by Mel Strawn

Strawn picture round 2

The geometry of nature in transit.

Whither now?

Years of concern and study, discussion, organizing and demonstrating lead me now, October, 2013, to a state of cognitive buzz. The buzz is about our unbelievably complex world-civilization and nature (all that is not of man’s making). There is the daily routine, varied everywhere, but here typically composed of often blue skies and tranquil, even moving and elegant moments, such as those of geese acting together on their way to somewhere. For me, for my fellow central Colorado citizens, friends and family, all seems normal and we all are comfortable in the assumption that tomorrow and next week will be about the same. Nothing to get all worked up about.

But in this place of comfort and tranquility there is this buzz: disruptive dispatchs arrive daily about broader realities that have already announced themselves, sometimes nearby – In Lyons, Colorado where my son has a home and design studio and which is still under virtual martial law until infrastructure of the entire town can be restored after September’s mega flood. Pick your place and time: Australia right now fighting, yet again, vast and devastating wildfires-and our Western Rockies are no stranger to those either-2012’s mega drought in America’s agricultural heartland…These and many, many other extreme weather events around the world are influenced, magnified by the effects of global warming and its influence on climate world-wide. The world’s scientific evidence points to a 95 to 99% certainty that our way of life has become, itself, a ‘force of nature’. And the prospects are not good; not only for our children and theirs, but also for many of us already here, now. A tsunami of studies and books and videos relaying the findings of the studies has arisen. To add noise to the buzzing scene there is also a similar number of arguments using the same media denying that anything of concern is happening. In this social-political climate it is easy (but also lazy) to ignore it all with its confusions, battle lines, fund requests, nasty ad hominem character assassinations, anxieties, fears (particularly of loss of social credibility and friends), ego-tripping, and shear demands on one’s time, serenity and sanity.

We all face choices every day. One is to ignore these issues. One is to deny them-on ideological or faith-based grounds-or simply because they seem so contrary to “common sense” and the tranquil reality that has ruled the cycle of days so far in our own lives. And one, finally, is to pay attention, consider the evidence (and challenges to it), and seek to respond, somehow, in self defense or in larger concern for life and in opposition to the bad stuff that is on its way. This includes the collapse of not just our own comfort zones but our industrial (250-year-old) civilization, and the extinction of plants and animals essential to our own survival. Yeah, that too.

Choices one or two, to ignore or deny, are not my immediate concern, not the source of the annoying buzz I’m afflicted with. How to address the third is. That is, how do I, first of all, and then with others, process the information available? I am not a scientist, politician or psychologist but a teacher and artist, “senior citizen”, parent, grandparent, westerner, ex soldier, hunter, fisherman, truck driver, farm worker… we all have similar backgrounds, really. I, and probably you, have to consider the evidence available from those qualified to publish it in order to shape my understanding and consequent actions.

My sources include, among many, these books: “Limits of Growth” (Club of Rome MIT study, 1972), James Hansen’s book “Storms of My Grandchildren”, Charles Ornstein’s “Ascent of Humanity”, Heidi Cullen’s “The Weather of the Future”, Mark Lynas’s “6 Degrees”, David Orr’s “Down to the Wire”, Allan Weisman’s “Countdown”, Lester Brown’s “Plan B 3.0”, Al Gore’s “The Future”, the IPCC’s 5th Report and Senator Rob Hogg’s “America’s Climate Century”.

Online sources include AMEG (Arctic Methane Emergency Group), Nature Bats Last (Prof. Guy McPherson), 350.org, Climate Central — again, among many.

Guy McPherson, Professor Emeritus, University of Arizona, has written several books and presents his collated understandings of what it all portends at venues all over the country, most recently one in Boulder that I attended. He sums up virtually all the latest studies and projections-and that summation perfectly frames my cognitive buzz.

Briefly, (McPherson’s points) all the evidence points to a locked-in 3.5 – 5 degree C global temperature rise above the 1850 ‘norm’ by mid century, possibly much sooner. This guarantees a positive feedback, already underway, leading to 4.5 to 6 or more degrees above ‘norm’ that historically correlates with atmospheric CO2 ppm; and that is a level lethal to life. This is partly due to the fact that humans have to eat and plants can’t adapt fast enough to make that possible for the 7 to 9 billion of us — so we die. There are other possibilities in his view of things-including the catastrophic nuclear danger of dealing with the fuel rods in Fukushima-Daiichi Reactor 4 (to start next month). But that is for another and extended discussion …

ALL of the source studies above are in essential agreement. Some focus on the problems of leadership (Orr). Some deal with population and its various cultures as they effect the limits of the earth’s support system (Weisman). Some address the broad, interrelated factors that make up the underlying crisis issue of global warming-climate change (Lester Brown and Al Gore).

The quandary for me, perhaps for you: what, knowing the probable validity of these dire, near term events, is the right thing to do? Is it a moral responsibility to speak out, holding nothing back, including the prospect of near term extinction of our own species within this century? How do we engage others in discussing such difficult to believe information? It has, for me, been persuasively argued that only taking personal “carbon footprint” actions such as changing light bulbs, buying a more fuel efficient car, not eating meat, recycling is not going to make the critical difference required. More is required and that more calls for collective action: organizing and making public educational and political statements. Even these are problematical; they may or may not take us to a “negative” tipping point (the way back to sanity and survival). Yet, is it not an obligation to load the dice in this way, by opposing actively and in concert with others those practices that are driving us toward disaster at an increasing speed? And, as Guy points out, is taking action not the best antidote to both apathy and despair?

These are the outlines of my quandary, my cognitive buzz.

We can all choose the one positive action that Guy uses to close his recent presentations: do good work to create moments of value. This, I think, is what art is about-and it is based in celebration of the mystery and phenomenon of life-one project, one moment at a time. And sharing.


Thanks to ulvfugl for pointing out a technical fix to the problem of the disappearing comments: “I’m using Chrome browser. Go to top right corner, click three horizontal bars, says ‘new incognito window’, get NBL, and everything is immediately updated. Can’t advise for any other browsers, but I assume it’s something to do with cookies and being tracked, etc, because being anonymous fixes it.”

Comments 160

  • Some say it is cherry-picking. But might not they be appropriate when considering the title of the esteemed James Howard Kunstler’s blog?

    Most prognosticators are considering one or two items. Quite another situation when one considers the whole cluster.

    The question remains: palliative/hospice care to improve the quality of the remaining life, or radical and heroic measures directed towards a cure? Keeping in mind that the side effects from undertaking the latter would make it unethical without a reasonable prospect for a cure. But then there are those who would rather have their loved ones sliced and diced to delay acknowledging the dire situation.

  • Just a note: Mark Lynas wrote Nuclear 2.0. If we do that, so he says, we’ll be okay.

  • So what is with all the dying bees? Scientists have been trying to discover this for years. Meanwhile, bees keep dropping like… well, you know.

    Is it mites? Pesticides? Cell phone towers? What is really at the root? Turns out the real issue really scary, because it is more complex and pervasive than thought.

    Quartz reports:

    Scientists had struggled to find the trigger for so-called Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) that has wiped out an estimated 10 million beehives, worth $2 billion, over the past six years. Suspects have included pesticides, disease-bearing parasites and poor nutrition. But in a first-of-its-kind study published today in the journal PLOS ONE, scientists at the University of Maryland and the US Department of Agriculture have identified a witch’s brew of pesticides and fungicides contaminating pollen that bees collect to feed their hives. The findings break new ground on why large numbers of bees are dying though they do not identify the specific cause of CCD, where an entire beehive dies at once.
    The researchers behind that study in PLOS ONE — Jeffery S. Pettis, Elinor M. Lichtenberg, Michael Andree, Jennie Stitzinger, Robyn Rose, Dennis vanEngelsdorp — collected pollen from hives on the east coast, including cranberry and watermelon crops, and fed it to healthy bees. Those bees had a serious decline in their ability to resist a parasite that causes Colony Collapse Disorder. The pollen they were fed had an average of nine different pesticides and fungicides, though one sample of pollen contained a deadly brew of 21 different chemicals. Further, the researchers discovered that bees that ate pollen with fungicides were three times more likely to be infected by the parasite.

    The discovery means that fungicides, thought harmless to bees, is actually a significant part of Colony Collapse Disorder. And that likely means farmers need a whole new set of regulations about how to use fungicides. While neonicotinoids have been linked to mass bee deaths — the same type of chemical at the heart of the massive bumble bee die off in Oregon — this study opens up an entirely new finding that it is more than one group of pesticides, but a combination of many chemicals, which makes the problem far more complex.

    And it is not just the types of chemicals used that need to be considered, but also spraying practices. The bees sampled by the authors foraged not from crops, but almost exclusively from weeds and wildflowers, which means bees are more widely exposed to pesticides than thought.

    The authors write, “[M]ore attention must be paid to how honey bees are exposed to pesticides outside of the field in which they are placed. We detected 35 different pesticides in the sampled pollen, and found high fungicide loads. The insecticides esfenvalerate and phosmet were at a concentration higher than their median lethal dose in at least one pollen sample. While fungicides are typically seen as fairly safe for honey bees, we found an increased probability of Nosema infection in bees that consumed pollen with a higher fungicide load. Our results highlight a need for research on sub-lethal effects of fungicides and other chemicals that bees placed in an agricultural setting are exposed to.”

    While the overarching issue is simple — chemicals used on crops kill bees — the details of the problem are increasingly more complex, including what can be sprayed, where, how, and when to minimize the negative effects on bees and other pollinators while still assisting in crop production. Right now, scientists are still working on discovering the degree to which bees are affected and by what. It will still likely be a long time before solutions are uncovered and put into place. When economics come into play, an outright halt in spraying anything at all anywhere is simply impossible.

    Quartz notes, “Bee populations are so low in the US that it now takes 60% of the country’s surviving colonies just to pollinate one California crop, almonds. And that’s not just a west coast problem—California supplies 80% of the world’s almonds, a market worth $4 billion.”

  • Thanks Mel. Once you get the idea of our predicament, the full reality check, there is that constant question of ‘what to do now?’ It is like a koan, you have to hold it in your mind until your mind lets go, and then, you just know. You know what you’ve always known. You are who you are. We each have our own unique kuliana, our responsibility, our contribution, our expression, our authentic way to be, and so we be in that way. It is our honor and privilege to do so.

    On another note…
    the US military is teaming up with China. Oh, I feel so much safer now.



  • Charles Ornstein’s (Eisenstein?) “Ascent of Humanity”

    “The question remains: palliative/hospice care to improve the quality of the remaining life, or radical and heroic measures directed towards a cure? Keeping in mind that the side effects from undertaking the latter would make it unethical without a reasonable prospect for a cure. ”

    Why radical and heroic measure necessarily? People on NBL, even maybe including you, have pointed out the illusory nature of separateness among the life forms and forces of the world. So wouldn’t the ‘cure’ be to eliminate that separateness? Precluding A DISTINCT heroic effort as opposed to a distinctly NON heroic effort? Going against the paradigm of the grand combative onslaught–St. George against the Dragon–that stands alone?

    The author alludes to the complex nature of everything happening all at once everywhere. Does a ‘curative’ program stand apart from that complexity or does it change the nature of the complexity and make it work in unison like a flight of geese? One approach seems to be masculine (and we all know how well that’s going), and the other feminine.

    But even I my questions were answered in the affirmative, it would require a sort of radical and heroic effort, paradoxically. So the male and female would have to work together…

  • Thanks Mel. Once you get the idea of our predicament, the full reality check, there is that constant question of ‘what to do now?’

    If NBL is any indication, you keep asking that question over and over until the day, or time, you’ve been expecting never comes. Or, some don’t ever make it that far (think ulvfugl), and devote the remainder of their lives gathering evidence, scientific of course, for the always just-around-the-corner collapse and NTE. For example, when and if people want proof of Fukushima nuclear fatalities, you show them the following. It shuts them up real fast.


    The influential writer and cultural critic Christopher Hitchens died on Thursday at the age of 62 from complications of cancer of the esophagus. Hitchens confronted his disease in part by writing, bringing the same unsparing insight to his mortality that he had directed at so many other subjects.

  • Hamburger recipe, I don’t follow your reasoning. In fact, I would say your comment is a string of non-sequiturs.

  • @ Hamburger Bullshit

    Another idiot troll. This one is so garbled it’s impossible to comprehend what it’s trying to puke up.

    The collapse is not just around the corner. We are in it now. Only the perversely insensitive and uninformed can avoid noticing.

    Seems the pro-nuke trolling is trending toward increasing incoherence and stupidity.

    I suppose it’s a tough job to argue in favour of genetic defects and an industry that produces waste that’s lethal for hundreds of thousands of years, and has no clue as to what to do with it, except dump it in a hole somewhere and hope someone else will fix the problem one day.

    These ‘responsible grown up adults’ have put the Japanese mafia, the Yakuza, in charge of sorting out Fukushima.

    Are they the fuckers who pay you and your fellow filth to troll this blog, Hamburger Bullshit ? Well, grab the cash while you can, I suppose, why care about the Pacific, or anyone else or the future or the deformed children, just as long as you get yours, eh.

    Anti-nuclear citizens groups targeted in massive cyber-attack


  • The various manifestations of trolls.

    AKA 60’s flashback No. 2

    Let’s see now is it Ronin or Robin Datta? Ex-military, probably collecting data. Goes on to say: “But then there are those who would rather have their loved ones sliced and diced to delay acknowledging the dire situation.”

    Which camp are you in?


    Thanks for the info on CCD.

    November 11th, 2013 at 3:10 pm

    Some of your posts give me a belly laugh. The one above is outstanding.


    I like your analysis and ability to relate.


    non-sequiters indeed.

    @Christy C

    Bizarro world.

    This is NBL after all.

  • The Ascent of Humanity by Charles Eisenstein

    Eisen = iron
    EisenHower = Iron hewer (ironworker)
    Eisenstein = iron stone

    One terminal “n”: Jewish:

    נון פשותא אלהינו נון פשותא אחד
    My problem with Eisenstein is that he does not holster the gun of coercive enforcement, even though he conceals it quite well.

  • Why radical and heroic measure necessarily?

    They ain’t, particularly if one acknowledges that a cure is no longer feasible.

    illusory nature of separateness among the life forms and forces of the world.

