What can small countries do about climate change and peak oil?

by Godofredo Aravena

I live in Chile, a very nice country, with a reasonable standard of living (equivalent to about $15,000 per capita per year). The country is rich in natural resources and potential renewable energy and is characterized by abundance and a good climate (so far). Can I ask for more? I do not envy anybody in other parts of the world.

A few years ago I became worried about peak oil, climate change, and in general about the human footprint in the world. I was concerned about garbage (plastics mainly), and the results of consumption in general. I have tried to pay attention to my footprint in this world, thinking about my children, and their children, and so on.

But, what can we do as country, in my country, about these global problems? The scale of the problem is so enormous, in relation to our part in the problem (origin and current contribution), that despair fills me.

We can keep on living as today, and it will not make any difference. The same notion applies for many other countries around the world.

I have prepared a table (Table 1 embedded below), that includes about 60% of current population in the world, and about 80% of oil consumption, to provide some reference numbers about the situation. Most of the figures are taken from Wikipedia.

In Chile, we are less than 0.5% of the problem. Our whole country has no significance at all. The more we add countries to the table, the less significant we become.

We generate less carbon dioxide than the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area. We have fewer cars than that city.

If we consider per capita responsibility, we are still below average. As can be seen, even if we all die in Chile, there´s no significant impact in the world´s trends.

So my conclusion is that a large part of this world, including a big part of Latin
American countries (leaving out Mexico and Brazil), and most of the African countries, and some from Asia, have virtually nothing to do with the problem. We have contributed little to development of the problems in the past, and will contribute little to the problem in the future. Similarly, we have little potential to contribute to a solution.

Countries bigger or richer than Chile must change their way of living, or reduce population, or both. We have to sit and just watch. No matter what we do, it will have no measurable impact. But still we do something, and we will keep on doing something, even though I can clearly see that it will be absolutely useless.

My point is, whatever is to be done, has to be done by China, India, Russia, Japan, United States and Europe. Taking a generous view, we can add Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Canada and Saudi Arabia to the bunch.

Looking back, it is clear that atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the consumption of fossil fuels stem from economically developed countries in pursuit of a high standard of living for their people. There is little or no concern for the rest of the world and the future.

Using the same logic, we can hardly blame China and India today for their part in the today’s situation. The industrial revolution began in 1850, and India and China became important in the world’s industrial economy no more than 20 years ago with respect to oil consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.

My final conclusion is that this problem has no solution beyond the collapse of the industrial economy in the United States and Europe. China and India will stop growing without consumers from the United States and Europe. The internal growth of these two countries will take a long time to reach a size problematic to the rest of the world in the absence of the United States and Europe.

Table embedded here


Godofredo Aravena is a 52-year-old ship designer who spent 15 years working in the most important shipyard in Chile to become head of the Naval Architecture Section. He worked nine years as an independent naval architect, with a small office in Concepción, Chile. He and his wife have two daughters and a granddaughter.


Somewhere in New Mexico Before the End of Time: a review by Kevin Moore

To quote Robert Newman, British social commentator and comedian: where do you begin? For Robert Newman, 1609 was a good place to begin because that was when the Sea Venture sailed westward across the Atlantic with a cargo of “troublemakers” to repopulate the failing colony at Jamestown. Four hundred years later Mike Sosebee made a film which documents some of the destruction that Industrial Civilisation has wreaked upon the Earth, to a large extent as a consequence of the “success” of Jamestown, and the subsequent colonisation and industrialisation of the land mass that eventually came to be known as the United States.

Somewhere in New Mexico Before the End of Time tells two narratives at once; one narrative portrays some of the insanity of Industrial Civilisation and the culture of empire and consumerism which are in the process of rendering the Earth largely, or perhaps completely, uninhabitable for humans and other large mammals in a matter of a few decades as a consequence of escalating pollution and conversion of the natural world into stuff; the other narrative depicts the efforts of emeritus professor Guy McPherson to challenge the culture of empire and consumerism, and lead by example towards more sustainable ways of living.

In this film, Mike focuses attention on a man who was so disgusted by what he saw Industrial Civilisation doing to the living planet, and could no longer be a part of it, he quit his secure and well-paid employment “at the pinnacle of empire” to attempt to live a more normal way of life. The decision to leave the pinnacle of empire is described as “walking away from empire” and “going back to the land.” (Guy admitted that prior to locating to the thermally efficient straw bale house, referred to as “the mud hut,” his practical skills were severely limited; why would a successful university professor need to know how to use a screwdriver or a hammer? Why would a professor need to know how to grow vegetables, to keep bees or to milk a goat?)

The response of the viewer will undoubtedly depend on the previous exposure to the concept of real sustainability and their knowledge of how the Earth works as a complex physical-chemical-biological system; those with little knowledge or understanding may well dismiss Guy’s efforts to bring the crucial issues of our times to the fore as misguided silliness; those who have known Guy for many years and have taken an interest in the progression of western society “towards, and eventually off the cliff” are treated to behind-the-scenes revelations that demonstrate the determination of those in power to drive us all “off the cliff,” and know that to take a stand against looting and polluting incurs high personal costs.

No intelligent, caring, connected person can view this film without being deeply moved, and probably deeply saddened that the real heroes in western societies are largely ignored.

And I am certain that very soon a large number of people who are presently caught in the web of deceit that Industrial Empire spins are going to discover that they too will need to know how to grow vegetables, or keep bees or milk a goat.

Somewhere in New Mexico Before the End of Time may be the eye-opener that points them in the right direction.

Thank you Mike and all those who supported you.

Comments 227

  • The same goes for you TRDH, glad to see you’re still here. A few of you keep me coming back, if only to see how NTE is playing out in the live of those who have fully accepted it.

  • Judy – Thanks for the recommendation on Salt Spring Island.
    Jaywfitz – Hawaii, maybe.
    RDH – Don’t worry about fantasies of Hollywood Apocalypse. The people that study Greer, Orlov, McPherson, and Heinberg’s are immune to this. I don’t mind dying. It’s my daughters and their offspring that I am sacrificing for. I have ideas and others more qualified might make sure that at least a few thousand humans survive as long as the rats do.

  • Ya know, reading all of this, in my jungle abode. Thinking about it, went out side with a stale bag of pretzels, ’cause, why not. Two rottweilers, both rescues, I’m not so much into dogs, but here they are, because people breed them and then throw them out of cars here. . .so there they are, and about a dozen buffy hens. In fact, the rotts and the hens coexist, and eat out of my hand without undue trouble. Of course they’ve all been trained to do so. . .is there as big a bridge in human beings with each other as with dogs and chickens?!?!–but they’re able to learn. Here, I find utter refusal to learn– people are using data to reverse engineer the entitlement that they wanted from the start, especially the entitlement to be apathetic, and well, that’s despicable.

    Look, what you’all gots to learn. . . You’re not going to be judged by your peers. You’re not going to be judged by me. I could, and probably do so, go on a wholesale tirade, but you don’t have any reason to care. Look: You are going to be judged by your kids. They will hate you. This matters. Think on that good and hard. A lot of you have had your cake, and eaten a dozen of them too, and you’re here as some kind of confessional. This isn’t church, really, nor a cult. The people who, a decade or two removed, are going to ask for justice are going to be far, far, far, less rational about it, than the hardest ass of hard asses here. You’re going to have to come up with cracker jack excuses–Think on it. It’s going to matter.

    Maybe it’s worthy to talk about the real issues. Maybe it’s worthwhile to have a spine, and take a stand– I mean one that matters.

    A lot of this is just nonsense. I can’t relate. Wester? Sure, right on, but if you’ve job working for somebody your revolutionary status is just horsshite. I mean really, a lot of internet revolutionary action here.

    I”m here to tell you from practical experience that if you adopt a vocal, authentic, quantifiable stance against the depravity of the future there’s real hell to be paid. The only reward is the validation of the assassination that you’ll be gifted with, currently mostly by degradation of character, or whatever, eventually it comes from a drone up yer butt. Still, As far as I can see, being vocal currently is a deterrent, because as snuffing you goes, well, it’s too conspicuous. A couple years out, things will be less elegant.

    And with a deep deep deep breath: aloha.

  • On our continuing theme of protests this summer, this from


    dated 17 June

    Protesters massed in at least seven Brazilian cities Monday for another round of demonstrations … Authorities had hoped to avoid the sort of bloody confrontations that shocked Sao Paulo last week … set off last week by anger over a 10-cent hike in public transport fares, but protesters have moved beyond that issue to tap into widespread frustration in Brazil over a heavy tax burden, politicians widely viewed as corrupt and woeful public education, health and transport systems … Tens of thousands of people turned out for a peaceful protest in Sao Paulo … Belo Horizonte, police estimated about 20,000 people … Protests also were reported in Curitiba, Belem and Salvador.

  • Things in Brazil seem to have moved on since that report, the people took over the National Congress building, if that is the correct term, and now it seems, just as in Turkey, youtube videos are being blocked and internet reports out of Brazil suddenly stop.


  • @ The REAL Dr. House
    If we had found a way to control our population, we would have ended up like Dodo birds. We are here due to the forces of biological variation and selection (unless we accept creation as our source). Come to think of it, the industrial civilization we have has practically eliminated selection and we have become as dumb as Dodo birds. We could say that the people in some other countries who came to the party a little later are less dumbed down, such as Turkey and Brazil. We can’t blame all of our dumbness on the government and TV. Unfortunately, humans aren’t exempt from the rules of nature and selection is one of the rules. No species of any kind does family planning. Selection is one way nature sustains us…and we don’t like it that way.

  • Is humanity good or bad?

    If a burglar enters a room where a baby is looking, and takes the valuables, the baby does not see a burglar. There is no thief inside the baby, so the baby does not see a thief outside.

    We all have internalised templates against which we compare people we meet and events we experience. These templates can represent both good and bad. The templates we first reach for correspond to our own characters. That is why some of us see the good everywhere and in every person, and some of us don’t. Some have a large stack of good templates that they reach for first, and few or none of the other kind, while others amongst us are different.

    It affects our attitude to others, to the world, to ourselves, and to life in general.

    It is possible but not easy to discard the negative templates and collect positive ones, but it is not easy to do so. There is a “gullible” template in many persons’ collections that can make it quite difficult to do so.

  • @ TRDH:

    I agree, Ripley and B9K9 are dreaming.

    As Tom says:
    We’ve gone over the fact that it’s too late anyway here, that due to climate change, especially with looming Arctic sea ice loss, it will become increasingly harder to grow food, storms will cause more destruction, disease and environmental loss is growing while politically and socially our lives are becoming more restricted and controlled by the police state we live in.

    It seems they think they can profit from the collapse and ride the train over the cliff in luxury.

    The protests in Turkey, Chile, Brazil, etc. will continue to grow and spread world wide. The bad news is this will create the “us vs them” scenario that the police state wishes to have! They will say: “The mob is a threat to peace and stability, we will squash them for the sake of the people.” And, badder still, the majority of the population will sit in their homes and watch it on tv, not lifting a finger.

    Corporate owners, directors and officers
    Govt employees
    people on govt assistance that need the govt to stay in power

    everyone else, the average work-a-day, tax paying, stiff.

    The Bad Guys far outnumber the good guys. Sorry.

  • Les McCann & Eddie Harris – Compared To What (1971)

    Favorite quote of the day:
    Snowden: ‘Being called a traitor by Dick Cheney is the highest honor you can give an American’

  • @jaywfitz the rotts and the hens coexist, and eat out of my hand without undue trouble. Of course they’ve all been trained to do so. . .is there as big a bridge in human beings with each other as with dogs and chickens?!?!–but they’re able to learn.

    hahahahahaha WRONG!!!! As soon as you can’t feed them and those dogs get hungry, chicken will be on the menu. You can’t ‘unlearn’ nature, only attempt to subdue it for a time.

    @Kathy Cassandra I encourage you to write that article for xraymike! You have already done the research, and a comprehensive gathering of the information is definitely needed. Your voice is clear and no-nonsense in regards to presentation of the facts and the implications of nuclear in light of collapse. No pressure, but I think you can write an authoritative piece that is sorely needed to cut through some of the delusion.

  • yes, there is no longer any natural selection in humans – everyone lives – the weak, the stupid, the infirm.

    Like the little girl with CF that got the lung transplant after a judge ordered her placed on the list. If she reaches maturity and has children, what is the chance that her children will advance the species?

    However, it seems that natural selection in humans always favored the aggressive types – not good for love, peace and harmony.

    Catch 22?

    We are doomed – there is no answer, we cannot solve even the small problems much less the really big problems.

    everyone else, the average work-a-day, tax paying, stiff.”

    By your definition, these cannot be good guys. They depend on government to set up the conditions for them to be work-a-day, tax paying stiffs.

    Robin, I like what I was reading, but got confused by the last paragraph.

    @ jwfitz

    ” As far as I can see, being vocal currently is a deterrent, because as snuffing you goes, well, it’s too conspicuous. A couple years out, things will be less elegant.”

