in the Arctic region should be resultant from what occurred 40 years ago by this theory, not what is occurring now.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #27 on: Today at 02:46:09 PM »
    BTW, the 40 year lag time theory is a kludge that makes the assumption that Atmospheric warming is leading Ocean Warming, not the other way round.

    The more likely explanation is that Ocean Warming is leading Atmospheric warming and is the main driver in the process.  The furthest back I can find a record of this for is to around 1945.

    As you can see, in the period from around 1945 to 1970 Heat Content for the Oceans was bouncing around below the mean.  However in the corresponding period 1905 to 1930, Industrial Production was ramping up. So there is no direct correlation between Industrial Production and Ocean Heat Content.

    This is much more likely a Geotectonic affect which correlates to the amount of energy released each year through global earthquakes and vulcanism.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #30 on: Today at 03:09:27 PM »
    Quote from: mt

    @RE
    Let’s pretend you are correct. How do you and your group feel about the billions and billions of dead everywhere? Drink up—eat up…

    The objective of SUN is to end up with fewer people on the Near Term Death Roll.  I’d like to see as few Dead People as possible here.  The Motto is “Save As Many As You Can“, with the knowledge that you cannot Save Them All.

    However, there are a few people I have no interest in Saving.  Generally speaking they work on Wall Street or the City of London.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #31 on: Today at 03:18:24 PM »

    Both of these sources of CO2 and methane are unstoppable. Once they start they are self-reinforcing. More CO2 and methane cause more warming causes more melting.

    Said sources of Methane and CO2 existed prior to the PETM and were released, thus leading to the Warming of that period.  However, it was not Unstoppable, as over time the system reversed direction and the methane and CO2 was sequestered again.

    The main question is whether it is possible for HS to survive as a species if temps reach the level of the PETM, which seems likely at this point.  We probably need to move partially underground for a few millenia, however we can take some time in making this transition as the surface temps in some regions should be survivable for the next century or so.

    I have an old mine here in the Mat Valley scoped out to start fitting out with Hydroponics.  8)

    RE
    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #32 on: Today at 09:10:58 PM »
    Quote from: RE

    The majority studying the PETM say there was significantly less methane deposit then than we have currently.

    In that case, the additional methane present now would have had to been manufactured by earth processes and sequestered.  So any methane released in the aftermath of this warming also can be sequestered by the same processes that sequestered it in the first place.

    It’s quite obvious you are dealing here with geophysical phenomena that occur whether HS is present or not.  Clathrates melt and refreeze. We can accelerate the processes through the burning of fossil fuels, but we can’t do it once it becomes negative eroei to mine and burn what remains of the FFs.  This is likely inside the next 5 years.

    Following that, we likely have warming continue up to the PETM, at which point whatever took all that carbon OUT of the atmosphere and sequestered it is likely to kick in again.

    Whether HS can survive through such a period is questionable of course, but most certainly none of the QUITTERS here will make it through.   Even if we can’t make it through the Zero Point though, it’s a marvelous CHALLENGE to try to figure out how to do it and is a lot more entertaining than throwing a non-stop Grief Party, which is highly depressing all around. :P

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #33 on: Today at 09:38:37 PM »
    Quote from: B9

    If you know, and I mean, absolutely know, how this is going to play out, then where’s the risk? The only possible variable is (a) do they come clean with reality before laying down the law; or (b) do they continue to fake it?

    2 Risks.  First, you don’t know with 100% certainty how long this will take to play out, so if it is longer than your life expectancy otherwise making a bad choice could shorten up your time left walking the earth.

    2nd, the folks eating canapes in the Hamptons and stuffing Ford Model noses full of Bolivian Flake are likely to end up strung up by their Gonads.  Or they will get an Offer they Cannot Refuse, as apparently 3 Banksters got in the last week and bought their own tickets to the Great Beyond.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #34 on: Today at 09:52:31 PM »
    Quote from: RD

    Although he understood no Latin, he was unerringly able to indicate who was correct. When asked how he did this, he answered “By excluding the one who raises his voice first”.

    That methodology would not allow you to determine who was correct, only who was incorrect.

    RE

  14. Tom Says:

    Things change. That former 40 year lag, with all the additional CO2 and now methane – is probably no longer 40 years (and probably hasn’t been since the industrial revolution began, when it might have been even longer). We’re quibbling over past events and arguing about models – the map is not the terrain. You can have all the hopium and fight all you want, but as long as civilization keeps pumping out humans and CO2 (and all the other pollution, especially the radiation) our trajectory is quickly going from slightly downward (in terms of habitat and quality of life) to a more pronounced decline with no effort whatsoever to reverse or stop it from us “wise apes.”

    Look, no one wants this to be the case, but we’ve been ignoring the signs for way too long (this was all happening back when I was in college in the 60′s) and pointed out then by Ehrlich (who was ridiculed) and Carson (who was “worked around” by the corporate money-people with no concern for anything else but their own status and wealth gathering). Now it’s time to pay the piper and nothing is going to change that. Whether we have a century or 40 years left, or even a few decades, what we do now won’t help and the problems are so vast and interrelated that we’re bound to just make matters worse by “pulling out all the stops” to save our own hides. Do your best to fight the downward trend, try hydroponics (how’s that work when the atmosphere becomes toxic and you can’t find any clean potable water to work with?), and permaculture and all the rest – i’m doing it too (just so you know) – but don’t expect to escape the complete loss of all the species we once took for granted and relied on for our comfort (like trees, fish, land animals, birds, etc).

    We’re finding it more and more difficult to produce ANY food, let alone enough for going on 8 billion people. That’s not going to change, especially since governments aren’t paying any attention to this and continuing business as usual (until they can’t). So, yeah, go for yourself and whatever small community you can support – hell, I am too – just don’t get your hopes up, or you’ll be disappointed as well as dead.

  15. Tom Says:

    Here’s another graph:

    http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2014/02/toxic-mercury-pollution-rising-with.html

    Toxic mercury pollution rising with Arctic meltdown

    (Scientific American) – Cracks in sea ice are funneling additional mercury to the Arctic surface, raising concerns about the toxic element seeping into the food chain of the delicate ecosystem, according to a new study.

    The research, published yesterday in Nature, finds that channels of open water in Arctic ice, known as leads, are stirring up air so that mercury is pumped from higher in the atmosphere to air close to the surface. Warming temperatures are increasing the amount of seasonal sea ice that melts every summer, which in turn helps create the leads, said study lead author Christopher Moore, an assistant research professor at the Desert Research Institute.

    “As more and more of that seasonal sea ice is around as the Arctic changes, then there is the potential that this mechanism can occur over a larger and larger area,” said Moore. Environment Canada, the Desert Research Institute and NASA jointly funded the research.

    He emphasized that the new study does not definitively make conclusions that additional mercury is getting deposited on snow or ice or entering the food chain. Much more research is needed to outline what is ultimately happening in the region, the scientists said.

    Yet the findings suggest that could happen as more mercury is hovering at the surface. When converted to a toxic form, mercury can enter the food chain, threatening the food supplies of native Arctic peoples dependent on marine animals and wildlife.

    “There’s a lot of people who rely on hunting and fishing, and of course, the main exposure of humans and wildlife to mercury is through consumption of fish,” said Daniel Obrist, a research professor at the Desert Research Institute and co-author of the paper. “We know the Arctic is affected by mercury pollution.”
    ————–
    This isn’t the only source of mercury pollution. Recently it was revealed that the giant tar-sands operation in Canada is producing the same.

  16. Artleads Says:

    ” First, you don’t know with 100% certainty how long this will take to play out, so if it is longer than your life expectancy otherwise making a bad choice could shorten up your time left walking the earth.”

    Common sense.
    ———

    b9k9 addresses a complex problem with a simple, clear answer that is wrong. He is, at least, consistent.
    ———

    I doubt that a global predicament grounded in complexity can be answered through “efficiency,” “correctness,” “knowledge,” etc. If it could, we’d be in a different place than now.

    As one other contrarian drop in the bucket, I suggest making a place for “messiness,” “laziness,” “fuzziness,” etc. These have been undervalued traits, which, while they can’t stand alone without balancing characteristics, should have a respected place among them.
    ———-

    The same might be said for individuality. People get praised or vilified as though they were isolated and walled-off entities. But one way of viewing people might be that they are shades, colors, tones, chords in larger entities. I know we keep saying things like that, but I don’t think we really take it seriously. There is also never anything settled. As soon as you construct something–even a sentence–it starts unraveling. But if all is flux and fuzziness (at some important level) then where is the philosophy to deal with that? There are a million compelling voices, making a billion compelling points. They are always (of necessity) in error, more or less, and subject to rebuttal. And we can spend all our time arguing about them. I simply wonder whether there is utility (or a method) in taking emphasis off people and transferring it to some kind of overarching system that subsumes individuality?

    Before I came to NBL, I thought that could be as simple as gauging Earth’s temperature (a la Bill McKibben), but now I see how much more complex the issue is.

  17. Artleads Says:

    Tom,

    RE has said repeatedly that he has no expectations of success, and that he enjoys what he’s doing and presenting more than any alternative. The points he makes about the science don’t (it seems to me) mean that he has “hope.” I guess he’s only saying that he doesn’t see the science as air tight as you do.

    I’m interested in something different, and so leave the science to those who have strong credentials to pronounce about it (like you and RE), one way or another. In other words, I’m going along on the G. McPherson air current for now, since, reading between the lines, taking my cues from a kind of “body language” in his communication, he has a more compelling narrative than others I’m aware of… And NBL, whatever anybody says, has been rather inclusive about a wide range of opinions that are not based on “science.”

  18. Tom Says:

    Artleads: I saw a quote on seemorerocks that you might like (and probably know)

    ‘Sermon from the Mount’

    http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2014/02/sermon-from-mount.html

    Blessed are the weird people – poets, misfits, writers, mystics, painters, troubadours – for they teach us to see the world through different eyes.

    Jacob Nordby

    sorry for overstepping the post rule (I think i’m under the average of 2 per day since I don’t post every day, but that’s just an excuse).

  19. Henry Says:

    RE — thanks and yes I’ll go look when I’ve got fullscreen and not magnifying glass over this one.

    Seems my “game theory ” take covers much of discussion : We’re 70% certain NTE a la Guy McP even if we stopped IndCiv on a Tim Garrett dime. We won’t, so including the human inertia factor, it’s 95%.

    We can still have fun in the remainder, part of which is this discussion, even arguing a point or two either way, plus it’s a moving target (toward 100%) over time anyway. But there IS a probability number out there; we just don’t know what it is.

  20. Henry Says:

    Meanwhile, I’m doing what I love — suspect you are, too — and, except for a few sticky pounds (next week, I swear!) it seems to be working. Semi-retired, watch the budget (lifetime habit) procrastinate the rest (another habit) . Maybe 20 good years to go. 30?

    “…I could not stop for Death (Time), he kindly stopped for me. ” — Emily D.

  21. B9K9 Says:

    @Reverse Engineer says “2 Risks. First, you don’t know with 100% certainty how long this will take to play out …”

    Well, actually, we do. If you are an acolyte of the church of Hubbert, and follow disciples like Duncan (Olduvai), et al, then you know that global peak oil production occurred around 5 years ago.

    It’s a pretty trivial exercise to map rates of utilization/population growth against measured levels of decline. The resulting demand/production gap thus drives the need for QE and other financial shenanigans to fake the missing output, and accelerates humanity towards an economic singularity that can occur at any moment.

    “2nd, the folks eating canapes in the Hamptons and stuffing Ford Model noses full of Bolivian Flake are likely to end up strung up by their Gonads. Or they will get an Offer they Cannot Refuse, as apparently 3 Banksters got in the last week and bought their own tickets to the Great Beyond.”

    The state will exercise a full spectrum of preservation actions, justified and long supported by established law (their law, ‘natch, but internationally recognized), that will serve, first & foremost, to protect the ruling class. That a few low level flunkies got whacked doesn’t negate the fact that attempting to establish an alternative, and in their eyes, competitive threat, will just make you a target.

    As an aside, you might wish to avoid getting into needless debates about certain specific elements. The overall trend is clear, and as Hedges has so eloquently written, the PTB have been busy little beavers setting up the kind of infrastructure needed when the SHTF. This sucker is in fact “going down”, and it behooves those who have a clue to navigate wisely.

  22. Robin Datta Says:

    That methodology would not allow you to determine who was correct, only who was incorrect.

    Exactly!

    Grant Schreiber Says:
    February 2nd, 2014 at 6:24 am
    RE rants:

  23. Martin Says:

    Reverse Engineer said: […] most certainly none of the QUITTERS here will make it through […]

    B9K9 said: […] attempting to establish an alternative, and in their eyes, competitive threat, will just make you a target.

