Edge of Extinction: Lack of Habitat for Humans in the Very Near Future

McPherson’s latest book is illustrated and senior-authored by Pauline Schneider. Ms. Ladybug and Mr. Honeybee: A Love Story at the End of Time can be ordered from the publisher here and also from Amazon. Trailer is embedded below.

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Looking for San Francisco Bay Area folks to raise $$$$ to bring Guy to San Francisco. Please contact amyvegan@gmail.com if you are willing to donate towards Guy’s travel here.

Also seeking vegan folks to brainstorm the creation of 100% vegan urban community in or near Portland, Oregon along the light rail line.
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Catch Nature Bats Last on the radio with Mike Sliwa and Guy McPherson. To catch us live, tune in every Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. Eastern time, or catch up in the archives here. If you prefer the iTunes version, including the option to subscribe, you can click here.
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Please visit the DONATIONS tab. I’m open to non-monetary donations, subject only to your creativity. For example, I would appreciate your generosity with respect to frequent-flyer miles.
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McPherson’s first book published in 2015 is co-authored by Carolyn Baker. The Second, Revised edition of Extinction Dialogs: How to Live with Death in Mind is available. Electronic copy is available here from Amazon.

Comments 108

  • You see wasn`t i right ?! There is no need for Mr(or is she a mss maybe a ms or a sissy?!…or just silly ?! ) Dredd to dread (no pun intended) SLR Or SLC we all be dead before the sea rises

  • Latest book and documentary.
    ‘The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science’.



    http://www.drtimball.com

    Debate between Dr Tim Ball and Elizabeth May
    Scroll down to Ian Jessop part 1
    http://www.cfax1070.com/Podcasts

  • I see Guy has once again disturbed the BAU hornet’s nest again eh?

    Good for you Guy! Keep on keepin’ on.

  • RE: latest comment (the Ball dude) that was put through; is this a joke?
    Guy, are you trying to get us more depressed than usual and in need of grief counseling?
    Any chance of vaporizing deniers?

  • Etyerepetyere Says:
    August 19th, 2015 at 7:53 am

    You see wasn`t i right ?! There is no need for Mr(or is she a mss maybe a ms or a sissy?!…or just silly ?! ) Dredd to dread (no pun intended) SLR Or SLC we all be dead before the sea rises
    =======================================
    Eerie Ass,

    Then you died a long time ago.

    SLR is approaching 2 ft. off the coast of Washington D.C., if it isn’t there already per the 128mm surge in two years.

    Even though your bros in S. Carolina made a law saying it could only rise 8 inches (Social Dementia Causes Heated Misunderestimations – 2, quoting Scientific American).

    Historically, according to science, not your daddy Inhofe and his daddy Koch, SLR has risen a meter “in a few years or less” (The Surge: A Forgotten Aspect of Sea Level Rise, quoting NASA GISS).

    You are very right … wing … where is your death bro pat … out in the garage sniffing gas from the tail pipe?

    You like gas?

    “May the south end of a north bound camel breathe upon you my son.”

  • decoding the Ball video, he basically says, he picks his nose, eats the boogers, therefore, no AGW

  • Wow, the “Balls” on that guy for posting that tripe.

  • I totally agree with ogardener’s comment above at 8:54am.

    For those that are interested here is just a snippet of background on Dr. Ball.

    On September 1st, Ball launched a libel suit against Dr. Dan Johnson and the Calgary Herald over a letter the paper ran on April 23, 2006. Johnson is a Professor of Environmental Science at the University of Lethbridge.
    Ball had written an article that attacked the qualifications of renowned climate change author Tim Flannery, in which the Herald described Ball as “the first climatology PhD in Canada and … a professor of climatology at the University of Winnipeg for 28 years.”

    Johnson’s letter to the editor challenged those details, noting that when Ball received his PhD (in Geography) in 1983, “Canada already had PhDs in climatology and it is important to recognize them and their research.” Johnson also pointed out that Ball had been a professor for a much shorter time (Ball later admitted eight years), during which Ball did “not show any evidence of research regarding climate and atmosphere.”
    The Calgary Herald’s Statement of Defence, filed with the Alberta Court of Queen’s Bench, dismissed Ball’s credibility saying that “The Plantiff (Dr. Ball) is viewed as a paid promoter of the agenda of the oil and gas industry rather than as a practicing scientist.”
    Ball subsequently dropped his lawsuit.

    Enough said on that.
    The ice is still melting and the methane monster is still growing larger every day.

  • Here’s the lowdown on Tim Slimeball, dripping with oil industry backing.
    http://www.desmogblog.com/timothy-f-ball-tim-ball

  • It might be easier to take Dr. Ball seriously had I not read his Wikipedia page…

    On another note, I’m wondering if the whole “post-9/11 increase in global average temperature due to reduced global dimming” can be proven to be something other than an anomaly? I hesitate to attribute it to the lack of contrails since that’s kind of difficult to verify. Just because it happened once doesn’t mean it’s because of the lack of airplanes in the sky. Seems like we would have to repeat the experiment (not the 9-11 part! Just the grounding of the flights part). Obviously we’re not going to ground all flights just to test the theory. Someone please explain to me why I’m off base here.

  • @Robert Callahan: Jeez Belize.

    Not where I would want to go to wait out the apocalypse, personally.

    http://siliconangle.com/blog/2014/03/20/john-mcafee-belize-pirates/

  • “The Plantiff (Dr. Ball) is viewed as a paid promoter of the agenda of the oil and gas industry rather than as a practicing scientist.”

    Why am I not surprised?

    I tried to watch a little bit of his video, but his army of straw men kept bursting into flames and distracting me.

    His style certainly was clear.

    Whip up anger with irrelevant discourse on wealth inequality …
    … and then toss out the word ‘environmentalist.’

    Whip up anger in the boys in the room with irrelevant discourse on feminism …
    … and then toss out the word ‘environmentalist.’

    Whip up more anger with irrelevant shot at David Suzuki’s lifestyle …
    … and then toss out the word ‘environmentalist.’

    What do any of those points have to with refuting the science of AGW?

    Then I stopped watching.

    However, it’s amazing well how this sort of bullshit works on some people.

    ”Hell Jimbob, dem tings are all the same. Let’s go git our shotguns!”

  • Guy makes two bold world shattering statements in the video above – both as bold & world shattering as any he has ever made.

    At the outset he says; “We could experience a 3 degree global temperature rise in a matter of days or weeks.”

    At the end he says; “… all habitat for humanity is removed in a matter of days or weeks.”

    He supports his abrupt “tomorrow-time-line” contention with two compelling reasons.

    1. A dramatic reduction in dimming from the coming collapse of industrial civilization.

    2. A rapid ramping up of global temp from off loaded heat from the developing monster El Nino.

    If we add abrupt Arctic methane release as a third major causal link to a “tomorrow-time-line” probability, we are faced with another “this changes everything.”

    Guy’s “tomorrow-time-line” is not far-fetched in the least.

    Guy’s tomorrow scenario dramatically departs from Gavin Schmidt’s long term gradualist scenario.

    I have been completely committed to an emphasis on “abrupt” in abrupt climate change since I absorbed Semiletov & Shakhova’s earliest work in 2007.

    But Guy’s contention that we could see such a dramatic temp spike & habitat loss in days or weeks is very difficult for me to accept.

    Previously, I considered 2018 as an earliest possible time line for pervasive climatic hell to break loose, but at a global temp increase of “only” 2.0 C.

    There is no question that bizarre climate disruptions are escalating so rapidly that new empirical facts promptly make today’s models obscenely obsolete.

    If Guy’s 3 degrees C. increase in days or weeks contention is borne out, it will literally turn preposterously abrupt science “fiction” into factual ABRUPT extinction.

    So, the earliest & boldest scientific prognosticator will have called the most perverse objective reality correctly, but there won’t be any time or desire left for any existential prizes or proposals for sustainability.

