How Hot, How Fast?

“I don’t want to earn my living; I want to live.”

~ Oscar Wilde


The species Homo sapiens — clearly our most-loved species, at the expense of nearly all others — has occupied Earth at a temperature somewhere between 2.2 and 3.2 C above baseline (i.e., relative to ~1750). We’ve also survived ice ages, which are characterized by a global-average temperature a few degrees below baseline.

Our species has occupied this planet for about 200,000 years. Our human predecessors were here about 6 million years ago. As with every other species, ours requires habitat to persist. As is the case with non-human species, habitat for Homo sapiens has persisted at a global-average temperature within a narrow range, from about 12 C to about 17 C.

The following calculations include only global dimming and the two self-reinforcing feedback loops for which estimates of heating are available. This analysis assumes moistening of the upper troposphere produces heating at a pace similar to methane. In fact, equilibrium is achieved between moistening of the upper troposphere and global-average temperature within days or weeks. As a result, this analysis is conservative.

The remaining feedback loops remain a mystery in terms of their potential for warming the planet. But I can assure you we will continue to hear the phrase, “faster than expected.”

Civilization pillow talk

I’ll start with global dimming because industrial civilization cannot be maintained. Therefore, it will not be maintained. Even a child is able to understand this point … unless the child happens to exhibit behavior consistent with that of a privileged, Caucasian man.

Global dimming results from industrial activity, as indicated here. Earth will warm by 1 to 3 C degrees above today’s temperature within days or weeks after completion of the ongoing collapse of industrial civilization.

Moistening of the upper troposphere adds 1 to 3 additional degrees. I describe this phenomenon as item 39 on this list.

The monster, though, is atmospheric methane. A potent greenhouse gas, methane leaking emanating from the Arctic Ocean alone is likely to add between 5 and 11 degrees of warming within one or two decades. So said Paul Beckwith in November 2014 as he prepared to attend COP-20 in Lima, Peru. The paleo-climatic evidence supports this view. Please note that human extinction is likely to be triggered even if the exponential rise in atmospheric methane doesn’t matter, as explained here, but methane is a misbehaving bull in a fully stocked China shop. And I’m ignoring methane emanating from terrestrial permafrost.

Currently, Earth is more than 1 C above its baseline temperature. The 1 C mark was the absolute upper Rubicon beyond which we could not cross, as pointed out by the Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases in October 1990. According to David Spratt, 0.5 C was the significant threshold. Unfortunately, I doubt anybody suspected the rate of climate change was outstripping the adaptive response by 10,000 times back in October 1990, as we now know from research focused on vertebrates.

Madly, as if poisoned by our own culture, we negotiate. The 1.5 C “target” produced by COP-21 in Paris was eclipsed a month after the ink dried on the vaunted agreement. Unlike us, nature does not negotiate. Rather, nature bats last.

On, then, to the simple addition, rounding down in every case (i.e., taking a conservative approach):

1. The most-rapid scenario starts with the current 1 C above baseline and adds about 3 C from loss of global dimming plus 1 degree from moistening of the upper troposphere (to avoid counting the feedbacks twice), plus 11 C from Arctic methane, for a total of 16 C above the 1750 baseline by November 2024. That’ll be inconvenient, as it is much warmer than Earth’s global-average temperature at any time during at least the last 2 billion years (i.e., 2,000,000,000 years). The loss of global dimming is guaranteed by the temperature rise resulting from moistening of the upper troposphere or the rise in atmospheric methane. Civilization will not persist beyond 2 C above baseline, which translates to at least twice that temperature rise within the interior of large continents where grains are grown (thus sustaining civilization)

2. At the slower end of the abrupt-climate-change spectrum is 1 C currently, plus 1 C from loss of global dimming, plus 1 degree from moistening of the upper troposphere, plus 5 C from Arctic methane, for a total of 8 C above the 1750 baseline by November 2034. As above, the loss of global dimming is guaranteed by the temperature rise resulting from moistening of the upper troposphere or the rise in atmospheric methane.

The latter scenario — the “slow” one — takes Earth to a planetary temperature well-suited for dinosaurs, were the transition to take hundreds of thousands of years. It is well beyond the temperature at which Earth has harbored anything resembling Homo sapiens, and it’s quite near the highest planetary temperature during the last 2 billion years. The transition from here to 8 C above baseline will occur more rapidly than any previous known rise in global-average temperature.


Even excluding a few dozen self-reinforcing feedback loops, is there any doubt either version of abrupt climate change will remove all habitat for our species in the very near future? If so, please share the attendant evidence.

Oh, and I still don’t know your expiration date. Or mine. But I’m certain each of us will die, even those of us who are middle-aged, Caucasian men in the global north.

Comments 181

  • Yes sir, same as it ever was. Thanks Guy for spelling it out in detail.
    Each day civilization continues down the same path, unable and unwilling to change course from the human-centered, unsustainable way it decided to go many thousands of years ago, carrying with it (over the cliff) any and all remaining tribes who still somehow live according to the old way.

    Tuesday, February 23, 2016
    Arctic Winter Heatwave

    The Arctic is experiencing a heatwave in winter, with temperature anomalies on February 23, 2016, averaging 7.84°C or 14.11°F higher than what was common 1979-2000. [more]

  • The only problem I have here with the line of thinking is the assumption that mankind cannot do anything to solve this problem. The problem can be solved by blocking sunlight, plain and simple. Yes we will have a different planet but it can be done.

  • Good stuff, love Natalie Merchant. She grew up in a circus.

    In Winter 2011 methane caused the Arctic to heat way high in the sky. This led to a rip in the ozone layer where we lost 25% of Arctic ozone in a little over a month. Surprise! Paul Beckwith has a new video out, although the video audio is terrible and the lighting sucks, there is a powerpoint file you can download. It’s on YouTube. Suggest he take a media refresher course.

