Presentation in Boulder, Colorado

I delivered a presentation on climate chaos in Boulder, Colorado on the evening of Wednesday, 16 October 2013. The result is embedded below, with thanks to hosts and facilitators Jenny Ferry, Jenelle Green, Dan Green, Deanna Meyer, and Patrick O’Leary (and also thanks and apologies to those I’ve doubtless forgotten).

Please excuse the error. It wasn’t the Undersecretary of Navy who predicted human extinction in a few decades in June 1986: It was Robert Watson of NASA to the Senate Environment Subcommittee on Environmental Pollution.

An article appeared in The College Fix after the presentation: DOOMSDAY PROFESSOR SAYS HUMANS EXTINCT BY 2040. It’s quite poorly done.

Even “better” is the inaccurate article at The Daily Caller: Doomsday professor: WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE BY 2040 (from global warming). The comments are hilarious.

An overview is provided by Sam Carana at the Arctic Methane Emergency Group. It’s here.

Comments 163

  • @uf

    I’m not saying the radioactive material will magically vanish, I’m pointing out the logical fallacies in Guys reasoning. It’s quite different from saying that the nuclear materials will not be 100% decommissioned, technically, in time, to they’re all going into meltdown, when the lights go out… which we have no clue how long that will be, or the process which will come about to make that happen.

    There are far too many unknowns to be making these absolute statements. They don’t hold up when decent reasoning is applied.

  • Let’s imagine a scenario, for the sake of discussion.

    It’s 2015, and the arctic loses all sea ice in the summer. Methane plumes have now been recorded in record numbers, and size. The DOD informs the president that climate apocalypse is near, and motions must be put in place to safely shut down the reactors within the US.

    How could this possibly be done?! We’re all going to die!!! wait, are we?

    Okay, so people would be forced to consume less. Check. The grid would have to compensate with using coal, gas, whatever else to meet energy NEEDS (not demand). Check. An assessment of time to decomission would be put in place. Emergency funds would be allocated towards their decomission.

    So we’re looking at as many as possible, using the 5+ year method. The remaining are perhaps entombed, or simply not focused on. Are you trying to tell me that we don’t have the 5 or so years to go through this process? Is it just… one day we wake up and there is no electricity, and ALL 400 sites are going into meltdown?

    I just don’t see a reasonable scenario where this plays out. Paint me a picture to how this could play through.

  • If you say so, chief. I’m going to enjoy my day now. Take care.

  • I say this as a layman with a rudimentary understanding of nuclear power:

    Regarding the reactor decommissioning problem, the real question is, given the number and kinds of nuclear power plants, as well as the amounts and kinds of stored, used fuel, what are the odds that a series of very serious reaction events will occur when the grid starts to fail? The devil — of course — is in the details, but I suspect the prospect is worse than you imagine, muffleupagus.

    I’ll be running these questions by some fairly knowledgable folks I know, some nuclear physicists, others former workers for the NEC, and see what I can find out.

  • Here is a nuclear industry webpage on decommissioning. Note the costs and time frames for various sorts of reactors going through the process. One needs to read between the lines a bit to see several unanswered questions as the articles are presented in a seemingly “just the facts, M’am” fashion – one that does not speak directly to our present concerns, but is meant to belay the public’s usual fears. The nuclear industry is quite aware of the public’s fears.

    [add your own www’s here] .world-nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Nuclear-Wastes/Decommissioning-Nuclear-Facilities/#.Umqi6qUvy12

    This was from an entirely cursory web inquiry.

  • Sorry to repost, but this comment should be on this thread.

    In the meantime a 7.3 earthquake has hit off Honshu. That is a major quake that surely shook the swamp under the jacked-up-pool in Unit 4. Status reports should be arriving any moment now….

    re decommissioning vs dismantling…

    There is always option #3: deserting. Arnie Gundersen expects this to happen if TEPCO isn’t able to set the new world record for pickup sticks next month. If something goes wrong (cough, cough, gag!), so much radiation could be released that the workers would be evacuated (leaving no one to apply duct tape, spray firehoses, wield oven mitts, etc). Then, if Fuku has a big enough reaction and airborne release, the two downwind nuclear power plants would have to be evacuated. And so on…

  • I’ve been reading this blog for awhile now, hard to remember how long or how I found it. We run in the same circles. I read the responses – usually all of them. And I usually enjoy all of them, even the fray.
    These days, it’s the only blog I read. The only one worth the precious time left.
    I am drenched in sadness.
    I still have to work, but in my ‘spare’ time, I go outside, and to each plant, each animal, each insect, I say “Thank you. I love you. I’m sorry.”
    I have been sitting with this knowledge in my bones for over a couple of decades now. In the mid 80’s I fell in with a group of compatriots. How I loved them all! We were young, beautiful, radical and full of hope. Our mantra was ‘we’ve got 10 years to turn this around before it’s too late, folks, so let’s get started.’ For awhile, it looked like we were actually making progress. We felt euphoric with power and thought that everyone loved us, even the ‘enemy’ in their secret dark hearts.
    Then the blows began to fall. Friends in jail, friends dead, slapp suits, endangered species act gutted, every avenue of effective and legal action blocked, every avenue of non-violent action squelched. The patriot act was the icing on the cake. We had lost. The troops disbanded, or became ineffective by striving to work within this system.
    In short, this was my story. Reclusive now, still paranoid by habit if not by reason, but I post this now to bow before all of you and especially Guy, and say thank you so much. The words I read here move me to tears. I usually have to stop after awhile and just sit with it, help a fly or a wasp off the window screen and back out the door.

    “Once there were brook trout in the streams in the mountains. You could see them standing in the amber current where the white edges of their fins wimpled softly in the flow. They smelled of moss in your hand. Polished and muscular and torsional. On their backs were vermiculate patterns that were maps of the world in its becoming. Maps and mazes. Of a thing which could not be put back. Not be made right again. In the deep glens where they lived all things were older than man and they hummed of mystery.” Cormac McCarthy

  • The ‘do nothing it’s all f**ked’ crowd, could you explain to me please why your position is such. Is it:

    a. The world is and will be suffering. The dead do not suffer. Therefore better we be dead quickly to minimize suffering.
    or
    b. Other?

  • @Wren

    Thank you for adding your voice, and thank you for your previous efforts to ‘turn this around’. What a beautiful Cormac McCarthy quote- it has me in tears because we humans just can’t seem to live with the mystery, we have to have all the answers. Of course, I was already in tears, as I was out in the yard with the girls while their brother is at school, and taking a good close look at the trees, which are in ruins after the blizzard earlier this month, I realized I hadn’t had the courage to really look since the snow melted.

    Yes, we’ve been cleaning up the mess, clearing downed trees, I have seen many areas of town and the wreckage, but I hadn’t actually gone out in my own yard to look and see. The blue spruce which has been the center point around which all of our activities revolve has always seemed untouchable, healthy even, while all the others in these parts decline and decay. We circle around it in summer, following the shade, the kids play under it’s boughs, hang from the branches like monkeys hidden from the untrained eye, even the deer take refuge from heavy rains there.

