The Latest from Reese Jones, and NTHE Questions #7 and #8

Climate News of the Day – The Methane Monster Rears His Ugly Head and Folks, It Isn’t Pretty

by Reese Jones

THE CLATHRATE GUN WAS FIRED 7 YEARS AGO, BUT THAT SINGLE-BARRELED SHOTGUN HAS TRANSFORMED ITSELF INTO A GATLING GUN. METHANE RELEASE IS NOW OCCURRING AT UNPRECEDENTED RATES.

Dr. Guy McPherson presents us with rather devastating news … as he and other scientists have predicted, the current permafrost and deep sea ice melts are occurring rapidly in the upper reaches of our Northern hemisphere. This has caused accelerated clathrate decomposition, allowing for the unprecedented release of millennia-old methane hydrate gas.

Methane acts as a greenhouse gas with anywhere from 20 to 100 times the effect of CO2 at trapping heat within our atmosphere. Short-lived though it may be, methane’s average 7 year half-life gives it more than enough time to cause utter global, climactic chaos.

And, to top it off, there is also the threat of huge bubbles of methane gas suddenly bursting to the surface, causing global temperatures to spike over 1.6 degrees C virtually overnight. This would shoot us way past the 2 degree target limit set by the IPCC.

This could well be, the beginning of the end.

So … where’s the good news in all of this?

Well … you know all the things you’ve come to hate about life on Earth? Not to worry. They may all, well, just disappear. Poof! Along with everything else, of course.

Or, perhaps you’ve become increasingly irritated by the bumbling tomfoolery of your politicians, your neighbors, or perhaps your local grocer. Well! They may soon be tying their dusty, tattered coattails into a bundle and trundling themselves off to somewhere worse even than the place they were attempting to flee.

All right … in all seriousness … such news is disquieting, to say the least. Many of us may have had our sneaking little suspicions, but many of us did not, and are especially vulnerable emotionally.

This news is not meant to shock and dismay, even if it does that rather well. But rather, it was meant to give us a head’s up; the opportunity to ascend beyond our consumerism lifestyle, to perhaps reach down deep within ourselves and find that pure child we once were, capable of living in this instant, neither worrying about something we can do nothing about, nor changing something that is unchangeable.

There is still time. Every little thing we do, every loving little attitude we can muster, helps us, and helps others around us, to live well despite all our troubles.

Humans have always dealt with the specter of atrocious tidings, ever omnipresent at the door. There is hardly a generation that didn’t live with devastation around the corner one way or another, or perhaps, living a life of utter boredom, filled with spiritual and moral decay. For those who had a good life in the past, it was often very short.

So, let us bathe each other with all the affections and kindnesses we can muster. Let us find ways to be good to the living creatures around us, so innocent, yet so tragically subject to our machinations and our cruelties.

We get to live in this most interesting time in our human history. We get to see the fulmination of all our foibles and all our dreams, as well as our nightmares. We may likely get to see the End Times all the prophets of yesteryear have spoken of … so highly.

THINK about it … we are pieces of the Universe; collections of a mysterious, fleshly, self-actualizing dust that manifested the Universe’s ability to CONTEMPLATE ITSELF. If that isn’t utterly magnificent, well I don’t know what is.

ONE more thing — when all gets too hard to bear, think love. Truly … think LOVE. Just the Word. What’s in a word? More than one might imagine.

**

Assuming a comparable descent through worsening levels of difficulties and chaos, is NTHE “better” or “worse” in 2035 versus 2050 versus 2100?

**

As Guy points out in his presentations, the climate news gets more dire as the years go by, and computers get more powerful and scientific predictions about the climate get more dire. With this in mind, could the prediction of NTHE starting around 2030 get updated to begin even sooner than that?

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Last night’s radio show is linked here. It features an interview with two representatives from Deep Green Resistance, brief segments on breaking hopium with Lindsay Morrison and Forrest Palmer, news beyond the mainstream, Doomer of the Week, and an updated forecast about this year’s El Niño.

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Catch Nature Bats Last on the radio with Mike Sliwa and Guy McPherson. Tune in every Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern time, or catch up in the archives here. If you prefer the iTunes version, including the option to subscribe, you can click here. Next week’s show will feature an interview with two people living well outside the mainstream, brief segments on breaking hopium with Lindsay Morrison and Forrest Palmer, news beyond the mainstream, Doomer of the Week, and an update on the climate-change front.

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McPherson’s forthcoming book is co-authored by Carolyn Baker. Extinction Dialogs: How to Live with Death in Mind has been submitted to the publisher and is scheduled for release before 1 October 2014.

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Find and join the Near-Term Human Extinction Support Group on Facebook here

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If you have registered, or you intend to register, please send an email message to guy.r.mcpherson@gmail.com. Include the online moniker you’d like to use in this space. I’ll approve your registration as quickly as possible. Thanks for your patience.

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Going Dark is available from the publisher here, from Amazon here, from Amazon on Kindle here, from Barnes & Noble on Nook here, and as a Google e-book here. Going Dark was reviewed by Carolyn Baker at Speaking Truth to Power, Anne Pyterek at Blue Bus Books, and by more than three dozen readers at Amazon.

Comments 90

  • Earth will eventually be baked to a cinder, but meanwhile life resists and temporarily defeats entropy, by evolving and sustaining a chaotic balance of species which is exquisitely complex and heterogeneous. Humans also generate complexity, but with an important difference: human complexity accelerates Earth’s entropy and is therefore unsustainable. Examples include dissipation of stored energy (via extraction and consumption), loss of genetic information (species extinction), and replacement of low-entropy diversity (e.g. tropical rain forests) with high-entropy monoculture (e.g. industrial agriculture and ranching). Many of the cradles of humanity–including Iran, Iraq and much of the Mediterranean coast–were once heavily forested, and are now reduced to a high-entropy state (semiarid or desert) after only a few thousand years of human occupation.

    Evolution can be described as self-replicating agents in an environment of differential survival. Self-replicating agents always have the potential for feedback, i.e. runaway growth followed by a crash and extinction; it’s an unavoidable built-in risk. Each agent maximizes its opportunities, and grows until it reaches limits, such as lack of resources or increased predation. It’s a precarious strategy, and it tends to create arms races.

    Evolution converges on arms races between increasingly sophisticated apex predators. These arms races set the stage for the emergence of a super-predator with the linguistic capabilities required for cultural evolution. The first species to achieve significant cultural evolution inevitably out-competes and dominates all the others, and spreads rapidly, exterminating any species not immediately useful in order to monopolize Earth’s carrying capacity for itself. The damage occurs in an eye blink relative to geological time, far faster than biological systems can adapt, and occurs on a sufficiently massive scale to make Earth unsuitable for life, perhaps permanently.

    Adaptations such as complex sensory organs have been lost, and then re-evolved again from scratch, repeatedly. Even if humans were to disappear magically in an instant, what would prevent a similarly opportunistic super-predator from evolving to infest the Earth? According to the inexorable logic of genetic selection, nothing.

    The images from our telescopes are clear enough to grasp that the universe is a harsh and violent place. The majority of it is empty and freezing, and much of the rest is filled with dust and barren chunks of rock, or exploding gas at millions of degrees Kelvin. Even if life is occurring elsewhere, odds are we’ll never know about it. For all practical purposes we and our fellow travelers on Earth are alone in the universe. It seems intolerable that against such odds, all the richness and diversity of life could evolve here, only to climax in such a ruthless and self-defeating species.

  • S’far’s I’m concerned, the later the NTHE date, the less my involvement. And the converse also holds. How soon? Once the dragon burps, all bets are off. Perhaps not just pitchforks, but the second coming of Madame Guillotine – this time to ‘mericuh.

    The difference between concerned and involved: with a breakfast of ham and eggs, the chicken is concerned, but the pig is involved.

  • I’m no longer concerned. yes, I’m still involved, but I don’t want to be and I’ve done all I can to be involved as little as possible.

    Is collapse happening?

    Are people dieing of starvation?

    Are there places where electricity does not run 24/7/365?

    Are there places where there is no clean water and sanitation?

    In sub-Saharan Africa, seven out of 10 people don’t have access to electricity. That means that moms give birth in the dark. Families can’t refrigerate their food.

    http://www.churchofeuthanasia.org/e-sermons/antihumanism.html

  • Thanks, Laurel (from the forum), for pointing out the excellent article on The Church of Euthanasia’s website:

    http://www.churchofeuthanasia.org/e-sermons/antihumanism.html

    I also noticed that Pat’s first comment here should be accredited to the Evolution portion of the same piece.

  • “what would prevent a similarly opportunistic super-predator from evolving to infest the Earth?”

    An adequate body size to support a large brain requires an oxygen transport system that does not depend on diffusion all the way. The oxygen carrier in vertebrates is haemoglobin and in some molluscs is haemocyanin. Earthworms also have haemoglobin, but their haemoglobin is free, and increases the viscosity, and hence in low concentrations, unlike vertebrate haemoglobin which is in corpuscles and can be in increased concentrations without a corresponding increase in viscosity. The respiratory gas exchange involves diffusion across a microscopic distance in the gill or lung, and another microscopic distance in the tissues. Air and lungs are a whole lot more effective at gas exchange than gills and water: hence there are no fish as big as whales.

    Overlapping visual fields to provide binocular vision was de rigueur when swinging from branch to branch during our arboreal phase with other primates, as were prehensile hands and feet. Once our prehensile hands were freed of ambulation, they could be used for manipulating objects and fashioning tools that was associated with an increase in brain size and opposability of the thumbs.

