The Questions People Ask

Judge a man by his questions rather than his answers
~ Voltaire

 

People ask me amazing questions. They’re generally both ignorant and redundant, as I indicated previously.

Sometimes the questions are neither ignorant nor redundant. They’re mean-spirited, thereby consistent with this entire culture. I don’t know if the questioner is mirroring the culture or the culture is merely a sum of the jerks asking the questions. Perhaps it’s a self-reinforcing feedback loop of meanness as a method to gather prestige by belittling others.

Perhaps the people asking the questions don’t even know they’re rude. Perhaps I’m asking too much from individuals trapped within a culture now far-removed from civility. Consider the exceptionally personal, incredibly inappropriate questions asked by Daniel in this space:

So, how are you currently financially supporting yourself; where’s your money coming from? What flow of money is allowing you to tour the world giving presentations on NTE?

Since you don’t seem to be holding down a day job, I’ll assume you’re still living off the savings/pension from your tenure in academia, yes?

How much did your earlier imperial savings factor into you thinking it wise to “walk away from empire” in the first place, compared to having come to regret that decision, given that nest egg probably isn’t what it once was?

Apparently manners are irrelevant. Consider me a old-fashioned, but to ask these exceptionally personal questions is rude. As expected from somebody who would ask these questions, no thanks was offered when I responded. My too-polite, too-revealing response is here:

Daniel, I can’t imagine a dozen people within IC would answer your extremely personal questions. They are none of your business. But my life is an open book, and I suspect I’m infinitely more honest than the typical person within IC, so I’ll answer, against my better judgment.

All of my speaking tours are financed through donations. Click the link above to pitch in.

I spent my “retirement” funds on this homestead. Between the >$500K spent here and the >$700K income forgone, perhaps you can understand why I view the move as an error. Perhaps not, though. An extra $1.2 million and a healthy stream of income would allow me many more opportunities to get the word out.

Your final question is redundant, so I’ll ignore it. My wife pays for groceries with her paltry income. And we share property with people far more typical of IC than us. Ergo, mistakes have been made.

Daniel is not stupid. And I doubt he’s a troll. Too, I doubt he considers himself impolite. By asking this series of questions, consistent with his previous and subsequent behavior, he illustrates behavior that would’ve shocked my parents. Still would, in fact.

And I don’t think my parents are the issue here. Neither do I believe my response is particularly pungent. Since sending my response to Daniel, funds spent on the homestead have increased, along with forgone income. As expected, Daniel has offered no comment, no thanks, and no donation.

On the topic of trolls, they’re abundant and easy to spot. They don’t ask questions. Rather, they proclaim knowledge, rooted in belief and unshackled by evidence.

For example, the typical troll trots out a three-year-old blog post to challenge the evidence I present. The foolish cowards continue to show up on Alex Smith’s blog, and they include the likes of Tony Weddle (aka sofistek). He’s hardly the only acolyte of science educator denier Scott Johnson wallowing in ignorance and fear, but he’s exemplary in his outspoken denial. These people remind me of a statement from Carl Sagan:

One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over, you almost never get it back.

The attacks are unceasing, as they’ve been for longer than a decade. They invariably focus on me, not my work. Shooting the messenger never goes out of style.

I take this opportunity to clear up a common misconception. I readily admit I erred upon leaving active service at the university. I loved classroom teaching, as well as mentoring. I was very good at both endeavors, which explains why the university desperately tried to censor me and then encouraged my departure. All that aside, I have come to grips with my early exit from academic life. Initially disappointed by the cowardice of others with respect to following my lead, reflection has allowed me to accept aspects of human behavior about which I was formerly ignorant. And I am free in ways I could not have predicted before I moved away from Tucson.

As with many factors in the life of a rationalist, my personal history is part of what defines me. At this point, it simply is. There are many facets to reality.

 

Thanks to Marc Haneburght for creating, recording, and making available a webinar on 8 March 2016. Embedding is disabled, and the presentation portion of the webinar can be viewed here. Q&A may be available later.

Thanks to Roblyn Crawford for initiating a fund-raising campaign in support of speaking tours. It’s here. Please share widely. Roblyn also is seeking volunteers to support a May speaking tour in California. Specifically, Roblyn says we need a place for Guy to eat and sleep in Sacramento on 2 May 2016. And we need places for Guy to eat and sleep and venues in Marin (30 April), Grass Valley (3 May), Santa Rosa (6 May), Santa Cruz (12 May), and Santa Barbara (13 May). We are also seeking venues and hosts in the Los Angeles area 17, 18, and 19 May 2016. If you are able to help, please send a message to booking@crawfordsattractions.com

Coming Events

Friday, 29 April 2016 at 7:00 p.m., “Responding to Abrupt Climate Change,” Astronomical Society of Las Cruces, Doña Ana Community College, 3400 South Espina Street, Room 141

Las Cruces presentation April 29 2016

Early May 2016: Sacramento, San Francisco, Berkeley, Santa Rosa, Middletown, Chico, Grass Valley, Redding, and Santa Cruz, California. Follow on Facebook.

1 May 2016, 12:00 noon, Utopia Now! conference, Humanist Hall, 390 27th Street, Oakland, California

6 May 2016, 12:00 noon, Middletown Art Center, 21456 Highway 175, at the junction of Highway 29, Middletown, California, “The Valley Fire Connection to Abrupt Climate Change”

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13-24 May 2016: Ojai, Los Angeles, and Fountain Valley, California. Follow on Facebook.

13 May 2016, 7:00 p.m., Bookends Books, 110 South Pueblo Avenue, Ojai, California

14 May 2016, 1:00 p.m., Bookends Books, 110 South Pueblo Avenue, Ojai, California

15 May 2016, 4:00 p.m., The Grange, 381 Cruzero Street, Ojai, California

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9-13 September 2016: The Real Truth About Health Conference, Caribe Royale Hotel, Orlando, Florida, additional details forthcoming

14-27 September 2016: New Jersey New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island. Follow on Facebook.

October 2016: USA Pacific Northwest

November 2016: Australia and New Zealand
______

Catch Nature Bats Last on the radio with Mike Sliwa and Guy McPherson. To listen live, tune in every Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. Eastern time, or catch up in the archives here. If you prefer the iTunes version, including the option to subscribe, you can click here. We’re on Stitcher, too.

As always, the schedule of topics for forthcoming episodes of the radio show is posted beneath the tab at the top of the page titled, “Radio Archive and Recent Video.” Please help us out, especially with episodes that focus on criticism of climate scientists and activists by sending your contributions to Mike at mikeyjonsliwa@gmail.com. The next of these shows is scheduled for 5 April 2016 and will focus on the non-profit industrial complex. We will be joined by independent journalist Cory Morningstar.

McPherson’s latest book is available in audio, and can be purchased here. Ms. Ladybug and Mr. Honeybee: A Love Story at the End of Time is intended for ages 11 and up.

Comments 141

  • Great points and I’ve felt the same way about many of the posts called out above and the recent bickering present on the blog. When the attacks become personal, it is always less about the “topic” at hand and more about the aggressors ego. As a longtime forum admin elsewhere, the depths to which people will go in assaulting others in this anonymous online “world” are staggering. Things one would never dream of saying to a real live persons face spew out like bile when the trolls and bullies can cower behind a screen. That said, many of them are probably psychopaths in real life when they go about their appointed roles in this culture, but now I am repeating myself.

    On a lighter note (ha!), anyone think that the following could be a slight problem…

    “High-resolution 3D seismic investigation of giant seafloor craters in the Barents Sea”

    http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2016/EGU2016-14375.pdf

    “Multiple giant craters exist on the seafloor in an area of 100 km^2 east of Bear Island Trough in the west-central
    Barents Sea. It has been hypothesized that these craters might have been caused by gas eruptions following the
    last deglaciation. Gas seepage from the seafloor occurs abundantly in this area. The crater area is still likely
    to represent one of the largest hot-spots for shallow marine methane release in the arctic.”

    “The crater structures are up to 1 km wide and 40 m deep. Pingo structures occur on
    the rim of some of the craters and are up to 700 m wide and up to 15 m high above the surrounding seafloor.”

    They indicate that the craters may have formed during the last deglaciation, yet note the area is “still likely” a hot spot for shallow marine methane release.

    But, at least the sea ice cover is going to help keep a lid on this right?!?

    https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    March, 2016

    “Extent is presently below average in the Barents and Kara seas, as well as the Bering Sea and the East Greenland Sea. Extent decreased in the Barents and East Greenland seas during the month of February”

    Well, maybe the sea is still pretty cold though, it is northern winter…

    From:

    https://arctic-news.blogspot.ca/2016/02/methanes-role-in-arctic-warming.html?m=1

    Chart here:

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8quuFggzYjQ/Vr1MrcpejYI/AAAAAAAATvE/nb_wpT1P6-g/s1600/Feb-11-2016.jpg

    From the chart:

    February 11, 2016

    “A 11.2C or 52.2F sea surface temperature, an anomaly of 10.2C or 18.4F near Svalbard”

    The green circle of temp anomaly on the chart near Svalbard is in the west-central Barents Sea.