    Yes. Our rulers operate on the basis of what can fly at any given time. If we’re like the frog in the oh so slowly heating water, they do not wish to heat it up so suddenly as to make us jump out or be too alarmed. They depend on us being hypnotized into believing all is normal. Hypnotism is a common tool of prey animals.

    They also depend on our lack of mutual understanding, our lack of common strategy. I wonder which is more detrimental to our species; our inability to think and act as one (in a positive sense), or the dire climate feedback loops in waiting?

    @ pat

    I was touched by your imagery: the passenger on the train heading for the cliff…and just looking out the window. Wow!

  • Roger, natural selection has favored a variety of personality types and abilities in humans. While not as set in our roles as ants we are born with a variety of special skills. For instance color blindness persists. Animals that eat fruit usually have color vision – chickens have, it dogs don’t. But still color blindness persists. Color blind people can see through camoflage better than normally sighted people, so for some types of seeing color blindness is better. To have both in a human population of cooperating people advanced the tribe as a whole. To have one with better smell, one with fine motor skills to make arrowheads, etc enhanced the whole tribe. People with two genes for sickle cell anemia die fairly young – a defective trait it would seem, but people with one are immune to malaria. Thus the trait while defective if carried by both genes give greater “fitness” for those who live in areas where malaria is rife.

    Guess what, Stone Age people carried the CF gene – and 1 in 20 now carry it as well http://www.nytimes.com/1994/06/01/us/cause-of-cystic-fibrosis-is-traced-to-the-stone-age.html because they posit it may have had a benefit just as the sickle cell did when only one copy was present

    snippet here of the article
    The seeming paradox of a potentially fatal mutation conferring benefits on those who have it in half-dose has a parallel in sickle-cell anemia, the most ubiquitous fatal genetic disease among blacks. In that case, the trait has endured through evolution because a person who possesses only one copy of the sickle-cell gene turns out to be more resistant to malaria than is somebody with no sickle-cell gene at all; malaria is endemic in those regions where the sickle-cell trait first evolved. But the luckless children who inherit two copies of the recessive sickle-cell gene end up with an extremely painful and ultimately lethal anemia. Possible Cholera Fighter

    Researchers said they do not yet know what the advantages of the cystic fibrosis trait may have been in the evolution of European populations. They theorize that the gene may lend resistance to cholera and other sources of bowel inflammation, diarrhea and dehydration, problems that have accounted for many deaths throughout human history, particularly among infants.

    I am not saying that being loving vs being aggressive is better. Each had their place. Humans took over the planet not alone like bears live, but as social critters that used the multiple talents of their tribe members to increase the fitness of the whole. Thus the smart tribe member, and the brawny one work as a unit due to the efforts of the peacemaker to crush their enemy or capture their prey. Humans are a pile of crock, but they didn’t get world domination by being big and aggressive as a solitary grizzly, they got it by using brains, brawn, aggression, cooperation to take over the planet. I can just see how well a tribe of super aggressive brutes would do. They would all end up killing each other.

    It would seem that it is our cooperative nature that in fact is the trait that dooms us. We cooperate to compete and thus the tribe becomes an awesome weapon against mastadons, and other tribes.

    Perhaps that is why the personalities of the parents often don’t pass on to the children. In fact why there are so many different personality types in the world. We cannot do much without the tribe, but with a tribe of varied personalities and skills we can destroy the world. It would have been better if we had the temperament of Grizzlies – we wouldn’t have done so much damage.

  • What more do you need to know? The grid goes down, the back-up generators run out of gas, the spent fuel rod pools can no longer be cooled, Viola!, Fukushima times 400.

    United States will go down swinging – Nuclear Bombs and all.

    This is not the second round of QE, this is closer to the 4th round. Some call it QE-infinity because its open ended printing.
    The real problem that you need to look at is the federal debt and future liabilities. If we continue what we’ve been doing for the last 50 years, we’re going to wake up one morning needing to print a trillion dollars a year just to service that debt. And there’s no way that our current revenue sources will ever be able to pay for our liabilities.

    Before we ever see 4C, we’ll be dead.

  • Rob said it “were done” said he
    ‘fore we see that fatal degree
    By nuke or by grid
    Or all else that we did
    ‘Bout this we both agree

    OK that is two – ‘nough said for today

  • New updates at Arctic-News.blogspot. Methane update!

  • The PTB are aware of the looming climate crash, its impact on food production and the resulting challenges to the elites’ hold on power. As those who comment on this blog realize, the government has been systematically assembling a surveillance/police state in preparation for the collapse of the candy store. Most recently, a regulatory code change has granted the military the power to intervene unilaterally in cases of civil unrest without prior consent from the president, or from local and state authorities.

    Federal military commanders have the authority, in extraordinary emergency circumstances where prior authorization by the President is impossible and duly constituted local authorities are unable to control the situation, to engage temporarily in activities that are necessary to quell large-scale, unexpected civil disturbances.


    Clearly, they are expecting things to deteriorate very quickly and they intend to put the nation on lock-down when it happens.

    Last Friday, the Guardian published a very informative article on the progression of these plans:

    The Pentagon knows that environmental, economic and other crises could provoke widespread public anger toward government and corporations in coming years. The revelations on the NSA’s global surveillance programmes are just the latest indication that as business as usual creates instability at home and abroad, and as disillusionment with the status quo escalates, Western publics are being increasingly viewed as potential enemies that must be policed by the state.


  • Kathy said:

    “We cannot do much without the tribe, but with a tribe of varied personalities and skills we can destroy the world. It would have been better if we had the temperament of Grizzlies – we wouldn’t have done so much damage.”

    Every coin has two sides. The capacity to destroy the world can be (or could have been) flipped to the capacity to save it as well. We’ve always done things through identifying ourselves with small, mutually adversarial groups. Suddenly faced with the reality that we are one single group faced with extinction has (or had) the potential to make us cooperate on a more complex level than ever. It’s like when you visit a store (or any large impersonal establishment’s) restroom, and you take the time to thoroughly clean and polish the sink after using it.

  • 2nd and last post for today:

    Yes, that’s right, but don’t get me wrong, I believe we are headed for 4C, 5C, 6C and beyond. The problem for humans is 6 or 7 billion people fighting for food and water as we climb the thermometer to 4C. Humans will not be around to see 4C because we’ll be killing ourselves off trying to secure the shrinking resources.

    If you are left with only the choice of kill or die, well, we know that humans kill for much less, so I assume there will be a lot of killing!

    Doesn’t matter what Ripley and B9K9 do, doesn’t matter what Wester does. Doesn’t matter if you’re tired, homeless, and lonely. Doesn’t matter if you are in a bountiful commune surrounded by family and friends. We are going to fry – either by nuclear bombs or nuclear power plants melting down or in the stew pot of your neighbor or in a FEMA crematorium.

  • Considering the subject matter in this space, I believe the following movie suggestion is appropriate. It’s bleak, but also beautifully engrossing. I give it three thumbs up. Here’s a poignant and concise review:


    *** This review may contain spoilers ***

    Just as I expected, seeing this film is an engrossing experience!Every quiet moment has a lot to offer.

    I feel like being the autopsy doctor in the story, but instead of examining a corpse, the audience examines the character’s minds. Delving into the doctor’s mind turns out to be incredibly intriguing for me! It is very interesting to see the person who is supposed to be the most observant turns out to be the most oblivious, and the person who is supposed to be the most cool-headed turns out to be the most empathetic.

    The film is abundant with complicated interactions among the conscious, the unmindful, and the subconscious minds. In one of the excellent scenes, all the main characters are sitting in a room which is poorly lit with a flickering gasoline lamp. The angelic face of the mayor’s daughter serves like a psychological blank screen, revealing the demons of each of the main characters without they themselves noticing it. (As audience, we only more surely, but not definitely, understand what the demons are when the film comes to the end. ) While the characters project their feelings to the innocent figure, the camera pans to the distorted shadow on the wall of the mayor’s daughter against the lamp light, hinting at the Allegory of the Cave. The analogy is indeed masterfully posited here foreshadowing the paradox in truth-finding, the theme of the story. The other must-mention scene is,of course, the ending, which is symbolized by the blood stain on the doctor’s face. The stain is no different from a scornful spit from the deceased victim, and the justice system. It is also, however, an ethical choice, a moral decision that he deliberately made to spare the pain of the victim’s family.

    Truth can be accessed by only few people, and exclusively by those who consciously stay mindful. For the rest of the people, they may not even know whether they can handle the truth.

  • got confused by the last paragraph.

    When attempting to discard the negative templates, we also build an image of what we might become. We apply our various templates to ourselves to see which ones fit. If we have a “gullible” template but lack a “prudent” template, we think we may become gullible if we do not paint other persons as “bad”. This is because without the “prudence” template, in the absence of tar-brushing, gullibility is the only possibility. In other words, the tar-brushing templates are seen as an only form of prudence.

    Cooperation is adaptive to the tribe. Benefits result therefrom for the tribe and individual members.
    Insofar as the benefits reaching the individuals outweigh the benefits lost to the individual by muting competition with other member individuals, cooperation will be selected for.

  • Daniel, my pleasure. :)

    NTE and Anthropocentrism

    Non-objective deriving
    Won’t predict, and I ain’t jiving;
    Talk about good and bad
    Has nothing to add,
    Just like the talk of surviving.

    Jet Stream

    “Why,” now asks the newscaster,
    “Is the jet stream causing disaster?
    The one reason it’s there
    Is to move upper air,
    So we can fly east faster.”

  • I just received July/August issue of The Atlantic. At the back of the magazine various prominent people were asked how they envisioned the world ending. Needless to say Guy wasn’t included, but they did include Bill McKibben who offered some mumble-jumble about the planet as we know already being over and that “the only question left is how much more fossil fuel we’ll burn and hence how unfamiliar and inhospitable we’ll make our home planet.” Not necessarily untrue but McKibben’s still smoking hopium, albeit of a very low potency.

    Oddly enough, the ‘notable person’ who nailed it was spiritualist Deepak Chopra. Here’s his take: “The end of the world will come about as a result of the misunderstanding that we and the world are separate. Tidal waves will flood coastal landmasses resulting in millions of refugees, violence, warfare and chaos. The earth will become a boiling cauldron. The human experiment will have failed.”

  • SAO PAULO (AP) — Some of the biggest demonstrations since the end of Brazil’s 1964-85 dictatorship have broken out across this continent-sized country, uniting tens of thousands frustrated by poor transportation, health services, education and security despite a heavy tax burden.

    More than 100,000 people were in the streets Monday for largely peaceful protests in at least eight big cities. However, demonstrations in Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte were marred by vandalism and violent clashes with police.

    About two dozen people were reported injured.

  • CAIRO (AP) — Clashes erupted between supporters and opponents of Egypt’s president and his Muslim Brotherhood Tuesday over his appointment of new Islamist governors, some in areas where opponents are strong.

    The protests signaled increasing tension in the deeply polarized nation ahead of mass protests demanding the ouster of the president, Mohammed Morsi, who marks his first year in power June 30.

    On Sunday, Morsi appointed 17 new governors, including seven members of the Brotherhood and one from an ex-militant group to rule the ancient city of Luxor. That appointment outraged Luxor residents, as the governor’s group claimed responsibility for a 1997 massacre of dozens of tourists there.

    Demonstrators sealed off gates of governors’ offices around the country.

  • @Robin, Kathy, etc.

    Summarizing accumulated information is a good idea, but I’m sure Guy has much better things to do. Going back to read everything is a nice idea, but it’s a big time commitment and not that many people will do it.

    A good format for this sort of thing is a wiki, and wiki software is widely available. Many posters here seem to have their own blogs, NBL uses WordPress and there are plugins for WordPress (though the first one I pulled up wanted to charge for the full version). I don’t know if it would be something Guy would be interested in hosting or if it should be an independent effort.

    A few editors could keep up with current postings and whittle away at the backlog. It would be quite a bit of work for those volunteers, but once done keeping up with it would not be a huge effort (there really aren’t that many posts here).

  • From Henry, May 21, 2013:

    First, a process gripe. It seems we start out with an essay, initially commenting upon it, then devolving into discussion of any and everything on our minds. Well, OK. That’s the structure offered here, and it’s mostly useful or entertaining or thought-provoking. Quality people, sharing their experiences and wisdom.

    A critique, from long forum experience, and long avoidance of same since at least 10 years back. For every poster, there are 10 to 100 readers, concerned about the topic and looking for value for their reading time.

    I’ve long thought that forum hosts/owners should be able to maximize/minimize (either through text size or pop-up/drill down availability) posts that s/he finds useful/unuseful to the forum’s purpose, allowing the new or regular reader to choose how to go through over 100 comments under each essay, and not just give up long before the end. Not to censor, or ban; just pre-reviewed by the central character, in this case, Guy. Sadly, I’ve never seen that function implemented anywhere. (Knowing Guy a little bit, I’ll bet he’d let the humor through, all of it! — Jah knows we need it.)

    Guy pours his heart out for us, and has touched us all. Deeply, in my case. He’s brought together and inspired a community that embodies my sharpest life concerns at the moment, and for the past 8 months. And probably from here on out.