    The separateness in physics congealed very early after the Big Bang. Currently the organisation into discrete biological entities is sustained by the energy flows of non-equilibrium thermodynamics.

    As long as one perceives the “I” to be real, one is within the universe of time-space-causation, and all its separateness. The illusory nature is illusory to one who has realised the “I” to be a mirage, a phantasm. Otherwise, the world and all its separateness is very real.

    The Creation Hymn (Nasadiya Sukta)

    “Then even nothingness was not, nor existence,
    There was no air then, nor the heavens beyond it.
    What covered it? Where was it? In whose keeping
    Was there then cosmic water, in depths unfathomed?”

    “Then there was neither death nor immortality
    nor was there then the torch of night and day.
    The One breathed windlessly and self-sustaining.
    There was that One then, and there was no other.”

    “At first there was only darkness wrapped in darkness.
    All this was only unillumined water.
    That One which came to be, enclosed in nothing,
    arose at last, born of the power of heat.”

    “In the beginning desire descended on it –
    that was the primal seed, born of the mind.
    The sages who have searched their hearts with wisdom
    know that which is is kin to that which is not.”

    “And they have stretched their cord across the void,
    and know what was above, and what below.
    Seminal powers made fertile mighty forces.
    Below was strength, and over it was impulse.”

    “But, after all, who knows, and who can say
    Whence it all came, and how creation happened?
    the gods themselves are later than creation,
    so who knows truly whence it has arisen?”

    “Whence all creation had its origin,
    he, whether he fashioned it or whether he did not,
    he, who surveys it all from highest heaven,
    he knows – or maybe even he does not know.”

    … That was the Unmanifest to which it returns on de-manifesting. in the present interim is the manifest, at least for all those to whom the “I” feels real.

    Which camp are you in?

    The camp with three guest posts on NBL. Check ’em out! You may even come to understand that the references to people’s difficulty acknowledging terminal conditions is from direct observation as an emergency physician.

  • So I googled up an article, which I won’t link to because it says it received a take down notice and that it had been discredited as a fake. So why mention it? Because it mentions some techniques that I’ve noticed myself on various fora (including one that it mentioned that I used to frequent). See if any of this sounds familiar:

    We work on influencing people’s opinions here … I would be assigned to … different websites, with the goal of entering certain discussions and promoting a certain view … meme-patrol … The first section contained basic background info on the topic. I would have to read and memorize some of this … The second, and larger, section was … long lists of “dialogue pairs.” These were specific responses to specific postings. If a poster wrote something close to “X,” we were supposed to respond with something close to “Y.” … a number of hints for derailing conversations that went too far away from what we were attempting. These strategies included various forms of personal attacks, complaining to the forum moderators, smearing the characters of our opponents, using images and icons effectively, and even dragging the tone of the conversation down with sexual innuendo, links to pornography, or other such things … The site-specific info in the second binder included a brief history each site, including recent flame-wars, as well as info on what to avoid on each site so as not to get banned. It also had quite detailed info on the moderators and the most popular posters on each site: location (if known), personality type, topics of interest, background sketch, and even some notes on how to “push the psychological buttons” of different posters. … Focus on the popular posters,” my trainer told me. “These are the influential ones” … there were even notes on strategies for dealing with specific hostile posters … mostly you’ll be attacking them and trying to smear them … A lot of my job was de-railing and spamming threads that didn’t go our way

    A few years back I was a semi-regular on The Oil Drum. That was perhaps the most impressive set of posters I have ever seen collected in an on-line forum (most of them far above my pay grade). So when trolls (if not paid shills, you can never really be sure) appeared and started disrupting the conversation I was concerned. A front page post would regularly get 1000+ comments in those days, and there were a few posts per day. After a few months of trolling the site was getting jammed up. Practically every conversation was being disrupted.

    That’s where I wrote my first blacklist plugin. TOD had threaded comments, so I could blacklist a comment by a particular user and all the comments that responded to him, plus all the comments in response to that one, etc. It counted the top-level blocks (alpha), and the response blocks (beta) separately.

    The results were interesting. The alpha posts only amounted to perhaps a couple dozen in a thread of 1000 comments, but the betas were half the traffic. Literally.

    With some trial and error I was able to determine that my blacklist only needed two names. Two guys were tying the whole site in knots, and with relatively few posts. Eventually those two were banned and the site returned to normal.

    One of them wandered over to DailyKos, but he wasn’t an aggressive troll there. I’m pretty sure he was an amateur just throwing bombs for fun. Those are the ones that move on if you refuse to engage them.

    The other guy, if not a professional, certainly acted like one. Every scrap of any conversation that proceeded from the assumption that Peak Oil was a thing was entered and disrupted. It was hard to even follow all those threads, much less participate in them, but there he was, every time, confronting each poster and stopping any substantive conversation. If he wasn’t doing it for a living, he certainly had no other life.

    The key feature of these posters is that they are trying to disrupt conversations. Engaging them is not productive. Calling them out may not be productive (regardless of how good it feels). There are also genuine posters that are still forming their opinions and want to engage in constructive debate. Calling them trolls does everyone a disservice.

    It’s not that normal people are acting like trolls, it’s that trolls masquerade as normal people to worm their way into the conversation.

    The existence of paid shills is controversial, but product review sites are widely suspected of having positive reviews written by the product vendor, and negative reviews written by competitors.

    More people are getting more of their information from the Internet than from traditional media. Ask yourself, if you had a budget and were trying to influence public opinion, could you really ignore controlling the discussion at influential sites?

    When I make my blacklist plugin available (this is the third site I’ve done one for) I always disable it to see who complains about how I’m a horrible person for censoring speech. Oddly enough, those are always the ones I had on my ignore list. Nobody else complains.

    What’s that Twilight Zone where people suspect their neighbors of being aliens? That is what can happen if we start seeing trolls under the bed.

    Still, be aware of the signs. Don’t feed the trolls. They can’t disrupt the discussion if they are ignored.

    I’ve posted a few times recently that I think we are being targeted. That means individuals (amateur trolls) or groups (paid shills, if there are such) have identified this as an important blog. Who knew? I thought we were just a few old doomers washed up on the Beach of Doom like driftwood, telling each other ghost stories by the campfire.

    Perhaps Guy and his message are becoming more influential that we may have thought.

  • @ ogardener

    Grrrr :-)

    @ KK

    I am 32 and I don’t have 50 years :| I guess… I will just have to make do with whatever I can, but hey I can always listen to other people and look for that elusive piece where you are no longer listening to the music, you are experiencing it.

    nobody else plays what I want to hear, so I have to try and play it myself, but I can never find it, just sometimes I get close enough to make me want to keep trying and searching… if you know what I mean :)

    Yeah… I hear you and I would like to hear some more

    I see from your blog that you are a fan of Masanobu Fukuoka, and any follower of Fukuoka is a friend of mine, so I uploaded some more Beach of Doom finger picking for you, should be ten tracks there now.

  • @ulvfug!l

    I was hoping you would post your music links again. Very nice.
    I love music that has its roots in the call and response, field holler, and african trance. I was born and partially raised in Mississippi, so this music is in my bones.
    The late great R. L. Burnside …. something extremely dark, beautiful, and real going on here….


    Interesting article on trolls. Makes perfect sense. Thanks for sharing.

  • @WoodsDweller — Let me second Wren. What a valuable contribution to a mostly-innocent site discussing the most important topic. Ever.

    I wonder what kind of threat they think we might be? But then — the cliché about the truth being the most powerful thing. I’m not so sure anymore, but if they think so, then I’m willing to go along.

    We might not end IndCiv, but they must be looking ahead at impending panic cutting into their profit forecasts, and, with a budget to spend, why not keep a few more good quarters coming by keeping people “in the dark”? (Not “Going Dark”)

    I say “let ’em have it” — It’s WE who are now experiencing the Colony Collapse Disorder FKling so generously gave us news of above, and we used to be such Busy Bees, didn’t we?

  • The other guy, if not a professional, certainly acted like one. Every scrap of any conversation that proceeded from the assumption that Peak Oil was a thing was entered and disrupted. It was hard to even follow all those threads, much less participate in them, but there he was, every time, confronting each poster and stopping any substantive conversation. If he wasn’t doing it for a living, he certainly had no other life.

    I would like to third what Henry and Wren have said, WoodsDweller. The italicized quote you provided above describes ulvfugl precisely. Thank you for describing it (ulvfugl) so articulately. Who would have thought a WoodsDweller would know so much about computers? Things sure have changed from the Grizzly Adams days. No way Grizzly Adams would have had a computer, let alone the IT know-how to develop censoring applications for various blogs.

  • @ Nakuma

    Thanks for the kind words, but I do not regard our friend ulvfugl as such. He just talks too damned much. I have yet to see him disrupt a significant conversation, if anything he cuts through some rubbish and tries to steer things back on-topic. We have a number of primary topics here, not just climate science but learning how to cope with this awful knowledge.

    I hesitated to post at all because it is too easy to start a witch-hunt. I’ve already seen more accusations than I’m comfortable with. The posters I suspect have been rather clumsy, and most haven’t stuck around long. More like drive-bys.

    All I’m saying is be aware, and enjoy your conversations without allowing yourselves to be taunted or baited.

    I spent far too much time on forums, and have for a number of years. I find myself watching the watchers, and I’m sure they watch me in turn.

  • Mel Strawn’s essential question, “What to do?” has gripped me for the last 4 years.
    I have chosen the Keyser Soze/Ghandi options.
    Keyser Soze killed his family to be invulnerable to manipulation. Gandhi is reported to have said ‘Be the change you want to see’, or there abouts.

    I have become intentionally homeless, whilst still earning some competitive fiat currency, developing edible gardens in my neighborhood for my family and others, (steep learning curve), and also adapting to an itinerant way of existing, within this community. I walk almost everywhere.(Ha Ha) Hitch and get public transport when needed. Incidentally, this community, Blackheath, in the Blue Mountains in NSW Afraidia, is where the fires just came through.

    ‘State of emergency declared as bushfire conditions worsen’

    October 20, 2013

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/state-of-emergency-declared-as-bushfire-conditions-worsen-20131020-2vuqu.html#ixzz2kP9t1yS8


    I have designed some climate mitigation pods(from what is usually know as junk) for the extremes of cold, wind and heat, so plants can be moved, or surrounds moved to plants so they stay producing during the extremes.
    None of these measures would work for everyone, nor in every location – no way, and no hopium there. But they may have a chance of working here, where I live and where the local spirits can be heard.

    I can’t believe that I am the only one developing mitigation shells, and understanding it will come down to some critical forward thinking for the several thousand breeding pairs of modern poeples left to survive for a time.

    Survive for what…?

    To just fucking survive OK.

    Does anyone really know why they are alive? You do when the typhoon hits. You want to survive, and not be ripped away from the ones you love, and this world.
    Well the latest news in is that no one gets out embodied forever alive – for the vast majority that means death. It is all about how and when, and on what terms, if there are terms.

    The answer I give to that question is fight, strive, and give up the silly ways now!… be in a state of material and caloric renunciation as much as you can. That way as the climate catastrophe comes to your village, town or city, in whatever form and however many times it whacks you, you will be in a state of awareness, readiness, and change to a more adapted circumstance that correlated with our prehistoric evolution.
    Oh yeah, there is no need to be morose either. You will meet the most amazing people and have the time of your life….

    Just for the wowsers. Very few would embrace disaster in the local field of experience with glee. That is not what I propose. But just get ready for the new now, and let go of all that can be ripped from your grasp. For me my family, or to be more precise, the rather ‘normal’ form, structure and dynamics of family life, and letting go of that, has been a recent key to understanding how to find local solutions to some of the big problems. A family is a set of complex and changing but strong relations between people, not a house and all its demographic inputs and indices of consumption added to the illusion of GDP.
    I selected this community very carefully, and by good fortune happened to be born here. I would not try this ‘experiment’ in just any community. It has to have the needed component of cussy, cummudgeony, old timers, some fit youngens, and some geographic features one can relate to and use in relationship to the land.

    Like Kevin Spacey eloquently states….
    “…you just needed the will to do what the other guy wouldn’t”

    Keyser Soze (The Story)

    Although Spacy is referring to being in power in a competitive mob town setting, I am parleying the metaphor to that of outwitting NTE, and those odds are the ones I can handle.

    The recent hits to places like Pakistan(floods):

    List of floods in Pakistan,

    Pacific rim( 2004 Earthquake and tsunami)and the devastating typhoon in Philippines/Vietnam are not to be dismissed, nor is the Arctic Methane Emergency that is adding to the pressure, nor the recent Northern hemisphere heat wave destruction to grain and food production, and I propose no illusions about how these events will wreck our present ways of life.

    What gets me is how unconscious those in governance are. They just go and rebuild the same structures and way of living, like termites hit by a raiding Aardvark. A natural enough instinct perhaps, but if we want to survive, we have to use every last calorie on Sapient action and adaptation, not just brute force of rehashing older paradigms.

    I am well aware of the taboo here of speaking about any survival. I know, I know …. very silly to talk of such a thing, especially here. But just think of the other options, and you will perhaps rapidly see as I have, that to live in the flow of now, is the only fully alive existence we now need, if we want our instincts to bring forth the solutions, (admittedly perhaps not world wide in application).

    Wishing all well, and missing the three ladies muchly.

    Cheers from Afraidia.

  • @ Nakuma

    The italicized quote you provided above describes ulvfugl precisely. Thank you for describing it (ulvfugl) so articulately.

    You think so, do you, Nakuma ?

    And what words would describe you precisely ?

    Perhaps you would like to introduce yourself, as I don’t recall ever having seen your name here previously. You know, politely tell us whereabouts in the world you live, and then what your take is on the situation. Maybe on the topic of the thread, or on Dr. McPherson’s analysis ?

    You see, I really like to get to know people, as individuals, and anybody who is a bona fide contributor who wants to understand stuff and discuss stuff is welcome.
    However, this is the ONLY blog where NTE is understood and discussed, and as such, it easily gets swamped by people with all kinds of agendas, so, as I see it, in the course of making this clear, a good deal of friction and hostility is inevitable.

    NTE is possibly the most emotive topic it it possible to discuss. Drive-by trolls lobbing rocks are annoying. Probably the best way to
    show you are not one of those by introducing yourself, establishing an honest identity and learning what this blog is about by listening to Guy’s lectures.