    A reminder from the top of the page…

    “Multiple giant craters exist on the seafloor in an area of 100 km^2 east of Bear Island Trough in the west-central
    Barents Sea…”

    Johnny Winter – Feedback on Highway 101

  • Great quote from Sagan.

  • Guy, quoting Henry James; “Three things in human life are important. The first is to be kind. The second is to be kind. And the third is to be kind.” I’ve followed NBL for years and though your message is taken by many as negative (it’s not), your presentations are always professional, insightful, thoughtful, and KIND. Seems incongruous given the topics here, but you are an honest, giving, and KIND human being. I thank you again for your efforts.

  • .
    .
    In its liquid form, tritium looks just like water: clear and odorless. Yet it’s radioactive, and in the past two months, two nuclear power plants outside New York City and Miami were found to be leaking tritium: the former into groundwater within the facility’s confines, the second straight into Biscayne Bay. The leaks, revealed in news reports, apparently haven’t contaminated drinking water and don’t pose a threat to human health. But tritium, while less potent than other substances like cesium or strontium or radium, can still be harmful in high enough concentrations, even lethal.
    .
    even lethal
    .
    even lethal
    .
    even lethal
    .
    Just sittin’ on this runaway train, staring out the window with a cat on my lap.
    .

  • “Three things in human life are important. The first is to be kind. The second is to be kind. And the third is to be kind.” – ???

    “Want more sex and to be more popular? Become a BULLY, scientists say… The results showed that bullies, who accounted for around 11 per cent of the group, scored highest when it came to social status and self-esteem.
    They also came lowest when it came to depression.”

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/594432/more-sex-more-popular-Become-school-BULLY-scientists-say

  • Guy, your efforts and candor are appreciated.

  • Thanks for the essay explaining some of the nonsense you have to put up with on a regular basis, Guy. I don’t know how you keep your sanity and remain calm through it all. Apparently, you’re a remarkable person!

    My home computer picked up some adware or other such annoying crap from somewhere (even though I have supposed firewalls and software to deal with it) and I can’t use it any longer for surfing the web, including visiting here regularly. I’m not tech savvy enough to do anything about it and don’t have the funds to get whatever it is “scrubbed” from the infernal machine yet, so I’m grounded.

    I’m like “this close” to going full Luddite and just scrapping all my electronic devices (my phone is ancient also, with a tiny screen I can hardly read).

    i’ll visit to read and comment when I’m at work (where they have a team of I/T people to keep their computers up and running).

    Keep up the good work, Guy!

  • Dr. Guy McPherson, perfectly written. Before we are gone and even after lets all try to share with kindness and humor. Good research does not include using attack words toward anyone. I hope buying your books on Amazon is a form of support. Your Facebook site is a great example of more friendly interaction – yet still dealing with the dire truth of NTE and many other social ills causing NTE.

    Warnings about any problem or product are useful. CINDY LANE I do admire you. Your heart is in the right place blowing the whistle. HERNY (from Sydney) says “Lyr-” is a helpful rx drug and I’m really glad it helps him. I bet all of us could use less sugar in our diets. If possible eat nothing but organic fruit on a remote tropical island. But to be fair, until we go completely extinct, there are 2 sides to every drug story. For the sake of being fair to ARTLEADS please do Google the dozens of brain extracts on the market. They do exist.

    Due to 404 spam block I have to slightlty misspell these examples. I’m only trying to prove they exist. I do not recommend any. Nuvigl, Armodafinl, -iracetam, Provigl, Modafinl – These are examples only because CINDY attacked my credibility. Personally I have tried one above that involved a mix of Gingo-Bilboa. I also take baby aspirin but now I understand that does not matter unless you had a heart attack first. All of the pharmaceutical industry deserves scrutiny. But since your attack is personal I will conclude with a CNN news sample of many articles. The existence of “Smart drugs” is not a hoax. Yet each person has various internal chemistry.

    CNN: “G– first entered the market after army experiments to keep fighters alert, have smart drugs are in the entertainment industry and many of the most demanding brokerage firms.

    Studies have shown improved memory and focus, while establishing few negative side effects. In the US and much of Europe, nootropics are typically available only through prescription. Dave Asprey, a former Silicon Valley entrepreneur and now CEO of (redacted) hopes to normalize their use and says they are already commonplace at the highest levels of business. “When I meet people through work who run companies have many zeroes in their bank accounts, it’s uncommon that they don’t have a baggie full of supplements. They say ‘this is what I take for my brain.'” The substances are more effective than caffeine, and represent progress based on improved understanding of biology and brain function. “Intelligent people want to control their own biology. We understand neural pathways better so we can create custom supplements that help the brain work better, and improve energy so that tasks that required drudgery don’t seem so hard…Cognitive burdens can become effortless.”

    SIR NEMESIS – I completely understand that controlling anything is a mess. But you and know the elite aren’t going to stop. Eat cake and maybe they will find a way off with their own heads. I’m certainly guilty for a decades of being mixed up in stuff like this. I promise I will sail off the grid soon enough.

    Bottom Line: Beyond decommissioning the entire USA nuclear grid, I am not sure about any other issue I mention. LIKE GUY I do think & care about the future evolution of OTHER SPECIES. Forgive me for getting too personal about drugs and work and my concerns about other technological developments. Nanoparticles & Blood-brain barrier neuro mesh are covered in scientific and medical journals. Cell phones signals are conducted via microwaves. CINDY please do your own homework on the reality of Industrial Civilization marketing. Predictive Programming is rapidly progressing to effect all of nature in untested ways. If Earth survives our madness I hope LOVE will remain

  • Tom – Try malware bytes
    It’s a free download and free to try for a week I think. I’ve had very good success at getting rid of adware. Once you let it run and delete your adware, you’ll want to uninstall it because it will run in the background and eat up your CPU.
    If you are on windows, you can also try Start->Control Panel->Add/Remove Programs and look for any strange programs that you don’t recognize or were recently installed – and uninstall them.
    Hope that helps. Cheers


  • @Sir Mark Austin

    I completely understand that controlling anything is a mess. But you and know the elite aren’t going to stop.

    What is it that I don’t stop? Writing at NBL? Man, I am just a nothing, a nobody. If anybody wants me to stop writing at NBL, should say it and then I will stop. I do no harm to nobody. I have no power, I am not Bill Gates or Warren Buffet ect^^

    The more Empire tries to control Mother Earth, the more it will lose control. That’s exactly what we see now and it’s exactly what we will see in the future (if there is any at all).

    Namaste

  • Guy, your efforts at open honesty have paid off handsomely,
    just not the way you expected. Albeit, they do serve as an early warning system.

    Troll Catch Of The Day!

    Can you cry under water?

    How important does a person have to be before they are considered assassinated instead of just murdered?

    Why do you have to ‘put your two cents in’… but it’s only a ‘penny for your thoughts’? Where’s that extra penny going to?

    Why is ‘bra’ singular and ‘panties’ plural?

    no food = no peace.

    Violent Civil Unrest increases 10% / standard deviation of climate change.
    Inter-Personal Violence increases 4% / standard deviation of climate change.

    Since I don’t really know what a standard deviation is and I’m too lazy to look it up, I’ll just pretend to know what I’m talking about, something I seem to have a real skill with.

    If you put all the upcoming violence on a graph, it will look like a upward curve that has a peak, followed by a decline. If you cut that curve in half at the peak, and divide each side into 10 equal sections, you would have what I imagine to be a standard deviation.

    What I’m trying to really say is that numbers are almost meaningless except to make you understand how important some things are. Not what the exact number is imagined to be.

    Violence Food Water in 2050, The optimistic view:
    http://lokisrevengeblog.wordpress.com/2016/03/13/violence-food-water-in-2050/

  • Jus’ Trolling Around.

    If electricity comes from electrons, does morality come from morons?

    If corn oil is made from corn, and vegetable oil is made from vegetables, what is baby oil made from?

    Double Whammy

    Do the Alphabet song and Twinkle, Twinkle Little Star have the same tune? Why did you just try singing the two songs above?

    URL: http://able2know.org/topic/123061-1

  • Collapse of the economic system has been slower than anticipated a decade or so ago but collapse of the environment has been faster.

    The attacks by industrialists, bankers, politicians and real estate speculators etc. on the systems that make life-as-we-know-it possible will not cease, and everything will continue to be made worse. The only way anyone concerned about the future can avoid being attacked is to say nothing. After all, a large portion of the populace of western nations (arguably by far the biggest portion) is utterly demented.

    I suspect that if there was one thing that would shock the world it would be the complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice. We still do not know whether it is likely to occur this year.

    8th 14.367 millionkm2
    9th 14.379
    10th 14.369
    11th 14.371
    12th 14.373
    13th 14.378
    14th 14.367

    With the reporting of a super-heated northern hemisphere, the next few days will be very interesting.

