Science Snippets: For Sale: Habitable Planet. Too Late.

 

AVID Audio Course Description (Conservation Biology)

 

 

Latest Peer-Reviewed Journal Article:

McPherson, Guy R., Beril Sirmack, and Ricardo Vinuesa. March 2022. Environmental thresholds for mass-extinction events. Results in Engineering (2022), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2022.100342.

 

Draft script:

According to legend, Ernest Hemingway bet his 1920s-era colleagues he could write a complete story in just six words. Hemingway is said to have considered the resulting piece his best work: “For Sale: Baby Shoes, Never Worn.”

Making no attempt to keep up with Hemingway, this short video provides an overview of the dire climate-change situation in fewer than a dozen minutes. Perhaps even Twitter users will find time to view the entire video. In addition to pointing out the existential risk we face, I also point out how we might respond.

According to several peer-reviewed papers by professor Tim Garrett at the University of Utah, civilization is a heat engine. Maintaining industrial civilization, regardless how it is powered, contributes to an overheated planet. Indeed, maintaining industrial civilization contributes to a never-ending rise in planetary temperature. Photovoltaic solar panels and wind turbines offer no way out. Again, with feeling: Civilization is a heat engine!

Taken alone, this evidence suggests that worldwide economic collapse offers the only means by which we can prevent runaway greenhouse. However, we have triggered dozens of self-reinforcing feedback loops. As a result, it’s too late to dodge the missile launched by industrial civilization. In addition, stopping or slowing industrial activity invokes the loss of aerosol masking, as I have mentioned many times in this space based on peer-reviewed evidence. The associated, very rapid heating of the planet indicates there is no way out. We have doomed ourselves to extinction.

How bad is it? Well, we have not merely doomed our own species to extinction as a result of loss of habitat. We are taking all life on Earth with us, into the abyss. The very rapid rate of environmental change in the wake of our near-term extinction is sufficient to cause the extinction of all life on Earth, again based on abundant evidence I have reluctantly presented in this space. That’s not all, though.

As I have reported previously in this space, we absolutely must safely decommission all the world’s hundreds of nuclear power facilities if we are to avoid taking all life on Earth down with us. The uncontrolled meltdown of nuclear power plants will cause the resulting ionizing radiation to strip away stratospheric ozone, therefore causing extremely rapid heating of the surface of Earth. Even the writers of the 2021 film Finch understood this phenomenon, as was displayed in the film. The stunningly rapid rate of overheating of Earth’s surface as a result of the loss of stratospheric ozone presents the worst-case scenario with respect to the inability of life to adapt.

Collapse of the world’s industrial economy is under way. I see no way to prevent its completion in time to safely decommission the world’s hundreds of nuclear power plants. After all, at least one decade is required to decommission a single nuclear facility. More realistically, at least five decades are needed to decommission a single nuclear facility. With this in mind, we need to (1) decommission all nuclear power facilities very quickly, (2) develop and implement a plan to safely store many tons of radioactive waste, and (3) reverse many irreversible climate-change feedback loops. I’m not optimistic.

Lest the reader conclude I’m promoting the idea of giving up, let me be clear: I have developed the idea of Planetary Hospice, and I continue to support the associated concepts. As the first step in the implementation of Planetary Hospice, I suggest viewing our lives in the context of three categories: 1) family and friends; 2) community; and 3) society. I recognize that this three-category system is overly simplistic. I also recognize that these three categories overlap. They nonetheless offer a starting point from which we can ponder our roles in life, as well as our acts. Such self-examination is worthy, as well as painful.

At the level of family and friends, I have suggested during various interviews and essays at guymcpherson.com that we treat everyone near us as we would treat our beloved, elderly grandmother. Respect and honesty are key components of such behavior. Imagine the disappointment of your grandmother if she discovers you have lied to her … and she always discovers the lie. Imagine her disappointment when you disrespect her in other ways.

With potential disappointment in mind, how will you treat everyone around you? Will you respect people as you expect them to respect you? Again, with feeling: Will you respect people as you expect them to respect you?  That’s quite a tongue twister. Will you approach every conversation with full honesty, or will you hide certain facts? Would you disrespect your beloved grandmother? Would you lie to her, even by omission?

How we act at the level of community poses greater challenges than our actions at the level of family and close friends. How shall we contribute to our community? If we believe it takes a community to raise a child, then does it make sense to contribute positively to our community? If so, then shall we work to terminate racism, misogyny, and other forms of injustice?

Obviously, working to improve our communities falls into the large category of “easier said than done.” We all want to benefit from living in a community that respects all its members (especially us, of course). By what steps can we take to get from a civilization characterized by rampant misogyny, racism, and monetary disparity to a community devoid of these undesirable traits?

I can think of a few steps we can take. I encourage you to think of many more. If we fail, please let us fail together.

We can work daily to minimize, or even eliminate, misogyny. We can point it out when we see it. We can develop policies in our schools, churches, and other common spaces that strive to recognize and eliminate misogyny. We can do the same with respect to racism and monetary disparity.

Moving beyond policies and their implementation, we can spend time in the streets cleaning up our ugly messes. We can speak with those less fortunate than ourselves. We can listen to them. We can learn what they need. We can attempt to fulfill their needs. We can prepare food and give it to the houseless among us. We can pay for the education of those in poverty.

I strongly suspect misogyny, racism, and monetary disparity have been defining elements of every civilization so far. Ridding global industrial civilization of these undesirable attributes poses a daunting challenge at which I doubt we succeed. Taking on such a challenge, in the face of seemingly impossible odds, can be a measure of our character. Why take on the fight if the battle is easy? What better measure of our character than how we act in the face of impossible odds? Instead, let us undertake the greatest of challenges despite the longest of odds.

At the level of society, there is very little any of us can do. However, I can think of one job that is worth our collective attention. There may be others. Working to cask and contain nuclear material represents one of our duties as planetary citizens. Leaving in our wake more than 450 nuclear reactors and more than 1,200 pools of “spent” nuclear fuel has the potential to destroy all life on Earth, as I already mentioned. I can imagine no greater obligation than cleaning up the worst of our messes as we exit the planetary stage. Even if this task proves impossible, as I suspect it will, taking it on demonstrates our worthiness as the last individuals of our species.

I do not desire near-term human extinction. But the evidence has overwhelmed me, while others are deep in denial or busily bargaining. Invoking the absence of authorities who agree with me, rather than the authoritative evidence I cite, many people conclude I’m surely mistaken. I’m wishing they’re correct.

I know few ways to even explain we’re headed for near-term human extinction, much less develop and implement reasonable responses. I recognize that there are more than eight billion responses to the increasingly dire information. I choose to dive into the abyss with eyes wide open, playing court jester along the way. Your mileage may vary.