Finding True North

by td0s at Pray for Calamity

One of the great dangers of the life indoors, is the anesthetizing effect it has on a person. When we aren’t out in the world, we aren’t present to watch the dying. Attempting to talk about this via an electronic medium, even via the written word at all, is near futile because it requires the symbolic recreation of the tragedy unfolding around us, and the recreation will never carry the weight or the pain of the real thing.

So it comes down to data points. In essays past and in daily editorials available across the electronic press, we are fed the data points. Topsoil loss, species die off, the toxicity of the oceans, the acceleration of climate change; I can rattle off the data, but who cares? We are inside. Climate controlled. Masters of hundreds of energy slaves all whipped up to provide us with on demand entertainment, comfort, and snack food. We think we are safe inside our house, but the house is an illusion. There is no indoor, outdoor dichotomy. There is a temporary delusion blinding us to the reality of the storm bearing down.

In my previous essay I wrote that we must burn down the collective house that is civilization. We must demolish it thoroughly before the floors buckle and the roof caves in, despite the very real dependence we have developed upon this edifice. A conundrum indeed, but this conundrum is itself the question of our time, and it calls to all of us whether we are ready to square off with its implications or not.

Industrial civilization is destroying the living skin of the planet. Industrial civilization is rendering life on Earth impossible. This is inarguable. The only question then, is what to do. Where do our responsibilities lie, and how can we meet them with dignity, grace, and courage?

What do you value? What do you value the most in this world as you experience it? I think it is imperative that we start with this question because the answer will determine how we perceive our responsibilities as living beings. I refer to this as finding one’s polestar; their true north. Finding our pole star is essential because it is very easy to get entangled in the complexity of our culture, our socialization, our class status, and all of the other baggage we carry from lifetime after lifetime of trauma inflicted by the dominant culture. When we need reorientation, we come about to our true north, and keep from running wayward into the noise and distraction intentionally laid to ensnare the passionate.

My pole star is the healthy, fecund forest. I live in a wooded region, and when I look out my front door I see tree covered ravines. Beech, hickory, oak, maple, all stand stoically about me, their leaves blanketing and feeding the soil. I never feel so honest, so at home, so centered as when I stand in the deep blue dark of night, jacketed in the electric stillness of winter, staring up to the stars that peek through the tangled black fingers of the naked tree boughs. In those moments I feel whole, because I feel like part of a whole. My ancestors call to me from the past as they most certainly stood in the same pose of supplication, lost in wonder, and gratitude, and mystery.

This is where I go when I seek an ethical thread to follow through the spiritual and psychological quagmire of modern industrial civilization. When I look at the activities of humans, I ask what they mean for the forests. Not just my forest home, but for the forest homes of people and beings across the Earth. I ask if new technologies, or policies, or commercial activities will benefit these havens of life and solitude, or if they threaten them. I imagine the creeks and rivers that run through this region like blood in my veins, and usually the answer comes back to me that, no, the grand schemes of civilized man offer nothing good. They seek only to take, never to give back. They promise to dominate and ruin, and that is what they do.

When concrete is laid over what was once a field so that suburbanites can park their vehicles at a new strip of retail stores, the deep roots of plants do not surrender. Look to any patch of asphalt and you will find the rebellion under way. Grass, dock, wild onion, dandelion; they slowly crack and push through the rubble and road surface above them until they find their place in the sunlight once again. When under attack, these plants merely do what they must do to go about the business of living.

What fascinates me is that when hundreds or thousands of enraged people burn down the corporate chain stores that encircle them like army wagons on the frontier, these rioters are condemned. Spokespeople for the status quo feign innocent stupidity and ask, “Why are they burning down their own communities?” as if the concrete that is laid over the poor and working class is somehow their kin. Setting police cruisers and corporate chain stores alight is merely what these people must do to go about the business of living, whether this is consciously perceived or not.

The hierarchy of power that exists in this social paradigm attempts to mystify the public with language of togetherness when it suits them. They speak down to the lower orders as if we are one unit, one family, one tribe, each of us working together for the equal betterment of all. The actions of the powerful betray the truth, that those lower on the social hierarchy will labor, toil, suffer, and die for the comfort, power, and privilege of those at the top.

This is the framework by which responsibility is discussed within our society. If a man robs a store and is sent to prison for it, it is said that he is there to “pay his debt to society.” There are several implications in this statement surrounding the notion that this man was ever part of society to begin with, or that he desires to remain so. Of course, if he was robbing a store to pay his rent, keep the heat on, or feed his family, there will never be statements from the powerful to the effect that society failed this man, this valuable member of our collective, and forced him through circumstance to his act. Society will never pay its debt to this man, or to any man of his social rank. The idea that we are all daily electing to be in one cooperative social structure together is a pure fabrication.

As so often happens, officers of the state apparatus commit egregious violence, whether as police or soldiers, and their personal responsibility is almost never called into question. The only time an individual police officer or soldier is made to fall on their sword, is when their crime is so blatant, so heinous, and so public, that to not punish them would crack the façade of the entire control apparatus. By and large, these officers of the state do violence as a mode of day to day operations, all for the acquisition and maintenance of wealth and power as it exists and is distributed.

However, any actions deemed antagonistic to the structure of power and wealth will be vociferously condemned, and the perpetrators will be held liable for all knock on effects of these actions. For instance, if in an attempt to preserve the health and sanctity of one’s home, a person destroys the power sub station that operates the pumps for a tar sand pipeline that runs under their land, and this outage causes a cascade black out to follow suit, the state will likely hold responsible this person for any deaths or injuries that occur due to the lack of electricity that has resulted. If an old woman on a hospital respirator dies, the person who knocked out the sub station will likely be charged with manslaughter, if not murder. They will be called a terrorist. Anyone whose ideologies are even remotely similar to this person’s will also be labeled a terrorist, worthy of suspicion.

In short, this is the Law. People speak of the Law in moralistic terms, as if the volumes of clumsy codes and commands cobbled together by and for the wealthy were gifted to us by a choir of angels designed on building for us a just and balanced world. Of course, the Law is nothing of the sort. The Law has nothing to do with morals or ethics, as the bulk of the weight of the laws as they exist purpose to extort and exploit the poor for the powerful. Leaning on the law as an ethical or moral litmus is such a high form of laziness and ignorance as to be shameful.

This is the wall that encircles those of us who wish to see an end to the current order of power. We will be held to the highest account for the slightest ill that comes from any of our deeds, and the Law will be invoked in punishing even the most tepid of social activists. Meanwhile, an Airforce technician in a bunker will kill families thousands of miles away with hellfire missiles, and we will never know this person’s name. They will never be condemned for the deaths they directly and intentionally cause. In fact, they will be heralded and rewarded. Their efforts furthered the efforts of the machine of industrial civilization. They are on the team. Doctors designed torture programs for the CIA. Scientists design weaponized viruses. Capitalists pour heavy metals into rivers and continue cutting boreal forest to extract tar sand despite the globally acknowledged threat of climate catastrophe.

These people are all protected. Even attempting to slow them down in their work is a crime. The truth laid bare is that they have a sanctioned right to bring death, and you have no right to try to prevent them, whether violently or not.

It’s not about who you kill, it’s about who you kill for.

The police are on standby in any event, ready to gleefully dole out violence to even the most passive demonstrator. Any flinch, parry, or brush of a hand that can be deemed an attack on the police, of course, will result in charges, possibly felonies. The guardians of power too, are a protected class, so much so that in some places even passively ignoring police is classed as a felony.

The message is clear. This world doesn’t belong to us, but to them. We are a society in name only. Language about unity and country are pap for the masses. Those who don’t swallow it down get the club, or the bullet. But don’t worry, the comments section is still open. Feel free to air your frustrations beneath the article. Hashtag, give-up-already.

In the cold night air my breath is visible. Darkness comes early as we approach the solstice. When I scan over the ridge, I feel a peace in the center of my being. There are those who think this is all that is left. They say that we have already lost the big fights, and now all that remains is to hold close to those you love as the dying picks up speed, and the maniacs in power continue throttling forward.

I cannot help but feel that such placid thoughts, wherever they may be rooted, are an appeasement to the powerful. My blog wouldn’t be named “Pray for Calamity” if I didn’t believe that things would get worse before they got better. But I also know that without question I would die for my family and for our home, and thinking this opens me to the idea that there are so many great places and causes to die for on this planet at this time. Perhaps its time to stop seeing this as an age of impending calamity, but instead to see it as an age of opportunity to banish our fears, cage our egos, and to remember that death comes for us all, and that the greatest shame would be to waste our flesh when there are so many perfect targets for our rage. Perhaps we should begin to recognize this as an age of awakening; a time to reignite an internal fire that an oppressive and abusive culture has devoted so much energy to snuffing out.

So I ask, what is your pole star? What is your true north? What do you know in the center of your being to be good, and right, and true? The dominant culture attempts to bend the mind and break the heart, until all that is left is the fetishization of power. Domesticated, isolated, institutionalized, traumatized people begin to believe that their responsibilities are to the dominant system of buying, selling, killing, producing, and ever increasing efficiency at all of them.

I submit that these are not my responsibilities, and they are not yours. I submit that none of the language they weaponize and fire so readily at dissenting voices is applicable. We are not malcontents, radicals, insurgents, or terrorists. We are dandelions who do not wish to bend to the will of the concrete poured over us.

And when we are ready to remember all of this, we are warriors.

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Nature Bats Last has its own YouTube channel, separate from McPherson’s channel. It’s here.

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Mike will be going solo next week. He’ll include an interview with Forrest Palmer.

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McPherson’s latest book is co-authored by Carolyn Baker. Extinction Dialogs: How to Live with Death in Mind is available.

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Going Dark is available from the publisher here, from Amazon here, from Amazon on Kindle here, from Barnes & Noble on Nook here, and as a Google e-book here. Going Dark was reviewed by Carolyn Baker at Speaking Truth to Power, Anne Pyterek at Blue Bus Books, and by more than three dozen readers at Amazon.

Comments 101

  • EXCELLENT article.

    “As so often happens, officers of the state apparatus commit egregious violence, whether as police or soldiers, and their personal responsibility is almost never called into question. The only time an individual police officer or soldier is made to fall on their sword, is when their crime is so blatant, so heinous, and so public, that to not punish them would crack the façade of the entire control apparatus.”

    Actually, their crime against Eric Garner (NYPD) on July 17, 2014 appears blatant and heinous, but no cop in that copgang attack on an unarmed man with his hands up, has been held accountable. In a nutshell, for those who did not view the video, this guy was allegedly selling individual cigarettes w/o paying the tax, on the sidewalk. Cop-thugs approach and surround him, wrestle him to the sidewalk, then cop-thug Daniel Pantaleo proceeds to choke him to death. Period. End of Eric Garner.