  • Guy ~

    thank you for everything you do, everything you value, and everything you try to demonstrate with your own actions.

    I respect you immensely, and I greatly appreciate your approach with both the evidence, and following the evidence to wherever it leads, no matter how dire. your dedication is remarkable.

    I don’t see that kind of honesty, consistency, boldness and clarity anywhere else.

    very nice work, with very big heart.

    all my best,
    ~ mo


  • @goavs

    Thanks a lot for Johnny Winter, I love that guy!


    John Lennon asked questions too. He asked people’s questions. Therefore the US, the “elite”, the Empire saw him as an enemy.

    The Universe forgets nothing.

    My role in society, or any artist’s or poet’s role, is to try and express what we all feel. Not to tell people how to feel. Not as a preacher, not as a leader, but as a reflection of us all.

    – John Lennon


  • This is rather like the ‘we’re fucked whatever we do’ fictional interview. Only it’s real.

    http://www.newshub.co.nz/tvshows/paulhenry/el-nino-keeps-bringing-warm-weather-for-autumn-2016031513#axzz42xWzFxSG

  • .

    I suspect that if there was one thing that would shock the world it would be the complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice.

    Of course they won’t be shocked. In the big oil city where I live, most people think the arctic goes ice free between every ice age anyway, and that anything they see going on out their windows is all normal and perfectly natural. That’s what they’ve all been told by the big oil companies they work for and who they would defend to the death.

    When people across the country from where I live suffer hard economic times, the locals here deride them as being fools and often will accuse them of being deserving of it somehow or another anyway, because that’s how people keep the bubble around themselves intact. Even when people a hundred miles from where they live start dying, it still won’t burst people’s bubble’s of exceptionalism. It will just be because ‘those’ people (the ‘them’ people) deserved it somehow, or caused it somehow by some other means other than the real reasons for it happening.

    People’s bubbles don’t burst for any other reason than that their bubble has just been burst, and then it’s too late anyway. Then they’re just that other poor sap down the road from someone else who it hasn’t quite affected yet. We’re a pretty clueless species and fall like dominoes because nobody will even step out of the way of what they can plainly see coming. People don’t give a shit about the planet, or about other life forms, or about their future, or even about their children’s futures … they just care about their immediate selves today. The job they have today, or the one they had yesterday before they got angry and started making up false reasons for why it all happened to them, usually blaming it on some other ‘them’ or another. It’s what human’s do. They can rationalize their way out of anything … until their own bubbles burst. But then their voice just disappears too, or gets ignored by others who don’t really want to know either.

    People who try to warn other people quickly become ‘thems’ too. It’s just how we keep those bubbles going, and empire takes full advantage of this too. A summer free arctic will just mean longer Alaskan cruises and that’s all. Nothing to see there but a few dying narwhals who were just getting in the way of our leisure boating anyway. Drill baby drill.

    And on and on it goes, till the fady sings, whenever that is scheduled to happen.

  • Hi Guy,

    Simply wanted to say “thank you” for your work… your great books… and your public speaking and radio show spreading the Truth to the few who will listen. But that “few” is growing.

    Take care, Doug.

  • Cowgirl Apocalypse Haiku #124

    Turkeys fan and strut-
    wild gobbling as I pass by,
    on my haiku hunt.

  • I spent a few minutes reading some of the comments about the link I posted above.One of the commenters makes an argument similar to the comment below,which apparently appeared on twitter:

    ‘If climate change turns out to be real,I will blame the alarmists for the endless hype turning off everyone to real danger.’

  • God I love this site.

    Thank you to all commenters for delving into issues I’d never before heard intensively analyzed/discussed, & thus never committed significantly appropriate time to ponder.

    Just one rather isolated, uneducated voice, & I don’t have anything new/illuminating to contribute.

    But I have to express this emotion I feel, so often when I go through the latest essay/comments, of vindication with my own long held beliefs that our contemporary set-up was doomed to perish.

    If one comes to a stage of acceptance(& can STAY there), what should one do next?

  • .

    How honored I am to be the subject of your most current haiku Denise. Thanks for noticing. 😉

    The blues doesn’t have
    To be sad and lonelyish
    Watch how Ray does it

    .

  • @ Guy
    If it makes any difference, I appreciate you.

    Best Wishes

    P.S. Thanks for letting me express myself on your site. You’re a valuable and unique individual

  • Guy,

    Very thought provoking work that you do.

    Thank you.

    Any observations on the recent temperature records that are being broken, monthly, daily and perhaps an update on your overall perspective given those new temp records? (Keep the videos coming!)

    Thanks again,
    Tom

  • Cowgirl Denise ~

    I love that latest turkey haiku! oh that is good.

    I have an especially fond spot for your recent rabbit/stone haiku as well.

    we have wild rabbits and turkeys galore here. your haikus capture their respective spirits perfectly. 🙂

  • Has anyone here heard of what they’re calling Beirut’s “River of Trash”?

    It strikes me as kind of an iconic image for industrial breakdown.

    http://ahmadalikarim.wordpress.com/2016/02/29/beiruts-river-of-trash-what-can-we-learn-from-it/

    http://news.discovery.com/earth/massive-river-of-trash-chokes-beirut-photos-160311.htm

  • @ Guy

    No one likes being questioned, especially those who have falsely assumed a degree of authority. It naturally makes us defensive as if we’re being personally attacked, so we often feel inclined to defend our position rather than explain ourselves most often to ourselves. And given that I don’t believe anyone truly knows who they are, most of us tend to avoid self-reflection and focus on the shortcomings of others.

    In this, I suspect we are all to blame.

    Guy, I see you as a prime example of someone who is not only incapable of responding to his critics in a cordial manner, but who heavily relies on childish name calling, even when calling out others presumed mean spiritedness.

    Well at least you don’t consider me a troll……at least for now.

    I find it odd that you would be so offended about questions of money, when I’ve actually made far more probing inquirers, which in my opinion, is what truly inspired this retort, for I suspect you’re gleaning from my recent comments a declining lack of respect for not only what you think you’re achieving by touring the world advocating highly unscientific specific dates for NTE, but more importantly, your ever growing egotism and vanity in conflating the message with the messenger.

    If you think I’m being “exceptionally personal” in asking you questions about money, then I fear you have a very shallow understanding of how exceptionally personal questions can get, especially given I’ve come to see you as a rather self-important charlatan who hasn’t a clue as to what you’re doing, and is only pretending to possess authority where there is none. And I say this as someone who very much considered NTE to be nigh.

    But hey, if you want to take grave offense on the subject of money, then by all means let’s get after it. We can get around to the far more personal stuff later.

    First as to whether or not my questions were as you claim “exceptionally personal and incredibly inappropriate”.

    Let’s not start with thinking I’m somehow unfamiliar with how secretive and closed lipped people are about money. The far greater question, especially in context to radicalism, is why is that so? It’s kind of an important question given it governs our lives more than anything else.

    Remember, we’re subjective creatures who tend to project our idiosyncratic cultural values onto others—as I am most likely doing now—imagining there to be a “standard” where often times there isn’t one.

    Given I’ve been a lifelong anarchist, what do you think the chances are that I have an entirely different perception of the role and reward money has played throughout our destructive history, wherein spite of our noblest efforts that role has undermined virtually everything?

    I believe your conservative roots are showing a bit in taking such offense to the point of even needing to reference your parents. So how did this subject ever become something is which you culturally believe to be subject non grata?

    Could it be guilt that some have more than others, whereby striking at the heart of our inherent inequality? Could it be that people are secretive because they are ashamed of what they do or have done to make it? Could it be that deep down we all know we’re hypocrites because we’ve espoused higher ideals than our money grubbing hands have ever allowed? Could it be that in spite of our egalitarian ethics, we will spend most of our time on earth dedicated to earning a living in a suicidal economic system? Could it be that we have spent most of our lives living in denial of that fact? Could it be that nothing reveals the degree of our cognitive dissonance in being inculcated liars more than the question of money? Could it be that in spite of whatever we believe to be true, at the end of the day we will sacrifice most everything to avoid financial destitution? Could it be that we are nothing more than liars, and we’ve been lying to ourselves for so long our culture has established mores as to what is and isn’t considered an “inappropriate question”? Could it be that western civ has been spoon feeding us the ‘protestant work ethic’ for centuries, and not unlike our Calvinist forbearers we equate money with god and therefore our relationship to it, is no less perceived as being sacred? Could it be that deep down in our souls, we all understand the Faustian bargain, for there is no such thing as money without growth, so it’s best not to talk about it? Could it be that in spite of our best intentions, we are no less part of the problem, for even the modest level of greed we must sustain in keeping ourselves housed and fed is more than enough to destroy this world?

    Who knows? But while money lies at the heart of everything we do, isn’t it strange how reluctant we are to disclose our relationship to it, and how easily offended we become when others question that relationship.

