Edge of Extinction: Ticket for the Titantic

______

If you’re interested in funding an assistant to travel with me in Europe, a crowd-funding campaign is under way. Check it out here.
______

I was one of four panelists in this panel at the Earth at Risk conference in November 2014. Click the link to see a trailer and also to view the 90-minute result on the following dates and times (Mountain time zone in the United States):

Upcoming Airdates

Thursday, April 16th 7:00 am
Saturday, April 18th 7:30 pm
Saturday, April 18th 10:30 pm
Wednesday, April 22nd 10:00 am

______

Catch Nature Bats Last on the radio with Mike Sliwa and Guy McPherson. Tune in every Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern time, or catch up in the archives here. If you prefer the iTunes version, including the option to subscribe, you can click here.

______

Please visit the DONATIONS tab. I’m open to non-monetary donations, subject only to your creativity. For example, I would appreciate your generosity with respect to frequent-flyer miles.
______

8-29 April 2015, western Europe (please follow the tour at guymcpherson.net and also on Facebook)

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

McPherson’s latest book is co-authored by Carolyn Baker. Extinction Dialogs: How to Live with Death in Mind is available. Electronic copy is available here from Amazon.

Tech note, courtesy of mo flow: Random issues have been appearing with posting comments. Sometimes a “Submit Comment” click will return a 404 Page Not Found, or another error, for no apparent reason. To ensure you don’t lose a longer comment, you can right-click select all, and right-click copy, in the comment box before clicking “Submit.” If that hasn’t been done, the comment text will likely still be in the comment box when clicking the back button, or the forward button — depending on the error — on your browser.

Pin It

Comments 64

  • I’ve tried offering life jackets, rafts, lifeboats etc. Most passengers still think the Titanic is unsinkable and say: “No thanks, I don’t need it.”

    The funny thing is, when Brunel suggested making ships of iron people laughed at him and said they would never float.

  • “Ticket for the Titantic” I for one effing hate that concept. Its total BS! It is exactly what happened to the environmental/conservation movement of the ’60s. Everyone got tired of living like “dirty hippies” and so they all said fu#k it nothing is going to get better so lets just make a bunch of money and live large.

    I have seen it in the peak oil crowd over the last few years too. They all say that no one is going to do anything or we can’t do anything so lets cash in on this information and live large while we can. Its BS! Its a self fulfilling prophesy. No one will do anything because they prefer to go first class rather than do whats right.

    The next stage of this sick way of thinking is “oh you say there is no more room in first class? BANG! I just shot you in the face so now there is space for me”.

  • Ahem, many survived the Titanic sinking, so the Metaphor may be grossly misleading.

    After exploding the British battleship, Hood, sank with 800 dead & 3 survivors.

    NASA, GISS; global temp up .84 Arctic temp up 4. – 7.5 up from baseline 1981 – 2000.

    Götterdämmerung

    noun Göt·ter·däm·mer·ung ˌgə(r)-tər-ˈde-mə-ˌru̇ŋ, -ˈda-

    Definition of GÖTTERDÄMMERUNG;

    a collapse (as of a society or regime) marked by catastrophic violence and disorder; broadly : downfall

    A brutally “predictive” graphic at Robert Scribbler today.

  • I think Diana has the best advice right about now.

  • Looks to me like Elvis is doing ok, I guess as long as his manual dexterity remains good! 😉

    Mac in Mn

  • oh boy!!! more deck chairs to re-arrange. Guy, with enough time you could put together a pretty good stand up routine…oh well, you know. hi caroline, I hope the little chickadees are singing directly to you this morning. colin…si! senor tonne mui magnifico…your description was accurate…throw in a little classical with a touch of django Reinhardt on the side…another great bohemian guitar master. Gerald find yourself some sand and one of those funny umbrella drinks…this is what all these fine people are talking about…acceptance…MO!!! shouldn’t short posters like myself(2’7″)get maybe three posts a day? cheers

  • Poseidon Adventure. Titanic Tsunami. First class elite are paying huge sums to http://www.NNSA.energy.gov for a safety plan. A small amount are fully prepared to inherit a less populated Earth….as soon as the radiation meltdown problem is solved with Applied Molecular Evolution synthetic radiation eating Tardigrade hybrids. Anyone with a nuclear physics degree is needed to serve after the “event.” Reductions required for a better quality of life. Civilized “Elysium” sustainability for the select who hope to preserve resources for their needs with less problems & population to control. Apply now for a value-asset-future worker evaluation.

    Radiation level is 9.7 Sieverts in Fukishima. This increased level destroyed the reactor tank robot in 3 hours. (It is supposed to last 7 hours) 9.7 sieverts = rapid human death. Silence also equals death. Do not be pacified about the Pacific warming. If you are going to die might as well do something about Tar Sands David Koch or Australia’s richest woman (Gina Rheinhart) who owns the largest strip mines. You are not included in their lifeboats or NWO inherit the Earth plans. Riot or die quiet. Let them eat cake at Versailles?