    The closest to filling the bill would be primates, but since we diverged from chimpanzees, and the rest of the branches of our lineage went extinct, there is no current primate that seems a promising candidate for a similar evolutionary course.

    Also, every biological system survives by promoting energy flows that would not occur as efficiently without the system: they all promote entropy faster than would occur without them.

    Energy flows that would be more efficient without the biological systems will proceed without such systems.

  • “Assuming a comparable descent through worsening levels of difficulties and chaos, is NTHE “better” or “worse” in 2035 versus 2050 versus 2100?”

    I’d have to say sooner is worse. In 2035 I might live to see a good part of a major human die-off, which is something I don’t particularly relish. If we get to 2100, my own children won’t see the worst of it, I’m thinking. Forgive me for being selfish, but that’d be a win as far as I’m concerned.

    (Some part of me — the stupid part, no doubt — though, would like to be there for the whole show.)

    “As Guy points out in his presentations, the climate news gets more dire as the years go by, and computers get more powerful and scientific predictions about the climate get more dire. With this in mind, could the prediction of NTHE starting around 2030 get updated to begin even sooner than that?”

    I think that those who understand the problems know that it could all go pear-shaped about any time now. In geologic time, we’re already there, more or less. I think we can and will see a lot more chaotic stuff, happening, real soon. Hope I’m wrong.

    Hey! Thanks for these questions.

    The answers may not matter that much, I know. My own answers are likely wrong, I know. But there seems to be a lot of therapeutic value in considering the questions, and for that, I’m truly grateful.

  • Windows 75, 2100, sure.
    Seriously, I doubt it makes it 2030. Sadly I’ll most likely be here to see and feel it all.
    The longer total collapse takes, the more chances we have to kill other life, so yes—NO FURTHER!

  • ‘Burn Baby Burn -The terrifying truth about global warming and the global consumer society.’ Written by me over 2000-2001, published in 2001, 1000 copies printed; most copies unread: those read unheeded.

    ‘Limits to growth’, Meadows group,1972: catastrophe by around 2030 if humanity doesn’t change course. Humanity didn’t change course.

  • What’s up with the PG version of the awesome “Nature Bats Last” song? Gia calling us “Mother Fuckers” is one of my favorite parts. How progressive can a radio network be if you cannot even say A-swear word on it? Rape of the earth, extinction of most species including us, horrific death of innocents, liars, cheating, war, greed, etc. All that is up for discussion; just don’t swear in case someone gets offended.

    It’s payback time – Mother Fuckers – It’s payback time

  • Apneaman
    I was going to comment on that very subject-motherfucker.

  • ‘Assuming a comparable descent through worsening levels of difficulties and chaos, is NTHE “better” or “worse” in 2035 versus 2050 versus 2100?’

    That depends on where you are living and who is around you.

    ‘…could the prediction of NTHE starting around 2030 get updated to begin even sooner than that?

    NTHE cannot start. Either humans are extinct or they are not, the same as dodos. Either three are sufficient breeding pairs or there are not.

    A better question would be: When is the current growth in human population likely to be reversed.

    By the way, the oceans are very deep and have a huge thermal mass. And there is still an awful lot of ice to melt. Extinction by 2030: unlikely. Mayhem: plenty.

    Stating the obvious: The sooner the mayhem commences, the greater the chance of remnants surviving longer.

  • You all are weak minded, common sense tells you that NTHE was yesterday and nobody even noticed because they were too busy trending on twitter. This narcotizing/necrotizing dysfunction has turned us all into zombies. We confuse knowing something with doing something, or talk for walk.

  • Symbiotic relationship between energy and the economy and the perception of wealth

    Our debt-based financial system is a result of growth allowed through essentially free energy and, therefore, is dependent upon growth. Said another way, forms of wealth that include Fractional Reserve Lending, equities, corporate bonds, letters of credit, infrastructure project funding, and debt-based currency (Federal Reserve Notes) all depend upon future growth to pay back the debt.

    The financial system is maintained with negative-feedback loops; but, the system is also extremely complex and unable to assess true risk as demonstrated in the London Whale blowup. However, once the system breaks through its outer limits, reverse positive-feedback loops take control. One example is panic stock selling, but in today’s economy the most likely outcome would be a lack of trust and panic withdraw of credit as occurred in 2008.

    Turning our attention to energy, we see our modern societies have become dependent on nearly-free energy with Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROI) factor of at least 8:1 to maintain current living standards. But an EROI of 14:1 is required to support such things as good education, health care, and the arts.

    The bad news is that our EROI is on the cusp of dropping exponentially and as EROI continues to drop (Arctic, deep sea, tar-sand and shale-oil, have an average EROI of 5:1), economic growth will slow with far reaching and devastating reversal of global prosperity in an unequal fashion.

    Once one accepts that growth will slow or even cease, all of the current common sense assumptions about financial investing, such as the assumption of making money from money, cease to be true.

    Funding the needed $trillions to develop 5-3:1 EROI oil infrastructure in a low-to-zero growth world economy will be almost impossible. This simple realization would create a positive-feedback loop of bankruptcies that would destabilize and crash the world’s financial system.

    Again, wealth is based upon future growth, so the wealth that disappears in a financial crash is stocks, endowment funds, pension funds, insurance companies portfolios, the ability of governments to borrow, and the ability of governments to tax.

    Today’s wealth is a perception of future growth. If that perception shifts negatively as a result excessive risk in financial markets or an unexpected decrease in EROI, the world’s civilization may reset itself back to the 1850s.

    ====
    Roger Boyd Video – Financial System on Life Support – July 2014

    Roger Boyd Book – Energy and the Financial System: What Every Economist, Financial Analyst, and Investor Needs to Know – February 28, 2014
    https://www.amazon.com/Energy-Financial-System-Economist-SpringerBriefs/dp/3319042378/

    Similar to the topic of Nate Hagens: Twenty (Important) Concepts I Wasn’t Taught in Business School – Part I
    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8402

  • Awhile back, the wizard Greer called Guy a Doomsday cult leader and often takes shots at him without being brave enough to name him. For the past few weeks he has been schooling his flock on our current and upcoming consequences. He is pretty much covering the exact same things Guy has been passing along for years. This week it’s all the nuclear power plants and cooling pools in North America. Sneaky underhanded wizard. All the makings of a successful politician or CEO. Never trust a wizard kids.

  • Towards the end of this video from RT on August 8th 2014, Dr. Michael Mann appears to have a somewhat more moderate approach regarding the effect of methane on global warming. Even though we may reached a tipping point and are likely to cross the 2 degree threshhold, he stated it would require 10% of all stored methane to have comparable warming effects caused by the burning of fossil fuels as projected over a time period extending to the end of this century.

    Of course the question is with both factors acting in concert, how do we stand?

    But as he puts it, we may have passed the first exit ramp with respect to the 2 degree C threshhold, but we should work towards the next exit ramp, and the next after that. This does not mean we should give up.

    He also atributed Jason Box’s “We’re f**ked” comment to being simply,”taken aback.”

    Interesting to see both sides of this issue. It seems to Dr. Mann, constructive solutions are still worth pursuing.

  • METHANE RELEASE IS NOW OCCURRING AT UNPRECEDENTED RATES.

    I don’t think that is clear, at all. Where are the historic data? We see Arctic methane still rising slowly (perhaps slightly less quickly than in the 90s). If the clathrate gun fired seven years ago, where is the evidence in the atmospheric record?

    I sometimes visit another site which dwells on catastrophe (which I think will occur in my time) and a poster there was equally adamant that huge methane releases were occurring and he had little time for gainsayers. About 3 years ago, he projected a timeline, based on what he thought the Shakhova/Semiletov was coming up with, with 2-5 degrees C of further global warming within 5 years. There are 2 years to go on that prediction but nothing anywhere near that significant so far. He still thinks it’s happening despite little evidence.

    As someone else, on that site, pointed out, there must be some magical methane sink that is sucking up most of the methane. If that is true, or if the releases aren’t anywhere near the levels predicted, then this isn’t, yet, a game changer.

  • “there must be some magical methane sink that is sucking up most of the methane. If that is true, or if the releases aren’t anywhere near the levels predicted, then this isn’t, yet, a game changer.”

    That is much needed good news, indeed. Now let’s not allow any contrariness, and all will be well.

  • Good morning everyone.

    Tony: why do you have such a hard time with FROZEN clathrates THAWING and releasing their captive methane? Your “hysterical data” question is hopium in disguise. I suppose the giant fires occurring in the northern hemisphere in the former perma-frost areas won’t have any effect either by your “nobody-took-measurements-of-the-frozen-permafrost” reasoning. You and Scott Johnson exhibit so much normalcy bias that it’s hard to communicate with you. You can believe what you want, but you’re becoming a waste of time and will be surprised when tshtf in the coming years.

    Reminds me of this:

    A judge tells a condemned prisoner that he will be hanged at noon on one weekday in the following week but that the execution will be a surprise to the prisoner. He will not know the day of the hanging until the executioner knocks on his cell door at noon that day.

    Having reflected on his sentence, the prisoner draws the conclusion that he will escape from the hanging. His reasoning is in several parts. He begins by concluding that the “surprise hanging” can’t be on Friday, as if he hasn’t been hanged by Thursday, there is only one day left – and so it won’t be a surprise if he’s hanged on Friday. Since the judge’s sentence stipulated that the hanging would be a surprise to him, he concludes it cannot occur on Friday.