    I’m sure Guy devised and maintains this site so that people can bring their best thoughts into the company of the finest minds who have accepted the climate change/NTE premise, new to many of us, and ahead of nearly everyone else. Talk about being an outsider, and huddling with your fellow outcasts! (“Hey, what were those bad tidings, again? Come over here. Chop!”)

  • NASA: warming oceans are driving Antarctic ice shelf meltdown

    “The study found basal melt accounted for 55 percent of all Antarctic ice shelf mass loss from 2003 to 2008, an amount much higher than previously thought.”


  • Putting Drone into the service of hungry masses.

    ‘Video: End of pizza delivery boys? Domino’s trials delivery system using unmanned drone’


    Britain too expensive now for Aussies.

    ‘Strewth mate. Aussies wave goodbye to Britain as it becomes too pricey to stay’


    A quote:

    “Take the shrimps off the barbie and put the stubbies back in the fridge: the Aussies are leaving Britain and the companies which served them are going bust.

    The Australian population in Britain shrank by 22,000 between 2010 and 2011, according to the latest government figures. Tighter immigration laws, an unfavourable exchange rate and the greater impact of the recession in Britain have made leaving the sun behind a less attractive proposition.”

    depressive lucidity

    Those two links show how it is time to get out of the USA, but go where? Australia is what John Ralston-Sual describes as a ‘Vassal State’ of USA. We are getting our equivalent of the Utah bunker storage vault.

    ‘Macquarie Telecom to build Canberra data ‘bunker”


    A quote:

    “The company’s government and security executive, Glen Noble, said the gateway consolidation program was one of a number of developments that highlighted a “rapid growth in public sector demand for secure and resilient hosted services”.

    Macquarie Telecom said it would deploy best-of-breed security and networking technology in Intellicentre 4, which would “exceed ISO, DSD and ASIO specifications”.”

    It seems a little too cosy, the mutual and convergent interests of an elected government and corporate interests….or is it just finally joining the dots.


    I have been putting two and two together in the problem of the decline of honey bees – definitely seen it here in my district.

    Arnie Gundersen and others have detailed how the trees, I think conifers, in the vicinity of Fukushima have highly concentrated Cesium in their flower pollen, just waiting for birds, insects and indeed bees to come and have ‘contact’ with.

    I don’t know about anyone else, but do we think these little critters can take much of that and last long. That is not discounting the effects of temperature rise etc.
    The Cesium from Fukushima has disbursed very far indeed:

    ‘Fukushima Model: Cesium 137 Dispersal in Pacific’


    ‘Atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from the Fukushima-Daichii nuclear power plant’


    To Bee or not to Bee.

    I have nearly some 40 Broad Bean plants in and flowering very well, but no bees to pollinate it seems.
    As it is said in the older English novels:

    “there is no help for it”

  • Alaska Bakes with All-time Heat Records

    Folks went from reveling in the forecast, saying they deserve the warm weather after the cold wet spring, to, yes, WHINING about the heat. No one mentioning anything about CLIMATE CHANGE as of yet…I did use the terms ‘global warming’, ‘climate change’, ‘jet stream’, ‘melting arctic’ on the phone with my sister, explaining what that all means. I suppose all she heard was blahblahblahblah. Not sure what it takes for people to realize it is no joke, but I find myself continually disenchanted with my Alaskan brethren when it comes to real world concerns. Oh, well. Hope oldgrowthforest who reads/comments here from up north is weathering the weather!

  • World War Z looks like a primer not so much about Zombies but in how the world will react to the Global Fossil Fuel Gauge going to Zero.

    The movie seems like a precursor for ‘softening up’ the minds of the Sheeple to embracing Martial Lockdown, you know, for your own good.

  • @Tadpole

    Or Guy could simply provide a new open thread for us once per week in addition to the published essay, then we could whine at people who drift too far off topic in the essay discussion and tell them to post on the open thread.

  • FWIW, I think Guy is handling the blog just fine. :)

    OzMan says: To Bee or not to Bee.

    “To be—or not to be”
    On a great many minds we shall see,
    And they’ll end feeling glum
    (V. what dreams may come);
    It’s O.K. if you don’t agree.

  • Folks, if someone wants to reject Climate Change, NTE/dieoff, dieback, Peak Oil, evolution, the Big Bang or the whole shebang, jolly good!

    If they turn out to be right, doomsayers will be as happy as a pig in s**t. (Everyone who consumes nonrenewable resources is a doomer, but not everyone of them is a doomsayer). If the rejectors prove wrong, everyone including them will be the peegs in the sheet, but not quite as happy. The ones who will be quietly shocked and the ones who raise the biggest stink will be the ones who had the different expectations.

    The show must (and will) go on. Come one, come all. Come as you are (intellectually, and reptilian brain-wise). We shall see what we shall see.

  • Artleads you wrote “Every coin has two sides. The capacity to destroy the world can be (or could have been) flipped to the capacity to save it as well.”

    OK you don’t seem to understand. A while back Guy offered some hope for saving the world. Since pumping CO2 into the air is causing disastrous warming, and humans have shown no inclination to stop doing that, he proposed that to end industrial civilization was the only way to save us from extinction temps. The flip side of that is that ending industrial civ would mean the untimely death of billions. Followers of Peak Oil understand that and the reasons why 7 billion cannot stay alive on this planet without fossil fuels. Since overpopulation is part of our problem that isn’t necessarily a bad unless of course you are one of the billions that would die early. Some have put the sustainable world population without fossil fuels at 1 billion or less. Getting population down to those numbers by population control measures could never do the job in time. Renewable energy (solar panels, windmills etc) all require fossil fuel to work.

    Recently we came to understand that without fossil fuels and the grid they make possible, we cannot cool the worlds 439 nuclear power plants so that when the grid goes down, they all melt down and all their spent fuel pools burn as happened at Fukushima. So ending industrial civ adds immense radiation to the other hits we would take and thus ending industrial civ would probably mean extinction.

    However ending industrial civ even without the nukes problem will not stop global warming, the feedbacks are now fully in place and the only way they can possibly be stopped from leading to extinction temps is geo engineering. All in favor of further messing with our atmosphere please raise your hands.

    With the most recent readings of Co2 and methane Arctic News Blog Spot suggests we are on a path to 10 degrees centigrade temp rise https://arctic-news.blogspot.ca/2013/06/mean-methane-levels-reach-1800-ppb.html#comment-form In fact looking at the charts provided it is hard to see why we aren’t already at there – I asked Guy and he said “prior warming events preceded release of atmospheric carbon dioxide (due to increased respiration relative to photosynthesis) … this time, CO2 shot up first, and temperature is following (ergo, the lag)” Global Dimming caused by pollution may also be holding temps back, so it is possible that the end of industrial civ would see a spike in temps.

    We haven’t shown that we do have the capacity to save the planet to date. It seems clear to me that if we had that capacity as humans we have waited too long to use it and we are out of options. Sam Carana from the Arctic News site and the folks at Arctic Methane Emergency Group think we still have time if we start geoengineering – in part they suggest plans that would increase global dimming. They don’t understand that when industrial civ ends from peak oil and the related economic collapse industrial dimming will end, geo-engineering will end, the temporary cooling will end, the planet will fry from heat and radiation. We are out of options.

    Guy suggests resistance anyway. Some want to go down fighting, some don’t. Doing what you feel is right matters but Humans are done along with most of the species of the planet. We will leave it to a few heat loving bacteria and they will not have time to evolve into much at all before our dying sun strips the planet of its atmosphere in about 1 billion years.

    So it goes…you can hope for alien intervention, that’s about it. Since humans have missed the opportunity to save the planet, I reject the idea that they could have. They didn’t. What they could have done is conjecture and hardly supported by history.

    Greek philosopher Plato (427 – 347 BC) compared hills and mountains of Greece to the bones of a wasted body: “All the richer and softer parts have fallen away and the mere skelton of the land remains.” In part the trees were cut down to smelt ore to make weapons…sound familiar?

    We have been eating away at our home since we discovered fire. Too Smart for our Own Good by Craig Dilworth explains why we are doomed by our own success.

  • All in favor of further messing with our atmosphere please raise your hands.

    I’m raising my hand high here. If you firmly believe what you are saying and agree with Robin that doomsayers don’t welcome a mass extinction and would be relieved to be wrong, then you have no choice than to “favor further messing with our atmosphere.” Of course, Robin could be wrong in stereotyping an entire group and labeling that stereotype as doomsayers, or his stereotype could be wrong and another in lieu of it would be more appropriate. Maybe doomsayers deep-down crave extinction as a sort of persecution complex; an artifact left over and reassembled from their discarded former religiosity.

  • Sorry for posting this on two threads. This seems more active now. I just wanted to point to some thoughtful words by Mark Cochrane about deniers and doomers:


  • @ Tony

    Do you take that as an adequate response from Cochrane ? I certainly don’t. This issue has nothing to do with doomers v. deniers as if it was a football match. That’s an absurd distraction. He starts of saying it’s about the science, so why does he even bring that up ?
    Unfortunately, like so many scientists, he’s so focussed upon his tiny little patch he can’t see anything else.

    If we do what he says a scientist should do, look at the accumulated peer reviewed evidence, etc, what happened on previous occasions when atmospheric carbon levels shot up ? Guess what ? We had a mass extinction event. And the levels went up rather gently, slowly, over a long period. Not over a few decades, as of today. And that’s only ONE of the reasons why we get NTE. This has nothing to do with doom or denial, it has to do with cold appraisal of what is obvious.

  • Lisa, given the results of all our messing so far, I see no point in messing further with our atmosphere. I understand those who want to do it however. My doomsaying is not left over from former religiosity, as in my former Christian days I believed neither in hell or apocalypse.

    As for wanting extinction, for a long time in fact I worked to make the world a better place. I wanted to believe that believers in a good god would right the wrongs in the world I helped save babied in Haiti only to realize that the good of saving lives = the bad of overpopulation. Around that time I also realized that to live in a way that all the people of the world could live and that was ecologically safe for the planet was a lifestyle I didn’t want. And my friends all thought I was living a very low lifestyle. I didn’t know how to campaign to save the world by reducing lifestyle if I was unwilling to do what I though needed to be done. And that was in the early 90s

    We in the first world get to watch sunrises and sunsets and enjoy them, while girls and boys all over the world are sold into sex slavery even in our country and never get to enjoy them. So if the only way to stop the horror of what humans do to each other is extinction, yes I am all for it. Since Lot offered his daughters to the men of Sodom rather than let them rape his young male guests, the abuse of young children has been unabated. How differently the world must look to them than to us who have had a better life than kings of the middle ages.

    But my words don’t matter. The fact is that even if they do geo engineering we won’t be saved because the oil is running out which will collapse the economy which will mean fires will burn without being put out, nuclear power plants the world over will melt down, and the pollution caused global dimming will cease sending our temps soaring. So I don’t care if they do or don’t do geo engineering. But anyone who thinks I am wrong is free to lobby for it. All the governments of the world will do if they take it up is use it to let them burn a bit more of the nasty oils and gasses before the end.

    Btd and Curtis are always my inspiration to be concise. So which is better, my two long posts or this

    If only we could we would
    We know for sure we should
    We won’t go extinct
    If only we think
    What we should we certainly could – NOT

  • @ Tony

    We’ve just listened for twenty years to voices very similar to Cochrane’s, telling us that the Arctic ice was not expected to melt until 2080, or 2100, or whatever, balablaba, and they have been consistently WRONG, in all of their forecasts, by underestimating the speed of the changes.

    If you watch this video on methane, around 4:50, there’s almost an exact match between the methane spike, and the temperature spike of about 12 deg C, over a decade.

    You wanted to argue about a lot of nonsense about Malcolm Light. He’s irrelevant, imo, Cochrane is also irrelevant. I think there’s a strong likelihood we will see that spike. That’s what Sam Carana seems to think, and others, more knowledgeable than myself.

    We’ll probably know quite soon. But, as I said, even if not, the methane is still only ONE cause of NTE.

  • Kathy, thank you. I am honored and humbled to be complimented by you.

  • Kathy Cassandra

    Very succinct case study for humans on Earth.

    I think you have all but written that short piece for that other blog someone was asking you to do.


    Look, I perhaps have no great rep here on NBL because I advocate more than the present Scientific view as a model for what goes on in our local bit of the cosmos, but I just want to put in a disclaimer here.

    What Kathy Cassandra writes above is very likely what is happening and very likely will happen, but only in that the data used, and the Scientific cosmological ‘model’ Science at present proposes and promotes, is but a subset of what this place actually is, and how the cosmos really operates.

    I’ve put this side of things up before in various permutations, and I personally have experienced events that run completely counter to the model of reality being used to predict Scientific based events. If anyone here has ever seen the Tom Stoppard play(film) ‘Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead’ and view this short clip, you might get where I am coming from.


    That is a bit of light relief, but moving along…(and yes of course it is a bit of fiction.)

    I wish to clearly assert our place in the scheme of things is not central, I want no part of that history, but it is significant, nonetheless, because we do have within our real selves the portals to channel and alter real events.