    If you consider me rude, offensive, impolite, inappropriate or any other term you seem to have borrowed from a conservative book on table etiquette, be thankful I no longer post here much, otherwise you might be forced to consider me a “troll” for pointing out far more egregiousness other than your hypocritical “pursuits of excellence” on other people’s dime.

    I know you’re enamored with the thought of “getting the word out”, but psst…….there’s no there, there.

  • bravo, daniel! great reply to guy.

    guy, u’re very talented and intelligent, but also very flawed, one of those flaws being the way u respond to criticism or mere honest questions suggesting one (or more) of your assertion(s) aren’t scientifically defensible. (exasperated sigh) this particular flaw is glaring and apparently immutable, which is why i’ve learned to just overlook (and not provoke!) it for the most part. it’s kind of like this blog. lots of bs, but lots of great stuff, too. overlook the bad, don’t get caught up in it. revel in the good.

  • Hey Doc: Do you think I am a “Troll” ? I routinely post things here that are my “Belief” and not supported by “Scientific” evidence. But then, even so-called “Scientists” routinely ignore any data that does not conform to their “Beliefs” (Evolution) . Case in point. The Paluxy river footprints are fossilized dinosaur footprints that have human footprints intertwined with them. When “Scientists” were confronted with this, they declared it a hoax without even investigating the data. Fortunately , they are still well preserved and available for study.
    Please reply.
    John

  • “On the topic of trolls, they’re abundant and easy to spot. They don’t ask questions. Rather, they proclaim knowledge, rooted in belief and unshackled by evidence.”
    GM

  • I will come see you when you get to Fountain Valley in May. I will have a nice donation of Fiat currency for you as well.
    John

  • Bravo Daniel and the virgin terry. You’ve convinced yourselves that evidence is irrelevant. You’ve launched the customary attack I’ve come to expect, completely free from evidence. And you believe you’ve performed a public service.

    I’m open, as always, to having my errors exposed. You’ve failed to mention even a single one Please start by reading this essay. Bravo!

  • Please excuse my ignorance.

    I cant really understand (between all the mud slinging)…what the argument is? is it the difference between a rationalist and a humanist…. do we really need a label?
    What was Edward Goldsmith??,he came to all the same conclusions as Guy Did but had total disdain for science.His argument was that science fueled industrial civilization, or the lie we all live
    Is there a place in the middle..are you allowed to??
    Is there an us and them division,because i dont think anyone would dispute the evidence.But is music just a mathematical equation?
    Because i believe in both Edward Goldsmith and Guy McPherson. In fact they are my heros today.They both speak to my heart,one who comes from Science the other had disdain for it.
    Should i be considered unbalanced here?

  • guy, i’d like to see u submit the claim that we’re all gonna be dead in 15 years, backed by your ‘evidence’, for peer reviewed publication. think u can?

    how ’bout that one from about 4 years ago that the continental interiors would be uninhabitable in 5 years? how much chance u have of making that pig fly?

    then there was the one that industrial civ. would be completely kaput by the end of 2012. u didn’t begin to back off from that one until near the end of 2012, as i recall. it’s foolish to make outrageous claims, and even more foolish to stand by them to the bitter end. brings to mind those christians who predict the second coming by such and such date… and when proven wrong, instead of learning a lesson, turn around and issue a new claim that it’s coming at by such and such date, just pushed ahead a little further into the future. (sigh!)

  • dANIEL

    cease

  • Tom:

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  • there’s been a curtis a. heretic sighting! back from the dead, perhaps?!

  • tvt:

    East Texas/Louisiana, and South Florida close to uninhabitable. Be patient, not much longer to wait. The direction is clear. If you want to help it along, vote for Trump.

  • ‘…Edward Goldsmith??,he came to all the same conclusions as Guy Did but had total disdain for science.His argument was that science fueled industrial civilization, or the lie we all live.’

    Conflating industrial civilisation and lying and implying they amount to the same thing, and implying that science is to blame for the mess in does not help.

    I will not be dislodged from the viewpoint that technology and the misuse of science (or the deliberate ignoring of science) are the cause of the mess we are in.

    Let’s revisit 1965: evidence (scientific evidence) was mounting that carbon dioxide was increasing in the atmosphere as a result of industrial activity; a presidential task force was charged with examining the scientific evidence and making recommendations. The group examined the evidence and determined the CO2-induced overheating scenario was valid, and suggested that a completely different approach to running the economy was necessary, otherwise humanity would be in deep trouble a few decades later. (That conclusion corresponded with what Arrhenius, Swedish scientist, had indicated about 70 years previously.)

    The scientific conclusions of the presidential task force did not sit well with industrialists and money-lenders, and the report was doctored to suggest that the CO2 ‘problem’ had been overstated and that business-as-usual could continue, not on the basis of the science but on the basis of ‘What’s good for General Motors is good for America’, i.e. the money, power and greed factors.

    50 years later governments throughout the world continue to ignore the science and kowtow to the short-term agendas of industrialists, opportunists and money-lenders.

    I still have not been dislodged from the viewpoint that technology and the misuse of science (or the deliberate ignoring of science) are the prime cause of the predicament we are in.

  • Kevin, still haven’t figured it out? The prime cause is that we are an evolutionary dead end – plain and simple. You still think it could have or should have been different? There’s your trouble.

  • I’m somewhat baffled by the number of people who regularly visit Guy’s website when they apparently don’t have any respect for him or his work. What’s the deal? Are you like Malcolm McDowell from Clockwork Orange, restrained with your eyes pried open and no control over your computer mouse? I don’t get it.

    Now, here’s a song inspired by all the talk about math and science, with footage from the movie “Pi” (in honor of yesterday’s holiday)…

  • Well, possibly another feedback loop.
    Pan-Arctic ice-wedge degradation in warming permafrost and its influence on tundra hydrology

    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2016-03/uoaf-diw031116.php

    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2016-03/uoaf-diw031116.php

    paywalled of course, however, if you click on “contributions” and download Supplenentary Informationn ngeo2674-s1.pdf – you do get a grasp of the attention to detail of this article. I am very impressed.

    For me the gist of it was, maybe every 5 years huge changes are occurring and will ramp up the drainage of the far north. True, it will have a limiting cap in the decades to come, but will ramp up fast.

    This paper is so much better than the non-paywalled aerosol NGEO paper also in the news. The quite theoretical assigning of input of JUST europes loss of aerosols is a wasted gedanken (thought experiment). Without a commitment to doing at least a hemispherical analysis – it should not even be in the news.

    For a decent source of papers about aerosols, I still say AbruptSLR at the Arctic Sea Ice forum is quite good.

    For me, my own running gedanken process running in the deep background in my brain is whether or not this present el nino has one more blast of hot air (actually water) eastward. Vader and Abrupt are using the same basic data (which is over my head) to quite civilly debate the possibilities of how this el nino will end.

    In the end, it will be about as important as a fart, but as I approach senescence, it is a coping mechanism.

    Work, I am done pumping the damn brakes on the van. In the end, would you want your child to work at your work place. Another thought experiment, I know. I know I have no children. I do have one niece and one nephew.

  • Nemesis,

    Here’s what you quoted from Marc Austin:

    “ I completely understand that controlling anything is a mess. But you and know the elite aren’t going to stop.”

    What Marc probably overlooked was putting “I” between ‘and’ and ‘know’, which would have made it:

    “I completely understand that controlling anything is a mess. But you and I know the elite aren’t going to stop.”

    Sometime one is enough.

    Even a blind man knows when the sun is shining.

  • mo, Since one of my two posts was public service, I think I have one more due.

    tvt: As far as I know I have not been dead. I get bored by long winded gasbags, arguing about off topic subjects equivalent to, “how many angels can dance on the head of a pin”. My limit is 3 paragraphs, reading or writing.

    I am just hiding out, sitting in my lawn chair, with a cool fruit juice drink, and a bag of popcorn, and watching temperature increases make bigger fools of the deniers.

  • @ Kevin Moore
    “I will not be dislodged from the viewpoint that technology and the misuse of science (or the deliberate ignoring of science) are the cause of the mess we are in”.

    Hi Kevin..Thanks for the reply
    My statement echoes yours
    so i agree
    I would just sound better the way you have put it
    so i will rephrase
    (Goldsmith)His argument was that science (or the misuse of, or the deliberate ignoring) fueled industrial civilization, or the lie we all live

    Goldsmith believed in the traditional taboos as they were structured to protect our water, soil and air our lifeblood and health.And traditional owners had these taboos in place, as they knew if they were broken that all Hell would break loose(ie industrial civilization).
    My point was that he got to his conclusions of N.T.E from observations of a humanist perspective not a scientific one

  • Nice redirect Guy!

    If your response is to suggest that TVT and I familiarize ourselves with the evidence of NTE, when both of us have written fairly extensively on this very subject in this space for several years now, then you’re seriously grasping at straws given that none of the criticism being leveled against you has anything to do with the evidence of abrupt climate change.

  • I have a question. Forgive me if it’s impertinent. I’ve just listened to your James Fetzer episode. Do you vet your guests for sanity? If not, will you start?