  • Mike & Afrizen — THANK YOU for the Music!

    And yes, Anger is an appropriate expression among all the love we would like to end up with. We go through it, and come back to it. The song about “Guillotines” has some appeal.

    Awareness of my own complicity confuses me at times, but that also is a phase to pass through. I don’t have to be innocent to be Angry. (Isn’t stuffing your Anger a good recipe for getting cancer?)

    No, the awareness of ongoing slaughter has been with me, viscerally, since — oh — around My Lai times, all those babies lying in that ditch, with young brainless ‘Merikan lads standing by with their guns, waiting for more orders in their Calley-Yuga. (The top brass sent them out on long, dangerous missions, hoping they’d all be killed to shut them up.)

    As I add more decades to my experience, I revisit the madness (watch wwII documentaries, just watched German invasion of Russia, for example) of times before I was born, and it all seems so much more inevitable, and unstoppable. It just comes in waves, enough to allow us to forget a little, and feel “normal” for a short while. “Normal”? Ha!

    Political revolution? With Emma Goldman, I am near to concluding that the slaves love their chains, and the taste of their Masters’ boots. OCCUPY was the last reflexive flare-up of my remnant of Hope. (After which I discovered NBL 😉

    Shock over abrupt climate change and NTHE? This is the country that was willing to incinerate the planet (“bounce the rubble”) with nuclear overkill, since I was about 9 years old. Still is.

    Or build, planet-wide, 400+ nuclear power plants, whose radioactive wastes last for 25,000 years. Sheer insanity.

    Why should anyone be shocked at this outcome? We just got to spin the dial, over which way to have it. Bang or Whimper. “American Roulette”, with five bullets in the gun. Spin slow; that empty chamber might just be waiting for you.

    Beautiful Spring day; I’ve never appreciated hearing the birds before as much as since I’ve been waking up with you all here.

  • guess who’s coming for summer
    we’re having el nino for dinner
    as long as it stays in the family
    the patriarchal base of our society
    things can’t go wrong. or can they?

  • The matter of the disgraceful so-called plan for the future of he district was raised at bridge last night, and not by me!

    I am quite comfortable with describing NPDC so-called plan as rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, and did so last night. She’s going down fast now.

    Other analogies include:

    setting off for a long flight over the Pacific and not bothering to check the fuel level

    driving a car and never putting oil in the engine, and then wondering why the engine seized up

    driving a car and never inflating the tyre; when the tyres rip to shreds just keep driving on the rims…..till you can’t

    organising a picnic on a railway track because you don’t believe in trains (even though you sit on the rails)

    Let’s face it, the level of idiocy of so-called leaders defies description.

    By the way, California is cooking up nicely. I think it has something to do with government officials overriding the assessment of the west around 100 years ago as being largely unsuitable for human habitation or ‘development’; wrong answer.

    ‘Most of the West saw little to no precipitation this week. Select areas of the Rockies were experiencing some snowfall as the week ended, the impacts of which will be assessed in the map next week. Likewise, the Pacific Northwest saw some coastal precipitation. However, it was largely limited to the areas that are not currently experiencing drought conditions. Little change was made to the drought depiction in the West with the exception of degradation in conditions in and around Wyoming, southern Montana, and northeast Utah. Severe (D2) and Moderate Drought (D1) and Abnormal Dryness (D0) expanded in that area. Little precipitation came to California again this week and no changes were made to the state depiction. At the end of the week, the statewide snow water equivalent stood at 5% of average and Extreme (D3) to Exceptional Drought (D4) again covered two-thirds of the state.’

    http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

    It was ‘fun while it lasted’, for some.

  • American slaves in particular love their chains…in fact they can’t see them…”the greatest enemy to freedom is the lucky slave” m.eschenbach c/1900.

  • kevin moore, it was fun & more fun, at least for me.

    I had a great time, but I put at least 3000 tons of CO2 into the atmospheric commons.

    I just didn’t know what harm I was doing, but I dunit big time.

    NOW, innocent children will pay with their lives for my fun & games.

    All of us rich bastids are guilty, some more some less.

    Our culture gave us the high tech tools & we ran with it.

    digixplor, Grazi, for Estas Tonne.

    See “Paths of Glory?” Shid Man, I memorized it.

    One grunt’s opinion; Umbrella drinks can’t hold a candle to good smoke.

  • Yesterday, I posted a brief comment about the escalating methane veil at Scribbler & was banned.

    Robert claims it was for my scathing “antiSemitic” (quoting Robert) attacks on his preferred lawyerfish careerist politicos; Hillarious & Elizabeth Warren.

    Professed populist Warren’s position about innocent Iranian children from WARREN’S OWN FOREIGN POLICY STATEMENT;

    Israel
    Since its founding more than 60 years ago, Israel and the United States have been steadfast, trusted, and reliable allies. I unequivocally support the right of a Jewish, democratic state of Israel to exist, safe and secure. I believe that it is a moral imperative to support and defend its existence.