    I have spoken to elders in groups here that tell reliable stories of the ‘participation mystique’ of humans and climate phenomena, like rain, snow, lightening and storms, that typically were described in centuries past as animistic and ‘spirit’ based – like in Persian lore they refer to Gins, or weather ‘spirits’.

    I am not advocating a return to older ways of ‘describing’ what we still call rather animisticly , but simultaneously Scientifically, ‘Nature’.

    I am advocating looking at the lived experience of the planet and conceding that with human participation, of perhaps encounters with the forms of the landscape, or with a Shamanic understanding of the same, the raw power of ‘Nature’, the Earth itself, can geomorphologise and climatolicly sequester the GHG’s from the atmosphere.

    Granted, I perhaps have just signed my own straight jacket release form, to be used against me at a date not too distant, by any one here’s normal reckoning of what is possible, but as it is ‘really’ the only workable solution to our world predicament, encompassing all concerns, I am going to give it a go.

    Or should I say I am gong to ask for it to be done.

    I don’t reckon I can try this more than once, nor provide burgers and fries for everyone and complimentary soda, so I am counting on us learning the lesson at the same time. That really means it has to get pretty bad, for everyone, so there is no more wriggle room and denial.

    It will probably cost me my life, but as Guy states from his own perspective, if that is what it takes to really get the job done(and no repeat is possible) then so be it.

    How, someone asks?

    If I told you, you simply would not believe me. I cant promise instant success, but it will be obvious to all concerned it gets done.
    Can’t really say more, (not withholding, just keeping cards close).

    There is another clip that I will throw in, just to make some regulars blood boil, or scoff louder, makes it all funner.

    ‘Raising the X-Wing’

    ( Up until 5:13 is relevant )

    sage advice from the glove puppet himself……

    Yoda: “You must unlearn what you have learned”
    Luke Skywalker: I’m not afraid !

    Yoda: You will be…you will be !!

    Methinks we better get use to lightning and rain…. lots of rain.

  • Lisa, it’s always risky speaking for others, but I really don’t think any of us wants to see the wholesale destruction of the planet. If we did, we wouldn’t be here. After all, the wholesale destruction of the planet is what’s happening now with the industrial economy.

    We’ve so messed up the planet with all of our technological advances and all of our “better life” ways, thinking that we can fix our way out of this with more technological advances is nothing more than magical thinking. Not too far from the alien intervention that Kathy C mentioned.

    For the purposes of argument, however, let’s say that we did undertake geoengineering and it was successful. Then what? We are still adding hundreds of people to the planet every minute of every day. We are still running out of oil. We are still running out of fresh water. We are still running out of land to grow food. We are still creating more and more nuclear waste with no plan for disposing of it. We are still overfishing the oceans to the point that 97% of the tuna have disappeared. I could go on, unfortunately, but I think I’ve made my point.

    There simply are no options. For every problem we fix, there are dozens more waiting in the wings; each with the potential to end the world as we know it. All at a time when net available energy is declining.

    So, the end of the world is coming, whether we like it or not or want to believe it or not. There’s nothing left for “us” to do, so the question becomes what do YOU want to do. Whatever that is, go for it.

  • Here is a good example of how climate change combined with a reduction in net available energy will lead to catastrophes that we don’t have the resources to address. I highlighted a portion of the article below because I suspect that the reason they won’t address it until Friday and haven’t addressed it already is because they just don’t have the resources. Geoengineering, which is what they’re talking about on a small scale, is expensive and requires lots of fossil fuel based technology – the very technologies which got us in this fix to start with.

    Indonesia plans to use weather changing technology to try to unleash torrents of rain and extinguish raging fires on Sumatra island that have cloaked neighbouring Singapore in thick haze, an official said Wednesday.

    The city-state, which is home to 5.3 million inhabitants, has been pressing Jakarta to take action to put out the blazes, which have pushed air pollutant levels on the island to a 16-year high.

    Indonesian forestry ministry official Raffles Panjaitan said the government planned to use a technology called “cloud-seeding” to try and put out the fires, that are mainly centred on peatlands in Riau province.

    Helicopters would be sent into the skies above Sumatra to inject chemicals into clouds, which prompt the formation of heavy ice crystals, and so speed up the production of rain.

    But the helicopters, from the disaster management agency, would not be dispatched until Friday at the earliest as preparations first needed to be made, said Panjaitan.

    About 100 firefighters tackling the blazes were finding them difficult to extinguish as they were smouldering underground in carbon-rich peatland, mostly in palm oil plantations, he said.

    “It is extremely difficult to extinguish the fires which are burning under the surface of the peatland,” he said.

    He said the cloud-seeding operation would depend on weather conditions. “Hopefully there will be lots of clouds so that we can produce a lot of rain,” he added.

    The worst affected area was Bengkalis district, where 650 hectares (1,600 acres) of land was ablaze, he said, adding that 555 fires had been detected in Riau up from 356 the previous month.

    In Singapore, the Pollutant Standards Index soared to 172 at 3:00 pm (0700 GMT), well past the officially designated “unhealthy” threshold of 100, according to the National Environment Agency (NEA) website.

    It was Singapore’s worst haze reading since September 1997 when the number peaked at 226.

    The haze problem is a recurring one which happens in the dry season as a result of forest fires in the sprawling Indonesian archipelago, some of them deliberately started to clear land for cultivation.


  • Human exceptionalism is the voice that in this 11th hour, holds out the smoking pipe of Hopium that ‘geo-engineering’ will not be the Last Greatest Clusterphuck humanity lamely has to offer the Earth as the parting shot of Industrial Civilization.

  • Can’t resist, breaking rules but this is a must see.

    Max Keiser (and George Galloway) Call The Absolute 300-yr Top in Sovereign Debt!



  • KathyC says “Given the results of all our messing so far, I see no point in messing further with our atmosphere. I understand those who want to do it however.”

    Kathy, the point I continually attempt to make is that it doesn’t matter what you, I or anyone else thinks is or isn’t good and/or possible. The key to understanding how this plays out is that (artificial) attempts will be made to resolve, neutralize and in general, engineer solutions to solve our collective plight.

    As Bush said, “you’re either with us or against us”; too many seem to construe this as a unique Cheney invention, but it’s really simply a mirror of how all tribal systems operate. During periods of peak prosperity, alternative & dissident voices are commonly allowed, if only on the margins. Take away padded reserves, and out come the witch hunts.

    It’s amusing to read juvenile rants about the condition we find ourselves, what with all manner of heap, scorn & blame heaped upon favorite targets, but in the final analysis (other than finding yourself dead), it’s not gonna make any difference.

    You can either accept “reality”, and remain silent and/or (falsely) cheerlead, or you can stand out and draw extra scrutiny. Not one ‘progressive/activist’ has any experience/idea of pursuing their personal calling in anything other than extremely abundant times.

    If you accept the general premise of NTE, and that nature indeed does bat last, regardless of human attempts to the contrary, then you might agree that you’re already in the camp. At that point, what do you do to live another day – I don’t seem to recall camp survivors being chastised for surviving.

  • “Not one ‘progressive/activist’ has any experience/idea of pursuing their personal calling in anything other than extremely abundant times.”

    Eh? And whit planet hiv you been liviin’ oan?

  • “Maybe doomsayers deep-down crave extinction as a sort of persecution complex; an artifact left over and reassembled from their discarded former religiosity.”

    Yeah, and trust me, Lisa, psychologists/psychiatrists would have a field day on this site!

  • Cowgirl Apocalypse Haiku #20

    a first-world Hail Mary heave.
    Home team doesn’t pray.

  • Kathy C,

    I get it. Or I get pieces of it, as I’ve done for decades.

    You can’t destroy vegetation, soil, water or air while adding a million people to Earth each day, and expect to survive.

    Industrial civilization is unlikely to end prior to economic collapse, so who will die by its ending is academic. Even so, aborigines in the forest wouldn’t be hurt, as neither would tribal people living on (and of) the land. Except by global nuclear holocaust, which I admit is not unlikely.

    No new solar panels would be built, but if you already had some, and your own well or land to grow food, you could do OK, barely.

    Which brings us to B9K9’s point: The world order is governed by stupid, vicious men that control all the means for compliance to their wishes. Their stupidity ensures that they will not be able to survive the rest of us for any appreciable amount of time. And they cannot think creatively or altruistically about optimal and inclusive ways to deal with extinction.

    BK9K thinks its all about resource scarcity. But that only affects you if your value system allows no alternative to the lifestyle led by ind civ. Stopping ind civ cold won’t hurt everybody, like those surviving in the forest, or even Western people who can distill their own alcohol or biofuel to power their lives, or who have the environmental and knowledge base to live as aborigines do. But because such a negligible few can do this, the goons are well prepared for the rest of us. We can’t even see that, because they are men, living on male-dominant paradigm on steroids, the women of the world, dominant by numbers, could surely wrest some of their power away…

    So, stopping industrial civilization cold would lead to hell, not due entirely to technologic shortfall, but also to value sets.

    The already triggered feedback loops is different. Or maybe not entirely. If ind civ could be stopped (one huge, if incomplete, extinction driver) could there be non-technologic means to counter the droughts, heatwaves, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes? I think so: Design. Humans working together can build basements under houses or lift houses onto stilts, or relocate them underground. Some machinery could be powered by biofuels.

    For just one thing, there could be a race between macro climate change preventing the proliferation of vegetation, as opposed to micro-climates, aggregated, softening the effects of macro climate change. People just brush me aside when I mention this. Ah well. C’est la vie. They’ve brushed me aside for decades. And this is what they get.

  • Objectivity!
    Eyes Wide Shut
    Confirmation Bias :-)

    (apologies for extra post and bad haiku maths!)

  • Surprise, surprise.

    Toxic Radiation Soars in Fukushima Groundwater


  • Don’t Kill The Messenger

    It could be that I am in error,
    But I think we’re going to see terror;
    If you don’t agree,
    Please don’t find fault with me:
    I’m only the message bearer.

    The REAL Dr. House says: There simply are no options. For every problem we fix, there are dozens more waiting in the wings; each with the potential to end the world as we know it.

    I’m sure it’s just aging and all,
    But the list of ways doom can befall
    That we cannot forestall
    Turns out isn’t small,
    And it’s way more than I can recall.

  • I’ve never been able to say this before, but I agree with U. Being a doomer is not simply being a member of a club.

    If I’m in a building that is on fire and all the exits are blocked, I can rationally surmise that I am doomed. Sure, I can devise a plan to run through the fire and hope for the best, but, like Henry says, I’m 95% sure that I am going to die. Now, if you put 5 people in the building, that’s when it gets interesting. Some will immediately start blaming TPTB for having built a building so lacking in escape options in the event of a fire! Some will try to tell the others that “we are all going to die!” And, some will try to “think of something” to get them out of this mess. Still others will spend their last moments as best as they can. The end result is the same – everyone dies.

    I think U is right, we are not doomers by choice – we didn’t jump on the NTE bandwagon just because it’s the hip thing to do.

    We are already into The Collapse. None of us knows how fast environmental collapse, economic collapse, and societal collapse will overtake us, but it IS coming. The building is on fire and all the exits are blocked.

  • Geez, the over-hyped resisters want to take issue with those of us that are just going to lay down and let the world go up in smoke. I’m not judging THEM for their futile efforts which they themselves admit. Don’t judge ME because I’m not interested in “sticking it to the man.”

    I can see the point of those individuals that lived their whole lives fighting for the environment, living ascetic lives, caring for animals, plants, and bugs. They are living their ideals – to the end. I respect and admire their resolve. However, there is no point in shouting at the rest of us for “being late to the party.” I didn’t know, I didn’t see, I’m sorry, I failed as a member of The Living Things on Earth.

    Now that I am aware, I’m very aware that there is nothing left to do and nothing left to not do. And that is precisely because it’s too late for anything to make any difference.

    My pre-aware complicity in the destruction of the Earth was innocent – I didn’t know. And my post-aware complicity is innocent because I don’t know what else to do. I can go downtown and stand on a corner with a sign that says “No Nukes” or I can help the homeless or I can burn down govt buildings – but if I’m doing it just hoping to somehow find redemption, then I’m chasing something I will never catch.

    Now, the resisters might say that we humans have an obligation to The Living Things on Earth to try anything to try to save something. Okay, that’s fair. The problem with that is the difficulty in determining what we can do that will actually give some living thing a chance. In my opinion, many of the actions of the resistance are actually delaying the collapse – and what we really need is for the collapse to happen quickly so some living thing MIGHT have a chance. I don’t see any point in resisting unless we have a real plan and a real goal. Personally, I don’t wish to resist simply to “stick it to the man” or to redeem my soul.

    If the Resistance acknowledges that the goal is for 90% of the Earth’s population to die quickly AND for the toxic infrastructure of industrial civilization to be dismantled AND for the surviving humans to take an oath to live in balance with Nature (build no cities, plant no crops), then I’m on board and let’s come up with the plan. Yes, any plan we come up with is most likely going to be in conflict with other people’s plans and we will basically be in a war – but, we state the goal, we devise the plan, and we march into the battle. Win or lose, we can at least say we tried.

