A Frightening Year May be in Store

Please scroll to the bottom for important information. Also, McPherson’s gmail account was hacked this morning. Please do not open email regarding Dropbox. Password has been changed. Please do not send any more alerts.

A Frightening Year May be in Store

by J. Z. Colby

NEBADOR Book Ten is almost out the door, with a novella by me and three new short stories by insightful and talented young adults.  With that nearly done, I plan to pay more attention to, and write more about, the present.  According to most data sources, we are now 12 months into a series of monthly global temperature records.  The data sources that don’t quite agree are only slightly different, such as one or two of those months being the second hottest on record.

The 2015 El Niño is reported to be fading, but that may not be all that made 2015 the hottest year on record.  As each new month that passes sets a new temperature record for that month, I begin to suspect that the El Niño was the least of our worries.

On 16 May 2016 I posted the following change to my Future Timeline:

PERMAFROST THAW AND BOREAL BURN was moved from the 2021-2025 group to the current year, retaining the question mark for now, as it looks like the current temperature spike is continuing, and will NOT fade with the current El Niño. Like the CORAL COLLAPSE item, this will probably follow from an ice-free Arctic, and if it comes to pass, could cause the METHANE SPIKE to occur sooner than it otherwise would have. Last year’s boreal forest fires in Russia, and this year’s in Canada, may be just a small taste of what is to come in our vast northern forests and tundra.

So that leaves the current year looking like this on my Timeline:

ANTHROPOCENE: The naming of a new geological epoch (defined by human influence) is in the process of formal acceptance, as it has now been confirmed to be stratigraphically distinct in rock and ice layers. Its beginning point will most likely be considered the middle of the 20th century, as radioactive fallout is one of its distinct stratigraphic markers, along with aluminum and plastics.

ARCTIC SUMMERS ICE-FREE: The Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free in the summer, greatly increasing the amount of solar heat absorbed, marking the beginning of run-away global heating.

FINANCIAL COLLAPSE: Stock markets and other financial venues become unstable or crash completely, causing credit to be unavailable to most people and businesses.

CORAL COLLAPSE: With the oceans rapidly heating and acidifying, the death of the coral reefs causes many coastlines to suddenly become vulnerable to fierce storms and floods.

PERMAFROST THAW AND BOREAL BURN: The tundra around the Arctic thaws, and the boreal forests of Canada and Russia burn, creating massive new sources of soot, Carbon dioxide, and Methane.

As you can probably guess, my take on the timing of future events is very similar to Dr. McPherson’s.  And if things are going to get as serious in the 2030s as he and I believe, then we shouldn’t be surprised if they start getting ugly very soon.

And also as a psychologist and therapist, I join Guy and Carolyn Baker in encouraging people to use this situation to bring out the best in us, do whatever we do as well as we can, and never forget to honor/love/respect any person, indeed any creature, who is brought to us by the mysterious forces of the universe.  I will be taking on the training, this year, of one or two new young adults (and in some ways their parents and siblings) who want to face the coming years “standing on their own two feet.”

My complete Future Timeline can be seen at http://www.nebador.com/Future.html

***
 

Greetings community! My name is Todd LeVasseur and I am beginning a survey-based research project that investigates environmental values and behaviors. Given the robust discussions and sophisticated views about the natural world contained in this community that Guy has helped create, I would very much appreciate your participation in the survey. Participation is voluntary and anonymous, but your views would add a needed element to the data set. Many thanks for your consideration. Survey is linked here.

In solidarity,
Todd

***

McPherson was interviewed a couple of months ago by Derrick Jensen for Resistance Radio. The episode will air this Sunday, 29 May 2016 at 6:00 p.m. Eastern on PRN.fm and will be archived shortly thereafter.

Thanks to Crawford’s Attractions for initiating a fund-raising campaign in support of speaking tours. It’s here. We’re also seeking volunteers to support my speaking tours this year. Details are provided beneath the “Coming Events” tab atop the page. If you are able to help, please send a message to booking@crawfordsattractions.com
______

Catch Nature Bats Last on the radio with Mike Sliwa and Guy McPherson. To listen live, tune in every Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. Eastern time, or catch up in the archives here. If you prefer the iTunes version, including the option to subscribe, you can click here. We’re on Stitcher, too.

As always, the schedule of topics for forthcoming episodes of the radio show is posted beneath the tab at the top of the page titled, “Radio Archive and Recent Video.” Please help us out, especially with episodes that focus on criticism of climate scientists and activists by sending your contributions to Mike at mikeyjonsliwa@gmail.com. The next of these shows is scheduled for 7 June 2016. We will be joined by independent journalist Cory Morningstar.

McPherson’s latest book is available in audio, and can be purchased here. Ms. Ladybug and Mr. Honeybee: A Love Story at the End of Time is intended for ages 11 and up.

From Kevin Hester comes this message: Professor Guy McPherson will be touring New Zesland in November 2016 talking about Runaway Abrupt Climate Change. Regular updates are provided at KevinHester.Live and Facebook events will be created as the date draws near.

Comments 122

  • More and more I feel like a rubber-necker at a train wreck.
    Wonder if Pat was on board?

  • cops are like hounds, and Black people are treated like rabbits, and when a rabbit runs away from the hounds they will chase it down and tear it apart.

  • I believe that there is no doubt that we have entered a time of runaway abrupt climate change and I am hopeful but not confident that industrial civilisation will be still intact for when I have the honour of hosting Guy again in NZ in November, as the essay notes near the summary.
    Everything Guy has said would happen has sadly transpired.
    If the West Antarctic ice shelf collapses or we have a mega burp of Methane or an extraordinary storm the like of which Dr. James E. Hansen has been predicting and the infant of which struck my nighbours in Fiji with 220 MPH winds in the first Cat 5 cyclone to ever hit Fiji I believe Industrial Civilisation could unravel in weeks with a total loss of faith in the biosphere remaining habitable for long.
    Habitat wars not withstanding we are facing a dystopian immediate future.
    These are the Good Old Days.
    http://kevinhester.live/…/16/early-stage-runaway-warming/

  • Yes, everyone and everybody that is associated with guy in the most minor of ways is now part of the nsa database. They are putting a profile together of each one of you in order to determine which individuals are the most threatening to the corporate state so that in the near future they can arrest and incarcerate each accordingly. I can most assuredly say that ALL of you will end up in prison. The election of trump will only accelerate the process.

  • What we are experiencing at nbl is horizontal hostility. I am very guilty of that. Since it seems that confronting immense corporate power is so unthinkable we take out our frustrations on each other. The NSA is laughing at us. But I assure there are WAYS to realistically oppose empire if any of you would do a little research. Or little ways. Every time I kill an invasive species all other myriad species associated with that destroyed arid ecosystem almost immediately benefit. When someone saves this little bit forest or desert etcetera we all benefit. Or we could shut down the whole system overnight with civil disobedience like france has just done. There are exactly zero posts on that realistic action. Pleaes fucking please someone explain why fucking why there are no musings on france here at do nothing NBL!!!!!

  • Mr, J. Z. Colby: Your so bad/good you’re good/bad! Thank you. 😕

  • This did not take the first time, but, “When Gabriel Blows That Golden Horn” (notice it is pure gold)”I’m Ready To Go.” The good news is I’m Gabriel so i get to blow it at any time. yeeeeehaaaahhh!

  • Notice also at the 1:45 mark, one of the most beautiful voices AND faces in this wonderful world.

  • @stevetroll

    not a mention of carbon/methane
    be mad, I get that

  • at Keven Haster: “I believe that there is no doubt that we have entered a time of runaway abrupt climate change…” I agree, It shan’t be long before everyone realizes this. It’s appropriate that we’re the ones who will face the horror of extinction (rather than our would be descendants a hundred year hence). We created this mess and have done nowt to stop it, despite knowing for decades that adding CO2 to the atmosphere would heat the planet and destroy the oceans.

    To bring a child into the world now is a form of child abuse.

  • Sometimes horrible thoughts come into my mind, such as that atmospheric CO2 is now about 100 ppm higher than when I was born and is rising at 3 or 4 times the rate it was then.

    Daily CO2

    May 26, 2016: 407.84 ppm

    May 26, 2015: 403.01 ppm

    Up 4.83 ppm date-to-date.

    ………………………………………………

    The latest value: 10,652,073 km2(May 26, 2016)

    http://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html

    Planetary meltdown in one lifespan.

  • Todd LeVasseur is a Zen master. If you all haven’t taken the survey yet that’s linked above in the bolded “important message” section, YOU MUST DO IT RIGHT NOW. I’m not even kidding. It will change your life.

    Many thanks, Todd. Many thanks.

  • Seriously, not only am I going to take that survey every day for the rest of my life, I am going to pass it along to everyone I know. Although, Todd, please tell me if that will skew your results and I won’t do it. I do want to maintain the scientificity of your methodology.

  • @ cuntagious

    I agree that people having children today,who are educated and informed, at how quickly, the dire nature of our predicament has progressed in the last few years, should clearly refrain from having children.

