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{"id":16803,"date":"2018-05-14T05:48:51","date_gmt":"2018-05-14T11:48:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/guymcpherson.com\/?p=16803"},"modified":"2024-05-21T09:01:27","modified_gmt":"2024-05-21T13:01:27","slug":"edge-of-extinction-prediction-vs-projection-exemplified","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guymcpherson.com\/edge-of-extinction-prediction-vs-projection-exemplified\/","title":{"rendered":"Edge of Extinction: Prediction vs. Projection, Exemplified"},"content":{"rendered":"

Further clarification<\/strong>: My prediction of human extinction by 2026, which is based on my interpretation of near-term future temperature rise, does not project into the future based solely upon prior data. Sam Carana sometimes uses projection of extant trends to predict future temperature, often using the exponential function. My prediction is based upon the combination of several contributors to temperature rise, rather than extrapolation from existing data into the future.<\/p>\n

Neither projection nor prediction is inherently more accurate. A prediction can be evaluated only upon passage of the date of the prediction.<\/p>\n

<\/iframe><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Further clarification: My prediction of human extinction by 2026, which is based on my interpretation of near-term future temperature rise, does not project into the future based solely upon prior data. Sam Carana sometimes uses projection of extant trends to predict future temperature, often using the exponential function. My prediction is based upon the combination…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"post_series":[],"class_list":["post-16803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","entry","no-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/guymcpherson.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16803","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/guymcpherson.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/guymcpherson.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guymcpherson.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guymcpherson.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16803"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/guymcpherson.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16803\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33481,"href":"https:\/\/guymcpherson.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16803\/revisions\/33481"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/guymcpherson.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guymcpherson.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guymcpherson.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16803"},{"taxonomy":"post_series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/guymcpherson.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_series?post=16803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}