Collapse as a marathon: Take your best shot

Five years ago I predicted this omnicidal set of living arrangements would be done by the end of this year. In the intervening period, the following individuals have made predictions consistent with complete collapse of the world’s industrial economy: James Howard Kunstler, Niall Ferguson, Michael Ruppert, “Rice Farmer,” Karl Denninger, Rob Viglione, Gerald Celente, Jeff Rubin, Matt Savinar, Catherine Austin Fitts, Max Keiser , Jim Willie, Graham Summers, Charles Munger, Gonzalo Lira, Peter Schiff, John P. Hussman, Doug Casey, Jan Lundberg, Chris Hedges, Michael Snyder, Kenneth Deffeyes, Matt Simmons (deceased), Bill Bonner, Paul Craig Roberts, Marc Faber, James Wesley Rawles, Tony Robbins, Nouriel Roubini, “Tyler Durden” (the collection of analysts and writers at Zero Hedge), James Kwak, Simon Johnson, Chris Clugston, John Taylor, Bob Janjuah, Samsam Bakhtiari, Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy, Bob Chapman, George Ure, Anthony Fry, Igor Panarin, Mac Slavo, G. Edward Griffin, Joseph Meyer, Harry Dent, Lindsey Williams, Richard Russell, Harley Bassman, Niño Becerra, Martin Weiss, Stephanie Jasky, Eric deCarbonnel, Richard Mogey, Robin Landry, Robert Prechter, Pamela and Mary Anne Aden, Paul Farrell, Nassim Taleb, Gilbert Mercier, Chris Duane, John Williams, Hugh Hendry, Arthur Laffer, Daryll Robert Schoon, Jeff Gundlach, Byron King, Simon Black, Albert Bates, Gordon T. Long, Clyde Prestowitz, Bill Deagle, John Lohman, Alessio Rastani, Mark Grant, Ann Barnhardt , Christopher Greene, George Soros, Bill Clinton, and Willem Buiter.

It’s small consolation to have such abundant and varied company. American Empire didn’t fall. Neither did the Eurozone. We haven’t hit Dow 4,000 (hence capitulation of the stock markets). Hyperinflation hasn’t kicked in. Sadly, I’m still hacking away, and you’re still reading online.

Maybe next year. Here’s hoping.

This post is a gift to all those folks cheering for industrial civilization to keep on keeping on. To keep destroying every aspect of the living planet. It seems you’ve found what you’re looking for, in the spirit of the three Chinese curses, so feel free to point out I’m incorrect. Again. I’m done with predictions involving timing. And we’re done, too, in the very near future, with particular thanks to continuation of the industrialized economy. We’ve locked in near-term human extinction. First to go: those of us living in the interior of a continent in the northern hemisphere.

Same-day update: I’m featured in this week’s version of OWS Week. It’s embedded below.


_________________

The essays about motivated reasoning will remain open to commentary for another couple of days. During that time, I’ll be traveling.

Comments 204

  • I’d put it sometime in 2016, for a number of indicators. Very likely a financial crisis that will dwarf the one we have seen so far. Certainly the beginnings of a collapse of available services. And an unmistakeable peak in both industrial and food production per capita. Downhill from there. Just based on some modelling. Some crisis may precipitate the slide sooner, but it is unlikely to be much later than that.

  • Hey Guy….. you left MY name out of that list…… :{)

    It’s always a bit tricky putting dates to events like these… Ehrlich got caught with his pants down too. And now it looks like the Mayans got it wrong too..!

    I’m frankly amazed the wheels haven’t fallen off yet; but you must admit, there are so many hamsters pedalling like mad behind the scenes to keep the Matrix going, I’m getting less and less surprised at just how far down the road they can kick the cans…..

    We all know that the longer it takes, the worse the crash will be. Maybe this year?

  • Hi Guy,

    Sorry to read the bitterness. Your talk at UMass Amherst kicked me the last bit of the way into myself. I’ve increased doing my part, in the small ways a single person can, by reaching out more explicitly to those closest to me (in heart as well as proximity).

    Mike’s notion of the hamsters peddling to keep the Matrix going – excellent! Reminds me to finish editing a video…

    Another friend shared a Pema Chodron quote to Facebook about the same time as this blog entry of yours, it speaks to me on many levels, including pain and grief for the world.

    ‎”To stay with that shakiness—to stay with a broken heart, with a rumbling stomach, with the feeling of hopelessness and wanting to get revenge—that is the path of true awakening. Sticking with that uncertainty, getting the knack of relaxing in the midst of chaos, learning not to panic—this is the spiritual path.”

    The Mayans’ predictions, btw, include awakening as well as cataclysmic change. Seems to me the two are going to go hand-in-hand. Hopefully the numbers of people moving out of zombification into awakened states will continue to increase, and those of us on the path will continue to grow our collective will.

  • While I feel the urgency of all of the above in respect of economic collapse I am no economist. On climate however I suspect the roughly 35-40 year lag effect for the generalised impact of carbon emissions on average global temperature places catastrophic collapse still some way off – after all, the extreme climate events of 2012 could best be described as the normal outcome of cumulative emissions up to the mid 1970’s. Emissions racked up a notch during the 80’s and 90’s and on average doubled to over 2% increase per annum during the 2000’s, took a small dip in 2009, and are now increasing at around 3% per annum. This suggests the great cull may be underway in the 2040’s. Of course everyone’s catastrophe seems final, as it was to those who have perished, but as Orlov notes, you don’t really notice the enormity of the die-off till you look at your class photo and realise most of your friends are dead. This has not yet been my fortune in the so-called “lucky country”, even though my countrymen and governments blithely persist as global leaders in coal exports and per capita carbon emissions. Even if a cyclone Sandy, extreme drought in the SE, and killer cyclone seasons become the new normal for the US, the mess can be cleaned up and rebuilt, although where I am from I’d give more thought to living underground (on higher ground) – unlike the developing world where reconstruction is much more a challenge or an impossibility. How long the US or the Western industrial system can keep externalising its survival costs, in terms of access to resources, food and energy is for me an economic imponderable and I defer to knowledgeable economic and geopolitical commentators. Even so, I foresee no specific catastrophic event other than the one that I will have to deal with when it happens to me – despite my avoidance and survival strategies. Following Orlov, my priority is to teach my kids the skills that I believe will make them the kind of people most likely to survive.

  • Steph, I appreciated your name being linked to your own writing. I’ve decided to do the same, here, tremulously. We must live fairly close to each other. Come hang out.

    Guy, you have marked the failure of the timing predictions to come true. (But we still have a few days left before the end of 2012, right?) What sort of gift or congratulations are in order for the cheerleaders of industrial civilization? Corpses of entire species at their feet? Ravaged societies? Dead children? The prediction that remains true is that the longer Civ is prolonged, the worse it will be, for everyone. And so it has come to pass. The ones that are still alive now are not the first ones to go, I feel compelled to point out. The first ones to go are already gone. Meanwhile, may your travels be bold, both within and without. (I reconsidered writing “safe travels.” A futile wish.)

  • Hi Jen, yes – we must be close, funny that you were in the audience at Guy’s talk. I wish I had actually known about the livestreaming in advance, because we could have made the interpretation accessible to a wider audience. Oh well (I’m good at noticing missed opportunities, ha).

    Your sentiment to travel boldly is great. I understand the trepidation of linking my name publicly with these pronouncements of impending doom. Took me over a week to post that blogentry (http://www.reflexivity.us/wp/2012/12/get-off-the-grid-or-why-ive-been-pensive-lately/) because of . . . various worries. Will my entire social circle change? What about those friends who have helped hold me in place while I flailed around for my own solid center? In the past, I’ve let anticipated pain overrule present joy. It’s a tricky business, staying stable without moving into denial or some other disconnected kind of coping strategy.