    But today, I noticed what I have not noticed from my perch doing dishes at the kitchen sink over the past three weeks. Some branches did not survive the blizzard, as it had appeared, and the interior of the branches up the entire tree are dead and rusting. I crawled under the lowest boughs to the refuge where the children play, and as the tears came, my two year old followed me, and seeing the look on my face, asked “Where did this tree come from?”

    Well, it is very old and has been here for a long time, longer than us…the first time I brought you outside as a newborn, we sat on a blanket under it’s shade…many birds make their nests here, and sometimes we find broken robin’s eggs half-buried in the needles…how can words express how I feel about a tree, one which I’ve only known for the three years we’ve lived here? Words can’t do justice, so I cry, which also seems inadequate. I wonder how many tears can the human body produce?

  • @ Wren & Badlands

    Thank you both. Your words echo many of my own experiences.

    Now each time I am caught up in a fit of laugher with my children, or looking into each others eyes with recognition and love, or when I lie in bed at night cuddling with the little one, holding his small fingers inside mine, I rejoice at the preciousness of our sharing, and I ache. I cannot speak to them the pain I feel, but I know they feel my love.

    Each waving tree and glowing leaf, each breathing, hoping, flying, swimming creature, the freshness of a salty breeze, every bite of food, every contact with nature is an expression – a communication – of the unspeakable beauty, the gifts of this earth, kindling and deepening my relationship to life, and making stark what is being lost. Which I generally keep to myself.

    When I swim in the sea I think of Fukishima – even when I just hear the word fish – I think of death. Which I generally keep to myself.

    I see people making long term plans, practical plans, careful plans, well meant plans… and I have a sense of futility – which I generally keep to myself.

    I noticed Badlands that you previously posted a Medicine for the People song. Here is one I also enjoy:

  • “If greed were not the master of modern man – ably assisted by envy – how could it be that the frenzy of economism does not abate as higher “standards of living” are attained, and that it is precisely the richest societies which pursue their economic advantage with the greatest ruthlessness? How could we explain the almost universal refusal on the part of the rulers of the rich societies – where organized along private enterprise or collective enterprise lines – to work towards the humanisation of work? It is only necessary to assert that something would reduce the “standard of living” and every debate is instantly closed. That soul-destroying, meaningless, mechanical, monotonous, moronic work is an insult to human nature which must necessarily and inevitably produce either escapism or aggression, and that no amount of of “bread and circuses” can compensate for the damage done – these are facts which are neither denied nor acknowledged but are met with an unbreakable conspiracy of silence – because to deny them would be too obviously absurd and to acknowledge them would condemn the central preoccupation of modern society as a crime against humanity.”

    ― E.F. Schumacher, Small Is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered

    The central preoccupation of modern soceity IS a crime against humanity, is genocide, is ecocide.

    Everything that is precious to me is GOING. Faster and faster.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/natural-disaster-governments-new-index-reveals-huge-decline-for-britains-most-endangered-wildlife-8902574.html

    Every year we get these same kind of reports, every year they say the same things, that it is worrying, that there are hopeful signs, that more than ever is being done, money is being spent, measures are being taken, blahblah, and every year it gets worse and worse and worse….

    I’ve had ENOUGH of those useless people and their pathetic pretending that somehow their ‘measures’ will work someday. They never have and they never will, and those people have had whole lifetimes, well paid and interesting comfortable careers, regularly issuing these press releases and reports with these platitudes, whilst watching the wildlife vanish.

    Earlier, Rob suggested rioting and uncontrollable sobbing, and I suggested neither will work. Rob and I have differences, as to fundamental philosophical takes on existence and on what a human being is, and various matters. But I admire Rob. He’s not a collaborator.

    He’s thought about the whole thing and he’s drawn his own conclusions. I think he can be proud of that. I really really like people who have done that journey, and I think it takes a lot of courage and is worthy of respect.

    Plenty of people don’t want to participate in this crime, this crime that Schumacher described decades ago. But plenty do, because they get fat and rich and it’s the path of least resistance.

    Cradle to grave and you get the prizes. That’s what they tell the kids. If you behave well as a field negro and work hard, you might get to be a house negro !

    A lot of people are going to have to die, very soon. I’d prefer that it was the criminals, not the victims. Perhaps everybody gets to die very soon. I’d still prefer that the criminals get to understand what they have done, and are doing, and pay retribution. They DESERVE to be held accountable.

    What about the ones who are in but want to be out ?
    That’s the hard part isn’t it. People like Rob, can leave The Machine, but the Machine does not care. People like Rob can become homeless and starve and die by the hundreds of millions and The Machine will carry on regardless.

    That’s what it is doing. There’s a global holocaust of victims going on now, but the MSM keeps it invisible. Whole countries get thrown away. Greece. Somalia.

    Reading more Zapatista links like I posted the other day. This Revolution we need, now, isn’t like theirs, isn’t like any previous Revolution, the French or American or Chinese or Russian, where there was a physical landscape and armies and mountains and bands of guerillas.

    This is something that has never happened before. We approach the extinction of the human species and the collapse of the biosphere and our only common ground is the internet, where our words are all read by our enemies and anyone else who finds them interesting. That’s a very odd sort of terrain.

    What we need is something completely different to anything previously conceived of. I don’t know what it is. People here and elsewhere who are clever, will see what I am saying and will quickly think of it. Both friends and foes.

    What we need is an invisible semi-permeable membrane, a filter, which allows those who want cross over to our side, the Robs, to stay alive, to be supported, to find a route.

    I don’t want to see them getting shot like vermin. They need to be taught and strengthened, and fed, sustenance, refuge, sanctuary, as if they had crossed a real physical battle line and escaped from enemy territory, a way out like the slaves had, from the plantations all the way up north. That old Drinking Gourd.

    http://www.followthedrinkinggourd.org/What_The_Lyrics_Mean.htm

    Those that stay in, need to throw their shoes into the machinery every chance they get.

    This is hard to get one’s head around when everything is virtual, but smart people will figure it out. This isn’t about physical space, this is about head space, about where your mind is, your loyalty is, your heart is, your thinking is, your understanding and your intention and everything that you are.

    It’s not like anything that any of us have known before. We have to learn a new paradigm, a new insight, a new dimension, a new warfare.

    I don’t know what that is, just a vague picture, but I bet in a year it’ll be clear, because all around the world the people have had enough of being fed this shit from the top down, and the guys in uniform who work for them are not going to be safe anywhere, nor their wives, nor their children, and they can’t all hide behind their walls of money all the time. Their kids will get it, even if they don’t.

    Because, the fuckers on the OTHER side, the criminals, ARE going to lose this, one way or another, because the coming generation, the young people, are going to understand who the bad guys are, and when they understand that everybody is going to die ANYWAY, they are going to rip the shit out of this system, and the whole fucking mess will go up in flames.