    For generations, the United States and Israel have shared a commitment to a stable, secure, and peaceful Middle East. But our alliance runs far deeper: it is a natural partnership resting on our mutual commitment to democracy and freedom and on our shared values. Both our countries have been sustained by our commitment to liberty, pluralism, and the rule of law. These values transcend time, and they are the basis of our unbreakable bond.

    As a United States Senator, I will work to ensure Israel’s security and success. I believe Israel must maintain a qualitative military edge and defensible borders. The United States must continue to ensure that Israel can defend itself from terrorist organizations and hostile states, including Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and others. I also believe firmly that a two-state solution is in the interest of Israel and the United States. Lasting peace, however, requires negotiations between the parties themselves, and although the United States can and should aid in this process, we cannot dictate the terms.

    Unilateral actions, such as the Palestinians’ membership efforts before the United Nations, are unhelpful, and I would support vetoing a membership application.
    Iran

    Iran is a significant threat to the United States and our allies. Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, it is an active state sponsor of terrorism, and its leaders have consistently challenged Israel’s right to exist. Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons is unacceptable because a nuclear Iran would be a threat to the United States, our allies, the region, and the world. The United States must take the necessary steps to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

    I support strong sanctions against Iran and believe that the United States must also continue to take a leadership role in pushing other countries to implement strong sanctions as well. Iran must not have an escape hatch.

    ———–

    I posted this about approaching methane death separately

    Although estimates vary, we can claim at least a low/acceptable estimate of at least 3000 Gt methane stores in the Arctic from both hydrates, permafrost, & including escalating wildfires in Siberia as stated in this post by Robert.

    Even 3500 Gt wouldn’t be overstating the case.

    So, .5 % of 3000 = 15 Gt

    Even .1 % of 3000 or a measly 3Gt would deliver us into hell on earth pronto.
    … that is one tenth of one percent.

    At least 300 – 500 million tons of methane minimum are escaping to the atmospheric commons as I peck.

    In a hard hitting expository new piece today, April 16th Robert Scribbler says;

    ” … And the carbon store in the Arctic is showing signs that it may be actively venting higher volumes of greenhouse gasses back into the atmosphere and oceans.

    As a leading indicator that some of these carbon stores are starting to fill up, or worse, dump a significant portion of their sequestered carbon back into the atmosphere, we would expect to see spiking levels of CO2 and CH4 in the global measures. Which is why when, starting on April 5 of 2015, Mauna Loa CO2 values shot up to around 404 to 405 parts per million in some of the hourly records, a few eyebrows were raised.”

    ——
    It shouldn’t be long before most pilgrims accept, grudgingly or not,
    what Guy has been telling us, including Robert.

    The real simple question now is; “How could the methane NOT GO MORE bonkers?”

    We will know in short order.

    Maybe by the end of summer?

  • Heard from the stern of the ship “We can’t be sinking, look we are 200 meters above sea level”

  • @ Henry Says:
    April 16th, 2015 at 11:35 am

    … The song about “Guillotines” has some appeal.

    Do you mean this one?

    @ Marc Austin Says:
    April 16th, 2015 at 11:19 am

    Yes, any efforts to mitigate or alleviate or compensate for biosphere collapse are only likely to benefit the psychopaths with the most money and power. One can either be a sycophant and aid these vermin or do whatever one can to ensure they, too, do not survive.

  • Desdemona Despair has a bunch of really good posts lately. Today there’s three, the first of which is this:

    Why this new study on Arctic permafrost is so scary – ‘You can’t re-freeze the permafrost’
    http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2015/04/why-this-new-study-on-arctic-permafrost.html

    Scientists might have to change their projected timelines for when Greenland’s permafrost will completely melt due to man-made climate change, now that new research from Denmark has shown it could be thawing faster than expected.

    Published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change, the research shows that tiny microbes trapped in Greenland’s permafrost are becoming active as the climate warms and the permafrost begins to thaw. As those microbes become active, they are feeding on previously-frozen organic matter, producing heat, and threatening to thaw the permafrost even further.

    In other words, according to the research, permafrost thaw could be accelerating permafrost thaw to a “potentially critical” level.

    “The accompanying heat production from microbial metabolism of organic material has been recognized as a potential positive-feedback mechanism that would enhance permafrost thawing and the release of carbon,” the study, conducted by researchers at the University of Copenhagen’s Center for Permafrost, said. “This internal heat production is poorly understood, however, and the strength of this effect remains unclear.”

    [that’s right, yet ANOTHER feed-back]

    The other two articles about the CA water crisis, as kevin points out above, and the crashing of the sardine population are also well worth your time.

  • What if the Titanic did not sink, but when it got to port there was no safe port there any more:

    Since that slope is upward, and the recent measurements have shown a significant upward slope, we know not only that there is acceleration in SLR going on, but we know that the rate of acceleration is going to be catastrophic to ports.

    (The Evolution of Models – 5).

  • kevin moore says: “It was ‘fun while it lasted’, for some.”