    He then reasons that the surprise hanging cannot be on Thursday either, because Friday has already been eliminated and if he hasn’t been hanged by Wednesday night, the hanging must occur on Thursday, making a Thursday hanging not a surprise either. By similar reasoning he concludes that the hanging can also not occur on Wednesday, Tuesday or Monday. Joyfully he retires to his cell confident that the hanging will not occur at all.

    The next week, the executioner knocks on the prisoner’s door at noon on Wednesday — which, despite all the above, was an utter surprise to him. Everything the judge said came true.

    meanwhile, here in reality:

    https://arctic-news.blogspot.ca/2014/08/horrific-methane-eruptions-in-east-siberian-sea.html

    Wednesday, August 13, 2014

    Horrific Methane Eruptions in East Siberian Sea

    A catastrophe of unimaginable propertions is unfolding in the Arctic Ocean. Huge quantities of methane are erupting from the seafloor of the East Siberian Sea and entering the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean.

    [read the entire article, if interested]

  • On the Timeline Questions:

    At first, that was my major concern: When Does All This Happen?
    But upon realizing it is happening now, that each passing day is another unnatural release of industrial CO2 and another release of methane from the Arctic and elsewhere, the timeline seems less and less important.

    If the world is plunged headfirst into chaos and ruin tomorrow or next week or in one hundred years hardly matters. The overriding meaning of NTE is that this is the only life we have, use it well.

    Guy always closes with a “live a life of excellence” message and that’s the one I picked over the rising methane and eventual snuffing of the biosphere. How one lives a life of excellence is entirely up to the individual. If you think it means moving to Tibet and drinking nothing but yak milk, go for it. If you think it means collecting every single episode of Star Trek and the all the spin off shows, who is to say your life is wrong?

    Connecting with other people is vital. But that has always been vital. Laughter, love and being able to appreciate what you have is far more important then the brief period of time you experience before death. Extinction makes death meaningless. Only life matters. Go out and live.

  • “Connecting with other people is vital.”

    However, trying to find folks with ideas similar to NBL might land one in the loon bin.

  • I realize this blog’s focus is Climate Change and the prospects of NTHE but this world is so corrupt via capitalism and racism that it hardly matters because MOST of this tiny blue orb is suffering from a hell just as bad as extinction maybe even worse because the timeline never ends.

    I agree with the “life of excellence” promoters. We have no choice but to strive to cope as best we can while we have the right (few do) to solitude, or, whatever you can come up with that leads to contentment for you and your family, if you happen to have one. We are among the fortunate FEW with that exponentially low contentment opportunity. Maybe, we also should be about helping others less fortunate on our street or road. Wonder how I can do that? It is hard?

  • However, it is very satisfying to hear that 12″ of rain fell on Long Island, N.Y. recently.

  • Robin Datta notes: “However, trying to find folks with ideas similar to NBL might land one in the loon bin.”

    Though this entire site begs to differ.

    You know, you can connect over other things besides doom, right?
    A cup of coffee on a train platform might lead to a romance. Open up and let the sunshine in.

    Shep says: “However, it is very satisfying to hear that 12″ of rain fell on Long Island, N.Y. recently.”

    What will be even funnier is when the coastal cities are forced to evacuate and all those people move in next to you.

    We’re all connected in more ways than one. A little sympathy might be required.

  • A contrarian group, a bunch of pessimists, a death cult, quitters, crazies and Doomers-we are called these names and more. With land cracked and water levels dropped, with ice caps melted, protest stomped, wars raged, earth poked full of holes and rivers and lakes poisoned, what should we do? Ignore it all?
    Maybe if we just go to the malls and buy more shoes. Everything will be fine.
    We can be the best dressed death cult ever!

  • Ass usual, I forgot the punchline above…

    In reading Horrific Methane Eruptions in East Siberian Sea Prof Wadhams explains: “We really have no choice except to seriously consider the use of geoengineering.”

    It simply can not happen in today’s economic world. Why? Because there is no future to repay the debt in a true catastrophe.

    Another possibility was outlined in the movie “2012” (released November 13, 2009) where world governments come together to build arks in the Himalayas, but in this case, to geoengineer. Even though such efforts would be futile, would you join in?

    My guess is no; because regardless what the posts here at NBL appear to be, they are simply expressions of grief.

    Horrific Methane Eruptions in East Siberian Sea
    https://arctic-news.blogspot.ca/2014/08/horrific-methane-eruptions-in-east-siberian-sea.html
    Film 2012
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_%28film%29

  • .
    Think for yourselves and let others enjoy the privilege to do so too.

    Voltaire, Essay on Tolerance
    .
    .
    The essential promise of a consumer society is that virtually all satisfaction can be purchased. This promise runs so deep in us that we’ve come to take our identity from our capacity to purchase: I shop, therefore I am. The dependency on shopping is not just about things, it includes the belief that what is fulfilling or needed in life can be bought — from happiness to healing; from love to laughter; from raising a child to caring for someone.
    .
    Yet of the three factors environmentalists often point to as responsible for environmental pollution — population, technology, and consumption — consumption seems to get the least attention. One reason, no doubt, is that it may be the most difficult to change; our consumption patterns are so much a part of our lives that to change them would require a massive cultural overhaul, not to mention severe economic dislocation. A drop in demand for products, as economists note, brings on economic recession or even depression, along with massive unemployment.

  • ?#7: Since the die-off from climate change has already begun, the misery will be much WORSE if NTHE is prolonged.

    ?#8: I believe Paul Beckwith’s (one of Guy’s sources and Guy please correct me if I am wrong) research has shown a possible/likely 16C increase in the average temperature of the planet in 10 years. That would pretty much be game over for both plant and animal kingdoms before 2030.

    For those of you reading this blog (can we call ourselves “Extinctionistas” or “Extinctionati”), I recommend that you read Elizabeth Kolbert’s new book, “The Sixth Extinction”. Guy, have you reviewed this book?

  • Guy, I wanted to question the reasoning behind your seeming support for Deep Green Resistance. If we are facing NTHE then what can be the justification for the loss of innocent lives (which they admit could happen)as they advocate the use of violence to bring about the end of industrial civilization? Doesn’t this contradict your belief in using the time we have left to treat others with compassion?

  • @ Tom

    Thanks for that tremendous condemned prisoner story, I never heard that before,and

    @ Modern Money Mechanics

    thanks for educational finance stuff, which I don’t understand very well…

    ——

    What is nuclear darkness?

    In a nuclear war, burning cities would create millions of tons of thick, black smoke. This smoke would rise above cloud level, into the stratosphere, where it would quickly spread around the planet. A large nuclear war would produce enough smoke to block most sunlight from reaching the Earth’s surface.

    http://www.nucleardarkness.org/web/whatisnucleardarkness/

  • “Extinctionistas”
    I like that. I see a band of ne’er-do-wells, with really nice shoes, robbing an abandoned bank with no one around but them,when suddenly, Pedro, of course, played by some red-headed white guy, drinks the last of the water from a baggie and they all start shooting each other.

  • ulvfugl: The Unexpected Hanging paradox was discussed in Philosophy (way back when I was in college) and I never forgot it.

    Here’s wiki on it (so you can explore the depth)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unexpected_hanging_paradox

    [As always, great comments today everyone.]

    Speaking of comments

    http://www.theburningplatform.com/2014/08/12/transformation/

    the story is worth the read too

  • If you have food in your fridge, clothes on your back, a roof over your head and a place to sleep you are richer than 75% of the world.

    If you have money in the bank, your wallet, and some spare change you are among the top 8% of the wordl’s wealthy.

    If you woke up this morning with more health than illness you are more blessed than the million people who will not survive this week.

    If you have never experienced the danger of battle, the agony of imprisonment or torture, or the horrible pangs of starvation, You are luckier than 500 million people alive and suffering.

    If you can read this message you are more fortunate than 3 billion people in the world who cannot read it at all.

  • @mt

    You got my point. Just trying to maintain some humor in all this horror. Also, RE at the Doomstead Diner has already claimed the “Doomer” moniker. Guy needs to use a different descriptor for us followers/admirers of his work.

  • State of shock. A celebrity death theoretically should not affect us so. Just another human, equal to any other we lose, right? We’re all “beyond that”, but then, we’ve been discussing (occasionally) suicide here. As a very small subset of the populace, we lost Mike Ruppert, and now the entire “entertained” public has lost Robin Williams.

    Something that “brings people together” by cracking the veneer of the culture’s shallow commercial complacency. “Entertainers” are NOT supposed to “take it all back” in such a dramatic move! We might actually all have to look at REALLY having REAL lives, instead of distracted comatose existence! Breaking through the mass hypnosis — OMFG! Must. Not. Reveal. Mass. Psychosis.

    What we, Robin and I, had in common was both growing up on Jonathan Winters, master of improv, and survivor of early mental illness. Robin knew this, and, I think, leaned on Jonathan’s life story as a beacon for his own.

    But Jonathan made it to age 87 a year ago, and Robin felt that loss deeply. I now feel like, overreaching as it may seem, that I should have expressed my sympathies somehow to Robin. But I never had attached myself to his comedy very strongly, though I knew we both had depended on Jonathan to get us through our difficult teen years. And now I suspect myself of sensing Robin’s vulnerability and instability, and therefore avoiding an attachment.

