Key Events of 2015

McPherson was interviewed by Barry Vogel for Radio Curious on 13 December 2015. The result was described on Tuesday, 15 December 2015 and can be accessed here.


Key Events of 2015

by J. Z. Colby

To those of us who are living through it, the current year may seem like it is moving slowly, compared to the pace of events in movies and television shows where an entire crisis and resolution must unfold in two hours or less.  But compared to most of human history, the year just passing has been a frenetic blur.

As many of you may know, I maintain a timeline of key events concerning Climate Change, which is, in my opinion, the most important thing happening in the world today.  I also keep an eye on Peak Oil, Resource Depletion in general, and of course The Economy, but none of those will directly affect the Earth and the many other creatures on it; they are human concerns.  Climate Change, on the other hand, affects everyone and everything.  For that same reason, in my timeline I primarily list physical processes, and only include the very most important human political events.

It is always a challenge to know where, in the timeline, to put a process that has roots in the past, and will continue to evolve in the future, without getting into lengthy expositions and histories.  But since I most often write for young adults, I aim to keep things as concise as possible.  Hence, I have to pick a year in which to stick each item that will allow easy understanding, without bending the truth too much.

So, enough said.  Here’s my list of the key Climate Change events of 2015, with the chance, I admit, of needing to squeeze in something else later on.  I welcome any opinions on the items I have included, or omitted, the wording of each, and the placement.  Anyone who needs to threaten me with jail time for informing young adults about Climate Change can, of course, do so.  After a life spent as a mental-health therapist, my skin’s pretty thick.


CALIFORNIA DROUGHT: The drying of southwestern North America enters a critical phase in which rivers no longer provide enough water for drinking, irrigation, and hydro-electric power.

OCEAN HEATING: Excess ocean heat is creating an “El Niño” (or worse) condition in the Pacific Ocean, normal up-welling of nutrient-rich deep water is being disrupted, and large marine animals are starving as krill, anchovies, sardines, etc., vanish. From heating and acidification, about half the coral reefs of the world are now dead or dying.

LAUDATO SI: The encyclical of Pope Francis clearly draws the battle lines between those who want a livable planet and a just human civilization, and those who would sacrifice it all for short-term comfort and profit.

MASS MIGRATIONS: Displaced by wars, droughts, and increasing general poverty, large numbers of people begin to leave the Middle East and North Africa for Europe and other destinations.

ARCTIC: Although the Arctic Ocean did not become ice-free this summer, almost no thick multi-year ice remains. With the global Methane level at 1846 ppb, and readings over the Arctic up to 2629 ppb, evidence mounts of a Methane spike that could easily trigger abrupt climate change.

PARIS UNFCCC COP-21: At the 21st Conference of the Parties of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, most countries agreed to vague and non-binding greenhouse gas emissions cuts that are believed to limit global heating to about 3°C. The conference’s main contribution may have been a broad recognition that 1.5°C is a meaningful target, not 2°C.


Special note about OCEAN HEATING: I’m not convinced it’s just an “El Niño,” which is why I put “(or worse)” after it.



The entire timeline, which starts in the year 2000 and includes future items grouped roughly when I think/fear they might happen, can be seen at:

NEBADOR Book Nine: A Cry for Help, a fictional work about Climate Change that is the last book of the NEBADOR young-adult science fiction series (except for an anthology coming out next year) can be downloaded free (by order of the Muses) at:

I will receive comments posted here, and anyone who wishes to correspond may see my email address at:

Comments 64

  • ‘I also keep an eye on Peak Oil, Resource Depletion in general, and of course The Economy, but none of those will directly affect the Earth and the many other creatures on it; they are human concerns.’

    I disagree entirely. Surely the rate at which humans involved in industrial civilization attack the biosphere and the geochemical systems that make life-as-we-know-it possible is intimately connected to the price and availability of fossil fuels (and liquid fuels in particular).

    Every aspect of ‘planet killing’, from mass transport, to mining, to international shipping of consumers goods, to use of chainsaws to fell forests and jungles is dependent on the price and availability of fuels.

    The current combination of manipulation of supply and manipulation of pricing is having the effect of promoting consumption, and is therefore hastening the ‘charge off the cliff’ via overpopulation, overconsumption and excessive carbon dioxide emissions.

    Although abrupt climate change and the coming mass starvation are arguably they only issues worth discussing and formulating strategies for (as I have been saying for almost a decade to deaf ears around here), the ultimate magnitude of both catastrophes is intimately coupled to the peaking and subsequent decline in global oil supply (especially the matters of declining EROEI and decline of quantity of internationally traded oil) and the economy in general.

    We are enduring dire consequences of suicidal economics, which is why I have taken such a great interest in it over the past couple of decades.

    WTI $35.10, Brent $37.50 a barrel. Both ‘should be’ at least ten times the current price.

  • All the best dude.

    Here’s another key event.

    Alex gets his star wars on ecoshock.

    The Himalayans And China Heating 2X Faster Than Earth

    China Will Destroy Earth Selling Sustainability from DieOff

  • ‘they only issues’

    the only issues

  • .
    The Ocean Is Contaminated by Trillions More Pieces of Plastic Than Thought

    So we find out that instead of just being fucked, we are actually super duper fucked.


    I have a buddy who does that crazy environmental work thing for oil and gas companies. He said in the last few years there have been stupid amounts of accidental spills, like reality has spun out of control or something. It’s all spinning up quicker and worse than one would have though was even rational.

    The, ‘we just found out it’s actually much worse than we thought’ path we find ourselves on really stands out to me these days. Have we increased our velocity as we now approach the valley floor after our departure from the cliff awhile back, and is this reflecting now in our objective world somehow?

    Time to hold onto your hat I think. ;)

  • .
    Addendum to my post : I guess I’ll call it ‘having the exponential experience.’

    Or maybe, ‘experiencing exponentiality.’

    I guess this means I’m an exponentialist now.

  • Peak population

  • COP21 COP21 COP21 COP21 COP21

  • One cannot help wondering whether the Fed’s rate rise was designed to crash the system. After all, the US economy is in the worst state it has ever been in, and if the Fed actually wanted to keep the show on the road via increased debt creation it would have shifted to negative interest rates, as has occurred in numerous other countries.

    There have been ‘brace for impact’ warnings for over a decade, and those saying ‘100% certain’ may well be offering yet more well-intentioned hyperbole.

    However, there are numerous indicators that suggest this time it really is different.