    So maybe let’s help get the good people out, if we can, as much as we can. The ones who want to get out. Does that make any sense ? I don’t know…
    For the moment, they have control, because they have the guns, and they print the money, and The Machine has historical inertia.

    But all that the criminals care about is power and control and satisfying their own greed. They tempt people to support them by offering them bribes, by tempting their lust for power and control and desire for wealth and security. But with NTE looming, none of those things matter anymore.

    We have a lot more than they do. When people worldwide get really angry, really stop caring, all this stuff, the planes, the trains, the ships, the power stations, the web servers, the refineries and chemical plants, will all start going down, because people will not care how many other people get killed, they’ll just pull out plugs, anywhere and everywhere, as they walk past and say ‘See you all in hell !’.

    I worked in a place, ********* Radar, where they had had a strike and been forced back to work. Sure, they did their jobs and made the stuff. When the boss wasn’t looking they rewired everything so it wouldn’t work and the whole machine would be ruined, and then signed the forms saying it was fully tested and ready for packing and delivery to Malaysia or wherever.

    All the workers had that attitude. What were management going to do ? Fire them all and find a new lot and train them ? What would happen to all the orders for all the radars while they trained a few thousand people from scratch ? And why would the managers care anyway, the whole company was a load of shite, as far as they were concerned, because they were the ones who got all the blame for stuff they could do nothing about and knew nothing about.

    Seems to me, that’s a lot like where we are at now. Cracks everywhere.

    I see that mike k. a few threads back is rambling on about changing the culture. Well, if that was going to work, what ever happened to the ‘60s ?

    Prior to that, he was rambling on about everyone becoming Enlightened.
    Well if that was going to work, we’ve had a 2,500 year trial run and it’s got us nowhere except into this mess.

    Now we have Russell Brand :

    Total revolution of consciousness and our entire social, political and economic system is what interests me, but that’s not on the ballot. Is utopian revolution possible? The freethinking social architect Buckminster Fuller said humanity now faces a choice: oblivion or utopia. We’re inertly ambling towards oblivion, is utopia really an option?

    Hmph.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/10/russell-brand-on-revolution

  • Guy, Peter Ward directly disagrees with your musings on extinction aka NTE.

    Ward, an author, researcher, palaeontologist, and professor of Biology and of Earth and Space Sciences at the University of Washington, can be heard slamming your thesis here: FOUR PAST MASS EXTINCTIONS FROM GLOBAL WARMING (mp3, 20 mins)
    [audio src="http://www.ecoshock.org/downloads/climate2013/ES_Ward_1310_LoFi.mp3" /]

    I tend to believe Dr Ward, not you Guy.

  • @Badlands- I feel so sad for you, and for your children, and the trees. I fled the appalachians in the wake of the death of the hemlocks. Couldn’t take it.
    Can words be consolation? I hope so, sometimes it seems that they are all that’s left. Like the quote from McCarthy, just a memory of a moment in a world now gone, held in our hand for that one precious minute.

    But maybe this will help –

    Listen says fox it is music to run
    over the hills to lick
    dew from the leaves to nose along
    the edges of the ponds to smell the fat
    ducks in their bright feathers but
    far out, safe in their rafts of
    sleep. It is like
    music to visit the orchard, to find
    the vole sucking the sweet of the apple, or the
    rabbit with his fast-beating heart. Death itself
    is a music. Nobody has ever come close to
    writing it down, awake or in a dream. It cannot
    be told. It is flesh and bones
    changing shape and with good cause, mercy
    is a little child beside such an invention. It is
    music to wander the black back roads
    outside of town no one awake or wondering
    if anything miraculous is ever going to
    happen, totally dumb to the fact of every
    moment’s miracle. Don’t think I haven’t
    peeked into windows. I see you in all your seasons
    making love, arguing, talking about God
    as if he were an idea instead of the grass,
    instead of the stars, the rabbit caught
    in one good teeth-whacking hit and brought
    home to the den. What I am, and I know it, is
    responsible, joyful, thankful. I would not
    give my life for a thousand of yours.
    ~ Mary Oliver

  • charlie, Peter Ward is not disagreeing with me. He’s disagreeing with the abundant evidence I present. I agree with the evidence, even when it means I disagree with famous people.

    Ward’s concern with rising seas is ludicrous relative to, for example, plankton and loss of land plants. He doubles down on silly when he worries about airports in 2100. He doubles down again in claiming we can invoke technology inspired by industrial civilization to allow our survival.

    Ward clearly has no understanding of the fossil-fuel energy necessary to maintain industrial civilization. And he fails to comprehend the relatively easily understood concept that the civilization that is killing us is not the solution to allow our continued survival.

  • @ charlie

    Thanks for the link.

    The good thing about Peter Ward is that he educates the climate scientists, and indeed, other scientists, about the deep geological history and the extinction events.

    That’s one of the great problems. Most scientists are highly specialised and sit inside their own little boxes.

    That appears to be Peter Ward’s problem too.

    The only difference that I could discern between his position and Guy’s, is that Ward says that humans will still be around in 2100 because we have such mastery of technology.

    Well, sure, we are good at technology. Cars, planes, nuclear stuff, all kinds of gadgets.

    But what technology keeps us alive in 2100 ? Nobody knows. Essentially, he is expressing FAITH. It’s no different to saying that God will not allow extinction to happen. He is saying TECHNOLOGY will not allow extinction to happen.

    I think he’s forgetting something. For human beings to live, being mammals, primates, they need certain basic requirements. Food, water, air, healthy environment. These are not supplied by technology.

    I mean, you can supply them in a space capsule, for a few people for a limited period, but globally, on the planet, where they are sourced, they are supplied by the biosphere, not the technosphere (the technosphere being all the artificial manmade stuff).

    If you want to use technology, rather than natural systems, to supply e.g. clean water, then you have to have more to technology to supply that technology, and it all takes energy. Mines to produce metals, factories to make machines, ships to transport equipment, etc, etc, all to supply what nature gave us for free.

    The biosphere is the sum of all the ecosystems. When the ecosystems collapse (and 2/3 are already going) then the services they provide are lost. Services being a whole lot of stuff that we depend upon, oxygen, rain, rivers, etc.

    Ecologists are acutely aware of these things. Seems Ward is not. Nobody can replace Earth’s ecosystems with technology.

    Also, technology is just as likely to kill us all as to save us. It’s Pandora’s Box. You close your eyes put your hand in and pull something out. You never know what that something will be.

    It is now near enough possible to print out DNA. That means any geeky kid with a bit of his rich dad’s cash will be able to print out some synthetic biowarfare agent that can kill a billion people, in his basement over the weekend, and take it to an international airport to see what happens, just for kicks.

    I was trying to explain some of this stuff on an earlier thread before it got sabotaged by trolling.

    Think of this scientific prediction as a horse race. The fact that we can even say it’s a horse race is an incredible achievement by SCIENCE.
    Prior to the scientific method, we couldn’t even say that there were horses, or that they were going in the same direction.

