Fading Away

I’ll be posting infrequently in this space. Not only have I lost critical support, but there is little for me to add. Barring a miracle — the likes of which this planet has never witnessed — habitat for humans will soon vanish from Earth.

Contrary to the misguided wishes of my shoot-the-messenger detractors, I will not be retiring from public service. Rather, I will be sharpening my focus, personally and in the public sphere. Much to the chagrin of those who prefer the death cult of civilization over life on Earth, I will continue to pursue excellence rooted in evidence and also in love.

I will continue to speak in public as long as the system allows. Pauline Schneider and I will continue to offer our workshop as long as the system allows.

I will continue to suffer the fools and foolishness of the dominant culture. But not gladly, and certainly not joyously.

I will continue to update my long essay with information about abrupt climate change. I will continue to post occasionally in this space. And I will post the occasional, exceptional guest essay.

I need to live, though. For the little time remaining, I need to live and I need to grieve myriad losses, mine and ours.

Thank you for your continued understanding and support. May your journey be rewarding.

Comments 152

  • Guy, I appreciate all you’ve done in an attempt to enlighten people. Your message can really only be absorbed by thoughtful people. And if we honestly admit it, how many really thoughtful people do any of us know or interact with. In school, in business, even in extended families, it’s very rare to share meaningful thoughts and conversations. You’re a great Human Being Guy, I know you’ll continue pursuing excellence. Best Wishes to you.

  • I can only concur with what azdd wrote.

  • I like to consider myself having above average intelligence, but once one takes into account how freaking low average intelligence really is that’s not saying much.

    It certainly doesn’t help that any fool can get online and voice whatever is on their tongue without any real thought.

    Avoiding the web as much as possible is endlessly rewarding. There are all manner of things more important that being online and taking a long break from it really helps one to relax.

    Best of luck to Guy and to each and everyone of us. Peace.

  • I don’t think that you can fade away until we all fade away.

    You have told the truth to millions of appreciative listening fellow pilgrims.

    You are stuck with being the living personification of Jeremiah, Cassandra, Pogo, & Winnie-the-Pooh.

    You can’t lose critical support – you can only gain it every day.

    Absolutely nothing of any significance that you have said has been dis-confirmed.

    As more & more confirmatory empirical evidence comes in – ugly as it is, you will be more & more respected & revered for your prescience, honesty, & wisdom.

    The human species failed, but there were some great truthful achievements as we rose & fell.

    Too bad that you were the exception & not the rule.

    Be proud – you deserve it.

  • Me three. I also agree with azdd & Haydukes Monkey. So far from the States I always try to listen, whenever have the time-manageable, from Bangladesh, to what Mr. Guy McPherson has to say. Personal hero of my time. An inspiration. Many many and infinite heartfelt thanks!

  • Much as azdd said:

    Thanks for providing this home for all the members of your tribe Guy. Very few people are willing to engage in these types of discussions in my 4D world, but of course it’s been that way most of my life.

    The price you pay for having a totally open forum, unusual in the blogosphere, also the reason I gave up on the world: too many assholes. Or maybe I should say people very attached to their viewpoint and lacking politeness, sometimes belligerent. This culture screens for, produces and encourages this type of wrong behaviour.

    What did you mean about losing critical support, if you don’t mind my asking? moflo was a great help in running the blog. He was often tempted to ban or at least restrict some commenters/comments. Too many divergent views and conflicting styles to accommodate them all.

    Too bad they wore down ulvfugl. He used to take a lot of the flak for you, and tried to help keep the comments on focus. He did generate a lot of complaints from those who were apparently too sensitive to his frequent admonishments and challenges to their statements.

    Bumper sticker today, “At least the war on the environment is going well”.

  • You are a naughty scientist Dr. McPherson (The Evolution of Models – 11).

    And they did not like it (The Private Empire’s Social Media Hit Squads, 2).

  • re Grant’s comment:

  • Dear Guy,

    Thanks for having provided this space and for still being here.

    Take good care of yourself and the ones you love for as long as possible. You are indeed a rare human being.

    I’ll try staying in touch with your exceptional work for as long as I can because you’re one of the few humans around who are in my thoughts daily.
    Peace and love to you.

  • Guy,
    I’ve been following your posts and videos for about a year now. I live in the moment now instead of thinking about trivial things that don’t matter. It has been refreshing to learn from you because you are so honest and intelligent. You’ve had a big influence on me and I appreciate all the work you do.
    Take care and thanks Guy,
    (Ontario, Canada)

  • Considering everything, your decision seems like healthy development. This particular song has pretty much been sung.

    Best of luck, whatever you do.

  • Thank you for all of your encouragement Guy – you are a very brave and thoughtful person. I only wish there were more like you speaking the truth…

  • Thank you so much, Guy. ………….love you forever.

  • Thank you. Thank you for informing us, supporting us, and loving enough to do it all.
    I’ll still be watching the world burn with you.
    I wish I could give you a hug. We could all use one.
    May peace follow you all of your days.

  • Guy, for what it’s worth, I believe you

    The retired and very tired paramedic –


  • Sorry that you’re retiring from this blog – I only became aware of it about a month back, and have been checking it just about daily since. Shame I didn’t find it a long time ago.

    I hope you’ll continue to update it, maybe less regularly, but people deserve to know this stuff – at least, they deserve to have the opportunity. It seems obvious to me, now, that we have no future and no chance of surviving. It’s been obvious since the 1980s, actually, but I didn’t realise how imminently our demise approaches.

    This blog and its associates has made me re-evaluate my own life, and what to do with the time that remains. We need to know how much time there is left, in order to do it best.

    So the question is – how long do we have?

  • For those of us who will continue to “do science” until we drop (or drop some pills), the Charctic Sea Ice Graph shows the August 24, 2015 sea ice extent curve is slightly exiting 2 standard deviations.

    Guy has been beyond three standard deviations for the last several years.

  • Love and Only Love
    will endure…

    Long ago in the book of old,
    Before the chapter
    where dreams unfold
    A battle raged
    on the open page,
    Love was a winner there
    overcoming hate
    Like a little girl
    who couldn’t wait.

    Love and only love
    will endure
    Hate is everything
    you think it is
    Love and only love
    will break it down
    Love and only love,
    will break it down
    Break it down, break it down.

    Tomorrow is a long long time
    if you’re a memory
    Trying to find peace of mind
    Spirit come back to me,
    Give me strength and set me free
    Let me hear the magic in my heart.

    Love and only love
    will endure
    Hate is everything
    you think it is
    Love and only love
    will break it down
    Love and only love,
    will break it down
    Break it down, break it down.

    Long ago in the book of old,
    Before the chapter
    where dreams unfold
    A battle raged
    on the open page,
    Love was a winner there
    overcoming hate
    Like a little girl
    who couldn’t wait.

    Love and only love
    will endure
    Hate is everything
    you think it is
    Love and only love
    will break it down
    Love and only love.

  • Thanks for your message, Guy. I know I’m new to this particular space, but I’d been hearing your message for several years now thanks to the Arctic News blog. Thank you.

    And they say it’s a tragic story
    he just wasn’t there one day
    but he went out in a Blaze of Glory
    and you and I – you and I just fade away …



    I could go on but what’s the use
    You can’t fight them with songs
    But think of this as just
    another tiny blow against the Empire

    Another blow against the Evil Empire …

  • azdd Says
    Haydukes Monkey Says
    Grant Schreiber Says
    Gerald Spezio Says
    Anik S. Says
    Jimbot Says
    Dredd Says
    Sabine Says
    Lisa Says
    mt Says
    izzy Says
    Susan Says

    And so do “I” ;-)

  • Thank you Guy. In a confused and stumbling existence, you have offered me an honorable pillar of support.

  • I hope we’ll each volunteer to maintain the two-post rule (as long as this site remains).