    WTI $34.87, Brent $36.94, US natural gas $1.75. Hmm?

    How low can they go before the system goes kaput?

  • The intention has always been to go to negative interest rates. This is just a ruse, a show of effort, another tool to fool the public. The inevitable is just around the corner. These greedy bastards have to pull the ultimate cord on the hangman’s platform to add to their trillions. No turning back now.

    There is nothing anyone can do. Very few ARE in control at this point for a cruel and bloody end. The irony is that they are taking themselves down too. We should have asked the Bolsheviks what to do long before this.

  • The Yeast Cells, Benjamin the Donkey!

  • Biowar = potential step toward extinction. CRISPR/Cas9 is a powerful system that enables researchers to manipulate the genome of target cells like never before. This section will provide a general framework to get you started using CRISPR/Cas9 in your research. Although we will focus on using CRISPR in mammalian cells, many of these principles apply to using CRISPR in other organisms. First, consider the genetic manipulation that is necessary to model your specific disease or process of interest. Do you want to:

    Generate complete and permanent loss of gene expression or function (i.e. knock-out)?
    Express a mutated version of the gene (e.g. point mutant)?
    Increase or decrease expression of a target gene?

    Once you have a clear understanding of what you are trying to do, you are ready to start navigating the different reagents that are available for your particular experiment.
    Select Your Desired Genetic Manipulation

    Different genetic manipulations require different CRISPR components. Selecting a specific genetic manipulation can be a good way to narrow down which reagents are appropriate for a given experiment. Make sure to check whether reagents are available to carry out your specific genetic manipulation in your specific model organism. There may not be a perfect plasmid for your specific application, and in such a case, it may be necessary to customize an existing reagent to suit your needs.

    from the hundreds of dead monkeys at Fort Detrick to the spectacle of Seventh Day Adventist soldiers, the vaccinated volunteers in Project Whitecoat, strapped to chairs amid cages of animals in the Utah sunlight as Q fever aerosols are blown over them. Most chilling are the mock scenarios played out in urban areas: light bulbs filled with simulated BW agents being dropped in New York subways, men in Washington National Airport spraying pseudo-BW from briefcases, and similar tests in California and Texas and over the Florida Keys.

  • Back in 2013, Aleppo was under a similar assault, Sarin gas, blamed on the Damascus government, a “red line” that nearly brought on an American air assault against Syria. When it was discovered that the Sarin gas had been produced by an American research facility in Tbilisi, Georgia, later subject of a Russia Today documentary banned in the US, and smuggled into Syria witnessed by a Press TV film crew headed by Serena Shim (murdered in Turkey), America stood down.

    The current attack, coinciding with both the refugee crisis in Europe and the large scale military operations that are cleansing Aleppo Province of coalition backed “moderate terrorists,” is in all probability what brought the Pentagon to the point of taking out Aleppo’s water purification facilities. America’s goal was to start a cholera epidemic in one of the largest cities in the Middle East, driving tens of thousands of refugees into the middle of a massive military operation against terror groups the Pentagon has been playing with for some time.

    Thus far, however, the Pentagon plan has been a failure. Were it more successful, up to 100,000 refugees may have fled into Hatay Province, Turkey, infecting up to a million more there in a region clogged with refugees.

    You see, cholera is a “gift that keeps on giving,” a massively infectious disease. A dozen cholera patients can overburden any clinic or even regional hospital. A dozen cholera carriers can, within days and under the right conditions, war and refugees for instance, recreate conditions not seen since the Middle Ages.

  • My sense of 2015 is that the public’s is finally starting to get a bit anxious about climate change. A dread is developing that can’t be shook off – the creeping realization that this is serious and there’s no way out. These thoughts are largely inchoate at this point, but are lurking in the subconscious occasionally rising to the fore. Mass panic will ensue once our fate becomes apparent to all. It shan’t be long by my reckoning.

  • Howdy Mark:

    RE: Bio War

    How about this: it’s really a health center for Mr Lugar pets.

    “In June, the Russian Foreign Ministry accused the US of encircling Russia with bioweapons labs, as well as obstructing international efforts to eradicate biological weapons.

    One of Russia’s particular concerns is the Richard G. Lugar Center for Public and Animal Health Research, a research facility for high-level biohazard agents, located near Tbilisi, Georgia, a CIS member and Russia’s neighbor.

    “American and Georgian authorities are trying to cover up the real nature of this US military unit, which studies highly dangerous infectious diseases. The Pentagon is trying to establish similar covert medico-biological facilities in other countries [in Russia’s neighborhood],” the Russian ministry said in June.

    At the time, Moscow also blamed the US for derailing “decades of international effort to strengthen” the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC), a 1972 international treaty aimed at eradicating bioweapons worldwide.”

  • Addressing Emergent Threats

    National Biodefense Analysis & Countermeasure Center collaborates with the Department of Defense and National Institutes of Health to plan and conduct research to address gaps and needs in biodefense. For example, NBACC worked with other federal agencies to provide characterization and analysis of potentially dangerous pathogens that could pose a threat to the Homeland Security Enterprise.

    NBACC also coordinates with other national laboratories to enhance research capabilities, share lessons learned, and provide training more efficiently.

    Please notice that most Federal Job descriptions include working for the security of our corporate partners. USA, China, Russia and all countries are financed by multi-national conglomerates.

    ENTERPRISE means allegiance to global military-industrial network. The 2016-17 5.6 billion biodefense CONTAGION ACTION plan is updated United Nations Agenda 21 De-population event that can be implemented in many cities. There is a plan. Prior to talking about this, I have submitted previous cases in portions here on NBL for evidence. Careful research on this to prove a high probability for action awaits when extensive consumer populations are no longer of benefit to “enterprise”

  • Warmest November on record at .97 degrees above norm only beaten by October at .99 degrees

  • “India is the site for the most extreme forms of environmental degradation. It is home to 13 of the 20 most polluted cities in the world, according to the Centre for Science and Environment; its major rivers are degraded, silted and dead; its forests form only 23.7 per cent of land area, according to the World Bank; and it has one of the highest global figures for respiratory and water-borne diseases.

    Unfortunately, unable to take a stand on international ideals, India has always used abstinence as its moral calling, as was the case with North Korea, Bosnia, and Israel and Palestine. But climate change is another story. The persistent droughts in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, the melting of Himalayan glaciers, and the Kashmir and Chennai floods make it all too clear that we can no longer sit on the fence. We are quick to point out the sins of the rich world, but the real offences have a decidedly local origin: among them, overbuilding, constructing in shallow riverbeds and floodplains, uncontrolled urban migration, proliferation of illegal polluting industries, lack of environmental controls, no restrictions on transport and sale of cars, and absence of clear green alternatives. Without initiatives of its own or the ability to think independently, India is a disaster waiting to happen.