    As I become more clear in myself, my sense of self-purpose strengthens and – lo-and-behold! There are good feelings here! Bill McKibben is right on this point: we’ve got a chance and we’ve got to use it.

  • Guy, sadly it no longer seems to matter that the economy didn’t collapse this year, although admittedly we have a few days left, even a few hours for the Mayan calendar end of the world to come to pass.
    The picture at this link says it all for me
    http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b017744cf5360970d-pi
    Climate change is racing ahead of everyone’s predictions, it is out of our hands. The powerlessness of humans to save themselves is going to be more and more apparent. For that reason probably they will end us all with a nuclear war just so they can play their game of Last Man Standing.

  • Guy

    This maybe said by others before…

    This collapse thing all depends on what you define as a collapse.
    I’m sure many living during 1930-45 in Europe, especially non violent peaceloving Germans would have viewed their countries slide into a totalitarian state as a type of collapse.

    That is not making excuses for the lack of outright collapse.

    As I tell anyone who will listen, once Peak Oil hits home, and cheap oil is no longer an inexpensive engine of the industrial economy, then economic ‘growth’ is no longer possible, at least in such a prolific way.
    So no more easy fuel into the front end of the industrial economy, hedged by some brief replacements by coal and gas, but essentially once the spluttering stops at the back end or outlet of the industrial economy, the only way to maintain anything like the present standards of living in Anex-1 nations is to squeeze more ‘value’, ‘efficiency’ or sweat from the labour forces. This means at first, all working harder for less and for longer at the same range and class of employment existing now.
    Soon this will run into some form of greater slavery for many more, and also Non-Anex-1 nations will get screwed into famine and greater poverty than we ever thought possible.

    Rule No 1:
    Capitalism always needs a form of labour to exploit, and when it is feasable, that labour is replaced by technology.

    The other option is a collapse, but we might as well call it a period of rapid transformation, and probably high death rates.

    So I see that either Slavery or Rapid Transformation/Collapse is probable.

    As an example of how we are already seeing the challenges to capitalism after peak oil and the rise of the middle class in Australia, the large mining and fossil fuel industrial leaders are calling for a Northern Economic Zone to be formed in Australia, so they can ‘develop’ the potential in remote and possibly arable(really?) land there. This is because present labour wages for the infrastructure by trained Australians is too high for them. They want to be able to bring in overseas non Australian workers, read China, Philipines and others, on group visas, who will have no rights to present conditions like sick pay, holiday pay, overtime rates, personal life and injury indemnity cover, and they will get a fraction of the base salary of what the jobs now earn. If they cause trouble, their labour hire company can send them back, no probems there will be plenty coming to fill that spot.

    ‘Call for northern Australian special economic zone’

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-06-20/call-for-northern-australian-special-economic-zone/2764830

    A snippet:
    “A free-market think tank says the Federal Government should follow the lead of other countries in creating a special economic zone to develop northern Australia.

    The Institute for Public Affairs says reducing taxes and regulation across the north would stimulate development and population growth.”

    ( Did that indicate …population growth? I bet thats’s how ‘cancer’ sees its main objective, endless growth!)

    Basically all the normal economic contraction economics that kick in that beni,fit the employers and business lobby groups when a recession occurs are simply going to get more and more traction, but the catch is there will be no substantial upcycle, no growth in the same way as the industrial economy is use to exploiting and if there is any assuageing of a steep decline, it will be because someone is getting substantially screwed even more.

    This will not last for very long, but even a top shelf surveilence state aparatus cannot control populations who have nothing to lose due to hunger, disease induced by malnutrition and unemployment.

    I agree it is very surprising that the ‘Beast’ is not rotting by now, but just because the death throes are rare not clearly apparrent does not mean your and others analysis is not sound.

    It may just mean that the ‘Beast’ has a bag of tricks it can and will resort to before it breaths its last substantial breath.

    Remember, no economic upcycle is coming now. All we get is more unemployment and bargaining or stripping away of worker and civic entitlements and ‘rights’ until even a monkey could sign to its tree dwelling neighbour that they, the monkeys, babboons and gorillas, were the smart ones for opting for remaining in trees and shunning the expanding savanna grasses we went blindly into for a feed.

    Lastly Guy, please remember that no one is wrong when they stand up and defend the living beings and planet, by making an argument for the common good, that should make everyone, even those presently ignorant of the death and destruction their way of life manifests, reflect and respond and change the status quo. That they do not is no fault of the one who stands and fights the just fight.

    We are not at the terminus just yet.

    As an aside, IMO, it is consistant that when a Piscean temperament sacrifices for the greater good, if it is done for the clear selfless reasons they are intending, then they usually expect it to make a significant difference.

    One problem with that process, is there may be upwards of 5 or so billion others specifically doing no such thing, and quite the opposite, and to me the jury is still out on the overall cosmic impact of one who sacrifices completely, from the heart, for all beings.

    The characteristic ‘trap’ for Pisceans is they ‘try’ to help by intentional sacrifice, even if it is relativly spontaeneous, and the bigger the wound, or mess, the stronger the impulse to ‘give more’, or even ‘give up’ more. My real lived experience, as a Picean, is that this eminates from an unconscious sense of spiritual responsibility for the group, or tribe, ( world???). Piceans are the mystics, dreamers and healers, at least in temperament.

    If the problem persists, then it must be because their sacrifice is not great enough, or they have gotten something wrong in thier preparation etc. Ie they presume there is a problem with them, at least initially.

    It can take a long time for these people to realise their way is not inauthentic, far from it, but it negates everyone elses responsibility to do the same self transformation of mind, body, and actions in the world as they are doing. If Piceans do know this, or do learn this, then it means they have a far greater perspective from which to discriminate about where they focus their considderable healing powers, or talents.

    I’ll cop a bit of criticism for bringing up Astrological issues here, but I do so with considerable experience dodging those who perhaps we can now desribe as having some ‘motivated reasoned’ prejudice concerning the veracity and authenticity of some of the deeper cultural meanings and knowledge embedded in Astrology.

    Nothing you have done in all this attempt to save the living planet you have shared here has been a failure. I can’t say it simpler than that.

  • That all said

    Guest Post: The Interconnective Web of Global Debt
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/21/2012 11:00 -0500
    Via John Aziz of Azizonomics blog,

    It’s very big:
    Andrew Haldane:
    Interconnected networks exhibit a knife-edge, or tipping point, property. Within a certain range, connections serve as a shock-absorber. The system acts as a mutual insurance device with disturbances dispersed and dissipated. But beyond a certain range, the system can tip the wrong side of the knife-edge. Interconnections serve as shock-ampli ers, not dampeners, as losses cascade. The system acts not as a mutual insurance device but as a mutual incendiary device.

    A mutual incendiary device sounds about right.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-21/guest-post-interconnective-web-global-debt

    Just as the ice went unexpectedly quickly this year, and the economy did so in 2008, the whole shebang will likely fall quickly before long.

  • Though I was cheering for the collapse at the near financial catastrophe a short while back, I didn’t not think it would happen, and here is why; Though there are many ideological and political differences, the world economies are joined together like a tight web (think of a tree canopy whereby the weak trees are held up in a storm). So, these ‘soft falls’ will continually be averted by bailouts, forgiveness of debts, money printing, and other resourceful rescues. It will require a ‘hard fall’ whereby we hit the wall of environmental disasters before this industrial beast topples. Unfortunately, I don’t think this will happen for quite some time (Waaay too damn long!).