  • ed,

    Your August 23rd, 2015 at 4:57 pm comment serves as a wonderful example of the kind of thinking and interacting with others that the psychologists I have most recently referred to strongly suggest people NOT do, based on about 30 years of research on relationships. (Your insisting that you know my thinking, feeling, and motivations better than I do while you have read only a few words that I have written and have never even met me.) This demonstrates the exact opposite of empathy and emotional validation, again, a great example of how we would best not treat each other.


    Regarding your August 24th, 2015 at 6:01 pm comment: Here we go again (and again, and again, and again). Yet another round of abusive ad hominem attacks with various commenters here supporting each other’s emotionally abusive behaviors while apparently vying for the coveted title, Lord of the Flies. “Brilliant” indeed, with no discussion whatever related to the topic. It seems clear that a significant percentage of people who comment here at NBL love to form what I might call “ad hominem attack clubs” (AHACs), a form of bullying in which one or more people attack a commenter in abusive, ad hominem ways while others enthusiastically support the bullying. Hey, “The world knows that Guy allows that kind of anarchist emotional and verbal abuse to occur here, so LET’S HAVE AT IT!” This of course accounts for an important reason why a large percentage of people leave or refuse to comment here. So the site tends strongly to select for abusive, disrespectful commenters.

    Would you and ed care to help the readers here understand how you believe this kind of inappropriate, unrelated, abusive behavior helps anyone in any way—-other than in helping yourselves to feel good I mean? I have asked this question many times over the past year, and I don’t recall anyone responding to it in any way. Perhaps you will surprise us with some kind of thought-filled, relevant answer? If you respond, please point out where I have supposedly “used the language of contempt”, which I have never felt nor intended, and which I remain completely unaware of? Meanwhile, the two of you presumably have not written in contemptuous ways? I find it utterly fascinating the number of people, here, who do not want others to treat Guy in these abusive ways (including Guy himself), and then they treat other commenters at this site in exactly the ways they say others should not treat Guy. Fascinating. And “brilliant”. Clearly, Goavs, you and I have radically different conceptions of both contempt and brilliance.

    We await your explanation of how ed’s comment, and your and others’ support of it, supposedly helps anyone in any way. Hopefully one or both of you can respond in a reasonably mature way without yet another irrelevant, distracting, contemptuous, arrogant, emotionally abusive, ad hominem attack. As an empirical question, time will tell. I wonder: how many more will join this particular AHAC?


    August 24th, 2015 at 7:54 pm you wrote “the first rule of fight club is, you do not talk about fight club.”

    Ah, but I love doing exactly that: talking about the fight, the process, and the helpful or hurtful intra- and interpersonal nature of that process. Meanwhile, narrowly caught up in their narrow-focused, favorite content, most people want nothing to do with considering the process and its social consequences.

  • Thank you Guy for everything you have done and are continue to do in the future. Thank you for sharing your life and message!

  • Thanks for all you have done and will do in the future Guy. I look forward to what may come from the Mark Austin connection.
    All the best.

  • robin, I see you conspicuously left mr. petyere off your little list…I guess his voice doesn’t count? if this were an arc, it’s clear who would be on it…as usual. a bunch of ivory tower elitists. I wonder who would actually do any work on this arc? without a computer or papers to push? I see dead cannibals! god has a helluva sense of humour.

  • @ Guy you have my heartfelt acknowledgment of the time and effort you have given to keeping us informed.

    @ 44 South You are very welcome. I often feel- gosh- if there was just some way that I could concisely and succinctly communicate what I see clearly to be the case… that just upon hearing the simplicity of it that a person would just try it on the spot ?
    I’ll keep trying..

    I might repost my comment from yesterday if things are winding down..

  • .
    Guy, Thank you so so much for having this site for as long as you did. I can’t begin to express what it’s meant to me, in terms of exploring and fleshing out my ideas. I’ve learned so much from you and from so many here, all you kindred souls whom I have grown to love.

    Please keep us posted as best you can on your path. Hold your light up high so we can see you from afar. There will always be a spot for you around the campfire on the beach.
    Best wishes to you always,


  • LOL…Brit!
    Guessing opposite ends of the Earth, nearly exact same words typed at same time. I was slow to post,waiting for reception. Synchronicity! Love it.

  • bud, you do have an important, valid message…but,you do talk too damn much.

  • Thank you for all you’ve done and all you do, Guy. I just last night finished “Going Dark.” Your pain comes through loud and clear and I share it, even though I’ve done none of the courageous things you’ve done in an attempt to bring your life into line with what you understand to be right. You have many admirers and I’m one of them.

    Here’s a symphonic poem that seems the perfect musical metaphor for industrial civilization, running faster, faster, ever faster until the wheels come off and the thing flies apart, killing everything. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qucwWkqYrbA

  • Peace to you,
    Om shanti,

  • Kudos, Guy – both for opening this space and for stepping out with grace and integrity.

  • Dear Guy,

    You know how much I appreciate you and your work, so I will not restate it here. You take my affection, respect, and slippers with you! I like that. And I still hope you come to Alaska soon, and that I have a chance to meet you in person someday.

    peace and love, man,


  • It has been a rigged game all along.

    All the major issues were identified by the early 1970s, and appropriate responses were formulated: population control, decoupling from fossil fuels, small is beautiful, natural is best etcetera.

    The bankers and the industrialists, along with various religious zealots, would not allow appropriate responses to be implemented: breed like rabbits, drill and burn; bigger is better, artificiality is better, and other such nonsense. Corrupt, bought-and-paid-for politicians lied to the masses.

    Now that we have reached the crash and burn stage, bankers, industrialist, along with various religious zealots, promote increased population overshoot, drilling and burning, ‘growth’, and artificiality, all wrapped up in superficiality and lies. Bought-and-paid-for politicians lie to the masses -being utterly determined to burn the next generation, including their own progeny.

    A telemarketer rang yesterday, promoting subscriptions to The Daily News.

    I pointed out that The Daily News is not a newspaper but is an Orwellian propaganda outlet, with little or no actual news, and certainly none of significance, that it works in concert with local government to bring about ruination of the district, and that letters to the editor pointing out the truth are doctored or not published at all. I pointed out that she (the caller, probably in her twenties from the sound of the voice) was in for nasty shock some time in the coming months, and will discover she has been lied to all her life.

    Rather than hanging up upon discovering she would not be making a sale, the caller listened attentively to my commentary and was quite engaged. She had a vague perception that things were not right with climate. I enlightened her about several other matters important matters.

    In the past three weeks I have received apologies for two insulting remarks made. Yesterday I enlightened an acquaintance about the real situation with respect to the council and our deceitful ‘leaders’, along with the gross incompetence of council officers. And last night someone who bought a copy of TEW and had only read part of it resolved to read all of it.

    The tide is turning.

    It is too late to undo four decades of additional damage done since the 1970s, but it is not too late to wake people up to the lies they have been told, and continue to be told, by bankers, industrialists, religious zealots and bought-and-paid-for politicians.

  • Greetings all,
    I recently got back from my meeting with Mark Austin. I was very glad we were able to connect.

    I found him quite delightful and personable.. hard to believe he became a “bureaucrat”! If only all bureaucrats were like him, we might not be in such trouble, or at least we wouldn’t be going so quickly to rack and ruin.

    He admired my $30,000 perm and offered me a tribute of toilet paper. I gave him my copy of “The Silence of Animals”. We agreed the world is insane, along with many of the folks in it. I’m glad he’s not mad at me after all for indicating that his efforts, along with those of many others, haven’t a chance of success. This needs to not matter, and he accepted it with amazing grace. :-)

    We talked a bit about the general compulsion to “do something”. He’s already shared a few wacky projects he’s been privy to, and I’m sure even more dangerous and silly and pointless-at-best things are in the works. We really didn’t explore that much, as we didn’t have all that much time, but we got to sound each other out a bit, and become friends, I hope.

    When it was time for him to go, his hunky joli laid “escort” appeared on the scene to whisk him nuke-ward. Godspeed, Mark.

    And Godspeed, Guy… I’ll add my thanks for your research and for your continued maintenance of this space. Subject as it is to all the vagaries of the Internet, it’s imperfect, but could be so much worse. You’ve reached a lot of people. For every person commenting here, I’m sure there are dozens if not hundreds who have read without jumping in.