    Otherwise, I’m sitting on the train heading over the cliff ordering cocktails and hors d’oeuvres…

  • A fun new toy!!

    Dear researchers, dear IAM modellers, dear interested public,

    This is to announce a new online resource: The MAGICC6 climate model. You will be able to select or upload your own emission scenario, calculate greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing and global-mean/hemispheric temperatures online.

    Aside from being a great educational resource for schools, university classes and projects, MAGICC is used in high-profile research and policy reports for more than twenty years (leaving out the multiple links)

    The online version of MAGICC6 is at: live.magicc.org

    MAGICC is developed by Prof. Tom Wigley, Dr. Sarah Raper and Dr. Malte Meinshausen.
    The web-interface of MAGICC6 has been developed by Antonius Golly.

    With best regards,
    The MAGICC team.

    there’s also a wiki dot magicc dot org

  • @Artleads

    “For just one thing, there could be a race between macro climate change preventing the proliferation of vegetation, as opposed to micro-climates, aggregated, softening the effects of macro climate change. People just brush me aside when I mention this. Ah well. C’est la vie. They’ve brushed me aside for decades. And this is what they get.”

    Micro-climates are very important. People who farm, garden and know the local plants intimately know this to be true. Certain plants only grow in certain micro-climates like Ginseng sp. for example.

    In the Pliocene epoch around three to six million years ago BP CO2 levels were above 400 ppm. Sea levels were ten to forty meters higher than they are now. Man, there goes the coastal cities eh? Fagus sp. and Quercus sp. were around then which was interesting to learn about. There were lots of swamps as one could imagine and it is said the bipedalism of Australopithecus afarensis ie; “Lucy” was discovered during this period in Earth’s history. Maybe we’ll get to see snakes as big as school buses after all.

    Still no brown bat sitings in my neck of the woods. The micro-climate where I live resembles a tropical jungle this time of year and with all the copious amounts of rain experienced recently the flush of plant growth observed on woody plants has been phenomenal. Fruit trees had a tremendous fruit set but the veggie garden can use several days of sunshine and warm weather to kick it up a notch and to allow the saturated soil to drain and a change of more dry air to keep the molds, mildews and fungus at bay. Blueberries look terrific and strawberries are in great abundance. Made a killer strawberry-rhubarb pie this past weekend. If it all goes to Hell tomorrow I won’t mind. I’m in my element doing what I enjoy. Protect life.

  • @Pat says “Acknowledge the goal is for 90% of the Earth’s population to die quickly AND for the toxic infrastructure of industrial civilization to be dismantled … then I’m on board and let’s come up with the plan.”

    Ah, but here’s the thing: that plan has already been worked out. However, like the clod-hopper tromping unknowingly through the underbrush and disturbing the hunters’ carefully constructed kill zone, the PTB are not going to be welcoming outsiders with open arms.

    One of the more amusing aspects of NBL, is that it’s not sufficient to just accept the possibility of NTE, but it’s also critical to perform in the pity party pageant. Conforming to this litmus test means that one must embrace the mantle of unique, misunderstood genius, which all others must affirm as the world thus crumbles. A good visual would be Ralphie tearfully declaring that it was “soap poisoning” as his parents wailed for forgiveness.

    Heaven forbid the suggestion that others may not only onto the same conclusion, but are actually way ahead on the curve. One thing I learned from my career was any unique idea one might have thought they had was soon proven to have been previously grasped by hundreds, and already financed by a handful.

    The reaction by those musing about the unfolding disaster(s) who learn that they do not have some kind of superior insight vis-a-vis the PTB, who in fact most certainly do “get it”, reminds me of a classic exchange back when my wife & I were first dating.

    We were at a friend’s house for some kind of party, and were talking to another who was describing her recent break-up with her live in boyfriend. (The girl gang, which numbered around 5-7, were in their post-college 20s angling to get married, as they all eventually did, so losing one was a real blow.) As she waxed on about how “he” got the couch, and maybe that token would continue to remind him of her, the hostess’ brother, a good natured, albeit drunken buffoon, blurted out “yeah, he’s gonna remember you as he’s fucking some new girl on that couch alright”.

    The shock of realization was instantaneous, as it was obviously true. We all politely ahemmed and moved on, but that incident still pops up as shorthand when we’re attempting to describe the proverbial ‘shot out of the blue’. Likewise, the self assured belief that only “the smartest people in the world get it” appears to suffer a tremendous blow when they figure out that others are way, way ahead in thinking & planning how this is all going to go down.

  • No doomer here, only a realist. No doomsayer here, either, I simply discuss the weather when the opportunity arises.
    I do lament that the people I love are increasingly showing themselves to be the ‘Obama is coming to take my guns’ type, and even though I love them fiercely, I cannot tolerate people who gain any part of their world view from Rush Limbaugh, Glen Beck, Ted Nugent, etc…so, I talk about the weather, which is no small feat. Two years in a row I have explained Alaska’s Weather Weirding to two different siblings, and what can I say? I mean, I pay far more attention to what is going on in their neck of the woods than they do, and here I sit in South Dakota. If it were me, I would at least be curious enough to see what was up with the crazy weather!
    I was aware close to fifteen years ago that Alaska Natives were being effected by climate change, that they were losing their subsistence lifestyle due to loss of ice and permafrost, losing the ground right out from under them due to erosion. Still yet to hit the radar of those sitting right there, though. When the people you care about don’t care about at least some of the things you do, then relationships become strained to the point of being nearly impossible. So, I continue to talk about the weather, and for me, that is a good enough gauge to see where people stand. And so far, besides my partner and the faceless people online, I stand alone.
    My fear is that we are going to die a death of a thousand cuts, because NO ONE is going to change anything until there is absolutely no other choice. I am of the opinion we have been in collapse for quite a while now, but with a disaster here, a disaster of another sort there, things happening at different rates in different places, well, it’s too easy to look the other way, to say ‘this is normal’. It seems most people have to experience something directly, something big enough to knock them out of their malaise-induced stupor, and that thing increasingly seems to be weather-related. For us it was the drought.
    At some point, all of the variables are going to converge, and it’s not going to matter who was right. It’s only a matter of time before everyone, even those far removed from industrial civilization, feels the effects of collapse. My bet is on Mother Nature.

    @Godofredo Aravena
    It sounds like you have lived a very decent and admirable life. I can relate to your feelings of not knowing how to tackle a world-wide problem/s from the position of ‘the little guy’. Even though I am from the big-bad-USA, I have been disenfranchised my entire life, but that gives me an advantage in some ways-fewer ties to the system, easier to extricate myself from said system, experience of destitution and thus no fear of it. Since the problem is on a global scale, some majority of people/nations would have to work together, but I just don’t see it happening. You ask a very valid question, and though there may not be a good answer now, the fact that you are asking it will likely mean that when the time comes, you will know the right thing to do.
    Best wishes, and thank you for the article.

  • B9K9, no offense but if anyone commenting here embodies “the self assured belief that only ‘the smartest people in the world get it'” you would have to be in their company.

    What evidence is there that TPTB get it? I see a lot of really stupid ideas like colonizing Mars and living in bunkers that are simply impracticle. Gated living is tenuous as well.

    Frankly, it seems to me that if there are any PTB who get it, they would be scared to death. There’s not going to be any escape for anyone, not for very long anyway.

    Plus, the few people I know who might be construed as genuine 1% really, truly are too stupid and/or too ideological to get it. They don’t want their world to come to an end and have their mansions turn into war bunkers and their yachts turn into gunboats, anymore than the formerly middle class want to give up their ATV’s and televisions and lawns.

    The belief in magic is in our DNA, and the PTB are just as smitten. It’s not a question of smarts. Look at how many highly intelligent people are in total denial (Freeman Dyson), newly in denial (Paul Linus, Lovelock), or partially in denial (just about every climate scientist and biologist in the world). Otherwise they wouldn’t be churning out these ridiculously optimistic reports about averting the collapse of civilization and extinction.

    While I’m at it, I find this inaccurate:

    “…it’s not sufficient to just accept the possibility of NTE, but it’s also critical to perform in the pity party pageant. Conforming to this litmus test means that one must embrace the mantle of unique, misunderstood genius, which all others must affirm as the world thus crumbles.”

    I mean, I’m glad you’re amused. But I see neither a “pity party pageant” nor conformity, nor people exhibiting the “mantle of unique, misunderstood genius”, and certainly no affirmation of anyone as such (with the possible exception of BtD, who is fucking brilliant).

    But as for everyone else, are you sure you’re not accidentally looking in the mirror?

  • Thanks, ogardener. A little confirmation, even in the most hopeless of circumstances, is a human need. Your *knowledge* of the land is of great value for us who know little or nothing, and only go by feelings.

    The climate in my neck of the woods is the complete opposite of yours. Said to be returning to an earlier epoch with around two inches of rain annually. I personally harvest around 99% of our gray water. No organic material is discarded. I even harvested the snow last winter, piling it up on fallow garden beds. Results far less encouraging that expected. I’m told that one has to combine many such remedies, importantly, slowing down rainwater runoff and directing it where required.

    I think that if humans were graded on a scale of zero to 100 on how sustainably we have used the land, we’d be lucky to rate a 5.

    Best of luck with what you’re doing.

    @ Pat

    I love your thing with that train, and the gentle honesty of your outlook.

    Some people scoff at any position that is not in line with brutish Social Darwinism. We are informed that this is reality, and all else is fantasy. Not to worry. They could be right. But we’re going to follow our own direction, aren’t we?

    Although there are disciplines that would help humans communicate and better resolve difference, these are shunned. We could design our world far better than we do, and in such a way as to weather many a storm. But we don’t, and perhaps can’t.

    I don’t believe there is a single person, plant or animal that can’t “teach” us something useful. So I, like you, would appreciate a little less hammering about the head, and a little more acceptance of whatever “nonsense” anybody has to offer.

  • @Gail says “What evidence is there that TPTB get it? Plus, the few people I know who might be construed as genuine 1% really, truly are too stupid and/or too ideological to get it.”

    Gail, we come from the same general socio-economic background, and know people who by any definition of the word are “1%”, however, this most certainly does not make them part of the PTB. IOW, F500 execs, white shoe law firm partners, judges, etc are no more part of the PTB than you or I.

    The PTB are the ones who spent years laying the groundwork for passage of both the Fed reserve act & 16th amendment. They’re the ones behind the 1947 Nat’l security act. They’re the ones that crafted the creation of FISA & the Patriot act.

    Curtis posted this link above that spells out exactly the who, what, where & when:

    Hedges has sniffed it out, but probably really cannot believe his worst nightmares are just the beginning. Today, Mueller admitted the FBI has already been using drones for domestic surveillance.

    In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king; I’m no more of a seer than I happen to be hanging out in a sand box. There are multitudes of different sources that are way ahead of me in all regards.

    All you have to do is stop giving yourself a self-congratulatory attagirl, stop thinking that people who have made money conforming to established protocols are somehow the elite, and start thinking like those that sit in the upper echelons of DC.

  • @ Gail, awww, you’re making me blush. And look at you—that pummeling didn’t disturb your stride a bit! No way I could do as much as you do. :)

    pat says: …sitting on the train heading over the cliff ordering cocktails and hors d’oeuvres…

    If we’re fucked, as the doomers allege,
    Here’s my stone cold sober pledge:
    You bet I’ll defuse
    My panic with booze
    Until we go over the edge.

    BadlandsAK says: My bet is on Mother Nature.

    Place your bet on how doom’s die is cast:
    How we’ll get there, and also how fast;
    Whatever your views,
    You’re going to lose,
    Because, of course, “Nature Bets Last.”

  • I’ve been monitoring the temps in the High Arctic for the last several months. Now that the Arctic Summer has arrived, it’s all getting VERY interesting. As you all may know, there is far more Arctic Sea Ice at the present moment compared to this date last year. That doesn’t mean that we won’t catch up and make a new record for minimum ice in September. Anyhow, Inuvik in the Northwest Territories of Canada is forecasting their high tomorrow (Thursday) to be 82F. Their “normal” high for this date is 62F. They sit just short of the 69th parallel north latitude. But that’s not all folks… the forecast high for Friday is 90F!!! Investigate it on the web, if you don’t believe me. Granted, the extended outlook is forecasting a cool-down. But this “spike” is just a precursor of the “new normal.” The slow motion train wreck of Humanity is in progress… and I am covering my eyes!

  • @Pilot 17,

    Interesting, but regarding more sea ice than last year, this can be deceptive because thinner ice can be more easily distributed over a broader area. Much of the ice has been pounded and pushed around by the persistent Arctic cyclone, so actual volumetric ice determinations are difficult.

  • Good story and comments on the persistent arctic cyclone (PAC-2013) that has been churning away in the arctic for several weeks now. It has been very cold in the arctic, but the physical forces (from this cyclone) have been battering the thin, salty ice ice. Now, here comes a heat wave. This will be… interesting. As has been mentioned previously, Neven’s site is a wonderful wealth of information & worth checking daily, especially in the coming months. Also, he recently started a forum for more detailed discussions (link is on the right, at the top, inside the picture of the earth).