    There is a distinct and definite evolution of law enforcement going on in the good ol’ U.S.A., and in viewing the video of Eric Garner’s murder, I would ask, what is the difference between what happened to him and what happens on the streets of major cities when the killers are not wearing badges or uniforms?

    Yeah, we’re in for a rough ride in more ways than one. Of course for about 500 years in this country, it has been routine to harass and even kill people of color, especially Black and Red, but the difference today is that law enforcement has become so blatant in their actions, it is as if they are PROUD to be murdering and getting away with it.

  • Casting off shackles includes all shackles, even those of purported freedom, the “true north” not excepted, and in the end casting off the “casting off”.

    The Self of all selves, the No-self, the Void (Sunyata), the Boundless Void (Ain Sof), is realised when the last and even perhaps the subtlest trace of attachment (both attraction and aversion) are cast off. Or transmuted into non-binding preferences.

  • “The only time an individual police officer or soldier is made to fall on their sword, is when their crime is so blatant, so heinous, and so public, that to not punish them would crack the façade of the entire control apparatus.”

    This statement is no longer true! We exist in a full blown police state. There is nothing left to do but wait for the climate to burn our asses for good. Can’t come soon enuf for me. That way everyone suffers.

  • A handful of soil. I scoop it from the remains of our frost-killed garden. Is this the earth that will abide?

    I have loved it in the springtime, setting out seeds and watching them grow into the vegetables I will bring to our table. I have loved the smell of rain nourishing our tiny harvest.

    Sometimes seeds long buried will rise to the top and beneath the sun, open into unfamiliar weeds.

    Perhaps that will happen in some far future.. our solar system will find stability and out of the remaining layers of topsoil the earth will once again turn green…

  • Yes, all of the above, though the situation is far worse than described in the essay.

    It has been evident for quite a while that the maniacs in power will not change direction and will push entire communities, entire countries and the entire planet ‘off the cliff’. And the war they are engaged in against nature, against the rest of humanity and against their own progeny will continue to be couched in terms of progress, usually described as ‘sustainable development’.

    I cycled on Christmas Day; there were few cars on the roads (though many were parked outside individual houses). I cycled on Boxing Day. There were traffic jams in town because the retail sector had been closed for a day, and most people’s lives are so empty they attempt to fill the void with food and stuff.

    I noticed several places where the fairly-recently-sealed road surface was breaking up (yet again). Sadly, the big drop in oil prices will facilitate cheaper road construction and repair and more consumerism in the short term.

    Never mind, the maniacs in control of the western world (and especially in control in the US) are ramping up their efforts to get World War Three underway. Major international military conflict will change things a bit.

  • ~
    Excellent, eloquent, heartfelt essay, Td0s! Thank you… and thanks to Guy for reposting here.
    “The anesthetizing effect of a life lived indoors”, so true, just look at the vast majority of americans…
    In trying to figure out where ‘we’ went so very badly wrong, I’ve always wondered whether maybe it was when we stopped sleeping under the stars.

    There are other directions one can take, (reference to The Virgin Terry’s comment previous). My heart goes out to you, tvt. But once you reach that certain point of release, at least do something soul empowering, inspiring those of us who remain behind, before you go.
    Like for instance:
    •Harbor a fugitive.
    •Fuck shit up.
    •Conspire.
    •Show your love.
    •Resist.
    •Risk your life or your freedom for all that you hold dear.
    Or support those who do:
    http://earthfirstjournal.org/eco-prisoner-list/

  • check

  • oky smarties, i just figured out how i fuck up 2-1
    congrats on makinge up with x

    check out severeanxiety767 in comments
    http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/professors_plead_with_greens_to_accept_nuclear_power_20141226

    Mass Extinction vs. Nuclear Power and Green Energy

    ALL U NEED TO KNOW IS HERE!!!
    http://www.reddit.com/r/Permaculture/comments/2qdpuf/mass_extinction_vs_green_energy/
    WHY THIS IS SERIOUS
    ► 97% of Tigers gone since 1914.
    ► 90% of Lions gone since 1993.
    ► 90% of Sea Turtles gone since 1980.
    ► 90% of Monarch Butterflies gone since 1995.
    ► 90% of Big Ocean Fish gone since 1950.
    ► 80% of Western Gorillas gone since 1955.
    ► 75% of River & Riverbank Species gone since 1970.
    .. ► 75,000 dams block U.S. rivers built over 75 years.
    ► 60% of Forest Elephants gone since 1970.
    ► 50% of Great Barrier Reef gone since 1985.
    ► 50% of Human Sperm Counts gone since 1950.
    ► 50% of Fresh Water Fish gone since 1987.
    ► 40% of Giraffes gone since 2000.
    ► 30% of Marine Birds gone since 1995.
    ► 28% of Land Animals gone since 1970.
    ► 28% of All Marine Animals gone since 1970.
    ► 93 Elephants killed every single day.
    ► 2-3 Rhinos killed every single day.
    ► Bees die from malnutrition lacking bio-diverse pollen sources.
    ► Malnutrition weakens bee colonies for disease and poisoning.
    ► China is building 400 nuclear plants in 35 yrs @ 1Gw each without asking u.
    ► India announced a commercial Thorium reactor by 2022, but why?
    ► Our hi-tech green energy produces radioactive thorium waste all the time.

  • Even i.If you’re not into wreaking havoc or harboring fugitives (NTTAWWT,N)…you might at least support your local live artists.

  • Small Axe, Joe Higgs:

  • Dr. McPherson,

    Here is a video that may contribute to the importance of your timely message. I have watched most of your video presentations. You always explain so clearly the science so lay people can easily understand.

    We are such a visual culture, I thought a brief (picture) video in regards to the seriousness and inevitability of irreversible, catastrophic Methane release in the Artic would speak ten thousand words to the audience. Unfortunately, so many who sit and listen to you still believe in the old-last-big-college-try efforts will help or even save our planet, which as you explain so well, is running a terminal fever.

    I greatly appreciate your efforts to get the truth out to a disbelieving, dismissive, and lied to world, especially here in USA.

    I saw this video on Articnews blog and it even have one of the most pre-eminent scientific voices on the issue of climate warming and disruption, Dr. James Hansen. I use to greatly respect his work and initial warning of climate warming and disruption until I started noticing that some science information I was reading was not matching his message of we can change climate change. Oh well, everyone has to choose what they will accept and believe. But pass personal acceptance and belief, the earth and the earth’s weather system will show doubters, liars, spin-masters, and falsifiers what is the actual and irreversible truth.

    TRUTH AND LOVE IS ALL WE HAVE LEFT.
    GOD HELP US ALL.

  • Here’s an example of an uncompromising individual doing what they loved.
    He then took his own life in defiance of a federal prison sentence.
    I had the honor once of sampling some his burning and excellent elixir that was flavored with local sweet birch bark.
    RIP Popcorn Sutton, somewhere on Thunder Road:

  • td0s,

    Well written essay! I agree, empathize, and to some extent sympathize, with much that you wrote here (about the first 4/5 of it). I empathize with your anger, your rage, and your strong desire to express these, to direct your anger and rage at SOMEONE, some enemy “out there” in order to avoid feeling helpless and, instead, feel more powerful and in control at least to some degree. (Meanwhile, this serves pretty much the key value in the human supremacist philosophy that our culture deeply programmed within us: to feel powerful through control. And serves as a biologically programmed survival response). I also have some observations and questions, which you or some others might respond to:

    You wrote: “There are those who think this is all that is left. They say that we have already lost the big fights, and now all that remains is to hold close to those you love as the dying picks up speed, and the maniacs in power continue throttling forward. I cannot help but feel that such placid thoughts, wherever they may be rooted, are an appeasement to the powerful.” Do these “placid thoughts” really serve as “an appeasement to the powerful”, as you wrote, or more as a deep acceptance of the near certainty of the self-annihilation trap that we have constructed for ourselves and most other life on Earth, the final “stage” of a grieving process?

    You wrote: “My blog wouldn’t be named ‘Pray for Calamity’ if I didn’t believe that things would get worse before they got better.” Of COURSE things will get worse! Worse in horrific ways that few humans alive today have ever experienced or can even imagine. Meanwhile, unlike past collapses in human history, this time around things almost certainly will NOT get better over the long term for us!

    You wrote: “But I also know that without question I would die for my family and for our home, and thinking this opens me to the idea that there are so many great places and causes to die for on this planet at this time.” Herein lies a major self-contradiction in your reasoning and article, I think: On one hand you write that you would die for your family and for your home (and you presumably understand that most other people would do the same), and yet you advocate for PROACTIVELY KILLING THEM BY PROACTIVELY DESTROYING THE MANY COMPLEX, HIGH-ENERGY SYSTEMS THAT KEEP YOU AND THEM ALIVE. This amounts to reasoning, just as so many people do, that it remains morally and practically okay to kill non-human animals by destroying their habitat, but NOT by shooting them. Can you resolve this contradiction and clarify your reasoning here? How do you resolve the contradiction that, on one hand, it does not make moral or practical sense for us to shoot our friends, children, and ourselves, but on the other hand it does, supposedly, make moral and practical sense for us proactively to destroy our “habitat”: the high-energy systems that we now physically depend on for our survival?

    You wrote: “Perhaps we should begin to recognize this as an age of awakening; a time to reignite an internal fire that an oppressive and abusive culture has devoted so much energy to snuffing out.” And proactively kill our friends, children, and ourselves by destroying the systems that keep us alive? Might it not make much better sense to educate ourselves and each other about how human population growth has served as the fundamentally destructive process throughout our entire history as a species, and then to CONTROL OUR HUMAN POPULATION within the various living communities that support us? (In suggesting this, I realize that we no longer have time for this, but my point involves asking if that agenda does not make much better, more consistent sense both morally and practically.)

    You wrote: “So I ask, what is your pole star? What is your true north? What do you know in the center of your being to be good, and right, and true?” You seem to suggest that you hold proactively killing close to seven billion people as your pole star. Of COURSE few of us would kill our children, grandchildren, friends, and ourselves in any DIRECT, VISIBLE WAY. Perhaps in non-consciously recognizing the unacceptable nature of such direct and visible mass killing you advocate the same process that makes capitalism so highly effective: Let’s INDIRECTLY kill OTHER PEOPLE, indirectly kill THEIR families, and friends. (This kind of extremely common thinking illustrates an important principle that Daniel Kahneman emphasizes in Thinking, Fast and Slow: If we do not see something happening around us, then it does not exist and we have no moral culpability, or: “Only What You See Exists (OWYSE)”.)

    Finally, you wrote: “And when we are ready to remember all of this, we are warriors.” What, exactly, do you suggest that we do as these “warriors”? Proactively begin the process of killing our children, grandchildren, friends, and ourselves by destroying the communication, transportation, agricultural, and other systems that keep all of us alive? You suggest this course toward death as quickly and directly as possible in a culture in which death remains THE major, number one, taboo subject?