    The system is well defended against attacks from below. The system has no defence against abandonment. Making it through begins with quitting. The well-timed quit is a “force of (human) nature, a force not to be taken lightly,” says Evan Harris, author of The Quit.

    But, turning your lawn into a victory garden won’t save you. (But being called a quitter won’t move me.) Via Ran Prieur is this Reddit thread that sums up our present impasse rather well, I think.

  24. Apneaman Says:

    @RE
    “Whether the last humans number a million, a thousand, or zero, there’s a good chance these small, widely distributed farms will be among the final few. Thus, thinking through a plan to network with them to upgrade their survival tools might be an optimal adjunct to the SUN plan.”-H”

    Sounds like a Doomer version of “He who dies with the most toys wins”

  25. ulvfugl Says:

    From Thoreau to Rosa Parks, and from Ghandi to you – a successful strategy to protect your liberties requires non-compliance and peaceful resistance.

    And, as Rosa Parks proved, saying “NO!” can change the world.

    http://offnow.org/plan/

  26. Jeff S. Says:

    Regarding the Bolsheviks implementing Marx’s ideas in Russia: A big BS. And this has nothing to do what measly money Lenin and Trotsky might have received from some European capitalists, as the weight of European and American capitalism supported the attempted restoration of the Czarist regime (the White Army) not only with arms shipments but also direct military intervention, including US troops in Murmansk and Vladivostok. Lenin and Trotsky from the beginning had a conception of socialism which owed a lot more to Henry Ford’s assembly lines, Frederick Taylor’s “Scientific Management,” and the German imperial army than to Marx’s own analysis. In fact they were quite explicit in calling this STATE CAPITALISM. It fell to Stalin to claim that this system was “socialism,” mostly because he said so, and those who disagreed got long term vacations in labor resorts in Siberia.

    http://www.struggle.ws/anarchism/writers/anarcho/anticapPAM/antiorstate.html

    Also see the article by me which got posted here last May regarding resistance being the only ethical response to near-term extinction.

  27. ulvfugl Says:

    @ Artleads

    Well, who the fuck are you to tell B9K9 that he is wrong ?

    At least he knows about stuff, he designs his own camping gear and knows the birds and the trees and understands how The Machine works and has a coherent and clearly thought out position which he can state eloquently.

    By contrast, you don’t know anything about anything. Following on from the musician metaphor mentioned a few days back, YOU want your place centre stage, but you can’t play an instrument, and don’t know anything about music, but that doesn’t stop you, does it, because of your over-inflated sense of your own importance YOU have to be HEARD, and so we have to hear your fucking ‘messiness’ and ‘fuzziness’ even though it has no value and is a waste of everyone’s time, because you’re too fucking lazy to do any work and study and learn, and this is the internet, so nobody can stop YOU form endless bullshit, over and over again…

    Why the fuck SHOULD messiness and fuzziness and laziness have a respected place, Artleads ?

    When the world is already full of conmen and liars and charlatans and snakeoil salesmen and shitty scumbags of every variety, why the fuck should we accept YOUR worthless junk here ?

    You HAVE no principles or integrity. Every thread you’ll agree with whatever flavour you think you can get away with.

    When it seemed cool to be into religious fundmentalism, you were into cleaning out the toilets when nobody was looking and saying prayers for people. When people gave you a hard time about that, it all went and you were suddenly a big Marvin Harris fan.

    Now, today, it’s an RE day so I guess you give the maxed out, super-duper informed version of what I’m saying.

    The trouble is, Artleads, you’re never actually saying ANYTHING are you. You only PRETEND to be saying something by bullshitting and dropping in a few good-sounding words, like military-industrial complex or sea-level rise, to give a superficial appearance, a veneer, of being on topic.

    And all around the world, there are millions of Artleads, inflated with self-importance, determined to lead the way, thumping the table, insisting something must be done, who will fuck up everything and make the mess even worse than it is….

  28. Artleads Says:

    My darling uvfugi,

    You say you have no use for all my (fill in the blanks) posting, yet you respond to everything I say. Are you a liar, my love?

    You say I’m a “nice” person (and is this where I say, fuck you too?), and yet now I’m a liar, a destroyer of minds, whatever. You appear to be confused, my sweet. Get some help maybe?

  29. ulvfugl Says:

    @ Artleads

    I’m not your darling, or your love, or a liar. I value honesty and integrity and truth, and I have no respect at all for bullshit.

    No, I do not think you are a nice person. I think you are lacking in any virtue that I can discern.

    This blog concerns matters of ultimate gravity and sobriety and seriousness. We each of us come to terms with these matters in our own ways. I find your shallow superficial trivial approach, fabricated nonsense, is the least helpful of all, and the if you had any dignity or self-respect you would pause and ponder why you conduct yourself in such a fashion.

  30. Kirk Hamilton Says:

    Great video from Scripps Institute. But if you go to 2:40 you’ll get to actually observe methane hydrates’

    http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2014/01/california.html?spref=fb

  31. Kirk Hamilton Says:

    HAHA! I posted the wrong link! :) Duh! Maybe self-administered shock therapy will help, no? Yes? YES!!!

  32. RE Says:
    RE’s Daily Recap
    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #35 on: Today at 04:16:05 AM »
    Quote from: Tom

    Do your best to fight the downward trend, try hydroponics (how’s that work when the atmosphere becomes toxic and you can’t find any clean potable water to work with?)

    Solar distillation and water recycling should keep you going a bit longer.  Another CHALLENGE!  ;D

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #37 on: Today at 03:52:40 PM »
    Quote from: RD
    Quote from: RE

    That methodology would not allow you to determine who was correct, only who was incorrect.

    Exactly!

    No not exactly, because the contrapositive isn’t a logical conclusion.

    In any event, the Greek Barber’s methodology doesn’t work on the internet, since it is text driven and you can’t raise your voice.

    The way you tell who is wrong in internet commentariat is by who makes snarky comments first.

    You win.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #38 on: Today at 03:57:23 PM »
    Quote from: B9

    This sucker is in fact “going down”, and it behooves those who have a clue to navigate wisely.

    Wise navigation does not include trying to grasp “opportunity” and profit off the misery of others.  Nor does it include engineering yourself into a position as Prison Guard at a FEMA Death Camp.  JMHO.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #39 on: Today at 04:25:37 PM »
    Quote from: M

    But, turning your lawn into a victory garden won’t save you.

    I have no intention of turning my lawn into a victory garden.  Do you even read what I write?  Did you bother to listen to the interview with John Sharry that heads up the articles?  Did you read his article Hope in the Face of Disaster – Creating a sustainable, viable, future path for civilisation ?

    I was chatting with Monsta (my co-host on the Collapse Cafe) yesterday and he said “NBL is DEPRESSING“.  Which it is, and the members here seem to revel in the grief and pity party.  If anybody shows up with any kind of positive ideas or viewpoint the NBL Batters come out of the Dugout with their Louisville Sluggers and pound the Peppy Upbeat Contrarian  with the “Don’t you GET IT?  We’re all DEAD in 40 years no matter WHAT!  Everything you are doing is  a HOPELESS waste of time!”

    Why does anyone live this way?  How do you get out of bed in the morning?  Why bother doing anything at all, why go to work if you still have a job?

    This is all about an attitude of self-pity and helplessness embedded into the mindset here.  I’m going to have to talk with John Sharry about this more in our next Podcast.  It doesn’t MATTER whether you succeed or not in making the effort to build a better way of living, it is the effort that counts and living your life by good principles.  So even if we all go extinct, its STILL the right thing to do on the way to the Great Beyond.

    Besides that, I simply don’t buy that extinction is a lock in such short order.  Massive population knockdown yes, extinction no.  Then besides that you have the period between now and then where things will become increasingly more difficult, what is the best way to negotiate that period?  You gonna wait it out in an Chicago apartment?  Get on the Amtrak Train for relocation to a FEMA Camp in Utah?  You won’t be heading for Utah.  Your destination will be the Human Waste Reprocessing Facility in San Antonio.

    Our strategies are to try and avoid these outcomes as best as possible.  It can’t be done alone, the solo Doomsteader is in fact DOOMED.  You have to work together and form communities, Tribes if you will.

    Anyhow, if holding a Pity Party here on NBL until the Internet Goes Dark is what floats your boat, feel free to bemoan the sorry state of the world and humanity as a species.  My preference is to try and live whatever time is left in the best way possible, and help as many people as I can along the way.

    See You on the Other Side.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #43 on: Today at 07:42:59 PM »

    It’s all been discussed a hundred times over already on NBL.

    Chump Change.  We’ve been over the ground 1000 times on the Diner.  We swamp you guys in word count.  We just came to different conclusions than you did.  The RIGHT conclusions.  LOL.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #46 on: Today at 09:23:26 PM »

    ahahahahaha. This is SUCH a nerdy/MIT/autistic answer!

    UF started it by throwing out his numbers.  I just topped him.  8)  Don’t pitch out numbers in the NFL if you play Pee Wee Football.  ;D  Lightweights of Collapse over here.  LOL.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #48 on: Today at 09:30:22 PM »

    But my impression of you guys is that your picture of our predicament and the future is wildly inaccurate. So that’s why you come to the conclusions that you come up with.

    This is my impression of you guys as well.  Anyhow, with luck and good planning we’ll both be around in 2050 and I will be able to say I told you so. Unfortunately for you, if you turn out to be right you won’t be able to say I told you so until we cross paths in the Great Beyond.

    See You on the Other Side

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #50 on: Today at 10:36:47 PM »

    I’m not AGAINST your unquenchable spirit of wanting to survive, am I. I’m against totally unrealistic and fantasy portrayals of the situation.

    I don’t think we are unrealistic or in Fantasy Land either.  Why do you think we are meeting down in TX at Monolithic Domes to learn how to put up Ferrocement  Domes that can withstand an F5 Tornado and take a few hits from RPGs too?  Why do you think we are building semi-underground Greenhouses with passive ventilation and cooling systems?  Why do you think we are pursuing self-contained hydroponic systems with water distillation and recycling?

    Nobody involved in SUN thinks this will be a Cakewalk, and maintaining control over your patch of the earth and your systems is no easy task either, certainly one which cannot be accomplished without significant NUMBERS.  Best to be the Biggest Gang in a Small Neighborhood.

    No set of plans can cover all the variables of course, and there is a lot of luck involved too in terms of location, so the more Cells you set up in different locations, the more resilient the overall system is.

    If the climate change does not top out with the PETM range and goes further than this, then probably nothing and nobody will make it through to the Other Side.  So the gamble here is that this is a Thermal Maxima that won’t be crossed without negative feedback loops starting to kick in, as they did at the end of the original PETM.  As gambles go though, you have nothing to lose.  In the case the PETM is breached you end up dead no matter what.  However, you can’t survive a thermal maxima like this without some good systems to handle it.  The systems also have to be buildable from primitive technology, augmented by Scavenging materials from the Age of Oil.

    None of these plans are Unrealistic, and none of them are predicated on the idea survivng this kind of catastrophe will be an easy thing to do.  However, if there is even only a .01% chance it can work, it is worth trying.  Anything less is Quitting.

    RE

  33. Robin Datta Says:

    Everything you are doing is a HOPELESS waste of time!

    It is a waste of time not because it is done, but because it is done with hope. The invincibility of true hopelessness is not in the despair of thwarted expectation, but in the absence of expectation: actions performed in accordance with rational anticipation of, but without expectation for, the results.

    It doesn’t MATTER whether you succeed or not in making the effort to build a better way of living, it is the effort that counts and living your life by good principles.

    When the effort is motivated by the expectation of success, rather than just by the rational anticipation of outcomes, then it is the outcome that counts, and not the effort.

    So even if we all go extinct, its STILL the right thing to do on the way to the Great Beyond.

    Without a shadow of a doubt. But right only so long as without an expectation for results, while remaining consonant with rational anticipations.

    Our strategies are to try and avoid these outcomes as best as possible.

    An expectation of avoiding certain outcomes is tied to whatever alternate outcomes one expects. The same action motivated by rational anticipations is right regardless of the results.

  34. Apneaman Says:

    Quitting would be “un-american”. Do you have any idea how much of what you say sounds like it’s right out of a cheesy Hollywood, never say die underdog movie?

    YO,,,,,,,,ADRIAN!

  35. William Hunter Duncan Says:

    Apneaman Says:
    February 3rd, 2014 at 11:54 am

    @RE
    “Whether the last humans number a million, a thousand, or zero, there’s a good chance these small, widely distributed farms will be among the final few. Thus, thinking through a plan to network with them to upgrade their survival tools might be an optimal adjunct to the SUN plan.”-H”

    Sounds like a Doomer version of “He who dies with the most toys wins”

    Greenhouses, hydroponics, fermentables, fungi propagation, various low-mid tech gizmos, well elaborated kitchens and workshops, etc.