    I started a bloggy thingy to keep all my ideas in one place. It’s called Loki’s Revenge. I got 2,250 hits in 6 weeks from all over the world with 334 referrals from NBL. I want to say thank you to Guy because his work inspired me to do anything to get the word out.

    I live in an old log cabin deep in the woods of Canada. I cut grass for a living in a trailer park and since grass doesn’t grow in Winter in Canada I got time to write a bunch of stuff. What I cannot understand is why do I feel like I’m the only one trying to tell people the truth? I know I won’t change the world, although it is my not-so-secret fantasy, but even with all those people studying climate and energy in universities are presumably smarter than me, why do I feel like the only one who can think this shit through? I guess it’s because I’m not busy trying to figure out how to pay for school. All the best on your California gig Guy. Cheers.

  • Jim Bronke: oh, right – how do you propose to keep doing something like “blocking sunlight” for an extended period of time (decades at least) without relying on fossil fuels, which only adds to the problem?

    meanwhile, in the real world we inhabit:

    Thursday, 25 February 2016
    Abrupt climate change

    [from a Facebook post via Robin Westenra]

    New findings coming out of Canada

    Hot on the heels of last month seeing the lowest January sea ice extent ever recorded in satellite history, Canadian scientists have discovered that the Greenland ice sheet is now pumping vast amounts of water into the oceans at the rate of around 8,000 tonnes every second. 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.

    Most of the ice loss, representing a “very rapid change,” is meltwater that can no longer sink back into glaciers and re-freeze. Instead, it stays on the surface of the glaciers, forming large rivers that eventually run off into the sea. This is happening because a thick layer of ice that formed after the extreme 2012 melt season has created an impermeable barrier to new meltwater. This new ice plug means meltwater has nowhere else to go, apart from downhill towards the Arctic Ocean.

    As the scientists said, “All the projections we made assumed the water would keep percolating vertically. Now we can say that’s probably not going to happen over large areas of the ice sheet.” This is important because it means that previous climate change models and projections may have underestimated just how much Greenland ice sheet is contributing to sea-level rise today and in the future. Somewhat ominously, one of the scientists added that “every time we have a new result lately it turns out it’s melting faster than we thought.” [more]

    [there’s that term again . . .]

  • Why is it that humans are exempt from the extinction cycle? We’ve had our run, following our natural cycle exempt from predators we have overpopulated and exhausted our resources. It is time to go, get out of the way for the next apex predator

  • Nicely done Guy. Pretty succinct even. Like the hot smack at the end of a cold fist. Good Morning! Enjoy this fine day.

  • That’s really the question isn’t it? Not that this is going to happen but how fast it’s going to happen. I’m 50 and bet I’ll be around to see it.

  • Thank you everyone, it’s like i’m in doggy heaven saying whatever I wanna say, or like that cartoon French Chef Mouse when he got to “improvise”.

    Finally, a place where I can never get tired repeating myself! My wife is dancing with glee.

    Today’s Ablutions:

    The Extinction Singularity

  • Bonus Detraction aka if my wife knew I was writing this she would have my balls

    by Rob,

    when I was a kid there were just 2 sexes with everyone less or more one or the other.

    now I hear there are 5 sexes, I can’t wait for there to be 6,

    because we will finally have more sex than sense.

    5 senses, 6 sexes

  • LWA,

    Regarding your February 23rd, 2016 at 1:01 pm comment, please help me with this:

    (1) Regarding you in particular, why would I, or any other emotionally healthy person for that matter, wish to continue communicating with someone who lowers him- or herself to the adolescent argumentation level of making socially harmful, disgusting, ad hominem attacks on others as you so often do?

    (2) More generally, why would I, or any other emotionally healthy person for that matter, wish to continue commenting at a site that allows the people who comment there very frequently to make disgusting, adolescent, socially harmful ad hominem attacks on others, including not only fellow commenters, but also past and present people highly respected in their fields, such as James Randi, Michael Shermer, Richard Dawkins, Albert Einstein, and many others?

  • @ Robert Callaghan

    “why do I feel like the only one who can think this shit through?”

    Perhaps because of your tendency towards self-aggrandizement and its’ concurrent internal attitude of exceptionalism.

    That you would ask this question of yourself within this forum while at the same time making exclamations with regard to your simplicity is answer enough.

    This has been becoming more and more obvious since the inception of your blog – and non-linearly. (get it?)

    I would be interested in Byd Nye’s thoughts re this too.


  • go easy fred…robert is one of my heroes…nice work on lokis revenge…did i ever mention, i had a dog named loki …a beautiful siberian/wolf mix. he died for my sins. he also was telepathic. where is jef today? chasing dollars i guess.

  • Thanks Dr. M.

    Thanks for the song .

    We know WHAT TIME IT IS when our new young songbirds are croonin’ the likes of “Its A Coming ” …

  • ’tis a pity she was a whore.

  • At your 55 and my 60, Guy I’m afraid we’ve statistically left “Middle age” in the rear view mirror..

    Next time you see someone who is about age 38, ask him/her how “middle age” feels. Latest 2015 stats show average life expectancy (US)is a bit over 76.

    The Crash Test Dummies sum it up well..

    …And now back to the subject at hand. Arctic sea ice seems to be getting a great start towards a “Blue Ocean Event” this year ;-)

  • There’s a terminator loose! Get to da choppa!