    ==

    Was It Worth It?

    Since we’re all about to succumb,
    Can we say, by some rule of thumb,
    Was life inhumane?
    Was the gain worth the pain?
    —It was fun while it lasted, for some.

  • is something declining 1% per year 50% gone in 70 years or 100% gone in 70 years, please help — signed, autospasz

  • If i am declining 1% per year when will i be 100% gone?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5Ftw5PZzWo

  • @ Robert Callaghan Says:
    April 16th, 2015 at 4:05 pm

    If i am declining 1% per year when will i be 100% gone?

    Okay, I’ll bite…

    A decline/decrease of anything, including “you,” at a rate of 1%/yr will result in 49.98% of that anything remaining after 70yrs. Then…

    after 139 years, 24.98% remains,
    after 231 years, 9.91% remains,
    after 300 years, 4.95% remains,
    after 460 years, 0.99% remains.

    Finally(?), after 918 years only 0.00994% remains. Mathematically, the value of the remaining amount will never be zero, hence the extensive discussion of the concept of “limits” in every introductory Calculus course. I hope this answers your question.

  • I’d help you r.c., but I’m over my limit. are these trick questions? are you in the cast of trailor park boys? my dad was Canadian, and I was born on st. patricks day. I kid you not. is that a relative of yours in the film credits? my mother was eighteen in Norway in 1940 when the germans moved in. her brother was in the norwegian under ground and was killed by the nazis. boy she had some stories. took most of them wth her though. it’s been a calm fifty+yrs here in n.america for me…we sure have gotten complacent. I better go, mo’s gonna be pissed.

  • shit, I knew those were trick questions.

  • The one thing you can count on is that everybody’s got an opinion…

    http://huff.to/1cADqIO

  • @BtD:

    Was It Worth It?

    Since we’re all about to succumb,
    Can we say, by some rule of thumb,
    Was life inhumane?
    Was the gain worth the pain?
    —It was fun while it lasted, for some.

    >>>

    In response:

    Was It Worth It – Redux

    Romantic love seems kind of dumb
    Since the story is so often glum.
    It starts out ecstatic
    But turns problematic.
    The things humans do just to come!

  • digixplor, was your dad a solider – a liberator in WWII?

  • Two rudimentary sentences; The next 6 months will deliver the richest data sets in the history of mankind & science.

    The months following will deliver even richer data sets.

  • no , he didn’t liberate much, except me from my porno. actually he was a sharpshooter in the Canadian army. he trained recruits how to shoot. he never had to leave Canada. you know those country boys never miss…and back then it meant eating or not. amazing how different a life can be in a single generation. how about you apneaman? good answer colin, but are you right? can somebody tell us if he’s right? cause it’s not the answer I came up with. sorry mo, I’m on a roll.

  • @colin and @Robert Callaghan, not knocking your exchange but pointing out that this sort of numerical sophistry becomes especially irrelevant when you start to think about food stocks, for example. In a “best case” perfectable sort of scenario, with an intentional distribution which, in humans at least, would have to be predicated on extreme violence and discrimination, having half the food would lead to half the population (of fish, non-human animals, humans, whatever) dying, and the other half surviving. But that’s not what really happens.

    What really happens is that half the food is consumed by the whole population for half the time between one harvest or season to the next. If everyone has only half the food they need to survive, everyone dies. (Well, what really happens in human populations lies somewhere between the two extremes of 50% to 100% mortality, due to chance but also to politics.)

    That’s why I think population tipping points for most species are much closer than generally foreseen or predicted, even here on NBL. It’s not just plausible but pretty much axiomatic that all the sea lions will die from lack of sardines before the sardines themselves are extinguished as a population.


    The above reasoning is valid for any resource, or poison, with adjusted tipping/extinction points. It may not be so linear as with food: a diminishment or increase of 10% in one direction or another might lead to general mortality. We just don’t know enough about these things and haven’t cared. In the circles in which I travel, I’ve been finding out that women have had cancer more often than not.

    What will kill half the trees? All the trees? We just don’t know and don’t care.

  • Nah, I never had the discipline for the military. Hell, in the 1970’s I use to get suspended at least a couple of games every hockey season for being an idiot. I’m over it now…..sort of. My uncle was a lifer in the RCAF mid 50’s – 80’s. I know a bit about the shooting prowess as I spent part of my youth living in the Canadian Rockies.

  • There is an overlooked problem with “acceptance” as it pertains to death. Acceptance implies a separateness, an alienness, a residue of something that makes “acceptance” necessary. A residue that is described as the fear of death, the fifth of the five defilements, any one of which will keep a person from realisation

    It stems from attachment, manifest by attraction and a corollary aversion. It falls short of non-attachment, the absence of desires (non-attachment does not imply the absence of preferences).

    Kshatriyas as a caste are traditionally involved in governance and security of society (not as much of community). The Buddha was one of them, excelling in the martial arts including archery and swordsmanship before he went AWOL. One of his cousins was a Datta.