    I hope you’ll share details from your Washington trip here. I’m quite curious as to the sort of reception you will have. Lucy van Pelt’s $.05 psychological advice: try to channel the calm and generous yet IMPLACABLE educator Guy, and not the prickly, chip-on-the-shoulder-albeit-justified Guy. I say this with all LOVE & respect. X-nay on the atriarchy-pay, kwim? XXXooo -Lidia

  • OK, so every once in a while you toss up a brick (hey, so did Pistol Pete),
    but usually it’s been nothing but the bottom of the net.

    Lucked into a tune with a hoopster…and a Trailblazer to boot.

  • Dear Dr. McPherson, Hopefully your critical support in Washington D.C. is growing. We are looking forward to your presentations. Your message is very controversial in the capitol of Empire, however, your data gathering is also appreciated by my small team. You seem to love doing lectures so I hope my pre-retirement gift to you includes more “critical support” by giving your message an ever higher profile on PBS and with concerned professionals at the N.I.H. who also are ready to retire & accept fate rather than waste time trying to keep IC going against the winds of war & methane fate.

    LIDIA was very nice to meet today in Vermont after I completed meetings in her state capitol. Good conversation. The NBL message of moving on toward a life of excellence, appreciation & peace is important. A co-worker was with us and he is learning the importance of not being blind to pending abrupt climate change. We are here working on Decommissioning 1 nuclear reactor. 399 more will be impossible to reduce in time on before world impacts.

    Many continue to forget that a major extinction factor will be the meltdowns we have no plan or way to handle. Biological life can not withstand that much radiation. THANK YOU for continuing to remind people that even the experts have no solution for nuclear reactors once an entire chain of them go critical.

  • Dear Guy:

    Like my mother would say, “Oh, well what the hell.” Everything dies. We love you for the beauty and truth that you have brought into our lives. There is no greater service and for that there will be no greater reward, some where, some how.

  • Thanks and best wishes going forward,Guy.

  • Civilization is going away and soonish, but I no longer think that this will save the natural world. We have destroyed too much and we have set too much in motion.

    What is ahead will be such a shock for most, “why were we not told?” they will ask. You have told us clearly and loudly but we do not listen.

    Best wishes going forward

  • You are a man of high principle, goodness, love and intelligence Guy! :-) A rare being in this corrupted world. I tried to interest a men’s group I’m a part of in discussing Laudato si by the current Pope Francis. I read and analysed 10 paragraphs a day and added further web links to reports on climate change including your own and Peter Wadhams and communicated daily by email. Did I get a healthy intellectual debate? Heck no! Francis has tried to alert Catholics and others to the seriousness of these issues including a call to respect all creation including animals and the biosphere as part of God’s love. I might as well have been talking to myself I got zilch zero reaction! I met one of the guys the other day and he humourously said I was looking for an audience with the Pope!People just don’t want to know. I talked to a local climate scientist here in NZ and he agreed, even the government doesn’t want to know. What can one do? My advice would to be get back into a University and get some serious money again, there must be some in the US that still respect independence and integrity.Thankyou for the courage to tell it as it is. :-) Most don’t have the courage to even face up to it as it is!

  • Many of us support you, Guy! Please check in periodically and don’t let the idiots get to you. I know, easier said… Good luck and I will continue to visit here frequently. Send me a message if you’re coming to St. Paul, MN.


  • Guy,

    So many, many thanks to you for all your efforts, courage and heart over the years.

    Peace and blessings to you, I wish you well…

  • The Locomotive breath by Jethro Tull, first heard this in the early 70s. Even back then it represented to me the relentless, heedless rush onwards to where? of the civilisation I’d grown up in. Then I lived in Windsor about 15 miles west of London Heathrow airport. Sometimes planes, still had turbo props then, or jets were flying over our flat every 20 seconds!! to land at the airport. It was like a civilian version of the Berlin airlift, sometimes every evening.I flew in a jet for the first time myself in 1967, aged 18 from Munich to London.
    The song tells of this relentless fossil fueled drivingness of our times and sings of the All Time Loser grabbed by the balls by The All Time Winner!So true of the relentless competition which is now at an extreme.This process totally annihilates the biosphere which is ground under its wheels.


  • So much that I could say, but I’ll just keep it short.
    I’m grateful for all the work you’ve done.
    But most of all, I’m grateful to have you as a friend.

    And also, thanks to all of the people who have contributed to the dialogue here at NBL.

  • Credt for trying to reach mass counsciousness Mcpherson, however, it was always going to be an uphill battle with the objective forces of a global social economy. Something that permeates every aspect of our lives with its tendencies, two of which are deep conditioning and suicidal levels of consumerism in that order.

    In this state, the only option is mass awareness of these tendencies at an objective level and populist change, neither of which are likely to happen until it is too late..

  • Turning on the computor each morning for my daily cuppa NBL doom has actually been one of the most reassuring and replenishing activities in my daily life for quite a while now. It’s a mostly bullshit free zone and that is very rare. Thank you so much for creating this space, and for all that you’ve done and continue to do Guy. You’re truly exceptional.

    warm regards,

  • All I can say is thanks for all you’ve done for us.

  • What will we do, to not hear and see everyday, that we are going extinct, this is sad to me to know, and this will be more abrupt change, that your fading away into the sunset, yet you really need to go in peace, you have done so much, so for now, thanks and go with love cuz it’s all that’s left. So will this site crash like the stock market? It will leave me clueless, because I need to hear and see everyday, Good-Bye Thanks=Guy

  • Love is real and not fade away! You will never ‘fade away’ from the hearts and minds of all you have touched here, there and everywhere! Be assured of that! http://www.YouTube.com/watch?v=PfaYmd0y86M

  • Damn, rolling stones, ‘not fade away’ please Google it! Doh!

  • The Sorcerer’s Apprentice

    If someone was not on my earlier list, they linked to a music video (I skip them without listening) sans statement, or were invisible in the moderation queue, or griping at someone rather than thanking Dr. McPherson.

  • Guess I’ll be the fly in the ointment here Guy, but it seems that is my appointment in life, to stir things in ways by which things don’t like to be stirred. To start with, the mantra which Guy chose to present in that “Only Love Remains’ is a tempting morsel, but unsubstantiated by the status quo of most human interaction. In order for Only Love to Remain’, it must have been there to begin with, and, according to what I have observed in many blogs, including this one, love is pretty much a no-show.
    For me the non-love parade started back when Khrushchev and Kennedy were sparring over whether or not Cuban missiles would threaten the American Dream. As it turned out, the rest of those whose lives were being lived outside the Big Two breathed a sigh of relief when the Russians went back home with their missiles, thus saving the rest of us from a fate which at the time should have been reserved only for those who would fight an end-of-days battle waged by the two nations’ mighty generals.
    The flower people followed, came and went, as did the days of wine and roses suggested by Mr Ford and Co, an era in which Rachel Carson was allowed to open a door to the newest concept on the block…i.e., we, humanity’s greatest, were polluting the Earth, and birds were unable to hatch their offspring, thus precipitating the Silent Spring she warned would prevail if DDT was not banned.
    Then came Dr. Helen Caldicott, who instead of tending to human health, dedicated herself to the abolishment of nuclear weapons. But what she failed to identify was that to abolish nuclear weapons, you must first abolish the reasons why they were made in the first place, and those reasons persist, the real roadblocks to love.
    And now comes the rest of us, the rest of you dear bloggers. You have made the world in which we live. It wasn’t your politicians who evicted millions of humans from their dwellings, but it was YOU who allowed them to do so, still do. In spite of Dr. McPhersons who warned us that our lot was going South in a big hurry, that the carbon we were using presented us with a big problem, bigger than the one Houston fixed, many of us accepted a lot of money to counter those voices, to deny that we even had a problem. Now the problem is about to come home to roost, wherever we are.
    And so, Guy, you were there for all of us, but the love of which you hope will remain, will not do so simply because it just wasn’t there. If it had been, we would not be in this mess as we write the probable epilogue of a most intelligent kind of ape.
    Nevertheless, thank you for trying…

  • Guy, I hope our paths cross again some day. You’re an inspiration and I appreciate your willingness to speak the unspeakable to a less than friendly audience. Thank you.