    But there’s limits. We can’t say which horse will win. Maybe Guy’s maybe Wards, maybe someone else’s. Ward thinks geoengineering causes acid rain. Gavin Schmidt on RC says that’s rubbish. Differing views are to be expected.

    What ought to be happening is to be taking the broadest possible view, standing right back and seeing the panorama. Almost nobody does that.
    What ought to be happening, if we were sane, is the precautionary principle. But reckless pursuit of profit trumps everything.

    I try my best to cover everything. You have to look at finance, at global geopolitics, at history, at the methane, at biodiversity, etc, etc, etc. at every damn thing.

    THAT is when you get to see why we get NTE.

    Ward thinks that SLR is the killer. AMEG thinks its the methane. You can make a long list. You know, nuclear war, etc, etc. Thing is it’a ALL of these, running neck to neck, and nothing is going to stop them, and all the while MSM telling us ‘Nothing to worry about’, so nobody does anything to prevent the mad dash over the cliff…

    It’s easy for Ward to maintain his normalcy bias. He spends his time in the rich world, on posh university campuses, and flying around the planet with the jet set, to conferences, he sees all the techno crap and that’s his worldview.

    I actually think he’s one of the good guys. Maybe something will happen and he’ll update his worldview. I hope so. I think he’s behind the curve. Most people are. It’s very hard to keep up. I’m here because I think this is the bleeding edge…

  • Wow,
    That was quite some dustup between Guy and the “big pussy”, haven’t seen anything quite like it here before. I suggest that the “great hairy one” watch this film, and then tell me how we “stand a snowballs chance in hell”. Nice try…deep breaths everyone.

  • @ulvfugl
    Thank you for your manifesto against the machine. In the sense that it all boils down to ‘okay, now what ?’ , I agree that “the criminals get to understand what they have done, and are doing, and pay retribution. They DESERVE to be held accountable.” Keep me posted on how to do that.

    Back when there was hope, we loved to quote Terence McKenna. He said “The thing we have going for us is that – if we lose and the bad guys win, we all die!” Simple as that. At the time it sounded cool, made sense, and we thought there was no way we could ever lose. We were photogenic and funny and the local media loved us. Most importantly, we were right, and willing to sacrifice our careers, and lay our bodies on the line for something we believed in – the biosphere. Then everything changed, and here we are today.

    So we need a manifesto for these times. “Though nothing can bring back the hour of splendour in the grass, of glory in the flower, we will grieve not, rather find strength in what remains behind.” I am searching for what this is.

  • ‘Ward’s concern with rising seas is ludicrous relative to, for example, plankton and loss of land plants. He doubles down on silly when he worries about airports in 2100. He doubles down again in claiming we can invoke technology inspired by industrial civilization to allow our survival.’ -guy

    all good points imo. ward seems ignorant of much of the big picture of climate change, resource depletion, overshoot, and collapse. how this can be, i don’t know. it makes me doubt my own sanity/perceptions of surreality. more importantly, it makes me despair for our species. if guys like ward don’t get it, how the hell can we have hope for joe sixpack or aunt sue?

    i disagree with the assertion that the obamas of the world get it. ‘elites’ may indeed be ‘psychopaths’ or fearfully ruthless. it seems a job requirement of being a ‘leader’ in our sick culture. however ruthless ambition and willingness to play ball with the surreal powers that be doesn’t correlate well with scientific literacy imo. if peter ward ain’t gettin it, i’m quite sure obama doesn’t. or putin, or any other damned ‘leader’.

  • @ charlie

    I listened to the show you linked to. All I got from it regarding NTE was “well, I just can’t see extinction happening by 2100, because we have technology”.

    His points about H2S are interesting, but probably irrelevant to humanity since we’ll be gone long before then. Probably. Though I suppose some early outgassing events might affect lingering groups of survivors.

    His comments about flooding are relevant, but again the majority of the flooding will occur after humans are gone. It’s easy to focus on sea level rise because melting ice is easy to imagine. The impacts of weather weirding and crop failures are less obvious. Ward sounds like a bright guy – check back with him in five years and he will probably be on board.

    The airport stuff is funny. Independent of climate change or NTE, I don’t expect air travel to be widespread even in 20 years due to fuel prices. As ticket prices go up to accommodate higher fuel prices, fewer people will travel by air (or perhaps travel at all), and these very expensive airports will not have enough traffic paying gate fees to cover the bond payments. The very wealthy will still fly (similar to what they did in the early 1950s), but the era of widespread civilian air travel is nearly over. Most large airports will be bankrupt and abandoned long before they would need to be relocated.

  • http://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_131023_Show.mp3 methane calthrates co2 no problem .supposedly the problem is hydrogen sulfates we can have 1ööö ppm co2 no problem according this paleontologist

  • @ Wren

    Thank you for that interesting reply, Wren, and your earlier comment, too.

    ok, now what ?

    Hahaha. This moment. That is all that we ever have.

    It contains all the possibilities and potentials available to us and it is unique and will never return.

    So, what should we do with it ?

    Stay in the dark stream of semi-conscious habit and compulsive reactions and responses, or rise up, to something more interesting, demanding, elevating ourselves, and the quality of our experience and existence ?

    I think it’s almost like the struggle of the baby to be born, of any creature emerging, the chick from the egg. So often they fail and slip back into death and oblivion.

    There’s a higher mode of consciousness that some people glimpse, but they don’t know how to hold onto it, and they lose it again, like drowning, they get to the surface, grab some air, and then sink back.

    I think the analogy holds. Some people think you have to work hard to learn how to swim, and spend years doing arduous training. I admit, there’s some truth in that, because you learn so much from mistakes.

    But what I learned is that of you just relax completely and stop trying, then you just float, so to speak, and it requires no effort, no threshing about.

    You breath from the tanden. Between an in-breath, and between an out-breath, just for an instant, you can stop time, and have a timeless moment of perfect stillness and stop the whole fucking Universe, dead in its tracks. Blake’s Auguries of Innocence.

    How’s that for ‘now what ?’ ? :-)

    Nirvana and Samsara are exactly the same thing. Two wheels that rotate around the same axis. The exact centre is motionless.

    And then we do whatever we do. Washing dishes. Or, in my case, leaving them dirty, and doing something else. I must try and fix a fotten window, because a huge storm is due and it might blow the glass out of the frame and leave me with a big hole :-)

    I am searching for what this is.

    Seriously, I have no idea what to say to people.
    Does any of this help ?
    Link below is the first of four essays I wrote for xraymike, and it’s where I’m at, all that I know, all that I can say in the public domain in words, about the predicament that we are all in.

    If I knew better, I’d say better. I don’t think it is much good. I don’t think it helps much. I think the human species reaches the end of it’s time on this planet. That is somewhat momentous. More than words can express. Most people don’t get it at all and never will, but that also can’t be helped.

    All I can do is say it the best way I know. I don’t know what else to do. Some of the useless cowardly trolls have said I’m being narcissistic for linking to my own writing. Fuck ‘em. Why don’t they link to their writing ? Because they have NOTHING to say, that’s why.