    @ Wren

    Thanks so much for the compliments :-)

    I spent a lot of time with that twelve bar blues thing, I have to say I can’t bear it any more, nor anything that sounds like chord sequences, or harmony, or melody, or any of that stuff… pretty much means that 80% of music freaks me out, nowadays :-)

    Here’s something I like

  • @ ulvfugl, logspirit & other beach bums :)

    Thankyou for taking the time to read the words that I put together.


    @ logspirit (from the previous thread)

    Realizing the uniqueness / individuality of everything was the first half. Just about 2 years back, I had a very opposite realization that everything is one. I haven’t quite been able to put it in words. This dance of duality and non-duality is so exquisite. Words are such a limited medium to express such thoughts. Perhaps the flaw is mine and I have lacked in skill and determination.

    In light of recent events in my life, I sense The oneness pushing mi out of my numb comfort zone again. I am going to give it another shot, let’s see how this attempt goes…


    @ ulvfugl

    I see from your blog that you are a fan of Masanobu Fukuoka, and any follower of Fukuoka is a friend of mine, so I uploaded some more Beach of Doom finger picking for you, should be ten tracks there now.

    I am trying to follow him, it is not easy. To be honest, my efforts so far have been mostly infantile and futile :|

    To be called a fan and follower would be an honor, I don’t think I quite deserve, someday perhaps, but not today.

    ulvfugl the music is really good, thank you for sharing :)

    eyes shut tight,
    relief glistens watermarks,


    @ Robin

    After reading Sandman, I always felt Neil Gaiman got that the order of the Endless wrong, the first of the Endless should have been Desire. I see that I am in the company of truly wise people :D


    Just wondering, where is Benjamin?


    Peace to all.

    To the fiddle :D

  • http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2013/11/new-climate-realism-at-un-conference.html

    New climate realism at U.N. conference – ‘The fiscal reality of the United States and other developed countries is not going to allow it’

    On Monday, 11 Nov 2013, representatives of 195 nations will convene in Warsaw as the United Nations climate change negotiations begin their 19th annual meeting. Many climate experts in the U.S. have written off the UN process after years of dysfunction and limited results. But there is now a glimmer of hope that for the first time an agreement can be reached by 2015 in which all major economies reduce or slow their greenhouse emissions.

    The irony is that progress will be made precisely to the extent that hard-nosed US negotiators successfully challenge counterproductive expectations and initiatives dreamed up by European Union and UN officials. In fact, the US must impose new realism about the limits of international climate change policy if a deal to curb global emissions is to occur. Fortunately, the Obama administration’s ambitious domestic measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions now provide the U.S. the moral and policy authority to lead.

    UN officials and developing countries have concocted the notion, for example, that the U.S. and other developed countries should finance a Green Climate Fund to help developing nations adapt to climate change and invest in low-emissions growth. While developed nations assented in principle to such a Fund in Copenhagen in 2009, they did not commit to specific dollar amounts. Nonetheless, UN leaders and climate activists have spent years establishing the expectation that this fund will total $100 billion annually by 2020.

    To his credit, top U.S. climate envoy Todd Stern made clear in a speech last month in London that such expectations for the fund are fanciful.

    “The fiscal reality of the United States and other developed countries is not going to allow it,” Stern said, noting that the U.S. already provides $2.5 billion in climate assistance each year to developing countries. Some developing country ministers continue to insist massive payments must be a precondition to an agreement on emissions levels, but budget realities in the EU and US have become impossible to ignore. Aid, both public and private, for the poorest countries can indeed increase modestly, but clearing the deck of the annual $100 billion fallacy is necessary to achieve progress on other fronts.

    Stern has also made clear that the U.S. has no intention of negotiating a climate agreement that is legally binding under international law, as UN and EU bureaucrats are unrealistically insisting. “An agreement that is animated by the progressive development of norms and expectations rather than the hard edge of law, compliance and penalty has a much better chance of working,” he said in London, describing a process of national pledges and international reviews.


    There you have it, folks – it’s official, the “developed nations” ain’t playin’ – so we can expect to stay on this ride until it goes off the rails (as we suspected all along).

    Mel: thanks for sharing your thoughts in the essay above. How does this UN climate change (in)decision impact your thoughts? Is it what you would do as a leader of a (former) “super-power?” Are we “locked in” to this due to economic forces, even though it causes our demise?

    ulvfugl: thanks for the music and your thoughts as we watch the collapse ramp up week by week (while others deny it’s even happening).
    Here’s the latest:

    from arctic-news.blogspot.co.nz/2013/11/methane-levels-going-through-the-roof.html

    On November 9, 2013, methane readings well over 2600 ppb were recorded at multiple altitudes

    Recent peak levels of methane over the Arctic Ocean may well have been even higher, since NOAA didn’t release any readings for November 5-7, 2013.

    Lots of facts and data here, including a link to The Cryosphere Today. The only problem is it ends with:

    “Hopefully, more people will realize the urgency of the situation and realize the need for a comprehensive and effective plan of action as described here.”

    Always the hopium at the end. As I pointed out above, there won’t be any “action” except business as usual.

    Wren: good link! Thanks.

    There’s a ton of news out of Fukushima @ seemorerocks today. None of it is “good.” It seems that it gets “worse than we imagined” every day anymore. All these converging catastrophes are sure to have an impact on an oblivious civilization before long. We should be thankful for every moment we still have that’s “normal” because, by all indications, it isn’t going to last.

    good day everyone

  • “The camp with three guest posts on NBL.”

    Ah. The pomposity of the enlightened. Ronin.

  • oh, I almost forgot:

    Remember when the U.S. and Israel made the computer virus Stuxnet that caused damage to Iran’s nuke facility? Well, guess what’s coming back to bite us (and even the space station) in the ass?


    America and Israel Created a Monster Computer Virus Which Now Threatens Nuclear Reactors Worldwide

    In their obsession to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons, the U.S. and Israel created a computer virus (called “Stuxnet”) to take out Iran’s nuclear reactors.

    The virus appears to have spread to other countries.

    One of the world’s top computer security experts – Eugene Kaspersky – said this week that the virus has attacked a Russian nuclear reactor. As The Register notes:

    The infamous Stuxnet malware thought to have been developed by the US and Israel to disrupt Iran’s nuclear facilities, also managed to cause chaos at a Russian nuclear plant, according to Eugene Kaspersky.

    The revelation came during a Q&A session after a speech at Australia’s National Press Club last week, in which he argued that those spooks responsible for “offensive technologies” don’t realise the unintended consequences of releasing malware into the wild.

    “Everything you do is a boomerang,” he added. “It will get back to you.”


    “Unfortunately, it’s very possible that other nations which are not in a conflict will be victims of cyber attacks on critical infrastructure,” said Kaspersky.

    “It’s cyber space. [There are] no borders, [and many facilities share the] same systems.”

    Not finished there, Kaspersky also claimed to have heard from “Russian space guys” in the know that even machines on the International Space Station had been infected “from time to time” after scientists arrived aboard with infected USBs.

  • Fantastic post by Mel Strawn. My thoughts exactly. I go to work each day, relax on the weekends, and stare out the window of this runaway train. I have no 401k and my net worth is negative. In the traditional sense, I have no future. Just waiting. Yes, I get frustrated as I am not a scientist and I relied on others’ predictions of impending doom to guide me. Each day it gets harder to hang on.

    @ Woodsdweller: yes, but two things really work here: the two post a day rule and the fact that Guy “posts anew” frequently. Before the two post a day rule, this blog was almost wholly dominated by one voice – not a troll, just a long-winded blabbermouth that almost ruined it for everyone. The recent influx of noisy posters is just the price we pay for having this open forum.

    The Voluntary Extinction Movement
    Thou shalt not procreate.

    The Church of Euthanasia
    Save the planet, kill yourself.

  • In the NY Times (of all places):


    Badlands: Your writing is brilliant, poignant, funny, always a bright light in dark times . . . keep it up—— perhaps a book?

    Guy: thank you

  • I’m still here- listening and learning on NBL- just as I have been for years silently (mostly).

  • @ Caroline and Badlands:

    I agree. I find Badland’s writing to be comforting and lovely in both content and cadence.
    This might sound funny, but I have a mental picture of the posters here being the Lost Boys, and Badlands as Wendy – their young surrogate mother. Guy is Peter, but who is Hook?

  • Hi OzMan,

    Great to see you again. I appreciated everything about your post. My partner keeps recommending a proper little greenhouse, and I’m so averse to commercial products that I fudge around with cost free “innovations” instead. The trouble is that my few garden plants are struggling in this cold, even with a hodgepodge of plastic sheeting over them (or parts of them). If I’m not going to do the hodgepodge thing better, a tiny greenhouse might be best. :-) Keep fighting the good fight.

    @ Caroline

    Were you referring to a specific Badlands post? I haven’t seen much from her recently.

  • @ Tom

    Thanks !

    @ pat

    ..this blog was almost wholly dominated by one voice – not a troll, just a long-winded blabbermouth that almost ruined it for everyone.

    Hahaha, I assume you are referring to ME, pat, but don’t have the guts to name names. Well, for the record, I was attacked as soon as I appeared here, and pretty much ever since, by various people. I don’t mind that. If someone kicks me, I kick back. For the record, I offered to leave. Guy declined my offer. He has asked me, more than once, to tone down my rhetoric, which I’ve attempted to do. I’ve also learned a lot since I’ve been here. Not least, to respect and admire some of the people here. I only get the one lifetime. Time is short and I have a lot to say. You, by contrast, what do you have to say ? ‘I hate U’ and ‘Save the planet, kill yourself’. Yeah. Very fucking impressive, I’m sure all our lives are enriched by your wisdom, eh.

    Imho, WoodsDweller is naive re the trolling. There are rented out office spaces in run down cities, (kinda similar to the sort of organisations that do phone sex, where middle aged matrons pretend to be sexy young things and keep clients on the line for as long as possible paying premium rates). These services are disreputable organisations that rent out the service of disrupting forums and hacking into servers and so forth. Every night spiders crawl the entire internet collecting all the latest blog posts. There was an article about this years ago on Naked Capitalism. These get summarised by keywords, and the next morning, there’ll be a list on the computer for the boss to run through, so he’ll see whatever he’s being paid to see, mentions of Israel, or Monsanto, or Obama, or whatever, and then the staff will supply comments to neutralise anything they deem as hostile to the client that’s paying them.

    Who knows if that is happening, it’s not something that’s easy to prove. But given the situation re Fukushima, it’s something one might expect. And given the attacks upon Guy recently, and the obvious threat that the ideas discussed here pose towards industry and capitalism and Big Oil and so forth, imo, it would be very surprising if this blog did NOT get subjected to attacks.

    6. Hit and Run. In any public forum, make a brief attack of your opponent or the opponent position and then scamper off before an answer can be fielded, or simply ignore any answer. This works extremely well in Internet and letters-to-the-editor environments where a steady stream of new identities can be called upon without having to explain criticism, reasoning — simply make an accusation or other attack, never discussing issues, and never answering any subsequent response, for that would dignify the opponent’s viewpoint.


  • @ ulvfugl

    Who knows if that is happening, it’s not something that’s easy to prove.

    That’s exactly the point I was trying to make. If it isn’t actually happening, it sure looks like it is. I vaguely recall someone managing to prove a political shill operation existed a few years back, but I can’t remember the details enough to find it. The key word being “prove”.

    You also get amateurs who internalize the message from denier sites and go off to reputable sites to spread the word. You’ll see repeated keywords used in posts (I’ve noticed an undue usage of “alarmist” recently) – is it because they got a printed list of instructions from their boss or because they all read the same denialist articles whose authors repeat those keywords (on instructions from their boss)? Hard to tell, but the results are similar. It’s all part of the larger cross-media propaganda operation we call modern life.

    Hit and Run or what I was calling drive-by. That takes the least skill, since there is no lead-up to working your way into the community, and no responses encouraging “Someone is Wrong on the Internet Syndrome”. In fact, I wonder if some drive-bys are actually bots, particularly the ones that are somewhat disjoint and hard to understand.

    If we are being targeted (and I think we are), they are definitely sending the B-team.

  • @ WoodsDweller

    That’s exactly the point I was trying to make.

    Oh, sorry, I misread your meaning then. Or maybe it is the A team and they really are that bad ? Hahaha, I mean, it’s a really shitty job that no smart person is going to put their heart and soul into, telling lies for money for some cause you don’t understand or care about… Dilbert territory.

    @ Wren

    Btw, didn’t mean to knock Mr Burnside and that music, I loved that music for years, but my tastes have gone very strange and selective. I mean, like food, most food you can buy now is disgusting processed synthetic crap full of nasty additives, and seems to me most music is much the same, but THIS I love, home made music for the people, by the people, and a home made instrument, and it’s SO CLOSE to BLIND WILLIE JOHNSON – Trouble will soon be over, just amazing, no twelve bar thing

  • People who have suffered greatly tend to go quiet. Behold the great exception! Most who have a lot to say at least try to be decent prose stylists. Behold the great exception!

  • For some, their cross is like their cock. They’re always talking it up and flaunting it like a badge of honor as though it defines them and their prowess. But, when you strip them bare naked, it’s often revealed the cock/cross isn’t quite up to snuff. They can’t, and don’t, deliver the goods. It’s all billowing bluster. This Pufferfish comes to mind. Vain, yet strategic, attempts to appear larger than one is at peace.


  • Ah. The pomposity of the enlightened. Ronin.

    The camp of pomposity then? 8-)

  • @ ulvfgl:

    Thanks for the link, I like that music (and yours) in the same way I love the wall of sound in the nights of southern summer… of crickets, katydids, cicadas, and locusts. A three dimensional acoustic fabric, which changes as the seasons progress, and can include bullfrogs, toad song, wood frogs, and spring peepers. It isn’t a narrative like a regular human song, but rather a space where my internal dialogue can blissfully disappear into that fabric. I miss that here in the vast silence of the northwest.

  • George Carlin’s view…

    “people walking around, all day long…. worried about everything”

    Tom… is that you?

  • I want to recommend Barbara Kingsolver’s /Flight Behavior/, which seems to resonate with Mel Strawn’s essay.