    While I agree that we need to end industrial civilization, including cities, ASAP in order to maximize the probability of the greatest number of species surviving the rapidly unfolding global heating with its abrupt climate change, and the ecological, and nuclear collapse bottle neck (and a very high probability exists that it WILL soon end), I doubt that many rational people will proactively and horrifically kill their friends, their families, and themselves by destroying the food and energy systems that the greatest percentage of us now depend on daily for our lives. Furthermore, it seems certain that our friends and families will protect themselves in whatever ways they can from the consequences of your agenda, including any level of violence that they consider necessary against you, just as humans have throughout all of our evolutionary history. If you and others wish passionately to work and fight toward this end of bringing down industrial civilization ASAP, as needed and as will soon happen anyway with or without your efforts, I definitely DO applaud your efforts. I just don’t foresee any significant percentage of humans proactively killing the people who have created and supported our self-annihilation trap: our families, our friends, and OURSELVES. Our passionately controlling our population makes much more moral and practical sense to me as a pole star than advocating for our killing ourselves does in our death-taboo society.

  • I say keep IC running for as long as *humanly possible*! I have no problem with sacrificing all life on earth, right down to the very last virus, if that would guarantee the total destruction of the human race. Even if this universe would become a lifeless hole for the remainder of its existence, it would be totally worth it to eliminate the slaughterhouse I call the collective mind of man.

  • All the Deep Thoughts
    about the Deep Shit
    we’re in are a distraction.
    Why not instead
    dwell upon the rising and
    the setting of the sun
    endlessly
    as if we
    could think of a way
    to stop it.

  • Even if this universe would become a lifeless hole for the remainder of its existence, it would be totally worth it to eliminate the slaughterhouse I call the collective mind of man.

    ahem. sorry, the rest of us have something to say about that idea. 🙂

    we kinda like our universe, thanks.

    and besides…

  • Garner was not selling cigarettes on the sidewalk. He was suspected of selling loose, single cigarettes ~in the past~. New York excise tax is $4.35 per pack, meaning that Garner was allegedly guilty of depriving the state of less than .22 cents tax per cigarette.

    “Revolution is not a dinner party” – Mao Tse-Tung

    How do you expect people to live outside the grid? Well, gosh. You could go to the mountains of Laos or upcountry Cambodia and see people doing it just fine. Today. Now. Every day. Not some wierded off scary time in the future apocalypse. In fact they have been doing it like that for years. Even decades, if not centuries or millenia.
    Hell, you could drive out to Pine Ridge and see how the indigenous do it year in and year out – even in their government sanctioned holding pens out there. Most on less than a few thousand a year.

    These things I have seen with me own eye balls.

    But yeah. By the standards of the people I came up with, to a person, those folks would rather be dead, buried and kill the whole planet with them rather than forced to live for 15 minutes like poor Khmers or Lao.

    And yes, your house, your grid, your family, your society, your planet-annihilating imperial culture still sits squarely on stolen indigenous land. Pretending it is a viable society, with family-like relations and not something entirely different if not wholly pathological isn’t going to do much of any good.

    Cheers and good riddance to 2014.

  • td0s

    I especially enjoyed the metaphor of weeds pushing up through the paving being warriors.

    But it’s not exactly a metaphor for me. The weeds really *are* warriors, and we can chose to be on their side. Looking at it this way, we won’t seem quite so helpless.

    I halfway take Bud’s point as well. But not only won’t we want to bring our industrial lifeboat to an abrupt halt, we will quickly be killed if we seriously attempt to do it.

    Meanwhile, the everyday world is a mystery. I understand very little about it, although I may be alone in this. Dredd provided an interesting link about the trance that governs how we behave. Anger is entirely useless against that. Surprising and jogging ourselves out of it (and replacing it with a more appropriate trance) seems more to the point.

    Pat has lately been posting that it is possible to safeguard all nuclear facilities. Maybe he’s right. Stewing around in a dysfunctional trance–promoting hyper individualism, hyper materialism, hierarchy, etc.–is not something we *have* to keep doing (although we might).

    Pat’s recommendation to sleep on the ground drink from the river, and eat what falls off the trees…well, I don’t know about that. But if we could find a way to treat nature almost as gently as that implies, that could be more realistic, whatever means (civilizational or not) it takes to get there.

  • mo flo

    Thanks for the Sinatra. My guy. So, even on the beach of doom, popular American culture can help. 🙂

    A little Fosse and a little Loesser (sp):

  • artleads –

    my pleasure. 🙂 Sinatra can help with just about anything. the secretary number was hilarious! so well done. thank you for that.

    Dean has something to say, too…

    dancing in the empty warehouse room of gloom, just beyond the dunes hugged by the ocean beach of doom, can be ever so poignant.

  • Wow! What dancing!!!!! Brilliant, the whole thing!

  • Robin
    Thanks so much for that link.

    Others may find these links helpful:

    ‘Review of “The Globalisation Of Addiction: A Study In Poverty Of The Spirit” by Bruce K. Alexander’

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2717062/

    Alexander BK. ‘The Roots of Addiction in Free Market Society’. 2001.
    http://www.cfdp.ca/roots.pdf

    There is a convergence here between the work of Alexander and his researched Scientific assertions on a broad definition of ‘Addiction’ and spiritual/psychological understanding of Ego is Addiction to the Effects of the Body-mind, as distinct from The Abiding in Reality of Conscious Being, that is free from that tendency, which is intrinsic to some forms of Traditional Hinduism, and the Present Time Unique 7th Stage Realisation of Adi Da Samraj.

    When you look at the evidence, do the required reading, and see the convergence, I am left wondering which one read the other….but regardless, I feel they are expressing the same understanding about what is meant by the phrase:

    “The Ego is not a Psychological Structure, it is an Present Activity, of immature Adaptation and subsequent emotional recoil from Reality.”

    Ego is an illusion of self.

    That could be how we got here, living so disposed, terrified, so completely.

    Be Calm, deeply, and all will flow.

    😉

  • “The Ego is not a Psychological Structure”

    If by “ego” the reference is to the ahankara (the “”I”-maker”, it is vey much a “vritti” (a modification of the mind, as a ripple on the surface of water, a psychological structure) that is referred to by Patanjali when he describes Yoga as “yogas chitta vritti nirodha”, a concept also found in Buddhism, a non-theistic tradition as is Yoga.

  • Invictus

    I’m pieces of atoms which flit
    As chemical actions permit;
    I’m not, as some state,
    In control of my fate—
    I ain’t the captain of shit.

  • Ben: HAAAA-HAAAAA! THAT’S GREAT!!

  • YAY, BEN!

  • At Fractal Planet today Scott Johnson wrote “The affair over at Nature Bats Last is eyeroll-worthy. I had a real laugh over friend-of-the-blog Bud Nye’s demand that I release my tax returns, though.” Entirely typical of him while I commented at FP, he misrepresented what I wrote, as others also have. I WROTE:

    “I do not presume to know whether you actually receive financial support for your anti-McPherson blogging, but given the highly emotional, strongly biased nature of what I see at FP, it seems not just plausible, but highly probable that you do indeed receive significant funding. Given the things you write and the things you encourage and support others to write, you MIGHT AS WELL receive that funding. Have you considered approaching some of the right people and requesting funding? Given your strong support of their disinformation campaign, you might as well get paid for it.”

    And later:

    “Now that I have become aware, I will definitely contribute to him [Guy], so thanks for educating me! Now, how about you post your most recent income tax return as a similar, balanced reflection of your character, in order to prove that you do not receive industry funding as you insist that you do not?”

    When I wrote this, I did not FEEL or INTEND any kind of DEMAND, and I doubt that many, if any, readers interpreted is as any kind of demand, but instead a suggestion, possibility, or request. Yet he characterizes my words as a “demand” that I supposedly made.

    I wonder: If SJ cannot (or perhaps more correctly, will not) accurately represent something as simple as my comments regarding his income—and in my experience this kind of emotion-eliciting misrepresentation remains quite common behavior on his part—why would anyone trust him to represent as accurately as possible vastly more complex writing and evidence that may contradict his preferred beliefs about how the world presumably works related to global heating with its associated abrupt climate change? Indeed, he banned me from commenting at FP because I persistently emphasized that the world does NOT work according to his naïve Baconian, Cartesian, Newtonian views of natural science, which he insists do accurately portray how Earth’s complex biosphere works. To quote him in response to one of my earliest comments at FP: “It’s all just physics, after all”, if I recall his wording correctly. In this comment, he referred quite clearly to Cartesian/ Newtonian physics.

  • Thanks Tom and Kirk! ☺

    And (belated) thanks Colin! ☺

  • Benjammin’ the Donkey gets it. The body-mind complex is an insentient meat-robot following an unpredictable trajectory in a system too complex for prediction.

    The witnessing sentience conflates witnessing with acting and experiencing, reifying both. Yet as long as this reifying dream (nightmare?) continues, Action, its Reward & Punishment, can be invoked as “karma”. And as long as one has the slightest and/or subtlest attachment (attraction or aversion) to anything in the dream, the show will go on. Preferences being non-binding, are ever excepted.

  • yes, BtD gets it. one one level, this is all unarguable.

    b… b… bbbb… but.

    there is no WAY that it can be broken down into the neat analysis that you offer, Robin – and just left that way.

    I see exactly what you are getting at, but it can’t be left at that. not even in words.

    The body-mind complex

    there isn’t any such “thing.” this can only be taken as some kind of analytical unit – making the classic simplification for one level of understanding, but losing the more important truth in the process.

    the “body-mind complex” is better thought of as a tool, than a meat-robot. the user of that tool is not a meat-robot. so the tool becomes an extension of the intent of the user. in this process, the “robot” is animated to the point where it is essentially, and actually, as “alive” as the user’s intent.

    now, the question then becomes “who is the user?” and that is where the truth of the picture is more apparent. the “user” exists on several levels at once, beyond the level of where the tool itself exists. ultimately, though, there is only One user. but the various levels between tool and One are not robots. they shade between a scale of “pure tool” and “pure One.” more on this in a bit…

    insentient

    nothing, absolutely nothing here, can be considered insentient. it is all living and aware. again, it is the living process of “a user” – and the user’s sentience imbues everything here. it is also not insentient in the sense of being a kind of “projection” or “hologram” either.

    an unpredictable trajectory in a system too complex for prediction.

    this is factually incorrect. as totally chaotic and unpredictable as all of this appears to us, it is ultimately totally predicable. scarily so – and I am not talking about simple mechanics or physics. it is done – finished – every last possible quantum variation. totally known.

    where, then, does the intent of “the user” and the completely done aspect of the entire experience come together? why have intent if there is nothing to intend? no choice, no outcome that can be desired other than the outcome that is already totally determined?

    strictly for the entertainment value. that is it. we get to pretend, on the deepest conceivable level, on a level that is utterly REAL, that there is something “to do” here, because the REAL itself desires the experience of free will. it is the *only* possible way “something” that has complete omniscience and omnipotence – for all possible “time” and any possible “extent” in any possible conception whatsoever – can actually LIVE. the omnipotent One creates all levels of “us” because it wants to be alive – we are the living heart, breath, arms and legs of that. this is where the “meat-robot-tool” idea finally breaks down.