    Many in the developed world question whether climate change is natural or man-made; some even say it doesn’t exist. Sadly, we don’t have the luxury of choice. Whatever the arguments, a lifestyle of frugality and conservation is the only chance of surviving a future with few resources and fewer funds. When megacities the size of Delhi and Chennai become disaster zones, the time to think and react has already gone.”

  • Scientific Myths Without Being Rude

    In Nature there’s an article about science myths that will not die.

    The first one is about how early detection saves lives. Good, no?

    The last one is about human population growth is not exponential.

    Cohen says if we stop feeding cows grain and wasting food that there’s enough for everyone and that if we were just more equitable then everything will be just A-Okay.

    Wishful thinking for the holiday season.

    I can hardly tell the difference between satire and science.

    And where’s this week’s research telling me coffee and wine are good?

    Here’s another science myth by Bill Gaede about time. It’s easy to understand.

    Here’s Naomi Oreskes at Commie Dreams telling us that it’s a myth that renewable energy can’t meet all our needs by next week or so.

    Here’s Stephen Crothers at the 2nd Rational Physics Conference in Salzburg-Austria telling us that black holes and big bangs are bullshit. I love this guy, he’s funny as fuck and kind of reminds me of Kevin Anderson with his staccato lecture style.

    Physicists would ask you to believe in things more fantastic than the things priests tell you about life after death.

  • Incoherent Babble – please check figures.

    China And The Himalayas Heating 2 X Faster Than The Whole Earth

    Himalayan temperatures are warming 100% faster than earth at twice the median.

    China’s average temp rose 1.5°C in 100 years.

    Earth average temp rose 0.7°C in 100 years.

    China is heating 100% faster than earth at twice the median.

    50% of China’s rivers gone since 1990.

    75% of their lakes and rivers are poisoned.

    60% of their groundwater is poisoned.

    50% of their farm land is poisoned.

    40% of humanity in 15 years will be short of water.

    20% of humanity in 15 years will be severely short of water.

    90% of earth’s farmland will be gone in 50 years.

    20,000,000 acres of forest loss per year on earth.

    6 new nuclear plants per year will be built in China until 2030.

    2,000 new coal plants worldwide by 2030.

    20,000,000 new cars per year sold in China.

    25,000,000 miles of new roads worldwide will be built in 15 years.

    50 years for 100% world energy transition minimum.

    15 years for worldwide food, water and migration wars.

    30 years until runaway cascading mass extinction tipping point.

    50% of mega-cities are not suited for renewable energy because,

    50% of mega-cities face extreme weather, water, food dangers.

    China now controls 75% of the world solar panel market.


    If everyone in China lit their farts on fire at once,

    half the world would blow up.

    If we don’t reduce energy demand 50% in 50 years,

    life on earth will die and there will be no green energy future.

    We sent all our jobs to China and in 30 years we will have to replace all our new solar panels and wind turbines from there while we dance in the moonlight of a post-industrial paradise wilh rainbow ponies and unicorns. Shyaw!

  • Satish Musunuru Says:
    December 18th, 2015 at 1:07 am
    … India … pollution …

    Over time the is the number one polluter (Which Countries Are the Worst Carbon Polluters in History).

    The fingerprints tell an interesting story, don’t they (SLC Fingerprints R Us – 2)?

  • Elderly records are getting some respect (Weekend Rebel Science Excursion – 54).

    Maybe respect for the elderly will rebound too.

  • 2015 Was The Costliest Wildfire Season Ever

    Special Report: Toxic Firefighting Foam Has Contaminated U.S. Drinking Water

  • Army Seeks On-Demand Mass Casualty Biologics, Chem-Bio Closure Systems

    December 14, 2015

    U.S. Army Small Business Innovation for CBRThe U.S. Army has released new topics for potential funding via the Department of Defense FY2016 Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program.

    Focus areas related to Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) defense or biotechnology applications include:
    On-Demand Cell and Tissue Biologics for Mass Casualty Response

    On and off the battlefield, mass casualty events involving radiation exposure, chemical or biological agents, and explosive or incendiary devices can create a diverse range of injuries requiring both urgent and continuing care. Mass casualty events place enormous logistical strain on medical infrastructure, overwhelming personnel and rapidly depleting available medical supplies. This necessitates the stockpiling of medical supplies and therapeutics for on-demand use in the event of a healthcare surge.

    A capability is sought to ensure off-the-shelf, large volumes of stockpiled cell and tissue biologics that would be in high demand following a mass casualty event in military theaters of operation, in humanitarian response operations, or events on the homeland.
    Particulate Delivery System for Next-Generation
    – See more at:

  • Mark Austin, your comments just keep getting more and more “amusing.” My redneck, Faux Noise-listening, no-longer “friends” (not that they ever really were such) kept telling me it’s all the “fault” of the Chinese and their curse that we should “live in interesting times!” :)

  • DATA sheet. I never created an acct to comment on Reddit but I do read you there. Although nobody is completely in control of this out of control world, every month the NSA, ALEC, Rand & other Corporations would report on why CHINA actually has the most power to induce biological events in order to assume more control over croplands in Africa, Central Asia & North America.

    COLIN, your right. China’s small group of top leaders are less restricted to launch large scale events. In 2008 it cost Congressional candidates about 6 million each to win an election. High campaign costs are worth it because Congressional pay is pocket change compared to the big bucks deposited off shore by special interests. The largest campaign contributions on record come from China’s leaders in conjunction with multi-national corporations who has helped elect most US officials. China’s corporate kick backs are much more valuable to US Senators than their salary. In the past the British Empire once conquered and profitably colonized many countries by buying their leaders first. Now Xi Jinping is using the same formula to by US & Russian leaders.

    China’s leader Xi Jinping has extracted vast economic gains from cheap labor & raw materials. However all records indicate that his greatest power play, currently in action on all world markets, will come from China taking control of the World’s Reserve Currency. The Peoples Republic combined with North Korea has the largest standing army on Earth.