    As goes the ice, so go we…


  • Ice voyeurism… bookmark this & click ‘next’ to get the latest.


    The pic is a mosaic. You can zoom in on quadrants to see where the slushie is forming and where the ice is still solid. It needs to be pretty clear for this to work, but it is truly awe inspiring and beautiful. This is a good site to watch the spectacle unfold…

  • Roger

    ‘The building is on fire and all the exits are blocked.’

    The only way is to stop conceiving of yourself as inhabiting a building, and becoming the fire.

    Works for me.

  • To Bailey…

    You are absolutely correct! In my previous “blog” I was referring (to square kilometers of ice). I failed to mention VOLUME of sea ice. This is a HUGE player in the annual outcome as “thick” and “old” sea ice are being flushed out the Fram Strait.

  • ulvfugl,

    Thanks for the video links. Very interesting. Neither, of course, say that near term human extinction is an inevitability but I admit that the rapidity of the change we’re driving is exceedingly worrying. It is, perhaps, that fact that concerns me about some tipping point being reached before too long, but that isn’t certain. The science moves on and we learn more each day. An example, perhaps, is that the second video uses some old data about the time lag between temperature and CO2 release (which amplifies the warming) being 800 years (though there were large error bars in that number), when more recent research suggests that the two may be coincident, when error bars are taken into account, or only a few centuries. I’m not mentioning that to bring comfort but it was a “fact” used to help show the larger importance of methane, in that second video, and it turns out to be probably wrong. That second video also talks about sea level rise only being a major problem over a time scale of millennia, unlike Oliver Tickell’s piece.

    I note from the first video that there have been abrupt changes in temperature, perhaps similar to what is going on now, in the distant past but life did not completely die out, since here we are. Likewise, there is, as yet, no scientific basis for thinking that this time it’s different (again, I point out that I’m not saying any of us here will get through it).

    I don’t think Mark Cochrane is irrelevant as he is an active climate scientist who is trying to be highly objective, though he is very concerned about the situation. I don’t think Malcolm Light’s paper is irrelevant because it alone provided the date for extinction that keeps getting repeated in the blogosphere, as though it were a scientific fact (as Michael C Ruppert mentioned on his latest show). We have a lot to be concerned about and we each need to consider our response to a probably rapidly changing environment but certain extinction has no meaningful response other than business as usual (which, for a few people living lightly, isn’t a bad thing) or worse. That could exacerbate an already precarious situation, perhaps being a self-fulfilling prophecy.

  • Annie, and others who are new or returning after a spot away – This is now a two post a day site unless Guy has changed his policy and I missed it – which is why I am responding to you now and didn’t earlier. The two posts a day can be frustrating, but with the help of a psychologist or psychiatrist one can learn to deal with frustration. It has made the site more interesting as no one can take over the discussion. Despite being a former frequent poster in the past, I value the rule.

    As for “Yeah, and trust me, Lisa, psychologists/psychiatrists would have a field day on this site!” The question is not are we sick in the head, the question is are the facts that Guy presents or the guys at Arctic News Blog spot present correct.

    See Guys article at the top right of the page on climate change summary and update and this article https://arctic-news.blogspot.ca/p/global-extinction-within-one-human.html

    Psychiatrists/psycholgists can help you change how you think about things, they can help you plumb your past to understand your own thinking, but they cannot change physics. For instance there are temperatures humans cannot survive at. Per wiki on their entry on wet bulb temps “A sustained wet-bulb temperature exceeding 35 °C is likely to be fatal even to fit and healthy people, unclothed in the shade next to a fan; at this temperature we switch from cooling the skin (losing heat to the environment), to warming it.[7] As of 2010 wet-bulb temperatures only very rarely exceeded 30 °C anywhere.” In places where it is dry humans can survive at higher temps, but the point is that there are LIMITS to the conditions in which humans can survive. You can’t psychoanalyze facts away. You can’t psychoanalyze CO2 to make it cause less warming. You can’t psychoanalyse the ground to produce more oil and the fact that we are fracking is testament to the principle that humans pick low hanging fruit first. The fact that we are now producing the hard to produce oil from fracking and deep ocean oil is testament to the low hanging fruit principle. To late to point that problem out to the oil industry. It might seem good that Peak Oil is upon us, but in fact it means that to extend industrial civ we have to extract the worst polluting oil coal and gas. And once that is gone there will be nothing to power the grid so the world’s nuclear plants will no longer be cooled and any not decommissioned will melt down.

    One of the things analysis can be used for is to help people understand when they are in denial. However if the analyst is in denial on the same subject as the person to be counseled they are useless. It might seem that those of us who have come to accept the coming doom are somehow sick. For myself I came to get comfortable with death at an early age, becoming comfortable with extinction was just an extension. Should I go to an analyst and tell them to get me in the normal state, afraid of death and in denial about mortality. I should hope you don’t suggest that.

    What you need to do is read the links I mentioned and others posted by “doomers” here and decide if they say what we say they say. Last summer was full of scientists being surprised that the warming on the ground and especially in the Arctic was going much faster than their models suggested it would. The level of scientific surprise was astounding. They don’t need analysts, they need new models, but new models would point out our impending doom and they can’t deal with that. Since most analysts couldn’t either they are useless to help the scientists get over their surprise.

    Finally we are all doomers, for we have all had a part in bringing this planet to this state. The few who acknowledge doom are not doomers for saying it. We are all doomers for driving our cars, consuming lots of goods, etc. The Oil and Coal and Gas companies who encouraged us to use more and more are doomers. Doomers are ones who create doom, not the ones who are unafraid to name it.

  • @KathyCassandra

    Tremendous post. Clear, concise, well and forcefully stated.

    Which, to the vast vast VAST majority of the populace, would have the effect (as Vonnegut once eloquently put it) of a banana cream pie dropped from three feet.

    So many books come to mind which outline these mass psychological forces that have and have always had humanity in their death grip. Normalcy Bias, the Discount Rate, and Social Inhibition, to name three.

    These forces have always been with us. It is the reason nearly all of human history is a hybrid construct…half aggressive Cacophonous Clown Carnival and half Murderous Charnel House.

    But more than the individual attributes is the one overarching principle that answers the question of why human history is a murderous clownish charnel house when most people, in their individual lives, would never consider doing the “evil”.

    Because almost all human beings (perhaps this comes from the evolutionary result of surviving the keyhole humanity was forced through tens of thousands of years ago, but who really knows why), when ordered to by a sociopath in authority, will line up like plastic toy soldiers to do whatever they are told by whatever sociopath they are told by, provided that sociopath is in authority.

    The Milgrim Experiments. The Stanford Experiments. Nazi Germany. Corpzi America. And most every nation in between, before and since, though we and the Nazis have certainly taken the principle to a whole new level, thanks to marketing, advertising, focus grouping, mass and behavioral psychology, among others.

    First the Nazis, now WE have built a better mindtrap and the world (at least the world’s top 0.01% aristocratic sociopaths and those aristocrats who emulate them) have beat a path to our door.

    To see through it has little to do with raw intelligence, though I am certain it helps, because I have known PhD’s who couldn’t vault those mental high, ever narrowing canyon walls of Permissible Discourse, and I have known high school diploma-holders who could do so.

    As an aside, this group to which we belong is probably the most exclusive group any of us will ever belong to, yet it is an exclusivity that comes with no benefits in the society at large.

    Quite the opposite, for we are the people who in virtually any other age would be hung by the neck until dead for our beliefs and our (as society, which is to say the Ruling Sociopaths who determine what the sheep believe and will fight to the death to defend, see it) pathetic abilities.

    In the larger sense they are pathetic, for we can cement few loyalties, generate few passions, raise little consciousness beyond people who aren’t similarly disposed already.

    The sad truth that the sociopathic caspitalists have always known is that one doesn’t convince people with fact, one convinces them by SELLING them and all the techniques that implies. With charisma, authority, fear, personal discomfort withheld or laid on, marketing and the totalitarian science of “public relations”. Sad but completely and verifiably true. facts and truth are actually just about the weakest things in the toolkit of someone who wishes to convince anyone of anything.

    And as virtually everyone here can attest, we are scattered so few and far between that it is unlikely that we, even when seeking them out, would find even a single other like us without the Internet.

    None of that matters, as you say Kathy, we are dealing with brutal realities here, not just the environmental realities, but the economic and sociopolitical which are doubly outside the narrow walls of what we are permitted to speak about without suffering consequences.

    But attacking the messengers is a time-honored distracytionary strategy employed by sociopathic aristocrats and the sheep who adore them, and we are all prisoners of our own internal psychologies, no doubt about it.

    Reality is reality, though, but sophistry is sophistry and so you can expect the string pullers and the sheep who follow them to step up all attacks on those who dare to stray outside Permissible Thinking, including the reality that, just as those who saw through Hitler from the very start, we are the tiniest minority, ridiculed by all the sheep who stand on a precipice of horror wrought by their own pathological obedience and inability to consider thoughts outside the ever-narrowing Permissible Range.

    Again, reality is reality, and attacking the messenger to damage the credibility of the message is as old a concept as humanity, I have no doubt.

    I also have no doubt that our State-Sanction Psychological Priesthood would indeed have a field day with us “weirdos”.

    Gather some information on old Soviet punitive psychiatry from the last half of the 21st Century and the template becomes obvious.

    “Are you trying to tell me, Comrade, that you know better than Comrades Lenin and Stalin? How can you presume so? What delusions of grandiosity makes you think that?”

    See how easy it is?

  • “Are you trying to tell me, Comrade, that you know better than Comrades Lenin and Stalin? How can you presume so? What delusions of grandiosity makes you think that?”

    Many on this blog have said this very thing, except they’ve substituted Comrade McPherson for Lenin and/or Stalin so it reads as follows:

    “Are you trying to tell me, Comrade, that you know better than Comrades McPherson and Wasdell? How can you presume so? What delusions of grandiosity makes you think that?”

    This space has become a simulacrum of the larger system in which it is nested. The same mechanisms at play in the larger system are at play here. It keeps repeating because the root is always, without fail, left unmolested. Obviously, there’s a strong impulse to be sure. Conviction is a driving force; out there and in here. As above, so below. Throw in a sizable dash of exceptionalism, and you have a perfect, if not onerous, storm of righteousness.

    For the record, who is attacking you? I don’t see it. That persecution complex keeps rearing its ugly head. If enemies don’t exist, they must be created.

  • For any psychiatrist, psychologist, or anyone else, to understand the people here and why they are here, would require that they understand the thinking that leads to the NTE conclusion.

    I very much doubt that there ARE any psychiatrists or psychologists who are capable of grasping that thinking. Quite a few people who have been here a long time still don’t get it. People like Tony, above, is a good example of someone struggling with it.

    It’s probably the toughest thing that anyone, ever, has had to come to terms with in the whole history of the human species, so it’s not surprising that people have a hard time, both understanding the science, which means getting a grip on many different disciplines and making many cross connections, and then, changing your whole mental and emotional and spiritual paradigm, to cope with what you learn.

    It’s extremely demanding. That’s why people talk about suicide. It’s an existential crisis of the highest order. if you have not experienced it as such then you do not know what the fuck you are talking about. If you have not experienced it as such, then you are not qualified, not in any position, to pass judgement, upon those who have a deeper insight.

    If you’ve spent your whole life living in a cultural story that promises improved living standards, technological progress, growing prosperity, the virtues of a consumer lifestyle, the ‘backwardness’ and inferiority of ‘primitive’ people, the superiority of ‘civilisation’ over wilderness, the ‘savagery’ of nature, all that kind of stuff, and suddenly you are forced to do a U turn and you’re told there is not going to BE any future like that any more, and all that stuff you were told was lies, propaganda and illusions…. well, it takes a little while to get over the shock and to find some new way of seeing your place in the scheme of things.

    I don’t know of a single psychiatrist or psychologist on Earth who has been through that experience. If there is one, perhaps he or she would like to step forward and make a comment here.

  • @ Maecenas

    I think you are kinda’ saying some of the same things that B9K9 is saying in identifying the reality of the world’s power structures (although each of us is responsible for our response – B9K9 seeks to make a profit from the collapse).

    Even those of us who think we know “what’s really going on” are powerless to do anything about it. Just like the few Germans who knew from the beginning that Hitler was a madman.

    We are too few.

    This blog has borne witness to many a lamenting member of the Resistance that has come to terms with the futility of their life’s work. In the good ol’ days, Resistance was Exodus, just pack up and leave. But now, there is nowhere to run.

    @ B9K9:

    You say: “The PTB are the ones who spent years laying the groundwork for passage of both the Fed reserve act & 16th amendment. They’re the ones behind the 1947 Nat’l security act. They’re the ones that crafted the creation of FISA & the Patriot act.”

    I guess you are referring to the Illuminati (Bilderberg Group, House of Rothschild, etc) and their diabolical plans (tampering with children’s vaccines, flouride in our water, chem trails, etc).