  • OzMan, I agree that we are in collapse, but not collapse of emissions. For the planet to be saved from out of control global warming the emissions need to stop and they haven’t done that. I think it is too late for any salvation but maybe a big Carrington Event solar flare will be just the ticket to shut down major grids (unfortunately to also lead to more Fukushimas)

    I checked spaceweather.com today and maybe there is some hope here 🙂

    FARSIDE SOLAR ACTIVITY: The Earthside of the sun remains quiet, but the farside is growing restless. During the late hours of Dec. 20th and continuing through Dec. 21st, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has recorded a series of CMEs flying over the solar limb:
    The source of the clouds appears to be multiple blast sites on the farside of the sun. This means Earth is not in the line of fire. The increasing pace of farside activity, however, suggests that the Earthside might not be far behind. Stay tuned for changes.

  • i’ve been trying to come up with a really good physical model of what “collapse” means. After a lot of thought, and a few glasses of wine last evening – i think it’s right in front of us, hiding in plain sight: a vast sinkhole.

    Before it occurs, all appears normal on the surface. Then suddenly a “hollowing out” occurs beneath the surface and the surface sinks, and as the underlying substrate continues to be eroded more and more of the surrounding once-solid surface drops into the deepening abyss. After a short while it’s much too big to be simply “filled in” and it grows and grows at its own pace (the rate having to do with unseen forces on invisible areas).

    That’s what’s happening in the financial sector, the world economy and on an individual level in societies around the world. We can certainly see how the biosphere is steadily falling away into oblivion with arctic sea ice, dying trees and actual sinkholes (again – all over the world). In some places, like Michigan and Greece, entire large areas are being swallowed up with ever fewer jobs while crime, desperation, lawlessness and death on the increase accompanied by steady decay, neglect and abandonment all around and growing.

    With a world so large, many who haven’t felt the bite of hunger or slept in the cold, dismiss it as not applying to them – until suddenly a big emergency occurs (a black swan event) – your company decides to “downsize” several thousand workers for example and there you are in the sinkhole of economic and psychological “depression.” Never saw it comin’! A medical emergency bankrupts more people anymore than does housing (in fact, for some of the people who lost their homes it was due directly to a medical condition impacting their lives). If the electrical grid fails (which i had a dream about last night) and can’t be brought back on-line in fast enough time (or at all), the collapse happens “suddenly” also.

    The dream was about this coming year. Spring came in so hot that it broke all kinds of records: 90’s in mid-March in Maine for example. The problem persisted for 8 more months – all blistering heat day and night, no wind, getting hotter and hotter as spring grew into summer. The demand for air conditioning quickly overloaded the national power grid and it couldn’t be brought back up because too many turbines burned out trying to keep up. Replacement parts and new equipment couldn’t be delivered for 5 – 8 months, and installation would be another 2, but by then everything had ground to a halt and the collapse picked up speed. With little to no rain (despite the cloud seeding) nothing grew and panic and chaos took over. People began dropping from exhaustion, heart attacks, strokes, lack of water. Suicides increased to unbelievable levels; a favorite method was to just sleep in ones car with the family, the engine running and the garage door closed and the car windows open – like my neighbors.

    After only a month the complete breakdown of civilization occured; money was useless as there was nothing to buy; social services like police, ambulance and fire protection vanished, hospitals were abandoned, and government was powerless.

    Now maybe it won’t be spring of 2013, but i could just see it all playing out: worsening conditions every day until suddenly – all hell broke loose and there was no more “culture,” cooperation or civilization. This could easily happen anywhere and everywhere between
    Alaska and Australia on the globe. Most of humanity would be wiped out within a year and, since the following year would only be worse, any survivors had nothing to look forward to and the cycle of death would continue until the nuke plants erupted and we know how it ends.

  • Okay, so I am not really into the whole New Age Mayan stuff, however, since this is posted on the end of the world day, I thought this little tidbit might be relevant. The winter solstice started happening with the sun in the dark rift of the Milky Way in 1980 (Reagan?) and will come out of it in 2016. So this is the “era” of the galactic alignment. Can the economy hold out past 2016? I hope not. In the mean time, I’ll do my best here in DC working with Chesapeake Earth First! and being the old man on the bicycle.

  • .
    Fast or Slow

    I’m a fast crash devotee—
    My view, and of course, that’s just me;
    Still, when doom gets to you
    (If there’s time for review),
    I’m guessing that you will agree.

  • It’s great to make a correct prediction, but the timing really won’t matter in 10-20 years. I remember someone saying in 1990 that humans would eviscerate the environment in 200 years. That’s close enough.

  • I like the analogy Tom. I often tell people that many of us ‘eco wackos’ are like termite and wall inspectors; We see the damage going on at the support and foundations. Meanwhile the parasites continue fussing over wall paper and furnishings (like fiscal cliffs, Greece bailouts etc). And then one day the walls collapse and the roofs caves.

  • Tom, do you mean sinkhole like the current one in Bayou Corne sinkhole in LA, or the earlier Lake Peigneur sinkhole in LA, or the Guatamela sinkhole. No I think you mean like the Brazilian Port Sinkhole http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTzn2IGRVhc 1:47 you have to see it to believe it!

  • Hey Kathy! Yeah, like either of those, or both, or even this one in Guatemala that really freaks me out (i think it’s like 300 ft deep):

    http://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?_adv_prop=image&fr=yfp-t-701-1-s&va=giant+guatemalan+sinkhole

    i was struck by the mechanics of sinkholes more than any specific physical one.

    i liked your link to big solar activity on the far side and did a little snooping around. Scientists aren’t sayin’ much but some wouldn’t be surprised if a huge solar prominence erupted on the Earth side before the year is out or early next year – there’s just no way to tell and it’s happened before – taking out the electrical grid of which ever countries happen to line up at the time.

  • We all know with certainty that we WILL die. None of knows exactly when.
    We all know with certainty that industrial civilization is doomed. None of us knows when it will finally topple over.
    There are just too many variables.

  • Human extinction might as well occur in our lifetime (rather than 200-300 years hence). We’ve created this mess and deserve to experience the consequences. I’m just thankful I didn’t bring any children into the world.

    Assuming humans do go extinct within the next 20-30 years, how will it occur? I imagine starvation will play a role as the climate becomes too chaotic to reliably grow food. And war too, as resources become strained. But could we also experience heat waves so intense as to cause mass death?

    I’m curious how folks think this will play out, i.e., the general time frame involved and the various ways our extinction will occur.

  • Cuntagious, I’m curious how folks think this will play out, i.e., the general time frame involved and the various ways our extinction will occur.

    Earlier in the month someone else posted the same question. You may have missed that, so I’ll post my response again . . .

    _________________

    I’m pretty sure that this next year we will see lots of unrest with respect to food shortages. Some of those will be felt even here in the U.S., at least insofar as the price of food continues to rise.

    The globally dispersed drought will intensify, worsening food production and water scarcity.

    I think we’ve entered the “hockey stick” phase of global temperatures. It’s going to get very hot, very quickly.

    War and social unrest will be the rule for the next few years.

    I can’t see how the financial system holds up for much longer. I won’t be at all surprised if it comes tumbling down in 2013 but certainly by 2015. Most likely due to a collapse in the quadrillion dollar derivatives Ponzi scheme.

    Once the financial system collapses and lines of credit and other instruments of the global market evaporate, then all hell breaks loose on the local level. When food and other supplies stop flowing in the industrialized world, that’s when things get real ugly.

    With the collapse of the financial world, the real world systems won’t be far behind. Motor fuel will stop first. Even if someone had cash or property to use for trade, with credit gone, the distributors won’t be able to buy it to distribute it.

    Electricity will follow shortly after. With no credit, suppliers won’t be able to operate for long. With electricity off, all the conveniences of modern life will disappear like so much smoke in the air.

    Once the power goes out, civic water supplies dry up. Then, it’s only a matter of days for almost anyone living in a city.

    With no power and no fuel, nuclear reactors begin to melt down.

    The timing for all this is predicated on the timing and extent of the financial system collapse. I think that’s why TPTB are scared shitless to let the banks fail.

    So many variables and so many other things that I didn’t even mention. But, that’s one way this could all unfold.