    Anyone who wants in should follow RE’s links to the SUN site and read the prospectus.

    WHD

  36. William Hunter Duncan Says:

    “””This blog concerns matters of ultimate gravity and sobriety and seriousness.”””

    ulvfugl,

    Far as I can tell, this blog could use a little less gravity, sobriety and seriousness. More cheer, joy and wonder ;)

    WHD

  37. Henry Says:

    A–man — Nope. Just the chance to live out my life, doing what I love,rather than joining in the mass starvation. Humanity never invited me to its party, so why should I feel obligated to join in now? “Different Drummer, ” and all that…

  38. Martin Says:

    @ RE

    I have no intention of turning my lawn into a victory garden. Do you even read what I write? Did you bother to listen to the interview with John Sharry that heads up the articles? Did you read his article Hope in the Face of Disaster – Creating a sustainable, viable, future path for civilisation ?

    Fair enough. I didn’t listen to the interview and I didn’t read the article. Your point about the NBL commentariat’s pessimism is largely true so I risk tedium by pointing out that the line about victory gardens should have formed part of the link to the Reddit thread, because it is part of the title of the thread. You are correct: it is not an adequate rejoinder to your post, but I didn’t mean it to be.

  39. Surly1 Says:

    Martin Says:
    February 3rd, 2014 at 11:21 am
    Reverse Engineer said: […] most certainly none of the QUITTERS here will make it through […]

    B9K9 said: […] attempting to establish an alternative, and in their eyes, competitive threat, will just make you a target.

    The system is well defended against attacks from below. The system has no defence against abandonment. Making it through begins with quitting. The well-timed quit is a “force of (human) nature, a force not to be taken lightly,” says Evan Harris, author of The Quit.

    But, turning your lawn into a victory garden won’t save you. (But being called a quitter won’t move me.) Via Ran Prieur is this Reddit thread that sums up our present impasse rather well, I think.

    Thanks to Martin for the reedit link. Well worth reading.

    Part of a successful strategy is to “hide in plain sight” while quitting. Render unto Caesar, pay your taxes, smile and be a good neighbor, all while developing sustainable systems that will enable people to “quit” successfully.

    Of course, the system doesn’t want you to leave, and can find a colorful variety of pretexts under which they can make trouble, such as:

    http://www.hangthebankers.com/swat-team-raids-sustainable-community/

    As Jay Gould famously said, “You can always hire half the working class to kill the other half.” As true now as then.

    Would agree that considerations of doom and other matters of “ultimate gravity sobriety and seriousness” could benefit from a better sense of humor.

    Find out what RE and others are talking about:

    http://sun4living.com

  40. Tom Says:

    http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2014/02/accepting-reality.html

    Tuesday, 4 February 2014

    Accepting reality

    Americans’ Mental Health is Latest Victim of Changing Climate (Op-Ed)

    The emotional toll of global warming is expected to become a national — and potentially global — crisis that many mental health experts warn could prove far more serious than its physical and environmental effects.

    “When you have an environmental insult, the burden of mental health disease is far greater than the physical,” said Steven Shapiro, a Baltimore psychologist who directs the program on climate change, sustainability and psychology for the nonprofit Psychologists for Social Responsibility (PsySR). “It has a much larger effect on the psyche. Survivors can have all sorts of issues: post traumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, relationship issues, and academic issues among kids.”

    A report released in 2012 by the National Wildlife Federation’s Climate Education Program and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation predicted a steep rise in mental and social disorders resulting from climate change-related events in the coming years, including depression and anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, substance abuse, suicide and widespread outbreaks of violence. Moreover, it estimated that about 200 million Americans will be exposed to serious psychological distress from climate-related events in the coming years, and that the nation’s counselors, trauma specialists and first responders currently are ill-equipped to cope.

    “The physical toll has been studied, but the psychological impacts of climate change have not been addressed,” said Lise Van Susteren, a forensic psychiatrist and one of the report’s authors. “We must not forget that people who are physically affected by climate change will also be suffering from the emotional fallout of what has happened to them. Others suffer emotionally from a distance, especially those who are most keenly aware of the perils we face, or as in the case of children, those who feel especially vulnerable. And the psychological damage is not only over what is happening now, but what is likely going to happen in the future.

    “This kind of anticipatory anxiety is especially crippling and is increasingly being seen among climate activists — in some cases rising to the level of a kind of ‘pre-traumatic’ stress disorder,” she added.

    Moreover, society can expect to experience a collective sense of sadness, anger and defeat as it confronts the inevitable, and possibly irreversible, long-term environmental effects of global warming, and the failure to prevent them, according to Van Susteren.

    “We are undoing millions of years of evolution, and the situation is a catastrophe,” she said. “Climate activists on the front lines are desperate to convey this to the public, but are told to be wary of paralyzing people with fear. Compounding the issue is that people often generally are not ‘good’ at knowing they are anxious, or, if they do, often don’t know why.

    “Because of the magnitude of the problem, and the fact that our leaders are not responding commensurate with the threat, feelings of vulnerability are repressed and cause unseen psychological damage,” she added. [there's more]

  41. ulvfugl Says:

    My gripe was not about humour, wonder, or joy, it was about bullshit.

    Digging up your lawn for victory IS a revolutionary act and will no doubt be seen AS SUCH, homegrown carrots and swedes ARE the new Molotov Cocktails, as Martin, being as subversive as a sleeping honeybadger in a tulip grove, knows only too well… Demand the Crash.

    Holmgren on his essay ‘Crash on Demand’

    http://www.mixcloud.com/21stCenturyPermaculture/2nd-feb-2014/

  42. Henry Says:

    Maybe Guy should see if there’s an app for book-signing a Kindle (in person, of course), but no matter, I’ve got both. I want him on my special collection shelf next to Scott Nearing. Hell, maybe he’ll still be signing books, too, when he’s 90 years old.

  43. Eddie Says:

    “turning your lawn into a victory garden won’t save you.”

    But it might feed you for a while, at a time when you would otherwise starve. It might feed someone you love.

    By concentrating on the Big Casino of climate change so much here, many commenters here lose sight of the fact that 2030 is 15 years away, and that it might be a very chaotic and desperate fifteen years.

    Fifteen years puts me past the three score and ten…so if between now and then I choose to build sustainable systems that just might possibly benefit some younger people, it hurts nothing, and it helps me become a fully sapient human.

    I fully understand that our chances aren’t the least bit good. But it remains to be seen if we can use our big brains to adapt to a rapidly changing, declining biome. None of the armchair experts here knows with absolute certainty what the future holds, or precisely how the collapse will unfold.

    I think of it as an interesting technological experiment, if nothing else. Is it tilting at windmills? Sure it is.

    We have all this knowledge now about sustainability and permaculture. We understand how to use thermal mass. We understand how to build systems of agriculture that work.

    For me to sit in my easy chair and wait for the end, saving a bullet for myself and a few for my family…this is unconscionable, given the slightest alternative.

    Those who would do nothing because they think there is nothing left to do are missing the picture, imho. 100% of all of us will be pushing up daisies in a few years (Yes, I know daisies will be extinct, it’s just an expression.) It’s how you live, and how you die, that makes you more than a random bag of air-breathing protoplasm.

  44. Bob S. Says:

    Surly1 says: “Find out what RE and others are talking about…”

    Sustainable communities pre-date my 63 years. What RE and others are talking about is “their” community – done “their” way – but as I’ve said before – everybody can’t be king. SUN is nothing new – just old puked up stuff from forever, scraped up by RE who now is running around shouting Eureka like 10,000 others. That is why SUN was stillborn.

  45. Artleads Says:

    @ Tom

    Yes. What’s going on in the average person’s brain is of the utmost importance. We ignore or dismiss this at our cost. Thanks as always.

    @ Eddie

    Thanks. Your post is like a breath of fresh air.
    ———-

  46. pat Says:

    Wrong. Nothing we do changes the fact that we are nothing more than random bags of air-breathing protoplasm. Pushing up daisies eventually becomes having our molecules widely scattered in the cold dark expanse of space as our sun burns out, the galaxy gets sucked into its own black hole, and the universe expands to nothingness.

    Having a higher functioning brain, walking upright, and thumbs that oppose changes nothing.

    If evolution has “survival of the fittest” as its highest standard, then how do we account for our evolution into a race of suicidal maniacs, no better than bacteria in a petri dish? How do we account for the Earth as a complete system where one species exploits its environment so “successfully” as to lay waste to its own surroundings as well as kill Every Living Thing On Earth?

    Give me a break. There is no sense in our being. There is no virtue. There is no vice. It’s all make-believe. Therefore, there can be no love, no hate, no obligation, no resentment.

    Intelligence led us to civilization. And, civilization killed us. Therefore, intelligence killed us.

    Blow up a power station because you like to hear loud noises and to see flames. Be kind to a child because you like to feel warm and fuzzy inside. Rob a bank because you like the thrill and the money.

    Sigh.

    Just sitting on this runaway train, staring out the window.

    The Voluntary Extinction Movement
    Thou shalt not procreate.

    The Church of Euthanasia
    Save the planet, kill yourself.

  47. William Hunter Duncan Says:

    Bob S. Says:
    February 4th, 2014 at 8:08 am

    Surly1 says: “Find out what RE and others are talking about…”

    Sustainable communities pre-date my 63 years. What RE and others are talking about is “their” community – done “their” way – but as I’ve said before – everybody can’t be king. SUN is nothing new – just old puked up stuff from forever, scraped up by RE who now is running around shouting Eureka like 10,000 others. That is why SUN was stillborn.”””

    Bob S,

    Puked up stuff? Actually, I wrote the SUN prospectus, with my friend Roamer. RE is king like you know what you are talking about. You should maybe puke up less vitriol about what you do not know, curmudgeon.

    http://www.sun4living.com

    WHD

  48. William Hunter Duncan Says:

    pat Says:
    February 4th, 2014 at 8:39 am

    Wrong. Nothing we do changes the fact that we are nothing more than random bags of air-breathing protoplasm.”””

    pat,

    Everything you just said is at the CORE of what is driving humanity to a zero point, the earth to mass extinction: nothing matters, all is matter, anything goes. There is nothing that could not be added to your list of what can be justified, no matter how vile, no matter how harmful. Best of luck with that, on your travels :)

    WHD

  49. Eddie Says:

    “Wrong. Nothing we do changes the fact that we are nothing more than random bags of air-breathing protoplasm. Pushing up daisies eventually becomes having our molecules widely scattered in the cold dark expanse of space as our sun burns out, the galaxy gets sucked into its own black hole, and the universe expands to nothingness.”

    So easy just to call out “Wrong!” So often that’s the hallmark of the True Believer.(Or in this case, the True Non-believer, as it were.)

    Personally, I’m looking forward to my molecules expanding into the infinite reaches of space. Actually,I’ve always envisioned that it will be not just my molecules, but my consciousness expanding to fill the universe. Sort of like exploding fireworks.

    When it comes down to it, each of us is free to decide what we believe about these issues, and I don’t consider that what you’re saying is “wrong”, any more than what I said was “right”. But what a way to live, with that kind of outlook! I can’t help but think it must make life almost unbearable.

    No sense in trying to get past your grief and anger. It appears that’s all you have left to hold on to. I know you care about something or someone on some level, or you wouldn’t bother to come here to write your words on the wall.

    Love never dies, you know. Life is worth living. Don’t make me start quoting Mattie Stepanek.

  50. B9K9 Says:

    @Eddie says in response to ‘turning your lawn into a victory garden won’t save you.’ “But it might feed you for a while, at a time when you would otherwise starve. It might feed someone you love.”

    No it won’t. I’ve mentioned this before, but I’ll say it again: we have one of the most extensive home gardens in our neck of suburbia. We have an oversized lot (for a beach community), so it’s all tucked away in the back. So, from the street view, it looks like any other normal lawn & shrub house.

    I installed raised beds, compost area, a drip system, small pathways, etc over 10 years ago. We grow all kinds of vegetables, and have four, count ‘em, four mature, super productive citrus tress (orange, lime, lemon & grapefruit).

    (The orange tree is actually kind of famous – we get so much fruit, we periodically let our neighbors come by some times and pick their own. One had a Filipino aunt who was visiting, and took some home were they all marveled over it’s almost sickly sweet fruit. I know, nice problem to have.)

    Over the years, I have propagated a few different strains of tomato plants, and am currently excited about a mutant cheery that mixed with another heirloom variety to produce clusters of medium sized fruit. A few are flowering already (thank the drought), so we’ll see what we get.