  • Robert said – What I cannot understand is why do I feel like I’m the only one trying to tell people the truth?
    Because the ones that can understand our true situation, have given up.
    Whats that saying ?? Something about repeating the same action and expecting a different result?
    Telling the general dumb public GDP that they will be tripping over cadavers in the street will only sink in when they are ‘tripping over cadavers in the street’
    NBL etc is just entertainment now.
    Watching fools protest things like TPPA, just confirms the GDP are fucking idiots, and surprisingly some of the contributes to NBL etc go along with this idiocy.
    ho hum

  • What does warmer, as in heatwave mean for food… example:

    Have a look at fish nutrient cycle and the spawning temperatures that fish will migrate toward when fluctuations occur, well that’s too bad for the fish, they can only go deeper if that’s where the hatched-lings actually would find some food to grow into a fish, Ha, it’s just chemistry that co2, everything grows Better.

    BTW: Coral emergency:

    Alert level 1= Bleaching
    Alert level 2= Mortality

    What that does to the fish stock we’ll see in the next couple of years as fish stocks “mysteriously” decline as after 1998. Bigger trawlers and bigger nets will get our set quota’s.

  • Sorry, just not feeling the global dimming thing. China would have to stop burning coal and there is no scenario where that happens. The methane thing may be correct, but we can’t seem to get anybody besides Beckwith to support it. However, it doesn’t matter that much because co2 marches onward. So, I think about a 4c increase by 2040. Industrial civilization can probably limp along at a reduced rate for quite some time – but, we just don’t know for sure. I’m inclined to think that we will see drastic military action before we see any type of true collapse.

  • 23rd Feb: 14.175 millionkm2, an increase of 13,000km2, which is less ice formation than ‘normal’.

    I would not like to bet either way on the September extent because unexpected things do happen, but each day of melting or insufficient freezing increases the likelihood of an ice-free Arctic this year. Only a couple of weeks until the ‘normal’ ice melt season commences.

    With respect to global averages and potential increases in global averages, it would be wise to consider the fact that temperature rises are not evenly distributed, and that whilst the average temperature in the Arctic may well rise by 10 or 15oC over the next decade or two, the average temperature at the equator and other locations may rise by only 2 or 3oC.

    Much will be revealed by the end of this year.

  • .

    There’s a terminator loose! Get to da choppa!

    That was just Bot heading back to NBL …

    … ad-hominem … ad-hominem … ad-hominem … ad-hominem …

  • Over 93% of global warming goes into the oceans eh?

    Marine habitat is in serious jeopardy, as are the ice sheets and ice shelves.

    Thermal expansion is a minor factor of SLC (Proof of Concept – 8).

  • But I can assure you we will continue to hear the phrase, “faster than expected.”

    This, along with “Oh Shit!” will be the dominant refrains going forward…

    …unless you listen to Bill Gates, who insists that an “energy miracle” will save the day:

  • As per Jim Bronke’s proposal that all we need to do is block sunlight… there is a way to do that! It’s called an exchange of nuclear weapons that will end up blocking out much of the suns incoming radiation. So, yes Jim. Nuclear Winter is the answer! I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if the TPTB are planning a small nuclear exchange to “buy some time” once panic sets in with rising temperatures. Of course that still means certain death for life on Earth. Either way you look at it, I don’t see anyway out of our predicament. We’re finished. It’s just a matter of how soon. :P

  • Orphan Wisdom:
    A Good Goodbye

    Stephen Jenkinson Interview With Gail Rubin

  • I don’t see the point of saying that we all die. Everybody knows that, and a little foot dragging apart, are pretty OK with it. What nobody is prepared to accept is the extinction of complex life within their lifetime and that of their children. That is the ENTIRE problem, the way I see it.

  • I hear a rumor of a highly contagious lethal virus (coming from a monkey, no doubt), that will cull the human herd of all but the few middle aged white guys in the Northern hemisphere who just happen to have the antidote.

  • Ooops, I forgot about all those pesky Nuclear power plants that will be melting down. I think we are done.

  • Just to keep the story on track downunder…

    ‘Tassie fires linked to human-induced climate change, study finds’

    A quote:

    “Bushfires in Tasmania are happening more frequently now than in the past 1,000 years, and human impacts on climate are likely to blame, researchers say.
    Scientists said the increase in bushfires on the island was due to the shift of westerly winds towards Antarctica, a trend that has previously been linked to depletion of the ozone layer.
    Key points:

    Bushfires in Tasmania are more frequent now than in the past 1,000 years
    This is linked to southward migration of westerly winds
    This southward movement has been linked ozone depletion.”

    The Picture accompanying the text is …well…worth a lot of words, as the saying goes…'s-wha/7190648

    Easy Does It

    Oh, and some light viewing…

    ‘Oil: The Epic of Black Gold’

    (in case someone here missed some details)


  • Unsurprisingly, the stampede to perceived safety continues to accelerate:

    ‘Population growth from migration hit a new all time high of 65,911 new permanent or long-term residents in the year to January, according to Statistics NZ.

    January was the eighteenth straight month that population growth from migration has set a new record.’

  • SHEP – that’s for the hot market tip: “…these big banks are like nuclear reactors. If a nuclear reactor melts down, it’s truly devastating for society.” Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    400 Fukishima’s = Ion ionized radioactive atmospheric decay. 6th Extinction is worse than the Great Dying. This time Earth turns into Mars and nothing gets to evolve out of the dead sand. Okay Matt Damon, of course “we’ll science the shit out of this.” But in the end our Applied Molecular Evolution lab Tardigrades better learn to love all the radiation that will remain.

  • I recently learned that the natural gas industry, particularly the
    fracced gas industry vents CH4 in volumes approximating 20% of production.

    Has this been incorporated into the models?

    WRT most of the above comments regarding inter-personal matters…



  • @Doctor Guy McPherson

    Thank you for another eye-opening article!

    I don’t want to earn my living; I want to live.