    Today, Forbes list of top corporations are small compared to the largest privately held companies. At the very top is Saudi Aramco which is worth 20 times the amount of the highest publicly offered company. Currently valued at 19 times greater than Apple, the P.R.C. has over 11 Trillion dollars in stock & bond holdings. Domestically the PRC has control over the publicly offered shares of CNPC, ICBC & China Mobile. The PRC also has a large interest in Walmart’s manufacturing division.

    PRC leaders Xi Jinping & Zhou Xiaochuan are also prime share holders in IBM, Apple & HSBC. Beyond Saudi Aramco, the world’s other largest private companies are Pemex, Venezuela Petroleos, Kuwait Petronas & Sonatrach. The PRC has investments in each in return for direct oil supplies. Even the gigantic wealth of Iran National oil is connected by a PRC shipping deal. Globally “China.Inc.” is the empire where the sun never sets. In the past few years China has acquired an enormous gold reserve. The the PRC holds approximately 3 trillion of the U.S. debt. Enough to give the PRC the power to pull the purse strings of Congress. Both the Republican and the Democratic political parties are registered corporations.

    Now in unison with Carlos Slim, Xi Jinping has direct control over the MexAmreiCAN technology corridor. 94% of all weapons being invented and distributed to worldwide military forces (even when they are at war with each other) come from the North American military-industrial complex. The Pentagon has central command; however, almost all weapons manufacturing is done by private contractors. Chemical, cyber & biologic systems are manufactured in Mexico & Canada. China, Canada & the USA are deeply interconnected by the IMF. The US dollar is still The World Reserve Currency but that could shift to China quickly.

    Money is a printed and minted product. From ancient Sumeria to Rome, using currency for trade has been so successful that money itself was often considered more valuable than the items it was supposed to represent. As long as you control the world’s most successful form of exchange you can control a military. Few soldiers remain at post for long without pay. Therefore the PRC has invested heavily in the USA to have leverage over international military powers and large private armies like “Blackhawk” in Iran. Last month Obama proceeded with the transition of control over the Internet to the PRC. The world wide web, cyber banking & Satellite system are the invisible economic network firmly controlling $ exchange with all countries. The PRC benefits when they can afford to buy our bond funds. Clearly Xi Jinping is calling the shots with both Putin & Obama. Because he stays in the shadows of China, Xi Jinping does not have to deal with voters.

    Since the PRC is the largest silent shareholder in the World Bank, Xi Jinping can use his financial control over allied forces to peacefully avoid warfare. However will he need an international distraction to depopulate North American citizens who are too difficult to sustain ??

    A new Global Currency is already printed and ready for distribution. Even Capitol Hill is pushing limits to break the US dollars value. The outstanding US debt to the PRC is a house of cards that threatens the World Bank. Yesterday, Jinping called for consolidation. “There will be a new world order..” are the exact words echoed by Obama and every President before him back to Nixon. TV clips of former world leaders calling for the “New World Order” are easy to watch on YouTube. Google wants you to watch because New World Order programming is being openly marketed. We are also making great progress with RFDI micro-chips in every credit card. Over 2 million test subjects have received digital implants.

    There is nothing secret about the NWO plan or Jinping’s call to collapse the US dollar and merge separate currencies into one International Monetary Fund. Rigged elections are a tiresome and expensive shell game for rulers. The NWO is the ultimate incorporation of everything under one umbrella administration. Taxes will increase because Xi Jinping knows the Chinese people will make no effort not stop him. But can he control the rest of the world’s people as easily as he does in China? Or will he need to enact a series of dramatic events including biowarfare to reduce world population? The full AGENDA 21 plan has been filed with the UN to enact world de-population. In Gastad the top 9 elite members of the Bilderburg Group voted to begin the Agenda 21 steps. A smaller population will be easier for the Illuminati to manage. The high energy rates of current worldwide consumption levels are having an impact on Atmospheric Jet Streams & Ocean acidification. Haliburton jet fuel additives that were supposed to assist with global cooling have had unexpected side effects. Haliburton manufactured fracking fluid adds to Methane escape & expanding the Southern hemisphere Ozone hole. Xi Jinping, Evelyn Rothschild, Buffet & the Bilderberg group population control plans are supposed to be completed by 2021, the USA must soon be hit by another “surprise” & financial cyber attack. Since Xi Jinping has the military capability to control 1/3 of the world’s population, he may use his Co-USA & Russian unified power to reduce the hardest to control portions of the global population. Over a 100 support documents and research papers on the bio-logic shift plan from major sources are avail. Interesting times ahead on the road to extinction.

  • Missing Tropical Animals Could Hasten Climate Change
    The decline of large animals in the forest impacts the storage of carbon in trees

  • José Maria Cardoso da Silva, an environmental geography professor at the University of Miami, said many studies, including some of his own research, have been published over the last 15 years showing that big, carbon-dense trees could go extinct without the large animals that spread their seeds.”

    So how do you stop poaching?

  • **So how do you stop poaching?**

    Why would you want to stop poaching?
    Poachers are people too.
    Stop the hate.
    Free the poachers.

  • “So how do you stop poaching?”

    By using lard or shortening.

  • Assume crash positions ?

    That’s what an ego is, an assumed crash position.

    Just joshin with yall.

    Its never going to be how any of us predict…

    ‘Heatwave Service for Australia’

    ‘Heatwave hits: Emergency crews fight fire on Melbourne’s outskirts’

    Make the best of your flight.

  • See the world while it lats…

    ‘Scientists brace for widespread coral bleaching on Great Barrier Reef in 2016’

    “Marine biologists studying the Great Barrier Reef are preparing for widespread coral bleaching early next year with an El Nino weather event predicted to turn many of the animals white.

    Earlier this year, scientists predicted that the world’s third mass coral bleaching will happen in early 2016 and damage about 38 per cent of the world’s coral reefs.”

    Yep, plane going down, fast.

    All the best.

  • This is the best description of “America” I have ever read: all true and more…but time doesn’t allow… it’s endless.

    Click on “Trump is America” by Andrew Kahn.

  • I looked up “Agenda 21” and found it it was a conspiracy scam. Its a pretty innocuous document from the 1992 Rio summit, filled with the usual non-binding commitments to do various environmental-friendly stuff that never quite gets done, that has been trumpeted by the American far right to be an agreement to implement the agenda of Satan or something like that.

    Mentioning it as something to be taken seriously is a good way to destroy the credibility of one’s own posts.

  • Thanks for the link Shep.