    Anyway, the reason for this long exposition is this: all this shit only works because I dump boatloads of fertilizer (good ‘ole triple-16) every time I rotate & condition the soil. Oh sure, we mix in all the compost (we actually have quite a bit), but it’s just to amend the soil. The real action comes from the chemicals.

    In years past, I’d sometimes lapse and put down less, and you know what the results were? You got it, we didn’t get shit.

    Now, with all this being said (oh, did I mention we have 3 chickens and a rabbit?), could we actually depend on feeding our family from these efforts? Are you fucking kidding me? This is a classic hobby farm – we produce enough food over a year to last maybe, maybe 7 days. And that would be a stretch.

    The point is that we are so far into overshoot, so utterly dependent on fossil fuels, that it takes a moment to really understand that there ain’t no coming back from this.

    So, live it up and enjoy each day. Hide in plain site. And when everyone is forced to make Sophie’s choice, they will understand why sacrifices are made for children.

  51. ogardener Says:

    February 04, 2014

    The Health Care Doctors Forgot

    Why Ordinary Food Will be the Future of Medicine

    Works for me.

  52. Martin Says:

    @Eddie
    When it comes down to it, each of us is free to decide what we believe about these issues

    Do you really call them “issues”? Like a social worker or a substance-abuse counsellor or a paid talking head would?

    The sixth great extinction event is not an “issue.” Striking a pose about how Pat must “care about something or someone on some level” — on some level? — does not pass muster as insight into the human condition.

    You are being absurd. “free to decide what we believe” is mealy-mouthed. Fake. Feigning tolerance while washing your hands.

  53. Surly1 Says:

    Martin says,”Do you really call them “issues”? Like a social worker or a substance-abuse counsellor or a paid talking head would?

    The sixth great extinction event is not an “issue.” Striking a pose about how Pat must “care about something or someone on some level” — on some level? — does not pass muster as insight into the human condition.

    You are being absurd. “free to decide what we believe” is mealy-mouthed. Fake. Feigning tolerance while washing your hands.”

    Well. Here I thought what Eddie offered was clear minded in the extreme, and practical, and worthwhile. Clearly, your mileage varies.

    If the posters on NBL want so much to embrace Voluntary Euthanasia, then who can stop you? As for me, and a few others, I do not care to go gently into that good night, leaning up against a tree waiting to bleed ourt like a gut-shot Confederate soldier… Our greed, shortsightedness and solipsism may have killed us, but perhaps there is a way for some of our children to make it through the zero point. If that is not reason enough to make the effort, I am not sure what is.

    And to those like Bob S. and others who have heard it all before, and who are eager to criticize and heap oppobrium, remember that a new generation of people who most definitely NOT have heard it all before is being born every day.

    Comes down to try or die, friends. And even though I’m an old man with one working knee, I intend to try.

    And with that, I’ve used up my two posts.

  54. Eddie Says:

    @Martin

    (I love how we now speak @ people instead of talking TO people. But that’s the internet)

    I apologize for going over two, but I seldom post here at all, for reasons which are probably obvious to just about anyone who’s read the thread.

    Martin, the issues I was talking about were whether or not I believe my molecules and consciousness will expand to fill the universe when I pass out of this life. Nothing to do with NTHE.

    Not sure whether your misunderstanding was due to your poor reading skills or just deliberate meanness on your part. I don’t really care. But I don’t like being called a fake. You don’t know me. If you did, you’d know better than that.

  55. Martin Says:

    Deliberate meanness on my part? Are you thick? If you don’t want to be called fake, then don’t be a fake. I saw what you did. Heaping scorn on Pat because he doesn’t want to suck Ray Kurzweil’s cock, dismissive, can’t wait to hurl him into outer darkness because he dares to say he’s had enough, hanging around just long enough to say, heartlessly, shit, it must be really tough being you, oh, but you’re being such a sweetie pie. Yeah, right. I must have missed that part. You know the other side you want to get to? You’re taking YOU with you. Good luck with that.

  56. monsta666 Says:

    I have said it numerous times in the past but I will say it again: we live in a world of complex systems and if there is one thing about complex systems it is that they are inherently unpredictable. Therefore if anyone makes a prediction with certainty they must either be ignorant or have an agenda of some sort.

    What we can merely say is there is a strong possibility of a near-term extinction event but since the event is not certain to happen there is merit in pursuing plans that mitigate against a collapse. As RE and other posters have already mentioned there is no harm in preparing for such a future as the worst that could happen is the plan fails. But if you succeed then that is great. It is really a bet with nothing to lose and as I heard in some places it is a Scottish bet i.e. you only get to claim the winnings and not take any losses in this kind of bet.

    So why the resistance to trying to survive the collapse? I don’t get it…

  57. logspirit Says:

    I’ve previously informed the community that the period of dire need which I suffered through has been ameliorated, and although I’m still living in my old van at the moment, my more positive circumstance continues, and continues to improve. Several people donated very generously, and I want to thank all of them again for enabling my survival. I also found some basic employment which enabled me to lift myself over the hump, out of the slump.

    But there is a bit more to the story that may be of interest, highlighting the respect and honor that Dr. McPherson deserves… revealing what an important nexus NBL has become, bringing people together for otherwise unlikely action. As many of you know, Frank Friedrich Kling has been involved in philanthropic ecological efforts with global scope, including several exciting projects in the rainforests of South America. Quietly, behind the scenes, he has graciously offered me an invitation to begin working with him.

    Although the tasks are daunting, they have provided me with new purpose, new reasons to go on living and seeking new vistas. It has opened up an optimistic gap in my dreary sky. To go on trying, despite the apparent futility of our era. As I have said before on these pages, ‘Might as well try’. That is the way of Aikido, the path of training that I chose all those years ago. The founder of Aikido, Morihei Ueshiba, once famously said: “Do not look upon this world with fear and loathing. Bravely face whatever the gods offer.” Yes, yes, ordinary fools like us got us into this mess, not the ‘gods’… but I think the point is clear. To a spiritual person like Morihei, it, life, every aspect of it, was numinous. And, as Guy has said: “Resistance is fertile.

    One of the projects is focusing on reintroducing, back to the wild, a unique population of ‘test monkeys’ that were used in psychology laboratories at a university. This particular species was always beautiful and rare, now they are teetering on the verge of extinction. This group of primates was never exposed to unusual physiological vectors such as viruses, etc. and may hold the key to their species survival — given preservation of a habitat they can survive in, which ultimately will entail humanity accomplishing something that seems inconceivable today… reversing catastrophic climate change and stuffing the nuclear genie back into its bottle. Our eyes are wide open, we are informed about the hard facts, yet trudge on valiantly. Supreme effort is the only mechanism that might give these captives, and us, a jailbreak out of this conundrum. Might as well try.

    Consider awakening to a thrilling mission as an alternative to stumbling into the grave while sleep walking. To live each day to the max. There are still a few opportunities for some hardy souls – if you’d like to get involved, or contribute, make contact. You’re the hero you’ve been waiting for. The monkeys have been waiting too.

    ~~~

    @ ogardener
    Thanks for posting that link to Dr. Campbell’s article. Intelligent people need to read more stuff like that, and this is one of their watering holes. Well… minus all the aggressive bickering and ad hominem attacks that have obviously put off a lot of really good people… which I think Dr. Campbell’s recommendations would go a long way towards quelling. Health in body, health in mind. Of course, maintaining equanimity in the hard wind of collapse isn’t easy for anyone. The skills of the gardener are ever more apt. The doctor may enlighten us and that’s important, but the gardener gives us the real goods for vitality and life. For everyone else, to demystify this… please check out ogardener’s link.

    Personally, I think that gardeners should be paid at least as much as doctors, if not more… but of course, in full disclosure… I own a share of that stock.

  58. RE Says:
    REs Daily Recap #3
    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #43 on: February 03, 2014, 07:42:59 PM »

    It’s all been discussed a hundred times over already on NBL.

    Chump Change.  We’ve been over the ground 1000 times on the Diner.  We swamp you guys in word count.  We just came to different conclusions than you did.  The RIGHT conclusions.  LOL.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #46 on: February 03, 2014, 09:23:26 PM »

    ahahahahaha. This is SUCH a nerdy/MIT/autistic answer!

    UF started it by throwing out his numbers.  I just topped him.  8)  Don’t pitch out numbers in the NFL if you play Pee Wee Football.  ;D  Lightweights of Collapse over here.  LOL.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #48 on: February 03, 2014, 09:30:22 PM »

    But my impression of you guys is that your picture of our predicament and the future is wildly inaccurate. So that’s why you come to the conclusions that you come up with.

    This is my impression of you guys as well.  Anyhow, with luck and good planning we’ll both be around in 2050 and I will be able to say I told you so. Unfortunately for you, if you turn out to be right you won’t be able to say I told you so until we cross paths in the Great Beyond.

    See You on the Other Side

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #50 on: February 03, 2014, 10:36:47 PM »

    I’m not AGAINST your unquenchable spirit of wanting to survive, am I. I’m against totally unrealistic and fantasy portrayals of the situation.

    I don’t think we are unrealistic or in Fantasy Land either.  Why do you think we are meeting down in TX at Monolithic Domes to learn how to put up Ferrocement  Domes that can withstand an F5 Tornado and take a few hits from RPGs too?  Why do you think we are building semi-underground Greenhouses with passive ventilation and cooling systems?  Why do you think we are pursuing self-contained hydroponic systems with water distillation and recycling?

    Nobody involved in SUN thinks this will be a Cakewalk, and maintaining control over your patch of the earth and your systems is no easy task either, certainly one which cannot be accomplished without significant NUMBERS.  Best to be the Biggest Gang in a Small Neighborhood.

    No set of plans can cover all the variables of course, and there is a lot of luck involved too in terms of location, so the more Cells you set up in different locations, the more resilient the overall system is.

    If the climate change does not top out with the PETM range and goes further than this, then probably nothing and nobody will make it through to the Other Side.  So the gamble here is that this is a Thermal Maxima that won’t be crossed without negative feedback loops starting to kick in, as they did at the end of the original PETM.  As gambles go though, you have nothing to lose.  In the case the PETM is breached you end up dead no matter what.  However, you can’t survive a thermal maxima like this without some good systems to handle it.  The systems also have to be buildable from primitive technology, augmented by Scavenging materials from the Age of Oil.

    None of these plans are Unrealistic, and none of them are predicated on the idea survivng this kind of catastrophe will be an easy thing to do.  However, if there is even only a .01% chance it can work, it is worth trying.  Anything less is Quitting.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #51 on: Today at 12:50:17 AM »
    Quote from: RD

    It is a waste of time not because it is done, but because it is done with hope.

      ::)

    This is so absurd a statement it boggles the mind.  Every day you get up out of bed, you HOPE you will make it through to the end of the day still alive.  Unless you are suicidal, in which case why bother getting up in the first place?

    Extrapolate this out, you HOPE to last not through just tomorrow, but through the week, the month, the year, the decade, long as you want to stay alive you do anyhow.

    Will you RUN OUT of Hope at some point and DIE?  Most certainly, everyone does.  You haven’t run out of Hope, if you had you would be dead.  Or do you not HOPE you will live through tomorrow?  Will you not do everything possible to try to live through the day tomorrow?

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #52 on: Today at 01:02:43 AM »
    Quote from: AM

    Do you have any idea how much of what you say sounds like it’s right out of a cheesy Hollywood, never say die underdog movie?

    ABSOLUTELY!  I LOVE CHEESY HOLLYWOOD MOVIES where the Underdog TRIUMPHS!  :D

    However, I prefer REAL stories like Cinderella Man to the Rocky films.

    RE
    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #53 on: Today at 03:04:06 AM »

    Are you expecting that 100 monkeys typing away at keyboards are going to come up with Shakespeare, or what!?

    BTW, are you insinuating the Diners are Monkeys?  We aren’t as smart as you are?

    We got more than our share of Ph.Ds, DDS., MA, MS., JDs, BAs and BSs floating around the Diner.  You wanna pitch IQ points, we can do that too.  We aren’t Ivory Tower types, even though some of us like yours truly did the walk through Academia.  We are practical people who brook no shit and who solve problems.  Who solved NBLs Web Problems?

    You wanna match wits with me?  Feel free, be my guest.  I will take whatever information you care to drop on here and dissect it.  I am no monkey, and insinuating that I am is pure Napalm.  If there is a Monkey here, it is you, not me. You parrot shit coming from utterly unreliable sources I can carve up like Thanksgiving Turkey.  Take me on.  I got no worries here.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #54 on: Today at 03:57:41 AM »
    Quote from: AM

    Do you have any idea how much of what you say sounds like it’s right out of a cheesy Hollywood, never say die underdog movie?