  • @WoodsDweller:

    Great article on trolls, it mirrors my thinking pretty much down the line. I was on TOD a lot back then, and I remember posters like those you mention, and the damage they did. The two-post rule here makes a huge difference.

    ulvfugl may be an intense and difficult cat, but he ain’t no troll. He calls it like he sees it, without sanding off the rougher edges like most of us do. Anyone who can comprehend the implications of my thermodynamic hypothesis after just one read of that egregious paper by Rod Swenson – and say so publicly – is no troll.

  • @ Artleads
    (from previous thread) Thanks. All art comes from the heart.

    @ KK
    I don’t see any distinction between the unique particular arrangement of things in each moment and the entirety of the whole. As many great sages have said, ‘change is the only constant’. We should all try to make the most of the remaining moments. None of this will ever happen again. The contraction of our future intensifies it.

  • @ Paul Chefurka


    When I was about six or seven, there was a beautiful place, vast fields of wild flowers full of moths and butterflies and ponds with newts and frogs, and huge ancient trees, and many birds, and then ‘they’ came along and just erased it all off the landscape and replaced it with concrete and tarmac and massive brutalist architectural monstrosities as a University campus.

    Much the same as happened where Guy worked. For me, I just knew, intuitively, that was something wrong and terrible and a crime of some kind, but nobody else agreed, everybody thought it was great, and I’ve pretty much been in disagreement with the majority of the soceity surrounding me every since.To the extent of angry and bitter hostility. Because I’ve been proven right.

    Spent a year on the Dark Mountain, waiting for those fuckers to get their act together, which never happened. Took me a while after I arrived here to get over some of that fury and rage. Daniel’s epic post had a lot to do with it. Since then, well, we all come to terms with this in our own ways, and mutual commiseration is some kind of solace and communion, I suppose. Took me a while to appreciate that others here had the same honest insight and suffering and process to go through. Took me a while to comprehend why we were congregating on the Beach of Doom, such an odd mix, milling about…

    Personally, I’m convinced we get NTE. But I could be mistaken. I think we are on the threshold of immense global upheaval, akin to the historical turmoil of the Protestant Reformation in Europe or the English Civil War or the French or Russian Revolutions, when everybody’s ideas get thrown up in the air and all the time-worn assumptions fall apart, just as the biosphere simultaneously collapses all around us. What could possibly prevent or avoid NTE ? I cannot see anything at all.

    There’s a huge diversity of views here. Which is a very valuable thing. My view is just my own view. Every day I read a tremendous amount of material, trying to keep up with everything that is going on, watching for anything that might be relevant that could effect my judgement and cause me to adjust my estimation, keeping my mental model updated.

    Today we’re riding a swelling wave of near-simultaneous global mass democratic “awakening,” almost global mass uprising. This global insurrection is still in its infancy, still unsure of its future, but its radical democratic instincts are, I believe, humanity’s last best hope. Let’s make history!

    I’ve some confidence that people can do this. They’ll rise up and rip down The Machine, at great cost. But I have NO confidence that that solves the problem, because the problem is ecological overshoot and the collapse of the biosphere causing a mass extinction event, and global mass uprising doesn’t fix that problem.


    I think that there’s a lot of people pinning their hopes on that ‘humanity’s last best hope’. I think that’s what the attacks on Guy and the Facebook stuff and the trolling are about.

    People like the idea that if they work really really hard, then they’ll succeed and get to go on a holiday, and Guy is the nasty doctor who comes along and says ‘Sorry, it’s a terminal disease, only three weeks to live. No holiday’, and they get very upset, and decide to shoot the doctor… but it’s still a terminal disease and only three weeks, and no holiday…

    It’s not what people desire or think they want or are entitled to have, that decides what will happen, it’s the laws of physics and biology. It’s hopeless, nobody gets it, they all think that if only they try harder, look harder, there’s some magic fix somewhere in the magic box…

  • @ Wren

    Yes. There’s musicians – without mentioning names – who I adored earlier in my life, listened to all day, that I can’t listen to at all now, whole genres of music I can’t abide.

    But then what do I like ? I’ve searched all through youtube for years trying to find what I want to hear, and not hearing it, so that was partly what made me conclude I should play it myself. But I’m no good at it. I just fumble about until I find something I like and record it, and then forget it, and the next time do something quite different, always searching, never quite finding :-) Something, like you said, texture, rhythm, getting absorbed, lost in the doing of it. :-)

    I recall you mentioned the evil of Descartes. Francis Bacon, another…

    Bacon promoted a science in which the experimenter abdicates all responsibility for the results of his discoveries. In fact Bacon was the only thinker of his day to unite scientific knowledge with ethical ideals, as he was the first to evolve a concept of fraternity in ‘learning and illumination’ among scientists of all countries, ‘joining forces for the common good’. Bacon presents his new scientist – neither ‘Schoolman’ nor magus, but a ‘pioner’ (or digger) in the mine of truth – with ‘tears of tenderness’ for his fellow beings in his eyes. And it is because he envisaged a succession of such scientists, handing down the torch of a continuous tradition, at his symbolic ‘Promethean Games’, that Loren Eiseley described Bacon as ‘the first great statesman of science’. But as a statesman Bacon was also aware of the dangers of scientific knowledge, and, on setting forth his plan of work for the Great Instauration, he confessedto ‘inward hesitations and scruples’. The new learning, he feared, ‘might open a fountain’, and who could tell where its waters would fall? Alone among the forerunners of modern science Bacon foresaw the possibility of that ‘rape of Minerva (wise nature), by Vulcan (the mechanical arts)’, which we have since perpetrated. His myth of ‘Daedalus, or the Mechanic’ – famous for his ‘pernicious genius’, ‘unlawful inventions’ and ‘depraved applications’ – sounds a dire warning against the ‘imperfect births and lame works’ which ‘chemical productions and mechanical subtleties’ could lead to, if mechanical art should attempt ‘to force Nature to its will. And well we know how far in cruelty and destructiveness they exceed the Minotaur himself.’


    @ Martin

    People who have suffered greatly tend to go quiet.

    Hahahaha… Do they ? Who says ? People like you ? How the hell do you know ? Citations ? Is there a LAW ? Like where commas are supposed to go and fucking splitting infinitives ?

    Most who have a lot to say at least try to be decent prose stylists.

    Why ? To impress people like you ? Why would anyone bother ? Fucking pedant. Talk about non sequiturs. Where are YOUR blog posts ?
    If you ever made an interesting or relevant comment on this blog, Martin, I must have missed it.

    Usage ROOLZ over rules, Martin. You can spell, but you go nuffin to say.

    Your endeavour to gain control and power and enforce class structure by means of grammar and codifying the use of the English language has collapsed, Martin. There’s a whole generation now who say ‘u r’ instead of ‘you are’ and ‘peeps’ and ‘ppl’ instead of ‘people’ and they don’t give a shit about your rules and pedantry and there’s nothing you can do about that.

    Language is, and always was, about communication. People like you tried to make it into something else, a command and control exercise, where authority and domination could be exerted by some spurious appeal to the ‘correct’ form of the Queen’s English as taught to the Upper Class and approved with Official Stamps.

    But it always was bullshit and bluff, just a means to give officious little bureaucratic minds like your own something to feel superior about in their anally retentive quest for a place in the social hierarchy.

    Sticking pins through dead butterflies – to quote logspirit – and arranging them in neat rows, so much tidier than having them flapping about all over the place, pleases people like you, doesn’t it. An achievement.

    It’s the satisfaction that the man who paints the white lines in the car park gets from having done a good job. Neat little boxes to confine neat spaces.

    But you’ve lost, Martin. It was all in vain. Nobody cares. Computer code showed that there are a zillion ways to write language, texting showed that twiddling thumbs and emoticons works, nobody needs your pedantry, NTE will sweep away the whole lot, as if it never happened, and your pitiful passive-aggressive niggles and attempts to get my attention don’t merit the time I’ve devoted to you.

    Martin arrives at the Pearly Gates. St. Peter says, ‘Ah yes, whilst the whole world was in flames, as the children starved and drowned, as the animals and plants and the human race became extinct, you were the fellow who was obsessed with where some fool put their apostrophes and semicolons. That was your priority, your contribution. What a shame.’

    @ Solaris

    You’re a disgrace. Not just rude and ignorant but boring too. Carlin had been posted a hundred times already. Can’t you find something interesting ? Behave like a troll, treated like a troll.

    Tom is a valued member of this community. YOU ??

  • Infinite Stupidity, the gift that keeps giving…

    America and Israel Created a Monster Computer Virus Which Now Threatens Nuclear Reactors Worldwide

    In their obsession to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons, the U.S. and Israel created a computer virus (called “Stuxnet”) to take out Iran’s nuclear enrichment machinery.

    The virus appears to have spread to other countries.

    One of the world’s top computer security experts – Eugene Kaspersky – said this week that the virus has attacked a Russian nuclear reactor.

    It also seems to have reached computers on the ISS.



    @ logspirit

    ‘change is the only constant’. We should all try to make the most of the remaining moments. None of this will ever happen again. The contraction of our future intensifies it.

    I couldn’t agree more, but the situation just gets the better of mi on days like these and I struggle to keep my sanity and not take it out on someone / something.


    @ pat

    In the traditional sense, I have no future. Just waiting. Yes, I get frustrated as I am not a scientist and I relied on others’ predictions of impending doom to guide me. Each day it gets harder to hang on.

    Hang on buddy, hang in there.

    Hmmm… was that for you or mi?

    Perhaps all / most of us.



    People like the idea that if they work really really hard, then they’ll succeed and get to go on a holiday, and Guy is the nasty doctor who comes along and says ‘Sorry, it’s a terminal disease, only three weeks to live. No holiday’, and they get very upset, and decide to shoot the doctor… but it’s still a terminal disease and only three weeks, and no holiday…

    Ran into a couple of those really hard working peoples yesterday evening, they almost managed to motivate mi to put an end to my misery.

    This IS a concentration camp.


    What I could give to be in the company of a kindred soul, online interactions just don’t cut it. I was wondering, if I ever came across another person who groks NTE, I would have absolutely nothing to talk about. I would just sit there and smile, and yet, online interactions are not fulfilling enough.



    To the fiddle :D

  • @ ulvfugl

    I’m sorry that I hurt your feelings, ulvfugl. I promise I won’t make any more barbed comments.

  • @ Martin

    Creepy passive-aggressive bullshit, Martin. Post something interesting.

  • I can’t. I don’t have anything interesting to say.

  • I’ve been thinking that the reason nothing gets to the heart of change is that IC’s reach is so huge and out of control. It’s as if some disease has metastasized and the patient must die. At the same time, there is the contradictory notion that mainstream society is caught up in a swoon. A swoon might be like a pleasurable, hypnotic narrative that draws everyone in and leads them to the river to drown. A counter-swoon (a hypnotizing beauty), best led by the arts, can perhaps redirect and reprogram the negative swoon. To what end, I dare not speculate.

    FWIW, an artist I consider worthy of much more attention is Amadeo Modigliani. I just Googled Modigliani + images, and was intrigued by (or to be reminded regarding) his synthesis of Western and African art and of his generation’s daring leap into the void. Wikipedia discusses his formative years, including the influence of Nietzsche and Baudelaire, among many other revolutionary thinkers. And I have been thinking that while the money changers have taken firm hold of artists of his generation, we have barely scratched the surface of their deeper significance.

  • ^Oh my, isn’t that the sweetest thing you ever done seen? Two prodigious dicks (Martin and ulvfugl) kissing and making up after yet another cock fight. Lately there’s been commentary about what this blog is, so I have to ask, is this cock fighting and kissing and making up after also what this blog is, or do you get to pick and choose what this blog is if, and only if, what it is supports your tenuous argument at the moment? What a magnanimous way to spend your final moments on Earth. I’m sure Carlin has a skit on such behavior as well. ulvfugl doesn’t like Carlin when someone he doesn’t respect posts it. When someone he does respect posts some Carlin, it’s all good. Is this inconsistency surprising? Not at all. It’s expected for those who’ve been observing all this time.

    ulvfugl said this about potential negative feedbacks on the other thread.

    I don’t think there are any. I also looked into it. Possibly heating means more water vapour means more clouds means cooling, but that turned out to mean greater storms and deluges and more heat trapped by clouds, and mostly was a negative feedback as defined in meteorology not as defined in climatology. But I’m not any authority on this, so please keep digging, maybe you’ll find something.

    The part that made me laugh so hard I nearly crapped my pants was the “I’m not an authority on this.” Really? You’re not an authority? You could have fooled me. You’re an authority on most everything, if not everything, and yet you add that little disclaimer at the end for good measure. Supreme irony. You never disappoint.

    ulvfugl’s brand of science, you have to love it. “I don’t think there are any.” That’s about as unscientific a statement as one can make, and yet ulvfugl consistently claims he’s got science in his corner for every argument he makes. In fact, ulvfugl makes so many arguments, for those who’ve been observing, he ultimately argues against himself when you take the entirety of his posting history here. He just likes to argue, and he’ll arbitrarily use science when it suits him, and discard it when it doesn’t suit him.

    There are more than likely many negative feedbacks, ulvfugl, just not enough scientists are looking for them. They’re there, no doubt, waiting to be discovered. Screaming to be found in plain sight, but their pleas fall on purposely deaf ears and blinded eyes.


    ‘Greener’ Climate Prediction Shows Plants Slow Warming

    A new NASA computer modeling effort has found that additional growth of plants and trees in a world with doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide levels would create a new negative feedback – a cooling effect – in the Earth’s climate system that could work to reduce future global warming.

    The cooling effect would be -0.3 degrees Celsius (C) (-0.5 Fahrenheit (F)) globally and -0.6 degrees C (-1.1 F) over land, compared to simulations where the feedback was not included, said Lahouari Bounoua, of Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. Bounoua is lead author on a paper detailing the results that will be published Dec. 7 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

    Without the negative feedback included, the model found a warming of 1.94 degrees C globally when carbon dioxide was doubled.

    Bounoua stressed that while the model’s results showed a negative feedback, it is not a strong enough response to alter the global warming trend that is expected. In fact, the present work is an example of how, over time, scientists will create more sophisticated models that will chip away at the uncertainty range of climate change and allow more accurate projections of future climate.

    “This feedback slows but does not alleviate the projected warming,” Bounoua said.

    To date, only some models that predict how the planet would respond to a doubling of carbon dioxide have allowed for vegetation to grow as a response to higher carbon dioxide levels and associated increases in temperatures and precipitation.