    I wish I had something of more value to say that would actually stop what is happening. There’s a few people who make heroic efforts to try and save things, like Spoon-billed Sandpipers. I think that’s fantastic. Why can’t everybody be like that ? Or just more people ? Even a few more people ?

    http://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2013/09/07/building-inner-strength-in-chaotic-times/

    http://www.saving-spoon-billed-sandpiper.com/news/

  • @ulvfugl the struggle of the baby to be born

    Like “The Myth of the Birth of the Hero”, and how it translates to people’s lives. It seems many people are trapped in mediocrity, have not been seriously challenged, to where they test the limits of their human potential, and this causes stagnation, malaise. Many people have not experienced their own power, and so don’t have a basis of trust in their capabilities, and don’t know power is not about dominance, control, crushing ‘the other’, but can come from a quiet place inside, from connection, from the earth itself. Lovely sentiments on living in the moment, too. Thanks, also, for your sensible explanations of our ‘situation’!

    @Wren
    Please don’t feel too sad! We are kind of ‘being in the moment’ people, and instead of making elaborate plans, we have come to understand that for any experience, just ‘once’ can be enough, and is likely all we will be afforded. For instance, our five year old has many health issues, two younger sisters, his dad works long hours. He has seriously lacked one-on-one attention. So, though we couldn’t all go, we decided earlier this summer that he and his dad would take a weekend to go camping and fishing on the Missouri. Very likely the only time that is going to happen, but we did make it happen, and have to cherish it. We settle for less than perfection in most things, and in doing so, in releasing the moments from the heavy burden of expectation, they become more pure, more appreciated.
    Thank you so much for the Mary Oliver poem! I find a lot of healing in music, poetry, art, contemplation and working through ideas, and just being with others, sitting or walking or hiking outside. What a luxury it is to once in a while lay on the ground and watch the clouds roll by!

    B.C.

    The seed that met water spoke a little name.

    (Great sunflowers were lording the air that day;
    this was before Jesus, before Rome; that other air
    was readying our hundreds of years to say things
    that rain has beat down on over broken stones
    and heaped behind us in many slag lands.)

    Quiet in the earth a drop of water came,
    and the little seed spoke: “Sequoia is my name.”

    -William Stafford

    @Christy
    I have to tell you, growing up in Alaska, Hawaii was always my version of paradise. I was lucky to have visited there twice in my early twenties, fortunate to visit black sand beaches tucked in among the rocks, drink coffee with honey and milk, amazed and terrified to swim in the ocean at night.
    Yes, thank you for the ‘musical medicine’! Maybe you and the children would like this from Randy Wood: https://youtu.be/2kjn7wiMkes

  • Good comments on Peter Ward, and I listened to Charlie’s link (thanks!) and he does sound like one of the good guys.

    I think back to my own ignorance just over a year ago, and being a specialist in advanced scientific/social issues is no guarantee you can put together the most necessary overview as Guy challenges us to do. We are ALL idiot savants in many ways; our own normalcy biases expose us as such. (Could you/I even do a Wilderness Survival Challenge now, even under optimal natural conditions?)

    “We have technology” always reminds me of the old Lone Ranger/Tonto joke, when surrounded by hostile Indians: “What do you mean ‘we’, Kemo Sabe?”

    Not just that “we” never seem to want to share the technological benefits, but that “we” can’t even seem to get together enough to implement that which scientists and engineers might provide us, the “we” of the supposedly privileged “In Crowd”. These emergency solutions — Bruce Willis blows up the asteroid — happen only in the movies.

    Did I hear Ward mention wearing gas masks (against the H2S) at one point? I was just waking up. Something about not having many animal companions around us either. Sheesh!

    Many good observations about the loss of oxygen in the oceans, something we have not covered much here, as a cross-current to hit us if the habitat loss is not fatal much sooner.

    Ward also made a good reminder about the long buildup times in the oceans, and how the effects of ongoing accumulation will spill over — seemingly all at once — once they reach various saturation points.

    When Guy uses the word “non-linear”, I think it befuddles most people, who are more accustomed to seeing charts that arc upward in an accelerating curve. (Most human curves arcing upwards are unsustainable, and eventually collapse. If Nature’s curve upward is going to collapse eventually, we just won’t be around to see it.)

    For me the word “acceleration” carries the sense of threat better, if people are unlikely to get the meaning of “vertiginous”.

    Speaking of habitat loss, the challengers to NTE always try to wave their arms and object in generic, global generalities.

    Of course the contrapositive to Extinction (are they conceding LTE? and “Now we’re merely haggling over your price, Madam?”) must be that some human community, somewhere, must survive.

    Would they please provide us with a scenario (habitat? shelter? location?) where this would be most possible under the conditions (1000 ppm, for 1000 years) now approaching? (Crickets chirping…)

    They are most likely conceding mass die-off, so that makes it easier for them. They only have to come up with a few examples where some people, somewhere, will:

    (1) thrive from the loss of others,
    (2) move or quickly adapt to new conditions, or
    (3) develop quickly a substitute habitat/agriculture that permits long-term survival.

    Still waiting, for just a HINT from them of what those scenarios might be…

  • @ Badlands

    :-)

    @ Henry

    Hey, Henry, so glad you’ve got a grip on this stuff.

    I think the explanation for these differences of view amongst scientists, it takes years and years of very intense work to get on top of all that academic information and then get ahead in your specialist field and do some original research, and publish in the journals, and all that stuff.

    So compare with a professional classical music virtuoso, takes the same sort of commitment. But an opera singer has no competence as a classical guitarist, and a classical guitarist has no idea how to play baroque viola da gamba, and they all learn and perform using sheet music, and when it comes to jazz, they’d be lost, because they don’t understand spontaneous improvisation, and none of the above have a clue about Irish music which doesn’t obey any of the rules of the above, no sheet music, no improvisation. They are basically clueless about other areas.

    So, what we have are scientists who just don’t understand other areas of science.

    Now, if that methane bomb is going off, I bet Ward will be forced to update his worldview kinda quick, but we shall see.

    More interestingly, he hates Lovelock’s Theory. He thinks it’s incompatible with his findings. But I think he’s wrong. Seeing as his theory and Lovelock’s are the only significant models we have, it’s worth comparing them.

    I think that if you look at Lovelock’s Daisy World model, when there’s a shift between e.g. black and white daisies, you would not necessarily expect a smooth transition. Might be a very extreme dramatic change.

    What I’d suggest is, that if you think of the biosphere as a total living system, what happens is, it gets ‘ill’. It gets a fever. Sometimes it gets so ill it very nearly dies, as Ward suggests.

    This is a way of reconciling these two theories.

    Gaia sequestered the carbon, to keep it out of the system, locked away safely in the geology.

