The video embedded below, along with the draft script and supporting links, can be freely…
Science Snippets: Peak Fossil Fuels
Latest peer-reviewed journal article appears in the prestigious Elsevier series of journals:
McPherson, Guy R., Beril Sirmack, and Ricardo Vinuesa. March 2022. Environmental thresholds for mass-extinction events. Results in Engineering (2022), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2022.100342.
Full text:
When the head of the conservative International Energy Agency admits we are in the midst of the “first truly global energy crisis,” then you know we’re in serious trouble. According to the chief of the International Energy Agency—the IEA—that’s the current situation. The story was published by Reuters on 25 October 2022.
Let’s turn back the clock a bit. According to the IEA, the extraction of conventional oil for the world peaked in 2006. Conventional oil refers to crude plus condensate, and it’s the relatively easy oil to extract and refine. The tough stuff comes next, which is why we have been rabidly pursuing shale and other petrochemicals that have a low energy return on investment, often called EROI. It comes as no surprise that 16 years after the conservative IEA concluded we had passed the peak of crude-plus-condensate, the most important element in the history of industrial civilization, we have similarly, and in a much worse state, passed the peak of all oil. All, as in the whole shebang.
According to the headline of a story published on January 15th, 2021 by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Fossil fuel production expected to increase through 2022 but remain below 2019 peak.” Of course, the US EIA is referring to extraction, not production. It’s not as if humans are producing oil. Oil is not ice cream, after all. Even though we do not produce oil, we’re doing a great job sucking it out of the bowels of the planet and turning it into gasoline, diesel, and other energy-rich materials that make our lives easier. In any event, the important part of this story is that the US Energy Information Administration is admitting that total oil has peaked in the US, including all that nasty stuff that’s difficult to find and extract.
Obviously, it’s not only the United States of Distract-and-Divide that has peaked with respect to oil. According to the chief of the International Energy Agency, world oil has also peaked. That’s all oil. All, as in the whole shebang. Here’s one of many headlines indicating how bad the situation has become: “The diesel market is in a perfect storm as prices surge, supply dwindles ahead of winter.” That’s from CNBC on 30 October 2022. The story indicates that refineries on the east coast of the US are operating at maximum capacity, yet reserves have not been this low since 1951.
Some people watching this video have undoubtedly been influenced by the many liars at Dumb Green Resistance, or by other people promoting the insanity of “degrowth.” If you’re interested in ratcheting up planetary heating as quickly as possible, and thereby accelerating the ongoing Mass Extinction Event, then reducing industrial activity is the path for you. Loss of aerosol masking is the fastest path to destroying all life on Earth, as I’ve mentioned a few hundred times in this space. Specifically, according to a paper in the peer-reviewed Nature Communications on 15 June 2021, loss of aerosol masking due to cessation of industrial activity will cause a global-average rise in temperature of 55%. This will occur in about 5 days, according to professor James Hansen in many interviews and presentations. We have already passed the 2 C Rubicon, according to renowned professor Andrew Glikson in his October 9th, 2020 book, The Event Horizon. The abstract to chapter 5 in Glikson’s book includes this line: “greenhouse gas forcing has risen by more than 2.0 Watts per meter squared, equivalent to more than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures …”
We need not cease all industrial activity to overheat the planet beyond our ability to adapt and therefore survive. A peer-reviewed paper written by Hiram Levy II and six other colleagues indicated that as little as a 35% reduction in emissions will trigger a 1-degree C global-average rise in temperature. That paper was published nearly a decade ago, on 27 May 2013 in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. It was undoubtedly written well over a decade ago. Subsequent research, about which I’ve talked often in this space, indicates the conservative nature of these findings: As little as a 20% decrease in industrial activity will trigger sufficient loss of aerosol masking to cause the rapid loss of habitat for human animals on Earth. Indeed, regionaldecreases in industrial activity have already caused increased heating andprecipitation in many locations throughout the world, as reported in several peer-reviewed papers. A glance at my earlier work in this space will provide the details, if you’re interested.
We have already passed the 2 C Rubicon, which never mattered anyway. The whole point of keeping planetary heating below 2 C was to prevent the initiation of self-reinforcing feedback loops. But these so-called tipping points were triggered, as expected, many years ago. The predecessor to the IPCC, the Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases, warned about passing 1 C above the 1750 baseline in October 1985. Climate writer and speaker David Spratt indicated via presentation in October 2014 that these self-reinforcing feedback loops were triggered at 0.5 C above the 1750 baseline. The IPCC finally admitted an overheated ocean was responsible for irreversible climate change with its 24 September 2019 report, IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. That was more than 3 years ago. I haven’t heard a peep about it from the corporate media during the last 3 years. It only takes one self-reinforcing feedback loop to ensure the irreversibility of climate change. I’ve documented a few dozen so-called tipping points in my “Climate-Change Summary” at guymcpherson dot com. I’ve added more in my recent peer-reviewed papers.
Nearly a billion people were hungry in 2021. As I pointed out last week in this space, we are in the midst of a global hunger crisis. Earth continues to overheat beyond the ability of our species, and many others, to adapt. Earth has been in the midst of a Mass Extinction Eventfor many years, as pointed out by the man called “The Father of Diversity,” E.O. Wilson in his 1992 book, The Diversity of Life.
There is no positive end in sight for the ongoing Mass Extinction Event with respect to life on Earth, in part because the current event is proceeding at a rate of change unprecedented in planetary history. The IPCC reached that conclusion in its 8 October 2018 report, Global Warming of 1.5 Degrees with this line, referring to geophysical or biosphere forces that have altered the Earth System trajectory in the past: “even abrupt geophysical events do not approach current rates of human-driven change.” In other words, the political body known as the IPCC admitted more than four years ago that we are in the midst of the fastest rate of environmental change in planetary history, yet I never read or hear about this phenomenon from the corporate media.
Vertebrates cannot keep up with projected rates of change, as I’ve pointed out previously in this space. Mammals cannot keep up, either, as I’ve also pointed out in this space. The vertebrate mammals known as Homo sapiens soon will join the other species in the genus Homo that have already gone extinct, of which there are at least eight.
The denial from the masses is overwhelming, based on the misinformation presented by the corporate media, paid climate scientists, and government officials. Please join me in promulgating evidence. Hiding the evidence underlying abrupt, irreversible climate change leading to human extinction is no solution. We all have the right to know about our terminal condition.
Again, I suggest Planetary Hospice as a positive way forward, and I ask you to join me. Doing so will not make you financially wealthy. It might bring joy to the people around you, thereby also bringing joy to you. If there is a better outcome to pursue during the time of abrupt, irreversible climate change, I cannot imagine what it is.