  • Dr McPherson,

    I assumed as much about your financial situation from the statements you had made about your life choices. Surprised Daniel didn’t get it. Maybe that wasn’t the point of the question, who knows? Non illegatinum carborundum as they say.

    It’s happening in real time and much faster than expected. Non linear changes.

    Kevin Moore,

    They pulled a fast one after people learned about CO2 in the 60s. This was to implement the smog controls on vehicles which cleaned up nearly all but the colourless and odourless gases. So people were duped into thinking the problems were solved and all was well. Cars went from being portrayed in ads from fire breathing behemoths to cute little smiley Noddy cars.

    I recall visiting LA in the 60s, the smog was really thick. The sun was kind of a dark orange after about 3:00 pm. Industrial orange we called it. A lot of dimming.

    I think they’ll keep the financialization going at least until after the election, but who knows how long really, many thought it would be over before 2008. It’s easy for them to do, they can tell the public whatever they want. The obfuscation, imprinting and storytelling has been so thick and heavy for so long most people haven’t a clue and just follow along. If there is any sign of resistance or rebellion they can just shut off the fiat machines, devalue, deflate as in Greece or Argentina. Or would you care to try the Zimbabwe model?

  • Wester, Curtis (A.H): thanks for the suggestions. Something (at least temporarily) worked, as I’m back – seeing that now we have two Tom’s! Ha-haaaa! The small t tom isn’t me, fwiw.

    Why do people think Industrial Civ. will just all-of-a-sudden STOP at such and such a date? To me, it’s crashing in its own time – be patient – it’ll be here soon enough. As you know I tossed out the ‘2019’ date a few years ago, but only hypothesizing that by then, everyone will know we’re looking at the end of the line (and that no one will survive the 2020’s, imho). I actually “hope” I’m completely wrong and that something alters our course, but I can’t imagine any such scenario, since we keep doing the same activities that guarantee our eventual demise (via destroying our habitat), day after day.

    Jim: I find Fetzer completely believable and will check out his site as soon as I have some time.

    Wednesday, 16 March 2016
    http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2016/03/the-bad-climate-news-makes-it-onto-new.html

    Climate Denier Paul Henry shocked at climate change – laughs it off anyway

  • Isn’t everyone using Linux?

    Curtis A. Heretic writes:

    “East Texas/Louisiana, and South Florida close to uninhabitable. Be patient, not much longer to wait.”

    You got that right! What a huge plant brownout from New Orleans to Tampa and points south. I wonder if it somehow related to the
    Corexit® ™ but I must confess I have not done the chemistry or the plant physiology to confirm or deny this. It ain’t pretty.

    I’m gonna start cayenne, habanero and sweet bell peppers today via certified organic/non-GMO/heirloom seed. I make a mean spicy, garlic, chipotle hummus. The cayenne and habanero are necessary ingredients to make that. 🙂 Garlic is growing nicely after this incredibly mild winter.

  • dANIEL

    As stated, you are INDEED inappropriate. ‘Pathetic’ is a much better term. And if you could truly stand back and look at your contributions to this forum objectively, you would see that. Not that you’re about to “explain yourself to yourself.”

  • How to fix your computer, first clue invite Bill Gates over.

    Blowing your Gaian credit card

    http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/how-many-gigatons-of-co2/

    Germany says fuck you on coal, my comments unwelcome there.

    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/03/14/german-co2-emissions-rise-10-million-tonnes-in-2015/

  • @the virgin terry

    Dude ! ” Good things come to those who wait ” be happy that you can still enjoy the conditions you are in , assuming that you live a life of a privileged white male in the western industrial north (or south) . The tragedy of the evidence with this IS that the moment it comes to pass there will not be a means for you to say .. ” Yes Guy was right ” But you wouldn`t say that anyway . But let me ask you what are you doing than here anyway ? Ok Guy wasn`t right .. You can go away now ..You turned out to be smarter than that and you are off .. Good luck be happy bye bye

  • I’m curious, Daniel. The essay you submitted a few years ago, the one that received so much attention and praise on this website, dealt with coming to grips with NTE. No hedging. No alternative interpretation of the evidence.

    I read your essay at least twice but it’s been a while and I’m getting forgetful in my old age. Were Professor McPherson’s website/writings/links part of the evidence you used in creating this essay and forming your conclusion? If not, from what sources did you draw upon? Again, if not, do you acknowledge that Guy’s work has helped others in this regard?

    “And I say this as someone who very much considered NTE to be nigh.”

    Do you still believe NTE to be nigh?

    If not, I would love to hear your reasoning. I have been one of the “reluctants” to let go of the possibility of a decent future for my own children, and the kids on the bus. (I drive a school bus) Logically and, perhaps even philosophically, I can grasp the notion of a dire and bleak tomorrow. It does not seem possible that we can avoid it. But emotionally I’m not yet there, and I don’t even want to go there.

    If you still believe in NTE, and if Guy’s work has influenced these views, I don’t understand your words:

    “I’ve come to see you as a rather self-important charlatan who hasn’t a clue as to what you’re doing, and is only pretending to possess authority where there is none.”

    This has been a long journey for me. For all of us. But especially for Dr. McPherson. If you’ve taken the time to read his earliest essays, from way back in 2007, and I’m sure you have, you must understand this. He’s been ahead of the curve for a long time. And that’s a lonely and depressing place to be. Is he flawed? Of course he is. How can anyone who has made that journey not be? He is human, after all.

    Sometimes it has seemed to me that at least some of us who comment here have placed Guy up on some sort of bizarre pedestal. What human being could not, to at least a small degree, feed off of that?

    Yes. To be honest I have cringed at some of his responses to criticism over the years. I wish he had a thicker skin. Accepting skepticism and criticism should, I think, come naturally to a scientist. And over the years I wish he had hedged his bet with a more generic message; acknowledging the overwhelming case for a grim future and, perhaps, even NTE. But then showing himself to be fallible with the addendum “I would be grateful to hear of any scientifically based evidence to the contrary.” I think that would have been a more widely understood and received message.

    But I have not heard of any scientific evidence to the contrary. And all of this is just me, placing an unreasonable and unrealistic demand upon Dr. McPherson to be my image of “perfection”. He is who he is. Take it or not. The fact remains, however, that Guy McPherson has done more to bring these events and these trends to the attention of the public than any other person I know of. I look upon that as a great service to myself and others. That is not the definition of charlatan, at least not in my dictionary.

    The thing is, whenever any of us look into a mirror, we should be truthful enough to admit that we see a jerk looking back. Expecting perfection in others seems to be a rather fruitless, and ultimately futile endeavor.

    I hope you continue commenting and perhaps even submitting essays here. You are an exceptionally skilled and gifted writer. Your personal history of “fighting the good fight” would be an interesting read, at least to me. And I hope that someday you and Dr. McPherson can come to see the good in each other.

  • What John Stassek said.

    Dealing with this knowledge is extremely stressful. That stress is going to manifest in different ways depending on our character.
    Try to be kind.

  • As someone who mostly lurks on the site, I find myself completely sharing the reaction of John Stassek.

    I can’t figure out where the argument is here. Is it over whether humans really will go extinct in the near term (btw for similar reasons with John I don’t accept this myself)? Or is it the 2030 date Guy proposed in one of his earlier essays? Is the issue just over how Guy earns a living?

  • Everyone has regrets, but I think you would hate yourself if you shut your mouth and did as your university wanted so you could keep your job. You are rare in that you do not let a paycheck determine what is truth. Many people have lots of respect for you and just look at the trolls and shills with pity and amusement. Behind every strong voice for truth and sanity there is a long line of haters and simple minded people who can’t think past their next cheeseburger.

  • seconding completely John Stassek, 44 south, and Ed.

    Guy is doing what he does in the context of a world full of people who comment, and think, as in the twitter example david higham shared above.

    that says enough for me.

  • people…did you take your walk yet? right behind you ogardener…tomatoes and peppers. drivel, is wringing your hands waiting for disaster.

  • Well, the basic message is in the climate summary. And the offered interpretation could hardly be more extreme. Things don’t look good, but the blanket statements and missed predictions say more about the author than they do about the data. Beyond that, the internet is still a kind of wild and wooly place where the whole unfiltered gamut of human personalities is loose for better or worse, and establishing a public presence in it automatically opens one up to a lot of garbage. The phrase “shoot the messenger” carries the weight of history with it, and all the off-message material tends to veer into the swamp of the subjective. Which feeds a lot of discussion, and it’s not always pretty or even coherent. Expecting all players to be polite is a little like expecting Industrial Civilization to stop generating heat. If it’s found to be excessively offensive, perhaps it would be possible to simply stop explaining yourself and let the squawking just fade out. Or find a way to ignore it. Or turn off the comments.

  • @ John Stassek

    Good lord, I’ve made one of most tragic grammatical errors possible, thank you so much for pointing it out. I did not intend to write “And I say this as someone who very much considered NTE to be nigh.” That should have said ‘considers’, not ‘considered’. I very much believe that NTE is currently in effect, it’s rather embarrassing that such a poorly timed oversight could have such a significant swing of meaning. Arrggg!