  • Well, there is no sign of industrial civilization collapsing. Again, faulty logic on guys part. Can he really keep this up for another 30 years?

  • Kurt writes, “Well, there is no sign of industrial civilization collapsing. Again, faulty logic on guys part.”

    Are you really so clueless you cannot detect any of the myriad signs of industrial civilization collapsing? If so, you’re in for big surprise. More likely, though, you a paid troll.

    Kurt and Gerald Spezio could stand to read this essay again, from a few weeks ago. Apparently your memories are short.

  • A bit of somme humor for you, in these days of “the long dark tea-time of the soul” {Douglas Adams}

    Two soldiers talking
    #1st soldier

    “Christ mate, I’ve lost my leg”

    #2nd soldier

    “No you haven’t mate, it’s over there”

    We are in the Age of stupid

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZjsJdokC0s

  • I’ve stopped reading books – this is my own policy to keep my sanity in these last days. No need, is there?

    I listen to Ga Public Radio (GPR) . (BTW, how the hell did the State of Georgia end up with about 15-20 radio stations covering the entire State?) There is a lady by the name of Celeste Headley, who was trained to belt out soprano songs, and is a sensational journalists too. Every day ( the program is ‘On Second Thought’) she has 3 to 4 interesting topics that boggle the mind. On the 17th of August, she interviewed a History Prof. who has just published a new book on the Creek Indian Removal. Boy does it tell the truth in sordid detail.

    I read about a new book on CounterPunch today that is about an original Hip Hop artist that I would love to read.

    What’s the use? Anything that does interest me is about the same old same old. Exploitation of people, black, white, red, yellow and poor. Aurelius and countless others know this and nothing is ever done about it in a meaningful fashion. It is sort of like CHARITY, just another lottery. Besides, what’s the use of reading the same stuff over and over about another group that was peed upon, some worse than others?????

    I have taken to learning the play an instrument. Paid 10 buckeroos. Was it worth it. Well, hell yeah. Where has this person been all my life? I’m having a ball thinking that justice is going to finally win. It is about time.

    One more thing: Golf is the most ridiculous sport of all time. I heard the other day, from one of the insipid paid announcers that India has one of the oldest golf clubs in existence like that is something special. No shit. They had to have something to set the imperialists apart from the untouchables below them.

    Back to having fun with my animals and our home.

    Screw Tom Ball, what an asshole bully, just like all the rest.

  • Please dont stop reading books shep. i reccomend fareenhiet 451, that tells of what happens when you stop reading

  • @ Haydukes

    Sorry for the delayed response, I’m terribly busy at this time of the year.

    You state:

    “Ultimately, I’m not much interested in recitations about all the bad news. I’m most interested in personal tales we have to share. How we may end up dying is, and will be, in the final analysis a personal and private affair. But how we are coping and living today is what counts in my opinion.”

    Well it seems we are of like minds, at least where it concerns what we’re interested in at this moment in time, it’s just that I include the ‘dying process’ as now being a critical part of how we are “…coping and living today…”

    I might go so far as to say, I’m no longer interested in ‘how we live’, but rather ‘how we die’, given that’s the one thing we all now have in common in way never before.

    Having spent almost three decades obsessively cataloging anomalous phenomena to the point it’s no longer anomalous, I couldn’t agree with you more that it’s our individual responses to NTE at this new juncture, which mostly captures my attention. In other words, how are we emotionally coping with the meta-dying process we’ve only fairly recently come to intellectually accept to be inevitable?

    Once the survivalist fervor runs its course, and we accept that not only will we not survive, but we most likely wouldn’t want to even if we could, I believe a shift of priorities takes place which ultimately alters not only our values but behavior….how could it not? Our entire perception changes even though the narrative remains more or less the same, kind of like coming to look at the same object just from a different angle.

    All the data and evidence served a purpose up to a point, for me, it provided the necessity for taking action and a life’s worth of resistance. All the evidence served as a proactive means of living an alternative lifestyle, long focused on advocating for an ecological value shift, then eventually onto collapse preparedness. Again, for me it was both the moral and logical way to live, because prior to 2009 climate data, I as well as most everyone, still believed abrupt climate change would be superseded by energy scarcity and economic collapse, which I considered were both “survivable”, as well as necessary in preventing abrupt climate change…..ah, it all sounds so foolishly naive to me now just six years later.

    The need to inform and be informed lost it poignancy simply because the information is now so dire it’s become self-defeating given we no longer need to make long term plans, and in a hyper future oriented culture such as ours that basically changes everything by default.

    The specific details contributing to NTE means less to me as the days pass, I intentionally no longer choose to reference others as I once did; annotation just seems like a form of holding onto a past concept of inferred self-importance that no longer has any relevance. I simply no longer seek to impress or be impressed with mine or others understanding of how the world works. One can either can see NTE for themselves or not, and if they can’t there isn’t much point in spelling it out, given the litany of reasons for why others refuse to see.

    From my perspective, all we’ve left is a series of incredibly personal questions that so thoroughly transgresses western social mores, they can barely be discussed even on a blog dedicated to the extinction of all of life on earth.

    What am I living for now?
    How am I being hypocritical?
    What’s the meaning of morality in absence of human agency?
    What’s a better way to live: Holding onto the necessity of making money, or letting go and slipping into destitution and an early self-death?
    Who should I attempt to reach out to and explain my perspective?
    How should I go about it?
    What am I waiting for before I decide what to do next?
    Is it even possible to “live” with NTE in mind?
    What worldwide phenomena would portend circumstances I would choose not to live through?
    Will I wait for that moment to arrive, or will I opt out once the money’s gone?

    For those so inclined
    One soon finds
    The philosophical mind
    Has tragically found it’s time

  • Ah, the old paid troll argument. No, I’m not. Collapse is a huge deal. As long as that oil keeps coming out of the ground, no collapse. No sign of it ending yet. Will there be a slowdown and a new equilibrium point? Absolutely. Will population decrease? Absolutely. But you can’t make a good argument for total collapse because there isn’t one. Hence, the extension to nthe is just an example of poor logic. Even so, the whole argument that it gets real hot and then all the nuclear reactors fail makes no sense as well. But, I admire your persistence and I enjoy the comments of the cult.

  • Kindle a spark rather than piss on a bonfire

  • i should have thought more about that metaphor, lol

  • Kurt, you’re missing the big picture. Completely. And apparently you’re not a reader.

    The system teeters on the brink. Nobody’s in charge of the system. Only you are in charge of yourself.

    Crude plus condensate peaked nearly a decade ago. “Tight” oil is keeping the balls in the air. And it’s not profitable at current oil prices.

    Those who believe this unsustainable set of living arrangements can be sustained beyond a few more years are deluded, as even the Pentagon admits openly. Contrary evidence is welcome. But trolls don’t ever provide evidence, do they?

  • DANIEL: “Once the survivalist fervor runs its course, and we accept that not only will we not survive, but we most likely wouldn’t want to even if we could, I believe a shift of priorities takes place which ultimately alters not only our values but behavior….how could it not? Our entire perception changes even though the narrative remains more or less the same, kind of like coming to look at the same object just from a different angle.”

    Daniel, so true, for me it has manifested in a profound (and sometime almost constant) stillness – I just don’t need to know any more about anything – unless I choose to, for whatever reason. There is a stillness in the air, a sense of waiting, of the baited breath before the deep inhalation that prepares one for the plunge.
    This has even manifested (as I found out the other day in the local pharmacy) in a lowered blood pressure (98).
    Question is what are we awaiting, and what will that deep inhalation prime us to jump into.
    Then the chills.

  • Again, DANIEL, wow, I couldn’t agree more (not that me agreeing with you signifies anything whatsoever):
    And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
    The way to dusty death – a tale
    Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
    Signifying nothing.

    “From my perspective, all we’ve left is a series of incredibly personal questions that so thoroughly transgresses western social mores, they can barely be discussed even on a blog dedicated to the extinction of all of life on earth.