  • Does anyone think we will arrive to the point of mass- cannibalism? Afterall, rats left in a barrel will turn on themselves to survive. This is a great fear of mine.. a “cannibal apocalypse.” I read “The Road” and it scared the shit out of me…. I fear we are well underway to a similar outcome.

  • Pilot, I don’t think we will arrive at the point of mass cannibalism although I do think that some may occur towards the end. You might want to watch the movie Alive (or the book) based on the true story of people whose plane crashed in the Peruvian mountains. They finally began eating the frozen dead bodies of those who had died in the crash. It was difficult for them and they tried to make a sort of ceremony out of it. Given how hard it was for them, by the time they had decided the bodies would have been no use as food, only the fact that they were frozen made that possible. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alive:_The_Story_of_the_Andes_Survivors

    I think that because we are social creatures we have to have some level of trust that within the social unit, the tribe, people will not look at each other as food. How could humans hunt together otherwise. I believe most cannibalism in hunter-gatherer tribes where it occurs is either of the dead (to take in their spirit) or of people from other tribes that have been killed in battle.

    Imagine you are on a boat at sea and someone dies, you may all decide to eat them. But then don’t you begin to get edgy. What if your boat mates decide now to kill you when the food runs out. So if you are all edgy and afraid, when do you sleep? If you don’t sleep how can you keep rowing? It solves one problem but creates another eh?

  • I don’t think cannablism will happen except in extreme cases, however, I imagine that pets and just about all wildlife will vanish as the hunger pangs escalate (a terribly tragic thing to contemplate). For example, I hear that in North Korea, almost all birds have vanished for a similar reason. With guns and ammo galore, everything that moves will be shot and consumed.

  • Bailey, yes when I was in Haiti in Port-au-Prince there were no birds but chickens. I was told the Haitian boys brought down all the wild birds with slingshots for food.

  • “The one chart about oil’s future everyone should see
    With high oil prices and new drilling techniques unable to move the needle on worldwide crude oil production, we should ask ourselves whether it is wise to base energy policy on the fantasies of industry and government forecasters, Cobb writes.” http://tinyurl.com/d9roflm

    One look at the chart and one can see that next year or the year after begins the big slide. How collapse cannot be catastrophic when that happens I don’t know. Unfortunately it is almost certainly too late to prevent NTE – too bad for us.

  • The Mayans may not be wrong. some interpret the prognostication to mean 2012 is the beginning of the end.

  • Cannibalism is distinctly possible based on historic precedent. After the Eastern Islanders ravaged their only home, they were forced to subsist on a protein diet of human flesh. We know this because this is the pathetic condition Captain Cook discovered upon his arrival to the island.
    When the first Pacific islanders arrived to EI, they discovered a true Garden of Eden- rich volcanic soils perfect for agriculture, magnificent forests that were home to an amazing variety of endemic flora and fauna including the largest Palm tree to ever exist, and finally surrounded by an ocean teeming with seafood. What happened? Overshoot. The population exploded. At first all was well and thanks to this bountiful land sufficient spare time was available to construct the toppled ghostly stone statues that exist today. However, within some hundreds of years the land was depleted due to soil erosion and the bountiful forests were denuded literally. The last tree to be found on the island was chopped done and as a consequence the seafood protein which at this point was essential for their survival was no longer available-no trees than no wood to construct fishing canoes. You have to ask yourself what were they thinking when the last tree was cut?
    You must watch the movie, “Soylent Green” which is more relevant today than ever. I found this film the most frightening I have ever seen because I can easily envision the scenario portrayed in the movie. Also, great acting to include Edward G Robinson and C. Heston. A must see.

  • I think cannibalism is definitely going to be a become commonplace, eventually, when the world is depauperate. Check on the original true story of the Essex, that inspired Moby Dick – or go see Life of Pi.

    One sleeper problem is the fungus is going wild. It’s consuming plants, animals, amphibians and people. Some say, it’s partly due to background radiation: http://optimalprediction.com/wp/

    I am in a google group, mostly about overpopulation, and managed to effectively end one discussion about non-renewable resources with this comment:

    I realize that there are myriad ways we are in overshoot and are committing ecocide however, it’s pretty obvious to me that we are going to drown in our own shit, and soon. All you have to do to see that is one of two things – go snorkeling, or go for a walk in the woods.

    Both the oceans and the forests are dying at an astoundingly rapid rate. It’s really quite obvious if you look at trees and coral reefs, you don’t need a scientific paper to tell you – although there are many. In fact the EPA is circulating a draft to their Science Advisory Committee with an eye to tighter regulations on ozone pollution, but of course this will never be allowed and even if approved will not lower precursor emissions quickly enough to avert ecopocalypse.

    They actually have produced maps, that are behind the empirical curve, but still they unequivocally show “biomass loss” directly attributed to ozone damage. This is just a bureaucratic euphemism for the dieback of vegetation, which is in reality far, far worse because the rampant knock-off effects of opportunistic pathogens are what is proximately killing trees by the millions all over the world. When the US Environmental Prostitution Agency says even that much, you know it’s happening – and we simply cannot survive in a world where the base of the food chain (and source of oxygen) in the oceans and on land is “losing biomass”.

    I put the maps on this post (far down): https://witsendnj.blogspot.ca/2012/12/no-one-knows-where-this-will-lead_19.html

    Does any of this matter? Maybe not since even without it, thanks to amplifying feedbacks, climate change is already inexorable and unstoppable. I just still seem to harbor an anachronistic affinity for the truth.

  • In addition to growing your own foods, people would do well to acquaint themselves with all the wild plants and insects which can be eaten. I have already done so. I also grow mushrooms – and even have some pics from my blog featured on Paul Stamet’s site.
    The good news is that without electricity, we will not be aware of all the horrors and tragedy pouring in from all over the world – only that which we can see for ourselves. Not having modern medicine (and medicines) is not going to be a good thing!

  • In Soylent Green the people did not KNOW they were eating human remains. The protaganist was trying to bring this news out because he knew it would be very upsetting to people. The movie Soylent Green makes the point that people don’t want to eat other people, it horrifies them. That is not to say that in dire straights, when social mores break down, they won’t, but just to say that there is a strong aversion.

  • http://tools.themercury.com.au/stories/53876155-breaking-news.php

    TWO Russians who were lost in wilderness for four months may have been forced to eat the corpse of a companion to survive.

    A group of four men had disappeared in August on a river-fishing expedition to the vast Yakutia region in the Russian Far East, one of the most remote and inhospitable places in the world.

    Only two of the men were finally helicoptered to safety at the end of November and the discovery of fragments of a human corpse at their campsite prompted investigators to open a murder case amid rumours of cannibalism.

    The two survivors have not been arrested but are being treated as witnesses in the murder case. However it appears investigators are now certain cannibalism took place.

    “During questioning, one of the witnesses testified that cannibalism did indeed take place,” a source in the investigation told the Komsomolskaya Pranda daily on Monday.

    “It was not murder.

    “They ate the man after he died from being unable to cope with the conditions.”

    Yakutia newsite NVPress.ru also quoted local investigators as saying that the fisherman named Alexander Abdullayev confessed that he and the other survivor Alexei Gorulenko ate the corpse of Andrei Kurochkin.

    “According to Abdullayev, Kurochkin died a natural death – he froze to death – and he and Alexei Gorulenko fed themselves with his flesh for weeks,” NVPress.ru said.

    Investigators from Yakutsk, the capital of Yakutia, confirmed officially for the first time last week that they were looking at cannibalism as a possible explanation.

    The local branch of the Investigative Committee (SK) said they had flown out one of the fishermen – apparently Abdullayev – last week to look for the fourth man named as Viktor Komarov.

    They found the fishermen’s UAZ jeep – in which they had driven deep into the taiga – half submerged in a frozen river but the “corpse of the fourth fisherman was not found”.