    The witnessing sentience

    there is no witnessing sentience separate from what is witnessed. ever.

    conflates witnessing with acting and experiencing

    the is no experiencer separate from experienced. ever. they are truly One. every object of my experience is me looking back and experiencing me. it is a perfectly indivisible loop, and I am only standing on one place on the loop – at one moment, however long that moment may feel. I can let go and move to any other place in the loop – if I dare, and if I can stand the experience. but it is always possible.

    Yet as long as this reifying dream (nightmare?) continues

    the One is neither having a dream, or living a nightmare. it is just busy being every infinite possibility it can BE. that is quite a lot. will it ever end? no. is it already over? yes.

    Action, its Reward & Punishment, can be invoked as “karma”.

    forget about karma. it is only as long as any part of the One finds any part of the game interesting. once that part is fully experienced, it moves on. not until that point.

    And as long as one has the slightest and/or subtlest attachment (attraction or aversion) to anything in the dream, the show will go on.

    the show is wrapped. the show hasn’t even begun! and yes, paradox really is inescapable.

    Preferences being non-binding, are ever excepted.

    there is nothing here, but what the One prefers.

  • Robin Datta,

    You wrote: “The body-mind complex is an insentient meat-robot following an unpredictable trajectory in a system too complex for prediction.”

    If you investigate the work of John Gottman—and Principia Amoris, The New Science Of Love (2015) serves as an excellent, up to date introduction—you will find that on the contrary: love relationships between two people, including heterosexuals, gays and lesbians, have MUCH RELIABLE predictability. Gottman: “We scientists can now PREDICT the future of love relationships, and we now also UNDERSTAND that prediction. Our news is even better than that. Not only can we predict and understand love, but now at close to a 75% success rate we can also help couples: (1) prevent love relationship disasters, (2) recognize the signs of a promising relationship, and (3) recognize the signs of a doomed relationship.”

    Because of the high predictability and understanding, their success rate will probably increase over time. Meanwhile, I think a high probability exists that many of the principles that John Gottman, Susan Johnson, and others have developed related to couples also apply to most other relationships and this accounts for much of my interest in their work.

  • I am getting a non stop stream of issues in posting on NBL.

    This is a Test Post to see what occurs when I am not signed in on the site.

    RE

  • OK, signed on now, and that post went up. I suspect this one will as well.

    First thing I recommend is for anyone who posts regularly here is to REGISTER. You probably will have better success getting your comments posted if you have an ID on the Database.

    If you get pitchouts, it’s probably because the IP where you post from does not make a good connection to the database. We can;t do anything about that problem.

    RE

  • “Theory witnessing sentience conflates witnessing with acting and experiencing, reifying both. Yet as long as this reifying dream (nightmare?) continues, Action, its Reward & Punishment, can be invoked as “karma”. And as long as one has the slightest and/or subtlest attachment (attraction or aversion) to anything in the dream, the show will go on. ”

    (Except) it is seen that the life (show) itself IS the realisation of self- a GIFT- of unspeakable beauty from oneself to oneself. In the absence of existential fearfulness ordinary life is seen to be what “I” have always wanted.

  • I’ve been reading you guys for a month or so. You are mostly very smart (smarter than me). But, sometimes my eyes glaze over when reading your stuff because to me some of it sounds like intellectual bullshit.

    Near term extinction is an idea I am open to.

  • I have to say that in terms of the overall numbers of typical posters, this forum has the greatest number of people who (claim to) have figured it all out. 🙂

    I think the universe we inhabit is nondeterministic, and if there is a god, it is also throwing a dice (this is what the evidence from experiments quantum mechanics indicates, among other things). But I don’t believe there is a god. That is a belief.

    Sentience I think is a determination (really a judgement) that is best made by the complex system that is said to possess it. And who I am to judge someone else’s ability to sentient? That is my opinion.

  • I listened to Radio Ecoshock for years, since the beginning. I cringe every time I see the download link now. I can’t fathom how uncle Alex could have put in years of work on this and when it comes to connecting the dots all the way, he balks and goes for the slime job. Completely off. After the hit job, he goes back now to sounding all but *exactly* like he did 8 years ago: “Will we find a way to change?…What about your future in a hotter climate?…” yada yada. No, we won’t no matter how many times “dubious” is thrown in by Mr. Johnson. And the grandkids are in for a major roasting dude. Just like you spelled out in excruciating detail week after week, month after month, year after year. Pah….I can’t even listen to the guy any more. I’m cringing now just thinking about it.

    Ditto the Collapse of Industrial Civilization – except for 9/11 – which happened just like Zelikow and Bush said it did. Yeah, and my brother communes with UFO life forms on Neptune.

    And after Trayvon Martin was sixed last year, James Kunstler comes out with a straight up hard-core bigoted “Black people need to get with the program”. {Cringe} What program is that, buddy? The incinerate the planet program – as long as white people upstate get a few extra lovely days on stolen Iroquois land? Whatever.

    So much is just absolutely unpalatable any more.

  • The “I” considering the “not-I” will maintain status quo.

    “so the tool becomes an extension of the intent of the user.”

    There is no user and no intent.

    “there is no witnessing sentience separate from what is witnessed. ever.”

    The discernment of the seer from the seen

    “ultimately totally predicable”

    Ultimately. See BTD’s take on the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam.

    “love relationships between two people”

    There are no “two” in non-dualism.

    “(Except) it is seen that the life (show) itself IS the realisation of self- a GIFT- of unspeakable beauty from oneself to oneself.”

    The Void that is the Plenitude has no one and nothing to gift.

    “people who (claim to) have figured it all out”

    From it speech returns not having reached it, and the intellect likewise – Taittiriya upanishad.

  • Bud,

    Perhaps you could post your tax return as a gesture of example? It might pave the way.

    In any case, I find the notion that Johnson might be paid, to counter the position of Guy’s, to be laughable, for the following reasons. Firstly, it would be a poor return on investment. Having just had a quick browse of Johnson’s blog, he seems to have only one article on the subject. He has only posted one comment here and, other than that, has given one interview about the subject (as far as I know), on a relatively obscure channel. Secondly, Guy doesn’t appear to be having a significant influence on public policy with his views. And doesn’t appear to have convinced many people of the impending extinction. Why would anyone provide “significant funding” to counter a view that is gaining such little traction? Climate change denial gets significant funding (for obvious reasons) but an anti-Guy campaign? I very much doubt it.

  • CBS poll question (12-28-2014): Are you optimistic for 2015?

    87% YES!
    13% no

    Not really surprising with the can do, religious, military and racist spirit most peasants and leaders enjoy, and worship.

  • All a great mind trip going on here, with words desperately trying- no straining to express the ineffable with words posted on a electronic cave wall. No better than shadows of course, but meritorious efforts none the less.

    Going back to the topic of this thread– finding your North Star. Where to go to escape groupmind and ego and reconnect with is- ness, directly? Physically, a forest is a good start. Get outside and get immersed in the raw-ness of the natural world without the trappings of group-mind created plastic-dom. Meditate there without words. Just listen, feel, smell, touch– hell, taste a leaf or twig or dirt! Literally go out of your mind. Stay until you have gone out if your mind. Then you’ll find wholeness beyond words. A wholeness that is the North Star. You realize that NTE is another concept. Another shadow on the cave wall. It may be looming ahead very near or not as a reality, but it matters not one iota. All is exactly as it should be.

  • WARNING: Self-delusion runs deep.

    The “truth shall make you free” ONLY from the LIE.

    Reality (still and always) bats last.

    If Reality (the Truth) is something unpleasant and undesirable, that will not change.

    ACCEPTANCE, like DENIAL, does not change Reality, it only changes how we see the Universe and our relationship to it.

    If it is the case that the Universe is such that the innocent suffer unjustly, we’ll still be living in an evil and unjust Universe, regardless of how much we accept (or deny) that fact.

    Our only option is to act according to our awareness of Reality, to the extent that we have the opportunity.

    “And in the end,” it truly might just be the case, that “the love (the justice) you get is (only) equal to the love (justice) you make.”

    You are what you do. What you do is your life.
    A just life is it own reward.
    Evil (injustice, causing suffering) is its own punishment, because by doing evil, you make your own life and yourself evil.
    No “god” necessary or there to let you off the hook.

  • CBS didn’t ask me, but:

    I am optimistic that I will see that human event that occurs in the seeming unfolding of linear time known as New Year’s Day 2015.

    I am confident rather than optimistic that I will be around for most, if not all of the planet’s cycle around our sun that most of the worlds population will define as 2015.

    I am confident rather than optimistic that I will continue to witness the most interesting phase of my specie’s relatively brief (in comparison to most of the other forms of life to have been brought into existence here) interval of activity on the cosmic gestative event we call the earth.

    Think I will go have a wee dram, laugh, weep, and marvel.

    Mac in Minn

  • @td0s

    “We are dandelions who do not wish to bend to the will of the concrete being poured over us”

    Dandelions: beautiful flowers and beautiful leaves, not weeds… just so many of them all over the world (rather like humans) but unlike them,not destructive in large numbers. They are fantastic survivors and VERY good to eat. Also powerful medicine (which is in the eating).

    I love this wonderful metaphor for the unbending spirit. You’ve chosen well there. I’m always touched by plant metaphors. Thanks for using it.
    Your essay is wonderfully evocative. I didn’t have a chance to read it until now but I’m glad I did.

    Thanks Guy, for posting it here.

  • Robin –

    from your no user and no intent link, and I have bolded the stuff that is supporting what I am saying above:

    “A devotee always thinks that God does everything and that he is an instrument in the hands of God. He thinks that he is only Nimitta; this is his Bhava. By entertaining this Bhava, he gives up the idea of agency and enjoyment and thus frees himself from the bonds of Karma. He rests in perfect, unalloyed peace by developing this Bhava. He says when anything happens, whether desirable or undesirable, “God is everything. God does everything for my own good. God is just. Thy Will be done. All is Thine. I am Thine, my Lord.” By the practice of this Bhava, he is always happy, under all circumstances and conditions of life.

    The Bhavas of a Bhakta and a Vedantin differ. The Vedantin entertains Sakshi and Akarta Bhavas. The Bhakta entertains Nimitta Bhava. The Vedantin develops Brahma Bhava. The Bhakta develops Dasya Bhava. The Vedantin identifies himself with Brahman. The Bhakta entertains the Bhava of duality. He worships and adores. Eventually, through Para Bhakti, the Bhakta also gets Jnana and attains the same state which a Jnani attains. The modes of Sadhana and the Bhavas differ in them in the beginning. They meet on the same platform ultimately.