    Still from animation showing seasonal vegetation changes on Earth in 2004. This animation shows seasonal vegetation changes on Earth in 2004, created using NASA satellite data. It is an animation of what is called the Normalized Vegetation Difference Index, which provides an indication of the health of plant life on Earth. Source: Scientific Visualization Studio, Goddard Space Flight Center Of those that have attempted to model this feedback, this new effort differs in that it incorporates a specific response in plants to higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. When there is more carbon dioxide available, plants are able to use less water yet maintain previous levels of photosynthesis. The process is called “down-regulation.” This more efficient use of water and nutrients has been observed in experimental studies and can ultimately lead to increased leaf growth. The ability to increase leaf growth due to changes in photosynthetic activity was also included in the model. The authors postulate that the greater leaf growth would increase evapotranspiration on a global scale and create an additional cooling effect.

    “This is what is completely new,” said Bounoua, referring to the incorporation of down-regulation and changed leaf growth into the model. “What we did is improve plants’ physiological response in the model by including down-regulation. The end result is a stronger feedback than previously thought.”

    The modeling approach also investigated how stimulation of plant growth in a world with doubled carbon dioxide levels would be fueled by warmer temperatures, increased precipitation in some regions and plants’ more efficient use of water due to carbon dioxide being more readily available in the atmosphere. Previous climate models have included these aspects but not down-regulation. The models without down-regulation projected little to no cooling from vegetative growth.

    Scientists agree that in a world where carbon dioxide has doubled – a standard basis for many global warming modeling simulations – temperature would increase from 2 to 4.5 degrees C (3.5 to 8.0 F). (The model used in this study found warming – without incorporating the plant feedback – on the low end of this range.) The uncertainty in that range is mostly due to uncertainty about “feedbacks” – how different aspects of the Earth system will react to a warming world, and then how those changes will either amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the overall warming.

    An example of a positive feedback would be if warming temperatures caused forests to grow in the place of Arctic tundra. The darker surface of a forest canopy would absorb more solar radiation than the snowy tundra, which reflects more solar radiation. The greater absorption would amplify warming. The vegetative feedback modeled in this research, in which increased plant growth would exert a cooling effect, is an example of a negative feedback. The feedback quantified in this study is a result of an interaction between all these aspects: carbon dioxide enrichment, a warming and moistening climate, plants’ more efficient use of water, down-regulation and the ability for leaf growth.

    This new paper is one of many steps toward gradually improving overall future climate projections, a process that involves better modeling of both warming and cooling feedbacks.

    “As we learn more about how these systems react, we can learn more about how the climate will change,” said co-author Forrest Hall, of the University of Maryland-Baltimore County and Goddard Space Flight Center. “Each year we get better and better. It’s important to get these things right just as it’s important to get the track of a hurricane right. We’ve got to get these models right, and improve our projections, so we’ll know where to most effectively concentrate mitigation efforts.”

    The results presented here indicate that changes in the state of vegetation may already be playing a role in the continental water, energy and carbon budgets as atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, said Piers Sellers, a co-author from NASA’s Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas.

    “We’re learning more and more about how our planet really works,” Sellers said. “We have suspected for some time that the connection between vegetation photosynthesis and the surface energy balance could be a significant player in future climate. This study gives us an indication of the strength and sign of one of these biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.”

    Once again, the models prove to be wholly inadequate in explaining the complexity, and yet another revision is offered up. Any intelligent person sees where this is headed. In a decade, instead of recanting, I’m sure they’ll have moved on to some other obscure crisis when AGW doesn’t pan out, and the evidence for it will be equally dodgy and contrived.

  • @ Martin

    I know it, child. But you could seek and find a URL to something by someone more gifted than yourself who does have something to say, that would brighten our day and illuminate and enhance our existence. Someone with an exemplary prose style perhaps ?

    “We are so full of apprehensions, fears…that we don’t know exactly to what it points. One thing is sure — a great change of our psychological attitude is imminent, that is certain. Because we need more understanding of human nature, because the only real danger that exists is man himself. He is the great danger, and we are pitifully unaware of it. We know nothing of man, far too little. His psyche should be studied because we are the origin of all coming evil.”


  • But you could seek and find a URL […].

    I like Guy McPherson’s blog. Also, Chicken George’s comments make me laugh.

  • “….There are more than likely many negative feedbacks, ulvfugl, just not enough scientists are looking for them. They’re there, no doubt, waiting to be discovered. Screaming to be found in plain sight, but their pleas fall on purposely deaf ears and blinded eyes….”

    A perfect example of hopium and of someone who has no comprehension of the larger context of climate science.

    Take the pitiful, grasping at straws example of “Greener’ Climate Prediction Shows Plants Slow Warming”.

    Pure propaganda, mixing some truth with much bullshit. Edward Bernays would get a stiffy over that.

    The fact that 3/4 of the planet’s surface is water and that the 1/4 of it that’s land has GROWING deserts and wastelands with no effort whatsoever to reverse the cutting down of forests.

    The 7 billion humanoids will cut down every last tree and shrub for consumer heaven, but hey, the doomed plants will grow faster, hurrah!

    Ya, sure, higher CO2 makes some plants grow fast, up to a point, then the accelerated plant grow promotes wide spread plant diseases faster yet. Just over feed a greenhouse plant with Miracle Grow and watch it’s health go into the toilet, similar principle.

    Fabulous ‘logic’.

    If the current climate models included the 20+ positive feed back loops discovered so far, they would show HIGH DOUBLE DIGIT temperature rises, not the quaint 2 to 6 degree range now bandied about. Six degree will completely toast the food production system, what would 18-20 do?

    The 20+ newly discovered positive climate feedback loops are the ones SCREAMING at any modestly intelligent person, while the negative ones are hiding under rocks like salamanders afraid of the Light.

  • I’m with Roger, Chicken George. I’m a football fan who also happens to be a business advocate and I’m involved in opening new schools. Heralding NTE is a hobby of mine that I practice in my spare time. There’s so much work to be done in opening a new school and running it like a corporation, and yet there’s so little time to accomplish all of it considering soon enough we’ll all go kaput. Preach the end, but act as if the future is endless. That’s my motto. It neutralizes the competition when you preach the end. It demotivates them and motivates you. You swoop in to fill the vacuum of productivity created from their paralysis. I learned that from Sun Tzu. I shouldn’t give my trade secrets away but I can’t help it. I have diarrhea of the mouth.

  • I haven’t seen anyone mention Gore here yet. Here’s a clip of him speaking to some young guy:

    At about 4:45 he is asked about the worst case 100 years hence, and he makes a sour face and says:

    “What’s at risk if we did not take action truly is the survival of civilization as we know it. And that will sound like an extreme statement to many people, will sound like something that is hyped, but literally that is the case.”

    Big Al gets more press exposure than anyone else on these issues, and I haven’t heard that clear a statement from him before. Of course, 100 years is not the timeline we are looking at.

    Oh, and the trolls pounce in the comments…

  • Roger

    The negative feedback loops certainly exist. Without them our climate could not have remained so stable for so long. Whether the negative feedback loops can still hold sway with co2 levels at 400ppm and climbing is doubtful, to say the least.

  • Hmmm … I wonder …

    Apparently you don’t read what I read

    Some of the folks I read are writing about stuff I’m still reviewing and pondering because it’s so extreme. According to them 100 years could be optimistic.

    FishOutofWater, are you here? Delurk and say hello!

  • Big Al knows how bad it really is and let it slip out a bit in that intview, but like 350.org and Hansen, he is pulling his punches.

    His brand has been damaged by the Koch sucker brother’s propaganda smear but he has elected to ‘preach that the future is possible, but quietly knows it’s probably too late’.

    Personally I’d love to see him just ‘let the dogs out’ and tell the public to wake the fuck up or go blow it out their asses, “y’all gonna die soon, I’ll buy the first round!”

  • Cowgirl Apocalypse Haiku #78

    San Francisco bar,
    pirate theme: “One more triple
    painkiller, please. Argh!”

  • And now for a fresh paper.


    A new study by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “warming pause” has virtually disappeared.

    They take satellite data of upper-atmospheric temperatures and adjust it to estimate ground temperatures, reset the adjustment monthly, and verify against ground station data which does exist but was intentionally left out of the adjustment.

    Cowtan and Way apply their method to the HadCRUT4 data, which are state-of-the-art except for their treatment of data gaps. For 1997-2012 these data show a relatively small warming trend of only 0.05 °C per decade – which has often been misleadingly called a “warming pause”.

    But after filling the data gaps this trend is 0.12 °C per decade and thus exactly equal to the long-term trend mentioned by the IPCC.

  • Big Al’s waist/waste
    Wallet too

    Gore cleans up
    Climate Change
    Green Goose Golden Eggs


    ‘Mogul Al’

    The transaction also raised eyebrows because Gore, who has for years inveighed against fossil fuels and their role in climate change, sold the network to a company funded in part by oil-rich Qatar. Jon Stewart, host of the Daily Show television program, asked in January, “Can mogul Al Gore coexist with activist Al Gore?”

    Gore defended the sale on the grounds that, among other things, Al Jazeera has “the highest quality, most extensive, best climate coverage of any network in the world.” It’s a position Gore’s been forced to defend repeatedly along the tour for his latest book “The Future: the Six Drivers of Global Change.”

    Cable TV analysts, meanwhile, were abuzz over the $500 million payout. Current had been seeking buyers for a while, aware that Time Warner might soon pull the plug, but had not found any takers until Al Jazeera stepped forward.

  • The problems we face today are developmental/evolutionary in their origins and continued fatal trajectory. The earlier drives/centers/dimensions within human beings are still the most powerful determiners of our individual and collective behavior. The more recently evolved centers of compassion, wisdom, and beyond are insufficiently developed in most of us at this time to control and guide the lower centers. This development cannot happen by automatic or unconscious means, but depends on individuals and collectives freely choosing to do the inner work necessary to awaken and empower their higher potentialities. Various methods to facilitate this desirable growth have been devised throughout history, but the number of individuals who have undertaken these paths has been very few in comparison to the multitudes who are mostly unaware of these possibilities and their crucial necessity.

    Lacking higher aims and guidance, the obsession of our earthly cultures and individuals with power dooms us to extinction, since great powers engaged without the wisdom to guide and restrain them are toxic and fatal. Whether we will acknowledge our errors and correct course in time to avert the disaster of global extinction will determine our fate. I see this perplexing drama being played out daily at a nearby treatment center for substance addicts where I try to help out. Only a few will engage the difficult path of developing a higher degree of consciousness and control to save themselves. My work there does not fill me with optimism about our global addictive culture’s chances for recovery…

  • “since feeling is first
    who pays any attention
    to the syntax of things
    will never wholly kiss you;

    wholly to be a fool
    while Spring is in the world

    my blood approves,
    and kisses are a far better fate
    than wisdom
    lady i swear by all flowers. Don’t cry
    –the best gesture of my brain is less than
    your eyelids’ flutter which says

    we are for eachother: then
    laugh, leaning back in my arms
    for life’s not a paragraph

    And death i think is no parenthesis”
    ― E.E. Cummings

    “Trust your heart if the seas catch fire, live by love though the stars walk backward.”
    ― E.E. Cummings

  • @ Chicken George – Sorry, but I find ‘ulvfugl’ to be to be an extraordinarily brilliant thinker as even his most otherwise ordinary thoughts tend to run very deep. Rare is the time when I don’t learn something which is likely valuable after reading one of his posts. And, as for you? After trying to wade through the politely named fecal matter that you just posted, it would have never occurred to me to insert the word George at the end of your screen name. Nope, not at all.

    @ ulvfugl – I hear you! It must be obvious that you keep striking a real nerve with your nuclear, global climate change and NTE pronouncements. Bravo! It’s to hear other persons like you speaking about hard truths like that which keeps me coming back for more at the Beach of Doom. Thanks!

  • You know what, at this point I really don’t fucking care that Al Gore is a hypocrite, or impure, or whatever.

    He is rather unlike most of the American public in that he even considers climate change to BE a problem.

    That’s a hell of a lot more acknowledgment of reality than most of the public has been able to muster.

    Gore isn’t perfect. Who the fuck cares?

    Why do you all think we can never manage to beat the assholes? Because we can’t compromise, and we torpedo our own allies for their lack of “purity.”

    We should’ve backed Gore anyway, despite his hypocrisy or what-have-you, long enough that we could’ve amassed the NUMBERS necessary to fight a bad system.

    But no, we had to be all PRIDEFUL about it. Only “pure” activists need apply.

    And then we wonder why the Right has managed to dominate politics for the last 30 years, even though all the right-wing groups secretly hate each other? Easy, it’s because the Right puts its differences aside and is willing to take a little hypocrisy so they can actually fight whoever they think needs to be fighting.

    But we leftists? Someone isn’t perfect, or they’re privileged, or whatever, and we throw them away, thus ensuring that we only have a ragtag group left to fight the whole world.

    If you’ll pardon my frustrated swearing, fuckity fuck fuck FUUUUUUUCK!

  • Thanks Christy.

    Jumping through

    the window

    of poetry


  • @Paul C
    I think I get the MEP refrain, goes something like this;
    Yea! That worked really good, way better than the old way. So much easier and faster!
    Whenever one of our ancestors innovated and made things efficient. Really explains Jevon’s Paradox.

    Maybe you could put it to music, some thing better than Hi, Ho, Hi, Ho, its off to work we go?

    @K K
    Meeting with NTE aware or suspecting folks in meat-space is a mixed blessing (as most supposed blessings turn out to be lol), but for me and my efforts at organizing a Meetup here in the TwinCities of Minnesota its been worth it. The gold has been meeting and connecting with several people that get it, even as we do the dance of vasscilation. For me speaking my “truths, fears, etc” to other humans who listen and wince, tear up, or melt along is “to die for”. The sharing of physical space, breathing the just breathed air, exchanging photons and particles, and resonating with eachother tends to make the recognition more palpable and real for me. I have had to set some tighter boundaries on joining the group, trusting that the level of safety needed to discuss the unthinkable is maintained. I have a hard time going to that level of raw vulnerability if others can’t hold the space fore me as I work to hold it for them.

    May have altered a couple of friendships due to my need to protect the sanctity of the space. Time will tell. No such thing as a free lunch.

    Thank you for showing up, opening up, and putting it out there on NBL.