    ABSOLUTELY!  I LOVE CHEESY HOLLYWOOD MOVIES where the Underdog TRIUMPHS!  :D

    However, I prefer REAL stories like Cinderella Man to the Rocky films.

    Also, I really like good mythology representative of real heroism, which always exists in reality.  It only comes in the toughest of times, toughest of circumstances, but come it does. ALWAYS.  It is part of the Human Spirit.  From the OP, Jimmy Dean (the Sausage King) singing Big Bad John  :)

    RE
    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #56 on: Today at 04:39:59 AM »

    Yeah, RE, that’s the problem. Living in a fantasy land of crap Hollywood movies and myths that has nothing to do with the real planet.

    Au contraire.  Mythology has everything to do with the real world, from Homer and the Illiad, from the Myth of Jesus right up through Fear & Loathing in Las Vegas.  The PROBLEM is most people do not grasp the real meaning of Myth, they are too misanthropic for it.  They seek to isolate themselves from others of their species and hide away from creating community.  This is a real problem.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #58 on: Today at 05:25:19 AM »

    Oh, I grant there’s a very significant relationship between human behaviour and myth, and that has to be understood, – or another angle on it would be human culture, through the lens of anthropology – but I’m talking about the real planet as a material entity, as a biological and physical system.

    That entity exists quite independently of any human myth.

    I don’t think the earth exists independent of human myth, since the earth spawned humanity to begin with.  We are part of the system.  We affect it, and it affects us.  How we behave is encapsulated in myth, and understanding this is important to developing a more consistent and positive relationship with the environment we inhabit.

    There are of course though Good Myths and Bad Myths.  To me, an example of a Good Myth is the Big Bad John one, a quiet big man who sacrificed himself to save others.  An example of a Bad Myth is Ayn Rand’s John Gault, who selfishly sacrifices others to the altar of his own success.

    As an individual, you have the opportunity to choose between the extant Mythologies out there, you can try to serve yourself best as a Nazi Prison Camp guard in B9s chosen mythology, or you can try to serve others best in a Ghandi style mythology.

    You can be a HERO, or you can be a CRIMINAL.  You can serve the forces of EVIL, or you can be an emmissary of GOOD.  Everyone has these choices of Mythology to make in how they operate inside the real world.

    I personally LIKE the pop culture metaphors that are GOOD.  I can make distinctions between good and bad metaphors.  Here’s a GOOD one for you.

    Be Larger than Life.  Be a HERO.  You can do it.  Never quit, Never say Die.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #62 on: Today at 01:31:40 PM »
    Quote from: BS

    Sustainable communities pre-date my 63 years. What RE and others are talking about is “their” community – done “their” way – but as I’ve said before – everybody can’t be king. SUN is nothing new – just old puked up stuff from forever, scraped up by RE who now is running around shouting Eureka like 10,000 others. That is why SUN was stillborn.

    King?  I don’t think so.  More like Cat Herder.

    Everybody has their own ideas on SUN.  I’m just the most prolific writer, though at least 3 others Blog regularly.

    As to there being nothing new under the SUN, yes and no.  Nobody else has education software of the type we are putting together.  Also, I don’t think anyone has put together a group like this before on the Internet.  When they put together The Farm, it was done through meetings in and around San Francisco.  One of our affiliates will be heading to TN to discuss linking up with Albert Bates in April, and I will meet with Albert in May at the Age of Limits Conference.  We’ve got an affiliate from as far out as Tasmania, and of course I chat with the folks from FEASTA in Ireland regularly.  Pretty decent Network already considering I just got the website up in November.

    I don’t think this qualifies as a Stillbirth. It’s building as time goes by.  Rome wasn’t built in a Day.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #63 on: Today at 04:20:15 PM »
    Quote from: Martin

    @Eddie
    When it comes down to it, each of us is free to decide what we believe about these issues

    Do you really call them “issues”? Like a social worker or a substance-abuse counsellor or a paid talking head would?

    The sixth great extinction event is not an “issue.” Striking a pose about how Pat must “care about something or someone on some level” — on some level? — does not pass muster as insight into the human condition.

    Seems like an ISSUE to me.  A big issue to be sure, but still an issue.  Said language isn’t Politically Correct on NBL?  You have some other terminology that is preferred here?

    Issue synonyms:   matter, matter in question, question, point, point at issue, affair, case, subject, topic, problem, bone of contention

    Seems to me Eddie just expressed an opinion on this bit of nihilism from Pat’s keyboard:

    Quote

    “Wrong. Nothing we do changes the fact that we are nothing more than random bags of air-breathing protoplasm. Pushing up daisies eventually becomes having our molecules widely scattered in the cold dark expanse of space as our sun burns out, the galaxy gets sucked into its own black hole, and the universe expands to nothingness.”

    Based on this statement, Eddie’s assumption that Pat must care about something may not be accurate, but he can speculate on it.  Though apparently not without Napalm flying off your keyboard.  This from the guy who makes critiques without listening to the arguments or reading through the reference material.  This is supposed to pass for intelligent conversation on NBL?  ::)

    Paint it Black dudes. :P

    RE
    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #64 on: Today at 04:26:01 PM »
    Quote from: RD
    Quote from: Eddie

    but my consciousness expanding to fill the universe.

    There is no “my” consciousness. To the extent that one exists, consciousness is one’s very existence: “me” consciousness, the sine qua non consciousness. It has no definable limits: no outside to expand into, no inside containing anything. All else, from molecules to mind is “mine”; what is “mine” is not “me”.

     ::)

    Keep this up and I will invite Ka and Ashvin to join the philosophical navel gazing contest here.  Then you’ll REALLY wish you were Extinct already. LOL.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #65 on: Today at 04:42:15 PM »

    I don’t think the earth exists independent of human myth,

    So there was no Earth before humans ????

    Before no longer exists.  That is why it is called before and not now.

    Quote

    So I think it’s not easy to say what’s a good or a bad myth. Depends where and when you happen to be standing and looking.

    This may be tough for a follower of TP, it is quite straightforward for a follower of CFS.  I happen to be standing in the here and now.  I don’t live in the past, that is why it is called the past and not now.

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #67 on: Today at 09:12:12 PM »

    Don’t know what CFS is

    A common Diner Acronym.

    CFS= Common Fucking Sense ;D

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #69 on: Today at 10:04:11 PM »

    Okay  :)

    So, your CFS tells you that your myth tells you that the world is like this or like that.

    But over there, in the next door valley, the other guy has a different myth, that tell him or her, that it’s a different story.

    More CFS.  Long as the other guy stays over in the next valley, he can live by whatever set of myths float his boat.

    However once the other guy’s waste starts overflowing his borders and impacts our valley, we gotta agree on a common mythology that everybody has to keep a clean valley.  Anybody not keeping a clean valley will be the first to go here, since they will poison themselves first.  Then the Clean Valley Mythology people go in and take over the valley and Rehab it.  A team of Clean Valley Experts will be sent in fist to remove Radioactive Waste and encase it in specialized Depleted Uranium-Tungsten Carbide clad drilling torpedoes which will be dropped in a subduction zone in the Marianas Trench to begin their Journey to the Center of the Earth to join their Radioactive Brother and Sister elements in the core and do Good Works instead of being a nuisance up here in the Biosphere where they don’t belong.  :D

    RE

    Re: 2 Post/Day Overflow Thread
    « Reply #70 on: Today at 10:11:30 PM »
    Quote from: B9

    Anyway, the reason for this long exposition is this: all this shit only works because I dump boatloads of fertilizer (good ‘ole triple-16) every time I rotate & condition the soil. Oh sure, we mix in all the compost (we actually have quite a bit), but it’s just to amend the soil. The real action comes from the chemicals.

    In years past, I’d sometimes lapse and put down less, and you know what the results were? You got it, we didn’t get shit.

    Now, with all this being said (oh, did I mention we have 3 chickens and a rabbit?), could we actually depend on feeding our family from these efforts? Are you fucking kidding me? This is a classic hobby farm – we produce enough food over a year to last maybe, maybe 7 days. And that would be a stretch.

    You clearly need our Team of Permaculture Experts, Green Thumbs & Hydroponics Technologists to come in and transform your chemically augmented Hobby Farm into a Food Forest.  We will only charge you double the normal rate.  ;D

    RE

  59. Martin Says:

    This is supposed to pass for intelligent conversation on NBL?

    No, just my own inadequacy. But I did go back and listen to Sharry and read his essay. I think it’s pablum. And now that I’ve failed, I’m off the hook, thank God, and can go back to watching Breaking Bad. 8-)

  60. Tom Says:

    2nd post (first missing, like yesterday)

    http://xposethereal.com/alternative-news/dead-whales-are-showing-up-bringing-us-a-message-the-entire-world-should-see.html

    Dead Whales Are Showing Up Bringing Us A Message The Entire World Should See

    More people are starting to look at what we’ve done to this planet, especially since the birth of the technological revolution. Our oceans have been suffering for a very long time, with countless oil spills and toxic waste dumped into them every single day from industrial practices and more. Despite having numerous ways to operate in a fashion that is more harmonious with the planet, we continue to choose to destroy our planet on a daily basis, and we can’t afford to do that anymore. Despite how much our planet is suffering, people everyday are starting wake up and realize that we really do need to look at, question, and change the way we operate here on planet Earth. This shift in perception alone can help springboard us towards change, and creating a new experience for us and other beings who we share the planet with.

    Whales have been showing up dead on multiple beaches, bringing us a message with stomachs full of plastic. This has happened multiple times. In the summer of july 2013, a sperm whale was stranded on Tershelling, a Northern island in the Netherlands. The whale swallowed 56 different plastic items that totalled over 37 pounds. In april 2010, a gray whale died after stranding itself on a West Seattle beach, it was found to have over 20 plastic bags, small towels, surgical gloves, plastic pieces, duct tape, and more in its system. In March of 2013 a dead sperm whale washed up on Spain’s South coast which swallowed 17kg of plastic waste.

    The list goes on and on. Keep in mind, these are whales who choose to beach themselves or have washed up on shore, think about all the whales and other marine beings that don’t. (there’s more)

  61. RE Says:

    Since none of the clips I dropped on in the Forum embedded, I thought I would drop a Cinderella Man clip here to close out the commentary for the night. :)

    RE

  62. Bob S. Says:

    monsta666 Says: “So why the resistance to trying to survive the collapse? I don’t get it…”

    Pleased to meet you monsta666.

    First, That’s because resistance to trying to survive isn’t the message here at NBL. It’s the strawman RE invented so all the hopium trolls can rush in and insult the regulars at will. Sure we discuss our personal feelings of despair when they arise – but that’s hardly resistance to trying to survive.

    Second, NBL is directed at posts and discussions about NTHE. It’s not about if NTE is possible, or about fat lady’s singing, or last man standing, or king of the mountain, or any of RE’s hopium rants – there are hundreds of blogs like that, the Diner is just one. They would be glad to have you.

    I see the Diner invasion as just that – an invasion into the space of folks who don’t want to hear it – like Atheists going to a Christian blog (or visa versa) and insulting all the regulars for their beliefs. It’s juvenile.

    Third, I happen to personally believe that NBL was invaded by a Trojan Horse disguised as “uncontrollable” spam and malfunctioning blog. Now maybe Dr. McPherson stayed up all night milking his goat with one hand and deleting spam with the other, but when I showed up here pre-migration, I saw no spam (maybe 2 posts – easily handled by a WP plugin} and no blog malfunctions. Perhaps a few blips, but nothing of consequence I could see.

    Perhaps the Diner gifted hosting to NBL – which would IMO be a nice gesture. But a gaggle of hopium trolls isn’t so sweet.

    Now since I have no inside knowledge of NBL blog administration, I certainly could be wrong – but I saw NO evidence of NBL being “overrun” with spam.

    The “techno wizard” seems to have lost his wand, as regulars have been trying to get things to work properly since the “fix”. It succeeded in adding a forum so the heavy posters can end run around the two post a day rule on the blog – like RE’s summary of his days posts – now he can post 50 posts a day, condense them into two, and viola – SUN’s insulting, god complex ambassador can be sure his every insult reaches the regulars who have abandoned the forum.

    Mike Ruppert said – NBL – at last – a place to go cry in peace. Seems he spoke too soon.

  63. ulvfugl Says:

    My personal position is not so much viewing NTHE and the collapse of civilisation, which concerns so many of the collapsniks who look at the economics and the climate and so forth.