    What am I living for now?
    How am I being hypocritical?
    What’s the meaning of morality in absence of human agency?
    What’s a better way to live: Holding onto the necessity of making money, or letting go and slipping into destitution and an early self-death?
    Who should I attempt to reach out to and explain my perspective?
    How should I go about it?
    What am I waiting for before I decide what to do next?
    Is it even possible to “live” with NTE in mind?
    What worldwide phenomena would portend circumstances I would choose not to live through?
    Will I wait for that moment to arrive, or will I opt out once the money’s gone?

    For those so inclined
    One soon finds
    The philosophical mind
    Has tragically found it’s time.”

  • At least Californians have a physical reason for that sinking feeling.https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/19/california-sinking-groundwater-pumped-drought

  • Ten thousand years ago, humans entered paradise, not always easy, but easier than it had ever been like for-fucking-ever. When things went bad, the tough got going, going out to kill their neighbor for food. This is a fundamental characteristic of much of humanity. But, it only takes 40% of humanity to ruin it for all. The European and American refugee crises illustrates the very extreme thin edge of this wedge.

    That wedge being the incomprehensible violence our youth will see. We can wish for a solar powered Kunstler-like Hobbit Shire, but Planet Zombies will run right over Jerusalem’s walls. The only vaccine will be death.

    Soon before everything goes south big time, the very rich will understand that killing the “POOR” will be their only solution, the final solution. Just imagine Donald Trump in an existential crisis. He’ll make Hitler look like a wuss.

    When I was homeless, I saw unspeakable violence, the only thing worse than the homeless were the sexual predators who purported to “help” them. Common folks would know these types as shrinks, social workers etc. I spent 20 years publishing a homeless newspaper, the only people who gave me hope were the customers who supported our vendors. The vendors themselves were colourful hucksters. But like I said, we only need less than half the world to lose it.

    When poverty strikes 40% of people, it all goes to shit and people who you thought were nice will shock the hell out of you, and you know it.

    The U.S. sold its national grain reserves for money in the financial crash of ’08 and when Bobby and Suzy can’t eat because they spent all their money driving and slurping pop… well, let’s just say you ain’t gonna like it.

    Guns will rule, until all the bullets are gone. That’s when the clubs come out. And, that’s when it’s time to really serve humans, the other white meat. The Aztecs thought pork tasted just like humans. Mmmmm. Humans!

    If you want to survive, opioids will be the new American diamonds, and while diamonds are for heifers, nothing lasts forever, except mass extinction. We won’t be coming back period, exclamation mark. No matter what Stephen Hawking thinks.

  • Guy, we very much appreciate your efforts to promulgate the truth about our dire predicament. That said, I must remind you to think very carefully about what you say.

    In the recently-linked video you described the oceans as batteries for carbon dioxide and heat. Yes, carbon dioxide and heat do enter and exit the oceans. Unfortunately, you then went on to say something which is COMPLETELY WRONG. You said that release of heat from the oceans causes global average temperature to rise quite suddenly.

    Now, by definition, a global average must include all components weighted appropriately according to mass or proportion of the whole, and a transfer of heat from one component to another -say from the ocean to the atmosphere- cannot alter the average heat content; one component loses joules and another gains joules. The overall heat content remains the same.

    Indeed, a transfer of heat from the oceans to the atmosphere is very likely to lead to a fall in average temperature, since the atmosphere transfers heat energy into space much faster than the oceans do.

    There is much confusion relating to average temperatures simply because of lack of data. Humans, being primarily land based but living in the lowest portion of the atmosphere, have concerned themselves with observing and recording air temperatures. Air is not dense and has a very low heat capacity compared to most solids and liquids. Water has an extraordinarily high heat capacity, and a given quantity of heat will raise the temperature of a given volume of air (at STP) much more than the same volume of water.

    The whole matter is further complicated by the fact that water molecules at the surface can escape into the atmosphere, transferring heat energy to the atmosphere (and commensurately lowering the temperature of the ocean/sea). Coalescing of water molecule in the atmosphere releases heat energy to other molecules in the air, raising the temperature. That heat would tend to be lost to space.

    A further complication arises when we consider soil temperatures. How far down should we go in order to obtain a meaningful average? Whereas surface soil loses heat to space (particularly on cloudless nights), temperatures tend to rise the further one descends into the Earth as a consequence of the continuous heating that results from radioactive decay.

    Although considerable advancement has been made in assessing global temperatures, I am still very dubious of figures quoted as ‘averages’.

    There is no question that the deep oceans are warming, and that much of the incoming energy is causing phase change -the melting of glaciers and ice sheets etc. Thermal expansion and phase change will result in spectacular rises in sea level over coming decades.

    On the matter of Global Dimming, I grew up in England and took grey skies as being normal. Coming to New Zealand in 1974, one of the first requirements was a pair of sun glasses. The light level in NZ was (and still is) substantially higher than in England, a literally blindingly bright, compared to what I was used to.

    In retrospect, the grey skies of England were probably anomalous, and were to some extent a product of atmospheric pollution circling the Northern Hemisphere, having been released from factories across America, Europe and Russia.

    I do recall one time leaving London in June (start of summer) and arriving in Auckland (start of winter) shortly after. Temperatures were similar. London was grey and dismal. Auckland was bright and sunny.

    The aspect of sunniness is more important than most people realise. Water molecules ‘hold on to one another’ in an extraordinary manner (without hydrogen bonding there would be no life on Earth) and evaporation is dependent on light level as well as temperature; photon ‘kick’ water molecules out of the lattice.

    The atmosphere has been increasingly displaced from normal since the Industrial Revolution, and what we all grew up with was not normal (the phenomenon of baseline shift being important there). In conversation with a librarian I was advised of comment made in the late 1800s or early 1900s (can’t remember who) about the change in climate that had occurred in Taranaki as a consequence of the mass felling of trees (to make way for sheep and dairy farms).

    I’d like to remind everyone that the Earth cools every 12 hours, and that clearer skies tend to increase the rate of cooling. Also, the hotter the Earth becomes, the faster it will radiate heat into space (all other factors being equal). In reality we are inn uncharted territory, having created conditions that have never existed on Earth before.

    The effect of the loss of ice in the Arctic Sea and adjacent land masses is still not entirely clear. Sure, open water will allow more heat energy to be absorbed. But by the same token, at night and in the early stages of winter, lack of ice will result in more heat being lost to space. After major summer ice-loss, we can expect rapid formation of new ice. This will undoubtedly be touted by denialists as evidence for ‘global cooling’, ice never forming at a faster pace in recorded history, such is their deviousness.

    All this knowledge and discussion is of no use whatsoever, of course, because the people who make the decisions that affect our lives are scientifically illiterate and care only about acquisition of fiat currency and power.

    Although the maniacs in control do their best to terminate life on Earth as quickly as possible, Gaia still works to preserve it.

  • DANIEL,

    What a great list of questions to ponder. Thanks for bringing them to my attention.
    Now I will need to spend some time coming up with answers for myself.

  • Pork, the other white meat.

    The good news is that once we routinely start eating each other, racism will largely disappear because we’re all white on the inside.

  • Kevin, every El Niño so far has been accompanied by a rapid rise in temperature, according to measurements. Are you saying this time is different?

  • R.C. – I believe folk wisdom holds that “we’re all pink on the inside”. It’s only after cooking that the meat gets white.

  • So hard to fathom this actually happening, but quick seems potentially better than slow and, well, c’est sera! As you can see, I’m burned out on NTHE!

  • The two-posts-per-day rule is still in effect. If you’re a jerk, fewer is much better.