    – Oscar Wilde

    Oh yes, Oscar Wilde was a really cool guy, a great writer and he got style.

    @Feed Jake

    Yes, yes, big thanks for the video about Mrs. Bolte Taylor! Jill Bolte Taylor talks about the same, that Alan Watts talks about:

    Oneness and Duplicity.

    So, the materialists can say that Gautama Buddha (and all the other Arhats) just had a stroke, when he found Enlightenment under the Bodhi-Tree, hahaha.

    When will the ignorant, rich countries of the western world learn, that all species are our relatives?! Here is a high quality and extremely sad (I cried, when I saw that lonely Hawai male bird singing for a female, but no answer, because all females are gone) documentary about ignorance and crimes against the planet:


  • Seas Are Rising at Fastest Rate in Last 28 Centuries

    *(Fair Use. For educational/research purposes only^).

    “Scientists reported Monday that flooding in coastal communities was largely a result of greenhouse gas emissions, and likely to grow worse.”

    Who’d a thunk it? Reckon the solution is to construct higher sea walls.


  • Hint:

    The embedded video I posted doesn’t seem to work in the browser window of NBL- if so, just click on “vimeo” (written on the video at the lower right corner) and you will be redirected to the original video at vimeo!

  • cheers all the best

  • Apple is working to make iPhones even tougher to hack into = WaPo

    Just ask the trained monkeys at FB = Major corporations are defenders of our freedoms.

    What’s next an Apple iphone *Snowden edition* ? Cha-ching!

    Who thinks these gags up?

    Refresh your memory.

  • (sorry mo flow, but the hint about the video was only half of a post, here’s comes the other half, meow…)

    Thanks again for the Oscar Wilde quote, Doctor Guy McPherson, I love that guy…

    Hear no evil,
    speak no evil-
    and you’ll
    never be
    invited to a

    – Oscar Wilde

    Art is the most intense mode of individualism that the world has known.

    – Oscar Wilde

    We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.

    – Oscar Wilde

    Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong.

    – Oscar Wilde

    Cheers to everyone and all the best

  • “I don’t want to earn my living; I want to live.”

    What is life? We regard consciousness as something that has causal powers that explain behavior. Brain scientists say that consciousness consists of material brain states, often called neural firings. But if consciousness consists of material brain states, our causal powers consist of physical interactions and nothing else. Then what consciousness can do except nothing? We might be as well zombies. Are we zombies? If life is nothing but material activity, aren’t we all dead already?

  • Batman: figure it out for yourself.

    Bolivia – Warnings as River Levels Rise in the South, Flash Floods in La Paz

    Sydney heatwave: mercury hits 41.7C as city sets record for days above 26C

    [Flooding and drought, heat waves and intense cold spells, storms and disease, on and on it goes.]

  • Today I am informed by an acquaintance somewhere north of Mexico that I am “selling” the apocalypse. As if I could “sell” the carbon and methane levels. As if I could “sell” the historical climate record. As if I could “sell” physics and chemistry. As if I could “sell” human psychology. I guess it really is P.T. Barnum all the way down.

  • Cowgirl Apocalypse Haiku #119

    Snowy egret glows
    white, peering over new grass-
    impossibly green.

  • hey Guy…do you and Mo hang out sometimes, get high and laugh about how goofy the commenters are around here? do you and Beckwith talk about what knuckle draggers humans are? do you love to hate or hate to love sen. inhofe ?

  • damn snake oil salesmen.

  • In response to your questions, digixplor: no, no, and no

  • 24th Feb: 114.199 millionkm2, an increase of 26,000km2 on the revised figure.

    We live a little longer.

  • So it’s come to this, then. Should be an interesting outcome.

    Environmental groups are suing to force the Obama administration to impose more restrictions on oil and gas drilling, grazing and other activities blamed for the decline of greater sage grouse across the American West

    [yeah, get in line, pal]

  • Batman:

    Intriguing question.


    SO beautiful!


    Love how you look at the stats for the whole planet, not just the privileged parts.

  • Batman ~

    “As pure consciousness, incarnated as human beings on this planet, we have the invitation to be completely responsible for where we find ourselves.”

    ~ Gangaji, the Diamond in your Pocket

  • ‘If life is nothing but material activity, aren’t we all dead already?’

    interesting question, indeed. i think another way of putting it is that perhaps life is utterly meaningless and valueless, an absurd aberration, a cosmic joke/tragedy/accident… whatever the fuck it is, it boggles my brain, shines my shit, and torments my (imaginary?) soul.

  • No, actually it’s the shiny shit that’s illusory. Periodically the soul gets bored and smokes something that makes it think the shiny shit’s real and itself illusory, but not really. Just for the entertainment value. Shits & grins is what life’s really about.

  • @the virgin terry

  • The songs or prose we write that won’t disappear. A case in point might be a noted singer Steve Earle. He had a concert tour for Townes Limited edition and I heard him in Winnipeg, acoustic, celebrating his friend Townes Van Zandt. Entranced, over an hour later he got to the first song he wrote sober – which was just after hearing Townes died. The song was about Townes. Yahoos with free tickets kept calling out louder and louder as the concert progressed, COPPER HEAD ROAD. Having 5 cds of his more recent work. I got angrier and angrier at the drunken fools. It was at this point that one called out even louder, COPPERHEADROAD MOTHERF… Steve just started swearing, did an acoustic version of copperheadroad, swore at the promoters and left.

    The problem that Steve Earle and I have, is that follow the party line of something that we claim saved our lives. Regrets about the past are pointless wastes of time anf of grey matter. For folk like us it took what it took to get us to stop for a day at a time our suicidal insanity. And so he cannot regret writing that song. We have never met, but we are brothers in that we abstain from at least a portion of our insanity a day at a time for over 20 years.