    Since I had opted to be a part of this society, it became my ethical obligation to serve this society in an
    appropriate role: that’s why I was in the United States Army. Serving in the military is as natural a part of being a member of human society as stinging is a part of being a member of a hornet’s nest, and has been so ever since communities were replaced by soceities.

  • digixplor,
    2′ 7″ ? You’re allowed 5 posts a day.

  • The Titanic, if it was sailing today, would have to travel through ocean garbage.

    Is “The Blob” in the Pacific Ocean now a strange feedback loop (New Continent Found – Garbage Gyre II – 9)?

  • Proof-readers Limerick:

    It ain’t a pretext to go frantic,
    I know it’s a trifle pedantic,
    But when we set sail,
    On a ship bound to fail,
    I don’t think it’s named the ‘Titantic’?

    Check your title, Guy!…. 🙂

  • Bunch of great comments and responses today. Way to go people!

    Colin: attaway to dust off the ol’ slide rule!
    Lidia: awesome interpretation out in the ‘real’ world!

    Ben and ed: super enjoyable limericks and repartee!

    Gerald: you’re right – but we may not like what we see.

    david: that last comment was funny, thanks!

    In my last post i stated that the linked article revealed a new feedback, but after going back and checking, it may be included under #39 of Climate-Change Summary and Update (though i think it’s different, it’ll need a ruling by Guy to confirm).

    well, no matter. Here’s robert scribbler’s latest, illustrating how our models continue to underperform:

    A Fearful Glance at the Global Carbon Stores — Weekly CO2 Values Hit 404 Parts Per Million a Little Too Soon

    https://robertscribbler.com/2015/04/16/a-fearful-glance-at-the-global-carbon-stores-weekly-co2-values-hit-404-parts-per-million-a-little-too-soon/

    [ends with]

    To this final point, I’ll leave you with the somewhat related Mauna Loa CH4 measure which has, lately, also been showing an increasing rate of accumulation for that greenhouse gas [graph, followed by]

    (Mauna Loa Methane measure shows ramping up of atmospheric CH4 readings at that station. Image source: NOAA ESRL.)

    Tings ain’t lookin’ too good ova heah. [Tony Soprano]

  • entire poem: BRILLIANT

    Bukowski: Born into This

    Dinosauria, we

    born like this
    into this
    as the chalk faces smile
    as Mrs. Death laughs
    as the elevators break
    as political landscapes dissolve
    as the supermarket bag boy holds a college degree
    as the oily fish spit out their oily prey
    as the sun is masked

    we are
    born like this
    into this
    into these carefully mad wars
    into the sight of broken factory windows of emptiness
    into bars where people no longer speak to each other
    into fist fights that end as shootings and knifings

    born into this
    into hospitals which are so expensive that it’s cheaper to die
    into lawyers who charge so much it’s cheaper to plead guilty
    into a country where the jails are full and the madhouses closed
    into a place where the masses elevate fools into rich heroes

    born into this
    walking and living through this
    dying because of this
    muted because of this
    castrated
    debauched
    disinherited
    because of this
    fooled by this
    used by this
    pissed on by this
    made crazy and sick by this
    made violent
    made inhuman
    by this

    the heart is blackened
    the fingers reach for the throat
    the gun
    the knife
    the bomb
    the fingers reach toward an unresponsive god

    the fingers reach for the bottle
    the pill
    the powder

    we are born into this sorrowful deadliness
    we are born into a government 60 years in debt
    that soon will be unable to even pay the interest on that debt
    and the banks will burn
    money will be useless
    there will be open and unpunished murder in the streets
    it will be guns and roving mobs
    land will be useless
    food will become a diminishing return
    nuclear power will be taken over by the many
    explosions will continually shake the earth
    radiated robot men will stalk each other
    the rich and the chosen will watch from space platforms

    Dante’s Inferno will be made to look like a children’s playground
    the sun will not be seen and it will always be night
    trees will die
    all vegetation will die
    radiated men will eat the flesh of radiated men
    the sea will be poisoned
    the lakes and rivers will vanish
    rain will be the new gold

    the rotting bodies of men will stink in the dark wind

    the last few survivors will be overtaken by new and hideous diseases
    and the space platforms will be destroyed by attrition
    the petering out of supplies
    the natural effect of general decay

    and there will be the most beautiful silence never heard

    born out of that.

    The sun still hidden there
    awaiting the next chapter.

  • Something I noticed that I was hoping Guy or others could comment on… looking at the Keeling Curve (link below for those that do not have it bookmarked), I am struck by the increasing variability in measurements taken since the February timeframe. If you hover your mouse over the timeframes listed immediately below the graph, the increasing variability of the measurements of CO2 is very noticeable in the one month, six months, one year, and two years graphs.