    As to “perfection being the enemy of the good”, I couldn’t agree with you more, we are all deeply flawed and I believe we all need to take a very long look in the mirror at our bullshit, especially Guy.

    When Guy posted “We’re Done”, I was willing to overlook Light’s poorly researched 2031.4 date, because anyone who had been following climate science long before 2009, were somewhere in the process of losing our shit. 2009-2010 changed everything; the worst of the worst case scenarios was coming far sooner than anyone thought possible. Literally everything I had been striving for, for decades just came to an end, collapse wasn’t going to come fast enough to prevent runaway climate chaos, and needless to say it was a very heavy time, as it is still.

    But that was then, the peak oil theory/community still had a leg to stand on, NBL was still run by someone who advocated “walking away from empire”, not wishing he could walk back, and Fukushima had yet to completely spell out probably one of the greatest failures of analysis over the last twenty years, which was our collective failure to cross reference grid collapse with nuclear containment pools. That failure was so egregious, it alone, should give us all serious pause as to our ability to predict anything. Yes, Guy talks about it now, but it’s only in hindsight and there is simply no excuse that we failed to seriously take such a grave circumstance into consideration long before Fukushima.

    So what do we have now? Besides an irradiated ocean, we have crude oil at a thirteen year low, capitalism is still dictating every aspect of our lives, and all the friends and family who didn’t heed my advice to abandon their lives for the sake of local food security have seen their houses practically double in value. Guy’s track record for predicting the timing of earth shattering events is as horrible as my own; the big difference is he went public with his.

    Guy bought into all those failed predictions as much as anyone, and then some. And yet, in spite of “our” exceptionally poor track record, along with his list of failed predictions, here we still are today imaging that Guy has the magical meritocratic ability to predict the timing of an even more complex system? And we do this, even knowing that the basis for “his” sensational precise timing for the end of life on earth—in which his name will most likely be remembered—is founded on someone else’s arguably unscientific research? (Have you taken the time to look at how Malcolm Light achieved his latest 2023 date for NTE?)

    Apart from the fact that Guy has flippantly reneged on the very core principles in which he had built his reputation (and in my little world that is no small thing), he has very much sought to make a name for himself in promoting something which simply isn’t his. And this process or evolution has in my opinion revealed someone who is very much driven by ego, hence his inability to address his critics in a reasonable manner.

    I don’t know when the long list of contributing factors leading to NTE turned into Guy’s personal roadshow, but considering all of our past failures to gauge the timing of large scale events, he “should”, at least in my opinion, be displaying far greater humility rather than going out of his way to compare himself to probably the greatest revolutionary of the modern era.

    I once admired Guy for having “walked away”, it’s probably the only reason I blogged at NBL, and I very much appreciated his candor in writing “We’re Done”; aside from Lovelock, he was one of the first to state the obvious. But I do not look up to Guy, and I certainly don’t need him to be perfect. What I have a probable with, aside from vanity and hypocrisy, is exactly as you implied, we all need to look in the mirror and see the hubris looking back. None of us are where we think we are. The evidence detailing NTE is in my opinion overwhelming, and while it’s more than self-evident we’ve run out of time for human agency to be relevant, none of this validates making predictions as to exact date life on earth will end.

    In other words, it’s absurd the Guy continues to promote Light’s date for NTE.

    Thanks for taking the time to write such a thoughtful comment and pointing out such a foolish error.

    May we all learn to live with such staggering ambiguity, take care!

  • IMPORTANT: Why Killary is more dangerous than Grump.

    She will kill the earth, and anyone who gets in her way.

    Just ask the people of Honduras. Why?

    http://lokisrevengeblog.wordpress.com/2016/03/16/why-i-am-much-more-afraid-of-killary-than-grump/


  • @Feed Jake

    Hey, thanks a lot for Buddy Emmons! Great stuff. I never heard that pedal steel guitar style on jazz tunes, great. I have to admit, that I am more into the “dirty”, rough blues style, like this:


    @LWA

    Thanks for Ray Charles and the Blues Brothers! Legendary.

    @Robert Callaghan

    Thanks for another great johnny Winter tune!

    @infanttyrone

    Hey thanks for clarification. I guess you are right, Mark Austin just forgot an “I”. And thanks for the Greatful Dead, beautiful, sensitive song.

    @Guy McPherson

    Thanks for that great essay of yours and special thanks for staying cool about some weird comments regarding your reputation. No matter, if 2030 or 2031, we are heading towards the End of Empire. The Empire path of exploitation, slavery, wishful thinking, cheating and lying can’t go on forever, that was clear right from the beginning of Empire already, because it just got a built-in self-destruct mechanism.


  • In response to all Johnny Winter afficionados, here he is again on top of his Blues art, acoustic bottleneck style:



    R.I.P., Sir Johnny Winter.

  • Great essay, Guy. You have to know that you have FAR more supporters and those who will always “back you” than the trolls and duche bags that lurk here and there. I continue to support you in the (thankless) work you’re doing. And please come to St. Paul, MN. We’d love to have you speak here!

    Patrick

  • tvt highlighted the mistake of assigning fairly precise time frames to particular events or outcomes: when the time frame expires and there has been no significant change the forecaster’s credibility takes a hit.

    We have discussed this aspect many times before. Indicating no time frame renders a forecast irrelevant; indicating the wrong time frame can leave the forecaster looking foolish.

    Much of the forecasting of collapse of industrial civilisation was founded on the availability of liquid fuels derived from petroleum; Hubbert, Campbell & Laherrere, Simons and dozens of others indicated a crisis of supply between 2005 and 2015 and a commensurate surge in price. As we all know, extraction from tar sands and fracking etc. propped up the supply after the extraction of conventional oil peaked around 2006. The general impoverishment of people and lack of demand in recent times combined with oversupply to clobber prices.

    The matter of ‘stranded oil’, the oil that is on oil companies books but cannot be extracted because of its effect on climate has received little attention lately, as far as I can tell; to inconvenient to be mentioned in ‘polite society’. The lift in oil prices from the super-lows to around $40 may be sufficient to keep oil companies solvent and extracting, though low prices have restrained exploration and capex.

    All the recent credible analyses I have seen indicate a significant global fall in internationally traded oil commencing 2016. Those analyses could be wrong.

    None of the short-term considerations alter the fact that oil is a finite resource which becomes more difficult to extract as time goes on and that industrial civilisation cannot function without it. There are no substitutes. Hence, industrial civilisation must collapse.

    There is no confusion when it comes to CO2. Short-term fluctuations due to varying amounts being absorbed by vegetation and the oceans do not alter the inexorable upward trend in atmospheric concentration. However, as most of us know, there is no sharp transition point beyond which industrial civilisation cannot function because of CO2-induced overheating, just an inexorable worsening of climate which makes it more difficult for industrial civilisation to function.

    The situation with respect to methane is still unclear. The potential to cause faster overheating exists but there are many unknowns, especially the temperature at which clathrates are substantially destabilised and whether OH in the atmosphere will be overwhelmed or not.

    Anyone who understands the financial system recognises that it is fraudulent and doomed to collapse. As with oil, over many years I have seen and read many presentations by credible people who have predicted collapse at various times -all of them wrong. Until recently You Tube had numerous videos declaring ‘100 certain collapse in February 2016’. And now the date is 28th May 2016.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEEoqKUc3bQ

    Presumably, when it doesn’t happen the time frame will be pushed forward to September 2016.

    Having said that, it is worth noting that negative interest rates have been introduced in numerous countries, and negative interest rates were unprecedented in the history of banking. There is a smell of desperation in the air.

    Looking at the Arctic sea ice, we see that the cover has increased substantially from 14.367 to 14.402 millionkm2. That may well be because massive quantities of freshwater (with a higher freezing point) are pouring off overheated Siberia. I really do not know.

    I remember Mike Rupppert ‘running round with his hair on fire’ in 2011, declaring it was ‘all over’ and that people would soon not be able to harvest their vegetables because of contamination from Fukushima. The there were the people who said it would be impossible to remove the spent fuel rods without them overheating and exploding or being ripped apart by contact with steel structures. Sure, Fukushima is a shocking mess, but life goes on in Japan and on the west coast of America. Mike may have lived on if he had not convinced himself everything was everything shitty and the end was near.

    A year ago it certainly looked as though the western 1/3 of the US was in deep trouble with respect to water. But substantial rain has brought most of the region back from the brink.

    http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

    Locally things look bad. The dairy sector faces yet another cut in the payout to farmers as international auction prices continue to decline (due to global overproduction and US-instigated sanctions on Russia). The slight recovery in oil prices is not sufficient to restore confidence. Numerous retail premises in the CBD remain empty, their tenants squeezed out by high costs. As far as I am concerned one third of the populace looks dreadful: grossly overweight and badly dressed, many covered in tattoos, they slouch and stumble from vehicles to supermarket isles or queue at fast-food outlets.