    Rich mans war, John Walker’s Blues, Jerusalem, The Low Highway, The Revolution Starts Now, Way Down in the Hole, etc., etc., etc., such a shame those songs do not get media attention. But it is not Mr. Earles shame. CBC radio is even guilty of only playing copperhead road. sigh.

    So, AfriZen has second thoughts about his song being played each episode on NBL. I am sure that Guy will do the right thing and find another theme song 10 years from now … oh wait, earth to moi, it will be moot. It does have a really nice beat. I propose a compromise. Guy can agree to stop using it 5 years from now and Afrizen can do what every performing artist who may been buttonholed into a (dare I say it) typecast role should do. No one is stopping him from reaching down into his creative consciousness and produce an evolutionary, transcending performance, whether it is a song, film, prose, poetry.

    It is a funny thing about true gifts, as in a gift that is given. A true gift from the heart, is unable to be ungiven.

  • “The songs or prose we write that won’t disappear. ”

    mrogness, what are you talking about? Enormous volumes, inconceivable amounts, of prose, poetry, and song has appeared and then disappeared from the human realm without our having any notion of its existence.

    It’s only been a thousand years or so that we have been able to mechanically reproduce musical sound, compared to the two-hundred-thousand-years-or-so of “modern” human existence. With any robust commercial reproductive fidelity, we are talking about not much more than 100 years.

    What remains of the writing of the Greeks.. what comprised the library of Alexandria… is largely and forever lost to us. The music of that time is even more ephemeral.

    Without the Internet, hardly anyone will know who Steve Earle is in fifty years, if we are alive that long.

    It’s too bad that an artist may be brutally exposed to his patrons, but that’s always how it is, whether from down low or on high.

    I like your construction, “abstaining from at least a portion of our insanity a day at a time..”

    Gifts cannot be ungiven, but fetishizing old gifts commands current resources and blocks reception of new gifts.

    What will become of the artistic “gift” of an enbalmed shark which will need to be replaced every few years? The artist calls it “The Physical Impossibility of Death in the Mind of Someone Living”.. basically: in exchange for many millions of dollars, FUCK YOU I’M LEAVING YOU THIS DEATHLY CRAP OBJECT THAT YOU MUST CARE FOR FOR ETERNITY. ha ha ha ha ha!

    I’m opposed to cemeteries for this very reason.

  • Just a friendly reminder:

    What Exxon knew

    Newly released documents show that scientists at Exxon Oil Corporation conducted research on climate change and the greenhouse effect in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Their conclusions were in accord with mainstream scientific groups in academia, NASA, NOAA, and the Department of Energy, showing that global warming posed a serious problem, with potential “catastrophic effects.

    Read the documents here:

    Read the Inside Climate series here:

    Read the Los Angeles Times reporting here:


    Not just ExxonMobil (former Humble Oil, Enco, Esso) knew the shit, in fact, there was a whole international Consortium of the Oil-Industry who KNEW the shit in the 70s already, but they financed massive denier-campagnes all around the world nevertheless and just went on with their dirty business for decades, haaaahahaha 8-) … umph, don’t they have children, grandchildren, descendants?!… I mean, I don’t have any descendandts, lucky me 8-)

  • @Lidia

    Do you have peace and love in mind? Do you love anything or anyone in your life? Do you apreciate the beauty and inspiration many human beings brought to humanity as a wonderful gift? Do you know, that the majority of the human beings on this planet, just like the animals and plants, are VICTIMS of a greedy, heartless minority? Do you do anything to make this world a better place? Do you do anything to reduce the immense suffering on this planet? Do you passionately pursue a life of excellence? Isn’t it better to shine some light in this world than to beef about the darkness? Or is just this your message to the Universe?:


    Then NBL might be the wrong place for you indeed. But anyway:

    May you find love and peace within your own heart!

    ” Without music, life would be a mistake.”

    ― Friedrich Nietzsche

    ” And those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music.”

    ― Friedrich Nietzsche

    ” One good thing about music, when it hits you, you feel no pain.”

    ― Bob Marley

    ” And, in the end
    The love you take
    is equal to the love you make.”

    ― Paul McCartney

    ” One ought, every day at least, to hear a little song, read a good poem, see a fine picture, and, if it were possible, to speak a few reasonable words.”

    ― Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

    I am a musician and I know that MUSIC is eternal indeed. The whole Universe is Music. Oh, and I surely never had “many millions of dollars”, I give a shit about “many millions of dollars”, because just Music made me extremely rich, within :-) In fact:

    NOTHING throughout the whole Universe gets ever lost- where should it go to? There is no place outside the Universe :-)

  • In the opinion of non-existent spiritual teacher Jed McKenna, spiritual growth is a process of autolysis (self-digestion) rather than a graceful ascension. In that way it’s much like coming to terms with the reality of Near Term Human Extinction and the part we have each played in bringing it about.

    Here’s the thing. Self-digestion, whether spiritual or physical, can be unbelievably, intolerably painful. There’s nothing “exquisite” about it, it’s not some kind of “sanctuary”. Especially if we have, intentionally or not, dragged someone we love into the cauldron of boiling soul-acid alongside us, whether or not they are ready or willing.

    Sometimes, as the flesh dissolves off my bones one nerve fiber at a time, it’s hard to remember why I’m doing this: that flaying myself alive is somehow supposed to be good for me; that I will “thank myself in the end.” Why on God’s Gray Earth would anyone choose to do this?

    In the face of such agony, it doesn’t take much of a stretch to understand why people flee en masse into spiritual bypassing or its secular civilized NTHE counterpart, techno-utopianism. The self-deception and avoidance is far less painful than meticulously searing one’s own flesh with the blowtorch of awareness.