    I think that, if you look at the much longer term, the whole of geological history, and the previous mass extinction events, what we are doing to the biosphere NOW is so startling and shocking, so rapid, I just cannot believe that it can be anything OTHER than another mass extinction event

    Even taking into account the difficulties of comparing the fossil and modern records, and applying conservative comparative methods that favour minimizing the differences between fossil and modern extinction metrics, there are clear indications that losing species now in the ‘critically endangered’ category would propel the world to a state of mass extinction that has previously been seen only five times in about 540 million years. Additional losses of species in the ‘endangered’ and ‘vulnerable’ categories could accomplish the sixth mass extinction in just a few centuries. It may be of particular concern that this extinction trajectory would play out under conditions that resemble the ‘perfect storm’ that coincided with past mass extinctions: multiple, atypical high-intensity ecological stressors, including rapid, unusual climate change and highly elevated atmospheric CO2.

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v471/n7336/full/nature09678.html%3FWT.ec_id%3DNATURE-

    @ Bob S.

    My take is that all that trollery was coming from a different source, but I could be wrong. I’d prefer to give RE and associates the benefit of the doubt, and I suspect you’re being somewhat paranoid and seeing conspiracies that don’t exist.

  64. Guy McPherson Says:

    With thanks to RE for his contributions, I’ve posted an essay by Carolyn Baker. It’s here.

  65. Sabine Says:

    @RE

    Dear RE,
    It’s very obvious from your overactive presence on NBL that you are a young man. That’s great. Good for you! So you probably won’t listen to an old hag like me. That’s also OK. But say it I will. You are full of good ideas for people like yourself, and if you would just stop a moment and breathe, you might realise that the regulars on this blog are in a totally different place. One that’s just as valid as yours but far beyond – over the border and living in the background. Who knows, if you get the chance to live long enough and actually slow down to develop some awareness about these things, not try to control everything and just BE (once in a while), you might just become wise enough to be able to glimpse that there are other ways of being which are NOT pathological just because there don’t involve hope. Guy’s way is precisely why most of us were attracted to this beach in the fist place. We were not convinced by him, we were already in this place in our minds. All of us having come to the same conclusions quite separately. That’s possible. Please, please respect that. Bob S is spot on when he compares your behaviour with atheists going on Christian blogs. And it is juvenile. You don’t have to be a missionary. And we don’t need a mission statement. I for one can get out of bed with much joy every morning and just relate to and care for the beings that are important: animals, plants and beloved humans, including the wise and thoughtful ones on this beach. When you’ve lived and learned (not just taken in and broadcast information) quite consciously for many decades, it’s really possible to live without hope(wishful thinking)and still be mentally healthy. Perhaps you should be just a little more contemplative and a little less active? Try it, you might learn something and gain a little wisdom before your time.
    Apart from this criticism and hoping that you’ll conduct yourself more maturely in the future, I wish you luck with all your projects and may you survive as long as possible.

  66. RE Says:

    Since this article has now been superceeded, the 2 post/day rule is no longer in effect as I understand it.

    “It’s very obvious from your overactive presence on NBL that you are a young man. That’s great. Good for you! So you probably won’t listen to an old hag like me.”

    You could not have got that one more wrong.

    From an Old Fart to an Old Hag, you either have an attitude of Hopefulness or Hopelessness. There is a scale here of course, nobody except complete ideologues are one or the other.

    The zeitgeist here is one of hopelessness. That is plain obvious. The non-stop references to Kubler-Ross, the Grief discussions all the rest hammer this home.

    I don’t buy this and I am no young whippersnapper. It’s a meme of capitulation, plain and simple.

    RE

  67. William Hunter Duncan Says:

    I’ve been called some extraordinary names, in my travels on the Internet. Nowhere have I ever been called a purveyor of hopium. LOL

    (by a people who WANT NTHE, apparently.)

    WHD

  68. Artleads Says:

    RE

    I guess I’m the old (76) broken down, half a horse version of you. :-)

    But I don’t see age as the issue.

  69. Apneaman Says:

    @Sabine

    I think your spot on I also see that whole restless American thing that Guy, Morris Berman and many others have pointed out.

    “It’s very obvious from your overactive presence on NBL that you are a young man.”

    I see, RE’s overactive presence, aggressiveness and disrespect towards others right to self determine, as exhibiting many of the characteristics of the American Empire. RE’s offer to help seems to have a price. I think RE pulled an economic hitman on Guy. Much like a World Bank/IMF loan. Come barging into the country of NBL with all the structural reforms, and the I know what’s best for y’all attitude and pissing off the natives. Does this sound familiar to anyone? I thought he got the point, but he was just reformulating the strategy. Now he is back with an even bigger propaganda campaign, except this time he brought back up.

    I do not want to say every American is like this, I know that’s not true (I was married to one and lived in Georgia for 7 years) but it’s very much apart of the American psyche.

  70. ulvfugl Says:

    Infiltration of Political Movements is the Norm, Not the Exception in the United States.

    http://www.metafilter.com/136360/Undercover-Keep-it-all-out-of-sight

  71. RE Says:

    “I think that, if you look at the much longer term, the whole of geological history, and the previous mass extinction events, what we are doing to the biosphere NOW is so startling and shocking, so rapid, I just cannot believe that it can be anything OTHER than another mass extinction event”- UF

    I agree, there is no doubt whastoever that we are in the midst of a mass extinction event. However, in NONE of the prior 5 extinctions were all species killed off. If they all had been, of course there would not have been any life afterward, eh?

    These extinctions seem to take out anywhere from 75-90% of all species. Here’s the rundown for the first 5 MEEs:

    “Caused by a devastatingly long ice age, the 1st Extinction, or Ordovician-Silurian, brought about the death of 85% of all marine species over a period of 10 million years.

    A lack of environmental oxygen (anoxia) caused the 2nd Extinction, or Late Devonian. More than 75% of both marine and terrestrial species disappeared. This mass extinction lasted over 25 million years.

    The 3rd Extinction, or Permian-Triasic, eliminated 95% of species. A combination of anoxia, volcanic activity and one or more asteroid impacts precipitated this mass extinction. . The Permian-Triasic extinction is often referred to as the Great Dying and lasted only 100,000 years.

    During the the 4th Extinction, or Triassic-Jurassic, 90% of all species died within just 10,000 years. Like the 3rd Extinction, the 4th Extinction was caused by massive volcanic activity, asteroid impacts and severe climate change.

    Most well-know, the 5th Extinction, or Cretaceous-Tertiary, ended the age of the dinosaurs and caused the death 85% of all species around 65 million years ago. This mass extinction is widely accepted to have been caused by major asteroid impacts.”

    Of course one of the survivors of the 5th MEE was a small shrew-like burrowing creature which eventually led to Homo Sapiens.

    So the question here for this MEE is whether HS can be one of the 10-25% of species to make it through this one? That is of course assuming you WANT HS to survive this MEE?

    You clearly do NOT want HS to survive, you have explicitly told me so. The survival of Crows concerns you more than the survival of HS.

    This appears to be a fairly common sentiment here, that HS is a Plague on the Planet and the Sooner we Go Extinct, the Better. I am not so misanthropic as this. HS lived in harmony with Nature for many millenia, probably for about 60,000 years from the time Toba went Ballistic until the beginning of Agriculture. So HS isn’t inherently bad, we just took the wrong road.

    I’m hopeful that if a few HS can make it through this Zero Point, on the next go round we will do a better job of stewardship of the Spaceship Earth.

    RE

  72. ulvfugl Says:

    @ RE

    Well, I’m glad we agree on that much :-)

    The subtle difference I was pointing to, is that a lot of folk haggle about Guy’s time frame re NTE in the next x number of years, whereas when I look at it in a geo-chronological time frame, who cares whether it’s 2025 or 2065 when it gets to x deg.C, the fact is, we are on the brink of a mass extinction event that WE have precipitated and so WE have erased our own children’s future, as well as removing that of most of the rest of life on Earth.

    This seems so appalling as to be entirely beyond words.

    Regarding wanting to survive.

    Well, I don’t know why I should care more about humans than I care about horses or dogs or elephants or whales or wolves or rheas.

    It seems to me basic logic that if you don’t ‘save’ a viable biosphere, you don’t ‘save’ humans or much else.

    Typically, when ecosystems get degraded, the big complex life forms vanish first, and instead of, say, a rich, diverse, flourishing pond with many species, birds, fish, flowers, etc, you get a black, putrid, pool with very few obvious signs of life.

    I think that’s the model to expect.

    I didn’t know any of the folk 200,000 years ago, and personally, I don’t grieve or miss them, although I am curious about their ways and what their consciousness was like. I’d love to pay a visit. Why would I care about people 200,000 years in the future ?

    I suppose there’s been a few hundred people I’ve know who have impressed me greatly, really amazing people. A lot I’ve really liked and had affection for, a lot I’ve found simple, but charming in their ways, but then there’s the great mass that are just dreadful and the privileged, the horrible, greedy, thoughtless, elite, the scheming, vile political class… really, it’s back to the crows. :-)

    Talking about taking the wrong road, I think maybe you’re still on it, when you say ‘stewardship’, because we have no right to claim stewardship, it’s that arrogance and hubris that got us into this mess, thinking we could ‘improve’ on nature.

    Your buddy Monsta’s point re the unpredictability of complex systems.

    If you are going to be a steward, this implies that you know what you are doing and can foresee outcomes. That’s the problem. With a complex system, there is no way to know what result your intervention will have.

    Richard Leakey explains this in his book The Sixth Extinction. Ecology is too complex for humans to be able to apply a simple linear approach as the stewardship model requires. It’s much more complicated than physics.

    What we’d need is a ‘hand’s off’ ‘do nothing’ ‘leave it to nature’ approach. Taoism not Judaeo-Christian or Western Scientific materialism.

    No chance of that, though, is there. What we’ll get is fanatics, insisting ‘Something must be done’ and proposing billion dollar Halliburton geo-engineering schemes which fuck everything up on a multi-mega scale.

  73. Artleads Says:

    “What we’d need is a ‘hand’s off’ ‘do nothing’ ‘leave it to nature’ approach. Taoism not Judaeo-Christian or Western Scientific materialism.”

    Agreed.

    “No chance of that, though, is there. What we’ll get is fanatics, insisting ‘Something must be done’ and proposing billion dollar Halliburton geo-engineering schemes which fuck everything up on a multi-mega scale.”

    We can’t help that. Some Taoist or other said to the effect: When the prince is in a good place so too is the nation. One sets an example. If no one follows it (which is not the way it tends to work) “then there our journey ends.” If everyone (meaning everyone, or even a critical mass) then the outcome could be different. As long as the goal remains the certainty of success instead of setting the correct example, we have given a green light to the sociopaths.

  74. RE Says:

    “Talking about taking the wrong road, I think maybe you’re still on it, when you say ‘stewardship’, because we have no right to claim stewardship, it’s that arrogance and hubris that got us into this mess, thinking we could ‘improve’ on nature.

    Your buddy Monsta’s point re the unpredictability of complex systems.

    If you are going to be a steward, this implies that you know what you are doing and can foresee outcomes. That’s the problem. With a complex system, there is no way to know what result your intervention will have.”- UF

    It’s not hubris. HS gets this job gifted from Nature as Top of the Food Chain predator along with sentience. There’s no other creature that can keep HS in check. Well, microbes can, but overall if HS doesn’t keep itself in check nothing else will. We did pretty good with this for 60,000 years until Ag and Metallurgy hit the scene.

    In terms of chances of re-establishing good practices, it’s going to take quite a massive population knockdown in all likelihood, though in theory if you could get everyone working together the population hit would not have to be as massive as it is likely to be.

    RE

  75. RE Says:

    “The subtle difference I was pointing to, is that a lot of folk haggle about Guy’s time frame re NTE in the next x number of years, whereas when I look at it in a geo-chronological time frame, who cares whether it’s 2025 or 2065 when it gets to x deg.C, the fact is, we are on the brink of a mass extinction event that WE have precipitated and so WE have erased our own children’s future, as well as removing that of most of the rest of life on Earth.”-UF

    Well, first off, Extinction of all Life on Earth is a Lock inside around 300M years or so no matter what. Sooner than that, Yellowstone will blow. MAYBE another 100-200K years before that one goes, MAX.

    It makes no difference whether it is in 100, 1000, 10,000 or 100K years, since nobody alive now will be alive then. SOME generation was going to have to face down Extinction at some point, so if you believe it is inevitable here, you won the LOTTO. You get to be alive to witness from the 50 yard line not only the crash of Industrial Civilization, but the Extinction of Humanity. Well, you’ll probably die before the last person left does, but you still are in the generation it happened to out of thousands, more than that if you include earlier hominids.