    But the reality is… people out there are not informed or educated, and they are having kids! unaware of the consequences. Most people are just living linear.. they do not see the big picture most dont follow climate change, theý follow the football or the next election. They are not here at N.B.L.They do not have the information!

    People who are uniformed and having kids are NOT child abusers, to make such a comment is obscene and not helpful.
    It is what is is.. and parents need to be supported not shamed.Regardless

    I had my kids 8-9 years ago and was in that place, believing we had hope and time on our hands. Today I can’t change that, it is what it is, mine and any other child out there today need our support and love more than ever through this dire predicament.

    I have spoken to Kevin Hester and he is a strong supporter of getting the message out to young adults, so they can make informed decisions, not just to us converted cronies. I support Kevin and his work, and will be the first to book a flight to be at his N.Z tour for Guy.
    However as Kevin and others state the future is very uncertain, so Just for today, i will do my best to get the message out there, and be there for the kids.

    I look follow Todds work on young Adults and how to bridge the gap and communicate climate change to them (when he speaks of young Adults he means 10 years old and up)

  • stevetroll Says: Or we could shut down the whole system overnight with civil disobedience like france has just done. There are exactly zero posts on that realistic action. Please fucking please someone explain why fucking why there are no musings on france here at do nothing NBL!!!!!

    “If you care about the living planet, take steps to terminate industrial civilization.” -Guy McPherson Fri, May 23, 2014

    Stevetroll, I already suggested such steps, and even giant leaps, but got no response. I guess we don’t care about the living planet afterall. Maybe if Guy would start wearing a t-shirt publically and to all his events saying: “Shut Off the Water–Now! Terminate Civilization!” and encourage others to do so, we might get a movement going. Without public utility provided water most of us are dead in three days–that would certainly end most industrial activity. It’s perplexing, a twit like me shouldn’t have to explain the obvious to a scientist.


  • ” Shut Off the Water–Now!”

    Sounds cool, yep, sounds even radical^^… but don’t forget to pull the plug of all rivers, lakes, creeks ect ect, otherwise too many funny human beings would survive 😎

    Btw:

    If you want to see all humans die, why don’t you just go ahead as a good, heroic example? I mean, it would be a start at least…

    http://tinyurl.com/hy5mp4p

    @stevetroll

    I like your nickname!


  • @Anybody who want to see all human beings croak

    Why don’t you ask for a fuckin job at ExxonMobil et al? These psychosuckerz got the same murderer-plan you have!

    Yoh, instead of wasting my time at psychopaths any longer today, I will grab my geetar and join a rockin session.

    Btw: If you can’t show some creativity, love, passion, Art from time to time and just yell “Extinction, extinction, extinction!” like an unimaginative crank, sorry, then you simply wasted your Life 😎


  • Stolen Moments

  • Guy, I have a question: You’ve stated many times that while man is clever enough to survive a reasonable increase in temperatures, the biosphere is not. That we all need to eat and the earth is warming too fast for nature to respond and large sections of the earth may become an arid desert. However, NASA has said recently that the earth is actually getting greener as forests and plants have more carbon (thanks to us) and are actually thriving better now. And we know that there have been other times in the past, for instance during the dinosaur period, when the earth was much hotter, there was more carbon in the air and forests were much larger and healthier than they are today.

    So why are we worried that the earth is going to become a desert?

  • Henry Holt,
    Thanks for that comment. It’s true that many people just are not aware at all. I asked a very early 20 something how much he knew about climate change, the other day. He was in college for graphic arts. So, he said, not very much. I began to explain. He looked like a deer in head lights.
    I gave him some things to look up.

  • So for the sake of discussion lets just say that in the next year or few the arctic becomes ice free, warms up significantly, and methane release measurements increase exponentially. This happens and is widely reported in the world news burying denial, at least for the vast majority of the world, once and for all.

    What happens next?

    IMHO that is the event that changes everything. Obviously people will react in many different ways, most of which will not be positive. Sure there will be lots of technocopians who will have us all “working even harder, consuming even more in order to build a sustainable future”, but there will also be one hell of a lot of doomer action ramping up also. On top of all that governments around the world will crack down even harder, martial law, military rule and worse.

    Right now everyone believes all our problems are economical and political all of which can be fixed with a few tweaks here and there then we are back on track for exponential growth and prosperity. Once it becomes obvious that is no longer the case it is OVER! Things will get really ugly after that.

    Personally I believe that most of humanity will want to come together as one and do what is needed but this instinct will rapidly be co-opted and turned into finger pointing and blame. The particulars don’t really matter as I believe that it will quickly become a free for all.

    I am certain that this “event” is inevitable and coming soon to a theatre near you.

  • Fuck the NSA, DHS, CIA, FBI, MIC, MSM, FDA, DEA, EPA, DofAg, Executive, Legislative, Judicial and SSP!

  • @hubbard I like a person that lays out the brutal nature of reality in harsh terms. Let me see…,”Wealthy whitey” will soon privitize “not so wealthy whitey” municipal water and then we all know what happens because we have already seen how the municipal water(niger delta) of “almost no wealth brownie” and zero wealth non-human municipal water(oceans) has been poisoned for (wealthy whitey) to have more creepy plastic crap.. I missed your solutions hubbard,sorry. @nemesis,nemesis to what….. the corporate state? Oh no that couldn’t be it. It must be nemesis to all who would oppose the state at great personal risk….,like chris hedges derrick jensen guy mcpherson lierre kieth john brown,henry thoreau martin luther king,malcom x,black panthers,harriet tubman. just go ahead and put on your corporate brown shirt and bootlick “wealthy whitey”

  • I guess “not so wealthy whitey” is finally in the same fearsome position that half of the world’s brown human population and all the world’s non human population has been in since wealthy whitey learned to grow grains. Oh and “not so wealthy whitey” is paralyzed in fear and in need of grief counseling because me white fucking me me is so upset that now the system that suckled him is now coming for him and if those derrick jensen’s would just shut up we could do nothing but love ourselves for a little while longer and make sure “wealthy whitey” suffers no consequences…..EVER

  • .
    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    Fuck
    fUck
    fuCk
    fucK

    It
    iT

  • @Henry Holt “…But the reality is… people out there are not informed or educated, and they are having kids! unaware of the consequences. Most people are just living linear.. they do not see the big picture most dont follow climate change, theý follow the football or the next election. They are not here at N.B.L.They do not have the information!

    “People who are uniformed and having kids are NOT child abusers, to make such a comment is obscene and not helpful…”

    Fair point. It underscores why spreading the message of NTHE is so important.

    @Jef.
    Your prognostication is spot on. It pretty much matches my view.

  • “Drill Baby Drill”… or “Some Like It Hot!”

    http://phys.org/news/2016-05-fossil-fuels-earth.html

  • Professor McPherson, the other day you mentioned there have been 16 extinction periods in earths history. Professor Peter Ward said 14 in a lecture on youtube. Did Peter Ward miss 2 or is there a difference of opinion in the scientific community? Also do you know of a resource that covers all the extinctions? I have found a number that cover the 5 mass extinctions, but nothing like a one stop shopping for all the extinctions.

    Thanks

  • Shallel, you forgot The Ontario Provincial Police – O.P.P.

  • Guy, this liberal neo liberal is taking a shot at you. Just bumping you hip (forgive my 3rd post)

    COUNTDOWN TO EXTINCTION
    How I quite worrying and learned to love the apocalypse
    BY MICHAEL LIND

    http://thesmartset.com/countdown-to-extinction/

  • Steven Earl Salmony, I had forgotten about Charles Eisenstein, the self-described “degrowth activist.” And I certainly chuckled over the title “By Their Fruits Ye Shall Know Them” since he fathered 4 children decades after overpopulation and exponential growth had become topics at the forefront of ecological thinking.

    Shall we say “By Their Egos Ye Shall Know Them”?

  • Phil, Steven Earl Salmony, I have been following Eisenstein on and off since reading his book “Ascent of Humanity” in 2012. As is generally the case with public speakers and writers that tend to speak to “change agents” and activists inclined toward new age thought, Eisenstein’s message has been arguably optimistic on the possibility of cultural and societal transformation all these years. I was often left wondering how he mentions climate change but skirts around the urgency of it. It’s not as if he hasn’t mentioned the possibility of extinction, but his prescriptions for change followed the usual well-worn paths typical of new age ideologies with little weight on the seriousness of the situation we find ourselves in. So I was pleasantly surprised to see him talk about the major cognitive dissonance he’s going through following recent reports and data. Finally! It seems to be sinking in.

    But then again, I am always skeptical of public personalities… one can never tell what they really think, only what they present to their readers and audience. Part of it has to do with giving only that which will be received. There are some who make no bones about what they have to say, and you can tell that from the way they say it. That style often doesn’t appeal to some audiences. Anger and outrage don’t sit well with them. They are negative emotions. Eight out of the twenty five or so people who came to see Guy speak at one of his recent events in California got up and left midway, some of them upset over what he was telling them, angrily voicing their opinion of how they don’t like all the gloom and doom, etc. as they walked out.