    A rich man and a Pandit have the Bhava of arrogance and superiority. A real Sannyasin has the Bhava of equality and oneness, and the Bhava of love. Bhava differs in different persons, according to nature and quality. In worldly parlance, the relationship of father and son, husband and wife, master and servant, friend and friend, brother and sister, etc., is meant to develop the various degrees of Prema and to extend this Prema to God by purifying the lower emotion into higher sublime divine emotion. That is the aim and object. The lower human Bhava is transmuted into higher divine Bhava. Worldly relationship and Bhava is preliminary training for the development of divine Bhava. Do not forget this point.”

    so, we have various ideas about “being an instrument in the hands of God” and/or “equality and oneness” and we also have the “aim and object” – which is exactly the idea of intent. transmutation. and so on.

    “training” – as mentioned. it is never finished, until one is permanently reunited with One. and that experience exists on the other side of the coin. the “ultimate view perspective” – the only completely REAL and true perspective that is available. anything here talking about that perspective is not actually being or seeing from that perspective, and hence is always working from some level of delusion.

    “The Bhavas of a Bhakta and a Vedantin differ.” and I don’t really care too much about that. I am personally not married to any specific code or practice. I change things and try things, as I see fit, and as it is fun and productive to do so. the “stuff I work with” doesn’t seem to be married to any particular way of doing things, so why should I be?

    Ram –

    there is nothing here to claim, only constantly changing and moving experience – and this further above is all just one of my chosen “codes of living” in that experience. one set of created game rules. it is only one of countless ways of living my experience. I am free to chose different codes, anytime, and work with them. 🙂

  • Tony insists:

    “Secondly, Guy doesn’t appear to be having a significant influence on public policy with his views. And doesn’t appear to have convinced many people of the impending extinction.”

    Dahr Jamail is actually one of the most influential journalists around regarding the climate crisis. He is quite convinced that Guy has worthwhile things to say. Once again, just as you did in the other topic, distorting what Shahkova said (as i proved), you are at your distortion and disinformation efforts again. Personally, i’m done with you.

  • Wester.

    Spot on.

    Alex Jones was kind of interesting a decade ago if you could abide the peak oil denial and the climate catastrophe denial. Then he became intolerable.

    Kunstler was kind of interesting till he went into political denial (supported Obama’s Orwellian ‘hope and change’) and kept harping on about urban renewal and rebuilding railways. Tedious now, unless you are looking for witty use of language.

    Collapse of Industrial Civilisation was good until Mike Lee went straight into denial/censorship mode the moment I challenged the nonsense he believed (believes) regarding 9/11. I no longer waste any time there.

    Even the Independent UK and Guardian have largely gone down the drain, though I still look at them briefly for updates of news and trends, and to keep abreast of what kind bollocks is generally being presented to the masses.

    I personally feel as though I am living in a time-warp world, in which the bulk of society is stuck, incapable of personal or intellectual growth, so I get further and further ahead of the crowd.

    The really interesting thing is that every metric I observe and every credible analysis I read indicates the financial-economic-social ‘shitstorm’ is going to arrive some time between 6 months from now and 18 months from now. The environmental catastrophe promoted by ‘the system’ just continues to get worse by the minute, of course.

    If you want to see some really scary numbers, go here.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population

  • kevin moore Says:
    December 28th, 2014 at 12:49 pm
    Wester.

    Spot on.

    Alex Jones was kind of interesting a decade ago if you could abide the peak oil denial and the climate catastrophe denial. Then he became intolerable.

    Kunstler was kind of interesting till he went into political denial (supported Obama’s Orwellian ‘hope and change’) and kept harping on about urban renewal and rebuilding railways. Tedious now, unless you are looking for witty use of language.

    Collapse of Industrial Civilisation was good until Mike Lee went straight into denial/censorship mode the moment I challenged the nonsense he believed (believes) regarding 9/11. I no longer waste any time there.

    Even the Independent UK and Guardian have largely gone down the drain, though I still look at them briefly for updates of news and trends, and to keep abreast of what kind bollocks is generally being presented to the masses.

    I personally feel as though I am living in a time-warp world, in which the bulk of society is stuck, incapable of personal or intellectual growth, so I get further and further ahead of the crowd.

    The really interesting thing is that every metric I observe and every credible analysis I read indicates the financial-economic-social ‘shitstorm’ is going to arrive some time between 6 months from now and 18 months from now. The environmental catastrophe promoted by ‘the system’ just continues to get worse by the minute, of course.”

    Not challenging you, Kevin, just wondering what credible analyses and metrics you base your 6 month to 18 month timeline upon. After 40 some years of seeing a shit storm as being imminent, i’ve quit trying to put timelines upon the current goings-on. I’m amazed things haven’t come apart yet, and suspect a big part of that is that the vast majority of the population, especially in the US and industrialized world, would be willing to do just about anything, including major acts of self-sacrifice, to keep this excuse for a society going, because people have no idea of what else to do. The last few days i’ve spent lots of time with people i work with on environmental projects, and it’s amazing how some of them drink Kool Aid such as “electric cars” with a relish.

    Totally agree with you re Alex Jones, Kunstler, Mike Lee, UK Independent and UK Guardian.

  • For those who requested something a little less metaphysical/philosophical…

    Dr. Jeff Masters, Top Ten Weather Stories of 2014
    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2884

    1: Earth Likely Had Its Warmest Year on Record 1: Earth Likely Had Its Warmest Year on Record

    2: Monsoon Floods in the India-Pakistan Border Region Kill 648

    3: India’s Cyclone Hudhud Does $11 Billion in Damage

    4: Southeastern Brazil’s Worst Drought in 50 Years

    5: The California Drought

    6: Landslide in Afghanistan Kills up to 2,700

    7: Super Typhoon Rammasun Kills 206 in China

    8: “Polar Vortex” Cold Hits Eastern U.S.

    9: A Hyperactive 2014 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

    10: A Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season

  • Tony,

    In your December 28th, 2014 at 2:15 am comment you wrote: “Bud, Perhaps you could post your tax return as a gesture of example? It might pave the way.” I would have no problem at all in posting my tax return, if my quite modest social security income had any relevance to this conversation. But it doesn’t. I do not argue in support of industrial, corporate capitalism’s interests, as Scott does.

    You wrote: “In any case, I find the notion that Johnson might be paid, to counter the position of Guy’s, to be laughable, for the following reasons….” I have never suggested that SJ might get paid to counter Guy McPherson’s evidence and interpretation of it, and I don’t know of anyone who has suggested that. (This serves only as a confusing, distracting, straw man suggestion.) On the other hand, though I do not presume to know I HAVE suggested the quite plausible possibility that Scott Johnson gets paid TO SUPPORT INDUSTRIAL CORPORATE CAPITALIST INTERESTS, to help with THEIR billion dollar disinformation machine, which you acknowledge exists. I HAVE suggested that if SJ does not get paid by them, he might as well, because he does quite a good job of supporting them and the denialist wishful thinking that they generate with their extremely well-funded propaganda, AKA “advertising”, whether he gets paid for it or not. Look through the comments at Fractal Planet and note the number of people who thank Scott, sometimes quite emotionally, for supporting their wishful, denialist thinking, for the “service” he provides in reducing their anxiety.

  • Jeff S

    The kinds of things I have been following which indicate ‘severe problems’ before the end of 2016 are:

    Japan’s saving rate has recently gone negative for the first time since records began (in 1955).

    Historically low interest rates have failed to generate economic growth in the western world (other than the phony growth associated with increased expenditure on education and healthcare etc.,) and after decades of rampant econo0mic growth, China has dropped interest rates to stimulate growth.

    Indeed, China imposed a tariff on Australian coal a few weeks ago – sure sign China doesn’t want Australian coal.

    The US staged a financial attack on Russia, which failed; this leaves only the ‘military solution’.

    In the district I live in the major sources of income -dairying and oil- have taken massive hits, both down 40 to 50% at the moment, and no reason to indicate any significant change.

    Two district councillor (out of 14) have resigned in disgust. The mayor, Andrew Judd, has zero credibility amongst that sector of the community that can think, and not much more than zero amongst the sector that cannot think. When you have a system which is blatantly corrupt and is grossly inefficient and ineffective, it cannot survive for long. And the four major boondoggles in the district that have created the impression the system has a future are all due for completion in 2015. Then what?

    I recently spoke with my brother, who lives ion England; he mentioned that the road surfaces are breaking up in Hampshire but because there is ‘no money’ temporary patch-ups are being done.

    The most recent Keiser Report focuses on gold, the manipulation of gold, repatriation of gold, rigged interest rates etc.

    The collapse in oil prices is starting to cause cancellation of capital expenditure and job losses, and when the energy ‘junk bond’ market starts to respond to missing cash flows things will start to get very interesting.

    Something very big is brewing.

  • Kevin Moore,

    The bigger the better. I’m tired of this shit!!!! ’bout time the bastards suffered with all the rest of the planet.

  • When will the final shitstorm commence in urn-est?
    Always a good question.
    Many say the big one’s already begun.
    They may be right.

    My carefully casual analysis says we’re somewhere between The Clash’s “London Calling” and here…

  • Evidence for a rapid release of 3,000 gigatons of carbon (GtC) of carbon at the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum

    http://thingsbreak.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/evidence-for-a-rapid-release-of-carbon-at-the-paleocene-eocene-thermal-maximum.pdf

    Calcium carbonate and carbon isotope records from the rhythmically bedded Marlboro Clay, deposited during the onset of the PETM CIE, show that an estimated 3,000 gigatons of isotopically light carbon was instantaneous released.

  • Dear MMM

    THANKS for this link pertaining to the predicament that our climate system is in. I did not know about this site, even though I have heard his name, Jeff Masters.

    It seems to me that the first three categories on his top ten list is probably the most important events because the catastrophic storms that will undoubtedly increase is directly related to the ongoing heat records being broken. And the thing is: THIS IS ONLY THE BEGINNING.
    THE HEAT RECORDS ARE GOING TO BE UNIMAGINABLE IN THE FUTURE.

    THE CRUX OF THE MATTER IS THAT IT IS SO IMPORTANT THAT THE TRUTH IS TOLD. MY ONLY PRAYER AND WISH IS THAT THE PEOPLE OF AMERICA WOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE TRUTH WITH BALANCE THOUGHT AND BALANCE THINKING.

    SO, THIS PLACE IS HELPFUL AND DR. MCPHERSON’S WORK IS IMMEASURABLY HELPFUL FOR ALL WHO ARE WILLING TO LISTEN AND VALUE TRUTH.

    THANKS FOR ALL THE RELEVANT LINKS.