    The only thing HS might have done here is accelerate the timeline some, and if you want to place blame, you could place the blame on Mother Earth for spawning HS to begin with. You could think of HS as a sort of Living Supervolcano that was bound to blow off eventually.

    Besides this, I am by no means convinced HS is the proximal cause for climate change, as I have mentioned before the data I look at makes a better case for geotectonic causation. I think HS has accelerated the problem, but we would have faced it down anyhow even with idealized living. Increased geotectonic activity was the cause of both the 3rd and 4th MEE’s, and we appear to be seeing precisely the same sort of increase going on now.

    Whatever the cause, it was always an inevitability that some generation of HS would face the problem. The main question is whether HS is one of the 5-25% of species to make it through this one, unless of course you are more concerned about Crows than HS.

    It’s not true that only Primitive life forms made it through the earlier MEE’s, since Vertebrate morphology was conserved through the last 2 of them. HS has a new advantage for this one, sentience and the ability to adapt quickly to a changing environment.

    Clearly it is likely many neighborhoods will become uninhabitable, but not so likely is that all will. It doesn’t take many to make it through an MEE, in the case of Toba only an estimated 10,000 Human Souls or 1000 Breeding Pairs made it through that one. After a few millenia of some very tough times no doubt, said 1000 Breeding Pairs ended up overrunning the earth with 7B or so now, in just under 75,000 years or so.

    How can you be certain 1000 Human Souls can’t pull off this stunt again? It’s not carved in stone. What I get in reading here is a sense of misanthropy, that many HOPE HS goes extinct, because they believe HS to be inherently bad. I don’t hold that viewpoint. I think Evil has run amok here since the beginning of Ag and Metallurgy, but I don’t think it is inherent in the species.

    So anyhow, the upshot here is what you choose to do to deal with what is an oncoming storm no matter which way it goes. Do you try to ride out the storm, or do you give up and quit? Our choice is to try to ride it out, and it is not Unrealistic Hopium to try to do that. It has been DONE before, and it can be DONE again. Not if you quit though can it be done.

    RE

  76. ulvfugl Says:

    @ Bailey

    Hi, Bailey, much snow in Florida, you just emerged from hibernation ?

    @ RE

    “Talking about taking the wrong road, I think maybe you’re still on it, when you say ‘stewardship’, because we have no right to claim stewardship, it’s that arrogance and hubris that got us into this mess, thinking we could ‘improve’ on nature.

    Your buddy Monsta’s point re the unpredictability of complex systems.

    If you are going to be a steward, this implies that you know what you are doing and can foresee outcomes. That’s the problem. With a complex system, there is no way to know what result your intervention will have.”- UF

    It’s not hubris. HS gets this job gifted from Nature as Top of the Food Chain predator along with sentience. There’s no other creature that can keep HS in check. Well, microbes can, but overall if HS doesn’t keep itself in check nothing else will. We did pretty good with this for 60,000 years until Ag and Metallurgy hit the scene.

    That’s side-stepping the point.

    It’s the quality of the relationship that we see ourselves as having with Earth.

    When you define us as ‘stewards’ that implies a whole bundle of implicit assumptions. This is not going to be sorted in a comment here, but was touched on in your comments re myths and in the thread re patriarchy and elsewhere.

    I mean, WE make up these stories, ‘alpha male’, ‘apex predator’, ‘the pinnacle of Creation’, etc, all this self-aggrandisement, and give ourselves this self-appointed task, re ‘stewardship’, as if we had some idea as to what we are, what the Earth is, and where we are going, and what we are supposed to DO.

    The ONLY obvious thing to do, is to stop fucking up what was working perfectly well until we fucked it up. That is, the world we came into.

    That is, STOP the pollution and destruction of the natural order we inherited.

    Unfortunately, we have the myth that came out of the Judaeo-Christian people, that said that God had left the world imperfect and it was the task of humans to improve it.

    And then we got another myth, which came from Francis Bacon’s Utopia, with the foundation of modern science “enlarging the bounds of human empire to the effecting of all things possible”.

    Put those two together, and join them to Capitalism, and unfettered greed, and you have a recipe for the destruction of Mother Earth and a Mass Extinction Event.

    (I’m using the term myth quite loosely here).

    So, what my point was, the key to this is the precise nature of the relationship between the sentient beings and the Earth.

    At the moment, far from being ‘stewards’, they are rapists and pillagers, or at least the dominant sector is, and they consider only their own short term interest.

    But the ‘stewardship’ model doesn’t work either. It would have to consider the interests of all the species, all the time, and to know what the Earth, as a whole was for, or what it’s purpose or meaning was, or where it was headed, or whatever. We have absolutely no clue about any of these things.

    All we know is that it was doing fine before we trashed it, and it produced us. Some of us decided that we had ‘dominion’ and were entitled to ‘enlarge the bounds of human empire’, and look what’s happened.

  77. RE Says:

    “All we know is that it was doing fine before we trashed it, and it produced us. Some of us decided that we had ‘dominion’ and were entitled to ‘enlarge the bounds of human empire’, and look what’s happened.”-UF

    Well, it wasn’t ALWAYS doing fine, even before we arrived on the scene. I mean, 5 Mass Extinctions is a pretty good record of CRASHES on a Global Scale we haven’t yet achieved even ONCE!

    I don’t have any great affection for the folks who have been running the show here in our era, nor much for those who ran it going back in the history I can still read from, accurate as that may or may not be.

    However, just because we worked our way into a bad paradigm with some assholes at the helm is not a condemnation of the species as a whole, IMHO. When this sucker goes down, these folks won’t be maintaining power anyhow, this is dependent on structures built since the dawn of agriculture that cannot be maintained. So a new paradigm will emerge, just we cannot be sure what it will be at this point. Could be very bad of course, and better chance that it is a bad one if GOOD people QUIT.

    Your take: “The Bad Guys WON. It’s OVAH”.

    My Take: “The Bad Guys are OUT OF GAS. Time has come to make them PAY. Then time to build a Better Tomorrow.”

    You wanna go out of the world bemoaning defeat? Feel free, be my guest. That is not the way I will go out. I will go out SWINGING.

    RE

  78. ulvfugl Says:

    @ RE

    Your take: “The Bad Guys WON. It’s OVAH”.

    My Take: “The Bad Guys are OUT OF GAS. Time has come to make them PAY. Then time to build a Better Tomorrow.”

    Please pay closer attention to what I actually say.

    It’s over, because climate chaos cannot be fixed and irreversible positive feedback loops cannot be reversed, and ocean acidification just on its own is sufficient to cause an extinction event, and I’m not into telling people lies about a ‘Better Tomorrow’ that can’t happen.

    I never give up until I am dead. Just because my city has fallen does not mean I surrender or stop fighting. The walls are breached, the enemy is within, the battles is lost, but I fight because I am a warrior and that is what I do, they will kill me or enslave me, and I’m not going to be a slave in my own city, so all your taunts and jibes are directed to the wrong person, because I have been saying this over and over again ever since I have been here.

    Well, it wasn’t ALWAYS doing fine, etc.

    Yes, of course. It recovered. And re-established itself. Point is, ‘it’, whatever ‘it’ is – we have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA – knows how to do this. WE do not.

    We only know how to make a mess. You seem to think that, somehow, some future, there will be another lot of us who will know better.

    Well, maybe.

    Classical mythology abounds with stories of the Earth taking her revenge on those who destroy the natural world. So, Erysichthon, whose name means “Tearer of Earth”, cut down a tree inhabited by a dryad in spite of the tree spirit’s protests. The spirit complained to Mother Earth, who afflicted Erysichthon with insatiable hunger. Orion boasted that he would kill all the animals in the world. This too was reported to Mother Earth, who sent a monstrous scorpion to sting him to death. Their star-signs oppose each other in the sky even today – a message, perhaps, to those who live now of the consequences of adopting a world-view that is in direct opposition to the interests of the Earth.

    http://www.edwardgoldsmith.org/768/archaic-societies-and-cosmic-order-a-summary/

  79. ulvfugl Says:

    You know, accidents happen.

    “A fire at Iron Mountain’s data warehouse in Buenos Aires left the facility ‘ruined’ and killed nine first-responders, according to the Washington Post. The origin of the fire is unknown. The facility was supposedly equipped with sprinkler systems, fire control systems, and had a private emergency team on standby. Among the records destroyed are Argentina’s bank archives, the loss of which could have some surprisingly far-reaching implications.”

  80. RE Says:

    “It’s over, because climate chaos cannot be fixed and irreversible positive feedback loops cannot be reversed, and ocean acidification just on its own is sufficient to cause an extinction event, and I’m not into telling people lies about a ‘Better Tomorrow’ that can’t happen.”-UF

    It obviously can be reversed. Climate Change did not continue on an inexorable upward slope of temps after the PETM. The Geological Record PROVES that such climatic changes can be reversed. Or do you deny that the Earth cooled back down after the PETM?

    A Better Tomorrow CAN happen, just not in the real short term here. The few survivors are likely to have to slog it out for millenia before things get even marginally better. How long do you think it took for things to improve after Toba went ballistic? Had to take at LEAST a millenia for things to get even reasonably back to”normal”.

    Quitters like you don’t make it through the tough times like Toba. Heliopaths SURVIVE. We do whatever it takes. Gotta live in a Concrete Eggshell for a while? Will do. Gotta grow food in a hydroponic bathtub for a while? Will do. Gotta eat worms for animal protein instead of ribeye steaks? Will do. (BTW, I am CHAMPION Worm Eater. Grubs too. Insects, no problem!Top of the Food Chain! LOL. :) )

    You think very short term. ELEs take a long time to play out. HS won’t go extinct in a flash, population will decrease RAPIDLY, but it is asymptotic decrease. Even the Reindeer on St. Matthews Island did not drop to ZERO in population on their crash, 46 remained.

    You tough it out. In each of the prior Mass Extinctions, a percentage of species toughed it out. Why should this time be so different, eh? 5% Odds? Those are GOOD ODDS! 1 in 20 can make it through with those odds.

    Won’t be the QUITTERS though.

    RE

  81. ulvfugl Says:

    @ RE

    Hahaha, I think you’re just trying to get more comments for your thread, Ralph. :-)

    I’ve already replied to these points a couple of times.

    It obviously can be reversed. Climate Change did not continue on an inexorable upward slope of temps after the PETM. The Geological Record PROVES that such climatic changes can be reversed. Or do you deny that the Earth cooled back down after the PETM?

    Sure. It’ll settle down again, all by itself, in about 80-100 thousand years. Point is that there is nothing that WE can do that’s going to fix it. Reducing emissions is a good idea, but it does not get our stable Holocene climate back.

    A Better Tomorrow CAN happen, just not in the real short term here. The few survivors are likely to have to slog it out for millenia before things get even marginally better. How long do you think it took for things to improve after Toba went ballistic? Had to take at LEAST a millenia for things to get even reasonably back to”normal”.

    Well, for ME, like the word, ‘tomorrow’ means ‘in the morning’, or you could stretch it, to mean some reasonably attainable future I can foresee, but MILLENNIA of slogging is beyond my horizon of foreseeable possibility, and given what I CAN foresee, like anoxic oceans, being ‘BETTER’ than living ones, blahblah, I think you’ve got a hard sell, despite your gifts as a high pressure salesman. :-)

    Didn’t Vonnegut write a book about you worm eating Champions ? Think I read it, years ago. I don’t mind you eating maggots and surviving. I have no objection at all. I think it’s a fine idea. Maggots, worms, beetles, slugs. Soup for breakfast. Pretty much what crows live on.
    Think I’ll put my money on the corvidae, I bet they’ll get ‘em before you do.

  82. RE Says:

    “Think I’ll put my money on the corvidae, I bet they’ll get ‘em before you do.”-UF

    Unlikely, but even if they do, corvidae are not near as good with a sling as I am. They can eat the worms, I will eat them.

    I never made the case surviving an ELE is an easy task, I just make the case it is POSSIBLE if you are not a QUITTER.

    You are a Quitter. Thus you cannot survive. I am not a quitter. Thus it is possible I can.

    You cannot PROVE it is not possible, thus for you to come on here and make the case nobody can survive is pure propaganda. You don’t know, and you won’t even make the effort either. Your choice to make, but I won;t follow you down that path. I’ll do what I can to make it through the zero point.

    RE

  83. buz painter Says:

    IN this ongoing ‘discussion I find that my innate biases lean me to one side. That’s not as important in my mind as the question that I ask: Is this controversy a useful means of getting to truth, or is it negatively divisive and counter productive? I truly can’t decide. I do believe that action superceeds talk.