    So it’s interesting to see how Eisenstein and other speakers have been navigating this territory where certain facts become increasingly more obvious and denying them or giving them short shrift will only take one so far. It’s walking the fine line between retaining follower-ship and losing credibility.

    ====

    Pavement-melting temperatures in India – http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/welcome-to-india-a-country-gripped-by-51c-heatwave/news-story/04d0ded07b8f6303280efc75a8163103

  • Excellent point, Satish, one can never know whether the likes of Eisenstein are really taking in the full seriousness or merely are adjusting their pitch to fit the no longer deniable reality.

  • Daily CO2

    May 27, 2016: 407.99 ppm

    May 27, 2015: 403.33 ppm

    Up 4.66 ppm (versus 2.11 ppm per annum over 2005 to 2014 and 0.7 ppm per annum when measuring began).

  • Satish Musunuru Says: May 28th, 2016 at 1:35 pm:“There are some who make no bones about what they have to say, and you can tell that from the way they say it. That style often doesn’t appeal to some audiences. Anger and outrage don’t sit well with them. They are negative emotions. Eight out of the twenty five or so people who came to see Guy speak at one of his recent events in California got up and left midway, some of them upset over what he was telling them, angrily voicing their opinion of how they don’t like all the gloom and doom, etc. as they walked out”

    Interesting, because Guy’s style is about as unthreatening as it is possible to be, his voice is never choked with anger or outrage. So these people attended a talk by someone who key and openly stated message is near-term-extinction and encouraging action to end civilization as fast as possible, but then they got angry at the doom and gloom? (I’m laughing at the stupidity of that as I type).

    It’s funny because I see the same behavior among people who haunt this blog and who don’t seem to know that it is a near-term-extinction / end-civilization-now blog. They don’t seem to know that the only stated public action encouraged by the blog sponsor is to try to end civilization and soon as possible. They also seem to lack the reasoning ability of an eight year-old and cannot figure out what terminate civilization means, what are the fastest ways to do it, and what the results would look like.

    The explanation is anyone’s guess: decline of reading ability, too many bong hits, an over medicated population, who knows? –because the clarity and persistence of the message is there in both written and verbal form:

    “If you care about the living planet, take steps to terminate industrial civilization.” -Guy McPherson Fri, May 23, 2014

    “I work toward collapse. I work on behalf of non-human species. Industrial civilization is destroying every aspect of the living planet, and I know virtually nobody who wants to stop the runaway train. Yes, collapse will kill us. But our deaths are guaranteed regardless.” —
    Guy McPherson Sat, Mar 19, 2016

    “Let’s make this about them(other species), and what that means is–terminating civilization.”17 May 2016 @34:00 part 1

    “It’s quite apparent that collapse of civilization in the only approach which will give ours and perhaps other species a longer run…so I’m a big fan of taking action to terminate civilization.” 17 May 2016 @10:00 part 2

  • “terminating civilization” sounds so immediate. But I assume it includes decommissioning all nuclear power plants, which takes 50-60 years. And then, what about “nuclear waste”, which is still a mystery to me…except that it will be lethal for thousands of years.
    So would ending civilization preserve habitat for certain species that could survive in a nuclear climate? Guy said “There’s a species that lives in the sarcophacus (whatever that is) at Chernobyl.

  • Perhaps it would help if people had an accurate description of the world they inhabit. The passage below was a life changing experience for me, due to its obvious ominous implications. All alternative thought (which is what ecological thinking is) is “eventually eliminated” –put to death, just as the endless accumulation demands of capitalism eventually puts the planet to death. This is the very definition of a totalitarian system. Immanuel Wallerstein explains it, perhaps as as well and as succinctly as anyone ever has, on p24 of his World-systems Analysis: An Introduction:

    “We are in a capitalist system only when the system gives priority to the *endless* accumulation of capital. Using such a definition, only the modern world-system has been a capitalist system. Endless accumulation is a quite simple concept: it means that people and firms are accumulating capital in order to accumulate still more capital, a process that is continual and endless. If we say that a system ‘gives priority’ to such endless accumulation, it means that there exist structural mechanisms by which those who act with other motivations are penalized in some way, and are eventually eliminated from the social scene, whereas those who act with the appropriate motivations are rewarded and, if successful, enriched.”

  • @hubbard, I suggest you read wordworth,thoreau,emerson,emilydickinson,sinclairlewis,williamfaulkner,aldoleopold,edwardabbey,daveforeman,derrickjensen,lierrekieth,wardchurchill,arundhatiroy,vinedeloria,marisandoz,stephaniemcmillan,terrytempestwilliams,lipo,hanshan,ryokan,montaigne,voltaire,diderot,shelly,keats,byron,plato,socrates,will and arieldurant complete 22volume history of western civilization,tolstoy,dostoevsky,kingsolver and an in depth analysis of chiricahua apache matrifocal culture and round that all out with a generous helping of lakota sioux,haidagwai, nez perce skokomish quinault along with hopi and acoma puebloen,navaho with leslie marmo silko and then maybe you will be able to comment on civilization in a competent manner.

  • Jeff S. Says:
    Excellent point, Satish, one can never know whether the likes of Eisenstein are really taking in the full seriousness or merely are adjusting their pitch to fit the no longer deniable reality.

    —-

    Jeff, I met Charles a few times, and have seen him speak, mostly in your neck of the woods actually… But there was usually something about his manner that left me with a sense of unease. He caters to a particular type of audience that is somewhat aware of what’s going on and has a deep need for positive messages of solace and comfort and flocks to listen to speakers and writers like Eisenstein who are good at making it less of a burden to carry. There’s nothing wrong with that on its face, but the methods used by such speakers are somewhat murky and disingenuous. They gloss over the facts that would make the audience uncomfortable. And members of this audience get uncomfortable more easily than the average person. That’s as much as I can say without using labels!

    ========

    Elroy Hubbard Says:
    Immanuel Wallerstein explains it, perhaps as as well and as succinctly as anyone ever has, on p24 of his World-systems Analysis: An Introduction

    —-

    That’s a great little book. Learned much from it.

    ========

    Paul said:
    Satish, the plain fact is that we don’t have clue one about why people who lived 20,000 years ago did what they did, or even much of a clue about what they, in fact, did. That’s an great situation though, because it gives us a nice clean tabula rasa on which to project all our fears and desires, no matter what they might be. Our imaginations have free rein. Warlike? Peace-loving? Instinct-driven machines? Ecologically conscious free agents? Whatever you want, you got it, with no one who can gainsay you with any more authority than the tone of their voice.

    —-

    We don’t “know” how they lived 20,000 years ago. Especially, if we go by the modern scientific, empirical interpretation of the process of “knowing” anything. As we know, modern epistemology is a joke. A complete clusterfuck.

    The best we can do is take the word of their descendants who continue to live more or less similarly where ever modern man hasn’t pulled off one of his exploits on them yet. The next best is to listen to those who have observed them directly or those who have studied the meticulously collected notes of such observers upon first contact as Malcolm Margolin has done.

    Excerpt from Page 162 of “The Ohlone Way” by Malcolm Margolin


    To make the Indians into gente de razón (people of reason), however, involved more than teaching them morality and religion: they had to learn the practical skills of European life as well. The women were set to work spinning and weaving cloth – although they had no use for clothing during the summer and during the winter their own rabbit-skin and otter-skin cloaks provided far more warmth than badly made mission cloth. The men were made to till the soil, even though plentiful game, fish, nuts, and seeds were all around them, free for the taking.

    Postscript by the author, page 169


    When I began researching this book, I had no real notion about what the Ohlones were like. I pictured them as a Stone-Age people with a simple, crude culture – a people who went naked, lived in huts, and survived by means of a few appropriate and skillful technologies such as processing acorns, weaving grasses into baskets, and chipping stones into arrowheads. As I came to discover, the Ohlones did indeed have many appropriate and highly skillful technologies. But they also had much more. As I learned more about their way of living, I became increasingly amazed at the tremendous complexity and subtlety of their culture and at the wisdom that seemed to permeate their entire way of life.

    This is not to say that I believe the Ohlones to have been ideal in every respect. There are many aspects of the Ohlones’ world that we moderns would find disagreeable. Yet on the whole they seem to have achieved a humane and merciful way of life, one which was capable of perpetuating itself for century after century without the people destroying each other or their natural environment. To have discovered such unexpected wisdom, beauty, and spiritual awareness among a Stone-Age people came as a total revelation. It produced in me a sense of victory to know that such a way of life is a part of the human potential, part of the human history.