    One aspect that has really astounded me has been the surge in tourism: with the world going broke one would think tourist numbers would be down.

    On the other hand, I am not at all surprised by the record immigration (around 67,000 per annum last I saw). Most other places seem to be in a worse state than NZ.

    Tom mentioned his gut-feeling 2019 again:

    ‘Why do people think Industrial Civ. will just all-of-a-sudden STOP at such and such a date? To me, it’s crashing in its own time – be patient – it’ll be here soon enough. As you know I tossed out the ‘2019’ date a few years ago, but only hypothesizing that by then, everyone will know we’re looking at the end of the line (and that no one will survive the 2020’s, imho).’

    Several years ago I put up a sign in a local organic shop situated next to an orchard (subsequently closed and bulldozed for redevelopment into housing) on which I declared (amongst other things):

    ‘Most of the things people currently take for granted will disappear by 2020’.

    I still feel comfortable with that statement.

    With so many of the aspects being non-linear, no one knows what the 2020s or 2030s will be like. They just won’t anything like what we have now.

    My gut-feeling is that there won’t be a multi-digit temperature rise in few years but death by a thousand cuts via climate chaos, with the cuts coming faster and deeper as time goes on.

    Interestingly, it has been rather hot and dry for many weeks but the last few days saw light rain and now it pouring down. It all looks so normal.

  • Ditto with the “yeasayers” in the last few posts – the last time I checked it was “Dr.” Guy McPherson not Saint Guy McPherson.

    I think it is probably incumbent upon us to check within now and then and gauge the vast, gaping wind-whistling void that has opened up in each of us between what our conscious and subconscious minds are wrestling with and what our rational and irrational sides currently contest. We are probably all being driven slowly mad by all of this – a little slack, a little more mercy is needed.

    When things do start to unravel the first thing to go will be the inet and then all of this when/who/what/how will be moot:

    “We cannot revive old factions
    We cannot restore old policies
    Or follow an antique drum.
    These men, and those who opposed them
    And those whom they opposed
    Accept the constitution of silence
    And are folded in a single party.
    Whatever we inherit from the fortunate
    We have taken from the defeated
    What they had to leave us—a symbol:
    A symbol perfected in death.
    And all shall be well and
    All manner of thing shall be well

    By the purification of the motive
    In the ground of our beseeching.

    T.S. Eliot (Four Quartets: Little Gidding)

  • Robert Callaghan Says: IMPORTANT: Why Killary is more dangerous than Grump.

    She will kill the earth, and anyone who gets in her way.

    I hear you. If I still thought there was hope I’d be more bummed given that Sanders actually supports a tax on CO2 emissions whereas Clinton favors bullshit cap’n’trade. But as we NBLers know, it’s already too late. Catastrophic climate change is baked into the cake. We’ll all be dead by 2030. Bottom line – Hillary will win the battle (the presidency she so desperately covets) but will loose the war (unbeknownst to her, she’s stepping into the biggest shit-storm imaginable).

  • I’ve said this before guy, I think you can still find another job in the college system. Even if it were a community college, you’d still be teaching. I think you ought to consider it before too many years have passed since your last job, before you become too old or before people start to think you’ve become irrelevant. And stop making predictions.

  • Hey! I’m response number 70! That’s like response number 69, only with one finger up your ass.

  • My understanding of NTE, and I’m willing to be corrected, is that the Earth’s ecology is being terraformed into a planet that can no longer support humans.

    Humans can not live at certain temperatures, levels of atmospheric pressure, with certain mixtures of gasses, certain levels of radiation, and so on. Its possible to release enough gasses in the atmosphere to achieve these conditions. My understanding is that these gasses are in the process of being released.

    It may be possible to construct space capsule like artificial environments to enable a few humans to continue to live on such a planet, but without support from a nearby “living” planet they can’t last long. This is also why its possible to change the planetary ecology to the point where even small bands of human hunter-gatherers, living in polar regions, would no longer be able to live.

    My understanding is that Guy is saying that this is both happening, and its too late to change it.

    Ironically, the industrial processes poisoning the planet are also necessary to keep the human population greater than several hundred million or so, so even if they shut down in time to prevent making the planet inhospitable for all humans, the human population would be so devastated that the survivors would be psychologically and logistically unable to carry on the civilization that humans created.

    I think its hard to refute this argument, and the only grounds of hope that since this has never happened in recorded history, we don’t know exactly what will happen. There may be some positive feedback loop that will take everyone by surprise. Also, since the process is unprecedented, its hard to determine what will happen exactly or when, which in turn makes it very hard to prepare. So I think publicizing a projected date (of what? when the last human finally dies?) was not a good idea, though the message is much weaker otherwise. I also suspect that the final changes will happen really quickly, either the planet supports human life or it doesn’t.

  • Daniel,

    I was pretty sure you meant to use “considers” , rather than “considered” in your comment of March 15, at 3:57pm. I know that use of the word “hope” is ridiculed here but in all honesty I was hoping you had found some evidence for hope! (:

    I’m glad you agree with me concerning our universally shared and flawed nature, but your acknowledgement, if you pardon my candor, appeared halfhearted at best:

    “As to “perfection being the enemy of the good”, I couldn’t agree with you more, we are all deeply flawed and I believe we all need to take a very long look in the mirror at our bullshit, especially Guy.”

    You can’t seem to get over this anger directed towards Professor McPherson, particularly in his timeline predictions. What possible difference does it make, in the context of NTE? This is the whole argument over how many angels can dance on the head of a pin, again. What possible difference does it make if my kids go through an agonizing hell on earth in two years or ten or forty?

    As far as your perceptions of his ego and hubris, weren’t you the one who, in one of these discussions on this website several months ago, tried to make the case that we all ought to just let go of the anger and hatred and wrongs we see committed around us and accept all? (Forgive my lack of detailed references. Too lazy to search and too old to remember!) I did not agree with you but thought you made a very earnest, well-thought out effort in any case.

    So what has changed in your life from then to now to cause such a drastic change in your outlook? What possible difference does it make, in the context of NTE, to point out Guy McPherson’s flaws, at least as you see them? Why not, as tvt points out, glean that which you value on this website and disregard the rest? What’s your point and why is it such an issue with you?

  • .

    This is silly. if people can’t differentiate between the aggregate evidence Guy has amassed (which is excellent and points to a clear and not so distant outcome all on its own), and then some speculations that he’s chosen to make based on that evidence, then they get the Darwin award of the day. Obviously his speculations about dates were just speculations. Guy isn’t flawed here, it’s the people who don’t understand when a person is speculating that is the problem here. Sorry, but this is stupid. It’s obvious his timelines were just subjective predictions. It’s his gathering of the disparate data to date that’s of importance here, not his speculations based on that data. Can’t people tell the difference between these two concepts?

    Since most scientists will stay strictly within their chosen field of expertise, it’s Guy’s collecting together of everything from nuke pools to capitalism and growth to population to biosphere decline … all of it together forming a big bleak picture … that’s been Guy’s profound message here, not some date or dates he speculated about. I can’t believe this conversation even happened. If you couldn’t tell the difference between evidence and speculations drawn from that evidence, then that isn’t Guy’s imperfection, that’s been your imperfection. Nobody can predict the future, everyone here should know that and be able to take that into account. However, Guy’s collecting of all the separate evidence as it has unfolded to date has been excellent, and that’s the message I’ve been watching since I found him, not his obviously speculative dates.

    I think the whole point was …

    ‘far quicker and much more serious than Exxon Mobil is telling you.’

    … not …

    ‘next Friday at 4:20 PM EST.’

    I speculate that people have listened to Guy and heard different messages subjectively. To me, I saw those dates and, knowing they were impossible to know for certain, interpreted them to mean … at this trajectory, sooner than you might be comfortable with. I still think that’s true, despite some erroneous speculations about exactly when. In the past people have said this won’t be a problem for a thousand years, and that left them doing nothing and ignoring the problem with impunity. Guy has done a good thing by bumping up that ridiculous timeline, despite his being off on providing exact dates which can only be derived through speculation anyway. To me his message simply read … sooner than people want to think it will happen. I still agree with that message.

  • Daniel, sorry about whatever is bugging you, but if you don’t like Guy’s pies or whatever Guy is cooking, maybe you should just consider staying the f out of his kitchen.

  • Ed

    ‘terraformed’ is not a good word to use:

    ‘Terraforming (literally, “Earth-shaping”) of a planet, moon, or other body is the hypothetical process of deliberately modifying its atmosphere, temperature, surface topography or ecology to be similar to the environment of Earth to make it habitable by Earth-like life.’

    You could say the Earth is being de-terraformed……made less Earth-like.

    Also, ecology is not the best word to use in that sentence:

    ‘Ecology (from Greek: οἶκος, “house”, or “environment”; -λογία, “study of”[A]) is the scientific analysis and study of interactions among organisms and their environment. It is an interdisciplinary field that includes biology, geography and Earth science. Ecology includes the study of interactions organisms have with each other, other organisms, and with abiotic components of their environment.’