    So it goes.

  • I don’t know who your audience is, but here’s the way this article reads to the average American:

    Earth at a temperature somewhere between 2.2 and 3.2 C above baseline (i.e., relative to ~1750). for about 200,000 years. e about 6 million years ago.a global-average temperature within a narrow range, from about 12 C to about 17 C. self-reinforcing feedback loops upper troposphere” global dimming a privileged, Caucasian man living in the global north.Earth will warm by 1 to 3 C degrees ongoing collapse of industrial civilization. Moistening of the upper troposphere adds 1 to 3 additional degrees.The monster methane. add between 5 and 11 degrees of warming Paul Beckwith COP-20 in Lima, Peru. The paleo-climatic human extinction exponential ln atmospheric methane in a fully stocked China shop. 1 C above its baseline temperature. The 1 C mark was the absolute upper Rubicon United Nations Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases in October 1990. David Spratt, 0.5 C outstripping by 10,000 times back in October 1990,vertebrates.
    Madly, as if poisoned 1.5 C COP-21 in Paris 1 C above baseline and adds about 3 C from loss of global dimming plus 1 degree from moistening of the upper troposphere (to avoid counting the feedbacks twice), plus 11 C from Arctic methane, for a total of 16 C above the 1750 baseline by November 2024. the last 2 billion years (i.e., 2,000,000,000 years). global dimming from moistening of the upper troposphere or the rise in atmospheric methane.2 C above baseline is 1 C currently, plus 1 C from loss of global dimming, plus 1 degree from moistening of the upper troposphere, plus 5 C from Arctic methane, for a total of 8 C above the 1750 baseline by November 2034. well-suited for dinosaurs, during the last 2 billion years 8 C.

  • If knowledge is finite – then the knowledge available to each individual could decrease as the pop increases.

    ie – the more we are the stupider we become.

    When pop was 250 million wise men walked among us.

    Pop at 7.5 billion = well, look around.

  • @Bob S.

    That is similar to my “Collective IQ Hypothesis”: The collective IQ of any group of people is a constant.”

    The hypothesis addresses such behavioral differences as people in crowded vs. sparse shopping malls; rush hour vs. non rush hour traffic; small salon discussion groups vs. large lecture halls; ancient wisdom cultures vs. modern consumption cultures…

  • Remember Peak Oil?

    It passed a decade ago; a fanfare,
    Then a Hurley Gurley ground out
    While monkeys passed the hat.
    Civilization leaks to a halt:
    Oil gushes up from oceans;
    Unsealed methane hisses
    At children breathing blankets,
    In corrugated concrete where
    Radiation pools in ocean currents
    And islands where fish fields
    Strain the boats that ship
    Radiant fillets to Manhattan,
    Even as ocean inches up
    Skyscrapers and over shoe tops.
    Remember peak oil,
    The point of no return?
    Step outside as wind
    Galls with fifty mph gusts
    That buffet tumbleweeds passing:
    Know cyclones flex their muscles.

  • @Nemesis – thanks for the John Dowland. I find myself listening to a lot of medieval and Renaissance lute music of late, and especially the music that came out of Moorish Spain and the traditions of flamenco and gypsy and Arab.
    It seems to me that for a brief moment Europe reached a peak of civilization and culture there in Granada, Toledo, Valencia, Seville, where Jew and Muslim and Christian lived in relative peace and plenty.

    “…but all in all it would appear that duende is too fragile to survive the brutality of technology and the ever increasing acceleration of the music industry. Perhaps there is just no money in sadness, no dollars in duende. Sadness or duende needs space to breathe. Melancholy hates haste and floats in silence. It must be handled with care.” Nick Cave


    We grunt and learn
    and hunt and burn.

    We mark deep grottoes with ochre and charcoal
    invoking victims for our hungered hunt.

    We leave our skulls and footprints across the face of the earth;
    we leave our parents and lovers and wonder what they’re worth.

    We make children, weave baskets, flake tools,
    we fish and gather and drink like drunken fools.

    And as the sun sinks slowly in the west
    we realize that there are fewer birds, warmer seas,
    collapsing ice, brown air, infested trees,
    vanishing tigers, hornless rhinos guarded by poverty’s guns.

    And all our dreams of glory, all our strivings from the dust
    are sinking into swamps of ignorance, greed and vacant lust.

    All the heroes dead on all the beaches, all the teachers making speeches,
    all the soldiers who fought for peace, all the wars to make war cease
    have ended on this empty beach of glowing sand
    where whales gasp their last and I don’t lift a hand.

    So many fought for justice, so many fought for what’s right;
    they are gone now,
    and I smell the oncoming night.

    Ash Feb 25, 2016

  • yes elroy…the average american has a lot of catching up to do.

  • As a collorary to the Collective IQ Hypothesis, consider this observation by Thomas Hobbes regarding common sense:

    “But this proveth rather that men are in that point equal, than unequal. For there is not ordinarily a greater sign of the equal distribution of anything than that every man is contented with his share.”

  • @ WoodWose

    Love that Spanish/Gypsy stuff. You don’t hear much of it. A favorite CD is Aaron Rosand playing Sarasate.

  • Nemesis: not to nit-pick, but

    Black holes are a passage to another universe, says Stephen Hawking

    “If you feel you are in a black hole, don’t give up,” he told the audience at the end of his speech. “There’s a way out.”

  • Want Spanish Gypsy stuff?
    Go to YouTube, search = grateful dead spanish jam
    Take your pick from a dozen or more different versions.
    Take the fact that Django and Jerry were both missing part of the same finger as mere coincidence or something more complicated as it suits you.

    You might also like Quicksilver Messenger Service’s “Calvary”.