  • “It is not pleasant to contemplate the thoughts
    that must be passing through the mind of the
    Owl of Minerva as the dusk falls
    and she undertakes the task of interpreting
    the era of human civilization,
    which may now be approaching its inglorious end….

    …One index of human impact is the extinction of species,
    now estimated to be at about the same rate as it was 65 million years ago when an asteroid hit the Earth.
    That is the presumed cause for the ending of the age of the dinosaurs, which opened the way for small mammals to proliferate, and ultimately modern humans.
    Today, it is humans who are the asteroid,
    condemning much of life to extinction.”
    Noam Chomsky
    full article:
    http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2014/12/noam-chomsky-on-end-of-history.html

    Broken glass and bloodshot eyes,
    Razor blades on every word:

  • Bud,

    You previously wrote (quoting yourself in the comment I linked to):

    I do not presume to know whether you actually receive financial support for your anti-McPherson blogging, but given the highly emotional, strongly biased nature of what I see at FP, it seems not just plausible, but highly probable that you [Johnson] do indeed receive significant funding.

    Perhaps there is a possible thread of meaning whereby you are not suggesting Johnson receives funding to counter Guy’s views but the juxtaposition of “financial support for your Anti-McPherson blogging” and “highly probable that you do indeed receive significant funding” implies that you are accusing Johnson of the thing that you say you haven’t accused him of.

    Regarding your tax return, well, why not post it as a gesture, as I said? It’s up to you and I don’t mind if you don’t but suggesting Johnson post his to disprove your accusation is not really sensible.

    Jeff,

    Try listening to all parts of that interview that Shakhova gave to Nick Breeze. She mentions several times that they don’t have enough data for them to have a detailed understanding of Arctic methane dynamics. I’m not making things up. Listen for yourself. She’s concerned (or whatever other word you want to use) but recognizes that the data is sparse and would dearly like more research to be done so that a more complete data set can be built up.

  • Tony,

    You wrote: “Perhaps there is a possible thread of meaning whereby you are not suggesting Johnson receives funding to counter Guy’s views but the juxtaposition of ‘financial support for your Anti-McPherson blogging’ and ‘highly probable that you do indeed receive significant funding’ implies that you are accusing Johnson of the thing that you say you haven’t accused him of.” Okay. I can see how you could easily take a meaning quite different from that which I intended. I acknowledge that I did not write very clearly about this thus producing confusion. In my comment I did not sufficiently separate the “anti-McPherson blogging” aspect, which the thread’s title “How Guy McPherson gets it wrong” obviously focuses attention on in a biased way, from the plausible possibility that Scott Johnson gets paid to support industrial corporate interests helping their billion dollar disinformation machine, which would serve as a much more likely motive for payment than just attacking McPherson, which I meant to point to. Thanks for your clarifying comments.

  • http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-82411461/

    State’s drought having pronounced effect on wildlife

    Starving baby squirrels in parts of Northern California are so hungry that they are jumping out of their nests to search for food and getting lost on the way home.

    The increase in suddenly motherless squirrels is just one example of how the state’s prolonged drought has affected wildlife, experts say.

    This year, the Gold Country Wildlife Rescue in Loomis has been swamped with orphaned squirrels. The nonprofit volunteer organization saw the number of baby squirrels it took in rise from 1,800 in 2013 to more than 2,200 this year, spokeswoman Jackie Nott said.

    “If the drought continues, we expect next year to be much worse,” she said. “Fewer babies will make it through to adulthood as sources of food become scarce.”

    Baby squirrels are just one of many animals fleeing their homes and risking their lives to search for food sources that have been diminished by drought.

    California Department of Fish and Wildlife officials said drought has forced more bears and deer to venture onto mountain highways, where many are struck and killed by vehicles.

    Just in the last week, said Malcolm Dougherty, director of the California Department of Transportation, there were an “unprecedented” 23 collisions between wildlife and drivers on California 50 and Interstate 80 in Northern California.

    Recent wildfires, which have destroyed a significant amount of vegetation, have also forced wildlife to travel farther than usual for food. [there’s more]

  • Queenie Child:

    For more hour-to-hour extreme weather updates, use the Earth Wind Map which provides real-time NASA wind and ocean current data refreshed every three hours.

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-95.46,30.23,481

    The URL arguments provided center the map over North America at ~30,000 ft (the jet stream). Place the cursor over the globe and drag using the left-mouse-button (LMB), rotating the Earth map to the Southern hemisphere Antarctic. There you will see a defined jet stream. Next, rotate the Earth map to the Arctic and compare its meandering jet stream with the southern jet stream.

    As Paul Beckwidth points out, the warmer Arctic and thus weaker temperature gradient in the Northern hemisphere combined with the Earth’s rotation (angular momentum) has stretched the Northern jet stream into long waves (“polar vortex”) and subsequent extreme weather patterns. Today you can see the long arm segment of jet stream from the North Pole to the Gulf of Mexico which will bring a severe cold wave to the high-plains and southern regions in a day or so.

    Return to the map from time to time and notice how the northern jet stream is associated with high surface wind, as well as bringing cold air from the north or bringing warm air to the north.

    PS: Clicking a spot on the map yields coordinates and wind speed. Click the “Earth” label to view the controls and click the help section to obtain more details.

  • Well, that didn’t work.

    George Carlin YouTube ‘I gave up on my species’.

  • Infant,

    Well, I’ve seen them, held them and read them, and according to the Variation Pyramidic Scrolls, it will happen.

    Did not know Hugh Laurie was a comedic person?

  • Why waste your brain cells on Johnson type unscientific foolishness?

    MMM above has posted a 2013 paper using sound empirical data in support of a much more rapid onset of climate disruption & wet bulb death for all of us.

    “Instantaneous” release of massive stores of carbon appear to be in the near future.

    The rate of carbon release IS accelerating more than enough now to kill us all.

    My definition of despair – Every day I ask myself; “How will I deal with the ugly deaths of billions of innocent children, who never had a chance?”

    It has all come down to this soon-to-be-realized & observed horror.
    Some of us may be tough enough to face it.

    I am almost positive that I can’t.

  • @ kevin moore Says:
    December 29th, 2014 at 3:02 am &
    December 29th, 2014 at 3:05 am

    Is this…

    … what you wanted to post?

    I’m not sure when Carlin “gave up on [his] species” but I know I abdicated from the set known as “humans” more than a decade ago.

  • I’ve posted a new essay, courtesy of Carolyn Baker. It’s especially relevant to my current situation, and it’s here.

  • Tony

    “Jeff,

    Try listening to all parts of that interview that Shakhova gave to Nick Breeze. She mentions several times that they don’t have enough data for them to have a detailed understanding of Arctic methane dynamics. I’m not making things up. Listen for yourself. She’s concerned (or whatever other word you want to use) but recognizes that the data is sparse and would dearly like more research to be done so that a more complete data set can be built up.”

    Nice try, but simply more distortion from the troll. “Alarmed” is not the same as “concerned,” no matter how much Tony wants to spin it, and she openly started that things are likely WORSE than she has characterized them in her formal paper. I’m more than done with Tony.
    —————————–

    kevin moore Says:
    December 28th, 2014 at 5:25 pm
    “Jeff S

    The kinds of things I have been following which indicate ‘severe problems’ before the end of 2016 are:

    Japan’s saving rate has recently gone negative for the first time since records began (in 1955).

    Historically low interest rates have failed to generate economic growth in the western world (other than the phony growth associated with increased expenditure on education and healthcare etc.,) and after decades of rampant econo0mic growth, China has dropped interest rates to stimulate growth.

    Indeed, China imposed a tariff on Australian coal a few weeks ago – sure sign China doesn’t want Australian coal.

    The US staged a financial attack on Russia, which failed; this leaves only the ‘military solution’.

    In the district I live in the major sources of income -dairying and oil- have taken massive hits, both down 40 to 50% at the moment, and no reason to indicate any significant change.

    Two district councillor (out of 14) have resigned in disgust. The mayor, Andrew Judd, has zero credibility amongst that sector of the community that can think, and not much more than zero amongst the sector that cannot think. When you have a system which is blatantly corrupt and is grossly inefficient and ineffective, it cannot survive for long. And the four major boondoggles in the district that have created the impression the system has a future are all due for completion in 2015. Then what?

    I recently spoke with my brother, who lives ion England; he mentioned that the road surfaces are breaking up in Hampshire but because there is ‘no money’ temporary patch-ups are being done.

    The most recent Keiser Report focuses on gold, the manipulation of gold, repatriation of gold, rigged interest rates etc.

    The collapse in oil prices is starting to cause cancellation of capital expenditure and job losses, and when the energy ‘junk bond’ market starts to respond to missing cash flows things will start to get very interesting.

    Something very big is brewing.”

    Interesting stuff. But nothing here which convinces me of any sort of “severe” developments in the 6 to 18 months timeframe. Even a looming collapse of Japan can be mitigated by the Fed. If a collapse were to happen, the managers of Japan Inc would communicate to their American equivalents that they have two choices: watch the Japanese government launch a currency war, or bail out the Bank of Japan. I’d bet on them taking the latter option. What’s a few more trillion dollars? No one cares that the currency is worthless, as long as they can still buy what they need, as long as they still get cable TV piped into the living room,….. Would China’s managers really risk all the money they have invested in dollars, or to sink their by-far-largest consumer base, i.e. the US? There will be a collapse at some point, but i tend to think it would have to come from nature taking its turn at bat.

  • I detest Carolyn Baker’s foul self-aggrandizing money getting yuppism that she unabashedly sells here.

    Pretentious Carolyn doesn’t even realize that she is a glaring Ayn Rand clone.

    Sweet Carolyn will life coach for money & she ain’t cheap.

    Share what you have with some good people, do as little harm as possible, laugh whenever you can, & prepare for heat hell on earth.

  • THE RELAVENCE OF OUR PRESENT STATE

    There are some very educational links being provided in these post and maybe as our heat engine world begins to show we humans that nature is not going to stop and pause to argue with any one point, idea or thought, more people, especially in USA will seek the wisdom and truth Dr. McPherson is putting forth.

    I say this because I know of no other scientist speaking or organizing to speak about the profound truth of the dire predicament the world is now facing due to unabated fossil fuel burning and the real consequences thereof, for over 250 YEARS.

    Although the ClimateCental .org website, I feel , does not always get into the guts of the truth about global warming, they are having a series of articles about the global ice melt going on right now. They have posted their upcoming series on their website. I find it so apropo that one article is entitled: “CLIMATE CHANGE CALLING CARD 2014: HEAT.”

    Sometimes it seems so simplistic; our heat engine world has reached and surpassed tipping points or points of no return in respect to heating up the atmosphere. There are consequences to these actions done over the centuries. In short the heat is on. It’s CALLING CARD will not be withdrawn. It will only amplify and multiply. Reading the latest release at the AMEG, they used the term “DIRE”
    so frequently that it was almost scary. Here then is the problem with the misinformed and those willing to misinform, fear.