  • Super Typhoon Haiyan’s Intensification and Unusually Warm Sub-Surface Waters


  • The more recently evolved centers of compassion, wisdom, and beyond are insufficiently developed in most of us at this time to control and guide the lower centers.

    Cooperation is a very early feature of chemistry in its transition into biochemistry and molecular biology. A helluva lot of molecules had to cooperate to form the LUCA (the Last Universal Common Ancestor of all extant organisms).

    Even at primordial levels of organisation, cooperation to the point of ultimate self-sacrifice is seen, as in slime moulds. Some slime moulds have separate cells, while others have no cell membranes between the nuclei. Each cell in the mat of slime is capable of carrying on an independent existence, even when there are no cell membranes separating individual cells. When environmental change makes survival problematic, all the cells may cooperate to form a slug-like organism with a front end and a rear end that moves from place to place. If conditions worsen, the cells cooperate to form stalks that have fruiting bodies at their ends, and some cells within the fruiting bodies transform into thick-walled spores that can survive harsh conditions and disseminate to other sites. Only a small percentage of the cells end up as spores: the rest of the cells in the stalk and the fruiting bodies perish.

    In multicellular organisms, all the cells except a few from the germ lines perish in each generation.

    Cooperation at higher levels of organisation is seen in the social species, where the “we” takes precedence over the “I”. Yet even there a distinction is maintained between the “us” and the “them”. In human hierarchies where horizontal interactions become subsumed into the vertical transactions, a trend to a return to a solitary existence within the hierarchical structure occurs, particularly when the hierarchy co-opts the functions of the community in sustaining the individual: neighbours become strangers.

    Cooperation is ancient, the very basis of biology with compassion an emergent phenomenon. Wisdom is intrinsic to biology when change is imposed at a pace commensurate with biological evolution. Proteins that survive high temperatures in thermophiles, that protect against freezing damage to cell membranes in psychrophiles, haemoglobins in deep sea fish that take up and release oxygen at ranges that would be hypoxic to us, fungal production of antibiotics to suppress bacteria, bacterial resistance to those antibiotics, all are examples of wisdom in nature. Our technology has enabled changes of a rapidity, magnitude and disruptiveness that cannot be managed by natural or innate wisdom. Nor do those changes expedite the development of the needed wisdom.

  • @ Walter Amesbury SAID: I’m with Roger, Chicken George…. There’s so much work to be done in opening a new school and running it like a corporation…. I shouldn’t give my trade secrets away but I can’t help it….. I have diarrhea of the mouth.

    Yuck! Go away troll! And, you three just named dudes are the alleged A-team? Thanks for that! I think we have probably already learned everything that we might EVER need to know about you. And, in respect to your many other seemingly very acute mental problems, why not go and seek out a good self-help site while there’s still time, because anything that you might think that you might presently add here is probably not wanted.

    Oh, by the way, and in respect to getting this NTE message board back on the right track: I personally tend to think that it’s likely that we will all be looking at a full blown societal collapse within only 1 to 3 years as things seem to be moving quite incredibly fast on nearly every front. And, I only have to be caused to remember the tragic social events leading up to World War One, in August 1914, so as to be once again reminded that all hell could at any time break out amidst our probably even more insane present day world. Or, at least, that’s my own take on things.

    But, hey, why not try to look at the brighter side of our pending global doom, fella? Because maybe one of the more positive benefits which could possibly result from your own very near term extinction from this world, is that you might also be permanently prevented from dripping any more of your stupid troll shit on this site. Quit insulting us with your presence. Aren’t you ever caused to be ashamed of what you do?

  • @ Belle Islander

    Thanks for the compliment.

    Yes, clueless cowardly Chicken George, who doesn’t understand science, makes me laugh.

    Not my fault he’s not smart enough to keep up, is it.

    Unlike him, I’m acutely aware of what I know, and what I don’t know.

    At least I do have a posting record under my own name, unlike him.

    He quotes a paper that’s YEARS out of date, that says ‘Bounoua stressed that while the model’s results showed a negative feedback, it is not a strong enough response to alter the global warming trend that is expected.’

    So it CONFIRMS what I said !

    Everybody who knows ANYTHING about the Earth system and climate knows there are positive and negative feedbacks in complex systems. What matters, what I was saying to James, who asked if there’s a list, is that there are none, to counter the list of irreversible self-reinforcing positive feedback loops that Guy has made.

    There’s much more recent papers than that one. The vegetation all dies anyway, as the temperatures increase and the soil and ecology gets wrecked.

    Afaik, there aren’t any negative feedbacks that are going to make any difference. We will get 2 deg C, then 3, 4, 5, 6 and NTE. That’s the track, the trajectory we are on, according to the science, according to the data, according to the projections.

    If ANYBODY can give a convincing explanation why we DO NOT, I would like to hear it.

    Hopium will not do. Fantasies will not do. Miracles will not do.

    But I don’t think we will hear from ‘Chicken George’ again. All these one-off fake names provide cover for cowards who have no real knowledge, no courage, no integrity, they are not responsible adults in any sense, just nasty brats who spit and puke and run away.

    They have to keep changing names or they’d be banned. Either they are paid, or they have personal motives from their own perverse malign ideological or psychological agendas. Either way, they are best ignored, but it is so tempting to give them a slap. :-)

    This one, full of spite and hate and envy, tries so hard to insult me, swinging its sword by the wrong end, doesn’t even understand the fucking paper it quotes, cuts off it’s own head. Dead troll. Hahaha.

    Fwiw, I don’t much like Carlin, whoever posts him. Too crude, vulgar, obvious, no refinement, subtlety, finesse. Nor am I a great fan of Jung, for that matter.

    @ Walter Amesbury

    Appears to be a human attempting to mimic a troll bot… quack quack quack.

    It’s about the science, dude, you know, physics, chemistry, biology, climatology, ecology, all that kind of stuff. You’ll have to learn something otherwise you just look very stoopid, less like Sun Tzu, more like Village Idiot.

    @ Christy

    I think cummings would be very offended that you capitalised his initials.

    @ Librarian

    fuckity fuck fuck FUUUUUUUCK!

    Hahaha, you starting to see things from MY perspective ? ;-)
    Love and RAGE ! :-)

    @ mike k

    My work there does not fill me with optimism about our global addictive culture’s chances for recovery…

    Hahaha, so you’re drawing what conclusion from that ?

    Some of us understood that, erm, well, a little while ago, which is why we are HERE, and why, as WoodsDweller put it, so eloquently, in the previous thread :

    …this is a NTE site rather than a “bad things will happen unless we all come together to do these things” site.

    @ Mac in MN

    Maybe you could put it to music..

    Thanks, I’m on your side, but there’s a limit :-) I got enough trouble with my three fingers and thumb working independent stuff – words and voice has got to be somebody else’s department :-)


    Fukushima Daiichi: a Never-Ending Story of
    Pain or Outrage?


  • @Robin Datta – Wisdom or higher intelligence exists in layers of increasing depths, greater ranges of extension, and expanding hierarchies of power. All of this far exceeds the capacities of earlier stages of evolution to manifest. The excessive and uncontrolled use of one kind of intelligence by humans has indeed played a major role in bringing us to the brink of our extinction. On the other hand, if we were to develop the higher capacities possible to us, as demonstrated by some individuals among us, and extend those abilities beyond their present apparent limits, it is possible and even very likely that doing so could give us the power to put many of the genies we so ignorantly released back in their bottles. The nuclear specter would be an obvious example among many others.

    Our future evolution as humans, and indeed our very survival depends on our consciously developing and using our higher capacities in a wise and mutually beneficial manner. The cosmic rule here is evolve or die. How to organize and conduct our entry into a higher stage of our evolution is the essential problem we must solve, together with those among us who begin to awaken to the basis of our crisis and the essential means necessary to solve it. All the outer changes and fixes that we consider will be futile unless we change the very nature and basis of ourselves. There are many hints and solid research in the direction I am indicating. We will not be starting from scratch. Actually, wise people throughout history have recognized our essential self created problems and the necessity of solving them, and have made some considerable progress in devising methods to help us transcend our ignorant and limited way of being and acting toward something better and more sustainable. We will be standing on the shoulders of giants in this regard. We should not disregard their contributions because they were unable to spearhead the kind of global transformation they dreamed of. That victory remains for us to accomplish, or not. There is no guarantee of success in this ultimate struggle. We have a chance but not a certainty…

  • @Ulvfugl – You found your position on the certainty of NTE. I don’t. However I am as aware as many here that the odds against our continuation are overwhelmingly bad. There will never be a “proof” of either your position or mine. I prefer to work for the Good, and remain open about things I can have no certainty about. I have no intent to persuade anyone to adopt my uncertain position. I respect all who are called to consider our assuredly dire circumstances, and have felt many of the things that others are experiencing in this disorienting and challenging time. We all be a bit daft now, and with good reason… I think having a site where we can share our diverse ideas and feelings is a very good thing. I hope we can learn to accept the various ways each of us is attempting to deal with this truly devastating reality of the possibility or near certainty of NTE without getting too nasty with those who may disagree with us in some ways. Have a good day on the Beach….

  • And the good news just keeps coming from Fukushima…


    A robot … has for the first time identified exactly where highly radioactive water is leaking from a reactor. … succeeded in sending a remote-controlled robot close to the lower part of the No.1 reactor’s containment vessel.

    The lower section is filled with contaminated water injected to cool molten nuclear fuel. Extremely high radiation levels have hampered efforts to probe that section.

    A camera on the robot captured images of water leaking from 2 holes in the containment vessel into the building housing the reactor.

    TEPCO engineers say they’re not sure how much water is leaking. But they say one of the leaks looks as if tap water is gushing out.

    Radiation levels in the area were extremely high at 0.9 to 1.8 sieverts an hour.

    Engineers suspect that damage to containment vessels at the No. 2 and 3 reactors is also causing similar leaks of highly radioactive water.

    So they finally managed to shield a robot enough to get pictures out, I suppose that’s progress. I think the expression they were looking for was “leaks like a sieve”.

    According to Wikipedia “Doses greater than 1 sievert received over a short time period are likely to cause radiation poisoning, possibly leading to death within weeks.”

    Remember that Unit 4 is the easy part. The other three are just as damaged (Unit 3 probably more so), and they can’t even enter the buildings.

    @ uvlfugl

    Glad you liked that line. I wanted to go back to edit it, it isn’t quite right. Something more like:

    This is an NTE site, not an activist site where we try to convince people that “bad things will happen unless we come together to take these comfortably incremental steps”

    Still not quite right, but closer.

    That’s always been where Gore is – we can beat this if we make the right choices. I watched a video (probably linked from here) of some guy giving a climate change talk wherein he said he had taken a training course to give the official Inconvenient Truth presentation, and the trainer told him not to make it sound so scary that they would discourage people from acting. I have the impression that Gore understands, but he is taking the Resistance is Fertile path.

    @ anyone interested

    I spent three hours walking the woods with the surveyor, pulling up the stakes he put in without consulting me and moving them back where we had agreed they go. Then we had to find a route through the trees for their damned drilling tank. 22 holes to plant explosives to do their seismic survey so they can extract that sweet, sweet CO2.

    Yes, by all means, let’s kill trees to drill for CO2. That’s what the world needs.

  • @ Roger Ellis – I’m afraid that I better risk breaking the two post a day rule so as to immediately apologize to you for thinking that you might be another associate of those two troll clowns that I had criticized earlier. I got much from your recent well thought out comments and rest assured that my mistake will not happen again. Sorry

  • @ mike k

    I can explain to anyone why we DO get NTE. Trouble is, nobody has been able to give me a convincing explanation why we do NOT get NTE.

    As I’ve tried to explain more than once, I see it on the geological time scale. Whether it happens next year or 2100, the blink of an eye, it’s still a mass extinction event, and I don’t see how it can be avoided. Yes, it is the most horrendous thing imaginable. How we poor creatures can come to terms with it is beyond me. That’s what this site is about.

    Have a good day yourself.

    National Radiation Map, depicting environmental radiation levels across the USA, updated in real time every minute. This is the first web site where the average citizen (or anyone in the world) can see what radiation levels are anywhere in the USA at any time.


  • Fuck the trolls, on with the show….

    Thanks again to everyone here, I am both entertained and enlightened. I am not a scientist or scholar. My intelligence, such as it is, is my hands and my eyes. I am a visual artist and craftsperson. (I had a piece selected for the Dark Mountain anthology volume 3).

    That being said, about all I can contribute here would be visuals for the beach of doom. They say that artists have an inner sense of where society, if not the world, is headed, and that it shows up first in this visionary art. Am I seeing this in the artists whose work I follow? Most definitely. Like the amazing young Martin Wittfooth:

  • I think when considering Gore’s merits or the lack of it’s important to note that in any possible future that has any chance of solving climate/ecological issues–economic justice must play a large part in that solution– and it can’t have any super jesus rich pricks like Al Gore in it. . .A truth he very conveniently ignores. At the best this omission makes him an uninformed and ignorant spokesman for change, and if he could set aside his hubris for a moment he’d could be much more effective perhaps bankrolling causes that have a little more integrity in them. . .at worst it makes him completely duplicitous. I lean towards the later, and frankly have no idea whose side he’s really on– other than his own, which is obvious.

  • @ KK
    Maintaining inner peace in crazy times is, indeed, a great challenge. Especially when those crazy times caused by human overshoot and amplified by political corruption and sociopathy, impact upon us with threats, maybe even attacks, upon our personal comfort and well being. Life in industrial ‘civilization’ is tiresome, frustrating, full of anxiety and sickening toxins of every sort. Noise, interruption, pleasing ‘superiors’, constantly running to stay in place… Its enough to drive people crazy. And it does.

    So, what’s the answer? Get as far away from it as you can, as quickly as you can. Change what you can change within your own life to reduce the toxic load – eliminate – sugar, white flower, caffeine, nicotine, alcohol, artificial ingredients, GMO’s and other unnatural processed ‘foods’, all forms of flesh including dairy, go as organic as you can, increase consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables and their juices (pasteurized juices are cooked and all their enzymes have thereby been destroyed, make your own), grow your own sprouts, eat live fermented foods like miso and sauerkraut or other probiotics, and cut exposure to toxic people and television as much as you can. Learn to meditate as ulvfugl advises. Get fresh air and exercise. Sunbathe when you can. Sufficient rest and relaxation. Take a mini-vacation, even if its just to a local park for an hour or two. Walk. Go barefoot, if its not too cold, or even if it is. Take charge of your own life, don’t give it away to The Powers That Be. Don’t simply do what they tell you to do like a puppet on a string… especially when it comes to foods and drugs. As Frank Zappa intoned, they’re only in it for the money. They don’t give a silent hoot about you. Think for yourself, do your own research and don’t blindly follow the maddening crowd.