  • I wanted to comment on NTHE: A Hippy Love Story, which is closed to comments, but having just read it now, Ill post a comment here.

    Only thing I could think of at the end of the story, was: “wow, I bet those fictional hippies really, really… really wished they had an AR-15 to defend themselves with instead of a small garden shovel at the end there….”

    The 2nd amendment wasnt thought up with sporting in mind… it was thought up for exactly such a situation when the government might turn on its people, in whatever form that turning may take. The people who wrote it had actual experience with that happening.

    Hey but thats just crazy conspiracy nonsense. Theres no precedence for a government ever actually turning on its people, you know, and suddenly deciding to round them up into camps against their will, or what have you… right? Crazy gun nuts.

  • jay.

    ‘I talked to a local climate scientist here in NZ and he agreed, even the government doesn’t want to know.’

    I had to chuckle at that one.

    The government is THE PROBLEM.

    The government acts as an agent of corporations and money-lenders, and is charged with orchestrating the looting and polluting the land and the seas as quickly as possible. In order to accomplish this looting and polluting against the best interests of the general populace, the government lies continuously.

  • Thank you so much Guy for all you have done,are doing and will continue to do.

    I have been crying for hours.

    If I understand correctly, this means there will be no comments anymore and the site is going to shut down except for updating of the long essay on feedbacks. I guess so from todays comments and although I really totally understand, I am so terribly sad to loose this community which is about the only one left in my life.

  • Guy, like Glenn above, I’ve only became aware of this blog a month ago. I’ve followed news on global warming for about 8 years mostly from Climate Progress and the occasional mass media story. But it wasn’t until I came here that I realized that I had been missing out on the most important news and analysis. It only took me a day of reading your website to see the truth in your thesis, the evidence for me was so reasonable and backed up with numerous links to source readings. I’ve been returning here daily ever since. One thing I’ll add is not to take any negative reactions here personally. I’ve followed many public and scholarly disputes and about no one, even most scholars, wants to examine all sides of the available evidence. And when corporate and political interventions for personal gain muscle in then there’s no possibility of a rational review and consensus, yet alone group action to try and avoid catastrophe. Unfortunately, human psychology is not evolved enough to lay aside partisanship and egotism. And i realized decades ago that most people would rather die than change their habits or challenge their own beliefs. I do feel sad for the growing loss of all the amazing life forms that have evolved here, as well as for all the beautiful creations of the human mind. And at least we can still enjoy it for a while longer. Thank you again for your courage to be honest and for having done the work you’ve put into this site and for sharing it with others.

  • People

    Folks get upset, you can’t chill ‘em,
    Knock yourself out, you won’t thrill ‘em;
    They’re tough to withstand:
    You can’t live with ‘em, and
    Making things even worse, you can’t kill ‘em.

  • Best of luck Guy, whatever you do, and thanks for all you’ve done for me.

  • Guy- like everyone else here, I’d like to THANK YOU for everything you’ve shared with us, and for being willing to say it all. You’ve made an enormous sacrifice for this “cause” and it is appreciated at least by everyone here. I wish I could’ve done something to help support you financially so it wasn’t such a hardship to pursue it, but alas I am not in that position.

    Every once in awhile, I look for some kind of consolation that all of this is even happening. The only one that cheers me up is this: It is POSSIBLE that in 10 million years or so, when life on the planet begins to recover from our catastrophe, that the new life forms that emerge from our apocalypse will somehow need the trash, waste and toxins that we’ve left behind in order to survive themselves. Much like we have (ironically) created a civilization largely off of the fossilized bones of the last mass die off, perhaps our remains will be put to good use in the next era. No way to know, but it’s sort of a comforting thought.

    God speed, good man!!!!

  • Thanks for everything you’ve done Guy. You, Paul Beckwith and others have done a lot to open the worlds eyes.

  • Nobody remembers the names of the priests who locked up Galileo.

  • For once, I am going to comment without smoking a joint.

    I first heard of Guy McPherson in 2012.

    Then I watched the most important video of all time

    Bewildering as it may be, this site is one of the oh-so-very-few sites I haven’t been banned from commenting on. I am amazed. Thank you Guy for helping me over the mass extinction hump. Your work is inspirational. You? Maybe not so much. lol. Jeeze Belize dude, all the best to you and yours, including ladybug. Like Ap says, you drip my D.

    Here are links to “miles and miles of files because it riles them to believe you perceive the web they weave” — The Moody Blues

    Thermodynamics of Forest Driven Bio-diversity from collapse

  • One last kick at the can.

    Nostalgia Prima Facia

    ► 99% of Rhinos gone since 1914.

    ► 97% of Tigers gone since 1914.

    ► 90% of Lions gone since 1993.

    ► 90% of Sea Turtles gone since 1980.

    ► 90% of Monarch Butterflies gone since 1995.

    ► 90% of Big Ocean Fish gone since 1950.

    ► 80% of Antarctic Krill gone since 1975.

    ► 80% of Western Gorillas gone since 1955.

    ► 60% of Forest Elephants gone since 1970.

    ► 50% of Great Barrier Reef gone since 1985.

    ► 80% of Western Gorillas gone since 1955.

    ► 40% of Giraffes gone since 2000.

    ► 40% of ocean phytoplankton gone since 1950.

    ► Ocean plankton declines of 1% per year means 50% gone in 70 years, more than 1% is very likely.

    ► Ocean acidification doubles by 2050, triples by 2100.

    ► 30% of Marine Birds gone since 1995.

    ► 70% of Marine Birds gone since 1950.

    ► 28% of Land Animals gone since 1970.

    ► 28% of All Marine Animals gone since 1970.

    ► Humans and livestock are 97% of earth’s land-air vertebrate biomass.

    ► 10,000 years ago humans and livestock were a mere 0.01% of land-air vertebrate biomass.

    ► Humans and livestock are now 97% of land-air vertebrate biomass.

    ► Our crop and pasture lands caused 80% of all land vertebrate species extinctions.

    ► Mass Extinction = 75% species loss.

    ► Mass Extinction becomes unstoppable and irreversible when over 50% of species are lost. This means no going back, no matter what.

    ► We already lost 50% of species over the last 40 years.

  • Never met a rule I didn’t want to break.

    Adios all you noble savge buddist tribalists.

    Good luck, you’ll need it.

    give up the hippy dippy new age mumbo jumbo, the universe doesn’t care.

  • @Guy

    Hey man. You gots to do what you gots to do.
    Thanks for your untiring willingness to teach and inform. Maintaining a blog like this requires a lot of time and effort. Probably too much time and effort when you would rather be doing something else. We all need rest/sabbatical/whatever from time to time.

  • Guy-
    I just learned about you and your work a few months ago when I saw the youtube interview at the Earth at Risk 2014 Conference. Digging a little deeper, I found your blog, several of your video presentations, and your big essay. Up until then, the books, reports, and data I read about climate change over the years amounted to a cacophany of conflicting information. It was your work that brought cohesion and perspective. Great big thanks to you for your important and challenging work. All the best to you!

  • Guy, I thought I couldn’t get any more depressed, but the hits just keep on coming. It’s taken me a while to get the implications of your announcement: if there are fewer new posts, there will be less conversation here. We pretty much lost the forum when ulvfugl left, and there’s no place left that I know of where people can say whatever they think/feel about NTE.

    These song lyrics from Linda Ronstadt keep playing in my head; even though they’re not completely relevant, maybe they will mean something to you:

    Life’s full of loss; who knows the cost
    Of living in a memory of a love that never was.
    Well I’ve done everything I know to try and change your mind,
    And I think it’s gonna hurt me for a long, long time.