  • Jeff,

    It wasn’t a “try”, nice or otherwise. I was simply pointing out what Shakhova herself has said; that more data is needed, over time, in each location, to determine the dynamics of methane releases. She’s determined to continue carrying out the research, regardless of funding. Why? Presumably because she recognises that there is not enough data to reach firm conclusions, even if there is enough for her to be alarmed. If you’ve already determined those dynamics in your own mind, that is up to you.

    Gerald,

    Regarding the Wright and Schaller paper, there has been some controversy over whether the sediment cores actually resolved into annual layers. The latest I could find was an article in November by Pearson and Thomas. I couldn’t find a response by Wright and Schaller, even though they were alerted to the submission of the Pearson and Thomas paper. I don’t know if this is resolved yet, but we shouldn’t assume that one paper that harmonizes with our view is necessarily accurate.

  • Gerald Spezio,

    Is this the sweet one you meant ?
    Or were you goin’ for the Fracklin’ Rosy Scenario ?

    If you mashed up Marilyn Monroe & Josephine Baker…
    you might get something like
    Ashes to ashes…funk to funky
    Neil Diamonds are a girl’s best friend
    .
    .
    .

    .
    .
    .
    Just taking your advice and laughing while I can…
    Maybe we need a few more death coaches & a few fewer life coaches…just sayin’…

  • Tony, I already pointed out the response by Wright and Schaller to their critics. I don’t know why I respond to you, since you continue to ignore comments and evidence. Ditto for many others here who continue to correct your errors. Clearly we like feeding the trolls.

  • Guy,

    I saw an earlier response by Wright and Schaller, but this was a later paper and couldn’t find a subsequent response. If you have a link to their later response, I’d be glad to read it, but I haven’t been able to find one yet. The paper is actually still under review but, from the discussion page, looks like it will be published after a few edits. In that discussion Pearson says he notified Wright and Schaller of the submission but had not heard from them.

    I’m reminded of the Boyce paper in 2010 that “showed” a 50% phytoplankton decline since 1950 but, after some debate, Boyce’s team put together another paper that showed something rather less than that rather striking first observation. As Beckwith has noted, later studies and research can show earlier research to be wrong. From many of your comments, you seem to think that if one paper shows something scary, then it must be an accurate reflection of reality. However, in science, nothing is ever absolutely proven, as I’m sure you must know.

    So your snide comment is completely wrong. I don’t continue to ignore comments and evidence but I do continue to consider ALL evidence and I do realise that no-one can see the future in detail.

  • Bud,

    No problem and thanks for clarifying what you meant.

  • LIFE COACHING, DEATH COACHING, PSYCHOBABBLE FOR END TIMES, & GET THE MONEY

    FABLES IN SLANG; George Ade, circa 1903

    THE FABLE OF THE VISITOR WHO GOT A LOT FOR THREE DOLLARS.

    The Learned Phrenologist sat in his Office surrounded by his Whiskers.

    Now and then he put a Forefinger to his Brow and glanced at the Mirror to make sure that he still resembled William Cullen Bryant.

    Near him, on a Table, was a Pallid Head made of Plaster-of-Paris and stickily ornamented with small Labels. On the wall was a Chart showing that the Orangoutang does not have Daniel Webster’s facial angle.

    “Is the Graft played out?” asked the Learned Phrenologist, as he waited. “Is Science up against it or What?”

    Then he heard the fall of Heavy Feet and resumed his Imitation. The Door opened and there came into the Room a tall, rangy Person with a Head in the shape of a Rocky Ford Cantaloupe.

    Aroused from his Meditation, the Learned Phrenologist looked up at the Stranger as through a Glass, darkly, and pointed to a Red Plush Chair.

    The Easy Mark collapsed into the Boarding-House Chair and the Man with more Whiskers than Darwin ever saw stood behind Him and ran his Fingers over his Head, Tarantula-Wise.

    “Well, well!” said the Learned Phrenologist “Enough Benevolence here to do a family of Eight. Courage? I guess yes! Dewey’s got the same kind of a Lump right over the Left Ear. Love of Home and Friends—like the ridge behind a Bunker! Firmness—out of sight! Reverence—well, when it comes to Reverence, you’re certainly There with the Goods! Conscientiousness, Hope, and Ideality—the Limit! And as for Metaphysical Penetration—oh, Say, the Metaphysical Penetration, right where you part the Hair—oh, Laura! Say, you’ve got Charles Eliot Norton whipped to a Custard. I’ve got my Hand on it now. You can feel it yourself, can’t you?”

    “I can feel Something,” replied the Human Being, with a rapt Smile.

    “Wit, Compassion and Poetic Talent—right here where I’ve got my Thumb—a Cinch! I think you’ll run as high as 98 per cent on all the Intellectual Faculties. In your Case we have a Rare Combination of Executive Ability, or the Power to Command, and those Qualities of Benevolence and Ideality which contribute to the fostering of Permanent Religious Sentiment. I don’t know what your present Occupation is, but you ought to be President of a Theological Seminary. Kindly slip me Three Dollars before you Pass Out.”

    The Tall Man separated himself from Two Days’ Pay and then went out on the Street and pushed People off the Sidewalk, He thought so well of Himself.

    Thereafter, as before, he drove a Truck, but he was always glad to know that he could have been President of a Theological Seminary.

    Moral: A good Jolly is worth whatever you pay for it.

  • Let me get this straight, Tony. You value an unpublished paper more than a published paper that has responded to three published, critical comments. And you value all the evidence. All, that is, except when you disagree. Such as Garrett’s work. And methane release from the Arctic. And unpublished work disparaged by the likes of Johnson and Tobis as unworthy because it’s unpublished. And the comment from the IPCC that only fantasy technology can reverse global-warming.

    At this point, it’s impossible to not see it, unless you’re rewarded for not seeing it. The evidence is right there, in plain sight.

    I see a pattern. If it looks like a troll, sounds like a troll, and acts like a troll, perhaps it’s a troll.

  • Guy,

    No, you haven’t got it straight. It’s unpublished right now (mmm, did that Malcolm Light paper ever get published?), but it looks like it will get published soon. However, I’m just pointing out that the idea that those sediment layers are annular is still controversial. To bring up the Boyce paper as an example, again, you may recall that Boyce responded to criticisms early on and it looked like he was sticking to his conclusions but, clearly, there was enough meat in those criticisms for him to re-do his research and he reached a different conclusion. Are you still hanging on to his earlier paper or have you accepted his later paper?

    So far, there is only one piece of research (that I’m aware of) which suggests such a rapid rise in temperature. It will remain controversial until other research backs it up but I see that you have already concluded it must be correct because it fits your world view (and perhaps is the only way to get to human extinction by the 40s). I don’t rule out that it is correct but let’s keep an open mind, eh?

    Methane releases from the Arctic? Well, yes, there definitely are such releases. Are they increasing exponentially? Not enough data to say that, and even Shakhova admits that in her interview with Nick Breeze.

    The trouble is, Guy, that even though you often say you want to be persuaded that your conclusions are wrong, you don’t seem to want to consider alternative analyses. I will look at all analyses (except the bat-shit crazy deniers) and try to see where this is heading and how it might play out, though, not being able to see the future, I won’t be able to say any particular scenario is certain.

  • As you know, troll, I correct my errors, and report recent science. You adhere to delusion in continuing to deny reality.

  • Tony continued to the bitter end to insist that “alarmed” and “concerned” are really the same thing, and that the first was merely my choice of terms, when in fact it was Shakhova’s term as to how she saw the methane release situation. One more sign of trolls: they play (in this case, TRY to play) linguistic games, hoping that by repeating a lie often enough it will no longer be challenged and become truth. Good learning opportunity.

  • Guy,

    Yes, you sometimes correct your errors. If you want examples of where you don’t, please check on Johnson’s or Tobis’s posts. I don’t adhere to any illusions, I try to see things as they are, not how I’d like them to be. Consider your response to my comment to Gerald where you made assumptions about what I was referring to, instead of checking. You turned out to be wrong. You also haven’t commented on the fact that sometimes what you believe to be fact turns out not to be so (such as in the Boyce example). That’s just science. Maybe Wright and Schaller will turn out to be right. Maybe not.

    Jeff,

    Did you listen to Shakhova’s interview with Nick Breeze? I see you’re concentrating on a word that you say Shakhova used. I can concede that but it doesn’t change the fact that she understands that more data is needed to be able to say that certain things are happening in the way you imagine them to. I’m not saying there is no reason for alarm or concern but the situation certainly isn’t clear (apart from the stubbornly steady rise in methane, rather than a sudden leap or exponential rise since 2007, as measured by ground stations).

  • Word games are mind games. There are other ways to play mind games, but mind games with words as the weapon of choice is a primary activity of predatory personality disorders such as sociopaths and narcissists. Pathological liars are wired differently than other people, and the lies are not always direct, but circuitous, based in constantly shifting definitions and foci, nonsensical meaning, and an abundance of accusations that are wholly value judgments.

    Scott Johnson’s essay would be an embarrassment if he had any sense. Can you imagine writing paragraph after paragraph after paragraph of personal attack, with barely a clear veneer of substance in an attempt to hold its creative malice together? And then being proud of your work?

    That essay is no where near the level of Guy’s work. Johnson’s essay is no more complex than the ill will that it is. It is intellectual garbage and nonsense. And Tony’s outrageous and ridiculous demands, along with his intentional obfuscation, is not complex, either.

    Personally, I do believe in evil. And I believe in morality. Morality is about suffering. It isn’t about rules. It’s about destruction toward beings that is driven by malice.

    I recently watched a documentary about the conviction of John Tessier for the murder of Maria Ridulph. Maria was 7 at the time, and Tessier was about 17. Tessier was a monster who preyed on children his entire life, including his own sisters. There are interviews throughout the documentary with Tessier, and it is something to watch. He has an answer for everything. He was born around 1940, and to this day he denies everything, without exception. Everyone else is wrong. And he always, always, always has an answer, but only a specific kind of answer, and it is always a lie, a distortion, a deflection, an evaluation that worked in his favor.

    I consider these behaviors to be the human version of plutonium radioactive waste. There is no safe contact possible. None. It’s not possible to be around that without it being draining, at best, because it demands that you think about the interaction being directed at you (some people say “targeted” for the action).

  • No, oldgrowthforest, I can’t imagine writing personal attacks and calling it science. I can’t imagine being proud of non-science (i.e., nonsense). But many can. It must be difficult to face the mirror. If you want to know how difficult, check with Tony the troll.

  • I won’t be looking at essays by Johnson or Tobis to correct my errors. Their essays are exemplary for attacking me, based on errors of their own.

  • There is a wealth of cumulative empirical evidence indicating the increasing probability of an abrupt methane release from arctic stores.