    Although most life forms can withstand relative high local concentrations, carbon dioxide is nevertheless the planet killer.

  • Lets ask this guy how is making his money and how he manages his affairs ?

  • John,

    Anger is a terribly subjective concept, so is disappointment. I am not angry. I am however very sad and I am disappointed with Guy, but not angry. My writing style might be critical but it’s not coming from any place other than the same pool of general dissatisfaction from which most everything in my life springs these days. I can respond to your questions is they are framed closer to my actual perspective, but I can’t honestly respond to questions that I don’t believe apply.

    But I will have to disagree as to you thinking me half-hearted in the amount of BS each of us might find in the mirror. You see, a major shift in my thinking has occurred, which is my slow revelation that the entire human race is nothing more than inculcated liars. Every single one of us, no exceptions, we all bear the lies of the generations who brought us into the world and we do nothing but perpetuate the lies we learned. IMO, the only “truth” that exists outside the physical natural world, is the truth we believe in. And boy do we love to believe. The patterns of belief are fairly easy to identify, and Guy using Light’s date of 2031 for NTE is far closer to belief than science, which is why he will most likely be no more correct in predicting NTE as he was in predicting the fallout of peak oil.

    What I think many people are missing, is that I’m not singling out Guy’s bullshit any more than our own, it’s just he is very much singling himself out.

    Now, if you think that someone who is flying around the world telling people that they are all going to be dead in fifteen years is for some reason not a valid target for criticism, then I suppose we’re going to have to disagree. I’m rather shocked that the level of criticism Guy has receive hasn’t been far greater, especially given his track record of failed predictions.

    In fact, couldn’t we make a really good argument that probably every aspect of Guy’s life should be thoroughly combed through if he is going to take it upon himself to assume such an incredible degree of authority?

    We are a tribal species, so I get why so many people feel the need to rally around their chief, we do it in almost every aspect of our lives. We protect our own, we defend them against perceived attack; I’ve done more than my share in defending Guy in this space over the last many years myself. But as with all things, we change, circumstances change, evidence changes, god knows Guy has changed his opinion so many times it’s hard to know who you’re getting, but no one is immune to criticism, especially Guy.

  • Dear Sir,
    You exhibit mindfulness, discernment, acceptance and compassion. By doing so your openness and honesty will be stepped on. This is not painful. It proves you are a path. It gets old to be sure but as you wrote it brought wisdom and enlightenment. With regards to trolls, I’m amazed you have a forum/comment section. Personally I shut all that down long ago.

    For those of you that have computer issues. Look into Linux Mint Mate, it’s free and open source, also Tor is a wonderful thing as well.

  • Infanttyrone – Mucho Gracias “i” made yet another mistake. Guess it would not be I if I somehow did not always manage to leave out a word or two. I really like NEMESIS on KuKu, where I am a student of seeing his POV. Mix in German & Spanish and my admiration gets lost in translation.

    What a difference an I makes. One keystroke. One data point. One more mistake and Guy’s predicted dates might just come from another guy pushing the wrong darn button.

    Woodwose & LWA beautifully said above. I know for sure I could not say it better. Guy is so cool cause he mixes the evidence with so many other teaching techniques. Poetry, music, humor, PURA VIDA till we die. LOL

  • Rather than dropping specific dates as Daniel suggests, I suggest dropping the use of the phrase NTE unless it is accompanied by specific dates or date range. Don’t use a phrase that you refuse to define. That’s dishonest and not part of a life of excellence. Guy says we will go extinct between “any day now” and 2030. That’s honest and excellent.

  • For all readers that don’t actually understand scientific reports I will lay it out in the most simplistic way as I would explain software to an end user without getting into the millions of lines of source-code.

    You take a piece of styrofoam and a bucket of water and place the foam in the center. Now you take a glass of water and you pour it slowly on the foam. You will see something. Repeat the experiment but now pour faster.

    So that is basically the Big problem. Why? Volcanoes.

  • Since you’re so rich Guy, could you lend me twenty bucks?

    Anyone is welcome to post any of my links in the collapse sub-reddit so that even stupid young white men can read something about the truth besides money. Happy St. Pat’s!

    How To Lose Friends And Interrupt People
    http://lokisrevengeblog.wordpress.com/2016/03/17/how-to-lose-friends-and-interrupt-people/

  • that’s the trouble with people…they just talk and talk and talk…and before you know it, the words have no meaning. happy birthday to me.

  • Coming to a country where you live

    Venezuela to Shut Down for a Week to Cope With Electricity Crisis

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-16/venezuela-to-shut-down-for-a-week-as-electricity-crisis-mounts

    [quote]

    The government has rationed electricity and water supplies across the country for months and urged citizens to avoid waste as Venezuela endures a prolonged drought that has slashed output at hydroelectric dams. The ruling socialists have blamed the shortage on the El Nino weather phenomena and “sabotage” by their political foes, while critics cite a lack of maintenance and poor planning.

  • NTHE is a left hemisphere brain construct. The left hemisphere (LH) is an engineer and a scientist who plans forward, adds bits of information together, thinks this way: 0.85 C above baseline + 1.3 C from methane + 1.4 from loss of the sulphate umbrella = NTHE in the future. The RH disagrees.

  • The whole “it’s not polite to discuss money” thing is a canard designed to mask the ramping up of inequality, the ultimate and inevitable end game of capitalism.

    I believe we should talk about it all the time and make conspicuous consumption and massive wealth accumulation a cultural no no, call it out for the ugliness that it is.

    Bottom line if you have the money you WILL use it for all those things that destroy the planet.

  • Ray: are you off your meds again? The reality of NTHE is occurring no matter what we “believe”, “construct” or ideate. We’re witnesses to our own inability to live within our limits. Even if you were in a coma, it would continue along because civilization keeps dumping pollution of all kinds into its habitat. [What could go wrong?]

    Have a great day.

  • Your Phone Was Made By Slaves: A Primer on the Secret Economy
    On the new triangle trade, and the surprising connection between modern slavery and ecological disaster.

    http://blog.longreads.com/2016/03/08/your-phone-was-made-by-slaves-a-primer-on-the-secret-economy/

  • I am not off my meds again. I have escaped from the mental asylum again. They won’t catch me this time because I am now invisible. And I know that NTHE is a construct of the left brain hemisphere and a hallucination.

    If we try to maintain the Einstein ideal that there is such a thing as observable objective reality around us, then we get into lots of logical troubles with quantum mechanics. Physicists have spent 90 years trying very hard to find a way out of those troubles but they haven’t found it.

    “Even if you were in a coma, it would continue along” – No it wouldn’t because I would be in a coma. Does it continue right now for Napoleon or Charlemagne or King Tut? No, it continues only for those who observe it and worry about it, because it is a construct of the left brain hemisphere and a hallucination.

  • Wow, a lot of emotions and anger in this thread…

    I’m mostly a lurker here at NBL and almost never post anything myself, but now I just want to say that I would truly be sorry if Daniel stopped posting here. I often find his posts the most well-written and thoughtful ones.

    It’s truly silly and stupid to say that he should stay the f-ck away from this site simply because he doesn’t agree with everything Guy sais. Why would you have to do that!? I appreciate the work Guy has done putting together his monster climate-change essay. But does that mean I have to accept and come to exactly the same conclutions as he does?! No. Does it mean I have to see him as a perfect saint not having any shortcomings at all?! No.

    Geeh think for your selves and be your own authority. We’ve tried the ‘putting other people on a pedestal’ thing for a couple of thousand years. Guess what – it didn’t work.

  • Thanks again for thoughtful remarks, Guy!

  • way to simple batman…back to the bat-board.

  • jef with one f…have you heard that pixies song? awesome.

  • maybe king tut is watching… and is worried about his legacy.

  • Speaking of Methane- I searched “methane bubbles” on youtube, found a fresh video taken by the “nautilus” unmanned submersible-shows a cinderblock sized chunk of methane hydrate actually jump off of the ocean floor and float up. The narrator correctly identified it and I just thought the crew here along with GM would like know of its existence. Peace from Maryland

  • Batman ~

    yes, QM is what you get when observing this particular group dream at a fundamental material level. that doesn’t make the group dream itself any less of a real material experience for the beings within the dream. (and knowing about QM doesn’t change the facts of CO2 in the atmosphere, either.)

    all beings materially existing within this dream will experience the dream as material reality, with the laws of our physical universe. that’s kind of the idea for being here. for most humans, this experience currently means the almost totally impenetrable wall of amnesia is in place to prevent us from experiencing our true natures as beings of pure consciousness.

    whatever you think your left brain hemisphere is, it will in fact starve to death if you happen to stop taking in your dream material reality nutrients.

    once the idea of how this dream material reality stuff works starts to get so deeply internalized that it connects again to the pure consciousness that is constantly creating the dream, it may be possible to work with, and exist in, and experience, the group dream in other ways rather than SOP.