    Son Volt’s Medicine Hat:

    There will be droughts and days inundated
    Unveilings free from saturation
    Departures raised with no masquerading
    There will be teachers that die by their own hand
    Pundits that push headlong for atonement
    Friends and followers devoted to living
    There will be watchers that ply for new confines
    Those committed to society’s circles
    Unwary cogs with no cadence of virtue
    There will be right
    There will be wrong

    Drop of the hat, and it’s already started
    Just like that, and the deed is done
    What I’d give for that hat to be medicine
    The time is now to be on the run

    There will be machinations unforeseen
    Sleepwalking sense from a bad dream
    No promenade walk in the parkway
    There will be catchwords filled with infection
    Circulars to prop up occasion
    No golden mean to prop up the footsteps
    There will be levels on high hills that appraise
    There will be unchanging certainties
    Barometers that follow the stampede
    There will be right
    There will be wrong

    There will be signposts of indication
    Semaphore go signs and warnings
    Hailstone halos and country-blues wailings
    There will be strains that break out of straight time
    To pave with grace different roads to the same place
    No consequence to repay what’s been given
    There will be layers of means to an end
    Drawn-out days before resolution
    Dregs will rain down from all directions
    There will be right
    There will be wrong

  • @Tim

    LA Methane Plume

  • Caroline: thanks for the song (i enjoy Son Volt)!

    Aircraft contrails could be ‘unintentionally’ changing the atmosphere and exposing us to more solar radiation, researchers warn

    When contrails dissipate, they leave an icy haze behind
    Researchers think this is conducting unintentional geoengineering
    Icy haze is gradually whitening blue skies
    Small particles from air traffic are scattering sun light in atmosphere

    [iknowiknow – it’s the Daily Mail]

  • “’So how do you stop poaching?’”

    By using lard or shortening.”

    The better to cook them, I suppose.

  • ED – It is all a bit crazy which is why we look into it. NTE is also considered an absurd conspiracy. Yet I admire the amount of research MARK URBAN did reading & synthesizing 131 documents to warn of 6th Mass Extinction in progress. Agenda 21 has been revised by most countries 100 times since Rio. Please use a language converter and read the current version in Beijing 2014-15.

    This is only my voluntary sort-of-debriefing immediately after 14 years in service. Advanced Technology is the biggest reason almost everyone in every NATO gvt is sure they can fix Earth problems with inventions.

    Exxon Mobile is already running TV commercials about carbon reducing chemicals. As far as I can tell from all the comments from the start of NBL, I am the only one here with over a decade of Federal level work, who comments and agrees that multi-national efforts may not invent an easy fix to civilization as a consuming heat engine no matter what Energy we use or Heat Vacuums we flog in Popular Science magazines.

    Here is an example of 99% of official thinking why we are too advanced on so many levels to end in disaster: CAPE CANAVERAL physics conference, backed by NASA and the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, threw a huge spotlight on the idea of sending spacecraft far beyond our solar system — but how realistic is that idea? Check out what one of the world’s top experts on the subject has to say on “Virtually Speaking Science.”

    Marc Millis, the researcher behind NASA’s Breakthrough Propulsion Physics Project and the Tau Zero Foundation, was my guest on tonight’s show, which is available as a podcast via BlogTalkRadio and iTunes.

    Millis estimates that it’ll take 200 years to get in position for the first missions to stars beyond our own, but he says there are lots of small steps we can take starting tomorrow to “chip away” at the challenge. Experiments with solar sails have already started, and Millis says the next step there is to figure out the business case for more ambitious light-powered trips.

    There are all sorts of potential breakthroughs to consider: Could the recent reports of faster-than-light neutrinos point to a way to break the speed limit set by special relativity? Could laser experiments let scientists warp the fabric of space-time on a small scale? “What creates the properties of an inertial frame, and how does that relate to space travel?” Millis asked.

    Also a good article by Marlone Hood “Engineering Climate from Pariah to Saviour” There are also articles translated from China reading our reports on why the worst effects of climate change will be before 2c therefore they can wait and take less actions except where there is profit to copy and manufacture solutions. I’m sure you know Chinese national pride involves building a Hadron Collider much larger than CERN along with exporting dozens of cheap nuke plants to Africa.

    Then again maybe all plans made inside China or the Pentagon are a conspiracy. Oz Man is right that so many other surprise factors make it impossible to know anything. We can only report on what reports are written and considered. Please do read plan up-dates in all languages. Or maybe the Dept of Energy, Lockheed Martin, Microsoft and all weekly posted plans are invalid??? Luckily some are paid to do extensive research using translations apps. Otherwise this is all just lumps of coal in our stocking…except I do know some younger readers who are concerned yet they never comment since it can’t be done as a quick text message. From a gov pov the actuarial table puts WW3 before Climate Change factors as a dire concern. Many agendas & beliefs abound including the idea that Earth reality is too small to matter anyway.

    ROBERT CALLAGHAN – Much appreciation to you for the Collapse Data Sheet. Sorry my thanks to your China additions got cut off. This new copy before you post on NBL is more rapid fire than Abrupt C.C. HA!

  • The narrative for the past 15 or so years has been;

    1.Peak oil would progressively demolish globalized economic arrangements as the quantity of oil available declined after the peaking of conventional extraction (2005-2008).

    2. The price of oil would rise dramatically as easy-to-extract oil depleted and what remained of the economic system became increasingly dependent on hard-to-extract oil.

    3. The price of food would increase as world population increased and environmental and energetic factors made food production more difficult and expensive.

    4. Fiat currencies would unravel as debt levels rose and interest became unpayable.

    5. Dwellings in large cities would rapidly decline in value as the crucial inputs of food, water, electricity and fuel became insecure or unavailable.

    6. A wide range of occupations -especially those dependent on discretionary spending- would decline or vanish altogether.

    7. Worsening environmental factors -drought, storms, flooding, pollutions etc.- would lead to abandonment of many locations by humans.

    I admit that NZ is bucking some global trends as a consequence of ‘the stampede to perceived safety’, but when we read items such as that below we have to wonder how much longer trends, many of which are the very opposite of those expected, will continue. The answer, I suppose, very much depends on how much longer international oil prices remain extraordinarily low. As long as they do, we will have to endure ever more of everything that ‘kills the planet’.

    ‘Bernard Hickey picks out the five most important numbers for the New Zealand economy in 2015 that explain the dairy slump, the housing boom and an amazing jump in tourism.

    2015 has been a big year for the New Zealand economy, ranging from an extended slump for the dairy payout to a big boom for tourism and Auckland house prices. Here are the five big numbers for 2015 that explain those booms and busts.