    Having said that, I’m really glad that you are taking care of yourself. I thank you from the bottom of my heart for all you’ve done and continue to do, and I hope your remaining days will be filled with joy.

  • “Long Road To Ruin”

    Here now don’t make a sound
    Say have you heard the news today?
    One flag was taken down
    To raise another in its place
    A heavy cross you bear
    A stubborn heart remains unchanged
    No home, no life, no love
    No stranger singing in your name

    Maybe the season
    The colours change in the valley skies
    Dear God I’ve sealed my fate
    Running through hell, heaven can wait

  • I couldn’t have been ignored by a better bunch. thanks all and take care.

  • Let’s not make a big deal if a bloke needs a lil’ R & R..not the end of the world, right?

    Thanks for all you’ve done Dr McPherson-we needed the truthiness.

    All the best.

  • I want to add my 2 cents before the lights go out.

    I have never been so content as I am today because of this blog, Guy, Pauline, Carolyn et.al., et. al. and the others that know who I’m speaking of. All true, good, compassionate, humans. I will never forget any of you and will think about you until the end.

    The individuals that I speak of, have lifted the weight of Industrial Civilization off my back and I dream of the day (not too far off) when justice will triumph. At last. At last. At last.

  • Hello. I’m a newcomer here… maybe a month ago. So, I hope the commenters will pardon me for asking – what exactly do you mean by “habitat will be gone for humans”.

    As far as I’ve been able to put together, it means – Over a very short period of time, possibly as little as several months there will be major changes throughout the world – everywhere, from high lattitudes to the equator, from the maritime areas to dry inlands, from low lying planes to alpine peaks – there will be no place where a human being could survive more than a few months. Wherever you’d go plants – dead, animals – gone, if you’d put some seeds in the ground they wouldn’t grow because the soil would be also dead. And very soon, when almost all human race perish – there will be no one left in charge of nuclear facilities so there will be a major nuclear holocaust. The End.

    What puzzles me is what this prognosis is based on – the climate changes are present and they will go worse and worse every year. Probably, there will be a short period of time during which the conditions will change more abruptly – but still – there is an implicit idea that all those different habitats all over the world will be gone all at once – that is the part that makes me suspicious.

    As weather patterns change – some areas will get more hot than the others, some will become wetter, some will become drier, some will be come windier, some calmer… Areas that are now provide for pleasant life will become unpleasant, and maybe some mighty cold areas that are now unsuitable for living become more pleasant.
    Most species would suffer, but wouldn’t you say it is possible that some may even start to thrive?
    Our planet is so complex that it is almost impossible to say whether it will rain next weekend, any yet there is a claim that if global temperatures rise to over 3-4 degrees – we’ll all be gone almost simultaneously all over the world. Because “habitat will be gone”.

    I’m absolutely positive it will bring a civilization to a collapse. Probably we won’t even have to wait till 3-4 degrees.
    Resource wars, economic collapse, great migrations from the unbearable climate and warzones towards US, Canada, EU, Russia… Tropical, subtropical and dry areas all over the world are home to over 3 billion people – if the climate conditions worsen to unprecedented levels, they will start to flee. No state can withstand that.

    But, does that neccesarily mean that there won’t be a single pocket of land left that can support certain number of people?
    For many years I’ve been amateur meteo observer and I also spend a lot of time out in the nature…
    From what I’ve seen – worst nightmare that can happen to any habitat is the drought. It simply destroys everything.
    A few years ago there was a greatest drought in recorded history in my country – as little as 40% of average precipitation at certain spots. Merely 6-8 months into the drought – and leaves started falling from the trees even though it was only mid-August. Agriculture output was cut in half, and there were even months-long water reductions at some places. I guess, if the conditions persisted for only a year longer – everything would be turned into steppe.

    But for years after that we have experienced from 1,5C to >2,0C above average temperatures coupled with increase in precipitation to 120-140% of the average. I have a garden, a vineyard and an orchard (and there are a lot of grain and corn fields and forests nearby) – and I can say without fear of contradiction that this kind of weather actually promotes vigorous growth. Both plants and animals are having a good time.
    And the main reason is – there is plenty of water. As long as that condition is met, I don’t see biosphere having much trouble coping with even higher overall temperatures. Having in mind the connection between higher temperatures and higher precipitation in maritime areas – based on the predictions of Croatian Hydrometeorological Instutute – I guess that trend will continue in the future.
    So, at least in my country – it is highly probable that we’ll get warmer and wetter climate which is way, way easier to cope with than with climate getting drier. For other areas I don’t know but surely there are some places where an impact of global warming will be much smaller that “global average”.

    So, the way I see it – the great turmoil is on the horizon and surely the collapse of a civilization as we know it. We’re heading towards a world of economic catastrophe, constant lack of resources, civil and resource wars and overall high political and social instability that could result in unprecedented rise of totalitarian movements, great immigration pressures, disruption of global supply chains and all that coupled with harsher and at some places unbearable meteorological events.
    But to say we’re about to see an inevitable “shutdown” of any possibility of our planet to sustain human existence, and to even say it is going to happen almost simultaneously all arounfd the world – it seems a bit far-fetched.

    For instance, if there is an 6, or even 8 degrees temperature rise – and you go to a place where used to be 6 or 8 degrees colder (mountains or higher lattitudes), with an abundance of water and a lot of unspoilt and unused land, rich in humus and minerals – and you try to grow some grain, vegetables and small animals there – why would you neccesarily fail?

    I understand that the “Earth of tomorrow” would not be able to provide for billions, but some smaller communities scattered around in such areas that could provide basic resources despite global changes may get a chance to survive.
    Surely we’ll be reduced to a much poorer diet… living without electricity, transportation, advanced medical attention… Probably we’ll be “sentenced” to withdraw to only 1% of Earth’s surface, and we’ll have to cut down in numbers for thousand times over – but to deny any possibility of survival seems like an underestimation of human ability to adapt. People survived the last ice age and after that a major “global warming” – why shouldn’t some even make it through this deadly times of another mega-warming? Heck, even at Hiroshima there were many survivors…

    On what basis could the possibility of survival be categorically dismissed?
    I would much rather discuss about preserving all the good human race has done so far – science, technology, arts, philosophy, spirituality… Why shouldn’t we at least try to think of a way how and where a certain number of people can endure through the next extinction carrying a legacy of a lost civilization and a lesson for the future?
    Such scattered tribes, if they persist enough, may become a seed from which a better civilization will start to grow some day…

  • Snowstormguy:

    All your questions will be answered by reading the climate-change summary and update essay found at the top of this page, followed by reading through the archives essays and comments, beginning in August of 2007. I’m not trying to be a smart ass. Truly. The answers are there.

    Thank you Guy. Your heartache and long toil have touched and influenced the lives of many. You deserve to find some happiness and serenity. We wish all the best to you and yours. Take care.
    John and Deb

  • Dear NBL Readers — take heart!

    It doesn’t appear as tho NBL is going to disappear today or tomorrow. That is not what Guy wrote: “I’ll be posting infrequently in this space.”

    So, until he says and/or does otherwise I think it only fair to take heart at what he did not say. To wit,
    this particular “Fading Away” post, along with our ability to continually add comments to it, may live a rather long life… until the next time he posts a message of his own or some other worthwhile messenger.

    Secondly, the NBL Forum appears as tho it too will continue to exist (at least until I get my eviction notice), and for those so inclined there are interesting existing spaces there to visit (and revitalize as may be needed), as well as plenty of available ones to open to suit your own interests, pleasures, or torture chambers (take note Bud!) as desired!

    Why, Artleads has 35 pages going on various ‘Land Use’ issues; Viddaloo has 12 pages of ongoing updates on ‘Arctic Sea Ice Collapse’; Wren appears to have started the longest running thread on ‘Beach Art’ at 141 pages long!; and there are posts on ‘Plants, witchery, related subjects’ (somewhat dormant at the moment), the GoT ‘Fire and Ice’ books, music, and some philosophic interests as well.