    We come along, like a disease, like malaria, and release it. This causes a serious imbalance. What can Gaia do ? An immune response. Kill off the nasty germs. How to do this ? A fever. Raise the temperature, cook the place, blast the bugs until they die, with a shot of methane, a shot of hydrogen sulphide, whatever it takes…

    You might think of this a bit like some forms of severe gut infection. Not certain if I have this correct, but it explains the principle anyway.
    You get some nasty bug in your gut, so you get acute pain and vomiting and diarrhoea and all the normal healthy gut bacteria and flora are expelled and you don’t eat for a week or two and get very thin and emaciated and almost perish.

    Apparently there’s a theory that’s why we have an appendix, because it acts as a reservoir, keeping a small colony of the good organisms that can come out and gradually help the gut to begin digesting food again once the disease is over.

    Balance slowly restored.

    Depends what Gaia IS.

    New Age romantics think she is some kind of cute goddess. Lovelock thought of her as that Greek Earth Mother. But that’s getting in the way of clear thinking, clear seeing.

    There’s something going on. Don’t name it or give it any characteristics, just observe the phenomenon.

    The analogy with human illness will not be correct because it’s not exact.

    It just gives a hint, maybe, a clue, to help understand how a complex system might behave as it re-adjusts itself in the race of perturbations.

    There’s homeostasis. Nobody really understands what that might mean in the case of life on Earth. How all the parts contribute to the overall stability and well-being of the whole. Ward wants to see it his way, and I think his view is very useful, he’s a great scientist. But we can see he has some blinkers. Same can be said for Lovelock. I’d also mention Lynn Margolis and her take, and Donella Meadows systems theory take.

  • I have have been trying to post here lately but for no avail it seems my ideas are even for this crowd to revolutionary so i am getting censured heawily No problem anyway here is a video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lq6wFb7lBG8&list=PL4F1C643AD509B283 and add to the mixture this information http://www.thedailysheeple.com/the-human-race-is-dying-dna-degeneration-would-eventually-lead-to-the-total-extinction-of-humanity_082013 *please distract some of the religious nonse mixed in )it becomes clearly visible that the human experience reached an evolutionary plateau it is being cancelled out . This is a natural process . I know it is hard to grok but no choice we will swallow it . What is the benefit ? as the guy is saying . We are going to have an extraordinary experience of immense magnitude . after that ?! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUsxWZdgbnQ

  • @ EtyerePetyere

    ..seems my ideas are even for this crowd to revolutionary..

    Which ideas ?

    ..so i am getting censured heawily..

    Probably too many links in your comment puts it into moderation.

    This is a natural process

    I’m doubtful about those ideas. The extinction theory doesn’t need to be an either/or, there could have been many factors. Amazing how long the dinosaurs lasted compared to our own brief time. The mutations, dunno, I suspect that’s always going on for all species.

    Quite hard to ignore the ‘Generations since Noah’, I mean, if you want the idea to be taken seriously, couldn’t you find a better source ?

  • For some reason, we are so contentious that common action might be as hopeless as the wildest hopium. You’d think we could all stand quietly, stay far back, and look at what’s happening. Look at the fucking idiots throwing shit and plastic in the sea, at their idiotic power boats, at the spectacle of politricks–just look at it with a kind of principled and communitarian bemusement, do it all together. But we don’t. And if we can’t do that, there’s not much else we can do.

  • Nice riposte, Guy. The thing that worries me about you, if you don’t mind me saying so, and because of my training in psychology, is that I suspect part of your world view is coloured by your obvious depression. You made a bad career move, and that’s topped with what sounds like a clinical depressive episode (only you know how true this is or isn’t). As such, it seems quite possible that you have carefully cherry-picked the worst possible prognostications, from good sources and bad (some of the prognosticators you have chosen have dubious motives, as Alex Smith showed on one of his shows), and cobbled them all together to come up with a synthesis that suits your emotional state.

    There’s a HELL of a lot at stake if you are right, Guy. That’s why I regard your pronouncements with caution. When and if any serious academics endorse your thesis, I’ll change this attitude.

    Meanwhile, please accept that I respect what you are doing and listen to everything you have to say with careful attention.

  • Nice riposte, Guy. The thing that worries me about you, if you don’t mind me saying so, and because of my training in psychology, is that I suspect part of your world view is coloured by your obvious depression. You made a bad career move, and that’s topped with what sounds like a clinical depressive episode (only you know how true this is or isn’t). As such, it seems quite possible that you have carefully cherry-picked the worst possible prognostications, from good sources and bad (some of the prognosticators you have chosen have dubious motives, as Alex Wise showed on one of his shows), and cobbled them all together to come up with a synthesis that suits your emotional state.

    There’s a HELL of a lot at stake if you are right, Guy. That’s why I regard your pronouncements with caution. When and if any serious academics endorse your thesis, I’ll change this attitude.

    Meanwhile, please accept that I respect what you are doing and listen to everything you have to say with careful attention.

  • Sorry, Alex Wise should be Alex SMITH. And the show that dissed you and called into question one of your chief sources, Malcolm Light, is here:
    [audio src="http://www.ecoshock.net/eshock13/ES_130605_Show_LoFi.mp3" /]

  • Sorry, Alex Wise should be Alex SMITH. And the show that dissed you and called into question one of your chief sources, Malcolm Light, is here:
    [audio src="http://www.ecoshock.net/eshock13/ES_130605_Show_LoFi.mp3" /]

  • @ulvfugl Yes with humans “mind” entered the plenum and that is outside the regular evolutionary processes . Mind is alien to the strata it has some sort of a very abrasive connection with regular evolutionary processes . It is a problem child which dares to go places ,freaking everybody out used to old systems . With mind everything goes out the window. Mind enters when the regular menu has become obsolete . Million billion year old processes have done their deed now they are going to be retired . With it this 3 dimensional space time continuum . Yes scary . It is a problem … not for the problem child ..god but can he do tricks ….Yeah check it out guys who made the movie /2001: A Space Odyssey/ had ideas . Culture DNA environment are being exhausted as we speak . This stuff in a no fix no longer

  • charley@ Lucky guy Guy !! you have got a diagnosis for free from Charley . Watch out I guess that makes all of us being present here suspect .

  • @ Charles Yes Charles any other diagnosis you could pull out of your hat ? You have missed his bad choice for marriage and didn`t reveal to us various compulsive behaviors he is trying to hide from us notwithstanding criticising guys poor fashion choices Hehe Funny that dr remote psycologe is referring to Guys`s source but than he can not name his own source properly thats why he desperately tries afterward correct it twice if that would make up for the clear evidence that he himself is the unstable one . Especially considering his closing statement that he would believe if there would be mr allknowing science guru approval of the issue .

  • @ Badlands

    Hawaii is a beautiful place to be. I live in a rural, still fairly wild, place. I came here to raise my first son when he was a baby, after having been a nomad for many years. It seemed like the most sane place to live in the US – we can grow food all year, there is lots of wild nature all around, and a slower pace of life. It is a relatively recently colonized country, turned into a plantation-slave labor economy for some years -so there is that unhappy history to live with. Interestingly, the Hawaiians couldn’t be seduced or harassed into working in the sugar cane fields for nothing but the occasional whipping. Why work so hard when the coconuts are falling from the trees and fish are plentiful in ancient ponds, available for the taking? So the American businessmen shipped loads of Japanese, Portuguese, Chinese… all seeking a better life – money. They became indentured servants for a while. Then they organized unions… eventually for many years they practically ran the political show.