    If you get to the point where you can’t take it anymore, where you just have to ‘take it out on someone / something’… do it by withholding your money. Don’t buy their crap. But since you’re here, you’re probably already doing all of these positive healthy healing things for yourself and the Earth, and I’m just blowing into the wind. Or maybe I’ve sparked a few new considerations. As I’ve said many times before: Your health is how you feel. To be healthy, and feel good, stop doing the things that make you sick, even if its one small step at a time. Don’t give in, don’t give up, occupy your own life.

  • A recurring theme on NBL seems to be the issue of What Now? Yes What Now, that one understands and finds compelling NTE?

    As others have said more clearly and certainly eloquently than I can, pretty much all of what constitutes the cognitive and emotional map of modernity consciousness is writ in concepts, stories, artifacts, and narratives that utterly fail to offer help in navigating the future as implied by NTE and Collapse.

    And because I love a good story the following tale hit me between the eyes in its encapsulating my personal dilemma! The book is by a well known Mythologist, Michael Meade. He works the side of the street rich with cultural content that revolves around spiritual modes of thought and experience. So any of you that are spiritually dis-enchanted, please overlook the introduction in ()’s and cut to the chase.

    From pages 161-162, Why the World Doesn’t End, Michael Meade:

    (Sometimes we have to willingly enter the waters of uncertainty and find
    the inner dream and living story that can keep us buoyant and learning to swim in the direction of the divine. At certain moments in life it becomes necessary to accept the darkness and descend into the deep waters of the soul and learn what has kept us afloat all along.)

    It is like the tale of the scholar who was traveling from one place to another carrying his load of heavy books and weighty questions. His long journey led him to a great body of water and he began to look for a ship that could safely carry him across it. After doing some research and locating a suitable vessel, the scholar wanted to know who was in charge of the crossing. Being a man of questions and answers, he wanted to know what was what in this business of sailing and crossing over.

    Upon being introduced to the captain of the ship, the scholar asked if he was familiar with the ideas of philosophy, with the current issues of
    science, with the precise arguments of theologians. The man of the sea had to admit that he had not read any of those subjects in detail and that he was not schooled in the latest theories. The scholar promptly informed him that without developing such knowledge he had wasted most of his life. Be that as it may, the captain informed him that the course for the journey had been arranged and the time had come for the ship to sail.

    Not long after the vessel had reached the open seas, a storm began to blow across the surface of the water. The skies darkened all around, the winds blew wildly, and the waves surged greater and greater about the ship. When the gale did not abate but grew more treacherous moment to moment, the captain went to check on the scholar. He asked the learned man if, in the course of his studies, he had mastered the art of swimming. The man of books and big ideas explained that he had never taken the time to learn swimming or practice any other exercise. “Then all of your life has been wasted,” said the captain, “for this ship is going down.”

    Mac again: I find that even though I have done a lot of sorting and discarding the cultural remnants that I carry, I experience nearly total disarmedness in the face of NTE. I consider myself a
    Born Again Animist, and Biofiliac. And yet my deep shamanic experiences and training only bring me to my knees with loss, and awe at what is passing away.

    This ship is going down, guess I’ll join the chior and orchestra so to make some aching beauty while we may.

    Please join me in singing the following jinty, sung to the Kennel Ration jingle.

    My god’s better than your god
    My god’s better than yours
    My god’s better cuz he rains grace on me
    My god’s better than yours!

    My metaphor’s better than your metaphor
    My metaphor’s better than yours
    My metaphor’s better cuz its more inclusive
    My metaphor’s better than yours!

    My paradox’s better than your paradox
    My paradox’s better than yours
    My paradox’s better because it leaves me speachless
    Mmmm mmmm mmmmm mmm mmmm mmmmm!

    Feel free to add other verses as inspired! I had several others but I’m apparently having a Half-Heimers moment, not there all the way yet.

    Mac the coyote

  • So I’ve been shamelessly overposting today. One more and I’ll shut up for a while. This is a series of slides and short videos from Argonne National Labs showing experiments with corium (what is thought to have escaped Units 1-3 at Fukushima):


    Six tabs.

  • ulv

    yes, i cut and pasted those ee cummings quotes, with his name capitalized like that, real quick before zooming off to work this morning. thinking about it later, driving down the road, i realized the error. sort of made my point a little less pointed. Oh well :)

  • dairymandave: have you seen this?


    (quick quote)

    In short, the corn crop is highly productive, but the corn system is aligned to feed cars and animals instead of feeding people.

  • @ OzMan

    You mention Gandhi and his famous “Be the change you want to see” aphorism. It might surprise you to hear that Ran Prieur thought it bad advice. I don’t know how to link to the specific place in his blog, so I’ll quote the entry in full here.

    There’s a famous quote from Gandhi, “Be the change you want to see in the world.” I don’t want to get into the question of what Gandhi thought it meant, but under a strict literal interpretation, it is usually bad advice. For example, if the change you want to see is more people smoking pot, then you should smoke pot rather than work for legalization. Or if you’re straight, and you want to see legal gay marriage, there’s nothing you can do, and even if you’re gay the best you can do is move to a state where it’s legal and get married.

    If it’s possible to change the world through the political system, then doing so is always more powerful than changing personally. Seattle has a law now that stores have to charge you for bags. Because some people fought to change the law instead of just bringing their own bags, tens of thousands of shoppers who do not care about bag waste are now bringing their own bags.

    It’s only when you can’t change the world, or can change it only very slowly, that “be the change” becomes good advice. Instead of getting upset that the whole world isn’t the way you want it, you can be content that you’re changing your little part of the world.

    Now, if you want to salvage “be the change you want to see,” you can interpret it more broadly. So a straight person can support gay marriage by publicly supporting and encouraging gay couples. Rick Steves has done more than anyone else to get marijuana legalized in Washington State, even though (if we believe him) he doesn’t use it himself.

    So you can change the world with your behavior, even if you’re not personally doing the thing that people will be doing in the world you’re aiming for. This gets interesting when you apply it to issues where you could do the thing personally, but don’t. For example, if you want people to eat less meat, you don’t have to be vegetarian. I’m not joking! If you think I’m joking, it’s because political action has fallen so deeply under the shadow of puritanism. You can communicate the horror of factory farms and the inefficiency of grain-fed animals, while still eating meat yourself. You can fly around the world on jet planes giving lectures about climate change. I’m still not joking! You can be a primitivist on the internet. You can kick out a Niketown window with a Nike shoe! And you’re not doing anything wrong, you’re not a hypocrite, unless you tell other people they’re immoral for doing what you’re doing.

    Any movement that allows itself to be framed in terms of moral purity is doomed. If ending the exploitation of animals is about personally avoiding guilt, then anyone who speaks for animals can be dismissed as a fraud if they wear leather, or eat honey, or step on a bug. If reversing climate change is about reducing personal consumption, then the end of that path is to kill yourself.

    To escape this trap, it’s not enough for social movements to avoid puritanism — they must aggressively fight it, and carefully present themselves as completely tactical.

  • It wouldn’t surprise me if some of the threatening comments below didn’t come from some who post here, or in the least those who share the very same sentiment. This is where it all leads. It always does. It’s so immutable, we might as well label it a physical law, like gravity.


    World’s top climate scientists confess: Global warming is just QUARTER what we thought – and computers got the effects of greenhouse gases wrong.

    by David Rose

    ……..Last night Professor Judith Curry, head of climate science at Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, said the leaked summary showed that ‘the science is clearly not settled, and is in a state of flux’.

    She said it therefore made no sense that the IPCC was claiming that its confidence in its forecasts and conclusions has increased.

    For example, in the new report, the IPCC says it is ‘extremely likely’ – 95 per cent certain – that human influence caused more than half the temperature rises from 1951 to 2010, up from ‘very confident’ – 90 per cent certain – in 2007.

    Prof Curry said: ‘This is incomprehensible to me’ – adding that the IPCC projections are ‘overconfident’, especially given the report’s admitted areas of doubt.

    Starting a week tomorrow, about 40 of the 250 authors who contributed to the report – and supposedly produced a definitive scientific consensus – will hold a four-day meeting in Stockholm, together with representatives of most of the 195 governments that fund the IPCC, established in 1998 by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

    The governments have tabled 1,800 questions and are demanding major revisions, starting with the failure to account for the pause.

    Prof Curry said she hoped that the ‘inconsistencies will be pointed out’ at the meeting, adding: ‘The consensus-seeking process used by the IPCC creates and amplifies biases in the science. It should be abandoned in favour of a more traditional review that presents arguments for and against – which would better support scientific progress, and be more useful for policy makers.’ Others agree that the unwieldy and expensive IPCC assessment process has now run its course.

    Prof Allen said: ‘The idea of producing a document of near-biblical infallibility is a misrepresentation of how science works, and we need to look very carefully about what the IPCC does in future.’

    Climate change sceptics are more outspoken. Dr Benny Peiser, of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, described the leaked report as a ‘staggering concoction of confusion, speculation and sheer ignorance’.

    As for the pause, he said ‘it would appear that the IPCC is running out of answers .  .  . to explain why there is a widening gap between predictions and reality’……

    The Mail on Sunday’s report last week that Arctic ice has had a massive rebound this year from its 2012 record low was followed up around the world – and recorded 174,200 Facebook ‘shares’, by some distance a record for an article on the MailOnline website.

    But the article and its author also became the object of extraordinarily vitriolic attacks from climate commentators who refuse to accept any evidence that may unsettle their view of the science.

    A Guardian website article claimed our report was ‘delusional’ because it ignored what it called an ‘Arctic death spiral’ caused by global warming.

    Beneath this, some readers who made comments had their posts removed by the site moderator, because they ‘didn’t abide by our community standards’.

    But among those that still remain on the site is one which likens the work of David Rose – who is Jewish – to Adolf Hitler’s anti-Semitic rant Mein Kampf.

    Another suggests it would be reasonable if he were to be murdered by his own children. A comment under the name DavidFTA read: ‘In a few years, self-defence is going to be made a valid defence for parricide [killing one’s own father], so Rose’s children will have this article to present in their defence at the trial.’

    Critics of the article entirely ignored its equally accurate statement that there is mounting evidence the Arctic sea ice retreat has in the past been cyclical: there were huge melts in the 1920s, followed by later advances.

    Some scientists believe that this may happen again, and may already be under way – delaying the date when the ice cap might vanish by decades or even centuries.

    Another assault was mounted by Bob Ward, spokesman for the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at the London School of Economics.

    Mr Ward tweeted that the article was ‘error-strewn’.

    The eminent US expert Professor Judith Curry, who unlike Mr Ward is a climate scientist with a long list of peer-reviewed publications to her name, disagreed.

    On her blog Climate Etc she defended The Mail on Sunday, saying the article contained ‘good material’, and issued a tweet which challenged Mr Ward to say what these ‘errors’ were.

    He has yet to reply.

    When you resort to these tactics, of threatening and intimidating dissent, you’re unequivocally bankrupt. The commentary at NBL has done more than anything to change my thinking on anthropogenic climate change. I once fell for it. Not any longer. I suppose I owe the lot of you a debt of gratitude for motivating me to look at this issue more sincerely and objectively. Now that I have, I fully realize you’re full of shit, and heretofore so was I. I know you didn’t intend it, at least I think you didn’t but who knows, but the enema did the trick. I’m shit free….for now.

  • @ logspirit


    I have managed to make some of the changes. The big ones, shutting down my start-up, separating from a partner who understood but choose to not walk the walk. Moving out of the city, starting farming without chemicals. Buying little and after great deliberation and procrastination. Taking care of what I have so that I don’t have to buy more. No more regular binge drinking (twice or thrice a year I do let go of myself but nothing like before), travelling without a good enough cause.

    I do meditate, but it is more like a communion with nature, I go to this place on the mountain and just let go of everything, she comes, we play, she lends perspectives to my thoughts, sometimes we just sit there and watch the light moving, illuminating. I don’t question her and she does not judge mi.

    But yes, much remains, to be done and improved upon. Like dealing decisively with the unholy trinity of nicotine, caffeine and saccharine. Definitely need to start exercising more.

    I honestly don’t have much improvement to show for the last year or so, I got completely disenchanted with things, started to hate. People around mi and certain events got the better of mi, to be honest. It is the ones who are closest who hurt the most, because you expect them not to. Need to stop expecting, but it is very difficult, it is the worst of addictions.

    Recently life, my teacher, unleashed a lightening bolt upon mi and that has jumped mi out of my apathy and is putting a lot of things into perspective, given mi enough pain to start loving again, if that makes any sense :)


    @ Mac in MN

    The gold has been meeting and connecting with several people that get it, even as we do the dance of vacillation. For me speaking my “truths, fears, etc” to other humans who listen and wince, tear up, or melt along is “to die for”. The sharing of physical space, breathing the just breathed air, exchanging photons and particles, and resonating with each other tends to make the recognition more palpable and real for me.

    Forgive mi life, for I am human, I fail, I feel envy ;)


    @ WoodsDweller

    But after filling the data gaps this trend is 0.12 °C per decade and thus exactly equal to the long-term trend mentioned by the IPCC.

    So much for finding a negative feedback loop :|


    @ Librarian

    It is a problem that I like to call, shades of green. Different shades of green cannot seem to be able to tolerate each other. So much more could have easily been achieved, if the various shady greens co-operated. Instead of finding differences in opinon or courses of action. We could easily have agreed that, we all get it, they all don’t and found unity in that realization.

    IC loves it, divides the shades of green and rules, continues to drive straight into the / off the cliff.


    Sorry, it’s like a wolf thing, one howls, others are compelled to join in :)


    @ uvlfugl & WoodsDweller

    How about, NBL is an NTE site, deal with it!



    @ Denise



    @ everyone

    Where is BenjaminTheDonkey?


    To the fiddle :D

  • With thanks to Mel Strawn for his contribution, I’ve posted a new essay. It’s the second in this space by Godofredo Aravena, and it’s here.

