A Frightening Year May be in Store

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A Frightening Year May be in Store

by J. Z. Colby

NEBADOR Book Ten is almost out the door, with a novella by me and three new short stories by insightful and talented young adults.  With that nearly done, I plan to pay more attention to, and write more about, the present.  According to most data sources, we are now 12 months into a series of monthly global temperature records.  The data sources that don’t quite agree are only slightly different, such as one or two of those months being the second hottest on record.

The 2015 El Niño is reported to be fading, but that may not be all that made 2015 the hottest year on record.  As each new month that passes sets a new temperature record for that month, I begin to suspect that the El Niño was the least of our worries.

On 16 May 2016 I posted the following change to my Future Timeline:

PERMAFROST THAW AND BOREAL BURN was moved from the 2021-2025 group to the current year, retaining the question mark for now, as it looks like the current temperature spike is continuing, and will NOT fade with the current El Niño. Like the CORAL COLLAPSE item, this will probably follow from an ice-free Arctic, and if it comes to pass, could cause the METHANE SPIKE to occur sooner than it otherwise would have. Last year’s boreal forest fires in Russia, and this year’s in Canada, may be just a small taste of what is to come in our vast northern forests and tundra.

So that leaves the current year looking like this on my Timeline:

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ANTHROPOCENE: The naming of a new geological epoch (defined by human influence) is in the process of formal acceptance, as it has now been confirmed to be stratigraphically distinct in rock and ice layers. Its beginning point will most likely be considered the middle of the 20th century, as radioactive fallout is one of its distinct stratigraphic markers, along with aluminum and plastics.

ARCTIC SUMMERS ICE-FREE: The Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free in the summer, greatly increasing the amount of solar heat absorbed, marking the beginning of run-away global heating.

FINANCIAL COLLAPSE: Stock markets and other financial venues become unstable or crash completely, causing credit to be unavailable to most people and businesses.

CORAL COLLAPSE: With the oceans rapidly heating and acidifying, the death of the coral reefs causes many coastlines to suddenly become vulnerable to fierce storms and floods.

PERMAFROST THAW AND BOREAL BURN: The tundra around the Arctic thaws, and the boreal forests of Canada and Russia burn, creating massive new sources of soot, Carbon dioxide, and Methane.

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As you can probably guess, my take on the timing of future events is very similar to Dr. McPherson’s.  And if things are going to get as serious in the 2030s as he and I believe, then we shouldn’t be surprised if they start getting ugly very soon.

And also as a psychologist and therapist, I join Guy in encouraging people to use this situation to bring out the best in us, do whatever we do as well as we can, and never forget to honor/love/respect any person, indeed any creature, who is brought to us by the mysterious forces of the universe.  I will be taking on the training, this year, of one or two new young adults (and in some ways their parents and siblings) who want to face the coming years “standing on their own two feet.”

My complete Future Timeline can be seen at http://www.nebador.com/Future.html