    With global emissions (at least those that they report) flattening last year, it is reasonable to expect global concentrations to continue to increase. But increasing variability is a puzzle to me. Why have the recorded measurements bouncing around more? Could this have more to do with sinks than sources? If we are breaking carbon sinks (vegetation dying off due to pollution, drought, land clearing etc.; warming ocean absorbing less CO2; etc.) can we expect CO2 to oscillate more widely? Keeling reporting 404.29 today.

    http://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

    PS I am looking forward to hearing from Guy about the Europe trip & how his message is received. Also, I hope Guy is doing well & staying healthy. It looked like a pretty grueling itinerary!

  • Although written by geoengineering technofixers …

    Methane pingos predicted to go bingo & possibly soon.

    During periods of lower atmospheric carbon dioxide and lower temperatures the permafrost methane vents became sealed by the formation of methane hydrate (clathrate) plugs forming pingos (Figures 5, 6 and 7; Hovland et al. 2006; Paull et al., 2007; Carana, 2011, Liesowska, 2015).

    The surface methane clathrate plugs have now been destabilized by human pollution induced global warming and the methane is being released into the atmosphere at the permafrost methane explosion vents.

    Extreme methane concentrations, up to 1000 times above the mean atmospheric level has been found at the base of the methane eruption vents by Russian scientists (Holthaus, 2015) confirming that they are still linked to deeper methane sources which may be geopressured.

    Before the Yamal B1 methane eruption vent developed, hillocks (pingoes) rose in the permafrost heralding the coming massive methane gas eruption (Figure 7; Liesowska, 2015).

    Other pingos adjacent to the Yamal B1 methane eruption vent could also collapse at any moment emitting a large cloud of methane gas (Liesowska, 2015).

    Arctic News: North Siberian Arctic Permafrost Methane Eruption Vents

  • yeah, Siberia may be a good place for a picnic this summer. I guess I’m just along for the ride.https://youtu.be/gTl1QtZL4TM

  • never mind the bilious ox…https://youtu.be/yZ2otvF_h1M 2 posts, from now on…I swear

  • Colin, digixplor, Lidia! Right the fuck on.

    i just got back from cutting grass in a trailer park.
    that’s why i’m late answering ya’ll.
    my grandfather came to Toronto in the 1890s.
    he killed a man in Ireland.
    he got a job driving trolley by horse.
    i’m bi-polar autistic aspergers with social turrets.
    plus, i’m just plain not normal.

    Russia and Canada combined to make up about one-third of global tree cover loss.

  • Anyone over 6’6″ (known as the mo line) is strictly limited to one and a half comments per day.

  • “2 posts, from now on…I swear”

    noted for the record.

    david – yep, and I will decide which half of the second post lives, and which dies. so you might have something like this:

    digixplor the fuck.

    i just got grass in a trailer park.
    that’s why i’m late.
    my grandfather came in the 1890s.
    he killed a trolley by horse.
    i’m bi, autistic, with turrets.
    plus i’m not normal.

  • you should say cheers after a tirade like that

  • LOL!

    sorry, digi. you totally read my mind. I was just thinking – “oh oh, I shoulda said “cheers” or digi is going to think I am angry.”

    cheers!
    ~mo

  • Dredd, just saw your blog post on the Great Pacific Garbage Patch. The Ocean is Dead, says a sailor who traveled the Pacific a couple of years back. Sometimes, anecdotal stories like this tell us much more than some well-funded, scientific studies carried out from multi-million dollar research vessels. Numbers don’t do it nearly as well as words do. And words themselves are a poor substitute to being there.

    ========

    When the oceans die, a part of humanity dies. When the forests fall, humanity falls. When species go extinct, a part of us goes extinct.

    We’re already dead in many ways. Death shows up as the lifeless social gathering where we make-pretend everything is fine. Death shows up in the sky as streaky striated clouds that appear twisted and torn. Death shows up on the faces of indigenous children as their hillsides are taken over by bauxite-hungry bulldozers. Death shows up as chronic neck disorders of screen-addicted teenagers.

    In a way, we here on NBL and elsewhere, are conducting a post-mortem. We’re coroners and morticians. According to Wikipedia, a coroner is an official who investigates violent, sudden, or suspicious deaths. Humanity is facing a violent and sudden death alright (2 million year old species dying inside of 200 years should count as sudden, even though it’s been sick for a while longer), but it’s not easy to understand the “suspicious” circumstances of its death. But we try. Strangely, the investigation, if it is to be done at all, must be done before the final gasp is taken by the last of us. But who cares when everyone else is already gone?

    Most of us are already checked out. Not nearly to the degree as the hikikomori, but cut off from sensation, immune to news, immersed in virtual worlds, imbecilic impostors of our former selves. We’re already dead in many ways.

  • @Satish: In a way, we here on NBL and elsewhere, are conducting a post-mortem. We’re coroners and morticians.

    >>>

    Some think they’re coroners and morticians.
    Some, eco-warriors on a mission.
    Some like to explain.
    Some like to complain.
    And some have just upped and gone fishin’.

  • @Satish: Most of us are already checked out. Not nearly to the degree as the hikikomori, but cut off from sensation, immune to news, immersed in virtual worlds, imbecilic impostors of our former selves. We’re already dead in many ways.