    Rescuers had found the two survivors by the Sutam River some 250 kilometres from the nearest town of Neryungri in the south of Yakutia.

    According to Komsomolskaya Pravda they had covered some 150 kilometres on foot after the breakdown of their jeep triggered their problems.

  • More on collapse . . .

    At what point does a ship go from “taking on water” to “sinking”? When does it cross that magical line? Is it the moment the hull springs a leak or is it when the last bit of the ship goes under the water? I suspect that many would agree that a ship is sinking when the amount of water coming in is greater than the ability of the bilge pumps to move the water back out. Those on board might not notice the sinking until quite a while later depending on how quickly the water is coming in and how large the ship is.

    The industrial economy is much more complex than a ship sailing on the water, however, the analogy is a sound one and multiple comparisons can be made.

    If the most fundamental purpose of an economy is to provide basic needs to its citizens, then it’s easy to see that we’ve been collapsing for quite some time. Food (and water) is the lynchpin of any civilization – modern industrial or otherwise. Without it, no civilization can last more than a few months, no matter how “advanced” they may be. Global Food Reserves Have Reached Their Lowest Level In Almost 40 Years For six of the last eleven years the world has consumed more food than it has produced. This year, drought in the United States and elsewhere has put even more pressure on global food supplies than usual. As a result, global food reserves have reached their lowest level in almost 40 years. Experts are warning that if next summer is similar to this summer that it could be enough to trigger a major global food crisis. At this point, the world is literally living from one year to the next.

    The amount of food coming into the system has been barely sufficient to offset population growth for quite a while. However, over the last decade, as the article notes, the flood of new mouths to feed has overtaken the ability of the bilge pump of food production to offset it. There are no more bilge pumps to bring online. We are, indeed, sinking.

    As the wonderful graphic that Kathy C linked to above shows, the bottom is about to fall out of oil production. Combine that with climate change, and it’s clear that most of our bilge pumps are about to fail. We are reaching the point when our sinking is going to be noticeable even to those dancing in the ballroom.

    While a massive solar flare or nuclear war or financial collapse would certainly bring about sudden noticeable collapse, the fact is, collapse is already happening and with or without those dramatic events will continue to accelerate.

  • Friedrich Kling – “The Mayans may not be wrong. some interpret the prognostication to mean 2012 is the beginning of the end.”

    I was thinking that same thought the other day. Even though I didn’t believe that the world would suddenly end on the 21st, it does seem like 2012 was the year that the hoplessness of our situation — runaway climate change leading to near term extinction — really became apparant. Doubt the Mayans knew this. Nonetheless, the calander ending in 2012 is appropriate.

  • Bailey said: «In addition to growing your own foods, people would do well to acquaint themselves with all the wild plants and insects which can be eaten.»

    what wild plants? what insects? not considering that wild plants and insects have only fed very very small groups of humans through history, there will be very few wild plants and insects left!
    I have a friend who went for kind of a “survival in the woods” workshop a couple years ago. He told me most participants could not go through the experience because they found nothing to eat (and promptly boarded their cars to go back to their computers). Jared Diamond also said it in the middle of the jungle: «You see all this green life around me, but there is nothing to eat».

    now is december 22, 2012. I was sure (although I don’t know why) to live until this day. From now on, it is another chapter of the story.

  • On cannibalism:
    Most people have difficulty eating other species as well, if they don’t have to kill the animal themselves. i know this first hand because I have seen people unable to eat an animal that they witnessed being killed.
    Modern “industrial world” citizens are probably the least well equipped for a “less than comfortable” life.

  • Michele said: what wild plants? what insects?
    Dandelion (grows wild everywhere where I live), purslane, cactus, Japanese Knotweed, acorns, berries. Even leaves of certain bushes can be eaten – like mulberry.
    Insects: grasshopers, meal worms, locusts, cicadas, crickets, dragonflies, earth worms (yes, there is a restaurant in Croatia serving them!). Insects are a better source of protein.
    Full list – http://edibug.wordpress.com/list-of-edible-insects/

    I am not saying to exclusively eat these, but for those who know about them, there should be plenty available. Why? Because most won’t know about these food sources, AND with the cursed lawn mowers gone, millions of acres will return to vegetation and flowering – attracting insects, birds, and more.

  • Guy, you’ll get your way eventually. What are we on now, Quantitative Easing six? Those chickens are going to come home to roost sometime, and it isn’t going to be pretty when they do. Loose fiscal policy has been happily ending empires since the dawn of time.

    The environmental deal… Well I look outside and see a foot and a half of snow at 14 degrees with six more inches enroute early next week and that whole Global Warming thing sounds pretty nice about now. Bring on the long pig as long as it’s warm.

    Just keep biding your time and staying ready. And hey, look on the bright side: there was no asteroid, nobody shooting at you, and no zombies. Well…. Zombies might have been kinda fun.

    And what happened to Frank? I haven’t seen the Ol’ Coot in a while now.

  • Turbo we haven’t seen you in a long time either. Guess you have been lurking or you wouldn’t know Frank is missing. Let me further guess, Frank will shortly re-appear. You two seem tied at the computer terminal.

  • There was a person who was a guesser
    Whose certainty grew lesser and lesser
    It then grew so small
    It became nothing at all
    And he became a college professor

  • If the temp. in Siberia is -60F for a high, what is the low? Try to explain to your neighbor how that proves global warming!

    Seems that the data and reports from the Artic are coming forth.

    https://arctic-news.blogspot.ca/

  • Seated at a table, a customer looks at the menu in a cannibal restaurant:

    Fried missionary ……………….$ 25.00
    Roasted explorer ……………..$ 35.00
    Baked politician ………………..$100.00

    He asks the waiter “Why so much for the politician?”
    Waiter: “Have you ever tried to clean a politician?”

  • Dave, I have been looking at that story about Sandy Hook since so many of the recent mass murders seem suspicious. So a few days ago when it was cold and I had some time I looked back at Columbine and found there are big questions there as well. Some years after 911 I looked back at Oklahoma City too. And also at the war in Kosovo. It seems I was asleep….

  • I put that story on my blog in the 21st, there’s been an update since.

    http://www.monsangelorum.net/?topic=deadly-serious-2&paged=5#post-6271

  • I think we as a group have come to the conclusion that people will believe what they like to believe…about anything. I suppose the gov. knows this as well. Maybe we are among the last to accept this as a truth.

  • My conundrum is that I don’t trust government, but I also don’t trust 99% of anti-government. I see some form of umbrella government as a necessity in a globally connected, severely overpopulated planet. Tearing down government is not going to be the answer, because it is only a symptom.

  • Most Americans believe there’s an enemy called Al Qaeda, don’t they ?

    https://youtu.be/cHAwbYpRGkQ

  • Ulvfugl, thanks for the update. Something to do while waiting for collapse

    Bailey, whether or not we have an umbrella gov’t is not about what we want, think is best, etc. It is about whether or not that gov’t can stay in power. Civilizations crash. This one is a global one, but that doesn’t mean it can’t crash, it means that when it does it will be huge, horrific, and final. No one here I think wants the chaos that follows, but they also know that every day it continues puts more nails in the coffin of our species and most others on the planet. Some think the coffin is nailed shut already and all that is left is to play taps.

    Homo sapiens, some agree
    From its future cannot flee
    Its far too late
    To avoid its fate
    Homo sapiens, RIP

  • An umbrella government will have to secure enough resources to maintain the ribs and the fabric of the umbrella.

  • I am with you guys (and gals). I only wish that collapse had happened about 2 decades ago. In retrospect, I also wish we had never discovered the usefulness of fossil fuels (since the energy and products thereof is what what has led to Empire and it’s governments).