  • @ Black Shirts Rising

    It wouldn’t surprise me if some of the threatening comments below didn’t come from some who post here, or in the least those who share the very same sentiment. This is where it all leads. It always does. It’s so immutable, we might as well label it a physical law, like gravity.

    How amusing. A smear, without any evidence or support, suggesting we here are ‘very nasty people who threaten’.

    This is where WHAT all leads ?

    ‘IT always does’ ? WHAT always does ?

    Seems to me you have not got the faintest idea what you are talking about, have you.

    You then go on to quote the Daily Mail.

    But before we get to that, let’s glance at your final paragraph.

    When you resort to these tactics, of threatening and intimidating dissent, you’re unequivocally bankrupt. The commentary at NBL has done more than anything to change my thinking on anthropogenic climate change. I once fell for it. Not any longer. I suppose I owe the lot of you a debt of gratitude for motivating me to look at this issue more sincerely and objectively. Now that I have, I fully realize you’re full of shit, and heretofore so was I. I know you didn’t intend it, at least I think you didn’t but who knows, but the enema did the trick. I’m shit free….for now.

    ‘When you resort to these tactics of threatening and intimidating…’

    BUT, dear Black Shirts, WE have done NO SUCH THING. That is a smear that you created out of nowhere.

    You then go on to say that your view on anthropogenic climate change has been changed by the commentariat here, and is now more ‘sincere’ (eh! what has sincerity to do with empirical science ?) and ‘objective’… and blahblah…

    Well, good for you. Happy travels in your newly enlightened condition.

    Now, back to the Daily Mail.

    You see, if you were a genuine, sincere, objective, honest, decent, honourable, human being, then I would be more than happy to devote as long as it took to walk you through every point in that article explaining the angles from various points of view, Rose’s position and record, Curry’s position and record, the views of other scientists of those two, the arguments for and against, the points to me made re the IPCC, and so forth.

    I could tell you why we here at NBL differ from the mainstream, why Dr McPherson’s Climate Summary is ahead of the IPCC, etc, etc. I have all this information in great detail at my fingertips. You’d be amazed, I’m certain. You know, the sea ice, the methane, nitrous oxide, all that stuff.

    I would do this, with patience and diligence, not because I wish to change your beliefs or convert you to a religion, but because I think that insight is always superior to ignorance, and out of the goodness of my heart, I help people who request knowledge. Just as if they asked me the directions to the train station, I explain where it it, so that they find it safely.

    But that’s if they are honest and sincere. Which YOU clearly are NOT.

    So, I don’t care whether you believe what that creepy disgusting Rose says, or what Curry says – she’s now employed by Murdoch, it seems, which says all anyone needs to know about HER.

    It makes no difference. We still get NTE.

    This blog isn’t some sort of evangelical recruiting campaign. We’re trying to discuss stuff. Commiseration, hospice, resistance, whatever. You’re just another nasty contemptible anonymous troll.

    Nobody cares what you believe. Enjoy your enemas, may you have many more of them.

    Incidentally, the Daily Mail was one of the great supporters of the Black Shirts.

  • @ Librarian

    Re the issue of the perfect being the enemy of the good, we do agree, although I will also agree that Gore must be taken with a grain of salt.

    @ mike k.

    Thanks as always for being there. Why not keep trying? We cannot and probably shouldn’t attempt to determine the final outcome. Chop wood, and let the chips fall where they may. A very long video duet on Fukushima that Christy linked to showed what struck me as very good scientists–hats off to them–who were most informative about the horrors of the situation, even as the world sleeps. But they were still doing what they could…

    @ wren

    Wow! Thanks a million from a fellow visual artist. I did not know this artist. I LOVE the tree growing out of the train and the peacock perched on a branch. That painting works on many levels.

    @ MacinMN


  • @Artleads – No one knows when the last human will die. Certainty in such cases is an illusion. This lack of certainty gives room for hope. Hope exists in many forms and flavors. False hope is only one flavor. Art, which is a form of love, stretches out into what is thought to be the impossible. Art defies the mind created limits which form their own species of illusions. Our dreams of love and beauty carry us into the vast reaches of the unknown…

  • @ mike k

    Who cares when the last person dies.

    If you think it’s the people that matter, then you’re part of the problem, because what needs saving is the biosphere, because no biosphere = no people.

    The anthropocentric view that focusses on people is what got us into this mess.

    What we do know for sure is that we are losing the natural world that created us, in fact, we have already lost it, because there is no part of the planet that is not effected by human pollution and degraded by human activity. The whole surface of the Earth has been altered out of its natural state into something completely different.

    That we are certain of. There is much more that we can be certain of. If we look at the geological record, for example, and what has happened in similar changes.

    It’s possible to calculate how much the warming of the planet will increase when all of the Arctic ice has gone, due to the lost albedo effect, reflecting heat back into space. The calculations can be made – with a margin of error, of course – and the resulting warming can be calculated and the effects of that warming can be estimated.

    It’s not just guesswork.

    Your dreams of love and beauty may provide you with comfort and solace. They have no effect upon the laws of physics and biology though.
    The life of the oceans is being destroyed. Dreams don’t help, do they.


  • Interesting: Monckton with Greenpeace lady

    dropping infobombs

  • Artleads

    Nice to see your posts too.
    I’ve been thin on the ground here because a lot is happening in the local field area. Moved house, now woofing locally. Tending gardens. Building and scrounging things, being a dad when appropriate, looking after a family dog,(being ‘redefined’ as we speak) in 3 locations and walked between them, making local contacts and selling ‘junk’ at markets-found a local ‘cropper swapper’ group, will investigate. All of this is a kind of hedging for me. Just seeing how the local area copes with the changes, and like Hamlet, the readiness is all.

    I concur with your general thesis that the creative arts is a way to go. I think local drama groups is a way to both foster the re-emergence of better community participation and ‘ownership’ of the ‘way we live’ paradigms, and to communicate the message of environmental concerns and the human activity mix.
    I have to say that working largely in elementary schools over the past year, going on long excursions to food-belt areas and into the national parks etc, these group of kids, all born after 2000, have got a good handle on the basics of climate change as a phenomena. Don’t know if that is unique, or it mirrors other parts of the planet in educational terms. But it is heartening to a small degree. I suspect this is not so widespread, but maybe others can say here.
    I am a little sceptical about ‘classic’ greenhouses having the sturdiness to withstand the extremes coming. I would be battening down the hatches. Just sayin.
    Must go and water the plants, walk the dog, go to work, move house some more.
    Good to hear from you.
    Best wishes.

  • @ Solaris blahblah

    interesting ? infobomb ? WHat ?

    Boring fucking troll shit. From 2009

  • @Ulvfugl – “Who cares when the last person dies.” I care even though I won’t be embodied when that happens. I mourn the possibility. I grieve for what we have done to our planet and all the living beings thereon. Our failure to live together in truth and love and celebration is profoundly depressing to me. If you tell me that my sense of the profound violation of all that is good and holy, and the pain that causes me will not remove one degree from the nightmare of climate disruption we are entering, of course you may be right. But if enough people felt as I have for many years, we would not have to deal with all that is facing us now. So neither you nor anyone can shame me for my inner feelings or make me somehow feel useless and ineffectual. I may not be able to save all beings from suffering, but I would if I could. And among those I am in contact with I try to be helpful and caring.

    I too have gone through periods of cursing and berating my fellow humans for not acting to save our world. But I am mostly recovered from that anger, and am more likely to feel compassion for my ineffectual and addicted friends who I am so much like. We are a sorry bunch much in need of each other’s forgiveness and compassion now. It is way too late now to try to browbeat each other into better behavior, if it was ever useful to do so, which it wasn’t. Anger will never get us where we need to go.

  • @ mike k

    But it’s totally ridiculous indulgence in romantic sentimentality, to care, to grieve, to mourn, over some fantasy in your imagination.

    Whoever is the last person to die is some far off future hypothetical event of which you will know nothing, just as you know nothing about the last Homo australis or the last dinosaur or the last of the 90% of species that have lived and become extinct.

    You, personally, choose to spend time in this particular fluffy emotional state, and to consider it has some virtue or some benefit or some admirable quality.

    I choose to see that as entirely absurd. If you actually want to avoid the horrible suffering and tragedy, then make a hard-headed analysis of the situation, of the causes, and the possible remedies, of what might possibly be done that would be effective, in some measure, and then take action.

    (I think you act, to some degree, according to what you’ve said.)

    But, as I see it, your analysis is all wrong. You seem to think that people can be redeemed, enlightened, reformed, brought to ‘the truth’, etc. I think that is obviously not possible and not going to happen.

    I think people who think what is happening is ethically unacceptable should resist as a matter of principle. Not because they expect to succeed, but purely because it is the only right course of action that an honourable moral person can take, under the circumstances.

    You may not be able to hear this of course, and I don’t endorse all of the ideas, it is slightly dated already.

  • @ mike k.

    ” It is way too late now to try to browbeat each other into better behavior, if it was ever useful to do so, which it wasn’t. Anger will never get us where we need to go.”

    Reminds me of the endless stream of junk mail from less than a dozen agencies. I use the paper for art projects while nonetheless shaking my head at the savage waste of trees. I will never buy their products. They can go to the far corner of hell first. But that does not stop their determined and senseless barrage.

    @ OzMan

    You sound like a hardy and fearless soul. Very much unlike me there. :-) The idea for the greenhouse is for the very near-term, getting along one step at a time. I don’t put much faith in it longer term. So far it’s the cold that whipping my tail. If/when it gets much hotter (if I’m still around) toxicity and further loss of pollinators would be the worry. Water too, of course. But I almost would rather deal with those problems than the cold.

  • @Ulvfugl – I have read most of what Derrick Jensen has written, as well as the deep green resistance with L. Keith, etc. I accept their analysis of all that is wrong with IC, but reject their ideas about sabotage, revolution, bringing down civ, etc. It won’t work or accomplish anything whatever in my opinion. They are right next door to the unfortunate nutcases known as doomsday preppers.

    The only real and lasting solution is for people to evolve to a higher level of mind and behavior. This will probably not happen, but there is no way to prove it impossible. I would rather work for and hope for a real solution rather than give up altogether or pursue half way and ineffective measures. Others may conclude differently and that is fine for them. We each should seek the stances and actions that make sense to us. If one should find an affinity group to work together with on our problem, that can be very helpful. One needs to fish around to find such allies.

  • To you all: Flight/Whither Now? was my first post here. I’m sort of amazed that only two or three of the nearly 100 comments actually referred to that first effort. “Tom” was one and said: “Mel: thanks for sharing your thoughts in the essay above. How does this UN climate change (in)decision impact your thoughts? Is it what you would do as a leader of a (former) “super-power?” Are we “locked in” to this due to economic forces, even though it causes our demise?”
    In answer (and I can’t adequately answer all those questions), I’ll take the middle one: what I’d do as a leader (of anything). Try to be honest and actually act as a good teacher, given that most are ignorant of an awful lot and need help. The question is in the political realm and since that is now largely controlled by ‘economic forces’ I’d guess we are just about locked in. -and thanks, Tom for actually addressing my post.
    The other named response invoked Flight Patterns by Barbara Kingsolver–and I thought it interesting that my wife was and is reading that; I’ve started it… and thanks again.
    I guess my personal meme, as an artist and teacher is that we have long ignored the development of our sensibility (not to be confused with sentimentality). Love of money and fear of risk and loss and lack of nurturing our whole human selves has led us to our current demise-promised condition. I am old, tired and sad, but am working and trying to share. so -Ciao, “good night and good luck”. – Mel

  • @ mike k

    The only real and lasting solution is for people to evolve to a higher level of mind and behavior. This will probably not happen, but there is no way to prove it impossible. I would rather work for and hope for a real solution rather than give up altogether or pursue half way and ineffective measures.

    See what I mean about woolly-minded nonsense versus hard-headed analysis ?

    Nobody is going to ‘evolve’ to suit your fanciful desires. As I’ve said before, people like you have been advocating this for the last 2 or 3 thousand years, wringing their hands and admonishing the masses for falling short and not matching the saints, and it never got anywhere, except into the mess we are in now, and yet, despite all the evidence daily in front of your eyes, you still cling to hopium, and then you admit yourself, ‘it probably won’t happen’… jeez

    You refuse to acknowledge reality and then claim you are working for a real solution. Absolutely hopeless.

    L. Keith addresses the problem of people like you in precise terms.

    People like you are totally irrelevant to Industrial Civilisation, therefore we get NTE while you dream your fanciful irresponsible hopium dreams.

    Imo, you betray all the other living things of the planet, because you refuse to accept your proper role.

  • @ Mel Strawn

    Apologies if nobody seemed to address your essay adequately…

    You said

    The quandary for me, perhaps for you: what, knowing the probable validity of these dire, near term events, is the right thing to do? Is it a moral responsibility to speak out, holding nothing back, including the prospect of near term extinction of our own species within this century? How do we engage others in discussing such difficult to believe information? It has, for me, been persuasively argued that only taking personal “carbon footprint” actions such as changing light bulbs, buying a more fuel efficient car, not eating meat, recycling is not going to make the critical difference required. More is required and that more calls for collective action: organizing and making public educational and political statements. Even these are problematical; they may or may not take us to a “negative” tipping point (the way back to sanity and survival). Yet, is it not an obligation to load the dice in this way, by opposing actively and in concert with others those practices that are driving us toward disaster at an increasing speed? And, as Guy points out, is taking action not the best antidote to both apathy and despair?

    There is no answer, is there. Each one of us has to find there own personal answer, by a process, working through the anguish.

    Nobody can tell anybody else what their answer should be. Not least, because if you decide to speak out or act, it may have consequences, and if you keep silent and betray your deepest principles, you’re doing some serious damage to what you are, and those sort of choices have to be one’s own, they can’t be shuffled off onto someone else.

    Anybody whose read these blog comments knows, there’s a very big range of views…

  • @ mike k.

    “’Who cares when the last person dies.’ I care even though I won’t be embodied when that happens. I mourn the possibility. I grieve for what we have done to our planet and all the living beings thereon.”

    We are not separate from other life forms. I think we’re largely made up of bacteria that are not exactly “us.” And we could not last a day without other life forms. There is no case for separating our demise from that of any other form of life.