    I have missed the expanses of ‘the mainland,’ as north america is often referred to here, the flora and the fauna there, but once I lived in Hawaii for some years I could never leave.

    @logspirit

    I think I am responding to your comment on a different thread… about not getting attached to beauty:

    I want to fully see, feel, know, and be the beauty of this sacred life! If my heart breaks open with the pain that’s okay with me! Then there is no longer any separation between me and this world I love. I let go, now. Being one with it all is not the same as attachment.

    To really live as though the day is here may require some changes. Maybe one is happy to continue to do exactly what they are doing now until they die. If so, congratulations are in order!

    Myself, I am grateful for Guy for speaking this, for revealing the truth that we all know already, for putting it all together and saying yep, it’s real, you can face it now. We don’t know exactly when or exactly how, but we can see the what, as plain as day.

    Look at it.

    Take out an old bucket list if you have one, and revise or create anew, if need be.

    Learn how to be in the present moment via the breath, as ulvfugl suggests.

    Now, live, live, live.

    Which may just mean appreciating, celebrating, and loving this precious life while we can. (Loving includes mourning. Some times love hurts.) All of this we ought to be doing anyway, NTE or not. So, there is the gift in the midst of this horror. Imo.

  • @ charles

    It really doesn’t matter whether you know know anything about psychology, or whether Guy is depressed or not, or which of the many Alex’s in the world you believe or don’t believe, does it, because we have SCIENCE, and we have SATELLITES and every day they measure the methane in the atmosphere and the instruments record the levels, and so we can see what it happening, and because we know, from detailed studies of what has happened in the past, what the relationships between methane and CO2 and global temperature are, we can make a good estimation of what increasing methane levels mean for our future.

    If you cannot understand this stuff, it is not Guy’s fault, is it, it is your own. Guy isn’t telling you to believe him, or to take his word on trust, he’s presenting the reports that are published on the record by the scientific journals, with the sources.

    By the time that research results get through peer review and through publishing they can be quite old and out of date, sometimes by years.

    But we don’t have to wait that long, we can see what’s happening right now, we can SEE the effing methane coming out of the Laptev Sea and if YOU don’t understand what that MEANS, it’s because YOU don’t understand the science and need to educate yourself, nothing to do with Guy’s psychology or what Malcolm Light said or any other irrelevant crap.

    https://arctic-news.blogspot.ca/2013/10/epic-methane-releases-from-east-siberian-arctic-shelf.html

    https://arctic-news.blogspot.ca/2013/10/how-do-we-act-in-the-face-of-climate-chaos.html

  • Guy is not a climate scientist, and he uses unreliable sources like Malcolm Light. When a pukka climate scientist discusses NTE (a term coined by Guy, AFAIK), then (and only then) we must take notice. Right now it’s just speculation and fantasy, used here mainly as an excuse to ruminate on life’s meaning and as a springboard for cries of Carpe Diem. Fun, but not really serious stuff.

  • @ charleyy

    ..then (and only then) we must take notice…

    And what are you, charleyy ? someone who cannot even spell their own name, and doesn’t know one Alex from another, and who are YOU to speak on behalf of US and decide who WE should take notice of, eh ?

    If you can’t even use your own eyes to see what’s happening to the methane from the ESAS, then it’s not really much of a surprise that you can’t tell whether someone is a climate scientist or not, is it.

    Obviously you’ve got some serious impairment if you are making a judgement concerning NTE purely on your estimation of Malcolm Light, and to extend the case – even on your estimation of Guy McPherson.

    Perhaps you havn’t noticed all the other authorities that make the same arguments, except that the don’t conclude with the tag NTE.

    Doesn’t matter what you call it, does it, it amounts to the same thing, and your trivial clueless nit-picking criticism doesn’t change the science one bit.

  • @charlie/charles/charley/charleyy

    We have a diagnosis! Seriously, who HASN”T had a depressive episode after taking a good look around at our reality? I think there is a misperception among some people that because one has accepted or is grappling with likely NTE that this necessarily results in depression and apathy, hurting any positive action re:climate change. I find that to be exactly the opposite. Yes, there is occasional sadness, tears, anger, confusion, but there is also a crystallized focus on what is important. Ruminating on life’s meaning IS fun, but it is also serious. If one doesn’t come to some level of self-awareness, some understanding of our ‘predicament’ in an honest and clear way, which is difficult enough with all of the wide-spread disagreement among the expert opinions, how will one know which battles are worth fighting? The people butting heads over NTE/no NTE are going to decide for us which battles to fight?! No thanks.

    The argument over semantics is tired and there will never be any agreement. Real strength is going to come from flexibility and open-mindedness, because uncharted territory lies ahead, and we likely don’t speak the language or have the tools to ‘solve’ the problems we have created. Just because someone doesn’t have all of the answers or solutions, doesn’t mean they are wrong in the analysis of the situation. People don’t blindly follow Guy as some pact in a suicide cult. We are all rational, thinking, feeling adults, capable of looking at the information and drawing our own conclusions. We are not naive, we are here because we noticed that everything warned about for the last forty years has materialized.
    Guy is no cult leader, no guru, there is no pact, many dug their way here for honest information with no spin, and once here, shouldered their way into the conversation to say, yes, I hear you, I see what’s going on out there, and no, it’s not good. Just because people often speak emotionally, does not mean they are being led around on a leash by those feelings, does not mean they don’t understand the science, it just means they are human, it hurts to see the destruction of the natural world.
    So what if maybe a couple thousand people believe NTE is the most likely outcome? What exactly is that threatening? We can’t get our nearest and dearest to take us seriously, and everyone’s worried talk of NTE is going to run any possible climate change mitigation into the ground? Huh. The plot thickens…

    @ulvfugl Did you have to batten down the hatches for St. Jude? Looks like a little taste of tree destruction has visited the UK on the heels of said storm. Hope you are well!

    @Christy Yes, I feel the same way about South Dakota as you do about Hawaii. Now. But it was not love at first sight, it was more of a battle to come to love this place. I had to exorcise Alaska from my blood first!

    It’s Over. https://youtu.be/OaBpj1JfCKs

  • I enjoyed being able to listen to peter wards interview on ecoshock radio so thanks charlie. But I can’t agree with your conclusion that he directly disagrees with Guy when Peter is clearly beating his own version of the doomsday drum. We laughed, me and a friend, I mean really had a good belly laugh, over the idea that this techno hell we are eek out a shred of meager life in is to be believed to bear survival’ in any true sense of the idea, but ho hum….you see peter actually talked about survival in the near future in which we are not “happy” and hints at wearing “gas masks” thanks to technology. The road in real life, but worse, much worse. Hmmm that is extinction staved off through the total collapse of everything we care about in a hellish reality where nothing but us and our gas masks are to be seen on a dead planet. A planet no one wants to live on nor can realistically survive in without being unhappy, unhealthy, but alive by a thread, only. Hmmmm. Total loss of quality of life, and of nature. Survivors in his scenario survive in a techno nightmare on a dead earth. Thanks charlie, proof of the total insanity that is industrialized man.