    8 million tonnes

    That’s the reduction in dairy imports by Russia and China over the last year to 10 million tonnes. That’s a stunning 44% drop in one year.

    Everyone talks about the rise in dairy production by Europe and the United States as a major factor that halved the dairy payout to NZ$4.60/kg over the last two years, but Russia’s decision to ban European imports and China’s slowdown are big factors too.

    The dairy sector is the weakest in the economy right now and faces a second successive year of loss-making payouts. The slump is hitting Taranaki in particular because of the double whammy from lower oil prices, but the West Coast of the South Island is being hit hard too — along with the coal price slump.

    The South Island has been able to fall back on the Canterbury rebuild and the tourism boom, but could not ignore the body blow from dairy.

    New Zealand’s dairy production is forecast to fall 6% this year and many farmers that can’t rely on irrigation will be even more nervous as the El Nino bites this summer.


    That’s the rise in spending by Chinese tourists in the year to September to NZ$1.6 billion (see MBIE graph below), which isn’t that far behind dairy exports to China of NZ$2.3 billion in the year to September.

    Average spending per Chinese tourist is now up to NZ$3,700 per trip, which is only just behind the spending by Canadians, Americans and Europeans.

    Chinese tourists are now much more likely to be renting cars, camper-vans and are staying 7 to 10 nights, rather than just doing a cheap and nasty 72 hour mini-bus tour of the Rotovegas souvenir shops. Extra direct flights and a change in Chinese Government policy to discourage the cheap tours are factors, along with the much lower New Zealand dollar.


    That’s the number of houses that needed to be built in Auckland in the last year to keep up with total population growth of 43,500, which includes around 30,000 net migrants and 13,500 of natural population growth.

    That assumes three people per house.

    Unfortunately, Auckland only built an extra 8,900 houses in the last year. That means in the last year alone Auckland’s housing shortage increased by 5,600. It was already 25,000 at the beginning of the year.

    This shortage is at the core of the biggest social and economic problems in New Zealand’s biggest and fastest growing city.

    A massive building programme would go a long way to solving the housing affordability crisis, both for renters and first home buyers, and the housing poverty crisis that is the major factor in child poverty.

    A big surge of housing supply would make it easier for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates further next year, given it has financial stability concerns linked to the house price boom.


    That’s the amount the Reserve Bank cut the Official Cash Rate this year in response to the extended slump in dairy prices, persistently low inflation because of the high New Zealand dollar in 2014 and a big fall in oil prices.

    The four cuts in the rate between June and December completely reversed the bank’s hikes between March and July of 2014.

    The bank denied last year’s hikes were a mistake, but the heat is on Governor Graeme Wheeler to lift inflation back near the bank’s 2% midpoint of its target range next year from just 0.4%.

    Fixed mortgage rates fell more than 1% this year to as low as 3.99%, but some economists expect rates to fall even further next year given even lower oil prices and a higher New Zealand dollar than the Reserve Bank expects.


    That’s the increase in Auckland’s median house price to NZ$765,000 between November 2014 and November 2015.

    The election result’s removal of the prospect of foreign buyer restrictions and a Capital Gains Tax, along with the lower interest rates and record high net migration unleashed a perfect storm of house price inflation early in 2015. By May, the price shock forced the Reserve Bank and the Government to announce a twin-pronged attack on rental property investors and non-resident buyers.

    Tighter rules on lending to landlords, a new two year ‘bright-line’ test for speculative capital gains and forcing non-residents to disclose their identities eventually cooled the Auckland housing frenzy.

    The jury is out on how long it will stay cool given net migration is still at record highs and Auckland’s housing shortage grew by at least another 5,000 to over 30,000.’

  • Forecast for 12-25 for middle Alabama:

    77 degrees. whew! impossible, right?

  • @Tim

    Let’s hear from one of many PM Drips running the asylum.

  • shep 77F not unheard of in West L.A (lower Alabama) 6 inches (15 cm) in two hours in Mobile once on Dec 25, maybe 1994. Leonard had to wait in the the van in his wheelchar over an hour for the water to go down enough even with backing up the van to the ramp for the lift to not be submerged. 80F in Jan in DeSoto Forest in lower MS in mid 90’s also.

    Up here in Winterpeg on Thursday the first real snow came and I saw (first time in 2 weeks) 50 Canadian geese pinwheeling in a figure eight slanted to 10 o’clock, 90 degrees straight up and down and three abreast with little room between the birds in front-behind or birds to left or right in the middle lane of the 3 lane “roundabout”. Still a lot of open water on the Red River then, although much less today.

    Very late to still have geese, and I have never seen them fly like that, in two compact circles side by side, one counterclockwise and the other circle clockwise. Two weeks ago I was down in northern Iowa (for a funeral) and I went and watched geese for an hour at Rice Lake. I have been watching them for a few years.

    But, we’ll most likely be seeing a few other things we have never seen before, and many of them things we never predicted or imagined.

    Dr. Curry (video above) is no Dr. Barbara McClintock. or Dr, Jennifer Francis or Dr. Natalia Shakhova. They know better what it is to be more on the outside looking in.

    I finished up Silent Spring and am finishing up The First Circle (again, but the uncensored version) Truly, we were warned five and 6 decades ago.

  • I know it doesn’t mean anything when we look at individual readings but I couldn’t help noticing that recent daily CO2 numbers have tended to be around 3ppm above the same date a year ago, e.g. 402.13 versus 399.09. (0.7ppm per annum when Keeling commenced measuring)

    As most NBL followers know, the next 6 months are going to be very ‘interesting’.

  • Judith Curry

    With reference to record-breaking heat waves in Western Europe, and whether they should be blamed on man-made global warming (emphasis added):

    “Does it make more sense to provide air conditioning or to limit CO2 emissions. I vote for more air conditioning in these susceptible regions.”

    When she was questioned about potential conflicts of interest, this was her response to the Scientific American: [2]

    “I do receive some funding from the fossil fuel industry. My company…does [short-term] hurricane forecasting…for an oil company, since 2007. During this period I have been both a strong advocate for the IPCC, and more recently a critic of the IPCC, there is no correlation of this funding with my public statements.”


    If WWF isn’t making progress– it’s astonished by the vast recent uptick in poaching, erasing its former “progress”–it is instead failing, and failing miserably, to save the large African animals from extinction. The measures it calls for seem fairly rational, but believing that federal government will successfully enact these measures seems wildly delusional.