    Well, it would seem, even if true, that TPTB at least have the right idea! The solution is for 90% of the Earth’s population to die AND make sure to properly dismantle the toxic infrastructure of industrial civilization AND somehow restructure human behavior to live in harmony with nature in a sustainable way for a sustainable future (plant no crops, build no cities).

    If the only humans that have a plan to survive what’s coming are TPTB and their chosen few, then I guess the rest of us humans will have to make a choice: help them or resist them or do nothing.

    If the Resistance has a better plan, I’m willing to listen.

    @ Sisyphus

    I don’t think anyone here is being coerced or persecuted. In fact, Guy makes it clear that he encourages all voices to be heard. There is rarely a distinct song being sung here – everyone is playing their own instrument in a symphony of noise. One must focus to get any clear message!

    Obviously Guy has done his research and presented his conclusions here and that is the theme of this blog, his opinion that we are heading for NTE is the premise. Yes, there are those here suffering from a “sizable dash of exceptionalism” but all are welcome to express themselves here.

    Even if you don’t agree with NTE, do you not see the danger to our existance that Industrial Civilization presents? I mean, do you assume that we can keep growing the Earth’s population and the infrastructure to support it without dire consequences?

  • I’d say that the odds for survival are somewhere in the order of the odds for Edward Snowden living a peaceful, fear-free life. It’s made all the harder to bear because we can so clearly recognize Snowden’s realness and humanity even as the doors are closing on allowing such realness and humanity to be seen in the future. Let’s celebrate this moment, for it might never come again.

    But I speak from despair. The doors are closing on any kind of ability to speak freely. Even this forum: now you see it, now you don’t. We face a situation of unmitigated horror. But despair can cloud vision. It can get in the way of resistance.

    The surveillance state works in secret, putatively not to alert terrorists, but also to effectively make the public hypnotized (through Huxleyan distractions) and non resistant. What’s coming with climate is secret too. You know it’s there, but can’t bring yourself to believe it’s urgency when everything around you pretends to be normal. The Emperor has not clothes, but, hey, if everybody else says he has on clothes, maybe there’s something wrong with your eyes.

    Then, wham, we have an Edward Snowden, and we know for SURE that the state has us inescapably boxed in. Climate meltdown and NTE will no doubt also come as an all too sudden revelation to the many, for which no one is prepared. This blog generally makes the point that we are already boxed in here as well. With no possible alternatives except those elucidated by B9K9.

    There are young kids resisting in Turkey and Brazil, just as they have been doing recently elsewhere. Is their resistance futile? I hear a yes. But can we be sure? I propose that we can never be completely sure of anything. Some things have overwhelming likelihood–like the sun is going to rise tomorrow. Even so, a scientific mind would hold back on 100,000 percent certainty of that.

    When it comes to the overwhelming finality of the NSA or NTE reality, I would propose being somewhat less certain than that the sun will rise tomorrow. The likelihood is extreme, but you can’t be absolutely certain. And we can’t forget that whatever we prophesy (sp) gains a degree of energy toward being fulfilled. The energy could be miniscule, as in prophesying that the sun won’t rise tomorrow, but greater the more things are in the realm of the probable.

    So, whether I get slammed or not, thoroughly shown the error of my ways, I’ll straggle the fence between acceptance and resistance. You prepare for the worst (insofar as that is possible), but you don’t give up trying to avert it.

    One reason I see to try the latter is that the human endeavor, or rather the endeavor of civilization has been to choose the most destructive behaviors (by far) among a list of possible behaviors, many of which might save us in the foreseeable future.

    Basically, we’ve never been able to think globally instead of tribally. It’s not that we couldn’t think globally; it just either didn’t occur to our masters, or didn’t suit them, or both. The nation state seems to be at odds with global thinking. So is autocracy. Among our most egregious misunderstandings has been not to understand the need for governance based on the unity of watersheds. We have done almost nothing that we could do, that wouldn’t be physically or economically prohibitive to do, that would have saved us. As much as the physics of climate change, we have destroyed our options through a colossal deficit of imagination and global awareness.

    So what now? Tell he kids to pack up and g

  • I’d say that the odds for survival are somewhere in the order of the odds for Edward Snowden living a peaceful, fear-free life. It’s made all the harder to bear because we can so clearly recognize Snowden’s realness and humanity even as the doors are closing on allowing such realness and humanity to be seen in the future. Let’s celebrate this moment, for it might never come again.

    But I speak from despair. The doors are closing on any kind of ability to speak freely. Even this forum: now you see it, now you don’t. We face a situation of unmitigated horror. But despair can cloud vision. It can get in the way of resistance.

    The surveillance state works in secret, putatively, so as not to alert terrorists, but also to effectively make the public hypnotized (through Huxleyan distractions) and non resistant. What’s coming with climate is secret too. You know it’s there, but can’t bring yourself to believe it’s urgency when everything around you pretends to be normal. The Emperor has not clothes, but, hey, if everybody else says he has on clothes, maybe there’s something wrong with your eyes.

    Then, wham, we have an Edward Snowden, and we know for SURE that the state has us inescapably boxed in. Climate meltdown and NTE will no doubt also come as an all too sudden revelation to the many, for which no one is prepared. This blog generally makes the point that we are already boxed in here as well. With no possible alternatives except those elucidated by B9K9.

    There are young kids resisting in Turkey and Brazil, just as they have been doing recently elsewhere. Is their resistance futile? I hear a yes. But can we be sure? I propose that we can never be completely sure of anything. Some things have overwhelming likelihood–like the sun is going to rise tomorrow. Even so, a scientific mind would hold back on 100,000 percent certainty of that.

    When it comes to the overwhelming finality of the NSA or NTE reality, I would propose being somewhat less certain than that the sun will rise tomorrow. The likelihood is extreme, but less so than that the sun won’t come out tomorrow.

    We have done almost nothing that we could have within the realm of sustainability. Such things–like thinking globally, or thinking based on watersheds or democracy–did not suit the narrative of civilization, which is based on control, on divide and conquer. Our crisis derives more from stupidity than from physics.

    Like the kids in Turkey and Brazil, we could choose to resist (by doing the sustainable things bypassed by civilization) even if it tantamount to Sisyphus continually pushing a boulder up a hill only to have it roll down the other side.

  • The problem with the resisters in Brazil is the same as the OWS movement in US:

    They just want MORE! They are not resisting industrial civilization, they are resisting the inequity of the distribution of the spoils of industrial civilization! They are looking to be paid off. They want more bread, more circus. Give it to them and they will shut up and go home. So, in reality, they are complaining that the pie isn’t growing fast enough to keep up with their demands. They just want MORE!

    In Turkey however, we have a different story: A small group was protesting a developer that was tearing down green space:

    People rushed to the park to protest the demolition of the last green space in the heart of Istanbul that breathed life into the city — and its ever-growing façade of gray. What many people had previously ignored suddenly became a mass rally, disrupted when police attacked protesters with tear gas and pepper spray. The reasons that ordinary Turks have turned into gas-masked protestors traces back much farther than these last two weeks. Since the arrival of Erdogan’s ruling party, the AKP, a majority of Turks have worried about how their lives might shift toward a political system more similar to that of Iran than that of the West.

    So, the young Turks want to be more “Westernized” and secular rather than slip backwards into a theocratic dictatorship.

    If the young Turks are successful, how do think that will help bring down industrial civilization?

    No, the Real Resistance is the eco-terrorists around the world. The tree-spikers and the arsonists. The FBI has credited to eco-terrorism 300 million dollars in property damage from 2003 and 2008.

    What we need are protests in the street shouting:
    “Less! We want Less!”
    “Less for Everyone!”
    “Enough is Too Much!”
    “Poverty and Subsistence Living is Good!”
    Yeah, right.

  • Powerful opponents of eco-terrorism are mounting the nation’s most formidable campaign against the homegrown sabotage. But the crime wave they hope to quell — a 2½-year escalation of arsons and property destruction — subsided last summer, perhaps due to law enforcement crackdowns.

    A congressional subcommittee held a hearing on eco-terrorism last month in which lawmakers, keyed up about terrorists since the Sept. 11 attacks, likened America’s green underground to al-Qaida. An FBI official testified that the Earth Liberation Front and Animal Liberation Front had become the nation’s most active and destructive domestic terrorist groups.

    Eco-terrorism escalated across the nation in the late 1990s. Underground saboteurs, claiming to act on behalf of the natural world, repeatedly struck such enterprises as logging, skiing, genetic research, home building and auto sales. They are suspected in 69 major attacks since January 1999, including 14 in the Pacific Northwest.

    But serious cases of eco-terrorism took a precipitous plunge after July 16, when the Earth Liberation Front set fire to an oil company building in suburban Detroit. Since then, eco-terrorists have been tied to just six major crimes, compared to 21 during the same period last year. The last major act of eco-terrorism in the United States occurred more than two months ago, when the Earth Liberation Front set fire to a genetic research center under construction at the University of Minnesota, causing $630,000 damage.

  • @Sisyphus

    Thank you for illustrating my points both with rapid response and exemplary sophistry.

    Thank you for directly attacking the messenger with your ideas that I and the rest of us are merely nutjobs with persecution complexes, again illustrating my points better than I could ever dream.

    For the record, none of us are persecuted here and probably won’t be at least until 9/11 #2 and World War III, which will be, shall we say, racing to keep ahead of the environmental, especially as it pertains to agricultural output, as well as the economic and sociopolitical realities from the corner our species has painted itself into.

    That is, roughly, part of the dividing line between classical forms of totalitarianism and the new “soft” Inverted Totalitarianism being born today in America and the West.

    Once the Fantasy Bubble becomes technologically possible through Internet and 1000-channel Cable TV, TPTB can allow us to speak so long as our pennywhistle is drowned out by the Multi-Trillion Dollar Lie Machine.

    This will almost certainly change once this period of relative abundance ends and more Classical methods are required to keep the populace bottled up once full bellies aren’t so commonplace in the Western World anymore. But that is a likely future, not now, and so your straw men look better becasuse of it. Yes, no one is being persecuted overtly, except those like Manning and Snowden, who threaten to wake the cattle before they are in the chute where awareness can do no harm to TPTB.

    Further, your comic transposition of Comrade Stalin and Prof. McPherson, while a neat trick is nothing new and creates the false dichotomy so customary in public dialog these days. Why not? It’s how the TV teaches us to think and “debate” these days, so why shouldn’t you reach for this most commonplace of modern sophists’ tools?

    Know what the crucial difference is, that makes your sophists’ trick invalid? AUTHORITY. In comparing Stalin and McPherson you neglect that Stalin had complete authority over his subjects and McPherson has NONE over anyone, nor does he want any, nor does he enforce uniformity of opinion.

    My point was about obedience to AUTHORITY. In leaving that aspect out, your counter-point is irrelevant, misleading, and deceptive.

    But in the modern form of what passes for debate, you “landed a punch” and that was most important, wasn’t it?

    Again, this tactic is so easy to parrot and so commonplace and apparently exploits a crucial near-universal inability to differentiate between a kayak and an aircraft carrier when framed correctly (they are both boats, you say, so why quibble, eh?), these false dichotomies now permeate nearly every discussion. It’s something that almost anyone can learn to parrot, and in this regard, you have done well.

    But I feel compelled to reveal the sophistry and the personal attack masquerading as an actual substantial point. Which, by the way, would probably enjoy much success in most other public discussions, since the infantilization of our national dialog combined with the super-saturation delivery systems of modern technology has created, shall we say well worn psychological ruts which most would rather go down than fight the tide uphill against the Popular Will (really the top 0.01%’s will to prevent people from straying from the bounds of permissible thought).

    Sorry, and with all due respect, but you’re busted. Try again, if you like, but can you please do so without resorting to sophistry and common modern cable TV news-style misleading deception?


    Yes, I am echoing some of B9K9’s points because he’s right, IMO. I spent a lifetime studying human history, not just the top-down stuff, but the bottom-up and the histories of the defeated, though the volume of material is much less for the latter two.

    Yes, we are too few by several orders of magntiude, but more importantly, the reptile-brained psychological imperatives that drive our species…the same ones that drove us during all previous ages, make it a virtual impossibility that this was going to turn out any other way, whether extinction takes 30, 50, or even 5000 years for the last of us to be gone.

    I only mention the 5000 year possibility (VERY small probability) because I have learned never to underestimate what fearful slaves and serfs can accomplish, when driven by a Primary Sociopath and his Secondary Hench-o-paths (some of whom will only be going along to get along and keep the ol’ paycheck or whatever will pass for it, rolling in so they can feed their family, not that it will make a lick of difference to their victims)

    “A married man with a family will do anything for money.”

    This is also true of nearly everyone other than a very small minority of weirdos.

    Thus, I could see it being a relatively quick trip from seven billion to one MILLION, and a considerably slower and more agonizing, suffering-filled journey (except for the Rulers and Henchmen) from one million to zero.