    But still, informative show and I did not know about sulfur hydroxide which sounds like another systems feedback loop? Also aren’t rising waters a kind of an economic feedback loop?

  • @ Badlands

    I heard a couple of people were killed by the storm, and fear of it made me fix my rotten window, which was good, but it never came here, I had a visit from a couple of zen masters instead, which was also good, thanks for asking.

    @ Henry

    http://skeletonsaint.com/2013/10/27/mexicos-trinity-of-death-santa-muerte-day-of-the-dead-and-calavera-catrina-an-illustrated-overview/

  • 1) A place where the extreme direness of society is not disguised or mealy mouthed out of significance.

    2) A place that acknowledges the rock bottom status of industrial society (IC). (If there were a remote chance that humankind could overcome its purported fate, it would, ironically, have to be through hitting rock bottom and coming here.)

    3) A model of self sufficiency.

    4) The concept of a gifting society. (One of the most revolutionary concepts I’ve come across, shining a light on a vague marginal glimmer of a concept in the back of my mind, and bringing it to the fore.)

    5) An exemplary, accessible program of free lectures that model a potential sort of global networking.

    It will be noted that this is a very preliminary list, and that I leave out science. That’s because science is neither my strength nor what brought me to this place. My list is toward describing the value Guy has brought to my experience. Science is not the be all or end all of it for some people.

  • @ TIAA

    Yup.

    Massive contradiction.

    McPherson, he say, NTE, everybody die very soon.

    Ward, he say, nope, humans, they smart, everything else gets to die, but they have the techno, they’ll still be here in a hundred years.

    After that ?

    Well, it’s dead oceans, green skies and sulphur dioxide and mass extinction, just like last time. But not in our lifetime.

    So, don’t worry, eh. :-)

  • “Stop The Great Lakes Nuclear Dump Inc.” is a non-profit organization of concerned citizens – ordinary Canadians. We are deeply concerned about Ontario Power Generation’s proposal to build a Deep Geological Repository to bury radioactive nuclear waste on the shores of the Great Lakes. We believe that radioactive nuclear waste should not be buried underground anywhere in the Great Lakes Basin. We believe that the protection of our Great Lakes from buried radioactive nuclear waste is responsible stewardship, and is of national and international importance. The Great Lakes provide safe clean drinking water for 40 million people in two countries, as well as providing recreation, fishing, supporting agriculture, plant and aquatic life.

    http://www.stopthegreatlakesnucleardump.com/about.php

  • 1 gram of thorium equal to 28,000 liters of gasoline.

    I thought oil had the highest EROEI.

    Whoops, yet again!

    http://politicalblindspot.com/car-runs-1-million-miles-on-8-grams-of-thorium/

    How many times have we TECHed our way out of collapse? Dozens of times. How many times have we FUBARd and collapsed? More than a few. Why are we to think either is set in stone?! Lack of imagination.

    I’m still not seeing a good reason to think NTE is set in stone. Sorry!

  • this thread is dead, as it should be.

    two post a day rule?

  • It turned out peak oil is alive and well and it might just saves us …Or Not ! http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=peak-oil-may-keep-catastrophic-climate-change-in-check

  • @ muffleupagus

    Dozens of times.

    Examples ?

    That car, assuming it’s more than vapourware, just means that some very rich people get to drive a car.

    But IC still relies on fossil fuels. You know, the roads, the bridges, the steel, the mines, the shipping, everything else, still pumping out the CO2.

    @ EtyerePetyere

    Thanks for that interesting link. Some interesting comments too, e.g. :

    So what do the economics look like to replace all other energy sources with renewables? If we assume a similar growth rate it will take around 590 years (plus or minus) to replace everything with renewables. In the mean time what are we going to use?

  • @ulfugl, Ward said that “we’ll muddle through” and his dire predictions do not kick in for a few hundred years.

    I’m contrasting that with Guy’s constant promotion of NTE is a couple of decades!

    I and everyone I care about will be gone by 2050-2060. It’s of great personal interest to me if Guy is right or wrong.

    Guy needs to address the objections Radio Ecoshock raised about Malcolm Light, one of the alarmist sources Guy uses, just for starters.

  • @ulfugl, Ward said that “we’ll muddle through” and his dire predictions do not kick in for a few hundred years.

    I’m contrasting that with Guy’s constant promotion of NTE is a couple of decades!

    I and everyone I care about will be gone by 2050-2060. It’s of great personal interest to me if Guy is right or wrong.

    Guy needs to address the objections Radio Ecoshock raised about Malcolm Light, one of the alarmist sources Guy uses, just for starters.

  • And I keep changing my name because Guy keeps blocking me from commenting!

    The fact that he is doing that tells you something right there.

  • And I keep changing my name because Guy keeps blocking me from commenting!

    The fact that he is doing that tells you something right there.

    He does not want my voice here. Ask yourself why!

  • charley/charlee, I’ve never attempted to censor, alter, or block any comment from you. You’re harmless.

  • Dear Ulvfugl,

    Yeah the difference of NTE being twenty years away or one hundred is mind blowing! Thank God for these reasonable scientist types that keep that boogey man at bay with such adroit skill. Why listening to Mr. Ward left me all fuzzy inside cause I now know all I need is a high tech geo engineered gas mask and geo-engineered happy pills, then as everything else around me continues to collapse and die and even when everything is dead, I will still be alive. Yippie! Forget about the current issues and the masses of humanity brutalized right now and the escalation that is guaranteed. We have geo-engineering to prolong our suffering and some humans will be kept alive till the gory end. Hmmmm. I vote they should choose from a lottery of the biggest carbon polluters to be that group of lucky survivors. Hmmmm. Probably already in the works.

    But back to Mr. Wards interview, his concern for the lack of accessible scientific info that is for the average non scientist human, so they can all be educated and grasp this grand scale gassing of all life, seemed pretty relevant.

  • charleee,

    Guy has acknowledged that the Malcolm Light “paper” is a bit premature and, as far as I’m aware, no longer uses that as an argument for near term human extinction.

    I think it still remains a possibility but doesn’t seem likely from what I’ve read about the science. Now, medium/long term human extinction is another thing.

    I have also had a few posts go missing, but I think that’s a technical issue of some sort. I seem to remember a comment on an earlier thread that mentioned this but can’t find it.

  • Tony, I agree with your view. I have little doubt humanity will be gone in a few hundred years, but the chances of it happening soon, well, on the available evidence, no.

  • @ chaarles

    But are you capable of accurately evaluating the available evidence ? Well, on the available evidence, I’d say, no.

  • “No one here gets out alive.”
    ― Jim Morrison