    I am most inclined to be found polishing off the imaginary bar bottles while having my toenails polished to a sparkly sheen at Guy’s Beauty Salon / aka: Hayduke’s Monkey Lounge across the hall from here. Although of late I haven’t been posting much there because of real summer activities I’m out doing. But summer is drawing to a close, and winter winds will probably see me bellying up there more often. Especially if more customers decide to pop in to pop off. The more the merrier… well, sometimes.

    I have yet to break up any drunken brickbats or heated disputes over which brand of pomade is best, but who knows, with the right mix of clientele drawn from these here quarters, it could get interesting. Not that I am interested in seeing my joint overrun with the ne’er-do-wells and reprobates I find some of you to be.

    Still, all the doors are wide open across the way and everyone here is capable of entering any one of the fine establishments in the Forum and adding their 2¢ to the scene, or, better yet, opening one of your own! There is no need to await Guy’s next message to spout off; if you’ve got something to say, to get off your chest, want to rant about, or post your version of ‘apocalypse now’, I say: have at it!

    Not only may “your journey be rewarding”, better yet, may you be rewarded for daring to journey forth to NBL’s Forum!

  • Thanks, Guy. Come on through Charleston, SC and we’ll get you set up for a public talk. Each day I wake up, knowing it’s one day closer to collapse, and each day sucks for starting that way. I’m torn between “The Road,” as worst case, or “Searching for a Friend for the End of the World.” Should I get a gun, to off my own family before we’re looted, raped, and eaten? Should I worry about telling anyone around me, since we can’t do anything anyway? It’s like that line in “The Matrix”: “ignorance is bliss.” We’re so fucked, and it was all mostly avoidable. Hopefully when it happens, everyone, you’re around loved ones, and have a gracious and dignified exit. Hopefully we have 20 years, instead of just 2.

  • Will we ever learn the answer to Kevin Moore’s 64 Quadrillion dollar question:

    What is the instantaneous radiative forcing value ( global heating potential ) of methane in terms CO2 equivalent?

    It doesn’t seem to be listed anywhere. EPA lists a value after 100 years of decay, 20 times. Does it really matter what is in a hundred years? Some more complex gases are listed up to 11,000 times CO2e but the timeline is not included. These gases are in relatively low quantities.

    I don’t know enough chemistry to put up an argument but Kevin has said that since the concentration is increasing the decay factor isn’t really relevant. This makes sense to me, and considering Kevin’s further reasoning that the substances which cause the decay are also being used up. Not sure if chemical reactions caused by sunlight are generating more of the decay causing hydroxyls, or whatever they are. If this is the case, are they in significant proportions?

    Not sure where to find the reference where this was discussed, maybe Arctic News? Malcolm Light may have given a guess as high as 1000 times for the instantaneous value, and some others over 300. If this is the case it would help to explain how all the ice is disappearing so fast, and also maybe why this number seem to be so mysterious perhaps.

    As Kevin has said, it should be a straightforward lab experiment to determine it.

    If it is somewhere on the order of 1000 then the 1.86 parts per million ( instead of the usual 1860 parts per billion ) would give us a CO2e for CO2 and CH4 of 400 + 1860 = 2260.

    Is it possible Mark Austin may be able to get some help with declassifying this? Maybe some of the crew from the Skunkworks haha?

  • Thank you, Guy, for all that you have done – i think most of us were expecting this sooner rather than later. I for one am glad you are emphasizing your own sanity over all other considerations. And that homestead of yours no doubt requires a lot of your attention.

    I quote Eliot again (Four Quartets: Little Gidding), and wish you, guy, nothing but the best.


    What we call the beginning is often the end
    And to make an end is to make a beginning.
    The end is where we start from. And every phrase
    And sentence that is right (where every word is at home,
    Taking its place to support the others,
    The word neither diffident nor ostentatious,
    An easy commerce of the old and the new,
    The common word exact without vulgarity,
    The formal word precise but not pedantic,
    The complete consort dancing together)
    Every phrase and every sentence is an end and a beginning,
    Every poem an epitaph. And any action
    Is a step to the block, to the fire, down the sea’s throat
    Or to an illegible stone: and that is where we start.
    We die with the dying:
    See, they depart, and we go with them.
    We are born with the dead:
    See, they return, and bring us with them.
    The moment of the rose and the moment of the yew-tree
    Are of equal duration. A people without history
    Is not redeemed from time, for history is a pattern
    Of timeless moments. So, while the light fails
    On a winter’s afternoon, in a secluded chapel
    History is now and England.

    With the drawing of this Love and the voice of this

    We shall not cease from exploration
    And the end of all our exploring
    Will be to arrive where we started
    And know the place for the first time.
    Through the unknown, unremembered gate
    When the last of earth left to discover
    Is that which was the beginning;
    At the source of the longest river
    The voice of the hidden waterfall
    And the children in the apple-tree
    Not known, because not looked for
    But heard, half-heard, in the stillness
    Between two waves of the sea.
    Quick now, here, now, always—
    A condition of complete simplicity
    (Costing not less than everything)
    And all shall be well and
    All manner of thing shall be well
    When the tongues of flame are in-folded
    Into the crowned knot of fire
    And the fire and the rose are one.

  • Haydukes Monkey

    Thanks for the mention of the Land Use forum thread. I’m sure Vidaloo would thank you too for the Arctic Ice one. :-) I’m very hard to deal with and turn a lot of people off, but I hope those with thoughts about land development and planning will grace the site with their observations and concerns. If I don’t say anything in response, it will be only to refrain from getting in my own way, not that I don’t very much appreciate others’ participation. Billy T recently posted a hugely valuable scientific breakdown of how much land use affects climate change (40%). He just dropped in and placed it there. Didn’t hang around for my opinion. :-)

  • R Callaghan:

    You might have been referring to me. I wasn’t thinking of you when I made that, in hindsight, regrettable statement. In general I find the majority of people, although deluded, are basically kind and would like to do the right thing. This in spite of all the conditioning from the matrix, which ensures they are indirectly not being kind to other species. I would guess that most people admire your gumption in that you managed to overcome a lot of adversity as you have said.

    I did the opposite, and squandered my opportunities. University was basically free in this province when I got out of high school, and high quality, but I had very naively decided I had better things to do with my time.

    But yeah, you do overpost when you’re in your cups, as you have admitted yourself.

    My other complaint I had was you referring to data about how things will be in 2100, which isn’t the main premise on this site. But you seem to have corrected that in your latest list.

    Some of your jokes are pretty good..

  • @John
    It is quite an ocean of information and I haven’t had the enough time yet to read it through.
    But one article caught my attention. http://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pbio.1002167

    Most important thing for survival is an ability to get food. So I find the mentioned article by far the most direct analysis of that issue – how the conditions will be in the year 2100. in an scenario of “business as usual”. That means about 4 degrees warmer.
    We may fast forward it to 2050. or 2030. – and say that is how the conditions are likely to be then.

    First thing that caught my eye was that the impact of it is not at all uniform around the globe. Moreover – for certain areas it’s effects are even positive (in the short term I guess)! They’ve analyzed temperature, precipitation patterns and made an estimation how it would affect growing periods of worlds staple food sources.
    It seems that most of Latin America, Southern US, Africa, Mediteranean regions of Europe, Middle East, India, Indochina, most populous areas of China and Indonesia will be very negatively to catastrophically affected by that event.
    On the other hand – Canada, Central and Northern Europe and especially Russia will be mostly positively affected.

    Areas worst affected are unfortunately most populous ones having at present over 4 billion inhabitants. And by 2030. there will be even more. When the food and water becomes too scarce, and temperatures too high to sustain any human existence – there will be vast migrations. Mostly in the direction towards US, EU and Russia.

    We are now witnesses of how hard it is for EU to cope with ever greater number of refugees from Africa and Middle East. And the similar goes to US. How will it look like when those immigration figures go over the roof – millions pouring in on a weekly basis?
    Together with ever-worsening global economy and various domestic problems I think that it would bring EU and US to their knees very soon. Russia, given it’s geographical distance from main refugee waves will fare much better… and may even become the last country still standing around the middle of this century.

