Science Update: One Plus One Equals Too Far Gone

AVID Audio Course Description (Conservation Biology)

Latest Peer-Reviewed Journal Article:

McPherson, Guy R., Beril Sirmack, and Ricardo Vinuesa. March 2022. Environmental thresholds for mass-extinction events. Results in Engineering (2022), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2022.100342.

Draft script:

Mark C. Urban is director of the Center of Biological Risk and a professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Connecticut. He published a one-page article in Scienceon February 14th, 2010 titled “Life without ice.”Sciencewas first published in 1880. It is the premier publication of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Ask any informed natural scientist about the two most reputable peer-reviewed journals in the world, and they’ll tell you that Natureand Sciencelead the pack.

In Urban’s paper from February 14th, 2020, he writes the following: “The sea ice is now 40% smaller than it was 40 years ago, and the remaining ice is younger, thinner, and more temporary. Arctic summers could become mostly ice-free in 30 years, and possibly sooner if current trends continue.”

More about the continuation of those current trends shortly.

Urban continues: “Once dark water replaces brilliant ice, Earth could warm substantially, equivalent to the warming triggered by the additional release of a trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.”

Please think about that for a moment. A trillion tons of carbon dioxide is more than 25 times what Earth’s atmosphere currently holds. Interestingly, the response from a social media outlet that relies almost exclusively on anonymous comments, has me called a grifter for presenting this information. I’m quoting directly from a journal commonly considered to be among the top two peer-reviewed sources in the world, and that makes me a grifter. No, it doesn’t. Rather, it makes the anonymous person who posted the comment a misinformed idiot.

Think about it. My primary source of income is a monetized YouTube channel. As a result, I gain nothing by lying or exaggerating. The donations and Memberships comprising my income depend completely upon me maintaining my integrity.

“Humans have only ever lived in a world topped by ice. Can we now work together to protect Arctic ecosystems, keep the northern peace, and allow the sea ice to return?”

Well, that would surprise me very much. It’s a little late in the game to tackle the most important question in the history of our species, and I’ve seen no interest in the potentially, planet-saving MEER-Reflection framework. It’s been around for about five years, and no billionaires have stepped forward. Neither have any governments. You can read about the MEER-Reflection framework at MEER.org. That’s M E E R dot org. Feel free to pass along that information to everybody you know. And please hurry.

So, then. Onto those trends from the paper in Science written by professor Mark C. Urban. He wrote: “Arctic summers could become mostly ice-free in 30 years, and possibly sooner if current trends continue.”

Professor James Anderson, the Harvard atmospheric scientist who famously discovered the link between chlorofluorocarbons and the so-called hole over Antarctica, delivered a presentation in Chicago in January 2018. After the presentation, he was quoted by Forbesin a story released on January 15th, 2018: “The chance there will be permanent ice in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero.”

Professor Jennifer MacKinnon works at the University of California, San Diego and at the Scripps Institution, a branch of the Scripps Institute. She was interviewed by CBS Newson April 23rd, 2021, upon release of a paper she lead-authored in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Communications.At that time, she said she expected an ice-free Arctic Ocean last year, or perhaps this year.

I’ve reported and included links to these stories a few times in this space. Using the search box at guymcpherson dot com will lead to relevant information. Neither the story in Forbes from January 2018 nor the story in CBS News in April 2021 indicated the slightest bit of urgency from professors Anderson and MacKinnon. I have no idea whether Anderson and MacKinnon are familiar with the evidence foretelling the urgency of the situation. Perhaps those parts of the interview didn’t survive the editorial process. In any event, the published interviewers with these two renowned professors who were, and are, familiar with atmospheric science, did not indicate the gravity of the situation.

Professor Mark C. Urban at the University of Connecticut has expressed considerable urgency with his paper in the February 14th, 2020 issue of Science. Urban is an ecologist, and he clearly understands the importance of the rate of environmental change. However, he’s apparently unfamiliar with the scholarship pointing to an ice-free Arctic Ocean later this year. Personally, I’ll be paying close attention to the 6-month ensemble forecast produced by the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School during early April. It will provide a very reliable indication either supporting the views of professors Anderson and MacKinnon, or not. Not is my very strong preference.