  • @Nemesis – instead of John Dowland, why not listen to Maukka. He plays Partner chainshaw in this excellent 1979 video. Please notice the go-go girls and excellent production values.

  • the interesting thing for me is not necessarily “how hot, how fast” (it’s going to be either fast or very fast, and overall i don’t think it will make much difference in the result) but that the most stable default state for the last 2 billions years is clearly 22 deg C. a dynamical system with two attractors, and the 22 C attractor is the most stable.

    the cool periods are the exceptional periods. something tweaks the default, and the state drops down to the lower attractor at 12 deg C. (or once at 17 C, but this just may have not been a strong enough tweak to get fully to 12 C).

    that lower state is clearly less stable (if this graph is an accurate representation of the timescales).

    the recent tweak was having the Antarctica landmass at the south pole with glaciation there starting around 30 mil years ago, and then the closing of the Panama isthmus around 3 mil years ago.

    orbital cycles, yada yada yada, and we get another temporary drop to lower stable state at 12 C. which probably would have disappeared once the continents had been rearranged out of this particular configuration, and Earth would be right back to 22 C again.

    what humans have done is simply accelerate what was probably inevitable. maybe it would have taken another 30 mil years for things to move a bit more with the continents perhaps, and then floooop, right back to 22 C.

    so humans took that 30 mil years and chucked it, and we will be back to 22 C in something like 30 to 300 years, tops. maybe closer to 3000 years if there is some unknown very large negative feedback that kicks in, but nothing longer than that even remotely. the positive feedbacks will overwhelm anything at this point.

    very uneducated guess: the 22 C state contained a certain quantity of atmospheric carbon (and carbon overall in the cycle) that was taken out during the last long 30 mil year cooling. that carbon is probably now all in frozen methane, permafrost, peat deposits, etc.

    it is all going back from here on out. the methane spike could push things briefly over 22 C like at the P-T boundary, but it would probably settle down pretty quickly to that default 22 C.

  • thinking about this just a bit more, given that it’s going to be all the carbon sequestered over the last 30 mil years, plus the geologically stored carbon that is being liberated from FFs, the idea of a truly runaway greenhouse suddenly seems lots more plausible.

    that all argues for the fastest possible rate of change, it seems, in the “how fast” question.

    and “how hot” could be Venusian at 900 degrees.


  • I can`t seem to Fnd a Guy presentation video starting with that “life is short play more ” Xbox video game commercial anyone has a link to one of that i would greatly appreciate it Thanx

  • 25th Feb: 14.237 millionkm2. Up 38,000km2.

    And a small annual-difference value for CO2.

    Interesting to watch but we won’t really know until August because 2012 had more ice than normal in April yet ended up a record low in September.

    NZ society becomes more insane and more unsustainable by the day. And this is supposed to be the place to run to.

  • Hi Nemisis,

    I don’t know anything about music, so I missed the point of the interchange with Lidia. Beyond that, though, she strikes me as fun loving with a mischievous (sometimes acerbic, sometimes curmudgeonly) streak. Although I have extremely differences with her often, I find her to be fair and principled. Just my 2 cents.

    One good thing about music, when it hits you, you feel OK.
    One good thing about music, when it hits you, you feel alright.
    Hit me with music…. :-)

  • Finally time to go back and read all comments carefully. CHE!

    MO THANKS – as Mark Austin was getting at here recently, but which I am now sure more than ever must be on their minds: if there is any way to wipe out the slaves and their activities, which are now an existential threat to our ultimate privilege, while still maintaining our safety and security, and our lineages, find a way!

    everything else has been expendable, all along. no reason all the slaves themselves aren’t just as expendable. we just have to find the way….Blue Ray, Blue tooth, BLUE BEAM mixed with Holosonic sound (direct audio messaging into human minds)is the kindest program we developing to re-format human minds, rather than simply kill billions with the C.A.P. Induced pandemic ‘population reduction’ plan.

    Per the previous youtube sample clips I provided – (Dubai Blue Beam) and the NYC blue blast HSS direct mind audio, using all existing 5-G cell networks & the NASA satellite signal (built by Raytheon) we simply re-program human consumption & habits when it is time for a shift in IC profitability.

    Saving the atmosphere and removing the most dangerous old nuclear plants is considered profitable rather than losing the entire eco system.

    People will be much easier to direct once HSS is in full “Neuronal Signal Transduction” saturation effect. Only problem is can Carbon Based lifeforms live in a constant Microwave field? DARPA brain project, Max Planck & blood brain barrier particles that form a mesh around the Cerebral Cortex are fully explained in Scientific & Medical journals.

    Since people will not willingly cooperate (not enough time anyway) we can still achieve mass re-direct rather than go direct to mass depop. It only takes a few thousand using ultra high frequency to alter the Billions. Nothing to loose and it is a open minded way to instantly alter habits & conceptions. Blue Beam will be a blast if we can get it done before it get’s too hot.

    Every major industry is supporting Bluetooth BLUE BEAM, Pharmaceutical, Communication, Monsanto, even the Mexican-Columbian drug cartels which are connected to CIA deals via Senators like Mc Cain are cooperating in HSS component assembly. When it is complete, Blue Beam will speak directly into your minds. Be Kind. Be aware. There is a whole new message for humanity ready for broadcast.

  • Can anyone name even one anti establishment group or organization that hasn’t been infiltrated by some government spook like agent Austin pretending to be sympathetic? So he had a cup of coffee with Lidia and was nice. Big fucking deal – that’s what they do. Try and gain your confidence = con men. Looking for you to do or say something incriminating or see who is vulnerable and can be turned. Mark Austin is a phony. There is a reason we have instincts – try using them people.