  • ‘What’s the meaning of morality in absence of human agency?’

    daniel (the name evokes the elton john song), i just finished reading daniel quinn’s auto-bio. for the 2nd time earlier today. near it’s end, he addresses that very question, i think, with his concept of ‘takers’ and leavers’. in case u don’t know, ‘takers’ refers to civilized sheeple who think they’ve been given by god or by agency of our supposed advanced knowledge and technology, basically the right to take control of that which used to be the domain of ‘god'(s), or nature, that is, control of this world (‘leavers’, otoh were/are ‘primitive’ people who don’t assume such responsibility, recognizing their impotence/limits). obviously, quinn now aligns with the ‘leaver’ mentality, as i suspect a large majority of ‘doomers’ also do.

    what does this have to do with ‘morality’? well, imo ‘morality’ is a concept derived mostly from the ‘taker’ mentality, which perhaps in it’s ‘best’ manifestation urges us to be good responsible stewards of nature (including our own human nature). if one rejects this concept also (as i do), one is left with essentially no ‘morality’, only ethics, ethics which change with circumstances (no doubt our circumstances shall change fairly drastically fairly soon).

    ever since i metamorphosed into a radical freethinker and embraced my inherent ‘free-love’ nature, i’ve grown to despise ‘morality’, given it’s usual connection to dogmatic puritanical religion, religion designed imo to promote fear, shame, ignorance, bigotry, repression… now, i hate the word, if not the total concept behind it. but i digress…

    so what about morality/ethics, in the face of our entrapment in a clueless, crazy, cruel, and doomed culture? that’s a tough one. i guess, my advice is to remain humble like a good ‘leaver’ should, recognizing your impotency to change much, and the very trickiness/danger in trying to change anything besides your own mind/behavior. for example, trying to inform/enlighten/’wake up!’ others to our plight. it’s such a dilemma to me, a case of necessity vs. impossibility, seasoned with awareness/fear that upsetting the lives of others will produce blowback…

    i say live as best u can to enjoy life now, of course within the boundaries of your own sense of ‘morality’. try to remember that the ‘bad guys’ (the clueless, crazy, and cruel) are doomed too… i just thought of an amerikan ‘country’ song by tim mcgraw, he wrote about his father, facing his own mortality from having terminal cancer. i think the advice given, the sentiment expressed, are applicable here:

  • Definitely interesting to hear a different point of view from Dr. Ball. I’d like to point out on the third video at around 30:28 he shows a graph of the temperature anomaly with a red line showing a downward trend from the last major El Nino event. He says that this shows there was cooling after this event. Yes of course, but the temperature anomaly ends in 2013, but is still higher than the lowest point in 1965. I question how many points that red trend line was based on. You only need two points to create a straight line. What’s the standard deviation of this trend?

  • paul marcotte

    You sure know how to research a reputation with a blowtorch !

    Martin
    Re:
    “i should have thought more about that metaphor, lol”

    Very funny bro.

    Peter

    too late? never too late till all the balls stop rolling-and old pool analogy. Even with the black sunk, the white ball must stop before game over!

    ‘boomerang pool scene’

    but here we go with a more together message….

    ‘Queen – Under Pressure’

    Ony way is love…

    😉

  • Guy, I’m saying what you said in the video is not correct, even if others ay the same thing. Transfer of heat from one portion of the Earth to another does not alter the average heat content or the true average temperature.

    This is a little like the ‘effect of carbon dioxide isn’t felt for decades’ argument. Misinterpretation of a report discussing a ‘burp’ of CO2 led to broad generalisations which were not correct. The effect of carbon dioxide is both instantaneous and cumulative.

    Then we had the matter of the correct multiplier for methane: ‘everyone’ said it was 32 tines CO2 until it was revised to 34 times CO2. Neither figure applies in time scales that matter, and even the 72 times CO2, which got revised to 86 times CO2 is incorrect for time scales that matter. Many people still use the well-redundant 23 times CO2, such is the abysmally slow rate of transfer of knowledge.

    The world is awash with misinformation and misinterpretation.

    I an not saying air temperatures will not rise if heat shifts from the ocean to the atmosphere; of course they will. But that is not the point of my comment. Ocean temperature goes down and air temperature goes up, so ‘everyone’ says it’s hotter.

    I believe the crux of the problem is that people refer to AVERAGE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES as being AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE or as GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. They are not the same thing. In fact, despite he assertions of meteorologists and others, nobody actually knows what the average global temperature of the Earth is. To determine that we would have to litter the depths of the oceans and lakes and all points between with temperature probes and recorders.

    Infra-red spectrometers can be used to determine the apparent temperature of the surface of the Earth, but as I said previously, surface temperature measurements in themselves are not necessarily indicative of temperatures a little deeper. This is particularly trues in permafrost regions, where temperatures below the surface may be considerably colder or considerably warmer than on the surface, depending on location and time of year.

    What actually matters is the total heat content of the entire system and the heat balance. Adding billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere every year ahs severely disturbed the heat balance, and the system is geared to keep adding billions of tonnes every year (is it still 35 billion tonnes per annum?), and temperatures will tend to rise until a new in-out equilibrium is reached. Adding CO2 continuously implies equilibrium will never be reached. Even if industrial civilisation were to collapse this coming October, humans would continue to add CO2 to the atmosphere faster than nature can remove it…..until die-off.

    One of the most difficult aspects to model is the behaviour of clouds and their effect on heat balance. Daytime cloud tends to reflect heat and light back into space, thereby reducing warming: night-time cloud tends to reflect heat downwards and reduce cooling.

    Now if anyone can prove me wrong on this I’d be happy to be proven wrong. Just saying I’m wrong doesn’t count.

  • Damn. I gave up drinking alcohol for this? Damn.

  • Kevin,
    Your last point about clouds is correct,but I think there has been close to unanimous agreement for several years that the net effect of more water vapour in the atmosphere will result in greater warming,not less.
    Also, if industrial civilisation did collapse,(implying a cessation of fossil fuel use),why do you think humans would continue to add CO2 to the atmosphere at a greater rate than nature could remove it?

  • There are a lot of cheatin’ scumbuckets who aren’t sleeping well tonight.

    The Ashley Madison hackers have dropped their payload, and apparently published the ENTIRE database. I do believe that not a few of these 37 million folks are going to be facing near term extinction, even before the planet heats up. Their home lives are going to heat up plenty!

    Now…here’s the thing. In a complex, industrial civilization type of environment, there’s typically not much downside to cheating, above and beyond the anthropogenic global warming hell you might catch from a spouse. Of course, if you’re in active duty military, or on the government payroll, your job is at risk too.

    But all this is small, and very civilized, beer.

    In a tribal society, if you violate the socio-sexual contracts (whatever they might be), you don’t get off so easy. The act of adultery is considered an egregious crime against the tribe, and the perpetrators are treated like criminals. Punishment is typically swift and draconian.

    So when I hear folks saying that they think we should revert back to tribal societies, I can’t help but think, “Be careful what you wish for”. You might have some gauzy romantic picture of that life, but it just ain’t that way, most of the time.

  • Daniel,

    In your reply to Haydukes you said

    that you “no longer intentionally choose to reference others”.

    I feel that I must reference you though, really your entire comment because it describes the process I went through too. We seem to be at a similar stage, and that makes me feel “soul-related” to people like you (I hope you don’t mind, it must be my female nature which needs to connect) and some of the others here.

    These personal things should be talked about on NBL. If not here, where else – before it’s too late.

    Thanks for being so eloquent. You’re a rare human being.

  • Same old lies on NBL. Week after week, year after year.

    Contrails aren’t causing global dimming

  • david higham.

    ‘Also, if industrial civilisation did collapse,(implying a cessation of fossil fuel use),why do you think humans would continue to add CO2 to the atmosphere at a greater rate than nature could remove it?’

    I believe that people in cold regions will burn anything that does burn in order to stay warm and cook food. I suspect all the municipal parks, copses and forests would be chopped down and burned in densely populated regions, and when they ran out, tyres, plastic, furniture, who knows what will be burned. I suspect that closed-down coal mines will be reopened, and the last scraps of combustible material picked out of the rubble and burned.

    I think people in places like Ireland would dig up peat and burn it to stay warm and cook food, rather than be cold and hungry.

