I’m going to ramp up the Speculator™ with this post, notwithstanding the pathetic failure of my short-term prediction for the week just ended. Seems all my wishful thinking won’t push the teetering industrial economy over the cliff. I’m sure there’s a lesson here, but — in classic American style — I’ll pretend there’s not.
Occasionally when people talk to me about my new life in and around the mud hut, their conclusions include one of the following statements: (1) You’re selfishly wasting your talent as an excellent and inspiring teacher. You should be teaching at the university, saving students, instead of preparing for economic collapse. (2) Don’t be silly. The United States cannot suffer economic collapse.
My responses go something like this:
As I’ve said and written too many times to count, the Greatest Depression is just getting started. The stock markets have experienced a bear-market rally analogous to the 48 percent rally of 1929-1930. But contemporary unemployment figures indicate serious structural damage to the industrial economy, and even mainstream pundits have started to figure it out: “Most of the jobs lost will never come back.”
Duh.
As we pass from the industrial age to the post-carbon era, the mantra of real-estate agents comes to mind. But the important factor isn’t so much “location, location, location” as “community, community, community.” The latter can be created in any location. Well, except for those locations the United States bombs into the stone age. It’s tough to build community when the U.S. military is carpet-bombing the ‘hood.
If you’re paying attention to forecasts in the blogosphere, you’ve no doubt seen James Howard Kunstler’s projections for 2009. As always, Kunstler’s writing is humorous and provocative. The forecast is a bit vague and bloated, but we’re halfway to the Dow 4,000 Kunstler predicted more than a year ago we’d hit by the end of 2009.