    We were too similar, at several stages back, and so I would not let myself be “entertained” by him.

    Study, as much as you can bear, the disease of depression, of which suicide is the ultimate symptom. (I’ve had Styron’s book out of the library twice, but hardly opened it.) And find your own relationship to it. Find your own “edge”. (I suspect that we will face an epidemic of “senior suicides” in coming years.)

    We’ve probably all had situational depressions over certain circumstances, and NTHE is certainly one for the catalog on that. But it is fundamentally different than chemical depression of the kind that claims our friends early in life, and leaves us saddened.

    Cutting this short, and remembering the few friends I’ve lost to suicide, I want to say “Follow your impulse to reach out. Express your love and appreciation without inhibition, especially to those in whom you sense that vulnerability.”

    Here at NBL, I want to say to those that have raised (IMO, prematurely) the suicide topic, if you are speaking, at some remove, about yourself, I love and appreciate YOUR expression, and find that it takes me deep into thought about my own life, and what I value most. You shake up my complacency, and challenge me to not be just a “useless slug” — the thought that goes through my mind some mornings as I start into the repetitive patterns of my life.
    You have managed to create a “living presence” through your voice here, and the best of you shines through that intelligent and compassionate writing. I want to continue to hear your thoughts throughout whatever years remain to us.

    Between 13 and 23 I did beat on myself internally quite a bit, dancing on the edge at times, especially toward the end of that period. (And yes, part of it did include realizing that I was part of an evil, invasive, death-dealing species. The acid was still pretty clean in 1969.)

    Then I passed, in several stages, through my own “Dark Night”, gained perspective while helping a few friends who did not make it through theirs, and realized (1) that I was sincere — and “good”, not “evil” — and (2) that I did not need to give myself a hard time in my life. There were plenty of other people around who were perfectly willing to do that for me, and I would get ample exercise ducking their punches and avoiding walking into their traps. (Not that that stopped me completely.)

    I “outgrew” the habit of self-blaming, and the self-destructive impulses. Relieved that my brain is only mildly O/C, and not manic- or chemically-depressed. (Though I still cannot get near the open edge of a tall building without my feet cramping and sweating. It nearly kept me from enjoying hotel breakfasts recently, a measure of my coming to a settlement with those impulsive imaginings. Guess I was just that hungry. 😉

    Going through my head in these days since this recent shock, master of crafting inerasable pop-schlock, Barry Manilow:

    “I’m finding it hard to do anything… If you only knew what I’m going through…”

    =========

    Pat — I don’t tell people not to have their own children, but I think we could agree on telling them that there are plenty of children worldwide who badly need us and could give us nearly the same experience sought through reproduction. I’ve done both — step-parent and procreated — and at this point in our awareness of NTHE, taking on a helpful role in a child’s life qualifies as a “life of excellence” that could be most satisfying.

    Speaking of “excellence”, remind ourselves to discuss Epicurus sometime, as perhaps the earliest advanced exponent of Guy’s philosophical conclusions.

    ============

    Here’s one for Ulvfugl, as I sign off. I knew John Oliver was brilliant on Stewart, but I hadn’t seen the new show yet. I’ll be a regular watcher now:

    Tierra del Fuego, baby!

  • Since Pat forgot to use quotation marks once again and neglected to cite sources (snark), allow me to perform his ethical work for him.

    In today’s comment, the first paragraph was lifted from Peter Block and John McKnight:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-block/the-limits-of-consumption_b_805506.html

    The second paragraph was copied from Richard Robbins, as displayed in this article:

    http://www.globalissues.org/article/238/effects-of-consumerism

    I don’t like cheats, and Pat’s contempt for his audience here and the authors he steals from is spectacular.

  • @PHIL

    Get a life dud. Quotations are nothing more than profit conspiracies for the hi-brows. Simply one of a million things rotten within this society!

  • .
    Newbies beware:
    oops, sorry, third post today just to clarify – my posts are just passing on stuff – not like anything I’ve ever posted was “original thought” anyway and I figured that goes without saying.

    in the future, just assume everything I post is just cut and paste – and however that makes you feel, feel it.

    feel it.

    from Reuters:
    Higher Coffee Prices:
    Keurig is following rivals, including Kraft Foods Group Inc and J.M. Smucker Co, which raised prices in June for some of their best-known brands, including Maxwell House and Folgers. Analysts said price hikes are likely to cause some sticker shock in the near term as consumers balk at paying a higher price for their daily brew. (Reporting by Josephine Mason; Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)

  • most “collapse-aware” blogs have this:

    Public Domain Notice
    Any article on this web site may be reproduced by anyone, in whole or in part , in any manner and for any purpose whatsoever, with no restrictions.

    don’t worry, be happy

  • In the previous thread Daniel says: It is intellectually disingenuous to one day accept NTE to be highly probable, and then turn around and query a scenario which requires an even longer time frame. We can’t have it both ways if we want to be honest with ourselves.

    NTE Oscillations

    Between different worlds we are swept
    While we get mentally prepped;
    This crazy effect
    Is what to expect
    ‘Cause doom is so hard to accept.

  • I see Brent oil has fallen (or been manipulated) to below $102. That will help prevent the global economic system from imploding in the short term, and will ensure that CO2 emissions required to stimulate faster release of semi-sequestered methane are maintained.

    Just how oil companies are going to maintain their business model is something of a mystery, since all the new oil exploration is in difficult-to-access (and therefore very expensive locations.

  • We meet today during the worst and potentially most dangerous American-Russian confrontation in many decades, probably since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. The Ukrainian civil war, precipitated by the unlawful change of government in Kiev in February, is already growing into a proxy US-Russian war. The seemingly unthinkable is becoming imaginable: an actual war between NATO, led by the United States, and post-Soviet Russia.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/180942/new-cold-war-and-necessity-patriotic-heresy#

  • Escalation over the Ukraine conflict, a/k/a Cold War 2.0, just took another major step forward. Because here comes the cavalry… literally.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-14/us-sending-600-troops-apcs-and-tanks-countries-bordering-russia-reassure-threatened-

  • Oh, and “our man” in Iraq just resigned:

    http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2014/08/nouri-al-maliki-announces-his.html

    {concludes]

    Initially, al-Maliki opposed al-Abbadi’s appointment as the new prime minister and said it was a gross violation of the Constitution.

    Things are getting “interesting.”

  • @Apneaman

    Thank you for alerting me about the moniker “Doomer”. Since Doomer was not registered, I filed an application for the mark with the USPTO, When Doomer™ is granted, I will bequeath it to RE. I will do the same with “Extinctionista” and give it to Guy.

    @ Robin Datta

    Please forgive me if you have an issue with intellectual property rights.

  • “Please forgive me if you have an issue with intellectual property rights.”

    Other’s sanction of methods of enforcement are their choice, and not an issue.

  • Who is a doomer?

    “In my opinion, warning of potential doom does not make you a doomer. But participating in activities that make that doom more likely: that makes you a doomer.”

  • As I contemplate this very weird scenario of possibly witnessing the NTHE in my lifetime, what I keep thinking about is how quickly (about 220 years) the capital-industrial virus killed the world. All of the abundance of life we had just two centuries ago, vanishing so quickly and accelerating now. Of course, the seeds of capitalism were planted earlier – perhaps about the time the enclosures began in England, where commons were taken from the peasants and put into wool production for profit. The attitude that some humans were better than others, more empowered by God, of higher breeding, was the root for the rationalization that some humans could have everything while everyone else had almost nothing. It was that attitude (woven into our moral code, i.e. God gives the king, and his friends, power to rule completely) which has brought about this extinction. One, horrible, unnatural idea, which today is as strong as ever among the elite class, has killed humankind and unknown numbers of other life forms on this little beautiful planet. Why were so few humans able to perpetuate such a poisonous and deadly notion? I just keep thinking about how quickly it has all happened.

  • Why Acceptance Takes Time

    Brain neural pathways require
    Certain stimuli to rewire,
    And rate limiting steps
    In these chemical preps
    All take time to transpire.
    ==

    Priorities

    Watching the world ‘round us shatter,
    We engage in impotent chatter;
    We thought we were smart,
    But we’re falling apart,
    And trying to make anything matter.

  • tiptop

    Thanks for the very concise assessment. It seems like a clarifying way to look at the predicament. One more potential tool, perhaps.

  • Dear Professor McPherson, I have been a great admirer of your climate-change alarm work ever since I first heard one of your presentations on You Tube about 18 months ago. And, I suppose that I have since many times listened or viewed every one of the climate-change alarm presentations which you may have posted in recent years. Typically, those presentations had seemed very professional and you had repeatedly won me over with your apparent sincerity. Yet, the reason as to why I do presently write you is to try to advise you that your thus far twice broadcast ‘Nature Bats Lasts’ radio program would seem to have been a horrible mistake. Professor McPherson you would seem to have absolutely no actually good political sense at all.

    Here are some copies of two web-messages which I had posted earlier this week before the occasioning of your second radio program. They have been somewhat edited from their original form in an effort to try to protect the identity of the person that I had been writing to.

    (1) – …it tends to confirm my opinion that Professor McPherson seems to perform best when he’s also interacting with a woman. It’s for that reason that I tend to view his new radio program where he’s teamed with a male co-host (Mike Sliwa ) as a mistake. I know that I should have to give it more time, but I can only characterize his first radio-program has having been very much off-message for him and at times even border-line awful. Basically I feel that he is very much unfitted by temperament to properly host such a wide ranging program and that he should turn all such duties over to his current co-host least he start suffering from probably not very well thought out over-exposure with the public.