    In warmer locations I suspect people will chop down trees for fuel, even if they are the last in the vicinity. Isn’t that what already happens in places like Chad?

    On top of the human destruction of CO2 sequesterers, there is the matter of fires destroying forest like never been seen before. The raging fires in the US and Canada of this year appear to be merely a tiny taste of what is to come. I read recently that some of the ‘dampest’ old-growth forests along the west coast have been ablaze recently. And across Siberia. Can we ever think that any of this is going to get better?

    I can imagine people in Canada starved of refined fossil fuels digging up tar sands and setting light to it, (rather than trying to extract kerogen from it).

    I suspect that collapse of industrial civilisation implies a big reduction in carbon desequestration but no necessarily a cessation of carbon desequestration.

    I believe that it will only be after there has been a massive reduction in the human population that sequestration of carbon is at all likely to outpace desequestration. And if Guy and others are right, positive feedbacks already triggered will result in ever more carbon being desequestered and ending up in the atmosphere and oceans for decades to come.

    For more than a decade I have been personally highlighting the extreme danger that excessive carbon dioxide emissions pose in triggering abrupt climate change: ‘nobody’ is interested. People just want their cars and overseas holidays, air conditioners, restaurant meals, festivals, sports trips, and plastic knick-knacks that get thrown away soon after being purchased.

  • Guy, sorry, but there’s no clear sign of a peak yet, even considering just crude&condensate. According to the EIA world production numbers, C&C did not reach an overall peak back in 2005. It has repeatedly reached a number of increasing local maxima since then:

    2005 May: 74360 mbpd
    2008 Jul: 75086 mbpd
    2011 Jan: 75937 mbpd
    2012 Apr: 76626 mbpd
    2014 Feb: 77770 mbpd
    2014 Dec: 79895 mbpd

    There may be a geological peak coming, but then again there may not. IMO there’s more likely to be an economically-generated production peak if the price of crude continues to crater.

    Kurt is wrong as well though, because the global economy is running into trouble even in the presence of constantly rising oil production.

    When there is a dissolution of the Empire of Man, be it fast or slow, it’s more likely to be triggered by economics and finance than Peak Oil. This is because the economy acts so rapidly, and is far more fragile than the oil supply, at least at this time.

    The economic unraveling will have many proximate causes with different degrees of influence from region to region. Each of us will be able to blame our own pet peeve.

  • Of course the units above should be kbpd, not mbpd.

  • Kevin writes: “despite the assertions of meteorologists and others, nobody actually knows what the average global temperature of the Earth is. To determine that we would have to litter the depths of the oceans and lakes and all points between with temperature probes and recorders.”

    I have to ask Kevin since no one lives at the bottom of the ocean, does the temperature there matter? Should we take in account the heat of the Earth’s core to figure out the “average global temperature”? If so, what about the temperatures of the upper atmosphere?

    Or should the average temperature feature where the bulk of the biomass lives? Oh. It does. That’s why it can be measured and recorded. That’s why we can point to a chart and note that the average global temperature is increasing. That’s why we can state 2015 is most likely going to be the hottest year on record — even if you are personally chilly right now.

  • Paul, the peak appears to have been delayed only because the definition changed. C + C now includes some sources previously excluded from C + C.

  • Ah, yes! Definitions change as dictated. A simple way to control us’uns.

  • Grant;

    Unfortunately, the world is not a homogeneous entity, deep water currents are like a snakes and ladders map of the world involving gigatons of water. It takes 4.2 kj of energy to raise 1 cubic centimeter of water 1 degree centigrade,

    How many cubic centimeters are there in a gigaton of water?

    These thing are huge heat pumps processing PETA Joules of energy. They drive our climate and because we have been changing the earths thermodynamics have been acting like a giant battery.

    Mankind’s just a few termites on a dungheap in africa by comparison.

    The termite analogy is quite an interesting one, if one species should become over dominant and begin to change the atmosphere, then the meta system will compensate by eradicating that species

  • Unfortunateley for me, i’m not as daft as i sometimes like to make myself think i am

  • ed, there’s more than meets the eye to the Ashley Madison story (i.e., this week’s Distraction by the Media for the People). Somebody used the name of John Key (New Zealand’s Prime Minister following the lead of Barack Obama and John Harper). John Key is a cheater and a liar — he’s a politician, after all — but in many ways beyond his personal life.

  • Yorchichan, who claimed contrails alone cause global dimming? I constantly refer to industrial activity — all of it — not a single source. Don’t twist the words to match your agenda. Trolls are not welcome here.

  • Came across a 2011 article mentioning that:

    “Models disagree greatly as to when the Arctic Ocean will become free of ice in late summer. There is a clear tendency for more recent forecasts to anticipate this event before 2050⁴.”

    It looks like the science of just 4-5 years ago has massively underestimated the rapidity of global warming. That being the case it’s not hard to imagine further rapid warming far beyond what’s being discussed in mainstream media, which where I live is focused on how all these various heat records are being beat without a thought on how they will continue to be beat in upcoming years.

    http://theconversation.com/loss-of-arctic-sea-ice-dont-let-the-gfc-distract-you-climate-change-is-happening-3527

  • Another flash point to trigger collapse. The Refugees are coming to Racist Europe. That ought to be fun, like shooting ducks in a pond.

    ANDRE VLTCHEK – http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/08/14/the-refugees-are-coming/ounterPunch 8-14-2015 Friday

    I don’t really know, I don’t understand how it feels: to live in a rich European country, which is rich mainly because it has been directly plundering many poor nations around the world. Or it has been plundering by association, through its membership in some extremist organization like NATO. To live there, refusing to acknowledge why it is rich, how it became rich.
    Palaces, theatres, railroads, hospitals and parks in that rich country are built on broken skeletons and restless specters, on lakes of blood and shameless theft.
    Then, when one looted country after another begins to sink, when there is nothing left there, when children begin dying from hunger and when men commence fighting each other over tiny boulders and dirty pieces of turf, pathetic boats, or dinghies, begin crossing the waterways, bringing half starved, half-mad refugees to the European sea-fronts decorated with marble.
    What a horrifying sight! As if a woman, her hair waving in disarray, her lips broken, comes begging a man who raped her after killing her husband – begging for shelter and at least some work and piece of bread. She decided to abandon all her pride, because her children are sick and starving, because it is either this, or death.
    That is what you reduced the world to, Europe – you, and your huge, insatiable offspring – North America!

  • guy,I hope you have a nice day today. don’t take any guff.


  • Who is responsible?

    Cause:

    Civil government, so far as it is instituted for the security of property, is in reality instituted for the defense of the rich against the poor, or of those who have some property against those who have none at all.

    Adam Smith, 1776

    “… but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we are winning.

    – Warren Buffet, CEO, Berkshire Hathaway

    And effect:

    http://tinyurl.com/ohhkvaa

    http://tinyurl.com/nh3o68w

    Winning ???” Bwahahaha.

  • ‘Climate Study: Ending New Federal Fossil Fuel Leases Would Keep
    450 Billion Tons of Carbon Pollution in Ground’

    http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/news/press_releases/2015/greenhouse-gas-emissions-08-19-2015.html

    If anyone has got time to read the report, be my guest.

    Here in Afraidia, we have a lot of offshore Oil Gas and plenty of onshore coal,(and thermal coal). Probably a shitload like the USA.

    Will that stay in the ground, or under the seabed?

    We have a boy prime minister who says coal is good for Afraidia, and humanity.

    ‘Tony Abbott: Boy or man – or maybe just wired differently’

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-boy-or-man–or-maybe-just-wired-differently-20150819-gj2fyj.html

    ‘Coal is ‘good for humanity’, says Tony Abbott at mine opening’

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coal-is-good-for-humanity-says-tony-abbott-at-mine-opening-20141013-115bgs.html

    If we burn all that carbon, we’ll be a…

    ‘Flash And The Pan Down Among The Dead Men’

    For that we would have to get out of the ..