  • I believe that the unraveling of the Amerikun economy will begin with a precipitous rise in food prices due to continuing droughts in the grain belt (and perhaps a spike in oil prices caused by a future conflict with Iran). The Amerikun economy is held together by retail sales … those who can’t afford Macy’s go to the People’s Republic of China’s distribution arm, Walmart. Once the disposable income is gone, the situation will quickly deteriorate as more and more people lose their jobs and their homes.

    TPTB have been preparing for this inevitability. Sandy Hook is just the latest false flag production. I don’t think its main focus was guns. They are going to use Sandy Hook to demonize anyone who questions the sustainability of the Matrix. Armed or not, if you don’t believe that sports and endless consumption are the highpoint of human existence, then you’re probably a dangerous “survivalist” like Lanza’s mother.

  • One more thought.

    Then kind of collapse which causes the global economy and national security states to fold will not occur anytime soon, IMHO. What will collapse in the coming years (and which is already in a state of collapse) is the middle class lifestyle of the industrial north. A police state has been prepared to replace the sheeple’s paradise of consumption. If they can’t buy you off, then they will put a gun to your head, kick you in the ass and throw you in a gulag if you don’t play along. In Amerika it will be totalitarianism with a Coke and a smile.

    A police state can operate in a collapsed economy, e.g. North Korea and Cuba.

  • A police state can operate in a collapsed economy

    Random acts of terror, the Spartan strategy, death squads, to keep the helots freaked out and subdued, has often been used by USA, against the populations of several south and central american states, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, etc, Argentina, Chile, also Philippines,( that terror campaign is part of Obama’s background) but not domestically, (unless you count against the black slave population and indigenous indian population), but perhaps that’s what’s coming, divide and rule, as the appalling Jay Gould said, ‘I can hire one half of the working class to kill the other half’, pretty neat way for the one percent to reduce the population, I mean, they don’t care which half ‘wins’, so long as they are busy fighting each other and the elite are safe in their offshore havens… so maybe, if these weird shooting horrors, if they are as sinister as suggested, are a way to crank up the pressure… ?

  • I suppose that to make sense of imperialism, the sort of madness that we see going on in the world, you have to think like a psychopath, which is hard for decent folk to do, I mean, Henry VIII, who killed off his wives, writes, it seems quite casually… “…you must cause such dreadful execution upon a good number of inhabitants, hanging them on trees, quartering them, and setting their heads and quarters in every town, as shall be a fearful warning…”

    This is terror, as a tool, to control people, through fear. That was 500 years ago, but really, things are not so very much different. Psychopathology and the lust for power is the same, and people’s response to seeing people slaughtered is the same.

    http://earlymodernengland.com/2012/12/mother-shipton-and-the-end-of-the-world/

  • .
    From insight obtained huffing glue,
    My end would come someday, I knew,
    But I didn’t expect
    I’d belong to a sect
    Which thought everyone else would die too.

  • BtD – a diamond among pearls!

  • Arnie Gundersen update on Fort Calhoun and San Onofre power plant status – summary – not very good
    podcast at http://fairewinds.org/content/nrc-fails-enforce-its-own-regulation
    The Fort Calhoun stuff is bad enough, the San Onofre starts at 12:25 and well if it goes it could well bring down the economy.

    As for a police state in a failed economy, depends what you mean by failed economy or what causes it to fail. A grid collapse would mean the police couldn’t pump gas for their cars, there would be no more bullets made, cities and many rural areas would quickly run out of food, etc. I think when we are talking about failed enough to reduce carbon output we are not talking North Korea type failed, we are talking END of INDUSTRIAL CIVILIZATION. The factories stop spewing CO2, the cars don’t run, etc.

  • “…At one end of the spectrum are the Guy McPhersons, who believe we have triggered irreversible positive feedback mechanisms that cannot be stopped, and we have another generation or two left as a civilization. At the other end of the spectrum are those who either ‘deny’ the scientific projections altogether, or who downplay the immediacy and suggest there is time to effect an orderly transition to a renewables economy….

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/12/unforced-variations-dec-2012/comment-page-6/#comment-310601

  • What does this mean, NTE?
    Well, since you’re an addressee:
    It’s inopportune
    That we’re going to die soon,
    But that’s how it’s going to be.

  • Kathy C Said:

    Turbo we haven’t seen you in a long time either. Guess you have been lurking or you wouldn’t know Frank is missing. Let me further guess, Frank will shortly re-appear. You two seem tied at the computer terminal.

    I’ve occasionally lurked. Been busy crossing the globe a couple times. Bucharest is particularly beautiful and if you’re into that whole Vampire Lore thing, it is technically Transylvania, it’s right up your alley. Good food too.

    I was just wondering where the only other guy from the olden days on the old site was. We’d have fun throwing good natured jibes at each other.

    I haven’t seen Stan around in quite a while either. 🙁

  • “I was just wondering where the only other guy from the olden days on the old site was. We’d have fun throwing good natured jibes at each other.

    I haven’t seen Stan around in quite a while either.”

    Nor Victor.

  • Random acts of terror ……….has often been used by USA ……….but not domestically?/i>

    Oklahoma City and 9-11?

  • @Gail

    I thought of you this morning when I awoke from the most horrible nightmare, in which I looked out the kitchen window to find that the big, beautiful blue spruce in our back yard, the only healthy tree in the neighborhood, which is home to a multitude of birds, under which the children play and deer used to take shelter during heavy rains prior to last summer’s drought, well, someone had chopped it down. I was in such a panic and was so relieved to see it was still there when I ran to look. I really love that tree and always wonder why it seems to do so well when all the other trees around here are so sick. Maybe I will give it a hug tomorrow before I visit your blog for a good cry.

  • By “failed economy” I’m referring to the notion that collapse comes at the tail end of a pernicious cycle of decline and rot. Yes, eventually the grid itself will cease to function, but before the security state systems arrive at that terminal stage, they will burn all the oil and coal they can get their hands on to keep the state apparatus running. IMO, the consumerist crack binge will end for the masses long before total collapse.

    The gulf between the end of the golden age of consumption and grid collapse will be filled by totalitarian societies of meager subsistence for the former middle class. I say this because capitalism does not work in reverse. When the capitalist system was growing, the principal beneficiaries of the system built nice partially democratic/plutocratic societies at the expense of nonwhites and the environment. Capitalist contraction inevitably leads to fascism. And as anyone can see, we in the West are well on our way to becoming fascist security states.

    Already, there is estimated to be over 500,000 surveillance cameras in use in London alone. It is said that the average Londoner is photographed 500 times a day. And with over 4 million surveillance cameras in use throughout the UK, this amounts to nearly 1 camera for every 14 British citizens.

  • A bit off topic…

    I had a work colleague friend who was an Architect and he collected corporations’ slogans.
    He used to say their true agendas were always there in plain sight.
    The one I remember best is for Unilever, who make kitchen detergent, bathtub bars of soap, and laundry detergent:

    “Power At An Affordable Price”

    One recent headline from hurricasne Sandy also seems to fit the same mold:

    “New Yorkers Lose Power”

    I do a lot of walking in preparation for a walk around this Great Southern Land, and there is a sign about 5 km from my house, which I must have walked past and read over a thousand times in the last three to four years.

    It only hit me yesterday as I got up at 4am and did my Sunday 3 hours up the mountain to Bell Railway station, a relatively uninhabited area, so there is plenty of quiet time to meditate, and hear the birds call as the light approaches. It is now my motto for my future journey walking anywhere, but also walking around Australia:

    “Keep Left Unless Overtaking”

    Can anyone beat that?

    If anyone is not getting them, give it a little time and repeat the phrase over and over, until your verbal mind reaches alternative meanins for the combnation of words.

    The irony….

    ‘Icehouse – Great Southern Land.’

    What a land, and IMO if humanity has a small chance these Aborigines will get their land back…. finally.