    And as the climate change progresses for the worse probably peaking at 8-10 degrees like in Permian Extinction, Russia too will fail. That moment will “officialy” be the end of the civilization. By that time there would be probably less than a few dozen million people still alive with their numbers decreasing.
    But would that be the end of the human race – I truly doubt it will. At least not for several more generations to come.
    Certain northernmost areas as well as certain mountainous areas could still be able to provide for a small number of human beings.

    After reading many articles I’m 100% sure that the collapse of civilization and billions of dead human beings is at the gates.
    Starting on a massive scale probably as early as 2025.-2030.
    But even that immense die-out don’t necesarily mean that every human being everywhere will cease to exist.
    Previous extinctions may have brought the end of every life form over 100 pound weight – but never before were the humans in the middle of such event. Even though as a collective we are getting dumber and blinder – but when shit hits the fan – a single average human brain possibly contains more intelligence and resourcefullness than many entire species that went extinct in the past. What will polar bears do whaen they run out of ice?

    We are able to adapt to survival temperature conditions from -70 degrees to +50 degrees, from less than 0 meters above sea level to thousands of meters above sea level, we can eat almost every organic matter short of cellulose… And now, unlike thousands of years ago – we have a technology to help us survive. Not talking about Space Shuttles or similar stuff – but things like tools, basic machinery, simple processing equipment…

    It’ll sure be a miserably hard life, and there won’t be enough room for >99,9% of present population – but some people, somewhere – might have a good chance for survival.
    So, I believe that human race will almost get extinct, but not entirely. Not in a sense that there would be not a single human being left alive.

    But that hardly lessens the disaster we are facing as it will definitely be a horror and pain to live through times that lie ahead.
    But since the vast majority (most likely including everyone here and all of our families and friends) won’t make it – you may as well call it an extinction.

  • @Snowstormguy
    Nobody’s taken a whack at your premise, so I guess I will (in my uneducated and barely informed way.) Your premise of survivability seems to have overlooked two key points in the consideration of the NTHE scenario.

    1. When civilization hits the rhubarb, there are 400 nuclear plants that will lose containment without an electricity grid and a work force to maintain them. The resulting meltdowns will spew enough radiation to likely make the surface of the earth unlivable for most forms of life, everywhere. Also, the radiation causes chemical reactions in the atmosphere that strips the ozone layer away, which is what protects us from the highly toxic aspect of the suns radiation. I read a paper indicating a very high likelihood that the fukashima meltdown was responsible for what is now turning out to be a very large ozone hole that has appeared recently over the arctic.

    That was one reactor. Add 399 more, and, very likely poof goes all the life on earth.

    2. Have you studied any science looking into the ‘great dying’ some 250 million years ago, as evidenced in the geological record? That was cause by a severe global warming too, the only other warming that seems to match what we are doing anthropogenic wise to the planet this time around. During that extinction, life was knocked back to single cell life, period. Everything else died off, even insects and plants. Humans have a lot more complex needs than single cell life.

    Combine that previous warming record with all the nukes sitting there waiting to be breeched, and I don’t see a lot of hope for small pockets of human survivors. Seems like pooch-ville if you ask me. But, that’s just my interpretation of the data I’ve encountered.


    Lastly, I would ask if you aren’t just trying to hold onto some hopium for yourself, not that I would begrudge you for that. I just say that because you state how Russia holds hope for being a place of better refuge, and surprise … that’s where you live (or at least in a place very close to it.) Also, you state hope that very cold places might warm up and become very livable places, and surprise, you have retreated to a frozen mountaintop in the country where you live.

    All in all, you sound like your trying to find hope that you have lucked out in choosing the perfect location to survive all of this. Hey, maybe you have, what do I know, right? However, I’d be willing to assert you haven’t found the perfect survivable location, and won’t survive the great new dying any better than the rest of us.

    This ship is sinking. But good luck, I hope you do make it.


    Thanks again Guy for all you’ve done. :)

  • Guy,
    Words cannot express my appreciation for you, your work and what it has meant to me. I only wish we were able to spend more time interacting together. Ice cream is on me next time I see you. With regard to (not) fading away…

    Take good care of yourself Guy. I’ll see you around.



  • Best wishes, Guy.

    I’ve been reading NBL for many years – almost since the beginning. Since I discovered this site, it has been the first site I go to every day. I’ve read and re-read your ever expanding essay many times, and will continue to do so. You are a fine teacher and I’ve learned a lot from you and the many fine commentators and guest essayists who have graced your site.
    There is no doubt in my mind that you have had a profound effect on many of your readers. Certainly so in my case.

  • Guy (AKA – tall dark and Doomy) you really got a conversation started and I think that counts for something, especially with many young folks who never comment here. I hope you keep your promise and do some living – Drip the D.


  • Guy,

    While you are enjoying your living in a more relaxed configuration, please study up on fingerprints.

    Sea level change fingerprints.

    They can and do inform about the most non-intuitive rises and falls one could imagine.

    You would get it.

    (The Evolution of Models – 12)

  • What has happened to Tom? No word from him in the last several threads.

  • @LWS

    1. It all depends on how quickly civilization will collapse. If it happens “overnight” – then we’re gone. But it’s more likely that it would take several years.
    Worst case scenario is an escape of radioactive particles to the atmosphere and large bodies of water.
    Radioactive matter came out of the ground and that is the place to put it back. It is an enormous venture but if the material could be stashed deep enough at a geologically suitable location then the radiation could be more-less well contained.
    There are ways to dispose radioactive waste today – not nearly perfect but probably good enough to avoid global catastrophe.
    If there is at least one bit of reason left it will be done that way.
    On the other hand, if nothing is to be done about it, than we’re toasted.

    2. Permian extinction event, though it was the worst ever, didn’t reduce life to single cells?! It killed 96% of marine life and about 70-80% of land vertebrae species. It killed most insect species…
    But, there were some human sized survivor species: Lytrosaurus, Dimetrodon…
    Plant life before Permian period that was mostly consisted of giant swamp forests that needed spores for reproduction was mostly exterminated also – but from there evolved the plants of today which are more resistent to higher temperatures and droughts.
    I really don’t understand where you’ve picked up the idea that Permian extinction went that far – if that was the case, than it would take much more than 20 million years to get to dinosaurs. If that was the case – even today the Earth would still be inhabited only by very small organisms.

    Human civilization as we know it will inevitably fail… I will be an apocalypse with billions dead. Earth’s biodiversitly will be devastated but not beyond possibility of survival of certain number of humans and several smaller species.
    If we add in an irresponsible treatment of NPP the odds get much worse.

    But it is actually possible to survive even an 400 meltdown scenario – less than 20% of radioactive particles travel beyond 2000 kilometers. As of today, only 4 nuclear reactors are in the southern hemisphere – given the stable wind patterns resulting from Earths rotation – most of the radioactive particles will stay at either side of the equator. I’ve seen a simulaion of such event somewhere and the conclusion was that there would be certain places where radiation will be 100 times weaker than in US or Western Europe – it would increase the risk of cancer and genetic mutations but won’t kill instantly.

    Chernobil blew off and radioactive clouds went over my country (about 1500 kilometers away) – and still nothing special happen around here. There hasn’t been measurable increase in radiation-related diseases.
    But in the case of massive meltdowns Europe is not the place to be for sure.
    On the other hand, in Chile you might have a chance.
    So it’s the “location, location, location”.
    Unfortunately for me, I live in Europe so I would most likely die in such event.

    That is my point. Me and you and 99.999% won’t survive but some lucky folks somewhere just might.

  • I just noticed a comment from Tom on Dredd’s site.

  • Jimbot

    ‘Will we ever learn the answer to Kevin Moore’s 64 Quadrillion dollar question:

    What is the instantaneous radiative forcing value ( global heating potential ) of methane in terms CO2 equivalent?’

    It seems that the answer is no.