    (2) …I think (a mentioned woman) would make the perfect host and/or co-host for such a program. As (she) …might best know how to draw Guy out so as to touch upon the very most sensitive subjects. …it seemed to me that last Tuesday’s all male program had tended to feature little more emotional depth than what might be expected from a juvenile frat-house bull session …(such as might take place when the adults are away). After hearing that I am quite sure that the Professor should concentrate exclusively on what he knows best and that he should only be a regularly recurring guest ‘on’ and not one of actual hosts ‘of’ such a program, as it is simply wrong that he (or his important message) should seemingly have to share the same stage with anyone else.

    I was then advised by that other person to give your program another try so as to see if it would improve. But, if anything your second program was even worse and after only about 20 minutes I had to turn it off as it was so bad. Indeed, it was awful. Finally, I had to turn it off because I apparently couldn’t stand listening to you publicly make such a damned fool of yourself. Please note that there are indeed certain kinds of conversations that are only best spoken about ‘privately’ and not on-air for the whole world to hear. With that said let me describe some of my other reactions to your latest show.

    First, your program’s title song seemed to set the tone of the entire program in terms of being both overtly crude and juvenile. Might your actually intended target audience be but 14 year old boys? But, what really caused my heart to subsequently sink was when I was informed that YOUR purported program was again going to be utilized as a venue by some decidedly militant sounding Green activists. Next, I am hearing your hardly mature sounding ‘guests’ firing off masses of politically charged bullets and taunts in every conceivable direction – with unfortunately both you and your otherwise useless co-host – from time to time joining in. And, I do say useless because I do not recall hearing your co-host being at all supportive of your own usual message in respect to the world having ALREADY undergone a supposedly irreversible amount of climate-change effects. But, if that be the case, then just why are militant Greens (or eco-terrorists as some would label them) being allowed to appear on YOUR show- if, as you usually say in your own presentations – the world’s goose is already quite cooked and there isn’t a damned thing that any of us might presently do about it?

    Yes, I almost immediately had to stop listening to that second program so as to again wonder just who the f**k you were. Indeed, just how is it possible that during the very same week can you be heard on the web announcing that the methane clathrate-gun has already fired a host of impossible to dodge climate-change bullets at our collective heads, you can also be heard lending credence to the idea that militantly minded alleged Greens should presently be out chopping down power-lines and such?

    Professor McPherson you might indeed be a very naive man, – though perhaps not so naive as myself in respect to my presently writing you this letter. But, I have also had occasion to read a lot of history books and I have learned that many seemingly professional dissenters and activists in this world do also often turn out to be paid provocateurs who would in fact be deliberately intent upon leading others astray in respect to the law. And, you have surely heard something about the law, haven’t you Professor McPherson? Yes, that same law that would have many Green activists being routinely labeled eco-terrorists whenever it should be alleged that they have conspired to commit a crime against property? Yet, you and your co-host, as well as your show’s thus far featured guests, have already been repeatedly heard on the web advocating precisely that? Aren’t you aware that not only does your last two radio shows appear to be of very borderline of legality, but that they have also tended to make a complete mockery of both you and your OWN supposedly already irreversible climate-change message?

    Now, for the present, I would like to continue to give you the benefit of a doubt and suggest that perhaps you had been deceived by some untrustworthy friends or associates in respect to that radio-program. Yes, perhaps even you can sometimes all too easily be made to appear a fool. But, I do suggest that you immediately move to make changes (changes such as could privately convey to you) least your previously established reputation as level-headed scientist should be caused to suffer irreparable harm in the future. Changes such immediately firing your present co-host and/or turning over total control of a subsequently re-named show entirely to him whilst you walk away (or better yet run as fast as you can) from having anything more to with that particular project.

    But, if you should you still persist in wanting to do a radio program then I would advise you to altogether avoid a LIVE call-in type format as you apparently do not have either the necessary resources or production expertise to keep such a show from constantly going off-message.

    So, here’s the deal as I see it, Professor McPherson. I do believe you to be temperamentally unfitted to serve as the actual host of such a program. Rather, I believe that we could both readily name at least a couple of women who would make very fine interviewers or presenters of such a program. And, what I suggest that you and they do is a 15 to 20 minute long previously recorded climate-change report each show with the rest of the program being taken up with a previously recorded interview with some other prominent climate-change scientist and/or dissenter.

    Now, I do understand that the very impressive climate-change lecturer, , Ms. Jennifer Hynes, has already been scheduled to be a guest on your radio-program. And, that does seem to me as if that might also be a perfect time to switch your show over to some entirely new format – because while you may still be a very fine climate-change scientist – I am sorry to have to say that both of your thus far produced radio-programs have in fact really sucked in my estimation. So, I do sincerely hope that you might be able to go about it somewhat differently in the future. Best Wishes, Always, BelleIslander

  • Thank you, artleads. Btw, like your handle.

    In the past year or so, I have spent some time reading about the many peasant rebellions in England as early as 1381 (beginning with the Wat Tyler Revolt) and which continued into the mid-17th Century and perhaps beyond. What I’ve found interesting is that the same wealth inequality that existed in England was transplanted intact to this hemisphere through colonization, and the U.S. Constitution was written in such a manner so that it protected and maintained the wealth inequality (gentry v. peasant) which was present here just as it was in England. As it turns out, the peasants have never won any wars (including the American Revolution). It’s always the elites who win. And they treat everyone else with distain or worse. They take all, and are not above the complete destruction of the natural world for gold. Gold is not even a very useful metal when compared to iron or copper. You can make crowns of it, I suppose. But basically, the living world has been destroyed in the mad search for this lifeless metal, gold (and later, the abstract equivalent – the dollar). What a strange obsession.

  • ROFLMAOPIMP.

    No, I don’t claim to have ownership over the term “Doomer”, though I probably use it more often and in more ways than anybody else in the Doom-o-sphere. I open all my rants with “Greetings Doomfans…”, and I actually titled the conversation I had with Guy recently the “Thrilla in Doomervilla”. LOL.

    I DO have a copyright on “Doomstead Diner” though, which goes back to my Peak Oil days when Flapjax and me collaborated on a few Comic Strips. That is where the name for the Diner came from.

    Far as what to label NBL commenters, I’ve been using “Batters” for this periodically, but SRs “Extinctionistas” is pretty good too. On the Diner, I bounce back and forth between calling the members “Diners” or “Doomers”. Guy is free to pick his own terminology for his readers. As a suggestion, to distinguish from Doomer Diners, “Uber-Doomer Batters” might be better here of course. LOL.

    RE

  • BelleIslander writes: But, what really caused my heart to subsequently sink was when I was informed that YOUR purported program was again going to be utilized as a venue by some decidedly militant sounding Green activists. Next, I am hearing your hardly mature sounding ‘guests’ firing off masses of politically charged bullets and taunts in every conceivable direction – with unfortunately both you and your otherwise useless co-host – from time to time joining in.

    >>>

    Well, I didn’t hear the show yet myself, but I’ve heard Dr. M say that he’s a big fan of Professor Derrick Jensen and his philosophy, and his group Deep Green Resistance. Now, Professor J (I’m not sure if he’s a doctor or not) will be the first to admit that he does advocate the selective use of (how shall I put this delicately?) non-pacifist tactics tactics on occassion to speed up the inevitable end of what Dr. M and he call “Empire”. For example, a brief look on YouTube or Google will uncover a video in which he encourages people in the blowing up of dams. And from everything I have heard from Dr. M, he is all in favor of such tactical non-pacifist tactics.

    Now, of course such actions will no doubt cause what military types euphemistically call “collateral damage”. Professor J has been challenged about that sort of thing. But the truth is that (euphemism once again) you can’t make an omelet without breaking some eggs…and Deep Green Resistance is about nothing if not breaking eggs.

    >>>

    BelleIslander: And, I do say useless because I do not recall hearing your co-host being at all supportive of your own usual message in respect to the world having ALREADY undergone a supposedly irreversible amount of climate-change effects. But, if that be the case, then just why are militant Greens (or eco-terrorists as some would label them) being allowed to appear on YOUR show- if, as you usually say in your own presentations – the world’s goose is already quite cooked and there isn’t a damned thing that any of us might presently do about it?

    >>>

    “I don’t fight fascists because I think I’ll win, I fight fascists because they are fascists” – Chris Hedges.

    I think that MIGHT be Dr. M’s reasoning here…but I certainly don’t want to put words in his mouth. Maybe he’ll weigh in and share his deep thoughts here. I know he does enjoy answering questions.

    Meanwhile, here’s a short clip for all to enjoy as we wait for Dr. M to weigh in:

  • Some folks may spend decades in various practices including meditation, but without seeking purification of the baser natures: they can become highly refined poseurs.

    Others with a brief encounter with the problems and nature of reality, may unwittingly as in various ashuba practices have advanced realisation.

    Extremely few among the prominent doomsayers are realised persons.

    It has been pointed out repeatedly in the Vedic and non-Vedic traditions that even the faintest trace of a sense of achievement or accomplishment is a certain indication of entirely missing the mark.