    They call for the strengthening of deterrence against poaching. I saw an MSNBC (?) about poaching that made it clear how opposing park rangers were outmatched by the poachers’ numbers and ammunition. The rangers were not funded by government. In any event, the relevant governments were paid off not to fight the poaching. The rangers’ only weapons were those they captured from poachers. Theirs was an underfunded private effort.

    So here’s what I’d suggest. All the wealthy-enough people in the West who care about saving the last big animals in the wild should buy guns from the arms manufacturers, and raise money to hire thousands of rangers to use them to deter poachers. The arms manufacturers oughtn’t to mind that, and they could make powerful allies. That’s assuming anyone seriously wants to stop the poaching.

  • In response to Mark Austin, fair enough. The elites seem to have drunk their own cool-aid and seem to think that they will come up with the tech that will fix things in time. Eliminating 95% of the human population to at least save 5% is the backup plan, if it exists.

    However, my impression isn’t of panic but of a doubling down on the status quo.

  • Arrrr…excuse me…

    Did I read…
    “OzMan is right” ?

    Ha Ha

    Oh no, on closer inspection it only pertains to one thing I wrote recently…dang.

    The more time passes I can only emphasise, with respect to world temperature increases, especially in the interior of continents, and sundry other details he,(and some others) had the courage to put out there ahead of the pack…

    Guy Mcpherson is right.

    Just sayin.

    I wont label the whole place Afraidia any more, after I was put straight by a contributor, but as usual, I’d like to emphasise also this great southern land.

    ‘Icehouse – Great Southern Land’


  • I’m baaaaaaaaaaaak folks, and don’t worry, humans are destined for total annihilation. That’s what I hope for, anyway. We’re the shit eating dogs of cannibalistic, unnecessary suffering, and we don’t deserve to exist. So Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, take a flying fuck at a rolling doughnut and don’t take any wooden nickles because you can’t invest them in the weapons industry. I think the people that post on NBL are the coolest cumquats on the planet and if it wasn’t for you’z guys I’d be a lonesome crippled loser in a world gone wrong. I’ll always be here, missing the gone and looking for the new. I can’t believe I’ve got somebody to get smeared with, with the stuff that’s going to hit the fan! It’s better than church! People say climate change is the new religion, but they don’t know the truth, it IS the new religion, and we’re all bowing and scraping before the fire, a cleansing fire that’s going to make it all new, and if nothing is all there is, than that’s fine, because nothing is better than us!

  • ED – Yes absolutely status quo first & probably forever (unless it dies by a thousand cuts.)

    my impression isn’t of panic but of a doubling down on the status quo.

    I also have very much the same impression overall from Washington D.C.
    That’s why it was so radical for Guy to present such extensive evidence from many scientific sources that Industrial civilazation is a heat engine, etc.

    My biggest concern from the perspective was our Nuclear Energy grid, which is susceptible to multiple threats. Earlier this yer I wrote in detail about Risks & consequence management of having more than one plant meltdown at a time. Many reason it could happen.

    Guy was also one of the first public speakers who helped bring attention to how the potential meltdown of 400 Fukishima’s is an NTE factor.

    Admittedly I am now out on a limb trying to bring any new factor to CALLAGHAN’s long list of collapse factors.

    As the Pentagon says: Climate Change is a threat multiplier. It would take 100 pages to explain it all, however, the new 5.6 billion Biodefense budget (7 new national labs) involved briefing us on how biowarfare, natural pandemics, new pathogens evolving from climate shifts & other emerging ocean & atmospheric changes might cause a panic riots or mass die off disruption to normally scheduled progress.

    Obviously a purposely induced mass pandemic it is not the highest probable thing compared to “Business as Usual”, but a manufactured Pandemic is still possible. Especially with the current acceleration of drug resistance diseases. If there is a first time major pandemic release in the USA it could impact the limited amount of nuclear physicists we have(along with their families) connected to managing the nuclear grid.

    That is why I spent my last months in service working on a special 75 page report concerning, who would most profit from inducing a mass pandemic. ????

    Personally I really liked the latest updates to Agenda 21. Reduced populations condensed into sustainable urban centers. Small apt living (nice designs in all the architectural renderings) Roof gardens, solar, you know all the best green stuff for healthy workers in compact communities.

    ARTLEADS would probably love the LAND USE vision of Agenda 21. I like everything about it. Oh but how to you get North Americans to comply?

    North Americans consume the most and have the most extreme rights to unlimited freedom to not cooperate. In the USA there would be fierce resistance. Unless some superpower like Xi Jingping decided his version of Agenda 21 would be helpful to Earth in a future time of overpopulation crisis. It is only a side plan “Just in case” the USA crop land & resources would better serve a planet with only a billion people on board. A weekend of bio-logics are the only way to safeguard the grid with vaccinated engineers, Medics & staff who understand and agree to the sudden de-pop event.

    Obviously an attempt at a controlled Pandemic would probably all turn into a big mess rather than a billion survivors dismantling the nukes and moving into tight communities with plenty of clean air & water left over. It’s a nice sustainability agenda on the surface but induced de-pop is not a serious concern. They were only looking at it as one of many scenarios. Took me awhile to read all the past 293 USA cases where Biowar was tested. Almost couldn’t believe it at first but biogenetics is actually a fairly large industry that could produce a Pandemic by accident or on purpose. Okay back to the status quo…I know. I know. Nothing bad will happen on this small world after all.

    KEVIN MOORE – You report so well on New Zealand & bigger picture. I’m sure you know this from Motley Fool but here it is for others; Cheap oil probably will not last —-
    there’s the X-factor that played into the fears stoking the 2008 surge in crude, which are the same storylines we see today, but at the moment, they’re hidden in the background. The U.S. is still making headlines with Iran over a nuclear deal that could lead to more oil flooding the market, or the deal could fall apart, leading to much less oil than expected hitting the market over the next few years.

    Meanwhile, in Nigeria, the militant Islamic group Boko Haram is growing in prominence and is threatening the oil industry in that country. Then there’s the rise of ISIS and the threat it poses to the oil fields of southern Iraq, as well as to public safety around the world. Finally, Venezuela’s economy remains in shambles, leading to worries about its future oil output. The case could be made that these geopolitical issues really haven’t changed and could actually be getting worse.