    >>>

    I don’t think so, Satish.

    The hikikomori are doing a Japanese “Bartleby the Scrivener” thing right now, but they are certainly the exception, rather than the rule.

    What’s happening more broadly is that society, here in America and abroad as well, is becoming increasingly hot and fractionated into various and often competing self-interest groups. Rather than checking out, many folks are checking in with a fierce and often vicious contentiousness, as more and more people are demanding what they see as their rights and privileges.

    That’s the problem with giving people too much. It just makes them demand more. People are never satisfied, and even less satisfied when they know there is “good stuff” to be had, but somehow they’re not getting what they think is their fair share.

    This state of intense competition is only going to escalate as events unfold, and there are increasing shortages of food, water, energy and – the ultimate – money to go around. While some few will retreat into their rooms, most will go the other way. It’s just human nature, after all. And besides, most don’t have nice Japanese parents who are willing to provide free room and board, leaving meals at the door.

    Indeed, if the Bartleby/Hikikomori response was normative, we would not have had the spike we’ve had in human growth since the beginning of the industrial revolution, and really the renaissance. It was prior to that – during the middle ages and before – that the peasants were happily zombified. The same thing is as true in the East as in the West.

    The great irony here – and how much irony there is in the human condition all together – is that the individual and corporate desire for improvement in conditions inevitably brings us to this point of global crisis and ultimately NTHE. Our very desire to do better causes us to do worse.

    Or as Tom Cruise would say, “We’re here to improve conditions”.

  • Satish, I’m mostly ‘checked out’. I’ve become very careful who I let into my life. I have a profession where I mostly work alone. Too much exposure to people is like listening to too much news, depressing. It seems everyone I have ever met is really screwed up in some way. It’s easy to spot, since I’m screwed up too. People seem to lack the facility to work out the contradictions that infect their outlook on life, their values and morals.

    I like the geologist that tells about the Suicide Forest. A place where some hikikomori may end up. He seems to have found a deep peace. I admire him for that.

  • me, I choose life. For as long as I can live it, and I do plan on living forever, I don’t know about anyone else, but the aliens told me everyone does, so it’s all good.

  • “i’m bi-polar autistic aspergers with social turrets”

    You left out “meat-beating meat robot”. And by turrets, maybe what is meant is Tourette’s.

    “It’s easy to spot, since I’m screwed up too.”

    But your name isn’t Italian, so it’s okay.

    About the Italian:
    Divorce court lawyer: “Mrs. X, these are very unusual grounds; you say “Poor personal hygiene and sexual incompatibility”. What exactly do you mean, Mrs. X?”
    Mrs. X: “He is always picking his nose, and he never lets me get on top.”
    Divorce court lawyer: “What is the problem, Mr. X?”
    Mr. X: “No problem, your Honor. When I left home my father said “Son, you are a good Italian boy! Remember, keep your nose clean, and don’t screw up.”

    “I do plan on living forever”

    There are two kinds.

    Realised ones in a physical embodiment have the option of retaining thier present embodiment till the end of the currunt Cosmic Cycle, with its end to the current manifestation of space-time-causation. They do not have any sense of individuality, no “I”-ness. Almost all of them do not exercise the option.

    Ones without realisation retain a sense of individuality, of “I”-ness. If they have been granted continued existence in their present embodiment until the end of the current Cosmic Cycle with the end to its manifestation of space-time-causation, they have come under the worst of all possible curses for an embodied being.

    I have heard persons in nursing homes repeatedly, all day and night cry out loud “Oh God, please let me die!” As the old saying goes, “Beware of what you ask for, lest you get it”.

  • For those (very few)that want to know more about white supremacy and the coming negro genocide in Africa and the Southern US:

    Note the comment at about 5:10 where the propaganda session attributes a quote to Albert Schweitzer, the ‘German missionary and philosopher’, “One must look at the negro, not as one’s equal, but as a child. A black man has the intelligence level of a 14 year old white boy.”

    Pretty sickening.

    Well, Albert also said: “Man has lost the capacity to foresee and to forestall, he will end by destroying the world.” Was he referring to the white man??

    Humanity has come a long way in its insanity in a mere 14,000 years or so, of millions of years of existence. I guess Industrial Civilization is a good thing or else we would not have one bit of justice. Best to do away with us.

    Cheers!

  • The latest Hopium from Harvard !

  • Ed, I can see the way you’re seeing it, mostly. The thing I don’t understand is when the desire to improve our conditions arose. Or is that an aspect of human nature and been with us forever?

    I think such a desire is related to the tendency to seek control. I’m not sure this tendency is universally human across space (7.3 B humans today) or time (2 Million years or 200,000 years of anatomically similar humans)

    I do think our desire to do better has landed us in trouble. At one point, the people who had this desire were few and far between, under the watchful gaze of the many. But over time, the few have been able to convince the many that it is natural for all of us to want to seek control over our condition, to better ourselves and to rise above our circumstances. kevin moore knows what I’m talking about, perhaps.