  • @ Always, BelleIslander

    So many words to say so little and none of it worth saying. Load of concern troll bullshit.
    So, it’s ok to trash the planet and cause extinction of most life on Earth, just so long as we don’t break any laws while doing it. If you don’t like Guy’s radio prog, set up your own, it’s cheap and easy on the internet, pompous buffoon, show everyone how it ought to be done, you can even choose your own damn theme music.

  • @ Robin Datta

    Extremely few among the prominent doomsayers are realised persons.

    How would YOU know ? Wanna name names ?

    …a certain indication of entirely missing the mark.

    What ‘mark’ ?

  • @tiptop

    Very good! Will re-use liberally!

  • http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2014/08/15/pulitzer-prize-winning-writer-of-the-coming-plague-warns-you-are-not-nearly-scared-enough-about-ebola/

    Pulitzer-prize winning writer of The Coming Plague warns, ‘you are not nearly scared enough about Ebola’

    August 2014 – AFRICA – Attention World: You just don’t get it. You think there are magic bullets in some rich country’s freezers that will instantly stop the relentless spread of the Ebola virus in West Africa? You think airport security guards in Los Angeles can look a traveler in the eyes and see infection, blocking that jet passenger’s entry into La-la-land? You believe novelist Dan Brown’s utterly absurd description of a World Health Organization that has a private C5-A military transport jet and disease SWAT team that can swoop into outbreaks, saving the world from contagion? Wake up, fools. What’s going on in West Africa now isn’t Brown’s silly Inferno scenario — it’s Steven Soderberg’s movie Contagion, though without a modicum of its high-tech capacity. Last week, my brilliant Council on Foreign Relations colleague John Campbell, former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria, warned that spread of the virus inside Lagos — which has a population of 22 million — would instantly transform this situation into a worldwide crisis, thanks to the chaos, size, density, and mobility of not only that city but dozens of others in the enormous, oil-rich nation. Add to the Nigerian scenario civil war, national elections, Boko Haram terrorists, and a country-wide doctors’ strike — all of which are real and current — and you have a scenario so overwrought and frightening that I could not have concocted it even when I advised screenwriter Scott Burns on his Contagion script. Inside the United States, politicians, gadflies, and much of the media are focused on wildly experimental drugs and vaccines, and equally wild notions of “keeping the virus out” by barring travelers and “screening at airports.”

    Let’s be clear: Absolutely no drug or vaccine has been proven effective against the Ebola virus in human beings. To date, only one person — Dr. Kent Brantly — has apparently recovered after receiving one of the three prominent putative drugs, and there is no proof that the drug was key to his improvement. None of the potential vaccines has even undergone Phase One safety trials in humans, though at least two are scheduled to enter that stage before December of this year. And Phase One is the swiftest, easiest part of new vaccine trials — the two stages of clinical trials aimed at proving that vaccines actually work will be difficult, if not impossible, to ethically and safely execute. If one of the vaccines is ready to be used in Africa sometime in 2015, the measure will be executed without prior evidence that it can work, which in turn will require massive public education to ensure that people who receive the vaccination do not change their behaviors in ways that might put them in contract with Ebola — because they mistakenly believe they are immune to the virus. We are in for a very long haul with this extremely deadly disease — it has killed more than 50 percent of those laboratory-confirmed infections, and possibly more than 70 percent of the infected populations of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. Nigeria is struggling to ensure that no secondary spread of Ebola comes from one of the people already infected by Liberian traveler Patrick Sawyer — two of whom have died so far. That effort expanded on Wednesday, when Nigerian health authorities announced that a nurse who had treated Sawyer escaped her quarantine confinement in Lagos and traveled to Enugu a city that, as of 2006, has a population of about three million. Though the nurse has not shown symptoms of the disease, the incubation time for infection, which is up to 21 days, hasn’t elapsed.

    Since the Ebola outbreak began in March there have been many reports of isolated cases of the disease in travelers to other countries. None have resulted, so far, in secondary spread, establishing new epidemic focuses of the disease. As I write this, such a case is thought to have occurred Johannesburg, South Africa’s largest city, and another suspected case reportedly died in isolation in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, prompting the kingdom to issue special Ebola warnings for the upcoming hajj. It’s only a matter of time before one of these isolated cases spreads, possibly in a chaotic urban center far larger than the ones in which it is now claiming lives: Conakry, Guinea; Monrovia, Liberia; and Freetown, Sierra Leone. So what does “getting it” mean for understanding what we, as a global community, must now do? First of all, we must appreciate the scale of need on the ground in the three Ebola-plagued nations. While the people may pray for magic bullets, their health providers are not working in Hollywood, but rather in some of the most impoverished places on Earth. Before Ebola, these countries spent less than $100 per year per capita on healthcare. Most Americans spend more than that annually on aspirin and ibuprofen. “It’s like fighting a forest fire: leave behind one burning ember, one case undetected, and the epidemic could re-ignite,” Frieden recently told Congress. “Ending this outbreak will take time, at least three to six months in a best case scenario, but this is very far from a best case scenario. ”At the same congress-ional hearing Dr. Frank Glover, a medical missionary who partners with SIM, a Christian missions organization, and president of SHIELD, a U.S.-based NGO in Africa, warned that Liberia had less than 200 doctors struggling to meet the health needs of 4 million people before the epidemic. “After the outbreak that number went down to about 50 doctors involved in clinical care,” said Glover. I myself have received emails from physicians in these countries, describing the complete collapse of all non-Ebola care, from unassisted deliveries to untended auto accident injuries. People aren’t just dying of the virus, but from every imaginable medical issue a system of care usually faces. –Foreign Policy

  • http://phys.org/news/2014-08-biological-effects-fukushima-insects-animals.html

    Biological effects of Fukushima radiation on plants, insects, and animals

    [concludes]

    A review of genetic and ecological studies for a range of other species at both Chernobyl and Fukushima (Mousseau 2014) revealed significant consequences of radiation. Population censuses of birds, butterflies, and cicadas at Fukushima showed major declines attributable to radiation exposure. Morphological effects, such as aberrant feathers on barn swallows, were also observed. The authors suggest that long-term studies at Chernobyl could predict likely effects in the future at the Fukushima site.

    All of these studies highlight the need for early and ongoing monitoring at sites of accidental radiation release. “Detailed analyses of genetic impacts to natural populations could provide the information needed to predict recovery times for wild communities at Fukushima as well as any sites of future nuclear accidents,” Mousseau said. “There is an urgent need for greater investment in basic scientific research of the wild animals and plants of Fukushima.”

  • @Ses said: “Guy, I wanted to question the reasoning behind your seeming support for Deep Green Resistance. If we are facing NTHE then what can be the justification for the loss of innocent lives (which they admit could happen)as they advocate the use of violence to bring about the end of industrial civilization? Doesn’t this contradict your belief in using the time we have left to treat others with compassion?”

    DGR does not advocate murdering people, they advocate murdering Industrial Civilization, which is murdering every living being on the entire planet.

    But of course too many people are humanists, and your question shows you are also. Humans are NOT the reason to end IC, the living planet is the reason.
    If IC is not ended, not only will all humans perish, but nearly every other living organism as well.
    It’s a matter of priorities

  • I’ve posted a new essay and a few links. It’s here.

  • hello everyone

    I’ve been closely following this blog and comments for years and have never commented until now.

    I operate community radio stations and have made Guy’s interviews the very heart of my weekly community affairs (at this point I air nothing else)

    I naturally aired the first Nature Bats Last radio show last week which I was looking forward to, as this is now the perfect program to carry.

    I rely on the podcast links and haven’t yet heard show # 2, hopefully it will become available at the podcast links before sunday morning..

    Seeing BelleIslander’s comment has caused me to come out of silence and now comment after all this time.

    – in short, I am completely opposite of all those positions – the show is perfect and Mike as co-host is great as well.

    Deep green tactics aren’t for everyone but as with the comments here, diversity of opinion and tactics are what makes this media space so exceptional.

    On the first show, when Guy avoided saying the word fucked, I almost cut in and said it for him – feel free to cuss all you like, I do on-air constantly, so it’s perfect for my community affairs show.

    I didn’t catch the bleeped vs non-bleeped version of the NBL theme song (I would like to obtain a high quality / lossless non-bleeped copy of it if possible) because I normally shorten aired shows by trimming music and non-NTE content to shorten the show to no longer than an hour if possible (the community affairs I’m counter-programming against is 1/2 hour, but an hour is fine – the more overtime the show goes beyond an hour the more aggressively I trim)

    Producing radio shows tends to be more time consuming and more trouble then initially expected and it usually takes a few shows to iron out the wrinkles and get into a rhythm but it then becomes second nature and nearly effortless. I want to encourage Guy and Mike as strongly as possible since the NBL show is exactly what I want to air and it saves me the time & trouble of chasing down youtube videos, downloading, extracting the audio, trimming and converting them for airplay, with segments which may or may not be NTE related..

    The vision of NBL radio is precisely what I want my community affairs to be so it’s a perfect fit as-is.

    PS I especially like kevin moore and ulvfugl’s comments and quote them saying (kevin in particular) is someone I respect.

    Kevin’s struggles and perspective with his local political scene is almost exactly what my experiences here are, except I summit my comments entirely over the air and am much more ‘crude’ and vulgar in my choice of words.

    While ulvfugl’s experiences on-line are very close to the reception I get on the now rare occasion when I comment.

    The IMC comments are about the only venue left where I comment on-line anymore, and even then are basicly just statements with no reply expected – I tell them the conversations here at NBL are lightyears beyond what they have there..