    In studying the Ohlones I was further struck by the strange familiarity of certain aspects of their life. A balanced (rather than exploitative) relationship with the environmental; an economic system based on sharing rather than competing; a strong sense of family and community; social moderation and restraint; the opportunity for widespread artistic creativity; a way of governing that serves without oppressing; a deeply spiritual sense of the world: these are the very things many of us are currently striving to attain in our own culture. The irony is that while we look forward to a dimply-perceived future when such values might be realized, we have failed to understand that they existed in the not-so-distant past as the accomplishments not only of the Ohlones, but of Stone-Age people the world over.

    Yet on the whole they seem to have achieved a humane and merciful way of life, one which was capable of perpetuating itself for century after century without the people destroying each other or their natural environment.

    If we look at our own times, the two biggest threats we face are nuclear war and climate change (the possibility of the former undoubtedly influenced by the imminence and rapidity of the latter). How did a Stone-Age culture become capable of perpetuating itself for century after century without the people destroying each other or their natural environment while our culture stares at extinction by nuclear war or climate change?

  • How fast can I go stupid? Not fast enough it seems.

    We are losing 3 oxygen molecules in our atmosphere for each carbon dioxide molecule that is produced when we burn fossil fuels.

    Rapid planetary magnetic field depletion causes oxygen loss.

    Rapid biomass depletion causes oxygen loss. Think trees and plankton.

    Oxygen loss is exponential and directly proportional to carbon emissions.

    We are just below 21% oxygen, below 19% causes cognition loss.

    We will go stupid before we die off.

    Life cannot survive below 15% oxygen.

    Every day I drive far away to work to kill frogs and bees cutting grass.

    http://lokisrevengeblog.wordpress.com/2016/05/25/how-fast-can-i-go-stupid/

  • I think the reason Derrick Jensen is such a violence advocate is because he can’t get enough oxygen to his brain. Maybe he should watch more porn.

  • I think this angle on the story of the strength of an atomic bomb is a bit of a beat up there are things afoot downunder….

    ‘Western Australia earthquake has strength of ‘atomic bomb”

    Quake that shakes WA goldfields on Saturday and Sunday caused by tectonic plate stress.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/29/western-australia-earthquake-has-strength-of-atomic-bomb

    A quote:

    “An earthquake that shook Western Australia’s goldfields overnight had the strength of an “atomic bomb” blasting underground.

    Three earthquakes hit near Norseman, including a magnitude 5.2 tremor reportedly felt as far away as Perth.

    The first was a 4.9 magnitude quake about 6km under the surface hitting about 11.30pm local time, then the 5.2 was about an hour later and the last was a 3.2 magnitude tremor about 1.44am on Sunday.

    Geoscience Australia senior seismologist Dan Jaksa said it was the largest event in WA since the magnitude five earthquake in Kalgoorlie in April 2010, which left several buildings badly damaged.

    He said the quakes were caused by tectonic stress due to Australia’s continental plate moving about seven centimetres a year and the one that hit shortly after midnight was the equivalent to an atomic bomb going off.

    “When we see a nuclear test occur, they’re generally a magnitude five,” Jaksa said.”

    Yup, we had that tharr nuclear testing back in the day.

    ‘Deadly legacy still haunts Maralinga veterans’

    http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2013/s3695723.htm

    A quote:

    “Australian servicemen were involved in nuclear tests at Maralinga have faced serious and deadly health effects and now their children are too, leading to calls for recognition via the Human Rights Commission…..

    LEIGH SALES, PRESENTER: Nearly 300 Australian veterans from the British nuclear tests in Australia during the 1950s and ’60s are taking their case to the Human Rights Commission.

    Many surviving veterans have experienced health problems since their exposure to nuclear radiation during the tests.

    Last year the British Court of Appeal threw out a claim by UK veterans on the grounds that too much time had passed since the tests to prove a link to illnesses.

    Now the Australians affected are hoping that a claim based on simple human rights might pressure Parliament in broadening their access to free medical care.”

    I spoke to one of these men 3 years ago. He indicated he and his detail of men went into ground zero to retrieve all the clothing left by all the clean up crew, load it into trucks and transport it and unload it elsewhere. No protection was provided to them. He was the only one left of his crew, all whom had died of serious cancers and health complications.

    Yup, the empire really cares about you and the next 10 generations.

    🙁


  • The refugee crisis in Europe gets worse and worse and worse. While the european politics regarded to refugees gets more and more restrictive, more and ever more refugees DIE like animals in the mediterranean sea. Europe has exploited and raped Africa for hundreds of years and ongoing and now Europe just watches thousands and thousands of refugees dying. It is a SHAME to be a european citizen, Europe is a fuckin SHAME. More and african countries go down the drain and climate change makes the situation worse and worse. Northern Africa is drying out because of climate change, so we will see MILLIONS of refugees soon and if Europe does not change it’s restrictive politics, we will see millions of refugees dying like animals. Man, I swear:

    I hope, that Europe will learn what hunger and suffering means with her own flesh and bones soon, the sooner, the better.

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ominous-story-of-syria-climate-refugees/

    http://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/mittelmeer-fluechtlinge-127.html

    You can see the same SICK and INHUMANE catastrophe at the mexican/californian border and at the australian borders as well. Sooner or later Empire will just collapse because of it’s sheer ignorance and greed and I will love to see it going down to Hell.

  • elroy…a bong hit has never made me deny the truth. it exists to help me see it.


  • @Elroy Hubbard

    ” It’s funny because I see the same behavior among people who haunt this blog and who don’t seem to know that it is a near-term-extinction / end-civilization-now blog. They don’t seem to know that the only stated public action encouraged by the blog sponsor is to try to end civilization and soon as possible. They also seem to lack the reasoning ability of an eight year-old and cannot figure out what terminate civilization means, what are the fastest ways to do it, and what the results would look like.”

    But there is one thing even more funny:

    Some folks on NBL like you are yelling “Shut down civilization!” all the time, but they don’t even shut down their own computers, they don’t shut down electricity they depend on as long as they use computers to post on NBL ect ect ect. So, I am very sorry, but I can’t take that “Shut down civilization!” parole serious in any sense. As long as NBL exists, it is more than obvious that civilization isn’t shut down, simply because everyone who comments here on NBL still depends on civilization. It is exactly the same like saying “Don’t smoke!” while having a cigarette between the lips. That’s obviously just a silly JOKE 🙂

  • .
    A quick synopsis?

    – No hope.
    – Fuck it.
    – Shut it down.
    – Die.

    I think listen to music goes into that list somewhere too.

  • Mod Note:

    stevetroll, I have deleted your 2016/05/29 at 10:23 am comment because it contains personal attacks.

  • Hubbard, you sweet gentle soul, We really are drug addled morons. Please enlighten us with your brilliance like Lydia use to do. Your profound understanding of reality and political activism supercedes even Guy’s understanding of reality. And I know I know i am just a troll completely divorced from the facts that can never hope to do anything but level personal attacks just like the mass murdering Guy Mcpherson. Richard since in your infinite wisdom you realize you have deleted my second and third post this would be my second but I am confident you will delete it as well.

  • @stevetroll

    For some reason, I still read your posts — they’re just so bizarre and
    psychotic, but always a waste of my time.

    FWIW, I think richards (Richard?) should delete ’em all.

  • The ultra-high results just keep coming.

    Daily CO2

    May 28, 2016: 408.09 ppm

    May 28, 2015: 403.81 ppm

    Up 4.29ppm.

  • Satish Musunuru Says:
    May 29th, 2016 at 2:08 am

    (quotes me)
    —-

    “Jeff, I met Charles a few times, and have seen him speak, mostly in your neck of the woods actually… But there was usually something about his manner that left me with a sense of unease. He caters to a particular type of audience that is somewhat aware of what’s going on and has a deep need for positive messages of solace and comfort and flocks to listen to speakers and writers like Eisenstein who are good at making it less of a burden to carry. There’s nothing wrong with that on its face, but the methods used by such speakers are somewhat murky and disingenuous. They gloss over the facts that would make the audience uncomfortable. And members of this audience get uncomfortable more easily than the average person. That’s as much as I can say without using labels!”

    Exactly, Satish! That’s the kind of people “Bernie” appeals to as well. W whole bunch of people have basically stopped talking to me because i refuse to feel the Bern, because i call out his espousal of “social democracy,” which has been a fraud for a 100 years running, right now on display in France (where Hollande ran for president on a platform just like Bernie Man’s, but once in office has imposed severe austerity and police state measures to enforce it, with the country in a state of open war as i write) or Greece (saw thing, with the Syriza party), or Italy……..And i call out his promises of continued prosperity and economic growth without ecocide. People like these ones who’ve cut me off want to believe in this crap.

  • “The ultra-high results just keep coming.”

    Savor the times the best you can; soon enough these will be remembered as “the good old days”.

    Pursue a life of excellence! If you cacth it, don’t waste it…

  • Is the NTHE meme going mainstream?

    I happened to go to a local restaurant/bar yesterday, and tried a beer that was new to me: LIMBO IPA. The label is black, with a red tree and a white skeleton sitting under the tree in a dejected pose.

    The tap handle is shaped like a realistic bone, and the coaster says: “Whilst You Wait, Enjoy an IPA!”