    I do see various posters talking past each other, probably more easily perceived if one doesn’t have a dog in the fight. This grazing dialog is quite common, of course, and I suspect that none of us here want to continue in this vein if we catch ourselves doing it. But, we all have blind spots. I point them out with great relish to my family and neighbors all the time. Unfortunately when they are pointed out to me it means war!

  84. ulvfugl Says:

    @ RE

    Hahahaha

    It’s not hubris. HS gets this job gifted from Nature as Top of the Food Chain predator along with sentience. There’s no other creature that can keep HS in check.

    So how can I keep your hubris in check, Ralph ? :-)

    Of course, I can’t prove a negative, you know that. But I’m not even trying to argue that, am I. I’m not saying you should NOT do what you are doing. I’ve already stated, repeatedly, that I am not OPPOSED to what you are doing, or saying that you should NOT do it, or saying it is a BAD thing to do, or anything like that.

    You’re fighting with strawmen, to the right of me, to the left of me, above me, below me, all over the fucking place, trying to find a fight, so you can have an argument, while all the time here I am standing right in front of you…

    Look, what I’m saying, we are in the brink of a mass extinction event.

    That means most species disappear.

    My rough, approximate time line, – depending upon how humans respond, whether there’s a major nuclear war, the methane ‘bomb’, global pandemic, there’s so many variables it can only be a guesstimate, – but I’d expect things will be very quiet by 2150.

    I might be wrong. There might still be your ‘small pockets of survivors’.

    But neither of us are going to know. So, I don’t think it matters enough to argue about, does it ? :-)

    And if you’re right. They have then got a planet like Mars, except it’s wetter and probably radioactive and poisonous, toxic and hostile to human existence in every respect I can think of, for probably hundreds of thousands of years, maybe millions.

    I don’t have any OBJECTION to YOUR notional attempt to go forward into that future, if that’s what YOU wish to do.

    Personally, I’m thinking this is fanciful. It’s comparable with Vinay Gupta’s plans to colonise the Universe, or the Venus Project, those super hi tech Utopian cities, and other fanciful stories people tell themselves about the future.

    Personally, the ruination of the fabulous world that we inherited is a crime so ghastly, I cannot easily just overlook that and say, ‘Oh never mind, forget the other species, let’s just take care of ourselves’, like that fellow Joe Romm did, as if that’s all that matters now.

    I’m not really interested in sharing a planet with people who are so ignorant and depraved as that. I’m not interested in joint projects with people who think they are entitled to survive above all else, at the expense of everything else. You know, that insane exhibit sponsored by the Kochs at the Smithsonian, that says we will survive in underground cities, and evolve curved spines so we can get through the tunnels more easily. I don’t WANT to survive with people like that.

    I think the horses and elephants and squirrels and bats and horseshoe crabs and leatherback turtles and manatees have as much right to be here as we have, maybe more so, as they were here first.

    You say that me saying people CANNOT survive, is propaganda. Well, you saying that people CAN survive must equally be propaganda, and so it’s your story against mine.

    But the problem is, the evidence that we actually have, right here, right now, is of global ecological collapse, which we can measure, which proceeds at an ever increasing pace. So, up to a point, we can see what’s coming. After that, it’s a lot more difficult to know.

    I think there’s going to be a lot of people who will be focussed on trying to maximise their personal chances of survival, in boats, in bunkers, in isolated doomsteads, in gated communities, on islands, all kinds of strategies, and some might last longer than others, some might get a nuclear bomb direct hit, or get the bird flu or whatever. It’s likely to be hit and miss.

    China has been through some of the worst cataclysms in history. Some of those incredible mountain retreats were made to store precious religious treasures during social chaos. You risked your life every single time you went in or out. That used to be a good way to endure catastrophe, but when it’s global, like climate or radioactive fallout, even that doesn’t work any more.

  85. Artleads Says:

    @ buzz painter

    :-)

    Blessed are the peacemakers, I guess.

  86. ulvfugl Says:

    @ RE

    Over on RC, Hank Roberts or someone recently mentioned what an amazing resilient species we are, because we colonised every continent except Antarctica, and I think this fits your story line, but I think its more self-aggrandising bullshit, as we become more and more insecure and uncertain about our future.

    The corvids have also colonised every continent. They are just as smart as proto-hominids. They can conduct conversation, ravens have a wide vocabulary, hold conferences about what they plan to do the next day, they can use tools.

    I was thinking about all your planning at the Diner, for neat technologies for survival under any kind of extreme circumstances. Thing is, those birds have already got it all sussed, they come as a ready-made survival package, they don’t need any add-on technology, they live out there in the roughest weather from the hottest to the coldest.

    Best of all, they can fly. If it’s bad, they can just move, without wasting much energy, to somewhere new, over the mountains, over the sea, over the floods or desert, no obstacle to them…

    I think they’ve got all the advantages, and they’re scavengers and carrion feeders, and you know what that means ?

    A BONANZA coming like never before ! :-)

    http://3lbmonkeybrain.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/in-anticipation-evolution-of-raven-in.html

    Anyway, I think the crux of your gripe is the ‘hope’ thing and the ‘quitter’ thing, and you’re taunting me here with points I already settled on the overflow thread on the Forum.

    I think a lot of this is cultural. I’m picturing you as the wagon train master, riding up and down, urging the poor, starving, frozen, decrepit wretches to keep the faith, and stay with it, because somewhere out West is the frontier where you’ll find the New Jerusalem and found your Better Tomorrow with a few breeding pairs, just so long as you can get them through Death Valley… so there has to be ‘HOPE’. No ‘QUITTERS’.

    But none of this resonates with me, over here.

    You see, probably the last time there was any pioneering spirit in this landscape was after the glaciers receded about 12000 years ago, and people walked up from down south.

    There’s just the tiniest glimpse to be seen in the earliest Irish mythology and in the Welsh Mabinogion. Both were Christianised oral records written down thousands of years later.

    Cesair might be about a matriarchal soceity. In the Mabinogion there’s mention of a time when Ireland and Wales were only separated by two rivers, before sea levels rose as the ice melted.

    There are better versions of Cesair somewhere, I just picked the first that came up.

    This society where I live has been ‘fixed’, static, for a very long time, and your sort of ‘hope’, with a dangling carrot of travelling forward towards a better future, and a stick of being ‘a quitter’ if you give up, makes no sense.

    We’ve always been here. There’s nowhere to go too.

    http://www.timelessmyths.com/celtic/invasions.html

  87. RE Says:

    2150? That might as well be 21,500 Your great-grandchildren won’t even be alive in 2150. The question at hand is how do those of us alive here now will negotiate the period between now and 2150? As I said in my prior post, it’s always been a lock that SOME generation, sometime would face extinction. Now you are Backtracking. You are now saying it is not our own generation that will go extinct, but the one alive in 2150. It completely destroys the argument that “there is nothing you can do”, because between now and 2150 there ARE things you can do.

    Why is what you claim Propaganda while what I claim is not? Because Propaganda is Lies. Claiming that NTHE is a Certainty is a Lie. The Truth is that we can’t be certain of what the outcome will be here, beyond the likelihood that things are going to get a lot worse before they ever get better, if they ever do.

    RE

  88. ulvfugl Says:

    Comment I made prior to the link has not arrived

  89. ulvfugl Says:

    @ RE

    No,I believe I already made clear several times, we are in the collapse now, as I see it, and what I meant by the 2150 timeline date was that’ll be when it’s over. When things go very quiet.

    Personally, I think the civilisation will be gone very much sooner than that, again, it’s very difficult, very foolish, to give dates, because there are so many variables, and so many are open to human action.

    But I think a couple of decades, 2035 ish, I doubt there’d be anything recognisable of what we see now, although I’d be happy to acknowledge some ‘small pockets of survivors’.

    But so what ? If there ARE some fifty people in a cave on Tristan da Cunha who can come out for an hour at dawn and dusk and find enough stuff in the slime on the foreshore to stay alive from day to day.. does that excite me ? Not really.

    There may BE your bunch of SUN people doing their thing. Go for it. I won’t be around in 2050 to know what you’re up to, and I doubt you’ll be around for very long, but I have no objection to you TRYING to stay around.

    I think the crows and ravens are going to have a great time. They have fantastic vision. They can spot a corpse a mile off. Couple of hours flight, they’re a hundred miles away, they don’t need to build houses or figure out how to grow stuff.

  90. RE Says:

    “I think the crows and ravens are going to have a great time. They have fantastic vision. They can spot a corpse a mile off. “-UF

    They also have much higher metabolic rates and are more susceptible to toxic substances. Ever hear of the “Canary in the Coal Mine”?

    RE

  91. buz painter Says:

    @ Artleads – After I posted up a ways I had this humorous vision of a toy Poodle stepping between two Pit Bulls. Been there before. After my first post some months ago I was accused of being a Troll. I was proud of that because it was a first for me.

    What I have tried to pay attention to for some time is my own aptitude for talking past people in my enthusiasm and trying to suss out my blind spots. The blind spots are really tough. It is like trying to describe color to a blind person. If you can’t see it you can’t see it.

    I have believed for some time that if you aren’t depressed at some point along the way you just haven’t been paying attention. But it also seems that Guy’s advice to “do what you love” is somewhat glossed over by the Doomsteaddiner tribe. Do they actually think that this is nothing but a gloomy bunch of morose party poopers over here?

    I know for a fact that all is not just SUN.com over there. We’re just all doing it the best way we know how. None of this that we consider important today will even be remembered in a hundred years. Do what you love. (Or at least do what you can get away with).

  92. ulvfugl Says:

    @ RE

    Damn, it’s annoying that comment didn’t appear.

    They also have much higher metabolic rates and are more susceptible to toxic substances. Ever hear of the “Canary in the Coal Mine”?

    Canaries maybe, but nobody took ravens or crows.

    Sure, they have some strengths and some weaknesses, depending on the circumstances, but they can live to be 50+ and have maybe 4 chicks every year. If their populations explode because they have a super abundance of food, there’s a chance a few get optimal mutations that cope with hazards they encounter. All I’m saying is that they’ve got a lot going for them.

    http://www.livescience.com/17213-ravens-gestures-animal-communication.html

  93. ulvfugl Says:

    @ RE

    What I believe is certain is that we are into a mass extinction event.

    I don’t expect the human species to survive, but there may be a small chance that some members do survive and persist for a long time. Maybe even to 2150. I’d pity them rather than seeing them as heroic, but YMMV.

    That seems to be your particular obsession. I can’t say that it interests me all that much, because, as I’ve said, neither of us are ever going to know.

    My desire would be for as many other species to survive as long as possible. I just think we have a moral obligation to help THEM. WE caused this fuck up. WHY are we only thinking of us ?

    Accusing me of telling lies is just a cheap taunt, really.

    I’m making my judgement according to the data as I read it.

    It’s impossible to be certain re the timeline, as you very well know, because of all the variables, Yellowstone, an Asteroid, the methane, nuclear war, some crazy people with a bioweapon, a major global financial meltdown next week, all kinds of incidents could occur which have a major effect on how things roll out.

    But we ALREADY have climate chaos, we ALREADY have a whole series of positive feedback loops, we ALREADY have a built in CO2 time lag which gets us to around 2 deg C by 2030-40, we ALREADY have the Fukes, we ALREADY have a planet whose surface has been changed artificially into something that is totally unnatural, we ALREADY have massive population overshoot, we’ve messed up the system in countless ways, and this is exponential.

    So we can see where it’s headed. All the indicators, all the red lights, are flashing, and the guys running the show are maniacs who are making everything worse. We pretty much agree on all of this.

    The only thing that seems to bug you is that I’m not on board with you regarding your ‘hope’, hahahaha, and therefore, I must be a ‘quitter’.

    I tried to address this, rather constructively I thought, imho, in the comment above which did not arrive, sigh…

    I don’t feel up to writing it again, just at this moment.

  94. Artleads Says:

    Buzz Painter

    I’ve seen where trying to get along is viewed as fuzzy- and weak-mindedness. Although you’d think that this was time, if ever there was one, to find common purpose.

    Guy and RE pursue off-grid self sufficiency and alternative community and economics. (I lean toward Guy’s aesthetically gentle, hands-off, do what you love message, but I very much like RE’s indomitable, never-say-die, do-something spirit–which, in my case would be, do something that is “nothing.” :-))

    Guy is convinced that what he does will not save him or his community (or anyone else), while RE is not.

    So the *actions* (especially regarding food production)on RE’s side seem to be similar to those on Guy’s and several established NBLers’. The meme’s, however, are different, but don’t seem to have much bearing on their self-sufficiency, resiliency activities.

    They both share the conviction that some sort of catastrophic end point is in the works. Meanwhile, they cooperate and support each other’s work. So do we have more that unites than that separates us?

    As to MY blind spots, better to stay mum. :-)


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