    ‘Driver’s seat’

    Entertainment on the beach of doom, at the end…

    Cheers all

    😉

  • The weather record that was most interesting (though other adjectives would be more pertinent) was the one stating that the average daily temperature so far for this August was 19 degrees F above the historical August average.

  • @ Dredd Says:
    August 19th, 2015 at 8:55 am

    I have never disputed sea level rise .. there will be . except a if a supervolcano goes up or a cosmic superwave cools the planet all in a sudden which is possible or even a comet as a cosmic farce . But read the Title BUDDY

    “Extinction: Lack of Habitat for Humans in the Very Near Future”

    maybe this one , one more for you >

    “Very Near Future”

    what part of “Very Near Future” is hard to understand for you ???!!! there will be not enough time for the sea to rise “before the whole shithouse goes up in flames” concerns should be heat and fire as they are right now … are you watching news ever … or please let me know anyone who has been inconvenienced lately because of sea level rise .. Your sea level rise concern is a NON ISSUE

  • Water from the taps, food in the grocery, gas at the pumps, whats to worry?

  • Every time I visit this blog I am so saddened to see all the atheists, including McPherson, who have no hope. Jesus Christ is either insane or he is god. He can be substantiated personally by every human being because everyone has a human spirit. To substantiate God is through a regenerated human spirit simply by calling upon His name. From that moment on there is demonstrable hope because the intuition has now become functional and its function is to lead one into absolute truth, who is a person, a marvelous God-man who now becomes resident in the human spirit and answers every question and dispels every doubt. This wonderful One also has now become the guaranty of eternal life, and no one nor nothing can obscure nor obviate this reality. Moreover, this is not merely a unique personal substantiation but one that is corporate, made up of all those with the same experience who can be found in small groups called Local Churches according to the convention found in the Bible, which is not only the word of God, it is God. This book leads everyone with a regenerated human spirit into all the truth which is possible for a human to comprehend. It is not God’s intention that anyone should fail to attain to eternal life, not merely eternal existence, which is a terribly lamentable eternal condition.
    There are Local Churches, which are not relative to buildings although buildings are used for meetings, in many cities throughout the world. If you search for “The Church In….(put in the city name)” you may find a listing, although they are not favored by Google. Most localities have websites like “www.churchinhouston.org” or .com. There you will certainly find people who can help one to substantiate the Truth. Jesus said,” I am the resurrection and the life; he who believes into Me, even if he should die, shall live; and everyone who lives and believes into Me shall by no means die forever” John 11.25-26; “I am the way, the reality and the life; no one comes to the Father except through Me.” John14.6.
    Do not let yourself be cheated of eternal life, the real life God intended for all His creatures to experience. Guy McPherson is only a human who denies the existence of God. He just doesn’t know any better although he is erudite in the human things. Sadly, he has a dead spirit because he has not called on the name of the Lord, so he is blind and intending to lead others into this blindness. You don’t have to go there. My hope is that Guy would be saved from eternal death, which is not a termination of existence. It is so simple. “whoever calls on the name of the Lord shall be saved.” Romans 10.13. The time is short.

  • There is a group who have opensourced the plans for a generator of about 10kw which runs on the ether, on the sea of energy (Moray) in which we live, no other fuel input whatsoever. A bit late, but FWIW Google QEG generator; be-do.com

  • Paul Chefurka Says:
    August 20th, 2015 at 5:01 am
    “Guy, sorry, but there’s no clear sign of a peak yet, even considering just crude&condensate. According to the EIA world production numbers, C&C did not reach an overall peak back in 2005. It has repeatedly reached a number of increasing local maxima since then:”

    Guy McPherson Says:
    August 20th, 2015 at 6:22 am
    “Paul, the peak appears to have been delayed only because the definition changed. C + C now includes some sources previously excluded from C + C.”

    Numerous posts all over the Web as to how the change in definitions has made it see as if the peak has been delayed. See particularly Kurt Cobb in Resource Insights, he has repeatedly emphasized this them. http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com

  • I thought the most important metric was “light sweet crude”, not C+C.
    Sweet crude is the enabler of other energies, whether it be condensates, or solar. Sweet crude has the highest, by far, net energy. When the good stuff is in decline, the NET ENERGY for ALL other energy sources MUST go into decline. All that matters is NET ENERGY.

    As an analogy, if your paycheck increases 15% over ten years, but your expenses increase by 50% over the same period, then your overall wealth has declined. Your “net” income is less. Eventually, you won’t be able to bring home the bacon, keep the water & sewer bill paid, the mortgage, the food, tires on the car, medicine, etc.

    Continuing further, if the wife gets a job and brings home another paycheck that boost income by another 35% (fracking) and all the kids get jobs, boosting total household income by another 15%(renewable/solar), then you still won’t have broken even, because now the new income earners need tires for her car, work cloths/uniforms, lunch money, etc.

    Net Energy is what’s left over after you pay your energy expenses, all those upfront costs of energy expenditures that it took to sink the well, dig the tar-sand, bus the roughnecks, & fuel for the dualie pickup trucks. If a solar panel requires more barrels of oil to produce than it can return, it is a net-energy “sink” (they are, photovoltaic doesn’t last forever.)

    Have you ever had a job offer that didn’t offer enough hourly $ to pay for the daily commute? That’s NET ENERGY.

  • Merrill, did it ever cross your mind that “eternal life” might not actually be very appealing? I would assume it to be infinitely boring.

    Even in that crazy book of yours, the only real interest to be had is when there is smiting and gnashing of teeth. If it weren’t for the “ripping yarn” parts, who would even read it? I did notice there is not much in there about all the boring afterlife stuff, no sex, just sitting around and adoring and singing the praises of the psycho-narcissist god character.

    If you can’t get most people into church to praise and adore for 45 minutes a week, even, what makes you think an eternal lifetime of this activity would interest anyone with half a brain?

  • Hamlet, bingo!
    My BIL had a job like that: he barely broke even taking the bus!

  • lack of habitat for compound interest to grow;

    Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) -DJI
    Watchlist
    16,990.82 Down 357.91(2.06%) 4:07PM EDT

  • Kevin,
    Don’t forget that the current human population can only be sustained by industrial agriculture. If we could not sustain the Haber-Bosch process,for example,the population would be reduced to 3 billion within months. (That estimate is from the studies of Vaclav Smil and others).
    That is from the cessation of the Haber-Bosch process alone,so the actual population reduction would be greater than that.
    So there would be the possibility of regrowth of forests in some areas.
    It is true that if the positive feedback loops are well established,their effect would overwhelm the sequestration of carbon.
    I made a comment on the NBL forum over a year ago that the only possibility of avoiding runaway climate disruption and retaining a productive ocean ecosystem would be to stop the use of fossil fuels immediately,and for the surviving population after the resulting huge population reduction to not use fossil fuels at all.
    Maybe I was being optimistic.

  • I spotted a typing error this morning.

    The multiplier for methane was assigned the value 23 (not the 32 I mistyped) until it was revised to 34 ( over 100 years). I am in agreement with Guy that for time frames that matter (less than 10 years) a multiplier of well over 100 times the heat-trapping effect of CO2 should be applied. I am still convinced that the instantaneous is the really significant factor, but ‘no one’ seems interested in determining it -or knows the value but doesn’t want to cause consternation.

    Martin.

    Thank you for challenging the rather idiotic comment made by Grant.

    Oceans, seas and lakes cover nearly 3/4 the Earth’s surface, and are mostly very deep.

    ‘Saline water covers approximately 72% of the planet’s surface (~3.6×108 km2) and is customarily divided into several principal oceans and smaller seas, with the ocean covering approximately 71% of Earth’s surface.[6] The ocean contains 97% of Earth’s water, and oceanographers have stated that only 5% of the World Ocean has been explored.[6] The total volume is approximately 1.35 billion cubic kilometers (320 million cu mi)[7] with an average depth of nearly 3,700 meters (12,100 ft).[8][9]’

    Nearly 4 kilometres deep!