  • .
    “YOU CAN JAIL THE RESISTERS BUT NOT THE RESISTANCE.”
    Posted on February 19, 2014 by Subversive Peacemaker

    Yesterday’s sentencing of Greg, Megan and Michael, the three members of Transform Now Plowshares, was the culmination of the government’s collusion with the Nuclear Industrial Complex. It is collusion in the sense that the government is breaking many laws, including international humanitarian law, in its continuing pursuit of nuclear weapons, and the courts cannot help but see and uphold established precedents, including the Nuremberg Principles. Supposed justice was “blind” to the wrong things in this case, and essentially every other case of this kind.

    There is no lack of irony in the timing of yesterday’s sentencing. Seventy-one years ago on February 18, 1943 Sophie Scholl and other members of The White Rose were arrested at the University of Munich for dropping leaflets protesting the evils of the Third Reich. Click here for an article on this piece of history. Sophie, her brother, and the other members of The White Rose clearly understood the consequences of their actions, should they be caught.
    .
    I see this a lot:

    Public Domain Notice
    Any article on this web site may be reproduced by anyone, in whole or in part, in any manner and for any purpose whatsoever, with no restrictions.

    So, I cut and paste at will.

    From one of the Terminator movies:

    “This is John Connor. If you can hear this, you are The Resistance.”

  • @pat

    I’ve put all the writing on my own web site, along with all my writing on Facebook, in the public domain using exactly that notice. Got the idea from UG Krishanamurti years ago. It’s still considered courteous to credit one’s sources, though.

    I’ve gotten flak in the past from people who felt that my thoughts were similar enough to someone else’s that they couldn’t possibly be original, and bashed me for not crediting someone I’d never even heard of…

  • @ Paul

    I technically couldn’t care less – but, I figured I’d respond so as to hopefully shut the flood gates on the useless comments. It’s not like I’m publishing a work full of stuff I cut and pasted from the internet! I’m posting to an internet blog!

    @ Pauline

    There is no way around the fact that the collapse of IC will mean a lot of people die. The question is can we accelerate the collapse of IC for the sake of Every Living Thing on Earth (except humans).

    The issues are so big that there can be no resolution – no justice, no mercy, no nothing.

    Of course, there really is a solution – but just like the life-boats leaving the Titanic, not everybody gets to go. Strike up the band and pour me another scotch while we sit here together and talk in whispers of what might have been…

  • Excellent and compassionate post and discussion on bipolar.

    https://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/08/13/1321379/-Robin-Williams-When-a-Suicide-is-a-Cause-to-Celebrate-Courage

    Every few years I need to re-read and refresh on the definitions and differences among these medical problems, so I don’t squash stuff together as I did in the post above. I’m not a professional at this, just an observer with a few anecdotal “close” experiences.

    What do we suppose the behavior of millions will be like as they begin to hear of an “epidemic” of mass starvations around the world?

    I think of the examples of exponential growth, as in algae on a pond doubling its coverage every few days, until there is little or no clear space left.

    Removing yourself from the personal stress you might experience in hearing of individual cases, because, if you are a “news junkie” like me, you will not have time to read and absorb all that is going on.

    As a curiosity, I wonder how many readers at NBL are urban dwellers vs. rural, and how that affects your/our perspectives? Beyond reporting your own location, I wonder if you’d estimate a total of the others, based on your impressions in reading here.

  • me, urban denver, co.

    my perspective is i’m trapped, cannot escape.

  • WATCH DOG ALERT! If it looks like a honey-pot, and it smells like a honey-pot, then it probably is a honey-pot. DEEP GREEN RESISTANCE is so obviously irrational in the face of what’s already said to be the occasioning of finally irreversible climate-change effects, that one can surely only conclude that’s it’s a Black-Ops operation. And, that before it’s all over a lot of unwary persons are probably going to be swept up and burned. Which of course does it for me. After listening to those two programs I am now forced to revise my formerly high estimation of Professors McPherson’s judgement to something less than whale-shit because what he’s both doing and saying no longer seems to actually add up. With that being the case, I must announce that Natural Bats Lasts is no longer a site which I would care to be publicly associated with. So, you vicious attack dogs that perpetually try to protect this site from those anyone who would question or who will not toe your party-line, spare your efforts because I am already quite gone from here. I am now going to go and take a very long bath and maybe entertain the hope that the stench of the all too obvious honey-pot operation which has been set up here shall not subsequently cling to me.

    Still, there be a lot of persons who regularly post here that I have come to really admire, so please take case. And, I really do wish you the very best of luck in respect to your own future.

  • @ Belleislander

    Oh no ! Please don’t go, we’ll all miss you soooooo much….. hahahahaha
    Mind you don’t drown yourself in your bath.

  • The word “flounce” comes to mind… 😉

  • @BelleIslander Says: I am now forced to revise my formerly high estimation of Professors McPherson’s judgement to something less than whale-shit because what he’s both doing and saying no longer seems to actually add up.

    It’s pretty straightforward, actually.

    On the one hand, Dr M says we have very little time left, and there is nothing we can do to avoid near term extinction. Therefore we should be extra kind and loving to one another, so we ease the pain of our final days as a species and as individuals.

    On the other hand, Dr M, along with Professor J, encourage folks to do whatever they can to bring down industrial civilization, using violence as a legitimate tactic to do so – blowing up dams, and so forth.

    To those who object that innocent lives will be lost during such actions, Dr M would respond (as his friend and videographer Pauline did) that such concerns reveal you to be a humanist, which, of course, is actually a bad thing.

    So the idea is, love everyone and treat them gently – except when you have to maim and/or kill them for the sake of some sort of greater good.

    The technical term for this thinking is HOSPICE.

    I hope that helps!

  • @BelleIslander

    the FUD distraction / arm waving / red herring performance about Derrick isn’t the main issue, it’s how you tried every trick in the book to discourage the new NBL radio show by attacking every aspect of it other than the data presented – the ‘ol attack the messenger routine..

    and what you’ve characterized as ‘vicious attack dogs’ is also more hyperbole / arm waving.

    -it would be great to actually contribute something positive in spreading the data by say citing the sources, compiling the links, connecting the dots and even presenting your own take on the subject, via podcast or even – gasp – community broadcasting. Speak the written data personally, produce a better show, etc.

    people who’s daily lives include media production can use support & encouragement, a good word, a kind observation, submitted material, prepared segments, bitcast capture and hosting – any number of ways can be found to help out, even just producing a competing show that demonstrates how you think it should be done.

    ..it would provide more programming to air, more podcasts to listen to, more people to turn on, with a wider circle of interested parties to present.

  • I’m fumbling in the dark.

  • @BelleIslander
    People who care intensely about the living planet may feel they want to sacrifice other aspects in pursuit of what they think is right. I could be thinking of something else I read or listened to, but believe it was even mentioned in the show that violence perpetrated by the state or by corporations is normalized, while violent acts by citizens or individuals contrary to the state or corporations are blown up (no pun intended) out of all proportion. So it’s valid for cops to shoot unarmed suspects but any kind of resistance to police control, by talking back, running away, or merely being too deaf or ill to hear orders, can earn a summary execution. The building of a dam and dislocation and killing of people and other creatures in that process is not generally seen as violence, is it? …although such construction projects do also take many human lives (Hoover Dam: 112 deaths as a matter of course in pursuing that ‘greater good’).

    I understand the value of non-violence, but I think you’re engaging in a bit of pearl-clutching here. It’s wise to be paranoid, but I doubt that mere NBL commenters are going to be targeted. Please don’t waste too much water on those showers.. At any rate, everyone is personally responsible for their words and actions, and it is not upon Guy’s head what other people are keen to do.

    Resistance can take on other forms, anyway. Merely by extracting yourself, however slowly, from prevailing systems, you are removing support for them and giving them less power over you. Eg., if you can get out of debt, you are beyond the power of the banks; if you can source your own water, you don’t have to scream to the city to give it to you, etc. There is also an internal path that Paul Chefurka has referenced in his piece about “Climbing the Ladder of Awareness”: http://www.paulchefurka.ca/

    @ed has a few wry and pithy digs, but his comments are overshadowed by insinuations (Pauline ≠ Guy). I’m not sure who professor J is, Derrick Jensen? Please don’t conflate Guy with him, either. I would rather hear each person speak for him/herself. Don’t be muddying the waters. If you are worried about messages and reputations, it is important to be clear and precise.

  • EtyerePetyere, That was a very fine video. In the face of our present day NTE trials, what would the Buddha do? Would he spend his last days in this world trying to blow-up power-plants? Or, might he instead choose to retreat up some hill so as to quietly think? I do believe that everyone already knows what the Buddha would do. But, how about us?

  • @ BelleIslander

    I do believe that everyone already knows what the Buddha would do.

    So, you are not just a pompous concern troll, fool, coward, but also a conceited, opinionated idiot as well, eh.

    You think there is AGREEMENT amongst buddhists about buddhism ? You ignorant man, there’s just as much argument and discord as there is about Christianity, and seeing as the fucking Buddha has been dead for 2,500 years nobody can ask him his opinion to settle the arguments, can they, and seeing as there is no references in the scriptures to science, or climate change, or industrial civilisation, or mass extinction events they are not much help, really.

    The whole buddhist story gets broken by NTE, as do the stories of all the other spiritual traditions. Except perhaps for the stories of an ultimate apocalypse.