    As I see it, the “job” of humanity, if it was to survive and create something other than the murderous clownish charnel house all of our history has been, was to somehow transcend our reptile brains to wahtever the next level might have been. Which we’ll never know, but whatever it was by necessity it would involve some reality where half of humanity didn’t live worse than Western World housepets, with all of us basically enslaved to wealthy sociopaths, even under the “soft” modern mevchanisms of perception management and discourse control.

    How’s that saying go? “Epic Fail!”

    A pity. I think most of us share the idea that humanity could have been so much more and lasted so much longer, but for our collective inability to deal with the sociopaths among us, particularly when they have wealth, aristocratic authority, and the self-control not to go out murdering people individually every week, but restrict their murderous sociopathic outlets to those actions performed “legally” by The State in their name and which they own.


    You are absolutely correct about psychiatry. I have no doubt it will be deployed against people with more force by The Rulers against dissenters as the belt tightens dramatically in the coming decades.

    To give the imprimatur of legitimacy, while legitimacy is still required, which will in yurn help keep the serfs and slaves docile and obedient. Same function as religion, but with much greater power since it is science-based (as Carl Sagan said, “Science is the magic that works.”) with millions of hours of marketing and other research behind it.

    As I am sure you know, it all rolls back to the brutal, elegant simplicity of the Reptile Brain, which is the driver of everything human, while our higher functions merely exist as lawyers, so to speak, rationalizing whatever the reptile has already decided to do.

    Science has pretty much confirmed this many times over, as does daily reality at the top, at the bottom, and everything in between.

  • Here is B9K9’s choice for “Best Idea to Make Money from Collapse:”

    ATCHISON, Kan. (AP) — After most of the world’s population is wiped off the map by a wayward meteorite or hail of nuclear missiles, the survival of the human race might just depend on a few thousand people huddled in recreational vehicles deep in the bowels of an eastern Kansas mine.

    That’s the vision of a California man who is creating what he calls the world’s largest private underground survivor shelter, using a complex of limestone caves dug more than 100 years ago beneath gently rolling hills overlooking the Missouri River.

    “I do believe I am on a mission and doing a spiritual thing,” said Robert Vicino, who has purchased a large portion of the former U.S. Army storage facility on the southeast edge of Atchison, about 50 miles northwest of Kansas City, Mo. “We will certainly be part of the genesis.”

    Before it comes time to ride out Armageddon or a deadly global pandemic, though, Vicino says the Vivos Survival Shelter and Resort will be a fun place for members to take vacations and learn assorted survival skills to prepare them for whatever world-changing catastrophe awaits.

  • Ulvfugl, while many people end up thinking only in the framework of their profession – some do step out. Most American dentists will NOT question flouride in the water supply BUT some do. Who could think of a more unlikely person to have written the most clear cut books on the 911 coverup than David Ray Griffin. per wiki David Ray Griffin (born August 8, 1939) is a retired American professor of philosophy of religion and theology. Along with John B. Cobb, Jr., he founded the Center for Process Studies in 1973, a research center of Claremont School of Theology which seeks to promote the common good by means of the relational approach found in process thought.[1] Griffin has published a number of books on the subject of the September 11 attacks, suggesting that there was a conspiracy involving some elements of the United States government.[2]

    But to address this in specific you said “I don’t know of a single psychiatrist or psychologist on Earth who has been through that experience. If there is one, perhaps he or she would like to step forward and make a comment here.” To that I offer up David Wasdell of the Arctic Methane Emergeny Group, who has offered up the most dire of warnings – http://www.meridian.org.uk/About/Director/Pro-About_the_Director1.htm
    He bio lists as ongoning activities – Psychotherapeutic practice (analytic/integrative) with individuals presenting in life-crisis.
    Anyone not familiar with his warnings can go to youtube and type in his name.

  • There should be simplified list of major concepts that point to NTE at NBL

    My Big Picture Favs:

    1# All the major report/projections in the last decade or so have been Wrong by using ‘best outcome’ input stats.

    I think I’ll puke if I see one more headline report that says scientists are ‘shocked’, shocked, that the numbers came in worse than they imagined on climate change.

    Current climate models are shaped by grant funding politics and ‘you can’t handle the truth’ psychology by scientists and policy makers. The Public doesn’t want the Truth and probably wouldn’t recognize it if it kneed them in the collective groin.

    2# All the numbers concerning climate change are going in the ‘wrong’ direction.

    Amen Brothers and Sisters, amen.

    CO2 going up, not down. Methane going up, not down, ocean acidity is going up, not down…etc.

    Example: The record high temperatures being set are STOMPING on record low temperatures being set globally.

    It’s not like they are swinging back and forth and canceling each other out over time. If I got a dollar for every record high and lost a dollar for every record low, I’d be rich, very rich.

    3# The sheer rate of increase in greenhouse gases compared to the prehistoric record

    The CO2 has been this high before, yes we get it. (cough,point belabored, cough)

    It has never been this high this FAST, ever.

    This will have a direct effect on the Lag Time from increase in atmospheric gases >>> to the temperature registering as an increased global mean temperature.

    Example: Your blood pressure gradually goes up to the Danger Zone over ten years (the ‘silent’ killer scenario) VS someone injects a drug into your vein that brings it up to the Danger Zone in about a minute. Think you’d notice? Not that observant? Strokes will do that to ya.

    4# The temperatures over land masses are much higher than the global average temperature increase.

    The Global temp going up 4 degrees C means that over the interior of large land masses, it will go up MUCH higher like 6-7-8-9-10 degrees.

    Most of the planet is Water, that’s not where people live and grow food.

    Interior land masses, where people live and grow food and where it is hot and dry NOW will enter the Zone of Death. No kidding.

    Example: Record heat forces Australia to add new colors to temperature map

    5# Single reports and specific numbers are not the Big Picture

    Example: Guy say that the hole in the hull that will sink the boat is about 10 feet long. Someone comes along and says,”Ha, it’s really 9.4786 feet so Guy is wrong thus NTE couldn’t be right!!! I win,I win,I win,I win,I win,!!!

    Amazing how often this desperate incoherent thought process pops up here.

    This is stupidity or trolls (or stupid trolls).

    Their brain tumor is 1.8374562 inches in diameter, not 2″, so they guess they will Live!!!

    Hurray they say, proof of concept!

  • I’ve posted a very personal essay. It’s here.

  • I think we should make our own rule that whenever Guy puts up a new essay we can post all we want to on the old essay! I’m going to give it a try and see if I get deleted!

    this my third post today on this thread, I thinnk.

  • Yes, let’s “post at will” on the old essays – since nobody is reading them anyway!

  • When the urge to post unfettered overwhelms me, I find comfort in an old essay and post away!

    You could probably pretty much say whatever you want!

  • yes Roger, it could be more like a chat room!

    market is crashing, silver is under $20 an ounce, gold is under $1,300.

    I’ve always said that all this talk of 4C is moot because we will never see it – humans will be long gone!

    First we will see economic collapse and widespread wars and the total collapse of society. Cannibals running wild…

  • This morning, gold prices crashed through $1,300 an ounce, hitting the lowest level in two years. At $1,300, gold is now down 30% from its peak. And all investors who finally bought into the gold mania over the past couple of years are now underwater.

  • What does it say about the economy when people are selling their gold?

  • Have you seen the interest rate on the 10 year note? It’s going up and that’s making the dollar more valuable against gold. If we are back to a deflationary environment, cash becomes more valuable than any other asset.

  • @ Kathy C.

    Thanks for pointing that out, I hadn’t noticed Wasdell was offering psychotherapy. He’s definitely one of the good guys in, imo, but he’s still mistaken, in that he still talks about ‘stabilising the climate’ which is nonsense, in my estimation, a meaningless term and impossible to accomplish.

    I didn’t think of psychotherapists, because, afaik, in UK, anyone can call themselves a psychotherapist. I could be mistaken. But even the registered individuals belonging to reputable bodies only have fairly lightweight credentials, compared with psychiatrists who have to become medical doctors first before going on to specialise in psychiatry.

    @ Speak Softly

    Fantastic list. Yes, that’s exactly it. Each point could be developed with much detail.

    Like the heating is proportionately much greater at the poles which makes for great effects re feedbacks, albedo, weather and methane and sea level and ocean currents and wild life.

    Twelve plants and five animals produce 90% of the world’s food supply. Six corporations provide 90% of the world’s food supply. That’s what feeds the world’s cities and towns.

    Financial collapse, system collapse, world war, nuclear war, collapse of civilisation, that all stops, most people die in about a month. Some scavenge around, last longer, but there’s all kinds of hazards to consider. Fit, young, vigorous, keep going, but all of civilisation ends.

    People who survive longer are those who know how to feed themselves, from stuff they can grow, or fish they can catch, or wild food they can gather,etc, who are lucky to be in a good place for one reason or another.

    Warming and climate chaos continues anyway, so global ecosystems still collapse.

    But if the methane spike does the 10 deg C in a decade thing, while the hundreds of Fukes meltdown, there aren’t any good places.

  • @Speak Softly

    You might consider changing your online handle to ‘Carries a Big Stick’!! You are wickedly smart and just sarcastic enough that it burns, but not too much. I thought your hardware/software post a while back was excellent.
    I see no exceptionalism, righteousness, conviction, persecution complexes, ideology, etc…among people here. Tossing labels and attempting to psychoanalyze those who have accepted NTE, only shows that reality is TOO STARK, things are happening on TOO MANY FRONTS, and no ONE PERSON can keep up with all of it.
    What I do see is a random sampling of people who for whatever reason have payed attention to a different picture than the majority of society. I’ve never followed science, but I knew what exponential growth and tipping points were, and when I saw things were being reported that we had started crossing thresholds, I found NBL. That was less than a year ago, and things have become much more serious in that short time. Does it mean I’m crazy for doing the math and coming to the NTE conclusion? It doesn’t matter what anybody ‘thinks’ of me for thinking that, the proof will be in the radiation pudding…

  • okay, I apologize, my venture into rule breaking, though brief, is now over.


  • (ala Columbo) “Eh, lemme get dis straight.” We have Fukushima still spewing radiation into the air and sea (where it travels directly to the US, and the rest of the northern hemisphere) in increasing amounts, AND NOW (to “box us in” over here):


    Largest methane seep in the world found off the eastern coast of U.S.

    June 19, 2013 – SOUTH CAROLINA – On the seafloor just off of the U.S. East Coast lies a barely known world, explorations of which bring continual surprises. As recently as the mid-2000s, practically zero methane seeps — spots on the seafloor where gas leaks from the Earth’s crust — were thought to exist off the East Coast; while one had been reported more than a decade ago, it was thought to be one of a kind. But in the past two years, additional studies have revealed a host of new areas of seafloor rich in seeps, said Laura Brothers, a research geologist at the U.S. Geological Survey. New technologies have allowed scientists to keep locating new seeps, including one that may be the largest in the world. The findings have changed geologists’ understanding of the processes taking place beneath the seafloor. “These newly discovered [seafloor] communities show that there is much more seafloor methane venting then we previously thought, and suggests that there are many more seeps out there that we don’t know about,” Brothers said.

    An even larger, previously unknown vent was found off the coast of Virginia, in research by Steve Ross, a scientist at the University of North Carolina at Wilmington, and Sandra Brooke, a scientist at Florida State University. Discovered near the Norfolk submarine canyon, the vent is the largest in the Atlantic, and possibly in all of the world’s oceans, Ross told LiveScience. North America’s continental shelf, the underwater edge of the continent that borders the Atlantic Ocean basin, is littered with underwater canyons etched by rivers thousands of years ago when the region was above sea level. These canyons remain little explored, Ross said. But he is helping to change that through his work aboard the Okeanos Explorer, a ship owned by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which for the last three years has been working to explore these submarine canyons. Scientists locate the seeps by producing images of methane gas bubbles (and where they originate) using multi-beam sonar, which calculates the amount of time and distance it takes for sound waves to travel from the ship to the bubbles and back. The same technique also produces detailed imagery of the seafloor. Remote-operated vehicles can then be dispatched to bring back photos of the ocean bottom, Ross said. All of these techniques are being used to document the gas seeps, he said.

    Further imaging of the seafloor by the Okeanos Explorer last fall revealed another three gas seeps southeast of Nantucket, Mass., at a maximum depth of 1 mile (1.6 kilometers) below the ocean surface. Along with several new findings that haven’t been published yet, these newfound seeps add up to a total of about eight regions venting methane off of the East Coast, Ross said. However, Carolyn Ruppel, a researcher at the USGS, advised against declaring a specific number of seeps found, since this total is constantly increasing and since the determination of what constitutes an individual “seep” can be vague. “We expect many more to be discovered,’ Ruppel said. Much of this methane appears to be coming from methane gas hydrates, a crystallized form of methane stored in frigid sediment under the relatively high pressures of the deep ocean, Brothers said. Previously it wasn’t thought that a significant amount of this methane would be released from these deposits, which only give up their methane when weakened by lower pressures or rising temperatures. It’s unclear why some of these hydrates are producing methane gas, but it’s not a huge amount and unlikely to be enough to currently attract commercial interest, Brothers said. –Yahoo News