  • Jeff, this is why I don’t believe that people behave rationally or even consciously. This morning I ran into a very ‘progressive’ state rep with whom I am somewhat friendly. She and another acquaintance were alarmed about Trump, and started saying how *wonderful* Obama was, how *hard* he has worked to eliminate nuclear weapons (!?!? this is news to me). I mentioned the not-closed-as-promised Guantanamo and the extra-judicial drone thing, and their faces twisted up like I had let out a huge fart. I didn’t get around to mentioning about the Vietnam arms-sales trip because they were talking over me about what a wonderful man he was, so “elegant” and hard-working and on the side of the people.

    I felt like I had been dropped into a parallel universe! Both on the right AND ON THE “LEFT”, people think that Obama is an extreme “progressive”!! I usually don’t get too deep into politics with folks, but this just stuns me, that no one at all is interested in watching what the guy *actually does*. They come up with excuses like a battered wife: “oh, well Congress wouldn’t let him close Guantanamo” or whatever nonsense that gives him a pass. They’ve been abused so long, they’re not even aware of what it looks like any more.

  • The Commander-in-Chief can order any service member out of any place at any time. During his first inauguration he could have orders printed up and ready for his signature on the podium ordering the handing over of all prisoners to the Cubans in 24 hours, and all prison staff out of Gitmo in 72 hours, and signed both sets as soon as the Supreme had bungled the oath. He could have had a third set of orders ordering all US troops out of Afghanistan and Iraq within the week. Insubordination to lawful orders is cause for court martial and dismissal or worse.

    Trump is against sending the US military to kill brown people in other countries, unlike the establishment of both parties and the elected leaders. My voter registration has shown my party affiliation as Libertarian, although I am an anarchist, but I had my affiliation to Republican when I realised that Trump is against wholesale military murdering of brown folks in their countries. I am brown myself, and an immigrant, but he does not plan on throwing out legal immigrants.

  • Robin says- “I am brown myself, and an immigrant, but he does not plan on throwing out legal immigrants.”

    Well isn’t that a relief. For YOU.

  • For LWA

    A quick synopsis?

    listen to music
    – No hope.
    listen to music
    – Fuck it.
    listen to music
    – Shut it down.
    listen to music
    – Die.
    listen to music – endlessly

    🙂

  • Milendia- great documentary, thank you!! I’ve read things about the sand issues around the world, but this was very thorough. I’m curious, though- do you know why the video is labeled “(climate change hoax)”?


  • You want Apocalypse?^^ Well, then come to Germany and have some doomer fun, muhahahaha:


  • We can’t go backwards and we can’t go forwards.
    Everything is tainted, raped, poisoned, broken, corrupted, and stinking of capitalism and industrial civilization
    We are hopeless. and I have no hope for us
    I feel like a failure most days
    Trapped, trapped and more trapped.
    Only in my heart can I be freed, see past all the delusion and denial
    Guy is right. Pursue what you love.it is all we have left


  • ” We can’t go backwards and we can’t go forwards.
    Everything is tainted, raped, poisoned, broken, corrupted, and stinking of capitalism and industrial civilization
    We are hopeless. and I have no hope for us.”

    To me, this is just ordinary life in the Ghetto, where I live. I don’t know any other life at all. I got used to it from early childhood on and I don’t even bother. So why all that bothering and why all that loud complaining and lamenting at NBL? I invite everybody to live some time in the Ghetto and learn, how most people on the planet live all their life. You know, you’d learn how to be thankfull for any fuckin food in your refrigerator, for any fuckin day without fuckin violence and crime, you’d learn how to live UPRIGHT without whining and comlaining day in day out like a childish half-adult 🙂

  • “To me, this is just ordinary life in the Ghetto, where I live. I don’t know any other life at all. I got used to it from early childhood on and I don’t even bother. So why all that bothering and why all that loud complaining and lamenting at NBL? I invite everybody to live some time in the Ghetto and learn, how most people on the planet live all their life. You know, you’d learn how to be thankfull for any fuckin food in your refrigerator, for any fuckin day without fuckin violence and crime, you’d learn how to live UPRIGHT without whining and comlaining day in day out like a childish half-adult” ?

    I lived on the streets,cardboard blankets and soup kitchens for 6 years sleeping with the alcoholics and down an outs.Most said i would not make it.
    I was freer then on the street,but moved up the ranks to the lower middle class and all its trappings.There is nothing ordinary and upright about were we are in our polluted world mentality.
    The ghetto is in really our minds and our actions.
    Happy to be a childish half adult
    Chill out and have another bong mate, and listen to the great phil woods play the best alto saxophone solo on Billy Joels gig

  • Here’s 2 old ivory tower farts talking to fucking nonsense because they can’t see beyond their snoots. Their conventional wisdom bullshit a step beyond the anger singularity. The music just heightens the farce.

    My fitful comment:

    2 old self important fart talk total bullshit.

    Electric grid power is 23% of total world energy demand.

    We need 10 times the amount of intermittent energy to displace fossil fuel sources.

    We need 10 times the electric grid power we use now to stop 23% of total emissions.

    Adding electric cars and populations will only increase material emissions throughput, meaning more extractive mass and water for less energy output.

    We will increase the larger 75% portion of energy demand to eliminate the lesser emission source.

    Asia ships solar panels to 75% of the planet, very likely leaving an environmental carbon footprint larger than the supposed emissions savings.

    Less energy from more extractive throughput.

    No Soil & Water Before 100% Renewable

    Energyhttp://lokisrevengeblog.wordpress.com/2016/01/24/no-soil-water-before-100-renwable-energy/

  • @Robert Callaghan
    The manner these two old douche are talking reminds me those tv evangelist when they sit at a table in a homey setting with their brethren`s talking about Jesus coming to redeem you if you believe in . These people have been doing these now forever fleecing the faithful . I guess these folks figured they can get on the action themselves after a little promotion they have only work out the kinks how to collect .. But maybe corporate (green) sponsorship will do it for them

  • Here is a presentation that covers many if not all the topics wrangled with by the Blessed NBL Doomers.

    Have you heard of the many millions of stone circles in South Africa?
    Not two old farts talking shit. Actual REAL WORLD EVIDENCE that is hard to write off as irrelevant. It’s all about the GOLD.

  • Forgot to mention that the Empire has tagged this presentation with numerous abusive ADs.

    I was laughing out loud over the Pre Aides Protection and then the new disclaimer that using a fresh needle on your diabetes syringe is no longer acceptable, now you need to throw away the whole plastic mess and keep buying new assemblies. Plop Plop Fizz Fizz O what a Lie it is.

    It is no measure of good health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society. Jiddu Krishnamurti

  • U.S. Broadcast news coverage of climate change – dwindling as climate change accelerates – graph


  • @Henry Holt

    I should have said, that my last comment wasn’t adressed to you. I never heard you complaining or yelling “Extinction! Extinction! Extinction! The sooner the better!” My post was adressed to those, who can’t await to croak, my post was adressed to those, who want extended suicide.

    ” There is nothing ordinary and upright about were we are in our polluted world mentality.”

    Man, I survived the Ghetto for more than 50 years now and I survived a lot of other shit and I never wanted to be integrated into the system and “make it” (whatever that means), I did always only what I wanted to do, never listened to any boss or any Empire suckers, never exploited other people and always stayed away from Empire conditioning and funny overconsumption. And I always respected Nature and the Laws of Nature- so:

    I AM living UPRIGHT all my life.

    ” Chill out and have another bong mate, and listen to the great phil woods play the best alto saxophone solo on Billy Joels gig”

    Yoh, that’s exactly what I will do now! Rock on, Sir Henry Rockin Holt!

  • @Nemesis

    How dare you to laugh at the death of one of my comrades, a voluntary firefighter , during these catastrophic rainfalls in Germany.
    You moan for the thousands who drown in the mediteranian sea right now but you find it somehow amusing that a man, who tried to save another human, died ?
    You asume that all of us in the west are somehow guilty and deserve what hardships may come our way ?
    As if history would have played out any other way if the africans or the asians would have had the technological edge in the 16th century.
    The asians had the technological edge, the mongols with their fast horses and superior shortbows.
    And what had they done with it ?
    They conquered and raped and pilleged.
    None of them tried to reason and gave the military inferior europeans a hand.
    And for Africa ?
    The moors invaded spain, the american-african slave trade would have been imposible without native tribes who caught the slaves in the first place, the Liberian Disaster !
    Don’t play this blame game, poor refugees, guilty western industrial civilisation.
    It’s always poor against rich, strong against weak, uneducated against informed.
    All the best

  • I want to toss in a couple proposed adjustments to the thinking I hear expressed about ice-free Arctic.

    It sounds like people are thinking about this event as a “hockey-stick” type triggering of a methane burst. To me, this sounds a little like our version of the “everything happens on January 1, 2100” denial thinking of the general scientific community. But my visualization of the process is that this marker in time does not necessarily constitute a one-time trigger.