    After pushing and probing for about a year, I gave up. Even Paulo Beckwith -supposedly leading researcher into methane atmospheric chemistry let me down after I had emailed him and had telephoned him and discussed the matter.

    I now see everything through very different eyes from how I saw them 18 years ago, when I commenced my personal journey of discovery of how the system really works: a session with Maurice Williamson, MP for Pakuranga, promoter of free-for-all consumerism, road transport, covering everything with concrete and asphalt, and all the other bollocks described as -sustainable development’.

    All the major institutions are rotten to the core, and staffed with fuckwits who are more concerned with their own career opportunities or speculative opportunities than their children’s futures. The system is geared to rapid destruction of the systems that make life-as-we-know-it possible. And the maniacs who are in control -for the most pert financially and scientifically illiterate- will not desist from their insane policies of ruination of everything that matters, ignoring all the scientific and economic evidence presented to them in their pursuit of dysfunctional ideology that enriches those who make the decisions in the short term.

    Sadly, it is just as I described it 15 years ago: the Titanic’s steering gear is welded into position to prevent any change of course and the captain refuses to slow down.

    Now, 15 years alter, with a hole punched in the hull and people in the lower compartment drowning, the captain is still obsessed with full steam ahead, and has no thought whatsoever of making any preparations for the inevitable sinking.

    My public activism peaked between 2003 and 2012, but has not entirely faded away. Can I be bothered to go to the Grey Power meeting, at which Liam Hodgetts, NPDC Policy Managers (and whom I have already has two meetings to discuss reality), will undoubtedly lie to the audience about the future of the district?

    It’s all a matter of timing. The time to get ‘lifeboats’ built and launched is pretty much over. Those who scoffed and mocked and ignored the numerous warnings are shortly going to pay the price for their ignorance ands stupidity. It has always been that way throughout history. Hence, I cannot be bothered enduring the ‘slings and arrows’ of uninformed fools who still think those ‘in authority’ should be respected and listened to.

    Here in NZ climate chaos has not been as devastating as elsewhere: all the cool water that surrounds NZ ameliorates matters to some extent.

    However, it is the economic tsunami that is beginning to wake the sleepers, with the Kiwi dollar now down from 88 cents US to 64, and the dairy, oil and engineering sectors looking extremely shaky. The job losses and suicides have commenced.

    There has been discussion about the El Nino causing widespread drought and further hammering of the NZ dairy sector. Yet to be seen. Long term forecasts seem to be becoming increasingly unreliable.


    I as more familiar with the Rolling Stones version, and thought to post it when I saw the title ‘Fading away’ but somehow the lyrics didn’t quite fit, so decided not to. However, your posting is appreciated.

    Artic ice cover etc.

    Back in March it sure looked as though 2015 would be ‘the year’. Yet things always take longer than we anticipate. September ice cover will be low, but not exceptionally low. On the other hand, who would have thought that previously damp old-growth forests in the northwest would be going up in smoke?

    The pre-September collapse seems to have been halted. Nevertheless, the coming months are certain to bring renewed mayhem. Ponzi schemes always collapse, and present global financial-economic arrangements amount to the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time.

    With spring on the horizon, I’m looking forward to recovery from illness, now in its 7th week, with nerve damage apparent, and bodily repair hoped for.

    Woops, there’s that word hope.


    I hope you can keep things ticking over here, even if you do not feel inclined to expend too much effort. As I have said before, for many year NBL has been an oasis of sanity in a world gone mad.

  • @Snowstormguy
    Thanks for the additional info on the great dying. I reviewed some reading about it, and I had remembered incorrectly. The quote I was remembering had stated the die off had nearly taken things back to single cell life. I had omitted the ‘nearly’ part. Thanks for topping me up.

    Although, I don’t know if I trust those stats on radioactivity. The Fukashima meltdown seems to be a lot worse than we are being told. (ie. Salmon with lesions, seals on the western side of the pacific dying from lesions and sores, etc.) And then there is the whole ozone thing, which is pretty critical to life as we know it. That’s the whole problem with nuclear; there is nowhere to safely dispose of all that stuff, that’s why it all sits on site in pools. And it has to be managed for decades and decades and decades. Even a semi quick collapse would probably not be enough time to deal with it.

    And, with the biosphere, where everything is interdependent, there is a point where things can be destabilized to the point where it all simply just collapses. But I suppose there is a chance someone could survive, it is a possibility. Thanks for the extra info.

    I guess ever since I saw that photo on the internet of that elephant in Africa that had is entire face hacked off with machetes, and had just been left to kneel there stunned in the middle of a road, dazed and confused. Well, it’s scenes like that which left me hoping that human extinction would be absolutely thorough and complete. But, maybe some asshat will squeak through the bottleneck. Who knows, but I hope not.

    I know that wasn’t a very loving statement I just made. I must be having one of those grumpy days today, LOL. :(

    Cheers Snowstormguy.

  • Gail (the Actuary) Tverberg ditches her former conservatism about economic collapse. She now foresees a rapid collapse. Read her post from today here.

  • ‘the NBL Forum appears as tho it too will continue…’ -h. monkey

    i’ve never been tempted to visit the forum because i’ve always found this blog to be more than enough to try to keep up with, what with all the comments and links posted, more than enough to learn, more than comprehensive enough in the span of topics covered on a more or less regular basis.

    anyway, i think the monkey (wo?)man was right on with his comment to just chill, everyone. guy didn’t say he’s going away, or discontinuing nature bats last. he just seems to be taking tim mcgraw’s father tug mcgraw’s advice to ‘live like u were dying’ a bit more to heart. who can blame him? our days have always been numbered, so surreally nothing’s changed. it’s always been a good idea to ‘smell the roses’ as much as possible along life’s path… perhaps a break from work will revitalize him. at any rate, it’s not the end of the world!

    guy also wrote he’ll continue to publish worthy guest essays in this space, so perhaps now the burden shifts more on the rest of us to keep him supplied with a more or less steady stream of worthy guest essays, to help keep the discussion fresh/active. shouldn’t be too hard to do.

    ‘We’re so fucked, and it was all mostly avoidable. Hopefully when it happens, everyone, you’re around loved ones, and have a gracious and dignified exit. Hopefully we have 20 years, instead of just 2.’ -there are no words

    i don’t think it was avoidable. sheeple don’t choose to be flawed. it’s just what we are. flawed, limited, mortal beings… as for the rest of the quote, beautiful sentiment, agreeable conclusion. despite all our bitching and moaning, we all more or less cherish life. i think we’re addicted to the drama, as long as it doesn’t get too painful.

    ‘What has happened to Tom?’

    don’t know. hopefully nothing too bad, and he’ll be back soon.

    ‘All the major institutions are rotten to the core, and staffed with fuckwits who are more concerned with their own career opportunities or speculative opportunities than their children’s futures. The system is geared to rapid destruction of the systems that make life-as-we-know-it possible. And the maniacs who are in control -for the most pert financially and scientifically illiterate- will not desist from their insane policies of ruination of everything that matters, ignoring all the scientific and economic evidence presented to them in their pursuit of dysfunctional ideology that enriches those who make the decisions in the short term.’

    kiwi kevin moore, i couldn’t agree with u more, or say it any better. the same applies for the vast majority of your postings to this blog over the (recent) years. with this blog, it seems guy has attracted and brought together a great meeting of (doomer) minds. so thanks again, guy et.al..

  • **Gail (the Actuary) Tverberg ditches** Wow. It just does not interest me to “grade” individuals about how far they are on the nthe quotient. I do watch and see who evolves as the years go by from the enlightened thought that shit is going to hit the fan and watch how they add new data to that belief. I try not to think how few there are that believe and talk about how hideous the next few “decades” might be.

    Funny, how I was thinking about TOD’s (TheOilDrum) frozen status and what might happen here, and then to hear about Gail stepping it up a notch.

    But after awhile, it really isn’t going to matter. Look up at the stars while you can.

    Smoke again from SK floating over here and I can hear the diluted bitumen bomb trains roll past going over the Red River.