    “It is not the absolute status of an hypothesis embedded in the universe of all conceivable theories (it was here that Karl Popper committed his fatal error), but the plausibility of an hypothesis relative to a definite set of specified alternatives, that Bayesian inference determines.”

    “The functional use of induction in science is not to tell us what predictions must be true, but rather what predictions are most strongly indicated by our present hypotheses & OUR PRESENT INFORMATION.”

    “As Harold Jefferys explained long ago, induction is most valuable to a scientist just when it turns out to be wrong; only then do we get new fundamental knowledge.”

    from PROBABILITY THEORY, The Logic of Science, Edwin T. Jaynes, 2003, Cambridge Univ. Press pp 310-311

  • Guy,

    I feel sure that you haven’t looked at Johnson’s essay (maybe not even Tobis’s) as you seem to imply. Contrary to what OldGrowthForest says, it isn’t packed with personal attacks, though I’m sure some of the words could be construed that way, just as some of your words can be construed as personal attacks. It looks like covering one’s ears and going “la, la, la”. There is certainly some reasonable criticism in Johnson’s work, if you care to look.

    Gerald,

    Determining the likelihood of an abrupt methane release from the Arctic requires more data than is currently available. Personally, I believe it’s more likely than many of the “trusted” (as Shakhova calls them) scientists think but that is just a belief. I hope we get more data but there doesn’t seem to be a rush of funding for the empirical research needed, sadly.

  • Tony, proceeding on the assumption that you are a sincere fellow.

    Bayesian inference deals with DETERMINATE problems – NOT the undefined problems that confused long suffering Popper.

    The great tragedy here is that Popper is still considered the premier philosopher of science, & it appears that you are his alter boy.

    The formal notation is not as esoteric as may appear at first glance.

    After many pitfalls Pierre Laplace concluded that the general theorem for Bayes’ method had to be:

    P(C|E) = [ P(E|C)Pprior(C) ] / [ΣP(E|C’)Pprior(C’)

    Which says that the probability of a hypothesis C given some evidence E equals our initial estimate of the probability times the probability of the evidence given the hypothesis C divided by the sum of the probabilities of the data in all possible hypotheses.

    History of Bayes’ Theorem – Less Wrong

  • Gently stroking a very alive & very beautiful horse.

    “If the predictions prove to be wrong, the the induction(s have served their real purpose; we have learned that our hypotheses are wrong or incomplete & from the nature of the error we have a clue as to how they could be improved.

    So those who criticize induction on the grounds that it might not be right could not possibly be more mistaken.

    As Harold Jefferys explained long ago (in 1939), induction is most valuable to a scientist just when it turns out to be wrong; only then do we get new fundamental knowledge.”

    from PROBABILITY THEORY, The Logic of Science, Edwin T. Jaynes, 2003, Cambridge Univ. Press p.311

  • Gerald,

    I’m not sure what you’re point is but I’m no-one’s alter boy. The trouble with Guy’s conclusions from the evidence he cites, is not that he might be wrong but that he believes, absolutely, that he’s right.

  • Tony, the trouble with your conclusions is that you cannot refute any evidence I’ve presented. Ditto for the nonsensical people you cite as authorities, who believe ad hominem attacks qualify as evidence.

  • Guy is doing what a forthright scientist & impeccably honest man must do – by simple definition.

    Guy is reasoning as a scientist must, & that means reasoning “consistently & rationally under uncertainty.”

    Guy’s inferences from the overwhelming & compelling evidence demands that he make the gruesome hypotheses & predictions that would upset any intelligent observer.

    It’s the bummer of all bummers.

    What happens to our world from here on out is the mandatory test of Guy’s predictions based on the evidence available NOW.

    If there isn’t any prediction; there is nothing to test.

    Be thankful that he has the courage to “tell it like it is.”

    Guy is not the only hard nosed scientist making such predictions

    Yes, his message is ugly as ugly can get.

    If he is proven wrong, we can all rejoice.

    If he is proven right as the accumulating evidence clearly shows; make sure that you have made the most of your time left.

    I am willing to thank him in advance.

    from Lesswrongwiki;

    Bayes’ theorem in simple English.

    A law of probability that describes the proper way to incorporate new evidence into prior probabilities to form an updated probability estimate.

    Bayesian rationality takes its name from this theorem, as it is regarded as the foundation of consistent rational reasoning under uncertainty. A.k.a. “Bayes’s Theorem” or “Bayes’s Rule”

  • THE RELEVANCE OF OUR PRESENT CLIMATE STATE

    THE NEW YEAR in Australia is HOT, HOT, HOT. Some areas are 12c above their average temperature since record-taking began.

    Destructive Bush FIRES in southern and western Australia. Their spring had early record HEAT also. (PLEASE NOT OPERATIVE WORDS)

    Check out ClimateCentral.org story: “Climate Change Calling Card:Heat.”

    THE HEAT IS ON FOR ONE OF THE CANARIES IN THE COAL MINE, AUSTRALIA.OTHER CANARIES: THE FLOODING ISLAND NATIONS PRESENTLY GOING UNDER WATER FROM RISING SEA LEVELS CAUSED BY THE MELTING ICE IN BOTH POLES AND ICELAND.

    Unprecedented warm waters are going to bring MONSTER STORMS, just as Dr. James Hansen anticipate his grandchildren will live through;thus the title of his book “STORMS OF MY GRANDCHILDREN.”

    I do pray and believe in prayer. I hope people will pray and start seeing many truths.

  • CORRECTION

    THE MELTING IN BOTH POLES AND GREENLAND

    PLEASE (NOTE) OPERATIVE WORDS : HEAT which brings more and more FIRES.

  • THE RELEVANCE OF OUR PRESENT CLIMATE STATE

    MORE EVIDENCE PRESENTED BY MORE SCIENTISTS.

    Decided to post the information form ClimateCentraL.org

    TITLE: Climate Change’s Calling Card in 2014: Heat

    Published: January 1st, 2015

    Global warming and extreme heat continued filling the airwaves in 2014 and it’s likely that the hits will just keep coming in 2015 and beyond.

    This year is virtually guaranteed to go down as the world’s hottest on record. But it’s not just one hot year we’re talking about. It’s a staggering list.
    Consider that the 15 hottest years on record have all come since 1997. Or that this will be the third straight decade to break the mark for global temps. And that it’s been 358 months since the planet had a cooler-than-average month, and more than 100 years since we last had a record-cold month.

    None of this should come as a surprise. As the world warms, record heat is climate change’s calling card. As a new year turns over, a number of signs point to 2015 following in this year’s toasty footsteps. This includes the possibility of a weak El Niño further raising global temperatures and clues from coral reefs indicating a heat spike could be looming in the near future.

    Numbers only tell part of the story. The impacts of rising temperatures are what really matter. The oceans are warming, likely storing the planet’s excess heat (though that can’t continue indefinitely). The polar regions are melting, raising sea levels. Increased heat fuels wildfires and exacerbates drought, which feeds into water and food scarcity, potentially igniting regional conflicts. Public health could also be threatened by heat waves and insect-borne diseases that thrive in the heat.

    Yet global warming is not monolithic. Striking changes are afoot in the Arctic, where temperatures are warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe, and in Australia, whose isolation offers scientists a venue to examine the impacts of extreme heat more closely.

    In many ways, that continent is a poster child for global warming. After having its hottest year on record in 2013 — which research has tied directly to climate change — heat waves baked the country in January 2014. Then April capped Australia’s warmest two-year period on record.
    “They’ve left behind the climate that they used to have,” NOAA research meteorologist Thomas Knutson told Climate Central earlier this year.

    Back in the U.S., the country is divided by red states and blue states, and not just politically.

    California is on track to smash its warmest year on record. In an age where temperature records are usually broken by one-tenth or one-hundredth of a degree, the state was running 4.1°F above its long-term average, besting its previous record set in 1934 by 1.7°F. A swath of other western states from Arizona to Washington are also looking at one of their five hottest years on record. The western U.S. could see temperatures up to 8°F warmer by 2100, putting this year’s top 5 finish to shame.
    In contrast, a number of states in the Midwest are on track for their top 10 coldest years thanks to the much maligned polar vortex. If history is any lesson, this pattern could become the norm as the world warms. A finding earlier this year showed that 4,000 years ago, temperature gradients across the globe were similar to what they are now and contributed to a kinky jet stream, a fast moving river of air that drives weather around the globe.

    Having a lot of twists and turns in the jet stream can lock weather patterns into place for long periods of time, just as it did this year in the U.S. with the cold-East, warm-West divide.

    The difference is that 4,000 years ago, the pattern was brought on by natural shifts. The current pattern, according to scientists, has a stronger connection to greenhouse gases with extreme warming in the Arctic reducing the temperature gradient from the pole to the equator. There’s little doubt that a wavier jet stream can drive more extreme weather including heat, but the role of Arctic warming in causing extreme weather in mid-latitudes is still very much up for debate in 2015 and beyond.

    One thing not up for debate is the fact that human activity is a significant driver of global warming, with carbon dioxide emissions at the heart of the issue. Those emissions are not slowing and with atmospheric concentrations of CO2 likely to reach 400 parts per million even earlier this year than last, climate change’s hit parade will top the charts for all the new years ahead.

    (I think the 8 degrees warmer for the western U.S. is highly conservative.)

    JUST PUTTING OUT MORE INFORMATION. TRUTH IS WHAT IT IS!!!

  • Guy,

    Well, it’s interesting that you put it that way – refuting the evidence. Because it seems to be largely your interpretation of the evidence that is in question. It’s hard to refute that a peer reviewed paper has appeared, for example, but easier to suggest that such a paper is not what you think it is. However, your citation of dodgy graphs by a certain Sam Carana can certainly be refuted.

    But let’s take one piece of evidence. You often quote Shakhova’s and Semiletov’s work as evidence that methane has already gone exponential in the Arctic. But in the 2013 interview you link to in the mammoth essay Shakhova talks about “potential” risk and her apparent “look of abject despair”, as you put it, is simply your interpretation. To others, it may look like she is simply collecting her thoughts. But have you asked her? In her most recent interview with Nick Breeze, that I linked to above, she mentions, a number of times, that more research is needed and she can’t say that methane is increasing because they don’t usually revisit areas. So there is little historical data. In one of her recent papers, she doesn’t even mention hydrates. Does Shakhova’s evidence support your hypothesis that the clathrate gun has fired, or just make it more likely that it will fire?

  • Tony Weddle, you’re a tiresome little troll. You constantly divert attention from relevant issues. You’re an attention-seeking child. “Look at me, look at me!”

    Shakhova’s 50-gigatonne release of methane from the Arctic is only the beginning. And it’s highly possible at any time.

    Have you any comment about Carana’s research? I’ve never seen you address his research. Rather, you use the age-old approach of attacking the messenger, as I’ve come to expect from you.