  • Depressive, yes we will have ever increasing police state until the grid fails, BUT that is probably not far away

    Since the early 1990s, according to data gathered by Massoud Amin, an electrical engineering professor at the University of Minnesota, the number of power outages affecting more than 50,000 people a year has more than doubled, and blackouts now drain between $80 billion and $188 billion from the U.S. economy every year. The power grid is slipping backwards to a time when infrastructure was unreliable, and more and more people are talking about going “off the grid” with solar, batteries, and generators as a result. Will this doom the greater grid, and by extension the greater good?
    It’s not easy to keep 450,000 miles of high voltage lines up and humming. But the situation has gotten worse over the years because the U.S. has increased the load on its lines while investing less in the system
    http://www.psmag.com/environment/electric-forecast-call-for-increasing-blackouts-43395/

    The number of outages as more than doubled in the last 20 years. The stress on the system from overuse as temps rise will increase. The damage to the system from storms will increase. And our congress allocates funds to highways and bridges. Increasing blackouts was what Richard Duncan of Olduvai theory fame said would happen as we headed back down the stone age.

  • The scientists get surprised by actual facts on the ground once again

    West Antarctica has warmed much more than scientists had thought over the last half century, new research suggests, an ominous finding given that the huge ice sheet there may be vulnerable to long-term collapse, with potentially drastic effects on sea levels.
    A paper released Sunday by the journal Nature Geoscience reports that the temperature at a research station in the middle of West Antarctica has warmed by 4.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1958. That is roughly twice as much as scientists previously thought and three times the overall rate of global warming, making central West Antarctica one of the fastest-warming regions on earth.

    “The surprises keep coming,” said Andrew J. Monaghan, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., who took part in the study. “When you see this type of warming, I think it’s alarming.”
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/24/science/earth/west-antarctica-warming-faster-than-thought-study-finds.html?_r=0

    It will be interesting for the “its not as bad as Guy says” crowd to comment on this

  • Why is Guy’s story hard to sell? We are addicted. Oil is worth about $140,000 a barrel and more. This isn’t new, just a reminder.

    http://www.doomsteaddiner.org/blog/2012/12/22/energy-part-i/

  • Robin : Oklahoma City and 9-11?

    I suppose you could include those events to support the thesis I outlined, but I didn’t include them, because, (disregarding who actually really did them and for what reason), the majority believe the mainstream version, McVeigh and A Q, so the majority don’t see the terror as coming from their own elite class, do they, whereas the southern blacks knew who was lynching them ( easy to google for that ! ) and the victims of terror in El Salvador, Nicaragua, Argentina, Philippines, etc, knew who was inflicting it upon them, just as the Palestinians know who oppresses them and the Pakistanis know who blows them up with drones, there’s no attempt at false flag concealment. If it becomes clear that random acts of terror are committed against American public, and the ‘authorities’ don’t even bother to try and invent cover stories, then we’re into something new and terrible indeed…

    I see it a bit like the situation in 1930s, when jews got beaten or murdered, and the authorities publicly blamed ‘gangs of thugs’, but went to no great trouble to investigate or punish any ‘thugs’, and secretly, covertly, were organising and supporting the ‘thugs’. The next stage is when the ‘thugs’ start wearing official uniforms and become immune to prosecution.

    There is that grim anecdote (in my memory, may not be exact) of a man being ordered at gun point to the death camps, who recognizes the officer as his best friend from schooldays, and the officer just shrugs ‘I was unemployed for five years’. The people who create the money out of thin air can always pay the hungry to obey orders and do their dirty work…

  • ulvfugl the link doesn’t work

  • 1:34 ‘possible ..two occupants with ski masks..’

    An anomaly that doesn’t fit the story… ?

  • from KathyC’s link which says: “The number of outages as more than doubled in the last 20 years.”

    “…the majority of power outages in the U.S. are caused by weather, in particular storms blowing trees on the lines…”

    Exactly so. Welcome to my waking nightmare: the reason the power outages have doubled is that trees are falling on the lines. The reason the trees are falling isn’t storms – we have always had storms. The storms are getting worse, but not yet twice as bad, twice as often. The trees are falling because they are dying. It’s Christmas Eve, and they’re still dying. Sigh.

  • Gail, yes the trees falling, and often very large trees. But after they fall you have to replace wires and that takes humans – yet at at time when outages are more frequent the skilled people who go out in bad weather so we can turn on our lights are aging and often not being replaced. I presume because for the short term that makes for more profit….

    Human resource managers at utilities are very concerned about the
    looming shortage of workers within the industry. Work Force Aging
    and Turnover in the U.S. Electric Power Industry, Preserving
    Legacies of Knowledge by Michael Ashworth (2005) shows a study in
    which several top tier human resource executives were asked about
    their current problems in staffing the electrical industry. The biggest
    obstacle for these utility human resource officers was the aging work
    force with 71% of them ranking this the number one issue. Fiftyseven
    percent of the surveyed managers reported that the average age
    of their utility operations employees were between 47 and 49 years
    old. The ageing workforce was not the only concern expressed by
    these utilities. The employment levels within the industry have
    dropped 23.7% since the early 1990’s while the output of the industry
    has increased by 30%.

    http://www.dora.state.co.us/puc/docketsdecisions/DocketFilings/08I-227E/08I-227E_TaskForceEI-WorkersShortage01-28-09CIM.pdf

    It is all part of the whole and because there are ever more connections when it collapses it will collapse big time IMO.

  • Well, maybe, let’s say, a proposed plot for a fictional tv drama, like a crime family that goes back a long way, that included a couple of presidents, made enormous money out of the LIBOR scandal, and a tax guy working for GE knew something, and was getting bit bold, bit unreliable, and didn’t take a hint, so his wife and kid got blown away, as a warning, to him and all the others… along with a whole lot of other kids, to make a smokescreen for the media to build on, so nobody would see the real reason…. but I don’t find it convincing that the one 20 year old could kill so efficiently in that short time, so many anomalies, just doesn’t add up… but there’s other possible fictional tv dramas floating in my head… maybe someone will dig up some clues… Thing is, ever since JFK, Jim Jones, Waco, OK City, etc, etc, the MSM churn out a story line and keep plugging it, but if you dig, even just a little, you hit all this crazy stuff that says that story can’t be right… and the weirdness remains…

  • That theory derives something from what I read about Mexican drug cartels. How does a boss ensure his authority and security, in such a hostile and violent environment ? It helps to have lots of brothers, cousins, nephews, a clan, in the business, who you can more or less trust and rely on, but they don’t want to be ’employees’, so how do you ensure that your own bodyguards don’t betray you ? Well, you pay them the right amount, not too much, not too little. if it’s too little, the other drug gang might tempt them with more. But the main leverage is to know their loved ones. They need to know, that if they misbehave, it’s their wife, mistress, girlfriend, mother, children, that will pay the price.
    So, every now and then, if an employee strays, you make an example, so all others will see what happens…. and that you, the boss of bosses, can do this outrage in plain sight of the whole world, and get away with it, because you have the power, and nobody can stop you….

  • ulvfugl, you make an excellent point about the invisibility (to the masses) of the true oppressors. 9/11, and now Sandy Hook, are sacred events that have been imprinted on the culture such that anyone who questions the official narrative is a heretic and/or mentally ill. This is why political resistance from the left is a nostalgic joke. After the Kennedy assassination, Amerika came under new management by a sinister criminal elite and they have been running the show from behind the curtains ever since.

    You cannot bring about social change through any of the normal means of passive resistance when the enemy is a technologically sophisticated criminal army masquerading as the government. The so called left, right and middle are now controlled by the same dark powers who orchestrate the opera of pseudo-democracy to keep the zombified voting class in check and distracted. Political agitation has become just one more media spectacle which, at best, results in cosmetic changes on the society’s mental screen. Collapse is the only hope for any structural change to come about. Of course, by the time the Matrix collapses it will probably take the biosphere with it.