    Gases are about 1/1000th the density of water at standard temperature and pressure, and the atmosphere is densest near the Earth’s surface, and becomes very thin at high altitude. The lack of matter in the atmosphere is very evident from the fact that approximately 10 metres of water depth generates the same pressure as 200km of atmosphere.

    Taking that a step further, the oceans are equivalent to around 400 atmospheres.

    So when people get focused on atmospheric temperatures they really are barking up the wrong tree altogether. It is the temperature of the water of the oceans that is the number one factor in determining the average temperature of the Earth. And it is the rate of transfer of heat to the oceans that determines the rate at which the Earth overheats (the enthalpy of phase change for water being a significant factor in ‘consuming’ excess heat in the oceans).

    Anyone who has been following this stuff and has any rudimentary understanding recognises that we are in serious trouble because the deep oceans have been heating like never seen before in recorded human history (and arguably faster than at any time since humans before first evolved). It is primarily the massive thermal lag of the oceans that causes me to question very short term NTHE predictions.

    On the matter of the peaking of oil extraction, I am with Guy (and those who have pointed out the real situation). Conventional oil extraction peaked over 2005 to 2008, and the dysfunctional global economic system has been propped up via extremely costly (both financial and environmental) practices such as fracking and tar sands extraction.

    A few of interesting aspects of tar sands extraction are that huge quantities of natural gas are consumed to extract the bitumen; the wear and tear on machinery is utterly horrendous, with continuous maintenance (maintenance being a product of the general oil-based economy) being required; the need to dilute the bitumen with imported refined petroleum to make it pumpable.

    What is interesting at this particular juncture is the low price that oil is fetching: WTI about $41 and Brent about $46 a barrel. Such prices rip to shreds the balance sheets of many oil companies (apparently BP lost $5.8 billion in the second quarter) and entire nations. Canada appears to be in particularly deep shit at this moment, having very high cost extraction systems and high dependency on energy exports. And a massive house price bubble.

    What is more, the over-valued share markets that have been the product of money-printing by central banks appear to have peaked and commenced their inevitable decline.

  • “Continuing further, if the wife gets a job and brings home another paycheck that boost income by another 35% (fracking) and all the kids get jobs, boosting total household income by another 15%(renewable/solar), then you still won’t have broken even, because now the new income earners need tires for her car, work cloths/uniforms, lunch money, etc.”

    The very long article linked here talks about the costliness of jobs as due to bad planning.

    “Although Houston households spend a relatively small portion of their budgets on housing (33.1 percent), they spend the most on transport (21.0 percent) of the 17 cities surveyed, resulting in the second highest combined housing and transport spending (54.1 percent), exceeded only by Miami (56.1 percent), as illustrated below.

    http://www.planetizen.com/node/80431/smart-planning-economic-opportunity

  • “It is the temperature of the water of the oceans that is the number one factor in determining the average temperature of the Earth…

    Anyone who has been following this stuff and has any rudimentary understanding recognises that we are in serious trouble because the deep oceans have been heating like never seen before in recorded human history (and arguably faster than at any time since humans before first evolved).”

    Sad, but true.

    לא יהיה לך אלוהים אחרים עלפניי

  • Hey, what about an ‘ice bucket challenge’ of sorts to raise money to stop NTHE? (Yeah, I know, it can’t be done, but only a few people know this). I pose the challenge to you all to come up with a suitable gimmick for this purpose.

  • Old Mother Hubbard
    Went to the cupboard
    To get her poor dog a bone

    But when she bent over
    Rover drove her
    ‘Cause he had a bone of his own.

    If you find my humor to be rude, crude and socially unacceptable… thank you! 🙂

  • Well worth reading,but Clive still has to finish on an optimistic note,it would be interesting to know if he actually believes his concluding paragraph.His ‘Requiem for a species’ and ‘Earthmasters’ are both excellent.http://theconversation.com/no-escaping-the-blue-planet-46454

  • The dr. of Balderdash towards the top – after about 2 minutes seeing the crowd, hearing the “basal hate” in his rancid turd loud overweening voice and hearing him give words that disparged Rachel Carson and praise DDT – enough.

    I went to do some more proofing in “Silent Spring” It will be a nice free little epub in a few months unless the shtf before.

    My little mantra remains, Look up while you still can. The geese woke me up yesterday. The non-verbal mentally challenged individual I pick up last on my way into the “day-program” let me know in uncertain terms that he heard geese flying for the first time in the morning. We both live a couple hundred meters from the river. He does not have many facial – body language nouns, but he does have one for geese. It is like Christmas to him when they resume flying after the molt. I find him a very sane man and count him as a friend.

    It really would do no good at all whatsoever to talk about this to my co-workers, I do over the decades point out various nouns and verbs or para-verbals that non-verbal individuals possess to co-workers I have had. It is pointless to point this one out, either people can see it or they don’t, his is quite subtle.

    Pretty much where I am with NTHE, the sheer weight and volume of the rapid change will bend or break some to going from believing the next century will be hideous — to coming to a tetanic (tetanus – lactic acid etc.) grip on that dying tree limb which is our environment and experience the unshakable nowness that now is pretty much it.

    Pity, most won’t – even with their last breath believe that their last breath is part and parcel with human extinction.

  • OK, I have one – the challenge would be to touch your toes to your nose, only from behind. You have to have an excellent back arch to do this, so many people will fail, or know they will fail, and therefore have to pay. Guy, do you have a non-profit set up that could take the proceeds? You know, it sounds stupid, but look at all the attention the ‘ice bucket challenge’ has gotten. It’s a win-win, even if you only use the money to spread awareness. That’d be a legitimate use, IMO. I mean you need awareness in order to hope to rectify the problem.

  • Merrill – You say ‘every time you visit this blog’ and then a bunch of words.
    Why would you ever even visit this blog? The phrase ‘every time’ would indicate that you visit here frequently or at least more than once.
    Are you a closet doomer?
    Not that I care, this blog needs some comic relief.
    Plus it’s a good excuse to drag out my favorite Jesus video yet again, in case you missed it earlier:

    .

  • “Then they dreamed the same dream. The whole world had been stolen, and people tumbled about on it like hungry and lost refugees in a foreign land. All spaces seemed to be owned by private companies. And the world had fences in strange places. And many long walls.

    Paz couldn’t move, and his real leg jerked as though he had fallen down stairs. Mella murmured. In the stolen world they walked carefully, trying not to upset anything, like visitors. Because it wasn’t their home. Barbed wire between their toes. They bumped into another wall and got a new bruise, and it seemed that there were bluebruised people everywhere discovering new walls.

    A queue then to buy back a bit of the world: a little bit of space for $2.5 million, so they could have somewhere to sit down. But they had no money, so they walked and walked and bumped into walls.”

    —Tamara Pearsen from “The Butterfly Prison”

  • @Guy McPherson: ed, there’s more than meets the eye to the Ashley Madison story (i.e., this week’s Distraction by the Media for the People). Somebody used the name of John Key (New Zealand’s Prime Minister following the lead of Barack Obama and John Harper). John Key is a cheater and a liar — he’s a politician, after all — but in many ways beyond his personal life.

    >>>

    Yes…sigh. So many cheaters and liars!

    That’s the whole point of that Ashley Madison “distraction”. It’s hardly a distraction, as anyone familiar with the moral law would be quick to inform you.

    Just ask Robin. He’ll put it in some obscure Hindu language, no doubt with some relevant quotes from ancient texts about the Kali Yuga, and whatnot. Truly, it is the ultimate cause for “The Collapse of Industrial Civilization”!

    Mebbe we can start a Diogenes lantern bidness, and sell lanterns while we can still make a buck.

    >>>

    @ugotstawonder: OK, I have one – the challenge would be to touch your toes to your nose, only from behind.