    Kirk, absolutely! it takes one to see one. Checked-out people see each other on the street and wink.

  • I’ve posted anew. Please refresh to view the latest essay.

  • Thank goodness Hindu sages solved all the problems that could possibly arise in our world, or any other conceivable dimension for that matter. No need for us to worry our little heads about anything whatever. Just look it up in the appropriate Veda, or Purana, or Upanishad or Gita – and you have your answer.

    Of course there is a problem. The sages and pundits and gods disagree with each other. We could seek a wise guru to sort it all out, but then the gurus all vary in their interpretations. If we could just get the one true teaching, then all we would have to do is slavishly follow it, and all would be well… Or would it?

  • mike k, there are no universal answers, only personal ones. The work for me has been to develop enough self-confidence to simply say “No thanks” when universal solutions are offered.

    It doesn’t matter if the origin of the offering is religion, philosophy or science – I provisionally accept those parts that fit with my unfolding worldview, and provisionally reject the parts that don’t. Periodically I comb through everything I’ve accepted or rejected, and look to see if my relationship to it has changed.

    If someone insists that an idea is universal, that’s their problem, not mine. It’s usually just a sign of their own insecurity in the face of the world’s complexity. And yes, the same applies to my previous insistence about thermodynamic influences on human social behaviour.

  • @Satish,

    Given that early hominids learned to use fire perhaps 2 million years ago – well before Homo sapiens evolved – and judging from all of recorded and inferred human behaviour, I suspect the desire to improve our conditions has been with us forever. I think it’s part of the genetic survival imperative of all life. Our problem-solving brains have simply allowed us to elaborate and extend that primal urge far beyond the ability of the biosphere to provide for it.

  • @Paul C. – My remarks above were loosely aimed in Robin’s direction. And I did not mean to imply that his viewpoint is only limited to Indian scriptural pronouncements, but he can sometimes sound a bit dogmatic, even if basically he’s not.

    I admire your openness Paul, I guess because I try to do the same. Always question everything. If nothing else it makes life more interesting and creative. Certainty engenders boredom. Journeying into the unknown is more exciting, and often rewarding as well….

  • Canoe Monster Says:
    April 17th, 2015 at 11:33 pm

    The latest Hopium from Harvard !

    ==================================
    Indeed.

    Time for them to take the kid gloves off and realize:

    2.4 Resources Threatened by Sea Level Rise

    In any given area, rising seas pose a threat to many different types of resources. Among the vulnerable coastal systems are transportation facilities such as roadways, airports, bridges, and mass transit systems; electric utility systems and power plants; stormwater systems and wastewater treatment plants and outfalls; groundwater aquifers; wetlands and fisheries; and many other human and natural systems from homes to schools, hospitals, and industry. Any impacts on resources within the affected area may lead to secondary impacts elsewhere.

    3,2 … Facilities At Risk [@ 1 m/3 ft. SLR]

    Schools … 60 … Healthcare facilities … 29 … Fire stations … 10 … Police stations … 8 … hazardous material sites … 208 … buildings … 49,000 … lives … 220,000

    3.4.2 Ports

    Our assessment of future flood risk with sea level rise shows significant flooding is possible at the Port of Oakland. The San Francisco and Oakland airports are also vulnerable to flooding with sea level rise. In addition to directly affecting port operations, sea level rise may cause other interruptions to goods movement at ports. Sea level rise can reduce bridge clearance, thereby reducing the size of ships able to pass or restricting their movements to times of low tide. Higher seas may cause ships to sit higher in the water, possibly resulting in less efficient port operations (National Research Council 1987). These impacts are highly site specific, and somewhat speculative, requiring detailed local study. We also note the connection between possible direct impacts of sea level rise on the ports themselves and possible flooding of transportation (rail and road) corridors to and from the ports.

    4.1 Conclusions

    Rising sea levels will be among the most significant impacts of climate change …

    We estimate that sea level rise will put 220,000 [people at risk] … with a 1.0 m … rise in sea levels … A wide range of critical infrastructure, such as roads, hospitals, schools, emergency facilities, wastewater treatment plants, power plants, and wetlands is also vulnerable. In addition … property is at risk … with a 1.0 … m rise in sea levels …

    (TEST: multiply the individuals in that 1 area who must move, by the number of ports … 220,000 × 4,764 = 1,048,080,000 … if moving over a billion people does not convince us, then multiply each of those figures, for each item, schools, healthcare facilities, fire stations, police stations, hazardous material sites, and buildings, etc., by 4,764).

    (The Evolution of Models – 5)

    When the 1m or 3 ft. SLR will take place is estimated to happen between 2030 and 2067, depending on the rate of acceleration of ice sheet melt and/or collapse, ending with flow into the oceans.

  • Canoe Monster Says:
    April 17th, 2015 at 11:33 pm

    The latest Hopium from Harvard !

    —-

    They are talking about moving the needle. But the clock is broken.