  • Thank You Guy
    some friend posted the original commercial On FB I figured he was curious how the story goes on …. or not! thank you

  • Music and musicians are often referenced throughout this blog. Some i know, but most I don’t. I am curious. I like the high quality of the comments on this site. There is nothing
    I feel qualified to comment on the climate issues. From the beginning, i’ve agreed with everything that Guy had to say. As we go down, I would just like to add – regarding music, it seems music comments have never referenced Sviatoslav Richter. I think – the greatest pianist – ever. I have perhaps 400 cds of his concerts. There is no musician for whom I have higher respect. I saw him play only once in London shortly before his death.
    If you are not familiar with his recordings, your loss.


  • Hundreds of Audio Spotlight samples installed last month. Above is a sample clip one working in New Zealand.

    Also look at LiFi photon energy now in commercial use to deliver cell ph recharge direct from light bulbs. Parabolic Hyperspike LRAD.

    Brooks AFB is using the DARPA sonic projector. Also experience it at the Seattle Space Needle. Thousands more going into full force. Might make grumpy Ape mans more willing to care about the planet with the right message delivery. New way to get past old paradigms and religious arguments about procreation. Change minds about bad habits much faster than Guy trying on lecture at a time. Direct mind ways to THINK really green.

  • Apneaman ~

    “There is a reason we have instincts – try using them people.”

    when your instincts get sharper than those of a dead mushroom, feel free to start your witch hunt.

    until then, in this particular case, you are kinda making me think of a very tightly wound up Irish Setter who has gone off his chain.

  • .
    Whoops, wrong thread.
    Here’s a link to Sviatoslav Richter for us to ponder. It looks to me like this guy could rock the house for sure. Thanks bills.

    bills, just copy the text from your browser toolbar, the text that says “ bla bla” into your comment here on NBL. That will link any video from you tube that you may want to share with us here into your reply.



  • ^Glad a poster mentioned Steven Stills. Often listen to his solo debut. Apparently the only studio album that features contributions from Hendrix & Clapton.

    Superb – seems like he can play any style.

    Also his Mannassas work is brilliant..for any who haven’t heard.

  • Apneaman,

    I wasn’t aware that NBL was a stealth group hatching some subversive plot. Following from that, what we could have to hide, or could warrant infiltration by secret agents, remains a mystery to me.


    It’s useful to know what desperate minds might be concocting in the halls of power. AFAIK, there’s usually a silver lining to even the craziest things. But my take on the subject is to rely on nature, commonsense, conscience, and (what I’d call) wisdom as the best form of resistance. We have to put on blinders, and not get distracted by crazy stuff all around us. If OUR program starts to gain traction, then it will most likely influence the crazies. And there remains the possibility that the two ways of proceeding can create a third way…


    99.999 % of discourse on TV fits within the rubric of monster governments and international institutions. Nobody has gotten the message that such institutions are, by the nature of their size alone, incapable of solutions. The means to function at these scales depend on the profligate use of cheap energy–including slave energy. But that’s just the tip of the (soon to disappear) iceberg.

  • 26.2.2016 – Exxon Mobil has devised a bizarre new argument to wriggle away from its shareholders’ demands: Humanity can’t fix the problem we created, so we shouldn’t even try.

    Today a very interesting question came to my mind and I would be really pleased if you guys at NBL could give me an answer…

    The message is clear and unmistakable:

    Unavoidable Near Term Extinction until 2030. I mean, even ExxonMobil doesn’t see a chance to fix climate change anymore (they should know, what they are talking about^^). Then wouldn’t it be just very intelligent to give a shit about anything and just ENJOY LIFE as long as possible, like all the sheeples out there?! I mean, it is too late to stop NTE anyway. So, yes, to just enjoy life as long as possible and give a shit about anything would be the best choice one can make in such a situation. In 15 years we will all be dead anyway. From here on all the mumble on NBL is completely obsolete, isn’t it?

  • … another thing is:

    The main message at NBL is, that Civilisation (quote: Civ is a “heat engine”) itself is the main cause of NTE, so we are on a death trail since several thousand years anyway. That means, our Death sentence has been spoken for quite a long time, long before anyone of us were born.

    Well, then the sheeples, who don’t think, who don’t ask questions, who just enjoy life, are much more intelligent, than we are here at NBL, aren’t they? The sheeples just say:

    Eat, drink, enjoy life, tomorrow we will all be dead anyway.

    So, why shouldn’t we all just do the same as long as we can?!

  • Guy asks how fast …

    “2 C Coming On Faster Than We Feared”

    “Atmospheric Methane Spikes to Record 3096 Parts Per Billion”


  • Fish mogul is alleged to have cheated quotas

    If ya can’t beat em, then cheat em (conservative, entrepreneur/political mantra don’t tread on me bullshit) If you think the lawlessness in Murka is bad now …. wait until the grocery store shelves are empty.

  • Dredd: in the comments section (that i’ve been permanently banned from)

    robindatta / February 26, 2016

    Those who have been peddling abrupt climate chahge for a couple of years now and their sycophants think that ol’ Wile E. Coyote is already off the cliff, and has been feeling around with his toes for some solid ground, before looking down.

    And there are others determined to rectify the situation.

    Sent from my iPad ??

    [i wonder who he’s talking a about in such an unflattering manner?]

  • Here’s a ponderable thought for Deep Green Resistance devotees:

    If the goal is to dismantle Global Techno-Industrial Civilization, the best monkeywrench we have at our disposal right now is a Donald Trump presidency.

  • @richards, @ogardener, @infantryone, @bills – thanks (and, yes, Stills, very underrated) (haven’t heard Quicksilver in dedaces :-)

    Here are a few (old and new) with one or two “oddities” thrown in:

  • LWA, thanks for the Sviatoslav Richter link. Wow.