    (Also news realese today about a Carbon sponge that works. And if it does work it is a way to by-pass Cap & trade costs)

    Add it all up, and the world is quietly being set up for another super spike in the price of oil. It’s a spike that few see coming right now because the focus is on how low oil will go in the short run. However, for those who can read the handwriting on the wall

  • **That’s assuming anyone seriously wants to stop the poaching.**

    Personally, I don’t believe having rich westerners raise their own army to project their ideas of *right* and *wrong* to folks halfway across the globe is a good idea.

  • I’ve posted anew, in the customary style. Catch all the latest information here.

  • “Personally, I don’t believe having rich westerners raise their own army to project their ideas of *right* and *wrong* to folks halfway across the globe is a good idea.”

    Thanks. At this stage, I don’t know what’s a good or bad. For me, the extinction of these glorious animals, along with their environments, is the very worst thing ever to happen, and it sure is happening fast. If you can think of a better way to save these animals, please share.

  • This is in response to Mark, though maybe its time to take this to the next thread.

    First, its true that there is alot of research and concern on the part of governments and public health authorities on mass pandemics. But the fact is that we are exactly within the historical conditions for one (meaning a “natural” pandemic, not government-induced). There has been a huge increase in world population, movement of peasants into areas where humans are not normally lived where they would encounter microbes not yet encountered by human immune systems, and in places like India calories per capita has been dropping. Also much more travel than in the past. These are exactly the historical conditions for pandemics. Its actually a mystery why one hasn’t happened yet.

    For an elite-induced program of killing off enough people to get world human population to a sustainable level, several conditions would have to be met:

    1. Its technically and organizationally feasible to do this.

    2. The elites have to be convinced that over-population is a problem, large enough that they have to take really immoral measures to combat it. That would mean they would have to be convinced that extinction of the human species is the alternative.

    3. There is no time or ability to accomplish the same thing by limiting births, such as was tried in India in the 1970s, and tried in China with some actual success after the 1980s.

    4. However, there is time to do this before human extinction becomes impossible to reverse. If the forces causing it are going to happen anyway, because of releases of carbon into the atmosphere in past decades, there is really no point.

    5. The elites don’t have some other technological fix to try first.

    This is a very narrow set of conditions to meet, and I think only #1 and maybe (but unlikely) #2 has been met. Past organized mass killings have not been population measures, but have targeted specific unwanted subsets of human populations, and have been difficult to pull off. And there is no hard evidence that something like this is the works.

    “ARTLEADS would probably love the LAND USE vision of Agenda 21. I like everything about it. Oh but how to you get North Americans to comply?”

    The history of suburbanization in the US is a complicated subject, but to keep things simple, the government induced millions of Americans to move to car-oriented suburbs after World War 2 though a mixture of subsidies, zoning, and propaganda. For most of US history, people lived mainly in small towns, with some in central cities and there were a few trolley-suburbs. Changing people’s living patterns has been done before and can be done again.

    I can see two complications. First the car suburbs were comparatively cheap to construct, which was a big reason for the shift, they were a quick and cheap way to house returning WW2 veterans and their families during a nationwide housing crisis. Second, US population is over twice what it was in 1945. That means a big investment to construct new towns and transportation networks, in many cases from scratch. But the suburbs were created essentially from scratch, so this is doable.

  • **If you can think of a better way to save these animals, please share.**

    I’m not qualified to be a savior. Try the Diner, ask for RE.

  • “US population is over twice what it was in 1945. That means a big investment to construct new towns and transportation networks, in many cases from scratch.”


    Global population (not sure about US) has at least tripled since that time. I did a Google search on it.

    And since wild animal population has decreased by at least half in the past 40 years, creating new human settlements on open land (animal habitat) seems like a bad idea.

  • “I’m not qualified to be a savior. Try the Diner, ask for RE.”

    You said that asking rich people to buy guns to arm rangers to fight poachers was akin to rich people raising private armies (whatever that means). What is your alternative?

  • **What is your alternative?**

    Don’t worry, be happy.
    And grow old without having to hire mercenaries.

  • **rich people raising private armies (whatever that means).**

    It means rich folks hiring mercenaries (arming rangers) to kill poor folks who do shit rich folk don’t like (poachers).

  • Bob S,

    Thank you for sharing. Although I can see quite a few arguments around what you say, I’ll refrain from going further with this. I’m already two posts over what the host recommends. Best wishes to you.

  • ED – THANK YOU for your very well constructed points above. I completely agree with everything you present above. In past research I saw exactly how all your points correspond to well known facts. Remember when they killed the red-line trolley in L.A. to create the car culture??

    Interesting how communities could be re-condensed (back to hilltop castle towns in Tuscany!)in the aftermath of a population reduction, however, I fully realize I was only talking about a sub-category to possibilities if an induced pandemic did get launched by 2017-18. Otherwise, any type of agenda would be too hard to implement if time goes onward toward unmitigated abrupt climate change.

    I very much doubt the few with enough power, reasons & foresight will induce DE-population far enough in advance of other forms of collapse, which sadly, are even more painful to those caught in great waves of displacement, starvation, riots and all sorts of regular types of warfare.

    MARK URBAN’s paper Predicting extinction in a changing world reminds me of Guy’s work synthesizing many reports into his “Monster” essay.

    URBAN “There is great interest in understanding how species might respond to our changing climate, but predictions have varied greatly. Urban looked at over 130 studies to identify the level of risk that climate change poses to species and the specific traits and characteristics that contribute to risk (see the Perspective by Hille Ris Lambers). If climate changes proceed as expected, one in six species could face extinction. Several regions, including South America, Australia, and New Zealand, face the greatest risk. Understanding these patterns will help us to prepare for, and hopefully prevent, climate-related loss of biodiversity. (Related Resources in Science Magazine)

    Perspective ECOLOGY Extinction risks from climate change
    Janneke Hille Ris Lambers
    Science 1 May 2015: 501-502.

    We critically need to know how climate change will influence species extinction rates in order to inform international policy decisions about the biological costs of failing to curb climate change and to implement specific conservation strategies to protect the most threatened species. Current predictions about extinction risks vary widely, suggesting that anywhere from 0 to 54% of species could become extinct from climate change (1–4). Studies differ in particular assumptions, methods, species, and regions and thus do not encompass the full range of our current understanding. As a result, we currently lack consistent, global estimates of species extinctions attributable to future climate change.

    To provide a more comprehensive and consistent analysis of predicted extinction risks from climate change, I performed a meta-analysis of 131 published predictions (table S1). I focused on multispecies studies so as to exclude potential biases in single-species studies.