    On the way to an ice-free September, there is much open ocean all around the remaining ice, just as exists every summer. And so, the ocean is heating all the time at differing rates throughout the year(and more rapidly threatening the remaining ice as well). A methane burst, to the extent it is triggered by water heating, could happen at any time — before or after a complete melting. And not necessarily at the location of the last bit of ice to be lost. In fact, probably not.

    As I understand it, the ESAS, where much of the methane exists, and much of it near shoreline, is already largely ice-free much of the year. (Please correct me if I have misunderstood the maps and diagrams.)

    And so, the release of methane, ongoing already, is going to accelerate from the loss of ice and the heating of the water. But the timing — the ascent of the curve of acceleration — is unknown to us, though it generally correlates with this discussion, even if more smoothed out over timing and location.

    Apart from this question, what I need to check further is Guy’s repeated example of water temperature rising precipitously after an ice melt. That one, if applicable, is truly scary. It is hard to imagine it zooming up so rapidly over such a large area, or necessarily starting on the day the last iceberg disappears. But again, this is a process of acceleration, and so what happens and when is possibly beyond our present ability to imagine.

    The Boreal Burn is physically almost a mirror image analog to the ice melt, but with the same result: methane release and carbon amplification. Water won’t burn, but tundra will. And not likely to freeze over again in time or in any way useful to our survival. Boy, talk about getting it from both ends!

    I’m just trying to avoid creating mythical beasts out of real and ongoing threats.

    Many people who don’t yet get NTHE still process most of what they hear with some degree of physical logic, and so if there are logical hiccups in what they are hearing, the may screen out the rest of it.

    When I read something that I think is 90% correct and useful, I look for ways to narrow down that remaining 10%. Even in this NBL realm of carrying the bad news to people who would prefer we didn’t.

    Boy, if a species WANTED to commit suicide, it couldn’t have gone at it more fanatically than this one. (Wasn’t there a Chinese guy soon after the invention of gunpowder who thought he could fly by sitting on a keg of explosive and lighting it?)

    This lecture on “Climate Wars” I’m listening to this morning is very interesting on several fronts.

  • @ Henry

    http://www.kentchemistry.com/links/Energy/HeatFusion.htm

    The heat of fusion for water is 334 joules/gram. There are 4.164 joules/calorie. So it takes 79.8 calories to melt 1 gram of ice, but only one calorie/gram to heat liquid water 1 degree Celsius. So it really does take 80X as much energy to raise water from 0 degrees C. to 1 degree C., than from 1 degree C. to 2 degrees C.

    Best Wishes

  • Gee, I wonder if anyone got around to telling “The Issacs”, that the true believers in 1844 were “Ready to Go” too?

  • @provost, I am touched,sincerely. Bizzare and psychotic. After my initial elation at such an edifying description of my posts I immediately began to worry that you have now set the bar to high even for me to attain. I have always known I was slightly to moderately psychotic. My best friend says that moderate to severe psychosis would be more accurate. But what would he Know? He is a gun toting anti-government extremist with an fbi file longer than mine. @robin, Good to see you have elevated to anarchism. “anarchy is founded on the observation that most men cannot rule themselves so how could they possibly rule others” and ” the corporate state attracts the worse and corrupts the best” edward abbey The next step is to completely free yourself from the patriarchy narrative and study matriarchal culture.almost every person at nbl is still dominated by the patriarchal worldview that humans are genetically predisposed to be hopelessly violent. More patriarch crap!!! There are 100s of pre- european cultures in north america that never saw it necessary to completely annihilate every living thing in their path. When europeans arrived here there where no prison or police. And only the most sick and psychotic would embed rape at the core of their cultural narrative. Just a few examples; aquisitiveness is a sickness of the white man,sitting bull. the lokota men had no say over the first 8 yrs of life of their young sons because man has to be taught to love where as a woman was born to love. Sexual assault cannot be translated into okonogan. the only translation close to that is “he looked at me wrong” In nez perce, leaders where groomed from an early age to be selfless leaders. In that culture certain women where groomed to advise the leading men. They where called hat women. nez perce were horrified with the plow thinking it sacreligiuos to stick a plow in the bosom of mother earth.Jared diamond states that the plow was the most destructive invention of humanity. In apache grandma had the last say on every decision affecting the community. Son in law in apache translates to “the one who carries my burden”. Apaches were disgusted with white man gold.That you would dig in mother earth for personal ornamentation was unthinkable. In haida gwaii mayor translates into “town mother” At potlucks powerful men gained status by seeing who could give away the most. Competetive giving was the great marker of community gatherings. Crazy horse routinely gave away everything gained in battle because warrior prowess would be tainted by aquisitiveness.I could go on and on especially about apache. Where they perfect, NO. where the far more culturally advanced than wealthy whitey and not so wealthy whitey? Most decidedly!

  • Feed Jake —

    Thank you. That is the simple physics as we know it, as incredible as it first may sound to us. I can see how much it has impressed you. This is probably why Guy delivers it with such relish.

    As I said, further study is needed to satisfy my lack of understanding. Then the process of reasoning from the particular to the general may be better carried out. Reasoning by analogy is useful, if at the same time you look for the exceptions to your quick conclusions. At present, I am not qualified, which is why I ask for assistance.

    Down at the end of my street, Puget Sound waters are 48 degrees Fahrenheit throughout the winter. At the end of a long and mostly sunny Summer of 16 hour sunshine, much of it directly overhead, they are 49 degrees Fahrenheit. Divers who explore the beautiful undersea worlds off of nearby docks require wetsuits to prevent hypothermia.

    Despite my own possible normalcy bias, these are facts.

    There is no ice in these waters at present. And yet, year after year, these waters do not boil away. What am I missing here?

    Could we surmise that large bodies of water act differently than glasses of water on a classroom lectern? But how, and why?

    (Oh, that’s right. They have something called “depth”. They are three-dimensional. Might this make a difference?)

    On the other hand, the situation in the Arctic waters and atmosphere is so extreme and unprecedented, and thus normal waters like those near me cannot explain too much about this, just suggest what should normally be happening in a sun-and-water situation.

    Also, as I recall, much of the ESAS methane is under the shelf at several hundred meters depth, and influenced by factors additional to warming (seismic disturbance, water turbulence, chemical changes?) and so, at a minimum, you have to ask what is the rate of temperature change at those depths, as transmitted from above.

    Please refresh me on this, which I read several years back: The clathrate “cages” are chemical and/or physical enclosures of methane, and not just sub-zero ice cages?

    As said, further study needed, or at least a refresher, indeed.

    When I see Shakhova choke up with emotion, almost in tears, I am right there with her. Perhaps that is exactly what this human animal species needs to be doing more of, right now. Get out of their cars and cry.

  • I believe the melting ice would maintain the water temperature near the
    ice at close to 0°C. For sure, an iceberg in the middle of a large area of
    open ocean wouldn’t prevent the water far away from rising higher.

    The mixing of surface waters may be enough, though, to give a pretty
    dramatic hockey stick in temperature when the last bits of ice finally go.

    I’m talking through my ass here, but that’s what I remember from my
    PChem classes 🙂

  • @ Henry

    Without going into too much detail:
    1. The Arctic Ocean is small and shallow, so the cooling effects of ice are intensified.
    2. Open water absorbs sunlight, ice cover reflects sunlight.
    3. The conditions under which methane is contained (as clathrate) requires certain temperatures at certain pressures (this can all be looked up). Basically, a layer of clathrate and sediment hold in a much larger volume of gaseous methane below, which is a qas because of the earth’s internal heat. The shallowness of much of the Arctic Ocean makes any temperature increase more likely to trigger methane release (from clathrates or sediments). Much of the methane released remains dissolved in seawater and decomposed by bacteria. But field observations have confirmed increasing amounts reaching the surface.
    4. As the water continues to warm, it can hold less dissolved gases, so more methane will be released into the air.

    Finally, there is much confusion over the potential warming ability of methane, which has a half-life of seven years in the atmosphere. At very short timescales, methane can be considered as having 200X the heat-trapping ability of carbon dioxide. Over 20 years this declines to around 75X, and over 100 years declines to 25X.

    While more research is always needed (to slow down any possibility of remediation) the extreme divergence of the entire arctic from normal temperatures, especially last winter and this spring, indicate to me that methane is playing a major role in arctic climate change.

    http://phys.org/tags/methane/

    I hope this helps!

    Best Wishes

  • @ Henry Says: May 30th, 2016 at 11:48 am…

    “…
    As I said, further study is needed to satisfy my lack of understanding. Then the process of reasoning from the particular to the general may be better carried out. Reasoning by analogy is useful, if at the same time you look for the exceptions to your quick conclusions. At present, I am not qualified, which is why I ask for assistance.
    …”

    To further your study and reduce your lack of understanding, I suggest you search, in no particular order, using the expressions “ocean currents,” “deep ocean upwelling” and “Ekman transport.” The results from those searches, if attentively pursued, should answer your questions. Sapere aude!