    >>>

    I think we should just sell lanterns – or mebbe lantern buttons and lapel pins, if we want to keep costs down and profits up. Capitalism works!

    >>>

    @Colin: If you find my humor to be rude, crude and socially unacceptable… thank you!

    >>>

    I just find it to be plagiarized. You really need a Diogenes Lantern button, STAT.

  • I can’t imagine what your worldview must look or feel like when all of science has supposedly now been utterly corrupted by self-interested money grubbing capitalist pointy headed science conspiracists. The narrative implies that doctoral-type and grad students run “science” as a gimmick and that they do not depend on institutional grants from highly conservative institutions in order to eat their baloney sandwiches and instant coffee in the student union.

    Missing if course from their narrative are very real actual large capitalists who get a scott free pass according to this worldview. They aren’t seen, heard or even mentioned. Do they exist? Well yeah, sure they do according to small people I see ground up in the meat grinder every day, as well as those numbers in the business pages every day.

    I have to try to have some compassion even for the worlds biggest dolts, but the question I ponder is, does this guy actually believe it? And I would have to say yes, he probably does. Knowing what I know about fundamentalists and how their belief sits them outside of reality and protects them from it. I cannot maintain that cognitive dissonance in my head because it causes me to sublimate the tension and manifest as self harm.

    Self-harm kind of in the same way that pushing a science-as-fraud line that mitigates your cognitive dissonance which unfortunately results in the extinction of all life on earth. Jesus is obviously not going to remove the methane or release a new carbon sequestration app, so how can he be my saviour?

  • @twimc

    Of the 325 species of land snails in Hawaii, only 15 species are left.

    Not for nothing is Hawaii called “The Extinction Capital of The World.”

  • we must be pinballs.

  • When folks told Hendrix he was the greatest guitarist ever, he demurred, and said it was this guy:

  • This is a question for @kevin moore

    I read your post on an earlier thread about how you said you were abused. If you really were badly screwed over by people why didn’t you take direct personal revenge on them?

  • Wester,

    I found the excerpt from the Butterfly Prison really moving. Thanks for posting it.
    Your comments are always something I look forward to.

    Ugot,
    why not post a photo of yourself doing some extreme gymnastics. I’d like to see that.

  • I’ve posted a guest essay, the author’s first in this space. Read it here.

  • Cindy.

    When one is abused by ‘the system’ and ‘the system’ is not accountable, where does one go for justice? Taking personal revenge just permits the system to abuse one even more!

    Let’s stake the case of being arrested on trumped-up charges after making a perfectly valid environmental statement. And then being locked in a cell contain8ng vomit. And being deprived of water. By the Auckland Police. And then witnessing Auckland Police officers lie in court. Any suggestion how one can take personal revenge without being murdered by the system or incarcerated for a long time?

    In my long battle with NPDC is have been personally abused, subjected to trespass orders, had public comment the corrupt lying CEO deems unacceptable (i.e. the truth) removed from the public domain.

    I am still in the process of dealing with that particular lot at the moment, but have no confidence any part of ‘the system’ will take appropriate action. The system is geared to protect criminals. Always has been. Always will be.

    I could go back a long way. Perhaps to the time I got whacked with a can for showing initiative, for not following orders quickly enough, or not doing homework I didn’t understand at the time. Whack, whack, whack. That was the way of the times.

    Fortunately, I grew up in a loving home and was not subject to any abuse there, other than being made to feel guilty about things I should not have been made to feel guilty about. Such was the society at the time.

    I could talk at length about how my children were effectively abducted by their psychotic mendacious mother, and subjected to abuse, and how the NZ Family Court system utterly failed me and my children, and placed my children in an abusive situation: the effects remain to this day.

    I must admit, at the time I did have serious thoughts of murdering my ex-wife. But that would have resulted in me spending a ling time behind bars.

    It’s all a rigged game, I’m afraid., Cindy.

    I grew up in a ‘concentration camp’ and am now living in a corrupt fascist police state. As long as I don’t step too far out of line ‘they’ won’t lock me up.

  • Sabine, why is it always about you and what you want? Just like your buddy, ulvfugl, you seem to think others exist just to please you. A pat on the head when they do, a thump on the head when they don’t. Did you ever stop to think they might not care about you or your approval? I don’t imagine you do, because AGAIN, it’s all about you!

  • This short metaphor may prove usueful in helping people understand our situation.

    The human experiment is caught in what I have come to call a carbon trap. Our continued existence depends on the very thing that is killing us: the combustion of the planet’s ancient carbon stocks.

    We are in a cell whose bars are made of carbon. The door swung closed when the atmosphere reached 300 ppm of CO2, and the lock snapped shut 50 ppm later. There is no key that will re-open it.

    The trap was constructed well outside of our conscious view or understanding.

    It was designed by our evolved desires for status, material comfort and security.

    It was built with the best of intentions by well-meaning scientists and engineers whose knowledge of the consequences was both incomplete and obfuscated by their own evolved desires.

    The strength of the bars comes from the thermodynamics of carbon combustion – an energetic process with a very steep gradient. Once we descend that gradient we would have to harness over twice the energy to climb back up again. We need the energy to keep things running (which is the reason we burned the carbon in the first place), the same amount of energy to break the molecular bonds and turn the CO2 back into harmless carbon and oxygen, and a little more to pay the Pied Piper of Entropy.

    Most of us distract ourselves by creating and admiring elaborate appointments for our carbon-clad prison.

    Most of those who are aware of the bars spend their time dreaming of ways to slip through them into the world they can see outside. They face one insurmountable problem. While the light of awareness can slip between the carbon bars, our bodies cannot.

    Those who are fully aware of the trap understand that we now need it to survive. We are collective victims of what complex systems scientists call “path dependence”: where we came from and how we got here limits what is now possible for us to do.

    One of the things we can’t to is simply to open the door and leave. Even the fact that our carbon-barred prison is now on fire can’t change the cold equations. We are condemned to wait until the very walls burn down, when a few soot-blackened survivors may stumble out into the blasted and barren landscape left behind by the construction project.

    Have a nice weekend.

  • Etyerepetyere Says:
    August 20th, 2015 at 9:26 am

    Eerie Ass,

    Where is your evidence for now that is any stronger that Hansen and 12 other scientists who recently said a 10 yr. doubling would produce 10 feet of SLR by 2050?

    Are you saying that Dr. McPherson does not “believe” the science about global warming induced sea level rise (SLR)?

    Your lack of reading comprehension and you swallowing of myth whole hog is not present evidence.

    The IPCC worst case scenarios for SLR were passed two years ago according to Prof. Dr. Mitrovica who was part of the IPCC committees who called for much higher SLR values (You Are Here – 5).

    The east coast has seen 128mm SLR (5.05 in.) in the past 5 years (Agnotology: The Surge – 16).

    It has seen 1m of SLR “1m in a few years or less” within the past 7,600-8,000 years (The Surge: A Forgotten Aspect of Sea Level Rise).

    Methane release or loss of habitat does not obviate SLR, in fact, SLR will continue to destroy habitat along with other global warming induced climate change.

  • Ugot,

    I was hoping you were joking when I read your comments, too optimistic by nature, I suppose.
    Oh dear, where’s your sense of humour? It seems to me, you have a by-pass there.

  • Sabine – yes, I suppose my sense of humor is a casualty when viciously exploited by a psychopath that others, such as yourself, then cheer on and render their support to!

  • she’s right ugot…jokes are a two way street. at least she acknowledged your existence…but, pardon me…it’s none of my business.

  • Paul Chefurka,

    Thanks for posting your ‘carbon trap’ metaphor.

    It sums up my thoughts and feelings as well.

    best wishes to you and yours as we await the main burning man event.

  • Digixplor – there is history of which you are unaware and, no, she is not right, but, interestingly, you exemplify the knee-jerk reaction of most humans to negate those who stand up against the kind of wrong in issue on this exchange which you know nothing about. I believe that propensity goes a long way to why humanity is fucked, but never mind.