    If any of the spiritual traditions had been adequate, then we would not be in this mess, would we.

    Anyway what happened to your idiotic

    WATCH DOG ALERT! If it looks like a honey-pot, and it smells like a honey-pot, then it probably is a honey-pot. DEEP GREEN RESISTANCE is so obviously irrational in the face of what’s already said to be the occasioning of finally irreversible climate-change effects, that one can surely only conclude that’s it’s a Black-Ops operation. And, that before it’s all over a lot of unwary persons are probably going to be swept up and burned. Which of course does it for me. After listening to those two programs I am now forced to revise my formerly high estimation of Professors McPherson’s judgement to something less than whale-shit because what he’s both doing and saying no longer seems to actually add up. With that being the case, I must announce that Natural Bats Lasts is no longer a site which I would care to be publicly associated with. So, you vicious attack dogs that perpetually try to protect this site from those anyone who would question or who will not toe your party-line, spare your efforts because I am already quite gone from here. I am now going to go and take a very long bath and maybe entertain the hope that the stench of the all too obvious honey-pot operation which has been set up here shall not subsequently cling to me.

    You have decided you do want to be publicly associated with this site after all ?

    Well, for a start, if that’s the case, I think you need to offer an apology, don’t you, after that slanderous muck slinging. Because I for one, am not going to let you get away with such stupid remarks here.

  • @BellesIslander’s harsh critique of two wonderful, radio neophytes leads me to wonder when she may have run her radio show, and if so, was she paid for it and how many months/years it ran? And does she have any constructive advice?
    Aside from her personal tastes (who the hell doesn’t like the Nature Bats Last song?).

    Mike Sliwa and Guy McPherson are not experienced in this field and have taken on a challenge that most people would balk at. Indeed, Guy balked frequently when Mike suggested doing this show. It takes a great deal of courage to do something like this, something one is unfamiliar with, and something that renders a person completely vulnerable to the whims of thoughtless critiques.
    Slamming them with unconstructive criticism doesn’t help them and it renders the criticism impotent even IF there was some substance of value to it!
    For example I’ll never forget my uncle’s backhanded compliment when I was 13 and had just finished singing a song I’d written: “You’re ugly, but you sing really well!”

    This is a huge learning curve for Guy and Mike, and the show will only get better with time. They need our support and encouragement, rather than mean, thoughtless barbs.

    Going live on the airwaves is terrifying enough, let alone doing it without much if any training. I know. My first degree was in Radio and TV production and I ran a weekend morning show at my college, spinning New Wave records. Scary, exciting, adrenaline provoking experience. And I wasn’t depending on a sketchy internet!

    I might add that Mike and Guy are doing this for FREE, and they do most of their work for free. Gift economy and all that.
    I might also add that there is a DONATION BUTTON at the top of this page and if you find this website even remotely valuable, folks here could once in a while drop a tip in there to show your love and gratitude. These men are not wealthy men and they do not have regular jobs or regular incomes. I consider them heroes. I thank them for their courage to reach out this way to us all.

    I especially thank Guy for the sacrifice he makes everyday to put himself on the frontlines to educate us and expose the constant barrage of lies spewed by TPTB and by other scientists who are PAID by TPTB to keep their mouths shut.

    That courage is priceless and extremely rare in our fucked up world.
    We should support it in any way we can.

  • @Ed, said: “the idea is, love everyone and treat them gently – except when you have to maim and/or kill them for the sake of some sort of greater good.
    The technical term for this thinking is HOSPICE.”

    “Some sort of greater good”? Does this insinuate that you are unaware of what the greater good is? Are you completely oblivious of your place on this planet? How did you even find this website with such poor sense of direction and poor sense of place?

    Let me just make sure that I get this right. You think that: Extracting oneself from empire, destroying Tar Sands pipelines, blockading logging roads, sitting in trees, refusing to join the military industrial complex, sourcing one’s own food and water and shelter, etc, etc, etc, is only for the sake of “some sort of greater good”? Some unknowable, mysterious, albeit “greater good,” which you see as an “idea,” as you say, that you then translate into “Hospice”?

    Have you ever been to Hospice? Had a loved one die in your arms from cancer?
    Or how about this, have you ever watched TPTB destroy an entire ecosystem in your backyard and dismiss your right to protect it?
    Or have you ever watched your government murder millions of people and poison their country with depleted uranium and you have been powerless to stop it?
    Or have you ever watched the planet go to ruin as fossil fuel Monsters like Hillary Clinton tromp around the globe promoting hydrofracking?
    No?
    You never noticed any of that? Let me guess. You weren’t there that day.

    E, You should go back to whatever planet you came from, cuz this one is being destroyed by Corporate Fascists. I know, I know, I know, they do it for “some greater good” I’m sure…

  • ‘takes a great deal of courage’

    I open the mic and let it fly and don’t even consider myself a DJ

    ‘completely vulnerable to the whims of thoughtless critiques’

    this is where the personal satisfaction part comes in, when you’re doing it strictly for your own internal reasons, it doesn’t matter what other people say

    ‘Going live on the airwaves is terrifying enough, let alone doing it without much if any training. I know. My first degree was in Radio and TV production and I ran a weekend morning show at my college, spinning New Wave records. Scary, exciting, adrenaline provoking experience.’

    I started at the high school station, but over the years since then it’s nothing special at all to me – think of it as testing a bug, just a high power bug with a range of several miles. Concentrate your attention on how few people may be listening rather than how many.

    this is similar to the advice for people who are scared of heights to not look down..

    practice just recording, over & over again, take after take, where you know for sure no one’s listening, then choose the best of the takes and piece together what you want to say, then air it.

    This is my preferred production method – I usually add a mild chorus effect, some bass boost due to the noise cancelling mic’s thin bottom end, and notch out any whines or tones plus maybe some noise reduction while I’m at it.

  • Greatly appreciate what Guy McPherson is doing, including on his new radio show with Mike Sliwa.

    Of course I realize guests are involved now, and Guy McPherson himself asked for reactions to BelleIslander’s comment. This is a general reaction, my general reaction, but not specific to that comment. Rather to issues around it. A line of thought that started long before that. We know NTHE can be very ugly. In fact, we are sure there is almost no chance it can be anything but ugly. This is a sobering thought. So, because of that, I can’t praise enough Dr. McPherson’s emphasis on what he calls living a life of excellence, as a “reaction” or suggested action. We might be able to bring a drop of beauty into this, to maintain a bit of beauty, by giving the best of ourselves. By remembering who we were, who we are. Dignity. Or maybe by seeking models. Socrates for some. The Buddha for others. “Don’t just do something, sit there,” is something I think I heard Dr. McPherson say. I’m with him on that. All the way. Courage will be needed. Let’s see what we are made of. Or let’s see what support we can give each other in order to be able to maintain some of our dignity. This is our challenge as I see it.

  • One question I wanted to ask and forgot: what do the initials RE stand for?

  • Response to Belleslander

  • Still: A guy from Doomstead Diner goes by RE for: Rogue Economist, Reverse Engineer, Ralph Emerson, Roger Ebert, Retrograde Existentialist, Renewable Energy

    No matter the name, it’s the same salesman.

  • @ulvfugl, said:
    “…seeing as there is no references in the scriptures to science, or climate change, or industrial civilisation, or mass extinction events they are not much help, really.”

    I came across this while reading the book of Revelation to see if the plagues and natural disasters mentioned could be the results of human caused global warming:
    “And the nations were enraged, and Thy wrath came, and the time came for the dead to be judged, and the time to give their reward to Thy bond-servants the prophets and to the saints and to those who fear Thy name, the small and the great, and to destroy those who destroy the earth.” Revelation 11:18

  • @ Ses

    Yes, I know about that, it opens up lots of fascinating avenues we could talk about, too many to discuss here, I’d be happy to explore the topic on the Forum if you want to start a thread, if that’s not too daunting.

  • Tom, that was “historical data”, not “hysterical data”.

    As is often the case, someone here completely misrepresents my position. It isn’t hopium to simply examine the evidence. There isn’t much evidence of huge ongoing methane emissions, when they don’t actually show up at measuring stations.

    I won’t be surprised when tshtf in the coming years, I’ve been expecting that for some time. Please don’t assume that because I like my projections to be evidence based that I see no evidence for collapse, because I do; there is plenty of evidence that limits are being hit all over.

    You refer to an article in the Arctic-News blog as being “reality”, but you won’t find much useful information there. Every time some data point (or set of points) seem to point to an imminent catastrophe, Sam Carana, whoever he or she is, leaps on it and posts a long article about how we’re all doomed unless we subscribe to his plan (on another Carana blog). A recent one about a blip in the Barrow methane data is an example, where the data did last very long before being corrected (just like the Malcolm Light data points a few years back). In the particular article you mention, Carana has a graphic that purports to show the effect of hypothetical methane bursts but exaggerates the picture by using CO2 yearly emissions on the left and then cumulative CO2 equivalent methane burps on the right. I suspect that it wouldn’t be as alarming if the CO2 emissions were shown cumulatively. I also recall a post that even Paul Beckwith disowned when Carana took two methane data points out of context (the latter was a re-estimate of the former, not actual data measurements over time) and then drew an arbitrary exponential line through them. Complete rubbish. However, if you prefer to get your information from such sources, I can see that you’ll be poorly informed.

    Catastrophe is coming. Of that I have no doubt. But that can be seen by sticking to the facts, rather than making the facts up.