  • Ken, Jake, Colin — (Apologies for #3 as we discuss content of the above essay.) Thanks for good points of elucidation, which I will try to refresh my thinking with, possibly offer new questions.

    If I could state my thoughts better, going back to my first impressions from Guy and Arctic News 4 years ago, the clathrates are mostly near the Siberian shore, and so the ice has already greatly pulled away from covering their waters.

    It now becomes more a matter of the temps and turmoil reaching downward to disturb them. Which is happening, at a pace that can only be accelerating, but is only in its beginning stages, thus the lack of extreme measurement. Nothing is there now or coming along to put a lid on these runaway processes.

    That’s why I wanted to de-dramatize the idea that the last melting ice in one particular September is like pushing the red button for nuclear launch. It is a marker point of the ramping up along a curve that is already happening, and at an accelerating pace. It is not a lot more causal on that one day than what is already happening today or any previous day. (Hundreds of thousands of square kilometers of ice extent disappearing. Shocking.)

    Some of it will refreeze with winter, less and less over ensuing years, and the deterioration of overall thickness and strength — melting from beneath — is as alarming as the loss of the extent. These are obvious points which seem to have no effect on public awareness. Sudden collapse, as on the order of an ice sheet in Antarctica, is made more and more possible.

    Getting people to parse the reality of acceleration, and second-order acceleration, in written prose on a website is like the bafflement described in those lectures on the exponential function.

    Maybe people who do not pay constant attention to this event need simple guideposts to string their NTE narrative together. It is hard enough to get nearly anyone to pay attention to the Arctic, or to Greenland. Forget Antarctica. I just want to speak out when I wonder if we can improve the communication.

    I could almost guarantee you that the NY Times will not headline the last ice melt the day after it happens. No reporters on boats. Page 19 for you, baby.

    Since I got here in 2012, Guy has added item after item to his feedbacks list, but I’ve always thought he did not need to go much beyond the sea and land-based methane, which most of them feed back into via warming and burning. Points of confirmation, less than causality.

    I haven’t had to study since that time much about all the different ways that the methane could come out. I just haven’t seen any way that it will not.

    I feel just a little bit like the editor cleaning up the punctuation on the obituary page.

  • I don’t understand the reason for this constant analysis of physics minutiae by what it appears to be are laypersons. The only way to get a somewhat firm grasp of these mechanical aspects of the natural world is to have the mind and discipline guy has. I don’t believe any of us have what it takes in either IQ or discipline. Meanwhile out on the olympic peninsula there is an unfolding myriad of 2 million shades of springreen.Trilliums,vanilla leaf,foamflower,red columbine,glacier lily,spring beauty,river violet,plumed soloman’s seal for your edification and esthetic indulgence with no phd required. Ancient needled beings stretching,towering into the blue.Varied thrush, pileated woodpecker,harlequin duck, merganser and the most powerful song from the small, river swimming ouzel. And if the gods are smiling on you maybe just maybe the haunting flute like notes of the hermit thrush filling the darkening woods as you drink malt liquor and inhale the lovely cannabis. At night big bear comes snuffing around your dark tent searching for forgotten morsels. And you know by only feeling some ancient visceral fear deep from within that the mountain lion is lurking in the shadows while you are alone….. on a distant mountain in an endless forest. Stop with the madness of this inward looking culture of intellectual analysis and let the soft part of your body know what it knows. And the you can become the mountain. >> All the birds have flown away…. The last cloud drifts across the sky… We settle down together….. Never tiring of each other… The mountain and I <<< Li Po

  • 1.’So it really does take 80X as much energy to raise water from 0 degrees C. to 1 degree C., than from 1 degree C. to 2 degrees C.’

    Let’s get it right.

    It takes 80 times as much energy to change 1 gram of ice at 0oC into water at 0oC as it takes to raise 1 gram of water from 0oC to 1oC.

    All other factors being equal, a given amount of energy would melt a particular mass of ice at 0oC or raise the same mass of cold water by 80oC. In practice it would be far more likely that the given amount of energy would raise cold water with a mass 800 times that of the ice by 0.1oC. Or raise 8,000 times as much cold water by 0.01oC.

    The concern is, of course, that higher greenhouse gas concentrations interfere with the radiation of energy into space, resulting in a higher equilibrium temperature being established, or in the case of the present predicament, equilibrium never being established because greenhouse gas concentrations continue upwards, in many cases by increasing annual margins, such as the 4.19 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 reported today.

    Daily CO2

    May 29, 2016: 407.92 ppm

    May 29, 2015: 403.73 ppm

    As has been pointed out many times, even if industrial emissions were to cease tomorrow the Earth’s average temperature would continue to rise because takes between years and centuries for the various major components of the system to reach equilibrium. (That is ignoring the Global Dimming factor.)

    Carrying on as we have, (and there appears to be no way to stop the maniacs who are at the helm) we will almost certainly break through 450 ppm atmospheric CO2 by 2025.

    2. The Japanese ice data site

    http://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html

    has been out of action for a couple of days.

    NSIDC indicates a slower rate of melting in recent days compared to average and 2012.

    https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

    3. I watch very little television but have access to it and have come across a station which provides some worthwhile content. One snippet that astonished me was that Britain imported 18 million tonnes of coal per annum through Immingham to keep its coal-fired power stations running. At the time the Coast documentary team was there a Russian coal ship with a largely Filipino crew was in port. Although I grew up in England and lived there until 1974 I had never heard of Immingham until yesterday. Yikes, how the world has changed [for the worse]:

    ‘The Port of Immingham is the UK’s largest port by tonnage, handling around 55 million tonnes.’

    http://www.abports.co.uk/Our_Locations/Humber/Immingham/

    4. It’s quite scary what some people ‘out there’ believe. I briefly got caught up in an email dialogue and was presented with this yesterday:

    ‘We disagree about what science might be. Since when is science the same as fact? Science is never fact….

    Physics is more BS.

    The three laws of thermodynamics are only true in a closed system, which doesn’t exist. There are no closed systems. So the basics of physics is crud, my friend.’

    I won’t bother to copy and paste my response here but it did include: ‘If you do not believe in the laws of physics and chemistry then presumably you do not believe in gravity or the ability to calculate the orbits of planets or the chemical basis for such things as combustion of petrol to cause engines to work, or the chemical basis for manufacture of integrated circuits used in computers etc. In effect your are saying that Kepler was wrong, that Einstein was wrong, and every other scientist who provided the basis for the society you live in was wrong.’

    5. Lake Mead has dropped to a new record low of below 1074 feet:

    http://mead.uslakes.info/level.asp

    6. Russia seems to be well prepared for war in case the maniacs in Washington are crazy enough to try it.

    http://www.unz.com/tsaker/how-russia-is-preparing-for-wwiii/

  • Thanks Henry, good video on violence. We don’t remember hunger.

    This next video presents the three best speakers for the collapse of civilization. They are:

    1.Claire Kremen who talks about Agricultural Conflict
    2.Solomon Hsiang who talks about Climate Stress And Political Conflict
    3.Malcolm Potts who talks about Population Conflict

    Claire Kremen, the first speaker, presents a powerful lecture as she strafes the listener with an overwhelming barrage of facts in the first few minutes before she goes full frontal anecdotal about a no-till farmer named Brandt (@ 18:32 ). She lays out a very strong case against corporate farming practices and the importance of small farms. What bothers me is that knowing what to do is not the same as actually doing it. Claire starts at 1:18 on the timeline.

    The second speaker, Solomon Hsiang, is extremely interesting albeit, after a few minutes explaining his methods. He compares a number of studies on crop, water and food stress and violence. He even shows a correlation between El Nino and unrest in South American states. It’s way well worth watching. He starts at 35:38 on the timeline.

    The 2 most important facts he quantifies are:
    1.Inter-personal violence increases 4% per standard deviation of climate change.
    2.Civil violence increases 10% per standard deviation of climate change.

    The third speaker, Malcolm Potts explains how a vast cohort of youth will descend upon cities looking for jobs that are not there and how this will lead to violence. He also explains very clearly that African fertility rates have more to do with Planned Parenthood than it does with education.

    The next is The Coming Age of Slaughter by Tim Snyder

    http://newrepublic.com/article/78207/global-warming-genocide

  • Some interesting banter back and forth, at Sea Ice Forum about this article.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015EF000301/full
    Considering thermal-viscous collapse of the Greenland ice sheet
    William Colgan, Aleah Sommers, Harihar Rajaram, Waleed Abdalati, Joel Frahm

    http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,154.1550.html

    Thread is about Jakobshavn glacier but extends much further afield in Greenland, especially in reference to the semi recent radar bedrock stratigraphy artcles and “movies” in 2915. And of course if it is applicable in Greenland now, well then there is Totten to consider in Antarctica in the coming decades. (unless of course if you believe the tree does not fall if all homos are gone – then it never happens).

    quote and a nested quote of quote.