  • Thanks, depressive.
    Kinda pertinent to that is this story, although I agree with you, there are even blacker forces hiding in the background…

    …the story reveals the charade of that electoral game, one in which powerful corporate elites manipulate the system through money and the media they own to restrict voters’ choice to two almost-identical candidates. Those candidates hold the same views on 80 per cent of the issues. Even where their policies differ, most of the differences are quickly ironed out behind the scenes by the power elites through the pressure they exert on the White House via lobby groups, the media and Wall Street.

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/12/21/why-the-washington-post-killed-the-story-of-murdochs-bid-to-buy-the-us-presidency/print

  • still 25 000 houses without power in the province of québec since Friday because of a “storm”… (from 100 000 last Friday). This is 100 000 homes, not people. An employee from the utility said on tevee: «In the wooded areas, it looks like the ice storm of 1998».

    But there was just a quite ordinary winter bout with quite normal winter winds, that would never have brought down so many trees if they were not so sick. And (my guess) the grid must get weaker from those thousands of piecing up the system.

    and from the article at the beginning of this thread, WOW!, what a boy’s club!:
    James Howard Kunstler, Niall Ferguson, Michael Ruppert, “Rice Farmer,” Karl Denninger, Rob Viglione, Gerald Celente, Jeff Rubin, Matt Savinar, Catherine Austin Fitts, Max Keiser , Jim Willie, Graham Summers, Charles Munger, Gonzalo Lira, Peter Schiff, John P. Hussman, Doug Casey, Jan Lundberg, Chris Hedges, Michael Snyder, Kenneth Deffeyes, Matt Simmons (deceased), Bill Bonner, Paul Craig Roberts, Marc Faber, James Wesley Rawles, Tony Robbins, Nouriel Roubini, “Tyler Durden” (the collection of analysts and writers at Zero Hedge), James Kwak, Simon Johnson, Chris Clugston, John Taylor, Bob Janjuah, Samsam Bakhtiari, Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy, Bob Chapman, George Ure, Anthony Fry, Igor Panarin, Mac Slavo, G. Edward Griffin, Joseph Meyer, Harry Dent, Lindsey Williams, Richard Russell, Harley Bassman, Niño Becerra, Martin Weiss, Stephanie Jasky, Eric deCarbonnel, Richard Mogey, Robin Landry, Robert Prechter, Pamela and Mary Anne Aden, Paul Farrell, Nassim Taleb, Gilbert Mercier, Chris Duane, John Williams, Hugh Hendry, Arthur Laffer, Daryll Robert Schoon, Jeff Gundlach, Byron King, Simon Black, Albert Bates, Gordon T. Long, Clyde Prestowitz, Bill Deagle, John Lohman, Alessio Rastani, Mark Grant, Ann Barnhardt , Christopher Greene, George Soros, Bill Clinton, and Willem Buiter.
    No comments.

  • ulvfugl said:

    “but I don’t find it convincing that the one 20 year old could kill so efficiently in that short time, so many anomalies, just doesn’t add up…”

    Kids in a crowded classroom will tend to gather up for protection allowing that piece of cowardly trash to murder them. .223 bullets at close range tend to overpenetrate, i.e. go through, and strike things behind them. In this case, the kids classmates. At approximately 4 centimeters, the bullet begins to yaw and at twelve to sixteen is traveling base first.

    Little kids are maybe six to eight inches front to back. If he unloaded a thirty round magazines into those kids, it becomes easy in the extreme to see that he was actually inefficient. Many of the children were hit five or more times from projectiles that had already passed through their classmates. Your attribution of this tragedy to outside conspiracies does not factor in Occam’s Razor.

    Twenty kids in one class in today’s overcrowded public indoctrination centers is normal. My High School, Minneapolis South, had a graduating class of 600 housed in a building that was only designed to accommodate 1000.

    It’s about time we put a full time police officer or two in every school.

  • If you say so, Turboguy, I can’t be bothered to argue with you, there’s plenty of other forums where you can find people who will tell you that you are wrong.

  • Among all the doom and gloom, I think it is nice to remind ourselves how fascinating life and nature is (which is something Guy points out). There are so many corrective forces in nature, and though they may not be of the potency to avert our assault in the short term, there do seem to be self corrective mechanisms hard at work. Corals are known to emit chemicals during excessive heat and sun which can form cloud structure (both to shade and even bring rain). They can also attract herbivorous fish when vegetation threatens.

    There are hundreds of such examples in nature, and some even subscribe to the Gaia hypothesis and feel that the earth itself is an interconnected organism. I don’t personally know how far to take such theories, but in light of this article, wouldn’t it be something if Yellowstone responded to global warming (of course, most of us could kiss our asses goodbye)..

    When the Ice Melts, the Earth Spews Fire
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/121219133551.htm

  • ..This was the take away message from that article I found to be interesting..

    “They found it with the help of geological computer models. “In times of global warming, the glaciers are melting on the continents relatively quickly. At the same time the sea level rises. The weight on the continents decreases, while the weight on the oceanic tectonic plates increases. Thus, the stress changes within in the Earth to open more routes for ascending magma” says Dr Jegen.”

  • With the holidays bearing down I have alot of alternative Christmas Carols floating through my head. Reading all of BtD’s limericks inspired me to spread some “holiday cheer”!

    THE CLIMATE SONG
    (Sung to the tune of THE CHRISTMAS SONG/CHESTNUTS ROASTING)

    Creatures roasting in the wildfires
    Jack Frost brings ten feet of snow
    High tide carols being sung on the coasts
    And folks with now where left to go

    Everybody knows a temperature rise of six degrees
    Will not make the future bright
    The tiny tots being born everyday
    Will find it hard to live theirs lives

    They don’t know 4c’s on its way
    With more misery and suffering every day
    And with the feedback loops,they soon will find
    That 6c isn’t far behind

    And so I’m offering this simple phrase
    To kids from one to ninety-two
    Although it’s been said
    Many times,many ways
    With Climate Chaos
    We’re screwed!!

    WHAT CHILD IS THIS
    (Sung to the tune of WHAT CHILD IS THIS)

    What child is this who lays to waste the Earth
    And all her species?
    Whose coming brings the end of things
    All life,all beauty ceasing

    This,this is humanity
    Growing exponentially
    Greed,greed
    The selfish seed
    The Earth,the Mother weeping

  • thestormcrow – thanks for the carols. Well done.

  • thestormcrow, now those are some carols that don’t feel as jarring as the standard ones. Thanks.

  • Came across this interview with Kevin Tucker, who was waiting for civilisation to collapse in 2006… interesting to compare, what thinking has changed and what hasn’t, since then.

    http://www.pghcitypaper.com/pittsburgh/wild-times-ahead/Content?oid=1337295

  • Just yesterday, some climate denier told me atmospheric methane concentrations had stopped rising. I thought “surely that’s wrong, Guy told me so…”

    So I googled images (for graphs) of methane concentrations, and lo and behold, it’s TRUE. So how can this be if so much CH4 is escaping from the permafrost?

    http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/Atmosphere/images/methane_atmosph_concentr_1984_2004_big.gif

  • That graph goes to 2005 ? It’s 2012 ?

  • @ Mike

    Assuming you actually are interested in methane levels, your graph is a little outdated. Methane levels didn’t start to spike until only a few years ago…..But, whatever you do, don’t take Guy’s word for it, all the information you could ever want is right at your finger tips.

    http://www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?ID=7624&Method=Full

    http://www.csiro.au/news/GlobalMethaneRising.html

    http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080423_methane.html

  • David Benson, on Real Climate, pointed out that during the Eemian, comparable to present, with slightly higher temperatures, there does not seem to have been a tremendous release of methane… so I wonder if that is correct, and if anyone knows any explanation or technical details about the differences between then and now ?

    http://www.eoearth.org/article/Eemian