    “Ultimately, it is the tremendous difference between the latent heat of fusion of water (3.34 × 10 5 J/kg) and the specific heat capacity of ice (2.01 × 10 3 J/kg/K), which means even a trace meltwater volume can act as a potent heat source in the ice sheet energy equation. One kilogram of refreezing meltwater releases sufficient energy to warm 100 kg of ice by ∼1.6 K, corresponding to a decrease in effective viscosity of ∼11% [Paterson, 1994].”

    That refreeze is a titanic transfer of heat. How titanic ?

    “As stated above, a year 2100 meltwater runoff anomaly of 700 Gt/a is equivalent to a latent energy anomaly of 2.34 × 10^20 J/a, which is more than an order of magnitude greater than the energy delivery rate required for partial thermal-viscous collapse over four centuries.”

    Gt/a is gigaton per annum. Recall that Greenland mass loss in 2012 was 474 Gt, and Enderlin et seq. establish that SMB (aka melt) is now dominant. So how much sticks around and dont run off to sea ?
    No good guess yet, but some.

    “In the virtually flat interior of the Greenland ice sheet, bedrock slope often exceeds 11 times surface slope (Figure 4). In the best-surveyed regions of the ice sheet, with the least uncertainty in bed topography, equipotential theory suggests widespread areas where englacial and subglacial water flow is primarily governed by bedrock topography. Given that the interior bed of the ice sheet is depressed below sea level, meltwater introduced to the subglacial network sufficiently far inland should theoretically exhibit a tendency to flow to bedrock sink points in the ice sheet interior. Such reverse drainage and collection behavior has been modeled for smaller ice caps [Flowers et al., 2005]. Recent observations of discrete refrozen basal ice masses confirm that subglacial water can be routed inland toward relatively cold sink points in the ice sheet interior where it refreezes [Bell et al., 2014]. Although considerable uncertainty exists in the precise origin of this refrozen water (i.e., whether surface meltwater, basal meltwater, or ocean water), these observations suggest that nontrivial reverse drainage and interior refreezing do occur under contemporary climate.”

    end of copied text from post 1574 in Re: Jakobshavn Isbræ / Ilulissat Isfjord / West Greenland

    I wrote this up last night, but I sometimes put things away, for a day. I skimmed some of the melt stuff, will look at it more tonight. And tomorrow, an extra 4 hours getting paid to be with a friend in the hospital. If you think it sucks getting old, add Downs dementia into the mix.

    Wow, saw goslings of Canadian geese on May 5th crossing road with mom and dad. Rhubarb that had bolted on May 20th. And that first night having a cigarette and seeing the sliver of the moon was red again, this time from Alberta and not SK. The moon was that tint last year for Womens FIFA here was in late June, fires are a month earlier this year.

    Look up while you still can.

  • Henry,

    Yes, the Natalia Shakova video…. I have watched it about 20 times… and I have shown it to a few other people… especially that part. I also noticed how she is over come with emotion. If that is not saying something… I do not know what is.

  • @ Elroy Hubbard, Spread the word. Stay home ditch work, spend no money except on essentials. Talk to your neighbors, take a walk, fix something for someone or help a stranger for no pay. SHUT IT DOWN the movement is you and me…….

  • @ Kevin Moore
    Thanks for the correction! It is O degrees C. to 0 degrees C.

    Best Wishes


  • @Jens

    ” How dare you to laugh at the death of one of my comrades, a voluntary firefighter , during these catastrophic rainfalls in Germany.
    You moan for the thousands who drown in the mediteranian sea right now but you find it somehow amusing that a man, who tried to save another human, died ?”

    How dare are you putting shit into my mouth I never said ?! Man, you are in the wrong movie I guess^^ I suggest you maybe improve your reading skills. I just invited those at NBL, who are repeating to say that they wish to see civilization SHUT DOWN, you know. Well, these guys can enjoy that in parts of southern Germany now:

    Destruction, deconstruction of civilization.

    I guess, only those can wish to see civilization shut down, who never experienced, how it might feel like. Maybe these guys will see civilization shut down sooner than they might realize or wish for.

    But anyway, thanks a lot for sharing your grief about the victims of climate change in Germany with me, thanks a lot, man, I am with you. What we see now in southern Germany is just the beginning. Much more is to come soon.

    ” And for Africa ?
    The moors invaded spain, the american-african slave trade would have been imposible without native tribes who caught the slaves in the first place, the Liberian Disaster !”

    Muhahaha, man, you better learn shit about history:

    ” The wealth of the west was built on Africa’s exploitation”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2005/aug/20/past.hearafrica05

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploitation_colonialism

    http://revealinghistories.org.uk/legacies-stereotypes-racism-and-the-civil-rights-movement/articles/the-ongoing-exploitation-of-africa.html

    http://exhibitions.nypl.org/africanaage/essay-colonization-of-africa.html

    ” Don’t play this blame game, poor refugees, guilty western industrial civilisation. It’s always poor against rich, strong against weak, uneducated against informed. “

    Ah well, don’t worry, Mother Nature gives a shit about rich and poor- soon we will surely be equal totally and, yeah, I REALLY like that. You too? 🙂 And the european refugee crisis is just at it’s beginning:

    ” 2.5.2016 – Climate-exodus expected in the Middle East and North Africa”

    http://phys.org/news/2016-05-climate-exodus-middle-east-north-africa.html

    Good luck everyone 🙂

  • I’ve posted a plethora of new information. You can catch it all here.

  • @Nemesis

    you posted a YT vid of floating cars in a southern german village knowing full well that people died in those floodwaves jet you felt the need to muhahaha.
    I don’t deny that the wealth of europe is built on the exploitation of Africa.
    I just reject the notion that if our ancestors wouldn’t have done it others wouldn’t have done it aswell if they had the means to do it.
    Yeah, a lot of ifs and would haves, but history is full of conquest and enslavement of humans and the biosphere.
    The white european just had upper hand and played it well.
    And for history ?
    My guess is the chinese built the great wall against bad and evil white europrans, didn’t they ?
    All the best


  • @Jens

    Believe whatever you prefer to believe. I corrected your interpretation of my comment and said that it was adressed to those guys at NBL who want to see the Apokalypse and civilization shut down as soon as possible. So, to correct you once again:

    To me, all human beings and all animals are my sisters and brothers, therefore I don’t accept people, you want to see humans go extinct as soon as possible or who want to see civilization shut down.

    ” I just reject the notion that if our ancestors wouldn’t have done it others wouldn’t have done it aswell IF they had the means to do it.”

    That kind of notion is ignorant and sneaky at best, but it fits very well to your kind of speculation-based attack against me resp. my comment. Man, get yourself together:

    What does that mean, IF, IF, IF?! It means NOTHING at all. You could speculate “what if” about almost EVERYTHING. What if the US wouldn’t have landed on the moon? Would the Koisan from the african Sahara Desert have done it, IF they would have built rockets ?! Would Doctor Guy McPherson have worked for ExxonMobile, IF he didn’t would have studied ecology and started to think for himself later on ?! Whould you have robbed that old lady that had been robbed yesterday, IF not anybody else had done it already ?! You see:

    This kind of sneaky “if” stories don’t make any sense whatsover.

    Best wishes and thanks for the conversation.


  • Correction:

    “I don’t accept people, you want to see humans go extinct…”

    “I don’t accept people, WHO want to see humans go extinct…”

  • .
    @Jens, you said …

    “The white european just had upper hand and played it well.”

    Interesting the way you excuse and even seem to be admiring brutal and psychopathic behavior there.

    And you ‘rejecting’ something does not a fact make … yours is merely an opinion, and I think it’s a trained seal’s opinion at that.

    I think people like you are just trying to shirk accountability, now that your self claimed superior way of life has suddenly blown all up in your faces. It’s actually quite a common reaction to guilt, to shirk and deny. I can probably even predict what country you’re from, just by your remarks and your attitude.

    …played it well … now I find that to be an extremely offensive remark … by you.

    No remorse there at all it would seem, just romance. I think you’re the one out to lunch here Jens.

    Yeah, a lot of ifs and would haves, but history is full of conquest and enslavement of humans and the biosphere.

    Are you sure your empire schoolbooks weren’t just saying that to brainwash you? It seems to have worked.

    Are all the commenters here white American geriatric males? It sure seems that way to me sometimes by the comments here. The indigenous peoples were not the brutal psychopaths … YOU WERE! Get it fuckin’ straight already. I’m tired of hearing Americans make excuses for themselves, and tired of hearing them whine about what they themselves caused too. A lot of shirking of responsibility goes on here regarding that … the American’s role in forcing infinite growth capitalism onto the rest of the world. It’s pathetic. Talk about no accountability whatsoever.

    Can’t you see the brainwash there? To say, ‘oh … it was us first, or it would have just been them first … everyone is the same as us.’ Bullshit. Are all Americans truly this steeped in their own myopic bullshit and that stupid? You could go to work for empire spewing that kind of apologetic colonial BS.

    Arp, arp, arp …